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MMA Handicapper Stats: TheMMA Casual

TheMMA Casual (TheMMACasual)

MMA Betting Stats Summary

Overall Stats		Straight Fight Picks		Props		Parlays
Right	28 (50%)	Right	17 (59%)	Right	6 (55%)	Right	5 (31%)
Wrong	28 (50%)	Wrong	12 (41%)	Wrong	5 (45%)	Wrong	11 (69%)
Avg Odds	2.40	Avg Odds	1.97	Avg Odds	2.54	Avg Odds	3.74
Units Bet	55.1	Units Bet	37.0	Units Bet	6.8	Units Bet	11.4
Avg Bet	0.98	Avg Bet	1.28	Avg Bet	0.61	Avg Bet	0.71
Units Profit	2.22	Units Profit	1.80	Units Profit	3.23	Units Profit	-2.81
ROI %	4%	ROI %	5%	ROI %	48%	ROI %	-25%

TheMMA Casual: Event by Event Predictions

The straight picks, parlays and props sections display Winnings / Bets (ROI%)

Date	Event	Bet	Won	ROI	Straight Picks	Props	Parlays
15th Feb '20	UFC Fight Night 167	8.75	4.8	54%	2.9 / 8 (36%)	1.9 / 0.75 (250%)
9th Feb '20	UFC 247	6.25	4.6	73%	3.1 / 3 (103%)	0.7 / 2 (37%)	0.7 / 1.25 (57%)
25th Jan '20	UFC Fight Night 166	7	2.6	37%	1.0 / 3.5 (29%)	0.6 / 2.5 (26%)	1.0 / 1 (96%)
18th Jan '20	UFC 246	10.8	-5.0	-46%	-4.6 / 7.5 (-62%)	-0.0 / 1.5 (-2%)	-0.3 / 1.8 (-18%)
31st Aug '19	UFC Fight Night 157	9.5	-6.2	-65%	-2.7 / 6 (-45%)		-3.5 / 3.5 (-100%)
24th Aug '19	Bellator 225	1.5	1.6	105%	1.6 / 1.5 (105%)
17th Aug '19	UFC 241	11.3	-0.1	-1%	0.5 / 7.5 (7%)		-0.7 / 3.8 (-17%)

Winning Events: 4 (57%)
Losing Events: 3 (43%)

Average Staked Per Event: 7.87 units
Most Staked On One Event: 11.30 units
Best Event: 4.76 units
Worst Event: -6.18 units
Average Event: 0.32 units

Max Win Streak: Events: 3, Units: 11.93
Max Losing Streak: Events: 2, Units: -11.15

TheMMA Casual: Year on Year Profit

Year	Bet	Won	ROI	Straight Won / Bet (ROI%)	Prop Won / Bet (ROI%)	Parlay Won / Bet (ROI%)	Events Won / Lost (%)	Profit Per Event
2020	32.8	7.0	21%	2.4 / 22 (11%)	3.2 / 6.75 (48%)	1.4 / 4.05 (33%)	3 / 1 (75%)	1.74
2019	22.3	-4.7	-21%	-0.6 / 15 (-4%)		-4.2 / 7.3 (-57%)	1 / 2 (33%)	-1.58

TheMMA Casual: Yearly Straight Pick Stats

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TheMMA Casual: Profit / Loss by Organization

Organization	Bet	Won	ROI	Straight Picks	Props	Parlays
UFC	53.6	0.6	1%	0.2 / 35.5 (1%)	3.2 / 6.75 (48%)	-2.8 / 11.35 (-25%)
Bellator	1.5	1.6	105%	1.6 / 1.5 (105%)

TheMMA Casual: Straight Pick Stats

Big favourite means >65% win chance according to bookies. Big underdog is <35% chance.

	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Units Bet	Units Profit	Profit per Pick	ROI
Big Favorites	6 (21%)	4	67 %	12.00	-3.94	-0.66	-33%
Slight Favorites	7 (24%)	4	57 %	10.50	-0.86	-0.12	-8%
Slight Underdogs	11 (38%)	6	55 %	11.00	3.78	0.34	34%
Big Underdogs	5 (17%)	3	60 %	3.50	2.83	0.57	81%

Betting Stats By Card Position

	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Units Bet	Units Profit	Profit per Pick	ROI
Main Event	3 (10%)	2	67 %	7.50	-2.98	-0.99	-40%
Co-Main Event	4 (14%)	2	50 %	3.50	1.20	0.30	34%
Position 3-5	9 (31%)	6	67 %	10.50	1.34	0.15	13%
6+ (Undercard)	13 (45%)	7	54 %	15.50	2.24	0.17	14%

TheMMA Casual: Profit by Weight Class

	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Units Bet	Units Profit	Profit per Pick	ROI
Heavyweight	2 (7%)	1	50 %	2.50	0.58	0.29	23%
Light Heavy	2 (7%)	1	50 %	1.50	0.13	0.06	8%
Middleweight	2 (7%)	1	50 %	3.50	-1.25	-0.62	-36%
Welterweight	4 (14%)	3	75 %	3.50	2.64	0.66	75%
Lightweight	5 (17%)	3	60 %	6.50	0.17	0.03	3%
Featherweight	3 (10%)	1	33 %	2.50	-0.40	-0.13	-16%
Bantamweight	4 (14%)	4	100 %	5.00	4.30	1.08	86%
Flyweight	3 (10%)	3	100 %	4.50	3.14	1.05	70%

Women's Fights	4 (14%)		0 %	7.50	-7.50	-1.88	-100%
Bantamweight	2 (7%)		0 %	1.50	-1.50	-0.75	-100%
Flyweight	1 (3%)		0 %	1.00	-1.00	-1.00	-100%
Strawweight	1 (3%)		0 %	5.00	-5.00	-5.00	-100%

Props & Parlay Section Stats (Individual sections of this handicapper's parlays)

Straight picks within parlays

	Picks	Correct	% Correct
Big Favorites	17 (47%)	13	76 %
Slight Favorites	11 (31%)	5	45 %
Slight Underdogs	5 (14%)	2	40 %
Big Underdogs	3 (8%)	2	67 %
	36	22	61 %

Props bets and props within parlays

	Picks	Correct	% Correct
>65% chance	4 (25%)	3	75 %
50-65%	3 (19%)	2	67 %
35-50%	1 (6%)	0	0 %
<35% chance	8 (50%)	4	50 %
	16	9	56 %

Prop Bets and Props within Parlays: Bet Types

Prop Type	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Avg Odds	Longest Odds	Shortest Odds	1U Bet (ROI %)
Under (e.g. 1.5 / 2.5 rnds)	1 (6%)	1	100 %	1.57	1.57	1.57	0.6 (57%)
Goes to Decision	1 (6%)	1	100 %	1.36	1.36	1.36	0.4 (36%)
X Wins by KO	4 (25%)	2	50 %	1.81	3.40	1.45	-1.1 (-27%)
X Wins by Decision	1 (6%)	1	100 %	5.50	5.50	5.50	4.5 (450%)
X Wins Inside Distance	7 (44%)	3	43 %	3.26	6.00	1.57	5.1 (72%)
X Does NOT Win Inside Distance	1 (6%)	0	0 %	1.50	1.50	1.50	-1.0 (-100%)
Others	1 (6%)	1	100 %	3.40	3.40	3.40	2.4 (240%)
	16	9	56 %	2.33			10.8 (68%)

* 1U Bet (ROI %): Many of the picks will have been part of a parlay, however, as a rough guide to value / profitability, this figure supposes that the handicapper put a 1U bet on each of the picks individually, showing the profit / loss they would have made and the ROI %.

Tail TheMMA Casual's bets

If you had tailed this handicapper's bets since they started logging their picks with us, it would have affected your betting bank balance as follows...

This is more accurate than simply X units total profit. Under that more basic system, 1 unit is equal to the same amount of theoretical dollars, whether it was the last event or 10 events ago. However, if a handicapper has 10 events profit in a row, their betting bank balance will be significantly larger for the 10th event and 1 unit will equal a LOT more than it did 10 events ago.

Date	Event	Bet	Won	ROI	Fee	1 unit =	Start	End
17th Aug	UFC 241	11.3	-0.1	-1%		$10.00	$1,000.00	$998.65
24th Aug	Bellator 225	1.5	1.6	105%		$9.99	$998.65	$1,014.37
31st Aug	UFC Fight Night 157	9.5	-6.2	-65%		$10.14	$1,014.37	$951.74
18th Jan	UFC 246	10.8	-5.0	-46%		$9.52	$951.74	$904.43
25th Jan	UFC Fight Night 166	7	2.6	37%		$9.04	$904.43	$927.98
9th Feb	UFC 247	6.25	4.6	73%		$9.28	$927.98	$970.29
15th Feb	UFC Fight Night 167	8.75	4.8	54%		$9.70	$970.29	$1,016.52

ROI % from starting bank balance: 1.65% (including fees)
*Note - we don't store historical fee amounts, so we assume the fees are the same as the handicapper charges now.

TheMMA Casual: Last 20 Wins / Losses (Straight Picks)

Last 20 Wins

	Date	Straight Pick	Opponent	Odds	Bet	Result
1.	Feb '20	Andre Ewell	Jonathan Martinez	1.75	1	Split Decision (3 rounds)
2.	Feb '20	Brok Weaver	Rodrigo Vargas	1.55	1
3.	Feb '20	Merab Dvalishvili	Casey Kenney	1.60	2	U Decision (3 rounds)
4.	Feb '20	Ray Borg	Rogerio Bontorin	2.00	1.5	U Decision (3 rounds)
5.	Feb '20	Raulian Paiva	Mark Delarosa	1.57	2	TKO, R2 (4:42)
6.	Feb '20	Mario Bautista	Miles Johns	2.25	1	TKO, R2 (1:41)
7.	Feb '20	Dan Ige	Mirsad Bektic	2.10	1	Split Decision (3 rounds)
8.	Jan '20	Alex Perez	Jordan Espinosa	1.50	1	Sub, R1 (2:33)
9.	Jan '20	Michael Chiesa	Rafael dos Anjos	3.00	1	U Decision (3 rounds)
10.	Jan '20	Carlos Diego Ferreira	Anthony Pettis	1.44	1	Sub, R2 (1:46)
11.	Jan '20	Conor McGregor	Donald Cerrone	1.44	1	TKO, R1 (0:40)
12.	Aug '19	Li Jingliang	Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos	3.40	0.5	TKO, R3 (4:51)
13.	Aug '19	Da Un Jung	Khadis Ibragimov	3.25	0.5	Sub, R3 (2:0)
14.	Aug '19	Sergei Kharitonov	Matt Mitrione	2.05	1.5	TKO, R2 (1:24)
15.	Aug '19	Drakkar Klose	Christos Giagos	1.47	2.5	U Decision (3 rounds)
16.	Aug '19	Casey Kenney	Manny Bermudez	2.10	1	U Decision (3 rounds)
17.	Aug '19	Paulo Costa	Yoel Romero	2.25	1	U Decision (3 rounds)

Last 20 Losses

	Date	Straight Pick	Opponent	Odds	Bet	Result	Hedge?
1.	Feb '20	Jim Miller	Scott Holtzman	2.20	0.5	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
2.	Jan '20	Lina Lansberg	Sara McMann	2.30	0.5	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
3.	Feb '20	Michel Pereira	Diego Sanchez	1.80	1		No
4.	Jan '20	Lucie Pudilova	Justine Kish	1.62	1	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
5.	Jan '20	Andre Fili	Sodiq Yusuff	2.20	1	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
6.	Jan '20	Raquel Pennington	Holly Holm	42.19	1	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
7.	Jan '20	Nasrat Haqparast	Drew Dober	1.40	1.5	TKO, R1 (1:10)	No
8.	Jan '20	Justin Ledet	Aleksa Camur	2.30	1	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
9.	Jan '20	Maurice Greene	Aleksei Oleinik	2.10	1	Sub, R2 (4:38)	No
10.	Aug '19	Jessica Andrade	Weili Zhang	1.53	5	TKO, R1 (0:42)	No
11.	Aug '19	Ian Heinisch	Derek Brunson	1.57	2.5	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
12.	Aug '19	Gabriel Benitez	Sodiq Yusuff	3.75	0.5	TKO, R1 (4:14)	No

* Hedge indicates that this handicapper also had a WINNING bet on the opponent. For example, they may have bet A to win straight up but with a hedge on the other fighter winning by decision.

TheMMA Casual: Progress Chart

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