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MMA Handicapper Stats: TheMMA Casual

TheMMA Casual (TheMMACasual)


Mixed Martial Arts Management - TheMMA Casual

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MMA Betting Stats Summary

Overall Stats

Straight Fight Picks

Props

Parlays

Right 28 (50%) Right 17 (59%) Right 6 (55%) Right 5 (31%)
Wrong 28 (50%) Wrong 12 (41%) Wrong 5 (45%) Wrong 11 (69%)
Avg Odds 2.40 Avg Odds 1.97 Avg Odds 2.54 Avg Odds 3.74
Units Bet 55.1 Units Bet 37.0 Units Bet 6.8 Units Bet 11.4
Avg Bet 0.98 Avg Bet 1.28 Avg Bet 0.61 Avg Bet 0.71
Units Profit 2.22 Units Profit 1.80 Units Profit 3.23 Units Profit -2.81
ROI % 4% ROI % 5% ROI % 48% ROI % -25%
View Handicapper's Profile

TheMMA Casual: Event by Event Predictions

The straight picks, parlays and props sections display Winnings / Bets (ROI%)

Date Event Bet Won ROI Straight Picks Props Parlays
15th Feb '20 UFC Fight Night 167 8.75 4.8 54% 2.9 / 8 (36%) 1.9 / 0.75 (250%)
9th Feb '20 UFC 247 6.25 4.6 73% 3.1 / 3 (103%) 0.7 / 2 (37%) 0.7 / 1.25 (57%)
25th Jan '20 UFC Fight Night 166 7 2.6 37% 1.0 / 3.5 (29%) 0.6 / 2.5 (26%) 1.0 / 1 (96%)
18th Jan '20 UFC 246 10.8 -5.0 -46% -4.6 / 7.5 (-62%) -0.0 / 1.5 (-2%) -0.3 / 1.8 (-18%)
31st Aug '19 UFC Fight Night 157 9.5 -6.2 -65% -2.7 / 6 (-45%) -3.5 / 3.5 (-100%)
24th Aug '19 Bellator 225 1.5 1.6 105% 1.6 / 1.5 (105%)
17th Aug '19 UFC 241 11.3 -0.1 -1% 0.5 / 7.5 (7%) -0.7 / 3.8 (-17%)


Winning Events: 4 (57%)
Losing Events: 3 (43%)

Average Staked Per Event: 7.87 units
Most Staked On One Event: 11.30 units
Best Event: 4.76 units
Worst Event: -6.18 units
Average Event: 0.32 units

Max Win Streak: Events: 3, Units: 11.93
Max Losing Streak: Events: 2, Units: -11.15

TheMMA Casual: Year on Year Profit

Year Bet Won ROI Straight
Won / Bet (ROI%)
Prop
Won / Bet (ROI%)
Parlay
Won / Bet (ROI%)
Events
Won / Lost (%)
Profit
Per Event
2020 32.8 7.0 21% 2.4 / 22 (11%) 3.2 / 6.75 (48%) 1.4 / 4.05 (33%) 3 / 1 (75%) 1.74
2019 22.3 -4.7 -21% -0.6 / 15 (-4%) -4.2 / 7.3 (-57%) 1 / 2 (33%) -1.58

TheMMA Casual: Yearly Straight Pick Stats

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TheMMA Casual: Profit / Loss by Organization

Organization Bet Won ROI Straight Picks Props Parlays
UFC 53.6 0.6 1% 0.2 / 35.5 (1%) 3.2 / 6.75 (48%) -2.8 / 11.35 (-25%)
Bellator 1.5 1.6 105% 1.6 / 1.5 (105%)

TheMMA Casual: Straight Pick Stats

Big favourite means >65% win chance according to bookies. Big underdog is <35% chance.

  Picks Correct % Correct Units Bet Units Profit Profit per Pick ROI
Big Favorites 6 (21%) 4 67 % 12.00 -3.94 -0.66 -33%
Slight Favorites 7 (24%) 4 57 % 10.50 -0.86 -0.12 -8%
Slight Underdogs 11 (38%) 6 55 % 11.00 3.78 0.34 34%
Big Underdogs 5 (17%) 3 60 % 3.50 2.83 0.57 81%



Betting Stats By Card Position

  Picks Correct % Correct Units Bet Units Profit Profit per Pick ROI
Main Event 3 (10%) 2 67 % 7.50 -2.98 -0.99 -40%
Co-Main Event 4 (14%) 2 50 % 3.50 1.20 0.30 34%
Position 3-5 9 (31%) 6 67 % 10.50 1.34 0.15 13%
6+ (Undercard) 13 (45%) 7 54 % 15.50 2.24 0.17 14%

TheMMA Casual: Profit by Weight Class

  Picks Correct % Correct Units Bet Units Profit Profit per Pick ROI
Heavyweight 2 (7%) 1 50 % 2.50 0.58 0.29 23%
Light Heavy 2 (7%) 1 50 % 1.50 0.13 0.06 8%
Middleweight 2 (7%) 1 50 % 3.50 -1.25 -0.62 -36%
Welterweight 4 (14%) 3 75 % 3.50 2.64 0.66 75%
Lightweight 5 (17%) 3 60 % 6.50 0.17 0.03 3%
Featherweight 3 (10%) 1 33 % 2.50 -0.40 -0.13 -16%
Bantamweight 4 (14%) 4 100 % 5.00 4.30 1.08 86%
Flyweight 3 (10%) 3 100 % 4.50 3.14 1.05 70%
               
Women's Fights 4 (14%) 0 % 7.50 -7.50 -1.88 -100%
Bantamweight 2 (7%) 0 % 1.50 -1.50 -0.75 -100%
Flyweight 1 (3%) 0 % 1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -100%
Strawweight 1 (3%) 0 % 5.00 -5.00 -5.00 -100%

Props & Parlay Section Stats (Individual sections of this handicapper's parlays)

Straight picks within parlays

  Picks Correct % Correct
Big Favorites 17 (47%) 13 76 %
Slight Favorites 11 (31%) 5 45 %
Slight Underdogs 5 (14%) 2 40 %
Big Underdogs 3 (8%) 2 67 %
36 22 61 %

 

Props bets and props within parlays

  Picks Correct % Correct
>65% chance 4 (25%) 3 75 %
50-65% 3 (19%) 2 67 %
35-50% 1 (6%) 0 0 %
<35% chance 8 (50%) 4 50 %
16 9 56 %

Prop Bets and Props within Parlays: Bet Types

Prop Type Picks Correct % Correct Avg
Odds
Longest
Odds
Shortest
Odds
1U Bet (ROI %)
Under (e.g. 1.5 / 2.5 rnds) 1 (6%) 1 100 % 1.57 1.57Pick was correct 1.57Pick was correct 0.6 (57%)
Goes to Decision 1 (6%) 1 100 % 1.36 1.36Pick was correct 1.36Pick was correct 0.4 (36%)
X Wins by KO 4 (25%) 2 50 % 1.81 3.40Pick was incorrect 1.45Pick was correct -1.1 (-27%)
X Wins by Decision 1 (6%) 1 100 % 5.50 5.50Pick was correct 5.50Pick was correct 4.5 (450%)
X Wins Inside Distance 7 (44%) 3 43 % 3.26 6.00Pick was correct 1.57Pick was correct 5.1 (72%)
X Does NOT Win Inside Distance 1 (6%) 0 0 % 1.50 1.50Pick was incorrect 1.50Pick was incorrect -1.0 (-100%)
Others 1 (6%) 1 100 % 3.40 3.40Pick was correct 3.40Pick was correct 2.4 (240%)
16 9 56 % 2.33     10.8 (68%)

* 1U Bet (ROI %): Many of the picks will have been part of a parlay, however, as a rough guide to value / profitability, this figure supposes that the handicapper put a 1U bet on each of the picks individually, showing the profit / loss they would have made and the ROI %.

Tail TheMMA Casual's bets

If you had tailed this handicapper's bets since they started logging their picks with us, it would have affected your betting bank balance as follows...

This is more accurate than simply X units total profit. Under that more basic system, 1 unit is equal to the same amount of theoretical dollars, whether it was the last event or 10 events ago. However, if a handicapper has 10 events profit in a row, their betting bank balance will be significantly larger for the 10th event and 1 unit will equal a LOT more than it did 10 events ago.

Date Event Bet Won ROI Fee 1 unit = Start End
17th Aug UFC 241 11.3 -0.1 -1% $10.00 $1,000.00 $998.65
24th Aug Bellator 225 1.5 1.6 105% $9.99 $998.65 $1,014.37
31st Aug UFC Fight Night 157 9.5 -6.2 -65% $10.14 $1,014.37 $951.74
18th Jan UFC 246 10.8 -5.0 -46% $9.52 $951.74 $904.43
25th Jan UFC Fight Night 166 7 2.6 37% $9.04 $904.43 $927.98
9th Feb UFC 247 6.25 4.6 73% $9.28 $927.98 $970.29
15th Feb UFC Fight Night 167 8.75 4.8 54% $9.70 $970.29 $1,016.52


ROI % from starting bank balance: 1.65% (including fees)
*Note - we don't store historical fee amounts, so we assume the fees are the same as the handicapper charges now.

TheMMA Casual: Last 20 Wins / Losses (Straight Picks)

Last 20 Wins

  Date Straight Pick Opponent Odds Bet Result    
1. Feb '20 Andre Ewell Jonathan Martinez 1.75 1 Split Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
2. Feb '20 Brok Weaver Rodrigo Vargas 1.55 1 MMA Bookmaker
3. Feb '20 Merab Dvalishvili Casey Kenney 1.60 2 U Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
4. Feb '20 Ray Borg Rogerio Bontorin 2.00 1.5 U Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
5. Feb '20 Raulian Paiva Mark Delarosa 1.57 2 TKO, R2 (4:42) MMA Bookmaker
6. Feb '20 Mario Bautista Miles Johns 2.25 1 TKO, R2 (1:41) MMA Bookmaker
7. Feb '20 Dan Ige Mirsad Bektic 2.10 1 Split Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
8. Jan '20 Alex Perez Jordan Espinosa 1.50 1 Sub, R1 (2:33) MMA Bookmaker
9. Jan '20 Michael Chiesa Rafael dos Anjos 3.00 1 U Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
10. Jan '20 Carlos Diego Ferreira Anthony Pettis 1.44 1 Sub, R2 (1:46) MMA Bookmaker
11. Jan '20 Conor McGregor Donald Cerrone 1.44 1 TKO, R1 (0:40) MMA Bookmaker
12. Aug '19 Li Jingliang Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 3.40 0.5 TKO, R3 (4:51) MMA Bookmaker
13. Aug '19 Da Un Jung Khadis Ibragimov 3.25 0.5 Sub, R3 (2:0) MMA Bookmaker
14. Aug '19 Sergei Kharitonov Matt Mitrione 2.05 1.5 TKO, R2 (1:24) MMA Bookmaker
15. Aug '19 Drakkar Klose Christos Giagos 1.47 2.5 U Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
16. Aug '19 Casey Kenney Manny Bermudez 2.10 1 U Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
17. Aug '19 Paulo Costa Yoel Romero 2.25 1 U Decision (3 rounds) View Pick Writeup MMA Bookmaker



Last 20 Losses

  Date Straight Pick Opponent Odds Bet Result Hedge?    
1. Feb '20 Jim Miller Scott Holtzman 2.20 0.5 U Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
2. Jan '20 Lina Lansberg Sara McMann 2.30 0.5 U Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
3. Feb '20 Michel Pereira Diego Sanchez 1.80 1 No MMA Bookmaker
4. Jan '20 Lucie Pudilova Justine Kish 1.62 1 U Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
5. Jan '20 Andre Fili Sodiq Yusuff 2.20 1 U Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
6. Jan '20 Raquel Pennington Holly Holm 42.19 1 U Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
7. Jan '20 Nasrat Haqparast Drew Dober 1.40 1.5 TKO, R1 (1:10) No MMA Bookmaker
8. Jan '20 Justin Ledet Aleksa Camur 2.30 1 U Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
9. Jan '20 Maurice Greene Aleksei Oleinik 2.10 1 Sub, R2 (4:38) No MMA Bookmaker
10. Aug '19 Jessica Andrade Weili Zhang 1.53 5 TKO, R1 (0:42) No MMA Bookmaker
11. Aug '19 Ian Heinisch Derek Brunson 1.57 2.5 U Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
12. Aug '19 Gabriel Benitez Sodiq Yusuff 3.75 0.5 TKO, R1 (4:14) No MMA Bookmaker

* Hedge indicates that this handicapper also had a WINNING bet on the opponent. For example, they may have bet A to win straight up but with a hedge on the other fighter winning by decision.

TheMMA Casual: Progress Chart

Chart

 

 
 
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