MMA Handicapper Directory
Total MMA Handicappers: 3119
Profitable MMA Handicappers: 1181

MMA Handicapper Stats: TheMMA Casual

TheMMA Casual (TheMMACasual)

MMA Betting Stats Summary

Overall Stats		Straight Fight Picks		Props		Parlays
Right	106 (38%)	Right	71 (51%)	Right	26 (27%)	Right	9 (23%)
Wrong	170 (62%)	Wrong	69 (49%)	Wrong	71 (73%)	Wrong	30 (77%)
Avg Odds	2.31	Avg Odds	2.03	Avg Odds	2.45	Avg Odds	3.49
Units Bet	374.0	Units Bet	239.4	Units Bet	95.8	Units Bet	38.8
Avg Bet	1.36	Avg Bet	1.71	Avg Bet	0.99	Avg Bet	0.99
Units Profit	-7.36	Units Profit	22.72	Units Profit	-13.92	Units Profit	-16.16
ROI %	-2%	ROI %	9%	ROI %	-15%	ROI %	-42%

TheMMA Casual: Event by Event Predictions

The straight picks, parlays and props sections display Winnings / Bets (ROI%)

Date	Event	Bet	Won	ROI	Straight Picks	Props	Parlays
28th Feb '21	UFC Fight Night 186	17	-9.3	-55%	-3.3 / 11 (-30%)	-1.0 / 1 (-100%)	-5.0 / 5 (-100%)
20th Feb '21	UFC Fight Night 185	26	1.0	4%	4.7 / 13 (37%)	-3.7 / 13 (-29%)
14th Feb '21	UFC 258	24	3.0	13%	3.0 / 24 (13%)
6th Feb '21	UFC FN	30	23.7	79%	14.5 / 19 (77%)	6.1 / 6 (102%)	3.0 / 5 (60%)
24th Jan '21	UFC 257	32.8	-12.8	-39%	-0.8 / 20.8 (-4%)	-12.0 / 12 (-100%)
20th Jan '21	UFC on ESPN 20	29	5.3	18%	-1.6 / 19 (-8%)	6.8 / 10 (68%)
16th Jan '21	UFC FN	28	3.6	13%	11.7 / 14 (84%)	-3.1 / 9 (-35%)	-5.0 / 5 (-100%)
26th Sep '20	UFC 253	6.25	-4.7	-74%	0.6 / 1 (60%)	-2.8 / 2.75 (-100%)	-2.5 / 2.5 (-100%)
19th Sep '20	UFC FN - Covington vs Woodley	10.15	-6.8	-67%	-2.6 / 6 (-43%)	-3.7 / 3.65 (-100%)	-0.5 / 0.5 (-100%)
16th Sep '20	DWCS 33	1	1.3	125%	1.3 / 1 (125%)
13th Sep '20	Bellator 246	3	-3.0	-100%	-3.0 / 3 (-100%)
12th Sep '20	UFC Fight Night 184	7.4	-1.6	-21%	-3.5 / 3.5 (-100%)	1.9 / 3.9 (50%)
9th Sep '20	DWCS 32	0.5	-0.5	-100%	-0.5 / 0.5 (-100%)
5th Sep '20	UFC Fight Night 183	5.7	0.3	6%	-1.0 / 4.9 (-20%)	1.3 / 0.8 (162%)
2nd Sep '20	DWCS 31	0.3	1.9	648%			1.9 / 0.3 (648%)
29th Aug '20	UFC Fight Night 182	6.7	-3.2	-48%	-2.5 / 2.5 (-100%)	-0.7 / 4.2 (-17%)
22nd Aug '20	UFC Vegas 7	5	4.0	80%	5.5 / 3.5 (157%)	-0.5 / 0.5 (-100%)	-1.0 / 1 (-100%)
21st Aug '20	Bellator 244	3.5	3.8	107%	3.8 / 3.5 (107%)
15th Aug '20	UFC 252	8.05	-2.0	-25%	-0.4 / 6.5 (-7%)	-1.6 / 1.55 (-100%)
8th Aug '20	UFC Vegas 6	5.2	2.5	48%	2.2 / 3.5 (63%)	0.3 / 1.7 (18%)
1st Aug '20	UFC Vegas 5	2.35	0.7	30%		0.7 / 2.35 (30%)
27th Jun '20	UFC Fight Night 175	2.5	-2.5	-100%	-1.0 / 1 (-100%)	-1.5 / 1.5 (-100%)
20th Jun '20	UFC Fight Night 174	4	-2.9	-72%	-2.4 / 3.5 (-68%)	-0.5 / 0.5 (-100%)
13th Jun '20	UFC Fight Night 173	3.8	0.2	6%	-0.6 / 2.5 (-24%)	-0.3 / 0.3 (-100%)	1.1 / 1 (110%)
6th Jun '20	UFC 250	7.4	-3.0	-41%	-3.0 / 5.5 (-54%)	0.1 / 1.75 (6%)	-0.2 / 0.15 (-100%)
30th May '20	UFC Fight Night 172	4.89	-1.9	-39%	0.0 / 2 (0%)	-1.8 / 2.75 (-64%)	-0.1 / 0.14 (-100%)
16th May '20	UFC Fight Night 171	5.07	1.4	28%	1.9 / 4.57 (41%)	-0.5 / 0.5 (-100%)
14th May '20	UFC Fight Night 170	4.75	0.5	11%	0.4 / 1.25 (34%)	1.1 / 2.5 (45%)	-1.0 / 1 (-100%)
10th May '20	UFC 249	7.25	-0.6	-8%	0.9 / 1 (85%)	-0.4 / 5.25 (-8%)	-1.0 / 1 (-100%)
14th Mar '20	UFC Fight Night 169	6	-1.6	-27%	0.0 / 4.4 (0%)	-0.4 / 0.35 (-100%)	-1.3 / 1.25 (-100%)
8th Mar '20	UFC 248	6.5	0.7	11%	0.5 / 5 (10%)	-0.3 / 0.25 (-100%)	0.5 / 1.25 (39%)
29th Feb '20	UFC Fight Night	7	-4.0	-57%	-2.0 / 5 (-40%)	-0.8 / 0.75 (-100%)	-1.3 / 1.25 (-100%)
22nd Feb '20	UFC Fight Night 168	7.85	-3.3	-42%	-1.9 / 6.5 (-30%)	-0.3 / 0.25 (-100%)	-1.1 / 1.1 (-100%)
15th Feb '20	UFC Fight Night 167	8.75	4.8	54%	2.9 / 8 (36%)	1.9 / 0.75 (250%)
9th Feb '20	UFC 247	6.25	4.6	73%	3.1 / 3 (103%)	0.7 / 2 (37%)	0.7 / 1.25 (57%)
25th Jan '20	UFC Fight Night 166	7	2.6	37%	1.0 / 3.5 (29%)	0.6 / 2.5 (26%)	1.0 / 1 (96%)
18th Jan '20	UFC 246	10.8	-5.0	-46%	-4.6 / 7.5 (-62%)	-0.0 / 1.5 (-2%)	-0.3 / 1.8 (-18%)
31st Aug '19	UFC Fight Night 157	9.5	-6.2	-65%	-2.7 / 6 (-45%)		-3.5 / 3.5 (-100%)
24th Aug '19	Bellator 225	1.5	1.6	105%	1.6 / 1.5 (105%)
17th Aug '19	UFC 241	11.3	-0.1	-1%	0.5 / 7.5 (7%)		-0.7 / 3.8 (-17%)

Winning Events: 20 (50%)
Losing Events: 20 (50%)

Average Staked Per Event: 9.35 units
Most Staked On One Event: 32.80 units
Best Event: 23.70 units
Worst Event: -12.80 units
Average Event: -0.18 units

Max Win Streak: Events: 3, Units: 27.76
Max Losing Streak: Events: 3, Units: -12.80

TheMMA Casual: Year on Year Profit

Year	Bet	Won	ROI	Straight Won / Bet (ROI%)	Prop Won / Bet (ROI%)	Parlay Won / Bet (ROI%)	Events Won / Lost (%)	Profit Per Event
2021	186.8	14.5	8%	28.3 / 120.8 (23%)	-6.9 / 51 (-14%)	-7.0 / 15 (-47%)	5 / 2 (71%)	2.07
2020	164.91	-17.1	-10%	-5.1 / 103.62 (-5%)	-7.0 / 44.8 (-16%)	-5.0 / 16.49 (-30%)	14 / 16 (47%)	-0.57
2019	22.3	-4.7	-21%	-0.6 / 15 (-4%)		-4.2 / 7.3 (-57%)	1 / 2 (33%)	-1.58

TheMMA Casual: Yearly Straight Pick Stats

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TheMMA Casual: Profit / Loss by Organization

Organization	Bet	Won	ROI	Straight Picks	Props	Parlays
UFC	364.21	-12.4	-3%	19.6 / 229.92 (9%)	-13.9 / 95.8 (-15%)	-18.1 / 38.49 (-47%)
Bellator	8	2.3	29%	2.3 / 8 (29%)
Other	1.8	2.7	150%	0.8 / 1.5 (50%)		1.9 / 0.3 (648%)

TheMMA Casual: Straight Pick Stats

Big favourite means >65% win chance according to bookies. Big underdog is <35% chance.

	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Units Bet	Units Profit	Profit per Pick	ROI
Big Favorites	13 (9%)	11	85 %	40.00	9.20	0.71	23%
Slight Favorites	49 (35%)	29	59 %	100.57	8.64	0.18	9%
Slight Underdogs	56 (40%)	23	41 %	78.50	-5.91	-0.11	-8%
Big Underdogs	22 (16%)	8	36 %	20.35	10.78	0.49	53%

Betting Stats By Card Position

	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Units Bet	Units Profit	Profit per Pick	ROI
Main Event	17 (12%)	8	47 %	34.25	-3.53	-0.21	-10%
Co-Main Event	17 (12%)	6	35 %	29.50	-9.99	-0.59	-34%
Position 3-5	40 (29%)	20	50 %	72.32	3.46	0.09	5%
6+ (Undercard)	66 (47%)	37	56 %	103.35	32.77	0.50	32%

TheMMA Casual: Profit by Weight Class

	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Units Bet	Units Profit	Profit per Pick	ROI
Heavyweight	7 (5%)	5	71 %	16.00	6.78	0.97	42%
Light Heavy	7 (5%)	3	43 %	10.50	1.87	0.27	18%
Middleweight	15 (11%)	10	67 %	30.30	11.55	0.77	38%
Welterweight	19 (14%)	11	58 %	34.50	3.23	0.17	9%
Lightweight	19 (14%)	11	58 %	32.00	1.18	0.06	4%
Featherweight	16 (11%)	7	44 %	26.57	3.39	0.21	13%
Bantamweight	18 (13%)	9	50 %	28.40	1.40	0.08	5%
Flyweight	11 (8%)	5	45 %	17.50	-1.66	-0.15	-9%

Women's Fights	28 (20%)	10	36 %	43.65	-5.02	-0.18	-12%
Bantamweight	7 (5%)	3	43 %	10.75	3.35	0.48	31%
Flyweight	11 (8%)	5	45 %	18.50	-0.33	-0.03	-2%
Strawweight	10 (7%)	2	20 %	14.40	-8.03	-0.80	-56%

Props & Parlay Section Stats (Individual sections of this handicapper's parlays)

Straight picks within parlays

	Picks	Correct	% Correct
Big Favorites	36 (44%)	28	78 %
Slight Favorites	27 (33%)	8	30 %
Slight Underdogs	16 (20%)	8	50 %
Big Underdogs	3 (4%)	2	67 %
	82	46	56 %

Props bets and props within parlays

	Picks	Correct	% Correct
>65% chance	9 (8%)	5	56 %
50-65%	21 (18%)	9	43 %
35-50%	20 (17%)	7	35 %
<35% chance	65 (57%)	12	18 %
	115	33	29 %

Prop Bets and Props within Parlays: Bet Types

Prop Type	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Avg Odds	Longest Odds	Shortest Odds	1U Bet (ROI %)
Over (e.g. 1.5 / 2.5 rnds)	5 (4%)	2	40 %	1.70	1.83	1.57	-1.6 (-33%)
Under (e.g. 1.5 / 2.5 rnds)	11 (10%)	4	36 %	1.90	2.65	1.57	-3.8 (-35%)
Goes to Decision	3 (3%)	1	33 %	2.01	3.20	1.36	-1.6 (-55%)
Does not go to Decision	2 (2%)	1	50 %	2.13	2.50	1.85	0.5 (25%)
Fight Doesn't Start Round X	1 (1%)	0	0 %	2.45	2.45	2.45	-1.0 (-100%)
X Wins by KO	13 (11%)	2	15 %	3.97	19.00	1.45	-10.1 (-78%)
X Wins by Sub	12 (10%)	1	8 %	10.79	19.00	7.00	3.0 (25%)
X Wins by Decision	8 (7%)	3	38 %	4.33	8.00	3.20	4.4 (56%)
X Wins Inside Distance	28 (24%)	8	29 %	2.77	10.00	1.40	-3.4 (-12%)
X Does NOT Win Inside Distance	1 (1%)	0	0 %	1.50	1.50	1.50	-1.0 (-100%)
X Wins in Round X	9 (8%)	3	33 %	4.91	19.00	2.63	3.2 (36%)
Others	22 (19%)	8	36 %	1.30	26.00	0.10	-3.3 (-15%)
	115	33	29 %	2.43			-14.7 (-13%)

* 1U Bet (ROI %): Many of the picks will have been part of a parlay, however, as a rough guide to value / profitability, this figure supposes that the handicapper put a 1U bet on each of the picks individually, showing the profit / loss they would have made and the ROI %.

Tail TheMMA Casual's bets

If you had tailed this handicapper's bets since they started logging their picks with us, it would have affected your betting bank balance as follows...

This is more accurate than simply X units total profit. Under that more basic system, 1 unit is equal to the same amount of theoretical dollars, whether it was the last event or 10 events ago. However, if a handicapper has 10 events profit in a row, their betting bank balance will be significantly larger for the 10th event and 1 unit will equal a LOT more than it did 10 events ago.

Date	Event	Bet	Won	ROI	Fee	1 unit =	Start	End
17th Aug	UFC 241	11.3	-0.1	-1%		$10.00	$1,000.00	$998.65
24th Aug	Bellator 225	1.5	1.6	105%		$9.99	$998.65	$1,014.37
31st Aug	UFC Fight Night 157	9.5	-6.2	-65%		$10.14	$1,014.37	$951.74
18th Jan	UFC 246	10.8	-5.0	-46%		$9.52	$951.74	$904.43
25th Jan	UFC Fight Night 166	7	2.6	37%		$9.04	$904.43	$927.98
9th Feb	UFC 247	6.25	4.6	73%		$9.28	$927.98	$970.29
15th Feb	UFC Fight Night 167	8.75	4.8	54%		$9.70	$970.29	$1,016.52
22nd Feb	UFC Fight Night 168	7.85	-3.3	-42%		$10.17	$1,016.52	$983.18
29th Feb	UFC Fight Night	7	-4.0	-57%		$9.83	$983.18	$943.85
8th Mar	UFC 248	6.5	0.7	11%		$9.44	$943.85	$950.84
14th Mar	UFC Fight Night 169	6	-1.6	-27%		$9.51	$950.84	$935.63
10th May	UFC 249	7.25	-0.6	-8%		$9.36	$935.63	$930.11
14th May	UFC Fight Night 170	4.75	0.5	11%		$9.30	$930.11	$935.13
16th May	UFC Fight Night 171	5.07	1.4	28%		$9.35	$935.13	$948.18
30th May	UFC Fight Night 172	4.89	-1.9	-39%		$9.48	$948.18	$930.26
6th Jun	UFC 250	7.4	-3.0	-41%		$9.30	$930.26	$901.93
13th Jun	UFC Fight Night 173	3.8	0.2	6%		$9.02	$901.93	$903.82
20th Jun	UFC Fight Night 174	4	-2.9	-72%		$9.04	$903.82	$877.84
27th Jun	UFC Fight Night 175	2.5	-2.5	-100%		$8.78	$877.84	$855.89
1st Aug	UFC Vegas 5	2.35	0.7	30%		$8.56	$855.89	$861.97
8th Aug	UFC Vegas 6	5.2	2.5	48%		$8.62	$861.97	$883.52
15th Aug	UFC 252	8.05	-2.0	-25%		$8.84	$883.52	$866.07
21st Aug	Bellator 244	3.5	3.8	107%		$8.66	$866.07	$898.63
22nd Aug	UFC Vegas 7	5	4.0	80%		$8.99	$898.63	$934.49
29th Aug	UFC Fight Night 182	6.7	-3.2	-48%		$9.34	$934.49	$904.58
2nd Sep	DWCS 31	0.3	1.9	648%		$9.05	$904.58	$922.17
5th Sep	UFC Fight Night 183	5.7	0.3	6%		$9.22	$922.17	$925.17
9th Sep	DWCS 32	0.5	-0.5	-100%		$9.25	$925.17	$920.54
12th Sep	UFC Fight Night 184	7.4	-1.6	-21%		$9.21	$920.54	$906.27
13th Sep	Bellator 246	3	-3.0	-100%		$9.06	$906.27	$879.08
16th Sep	DWCS 33	1	1.3	125%		$8.79	$879.08	$890.07
19th Sep	UFC FN - Covington vs Woodley	10.15	-6.8	-67%		$8.90	$890.07	$829.99
26th Sep	UFC 253	6.25	-4.7	-74%		$8.30	$829.99	$791.40
16th Jan	UFC FN	28	3.6	13%		$7.91	$791.40	$819.57
20th Jan	UFC on ESPN 20	29	5.3	18%		$8.20	$819.57	$862.68
24th Jan	UFC 257	32.8	-12.8	-39%		$8.63	$862.68	$752.26
6th Feb	UFC FN	30	23.7	79%		$7.52	$752.26	$930.54
14th Feb	UFC 258	24	3.0	13%		$9.31	$930.54	$958.92
20th Feb	UFC Fight Night 185	26	1.0	4%		$9.59	$958.92	$968.61
28th Feb	UFC Fight Night 186	17	-9.3	-55%		$9.69	$968.61	$878.33

ROI % from starting bank balance: -12.17% (including fees)
*Note - we don't store historical fee amounts, so we assume the fees are the same as the handicapper charges now.

TheMMA Casual: Last 20 Wins / Losses (Straight Picks)

Last 20 Wins

	Date	Straight Pick	Opponent	Odds	Bet	Result
1.	Feb '21	Alexis Davis	Sabina Mazo	2.88	1	U Decision (3 rounds)
2.	Feb '21	Ronnie Lawrence	Vince Cachero	1.60	3	TKO, R3 (2:38)
3.	Feb '21	Yana Kunitskaya	Ketlen Vieira	3.10	2	U Decision (3 rounds)
4.	Feb '21	Julian Erosa	Nate Landwehr	1.90	3	TKO, R1 (0:56)
5.	Feb '21	John Castaneda	Eddie Wineland	1.95	3	TKO, R1 (4:44)
6.	Feb '21	Gabriel Green	Phil Rowe	1.85	3	U Decision (3 rounds)
7.	Feb '21	Kamaru Usman	Gilbert Burns	1.40	5	TKO, R3 (0:34)
8.	Feb '21	Julian Marquez	Maki Pitolo	1.50	5	Sub, R3 (4:17)
9.	Feb '21	Ricky Simon	Brian Kelleher	1.40	5	U Decision (3 rounds)
10.	Feb '21	Alexander Volkov	Alistair Overeem	1.50	5	TKO, R2 (2:6)
11.	Feb '21	Seung Woo Choi	Youssef Zalal	2.90	3	U Decision (3 rounds)
12.	Feb '21	Lara Fritzen Procopio	Molly McCann	2.70	3	U Decision (3 rounds)
13.	Feb '21	Beneil Dariush	Carlos Diego Ferreira	1.85	5	Split Decision (3 rounds)
14.	Jan '21	Brad Tavares	Antonio Carlos Junior	3.00	1.8	U Decision (3 rounds)
15.	Jan '21	Amir Albazi	Zhalgas Zhumagulov	1.95	3	U Decision (3 rounds)
16.	Jan '21	Makhmud Muradov	Andrew Sanchez	1.75	5	TKO, R3 (2:59)
17.	Jan '21	Mike Davis	Mason Jones	1.62	3	U Decision (3 rounds)
18.	Jan '21	Francisco Figueiredo	Jerome Rivera	1.65	3	U Decision (3 rounds)
19.	Jan '21	Omari Akhmedov	Tom Breese	2.35	1	Sub, R2 (1:41)
20.	Jan '21	Ike Villanueva	Vinicius Moreira	1.75	3	TKO, R2 (0:39)

Last 20 Losses

	Date	Straight Pick	Opponent	Odds	Bet	Result	Hedge?
1.	Feb '21	Maxim Grishin	Dustin Jacoby	2.50	3	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
2.	Feb '21	Kevin Croom	Alex Caceres	2.88	1	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
3.	Feb '21	Jimmie Rivera	Pedro Munhoz	1.70	3	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
4.	Feb '21	Shana Dobson	Casey O'Neill	2.63	2	TKO, R2 (3:41)	No
5.	Feb '21	Danny Chavez	Jared Gordon	2.05	3	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
6.	Feb '21	Maycee Barber	Alexa Grasso	2.20	3	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
7.	Feb '21	Ian Heinisch	Kelvin Gastelum	2.88	3	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
8.	Feb '21	Manel Kape	Alexandre Pantoja	2.05	3	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
9.	Jan '21	Jessica Eye	Joanne Calderwood	2.05	3	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
10.	Jan '21	Sara McMann	Julianna Pena	1.83	3	Sub, R3 (3:39)	No
11.	Jan '21	Daniel Hooker	Michael Chandler	1.73	5	TKO, R1 (2:30)	No
12.	Jan '21	Victoria Leonardo	Manon Fiorot	2.70	1	TKO, R2 (4:8)	No
13.	Jan '21	Tyson Nam	Matt Schnell	1.80	2	Split Decision (3 rounds)	No
14.	Jan '21	Mounir Lazzez	Warlley Alves	1.75	3	TKO, R1 (2:35)	No
15.	Jan '21	Neil Magny	Michael Chiesa	1.75	3	U Decision (5 rounds)	No
16.	Sep '20	Jordan Espinosa	David Dvorak	2.30	2	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
17.	Sep '20	Journey Newson	Randy Costa	1.70	2	TKO, R1 (0:41)	No
18.	Sep '20	Jon Fitch	Neiman Gracie	2.25	2	Sub, R2 (4:47)	No
19.	Sep '20	Patrick Mix	Juan Archulata	1.90	1	U Decision (5 rounds)	No
20.	Sep '20	Justine Kish	Sabina Mazo	2.90	0.5	Sub, R3 (3:57)	No

* Hedge indicates that this handicapper also had a WINNING bet on the opponent. For example, they may have bet A to win straight up but with a hedge on the other fighter winning by decision.

TheMMA Casual: Progress Chart

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