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MMA Handicapper Stats: TheMMA Casual

TheMMA Casual (TheMMACasual)


Mixed Martial Arts Management - TheMMA Casual

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MMA Betting Stats Summary

Overall Stats

Straight Fight Picks

Props

Parlays

Right 106 (38%) Right 71 (51%) Right 26 (27%) Right 9 (23%)
Wrong 170 (62%) Wrong 69 (49%) Wrong 71 (73%) Wrong 30 (77%)
Avg Odds 2.31 Avg Odds 2.03 Avg Odds 2.45 Avg Odds 3.49
Units Bet 374.0 Units Bet 239.4 Units Bet 95.8 Units Bet 38.8
Avg Bet 1.36 Avg Bet 1.71 Avg Bet 0.99 Avg Bet 0.99
Units Profit -7.36 Units Profit 22.72 Units Profit -13.92 Units Profit -16.16
ROI % -2% ROI % 9% ROI % -15% ROI % -42%
View Handicapper's Profile

TheMMA Casual: Event by Event Predictions

The straight picks, parlays and props sections display Winnings / Bets (ROI%)

Date Event Bet Won ROI Straight Picks Props Parlays
28th Feb '21 UFC Fight Night 186 17 -9.3 -55% -3.3 / 11 (-30%) -1.0 / 1 (-100%) -5.0 / 5 (-100%)
20th Feb '21 UFC Fight Night 185 26 1.0 4% 4.7 / 13 (37%) -3.7 / 13 (-29%)
14th Feb '21 UFC 258 24 3.0 13% 3.0 / 24 (13%)
6th Feb '21 UFC FN 30 23.7 79% 14.5 / 19 (77%) 6.1 / 6 (102%) 3.0 / 5 (60%)
24th Jan '21 UFC 257 32.8 -12.8 -39% -0.8 / 20.8 (-4%) -12.0 / 12 (-100%)
20th Jan '21 UFC on ESPN 20 29 5.3 18% -1.6 / 19 (-8%) 6.8 / 10 (68%)
16th Jan '21 UFC FN 28 3.6 13% 11.7 / 14 (84%) -3.1 / 9 (-35%) -5.0 / 5 (-100%)
26th Sep '20 UFC 253 6.25 -4.7 -74% 0.6 / 1 (60%) -2.8 / 2.75 (-100%) -2.5 / 2.5 (-100%)
19th Sep '20 UFC FN - Covington vs Woodley 10.15 -6.8 -67% -2.6 / 6 (-43%) -3.7 / 3.65 (-100%) -0.5 / 0.5 (-100%)
16th Sep '20 DWCS 33 1 1.3 125% 1.3 / 1 (125%)
13th Sep '20 Bellator 246 3 -3.0 -100% -3.0 / 3 (-100%)
12th Sep '20 UFC Fight Night 184 7.4 -1.6 -21% -3.5 / 3.5 (-100%) 1.9 / 3.9 (50%)
9th Sep '20 DWCS 32 0.5 -0.5 -100% -0.5 / 0.5 (-100%)
5th Sep '20 UFC Fight Night 183 5.7 0.3 6% -1.0 / 4.9 (-20%) 1.3 / 0.8 (162%)
2nd Sep '20 DWCS 31 0.3 1.9 648% 1.9 / 0.3 (648%)
29th Aug '20 UFC Fight Night 182 6.7 -3.2 -48% -2.5 / 2.5 (-100%) -0.7 / 4.2 (-17%)
22nd Aug '20 UFC Vegas 7 5 4.0 80% 5.5 / 3.5 (157%) -0.5 / 0.5 (-100%) -1.0 / 1 (-100%)
21st Aug '20 Bellator 244 3.5 3.8 107% 3.8 / 3.5 (107%)
15th Aug '20 UFC 252 8.05 -2.0 -25% -0.4 / 6.5 (-7%) -1.6 / 1.55 (-100%)
8th Aug '20 UFC Vegas 6 5.2 2.5 48% 2.2 / 3.5 (63%) 0.3 / 1.7 (18%)
1st Aug '20 UFC Vegas 5 2.35 0.7 30% 0.7 / 2.35 (30%)
27th Jun '20 UFC Fight Night 175 2.5 -2.5 -100% -1.0 / 1 (-100%) -1.5 / 1.5 (-100%)
20th Jun '20 UFC Fight Night 174 4 -2.9 -72% -2.4 / 3.5 (-68%) -0.5 / 0.5 (-100%)
13th Jun '20 UFC Fight Night 173 3.8 0.2 6% -0.6 / 2.5 (-24%) -0.3 / 0.3 (-100%) 1.1 / 1 (110%)
6th Jun '20 UFC 250 7.4 -3.0 -41% -3.0 / 5.5 (-54%) 0.1 / 1.75 (6%) -0.2 / 0.15 (-100%)
30th May '20 UFC Fight Night 172 4.89 -1.9 -39% 0.0 / 2 (0%) -1.8 / 2.75 (-64%) -0.1 / 0.14 (-100%)
16th May '20 UFC Fight Night 171 5.07 1.4 28% 1.9 / 4.57 (41%) -0.5 / 0.5 (-100%)
14th May '20 UFC Fight Night 170 4.75 0.5 11% 0.4 / 1.25 (34%) 1.1 / 2.5 (45%) -1.0 / 1 (-100%)
10th May '20 UFC 249 7.25 -0.6 -8% 0.9 / 1 (85%) -0.4 / 5.25 (-8%) -1.0 / 1 (-100%)
14th Mar '20 UFC Fight Night 169 6 -1.6 -27% 0.0 / 4.4 (0%) -0.4 / 0.35 (-100%) -1.3 / 1.25 (-100%)
8th Mar '20 UFC 248 6.5 0.7 11% 0.5 / 5 (10%) -0.3 / 0.25 (-100%) 0.5 / 1.25 (39%)
29th Feb '20 UFC Fight Night 7 -4.0 -57% -2.0 / 5 (-40%) -0.8 / 0.75 (-100%) -1.3 / 1.25 (-100%)
22nd Feb '20 UFC Fight Night 168 7.85 -3.3 -42% -1.9 / 6.5 (-30%) -0.3 / 0.25 (-100%) -1.1 / 1.1 (-100%)
15th Feb '20 UFC Fight Night 167 8.75 4.8 54% 2.9 / 8 (36%) 1.9 / 0.75 (250%)
9th Feb '20 UFC 247 6.25 4.6 73% 3.1 / 3 (103%) 0.7 / 2 (37%) 0.7 / 1.25 (57%)
25th Jan '20 UFC Fight Night 166 7 2.6 37% 1.0 / 3.5 (29%) 0.6 / 2.5 (26%) 1.0 / 1 (96%)
18th Jan '20 UFC 246 10.8 -5.0 -46% -4.6 / 7.5 (-62%) -0.0 / 1.5 (-2%) -0.3 / 1.8 (-18%)
31st Aug '19 UFC Fight Night 157 9.5 -6.2 -65% -2.7 / 6 (-45%) -3.5 / 3.5 (-100%)
24th Aug '19 Bellator 225 1.5 1.6 105% 1.6 / 1.5 (105%)
17th Aug '19 UFC 241 11.3 -0.1 -1% 0.5 / 7.5 (7%) -0.7 / 3.8 (-17%)


Winning Events: 20 (50%)
Losing Events: 20 (50%)

Average Staked Per Event: 9.35 units
Most Staked On One Event: 32.80 units
Best Event: 23.70 units
Worst Event: -12.80 units
Average Event: -0.18 units

Max Win Streak: Events: 3, Units: 27.76
Max Losing Streak: Events: 3, Units: -12.80

TheMMA Casual: Year on Year Profit

Year Bet Won ROI Straight
Won / Bet (ROI%)
Prop
Won / Bet (ROI%)
Parlay
Won / Bet (ROI%)
Events
Won / Lost (%)
Profit
Per Event
2021 186.8 14.5 8% 28.3 / 120.8 (23%) -6.9 / 51 (-14%) -7.0 / 15 (-47%) 5 / 2 (71%) 2.07
2020 164.91 -17.1 -10% -5.1 / 103.62 (-5%) -7.0 / 44.8 (-16%) -5.0 / 16.49 (-30%) 14 / 16 (47%) -0.57
2019 22.3 -4.7 -21% -0.6 / 15 (-4%) -4.2 / 7.3 (-57%) 1 / 2 (33%) -1.58

TheMMA Casual: Yearly Straight Pick Stats

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TheMMA Casual: Profit / Loss by Organization

Organization Bet Won ROI Straight Picks Props Parlays
UFC 364.21 -12.4 -3% 19.6 / 229.92 (9%) -13.9 / 95.8 (-15%) -18.1 / 38.49 (-47%)
Bellator 8 2.3 29% 2.3 / 8 (29%)
Other 1.8 2.7 150% 0.8 / 1.5 (50%) 1.9 / 0.3 (648%)

TheMMA Casual: Straight Pick Stats

Big favourite means >65% win chance according to bookies. Big underdog is <35% chance.

  Picks Correct % Correct Units Bet Units Profit Profit per Pick ROI
Big Favorites 13 (9%) 11 85 % 40.00 9.20 0.71 23%
Slight Favorites 49 (35%) 29 59 % 100.57 8.64 0.18 9%
Slight Underdogs 56 (40%) 23 41 % 78.50 -5.91 -0.11 -8%
Big Underdogs 22 (16%) 8 36 % 20.35 10.78 0.49 53%



Betting Stats By Card Position

  Picks Correct % Correct Units Bet Units Profit Profit per Pick ROI
Main Event 17 (12%) 8 47 % 34.25 -3.53 -0.21 -10%
Co-Main Event 17 (12%) 6 35 % 29.50 -9.99 -0.59 -34%
Position 3-5 40 (29%) 20 50 % 72.32 3.46 0.09 5%
6+ (Undercard) 66 (47%) 37 56 % 103.35 32.77 0.50 32%

TheMMA Casual: Profit by Weight Class

  Picks Correct % Correct Units Bet Units Profit Profit per Pick ROI
Heavyweight 7 (5%) 5 71 % 16.00 6.78 0.97 42%
Light Heavy 7 (5%) 3 43 % 10.50 1.87 0.27 18%
Middleweight 15 (11%) 10 67 % 30.30 11.55 0.77 38%
Welterweight 19 (14%) 11 58 % 34.50 3.23 0.17 9%
Lightweight 19 (14%) 11 58 % 32.00 1.18 0.06 4%
Featherweight 16 (11%) 7 44 % 26.57 3.39 0.21 13%
Bantamweight 18 (13%) 9 50 % 28.40 1.40 0.08 5%
Flyweight 11 (8%) 5 45 % 17.50 -1.66 -0.15 -9%
               
Women's Fights 28 (20%) 10 36 % 43.65 -5.02 -0.18 -12%
Bantamweight 7 (5%) 3 43 % 10.75 3.35 0.48 31%
Flyweight 11 (8%) 5 45 % 18.50 -0.33 -0.03 -2%
Strawweight 10 (7%) 2 20 % 14.40 -8.03 -0.80 -56%

Props & Parlay Section Stats (Individual sections of this handicapper's parlays)

Straight picks within parlays

  Picks Correct % Correct
Big Favorites 36 (44%) 28 78 %
Slight Favorites 27 (33%) 8 30 %
Slight Underdogs 16 (20%) 8 50 %
Big Underdogs 3 (4%) 2 67 %
82 46 56 %

 

Props bets and props within parlays

  Picks Correct % Correct
>65% chance 9 (8%) 5 56 %
50-65% 21 (18%) 9 43 %
35-50% 20 (17%) 7 35 %
<35% chance 65 (57%) 12 18 %
115 33 29 %

Prop Bets and Props within Parlays: Bet Types

Prop Type Picks Correct % Correct Avg
Odds
Longest
Odds
Shortest
Odds
1U Bet (ROI %)
Over (e.g. 1.5 / 2.5 rnds) 5 (4%) 2 40 % 1.70 1.83Pick was incorrect 1.57Pick was incorrect -1.6 (-33%)
Under (e.g. 1.5 / 2.5 rnds) 11 (10%) 4 36 % 1.90 2.65Pick was incorrect 1.57Pick was correct -3.8 (-35%)
Goes to Decision 3 (3%) 1 33 % 2.01 3.20Pick was incorrect 1.36Pick was correct -1.6 (-55%)
Does not go to Decision 2 (2%) 1 50 % 2.13 2.50Pick was correct 1.85Pick was incorrect 0.5 (25%)
Fight Doesn't Start Round X 1 (1%) 0 0 % 2.45 2.45Pick was incorrect 2.45Pick was incorrect -1.0 (-100%)
X Wins by KO 13 (11%) 2 15 % 3.97 19.00Pick was incorrect 1.45Pick was correct -10.1 (-78%)
X Wins by Sub 12 (10%) 1 8 % 10.79 19.00Pick was incorrect 7.00Pick was incorrect 3.0 (25%)
X Wins by Decision 8 (7%) 3 38 % 4.33 8.00Pick was incorrect 3.20Pick was correct 4.4 (56%)
X Wins Inside Distance 28 (24%) 8 29 % 2.77 10.00Pick was incorrect 1.40Pick was incorrect -3.4 (-12%)
X Does NOT Win Inside Distance 1 (1%) 0 0 % 1.50 1.50Pick was incorrect 1.50Pick was incorrect -1.0 (-100%)
X Wins in Round X 9 (8%) 3 33 % 4.91 19.00Pick was incorrect 2.63Pick was incorrect 3.2 (36%)
Others 22 (19%) 8 36 % 1.30 26.00Pick was incorrect 0.10Pick was incorrect -3.3 (-15%)
115 33 29 % 2.43     -14.7 (-13%)

* 1U Bet (ROI %): Many of the picks will have been part of a parlay, however, as a rough guide to value / profitability, this figure supposes that the handicapper put a 1U bet on each of the picks individually, showing the profit / loss they would have made and the ROI %.

Tail TheMMA Casual's bets

If you had tailed this handicapper's bets since they started logging their picks with us, it would have affected your betting bank balance as follows...

This is more accurate than simply X units total profit. Under that more basic system, 1 unit is equal to the same amount of theoretical dollars, whether it was the last event or 10 events ago. However, if a handicapper has 10 events profit in a row, their betting bank balance will be significantly larger for the 10th event and 1 unit will equal a LOT more than it did 10 events ago.

Date Event Bet Won ROI Fee 1 unit = Start End
17th Aug UFC 241 11.3 -0.1 -1% $10.00 $1,000.00 $998.65
24th Aug Bellator 225 1.5 1.6 105% $9.99 $998.65 $1,014.37
31st Aug UFC Fight Night 157 9.5 -6.2 -65% $10.14 $1,014.37 $951.74
18th Jan UFC 246 10.8 -5.0 -46% $9.52 $951.74 $904.43
25th Jan UFC Fight Night 166 7 2.6 37% $9.04 $904.43 $927.98
9th Feb UFC 247 6.25 4.6 73% $9.28 $927.98 $970.29
15th Feb UFC Fight Night 167 8.75 4.8 54% $9.70 $970.29 $1,016.52
22nd Feb UFC Fight Night 168 7.85 -3.3 -42% $10.17 $1,016.52 $983.18
29th Feb UFC Fight Night 7 -4.0 -57% $9.83 $983.18 $943.85
8th Mar UFC 248 6.5 0.7 11% $9.44 $943.85 $950.84
14th Mar UFC Fight Night 169 6 -1.6 -27% $9.51 $950.84 $935.63
10th May UFC 249 7.25 -0.6 -8% $9.36 $935.63 $930.11
14th May UFC Fight Night 170 4.75 0.5 11% $9.30 $930.11 $935.13
16th May UFC Fight Night 171 5.07 1.4 28% $9.35 $935.13 $948.18
30th May UFC Fight Night 172 4.89 -1.9 -39% $9.48 $948.18 $930.26
6th Jun UFC 250 7.4 -3.0 -41% $9.30 $930.26 $901.93
13th Jun UFC Fight Night 173 3.8 0.2 6% $9.02 $901.93 $903.82
20th Jun UFC Fight Night 174 4 -2.9 -72% $9.04 $903.82 $877.84
27th Jun UFC Fight Night 175 2.5 -2.5 -100% $8.78 $877.84 $855.89
1st Aug UFC Vegas 5 2.35 0.7 30% $8.56 $855.89 $861.97
8th Aug UFC Vegas 6 5.2 2.5 48% $8.62 $861.97 $883.52
15th Aug UFC 252 8.05 -2.0 -25% $8.84 $883.52 $866.07
21st Aug Bellator 244 3.5 3.8 107% $8.66 $866.07 $898.63
22nd Aug UFC Vegas 7 5 4.0 80% $8.99 $898.63 $934.49
29th Aug UFC Fight Night 182 6.7 -3.2 -48% $9.34 $934.49 $904.58
2nd Sep DWCS 31 0.3 1.9 648% $9.05 $904.58 $922.17
5th Sep UFC Fight Night 183 5.7 0.3 6% $9.22 $922.17 $925.17
9th Sep DWCS 32 0.5 -0.5 -100% $9.25 $925.17 $920.54
12th Sep UFC Fight Night 184 7.4 -1.6 -21% $9.21 $920.54 $906.27
13th Sep Bellator 246 3 -3.0 -100% $9.06 $906.27 $879.08
16th Sep DWCS 33 1 1.3 125% $8.79 $879.08 $890.07
19th Sep UFC FN - Covington vs Woodley 10.15 -6.8 -67% $8.90 $890.07 $829.99
26th Sep UFC 253 6.25 -4.7 -74% $8.30 $829.99 $791.40
16th Jan UFC FN 28 3.6 13% $7.91 $791.40 $819.57
20th Jan UFC on ESPN 20 29 5.3 18% $8.20 $819.57 $862.68
24th Jan UFC 257 32.8 -12.8 -39% $8.63 $862.68 $752.26
6th Feb UFC FN 30 23.7 79% $7.52 $752.26 $930.54
14th Feb UFC 258 24 3.0 13% $9.31 $930.54 $958.92
20th Feb UFC Fight Night 185 26 1.0 4% $9.59 $958.92 $968.61
28th Feb UFC Fight Night 186 17 -9.3 -55% $9.69 $968.61 $878.33


ROI % from starting bank balance: -12.17% (including fees)
*Note - we don't store historical fee amounts, so we assume the fees are the same as the handicapper charges now.

TheMMA Casual: Last 20 Wins / Losses (Straight Picks)

Last 20 Wins

  Date Straight Pick Opponent Odds Bet Result    
1. Feb '21 Alexis Davis Sabina Mazo 2.88 1 U Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
2. Feb '21 Ronnie Lawrence Vince Cachero 1.60 3 TKO, R3 (2:38) MMA Bookmaker
3. Feb '21 Yana Kunitskaya Ketlen Vieira 3.10 2 U Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
4. Feb '21 Julian Erosa Nate Landwehr 1.90 3 TKO, R1 (0:56) MMA Bookmaker
5. Feb '21 John Castaneda Eddie Wineland 1.95 3 TKO, R1 (4:44) MMA Bookmaker
6. Feb '21 Gabriel Green Phil Rowe 1.85 3 U Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
7. Feb '21 Kamaru Usman Gilbert Burns 1.40 5 TKO, R3 (0:34) MMA Bookmaker
8. Feb '21 Julian Marquez Maki Pitolo 1.50 5 Sub, R3 (4:17) MMA Bookmaker
9. Feb '21 Ricky Simon Brian Kelleher 1.40 5 U Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
10. Feb '21 Alexander Volkov Alistair Overeem 1.50 5 TKO, R2 (2:6) MMA Bookmaker
11. Feb '21 Seung Woo Choi Youssef Zalal 2.90 3 U Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
12. Feb '21 Lara Fritzen Procopio Molly McCann 2.70 3 U Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
13. Feb '21 Beneil Dariush Carlos Diego Ferreira 1.85 5 Split Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
14. Jan '21 Brad Tavares Antonio Carlos Junior 3.00 1.8 U Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
15. Jan '21 Amir Albazi Zhalgas Zhumagulov 1.95 3 U Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
16. Jan '21 Makhmud Muradov Andrew Sanchez 1.75 5 TKO, R3 (2:59) MMA Bookmaker
17. Jan '21 Mike Davis Mason Jones 1.62 3 U Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
18. Jan '21 Francisco Figueiredo Jerome Rivera 1.65 3 U Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
19. Jan '21 Omari Akhmedov Tom Breese 2.35 1 Sub, R2 (1:41) MMA Bookmaker
20. Jan '21 Ike Villanueva Vinicius Moreira 1.75 3 TKO, R2 (0:39) MMA Bookmaker



Last 20 Losses

  Date Straight Pick Opponent Odds Bet Result Hedge?    
1. Feb '21 Maxim Grishin Dustin Jacoby 2.50 3 U Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
2. Feb '21 Kevin Croom Alex Caceres 2.88 1 U Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
3. Feb '21 Jimmie Rivera Pedro Munhoz 1.70 3 U Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
4. Feb '21 Shana Dobson Casey O'Neill 2.63 2 TKO, R2 (3:41) No MMA Bookmaker
5. Feb '21 Danny Chavez Jared Gordon 2.05 3 U Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
6. Feb '21 Maycee Barber Alexa Grasso 2.20 3 U Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
7. Feb '21 Ian Heinisch Kelvin Gastelum 2.88 3 U Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
8. Feb '21 Manel Kape Alexandre Pantoja 2.05 3 U Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
9. Jan '21 Jessica Eye Joanne Calderwood 2.05 3 U Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
10. Jan '21 Sara McMann Julianna Pena 1.83 3 Sub, R3 (3:39) No MMA Bookmaker
11. Jan '21 Daniel Hooker Michael Chandler 1.73 5 TKO, R1 (2:30) No MMA Bookmaker
12. Jan '21 Victoria Leonardo Manon Fiorot 2.70 1 TKO, R2 (4:8) No MMA Bookmaker
13. Jan '21 Tyson Nam Matt Schnell 1.80 2 Split Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
14. Jan '21 Mounir Lazzez Warlley Alves 1.75 3 TKO, R1 (2:35) No MMA Bookmaker
15. Jan '21 Neil Magny Michael Chiesa 1.75 3 U Decision (5 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
16. Sep '20 Jordan Espinosa David Dvorak 2.30 2 U Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
17. Sep '20 Journey Newson Randy Costa 1.70 2 TKO, R1 (0:41) No MMA Bookmaker
18. Sep '20 Jon Fitch Neiman Gracie 2.25 2 Sub, R2 (4:47) No MMA Bookmaker
19. Sep '20 Patrick Mix Juan Archulata 1.90 1 U Decision (5 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
20. Sep '20 Justine Kish Sabina Mazo 2.90 0.5 Sub, R3 (3:57) No MMA Bookmaker

* Hedge indicates that this handicapper also had a WINNING bet on the opponent. For example, they may have bet A to win straight up but with a hedge on the other fighter winning by decision.

TheMMA Casual: Progress Chart

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