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MMA Betting - Favorites vs Underdogs, which is better?!?!
When betting on MMA should you bet on the favorites or the underdogs? This page continually updates with all major MMA / UFC fights. We'll have a look at simply betting on all favorites or underdogs, we'll break things down by the position on the fight card and we'll look at all levels of underdog / favorite to see what sort of odds over / under-perform their predicted win percentage.

Note, these results use best available odds at either the time the lines closed, just before the fight, or around 7 hours before the first fight of the night, where possible (events after 7th Nov 2014). Of course, if you bet several days / weeks before the fight, you'll get different odds. It is very important with MMA betting to try and have a few different accounts, if you want to maximise profits. Very slightly better odds will have a significant cumulative effect on your winnings over time.

MMA / UFC Betting - Favorite vs Underdog Returns over Time
The following MMA stats are based on a $10 bet on the favourite / underdog for every fight on the card.

Show stats for

Date Event Favourite
Wins 		Underdog
Wins 		Avg Winner
Odds 		Favourites
(ROI) 		Underdogs
(ROI)
27th Apr 13 UFC 159 - Jones vs. Sonnen 8 3 +-100 $8.50 (8%) $-25.20 (-23%)
18th May 13 UFC on FX 8 - Belfort vs. Rockhold 12 1 +-100 $48.50 (37%) $-109.00 (-84%)
25th May 13 UFC 160 - Velasquez vs. Bigfoot 2 8 4 +-100 $-8.60 (-7%) $-4.40 (-4%)
27th Jul 13 UFC on Fox 8 - Johnson vs. Moraga 11 1 +-100 $43.00 (36%) $-87.00 (-73%)
3rd Aug 13 UFC 163 - Aldo vs. Korean Zombie 10 2 +-100 $18.80 (16%) $-42.50 (-35%)
17th Aug 13 UFC Fight Night 26 - Shogun vs. Sonnen 7 6 +-100 $-23.00 (-18%) $67.00 (52%)
16th Nov 13 UFC 167 - St. Pierre vs. Hendricks 10 2 +-100 $30.90 (26%) $-48.50 (-40%)
30th Nov 13 UFC - The Ultimate Fighter 18 Finale 7 3 +-100 $3.20 (3%) $-30.90 (-31%)
7th Dec 13 UFC Fight Night 33 - Hunt vs. Bigfoot 4 6 +-100 $-50.00 (-45%) $59.00 (54%)
28th Dec 13 UFC 168 - Weidman vs. Silva 2 7 4 +-100 $-10.60 (-10%) $-12.50 (-11%)
4th Jan 14 UFC Fight Night 34 - Saffiedine vs. Lim 7 3 +-100 $4.90 (5%) $-26.50 (-27%)
25th Jan 14 UFC on Fox 10 - Henderson vs. Thomson 8 3 +-100 $7.50 (7%) $0.00 (0%)
1st Feb 14 UFC 169 - Barao vs. Faber 2 8 4 +-100 $-0.40 (-0%) $-22.50 (-19%)
15th Feb 14 UFC Fight Night 36 - Machida vs. Mousasi 9 3 +-100 $14.50 (12%) $-40.90 (-34%)
23rd Mar 14 UFC Fight Night 38 - Shogun vs. Henderson 2 1 9 +-100 $-84.40 (-77%) $235.70 (214%)
16th Apr 14 UFC - The Ultimate Fighter Nations Finale 9 4 +-100 $-7.00 (-5%) $-28.10 (-22%)
19th Apr 14 UFC on Fox 11 - Werdum vs. Browne 9 4 +-100 $-1.20 (-1%) $-25.70 (-20%)
26th Apr 14 UFC 172 - Jones vs. Teixeira 7 3 +-100 $1.40 (1%) $-23.00 (-23%)
10th May 14 UFC Fight Night 40 - Brown vs. Silva 6 7 +-100 $-48.20 (-37%) $166.10 (128%)
7th Jun 14 UFC Fight Night 42 - Henderson vs. Khabilov 8 3 +-100 $2.80 (3%) $-44.50 (-40%)
14th Jun 14 UFC 174 - Johnson vs. Bagautinov 5 6 +-100 $-29.50 (-27%) $65.00 (59%)
28th Jun 14 UFC Fight Night 44 - Swanson vs. Stephens 8 3 +-100 $6.90 (6%) $-28.30 (-26%)
19th Jul 14 UFC Fight Night 46 - McGregor vs. Brandao 8 2 +-100 $19.30 (19%) $-43.00 (-43%)
26th Jul 14 UFC on Fox 12 - Lawler vs. Brown 10 2 +-100 $26.70 (22%) $-44.80 (-37%)
23rd Aug 14 UFC Fight Night 48 - Bisping vs. Le 7 3 +-100 $5.40 (5%) $-16.90 (-17%)
30th Aug 14 UFC 177 - Dillashaw vs. Soto 8 0 +-100 $45.00 (56%) $-80.00 (-100%)
13th Sep 14 UFC Fight Night 51 - Bigfoot vs. Arlovski 2 8 3 +-100 $19.30 (18%) $-16.00 (-15%)
20th Sep 14 UFC Fight Night 52 - Hunt vs. Nelson 9 3 +-100 $15.10 (13%) $-36.00 (-30%)
27th Sep 14 UFC 178 - Johnson vs. Cariaso 8 3 +-100 $0.10 (0%) $-30.20 (-27%)
7th Nov 14 UFC Fight Night - Rockhold vs. Bisping 4 5 -130 $-35.80 (-36%) $47.00 (47%)
8th Nov 14 UFC Fight Night - Shogun vs. St. Preux 7 3 -153 $2.30 (2%) $-22.90 (-23%)
15th Nov 14 UFC 180 - Werdum vs. Hunt 6 4 -123 $-11.70 (-12%) $18.40 (18%)
15th Nov 14 Belator 131 - Tito vs Bonnar 3 2 -154 $-9.16 (-18%) $5.07 (10%)
22nd Nov 14 UFC Fight Night - Edgar vs. Swanson 8 4 -123 $2.10 (2%) $4.10 (3%)
6th Dec 14 UFC 181 - Hendricks vs. Lawler 2 7 4 -163 $-16.30 (-15%) $-6.95 (-6%)
12th Dec 14 UFC - The Ultimate Fighter 20 Finale 6 4 -159 $-17.80 (-18%) $-4.10 (-4%)
13th Dec 14 WSOF 16 - Palhares vs. Fitch 2 0 -136 $14.79 (74%) $-20.00 (-100%)
13th Dec 14 UFC on Fox 13 - Dos Santos vs. Miocic 8 4 -131 $-4.70 (-4%) $17.40 (15%)
20th Dec 14 UFC Fight Night - Machida vs. Dollaway 9 3 -166 $8.83 (7%) $-23.95 (-20%)
3rd Jan 15 UFC 182 - Jones vs. Cormier 7 4 -152 $-11.81 (-11%) $-4.31 (-4%)
18th Jan 15 UFC Fight Night - McGregor vs. Siver 9 2 -149 $22.00 (18%) $-64.00 (-53%)
24th Jan 15 UFC on Fox 14 - Gustafsson vs. Johnson 5 7 -106 $-49.60 (-41%) $90.10 (75%)
31st Jan 15 UFC 183 - Silva vs. Diaz 7 4 -146 $-9.10 (-8%) $-5.70 (-5%)
14th Feb 15 UFC Fight Night - Henderson vs Thatch 7 3 -166 $1.80 (2%) $-28.60 (-29%)
22nd Feb 15 UFC Fight Night - Mir vs. Bigfoot 1 10 +221 $-95.50 (-87%) $293.00 (266%)
28th Feb 15 UFC 184 - Rousey vs. Zingano 8 2 -186 $12.00 (12%) $-39.20 (-39%)
14th Mar 15 UFC 185 - Pettis vs. Dos Anjos 7 5 -139 $-27.70 (-23%) $55.00 (46%)
21st Mar 15 UFC Fight Night - Maia vs. LaFlare 8 4 -154 $-5.38 (-4%) $-14.76 (-12%)
4th Apr 15 UFC Fight Night - Mendes vs. Lamas 7 3 -146 $6.50 (7%) $-23.30 (-23%)
10th Apr 15 Bellator 136 - Brooks vs. Jansen 1 1 +-100 $-8.30 (-42%) $4.30 (22%)
11th Apr 15 UFC Fight Night - Gonzaga vs. Cro Cop 2 7 5 -103 $-6.00 (-5%) $54.00 (45%)
18th Apr 15 UFC on Fox 15 - Rockhold vs. Machida 7 4 -122 $-2.60 (-2%) $27.60 (25%)
25th Apr 15 UFC 186 - Johnson vs. Horiguchi 11 1 -213 $37.30 (31%) $-91.40 (-76%)
9th May 15 UFC Fight Night - Hunt vs. Miocic 4 8 +107 $-57.99 (-48%) $89.11 (74%)
16th May 15 UFC Fight Night - Edgar vs. Faber 8 4 -128 $7.30 (6%) $-11.70 (-10%)
23rd May 15 UFC 187 - Cormier vs. Johnson 8 2 -198 $1.13 (1%) $-8.90 (-8%)
30th May 15 UFC Fight Night - Condit vs. Alves 9 3 -148 $15.70 (13%) $-36.90 (-31%)
6th Jun 15 UFC Fight Night - Boetsch vs. Henderson 6 6 +107 $-17.67 (-15%) $40.82 (34%)
13th Jun 15 UFC 188 - Velasquez vs. Werdum 4 7 -109 $-61.00 (-55%) $103.50 (94%)
20th Jun 15 UFC Fight Night - Jedrzejczyk vs. Penne 7 4 -123 $-3.07 (-3%) $8.69 (8%)
27th Jun 15 UFC Fight Night - Machida vs. Romero 6 3 -147 $0.20 (0%) $-21.50 (-24%)
11th Jul 15 UFC 189 - McGregor vs. Mendes 6 5 -135 $-24.98 (-23%) $20.66 (19%)
12th Jul 15 UFC - The Ultimate Fighter 21 Finale 6 5 -128 $-18.62 (-17%) $17.96 (16%)
15th Jul 15 UFC Fight Night - Mir vs. Duffee 9 2 -179 $19.20 (16%) $-62.00 (-52%)
17th Jul 15 Bellator 140 - Lima vs. Koreshkov 1 1 -188 $-9.09 (-45%) $5.77 (29%)
18th Jul 15 UFC Fight Night - Bisping vs. Leites 10 2 -161 $35.10 (29%) $-67.82 (-57%)
25th Jul 15 UFC on Fox 16 - Dillashaw vs. Barao 2 7 5 -121 $-9.91 (-8%) $3.52 (3%)
1st Aug 15 UFC 190 - Rousey vs. Correia 9 4 -138 $2.32 (2%) $-1.76 (-1%)
1st Aug 15 WSOF 22 - Palhares vs. Shields 3 0 -186 $17.02 (57%) $-30.00 (-100%)
8th Aug 15 UFC Fight Night - St. Preux vs. Teixeira 9 3 -172 $7.90 (6%) $-42.10 (-32%)
23rd Aug 15 UFC Fight Night 74 - Holloway vs. Oliveira 5 7 +104 $-45.40 (-38%) $85.20 (71%)
28th Aug 15 Bellator 141 - Guillard vs. Girtz 3 2 -135 $-7.10 (-14%) $14.70 (29%)
5th Sep 15 UFC 191 - Johnson vs. Dodson 2 5 6 -120 $-40.80 (-37%) $62.50 (57%)
19th Sep 15 Bellator 142 - Dynamite 4 0 -455 $9.10 (23%) $-40.00 (-100%)
25th Sep 15 Bellator 143: Davis vs. Warren 2 0 -252 $8.70 (44%) $-20.00 (-100%)
26th Sep 15 UFC Fight Night - Barnett vs. Nelson 7 2 -150 $10.80 (11%) $0.70 (1%)
3rd Oct 15 UFC 192 - Cormier vs. Gustafsson 9 3 -175 $7.61 (6%) $-48.67 (-41%)
17th Oct 15 WSOF 24: Fitch vs. Okami 5 2 -260 $-5.40 (-6%) $-26.60 (-30%)
23rd Oct 15 Bellator 144: Halsey vs. Carvalho 1 1 +167 $-4.30 (-22%) $70.00 (350%)
24th Oct 15 UFC Fight Night 76 - Holohan vs. Smolka 6 2 -130 $14.96 (15%) $-18.41 (-18%)
31st Oct 15 KSW 32 - Road to Wembley 3 1 -121 $7.10 (18%) $-3.50 (-9%)
6th Nov 15 Bellator 145 - Vengeance 1 1 +111 $-7.30 (-24%) $11.00 (37%)
7th Nov 15 UFC Fight Night 77: Belfort vs. Henderson 3 10 3 -178 $14.10 (11%) $-59.00 (-45%)
14th Nov 15 UFC 193 - Rousey vs. Holm 8 5 -141 $-18.30 (-14%) $104.50 (80%)
20th Nov 15 Bellator 146: Kato vs. Manhoef 3 1 +535 $7.20 (14%) $-18.00 (-36%)
20th Nov 15 WSOF 25 - 8-Man Lightweight Tournament 3 1 -206 $-2.30 (-6%) $-7.00 (-18%)
21st Nov 15 UFC Fight Night 78 - Magny vs. Gastelum 7 6 -112 $-21.40 (-16%) $35.40 (27%)
28th Nov 15 UFC Fight Night 79 - Henderson vs. Masvidal 5 6 -121 $-35.20 (-32%) $29.90 (27%)
28th Nov 15 KSW 33 - Materla vs. Khalidov 1 2 -117 $-15.10 (-38%) $27.35 (68%)
4th Dec 15 Bellator 147: Thomson vs. Villaseca 2 1 -162 $-0.90 (-2%) $-8.40 (-21%)
10th Dec 15 UFC Fight Night - VanZant vs Namajunas 8 3 -174 $3.00 (3%) $-32.42 (-29%)
12th Dec 15 UFC - The Ultimate Fighter 22 Finale 7 3 -133 $14.90 (15%) $-33.80 (-34%)
12th Dec 15 UFC 194 - Aldo vs. McGregor 6 6 -128 $-34.30 (-29%) $55.40 (46%)
19th Dec 15 UFC on Fox 17 - Dos Anjos vs. Cerrone 2 5 7 +130 $-35.30 (-29%) $117.60 (98%)
31st Dec 15 Rizin FF - 2 1 0 -1,000 $1.00 (10%) $-10.00 (-100%)
2nd Jan 16 UFC 195 - Lawler vs Condit 7 4 -123 $-2.70 (-2%) $3.20 (3%)
17th Jan 16 UFC Fight Night - Dillashaw vs. Cruz 6 7 -116 $-43.20 (-33%) $52.80 (41%)
23rd Jan 16 WSOF 27: Firmino vs. Fodor 2 0 -241 $8.30 (42%) $-20.00 (-100%)
29th Jan 16 Bellator 148 - Daley vs. Uhrich 2 0 -303 $4.70 (16%) $-20.00 (-67%)
30th Jan 16 UFC on Fox 18 - Johnson vs. Bader 8 4 -113 $9.70 (7%) $0.80 (1%)
6th Feb 16 UFC Fight Night 82 - Hendricks vs. Thompson 6 6 -126 $-37.30 (-31%) $50.80 (42%)
19th Feb 16 Bellator 149: Shamrock vs. Gracie 3 2 3 +101 $-18.10 (-36%) $28.50 (57%)
21st Feb 16 UFC Fight Night 82 - Cerrone vs. Oliveira 9 4 -142 $6.00 (5%) $-22.07 (-17%)
26th Feb 16 Bellator 150 - Galvao vs. Dantas 2 2 1 -173 $-2.40 (-8%) $-6.50 (-22%)
27th Feb 16 UFC Fight Night 84 - Silva vs. Bisping 10 3 -161 $18.61 (14%) $-48.69 (-37%)
4th Mar 16 Bellator 151 - Warren vs. Caldwell 1 3 +127 $-27.20 (-68%) $62.20 (156%)
4th Mar 16 Titan FC 37 - Simon vs. Dos Santos 1 0 -667 $1.50 (15%) $-10.00 (-100%)
5th Mar 16 UFC 196 - McGregor vs. Diaz 5 7 +117 $-41.90 (-35%) $109.10 (91%)
11th Mar 16 Invicta FC 16 - Hamasaki vs. Brown 2 3 +105 $-17.80 (-36%) $26.00 (52%)
12th Mar 16 WSOF 29 - Gaethje vs. Foster 1 1 -163 $-6.90 (-35%) $1.00 (5%)
19th Mar 16 UFC Fight Night 84 - Hunt vs. Mir 5 7 -109 $-42.80 (-36%) $65.50 (55%)
3rd Apr 16 WSOF 30: Branch vs. Starks 3 0 -242 $12.50 (42%) $-30.00 (-100%)
10th Apr 16 UFC Fight Night 86 - Zagreb 9 4 -130 $17.40 (13%) $-38.50 (-30%)
16th Apr 16 UFC on Fox 19 - Teixeira vs. Evans 8 3 -146 $13.60 (12%) $-34.00 (-31%)
17th Apr 16 Bellator 152 - Freire vs. Souza 1 2 -134 $-18.60 (-62%) $17.50 (58%)
23rd Apr 16 Bellator 153 - Koreshkov vs. Henderson 3 2 -129 $-10.90 (-22%) $37.20 (74%)
23rd Apr 16 UFC 197 - Jones vs. St Preux 10 2 -184 $25.60 (21%) $-68.00 (-57%)
7th May 16 Invicta FC 17: Evinger vs. Schneider 3 2 -142 $-6.00 (-12%) $-3.50 (-7%)
8th May 16 UFC Fight Night - Overeem vs. Arlovski 9 4 -163 $-2.60 (-2%) $-33.50 (-26%)
14th May 16 UFC 198 - Werdum vs. Miocic 6 5 -126 $-27.30 (-23%) $53.50 (45%)
15th May 16 Bellator 154 - Davis vs. King Mo 2 0 -199 $10.10 (51%) $-20.00 (-100%)
20th May 16 Bellator 155 - Carvalho vs. Manhoef 4 1 -127 $11.00 (22%) $10.10 (20%)
29th May 16 UFC Fight Night - Almeida vs. Garbrandt 6 5 -108 $-12.60 (-11%) $25.50 (21%)
4th Jun 16 UFC 199 - Rockhold vs Bisping 2 7 5 -102 $-6.70 (-5%) $59.50 (46%)
10th Jun 16 Titan FC 39: Cavalcante vs. Healy 5 2 +-100 $3.50 (5%) $-20.40 (-29%)
17th Jun 16 Bellator 156 - Galvao vs. Dantas 2 1 0 -154 $6.50 (65%) $-10.00 (-100%)
18th Jun 16 UFC Fight Night - MacDonald vs. Thompson 10 3 -140 $31.10 (24%) $-57.20 (-44%)
24th Jun 16 Bellator 157 - Dynamite 2 2 1 +-100 $-3.50 (-12%) $-5.50 (-18%)
7th Jul 16 UFC Fight Night - Dos Anjos vs. Alvarez 8 4 -140 $3.30 (3%) $-21.00 (-18%)
8th Jul 16 UFC - The Ultimate Fighter 23 Finale 9 3 -147 $21.00 (18%) $-49.90 (-42%)
9th Jul 16 UFC 200 - Tate vs. Nunes 7 5 -146 $-19.90 (-17%) $0.50 (0%)
13th Jul 16 UFC Fight Night 91 - McDonald vs. Lineker 4 8 -100 $-64.40 (-54%) $90.00 (75%)
16th Jul 16 Bellator 158 - Daley vs. Lima 4 0 +-100 $12.70 (32%) $-40.00 (-100%)
23rd Jul 16 UFC on Fox 20 - Holm vs. Shevchenko 6 5 -131 $-24.20 (-22%) $18.50 (17%)
29th Jul 16 Invicta FC 18 - Grasso vs. Esquibel 2 0 +-100 $8.90 (45%) $-20.00 (-100%)
30th Jul 16 UFC 201 - Lawler vs. Woodley 6 4 -118 $-3.30 (-3%) $5.50 (5%)
6th Aug 16 UFC Fight Night 92 - Rodriguez vs. Caceres 11 1 -169 $52.90 (44%) $-98.00 (-82%)
20th Aug 16 UFC 202 - Diaz vs. McGregor 2 9 3 -146 $20.10 (17%) $-42.00 (-35%)
26th Aug 16 Bellator 160 Henderson vs. Pitbull 1 0 -200 $5.00 (50%) $-10.00 (-100%)
27th Aug 16 UFC on Fox 21 - Condit vs. Maia 7 3 -150 $5.70 (6%) $-32.00 (-32%)
3rd Sep 16 UFC Fight Night - Arlovski vs. Barnett 7 3 -169 $0.20 (0%) $-30.70 (-28%)
10th Sep 16 UFC 203 - Miocic vs. Overeem 9 1 -164 $43.00 (43%) $-77.00 (-77%)
17th Sep 16 UFC Fight Night 94 - Poirier vs. Johnson 7 4 -151 $-7.70 (-6%) $-17.70 (-15%)
23rd Sep 16 Invicta FC 19 Maia vs. Modafferi 1 0 -233 $4.30 (43%) $-10.00 (-100%)
24th Sep 16 UFC Fight Night 95 - Brasilia 8 5 -128 $-8.90 (-7%) $33.00 (25%)
1st Oct 16 UFC Fight Night 96 - Lineker vs. Dodson 4 8 +123 $-52.70 (-44%) $114.00 (95%)
7th Oct 16 WSOF 33 Gaethje vs. Dugulubgov 2 2 -194 $-11.10 (-28%) $9.20 (23%)
8th Oct 16 UFC 204 - Bisping vs. Henderson 2 6 5 -128 $-23.40 (-21%) $20.50 (19%)
21st Oct 16 Bellator 162 Shlemenko vs. Grove 5 1 -180 $13.30 (22%) $-36.40 (-61%)
5th Nov 16 UFC Mexico City 8 5 -142 $-10.70 (-8%) $-12.20 (-9%)
12th Nov 16 UFC 205 - New York City 5 5 -115 $-23.10 (-21%) $24.80 (23%)
19th Nov 16 UFC Fight Night 99 - Mousasi vs. Hall 10 3 -131 $31.90 (25%) $-42.50 (-33%)
19th Nov 16 UFC Fight Night 100 Bader vs. Nogueira 2 8 4 -159 $-5.80 (-5%) $-25.20 (-21%)
19th Nov 16 Bellator 165 Chandler vs. Henderson 3 0 -202 $15.70 (52%) $-30.00 (-100%)
26th Nov 16 UFC Fight Night 101 5 8 +116 $-38.80 (-30%) $82.50 (63%)
2nd Dec 16 Bellator 166 Dantas vs. Warren 2 1 0 +-100 $4.90 (49%) $-10.00 (-100%)
3rd Dec 16 UFC - The Ultimate Fighter 24 Finale 8 4 -136 $7.40 (6%) $-26.20 (-22%)
9th Dec 16 UFC Fight Night 102 Albany 12 0 -219 $56.30 (47%) $-120.00 (-100%)
10th Dec 16 UFC 206 6 5 -113 $-14.30 (-12%) $15.00 (13%)
17th Dec 16 UFC on Fox 22 9 4 -114 $22.20 (17%) $-17.80 (-14%)
31st Dec 16 UFC 207 6 3 -112 $10.30 (11%) $-11.50 (-13%)
14th Jan 17 Invicta FC 21 Anderson vs. Tweet 2 2 +-100 $-12.50 (-31%) $17.40 (44%)
15th Jan 17 UFC Fight Night 103 Rodriguez vs. Penn 10 2 -142 $44.90 (37%) $-74.00 (-62%)
28th Jan 17 UFC on FOX 23 Shevchenko vs. Pena 9 3 -145 $25.00 (21%) $-58.60 (-49%)
4th Feb 17 UFC FN 104 K. Zombie vs. Bermudez 7 5 -116 $-13.00 (-11%) $33.40 (28%)
11th Feb 17 UFC 208 8 2 -202 $12.40 (12%) $-54.20 (-54%)
18th Feb 17 Bellator 172 1 2 +123 $-16.40 (-55%) $36.50 (122%)
19th Feb 17 UFC Fight Night 105 Lewis vs. Browne 8 3 -163 $7.20 (7%) $-33.00 (-30%)
4th Mar 17 UFC 209 6 5 +124 $-4.30 (-4%) $87.60 (80%)
11th Mar 17 UFC Fight Night 106 Belfort vs. Gastelum 9 2 -141 $33.90 (28%) $-53.50 (-45%)
18th Mar 17 UFC Fight Night 107 Manuwa vs. Anderson 6 5 -137 $-22.80 (-21%) $5.80 (5%)
18th Mar 17 WSOF 35 Ivanov vs. Jordan 4 0 -186 $22.70 (57%) $-40.00 (-100%)
25th Mar 17 Invicta FC 22 2 2 -103 $-8.60 (-22%) $15.70 (39%)
8th Apr 17 UFC 210 - Cormier vs. Johnson 2 8 5 -144 $-12.80 (-10%) $-6.90 (-5%)
15th Apr 17 UFC on Fox 24 - Johnson vs Reis 9 4 -147 $0.40 (0%) $-8.50 (-7%)
16th Apr 17 Rizin FF 5: Sakura 2 0 +-100 $6.70 (34%) $-20.00 (-100%)
22nd Apr 17 UFC Fight Night 108 Swanson vs. Lobov 11 2 -181 $35.70 (27%) $-84.50 (-65%)
13th May 17 UFC 211 - Miocic vs. Dos Santos 7 4 -131 $3.90 (4%) $-21.50 (-20%)
19th May 17 Bellator 179 Daley vs. MacDonald 2 1 -171 $-3.47 (-12%) $-4.00 (-13%)
28th May 17 UFC Fight Night 109 Gustafsson Vs Teixeira 7 5 -117 $-15.80 (-13%) $48.00 (40%)
3rd Jun 17 UFC 212 Aldo vs Holloway 9 3 -131 $22.00 (18%) $-29.00 (-24%)
10th Jun 17 UFC Fight Night 110 Hunt vs. Lewis 7 4 -146 $-7.30 (-7%) $-13.50 (-12%)
17th Jun 17 UFC Fight Night 111 10 2 -197 $18.80 (16%) $-45.90 (-38%)
24th Jun 17 Bellator 180 Sonnen vs. Silva 3 3 +115 $-10.51 (-13%) $58.00 (73%)
25th Jun 17 UFC Fight Night 112 9 4 -134 $8.70 (7%) $-15.80 (-12%)
7th Jul 17 TUF Season 25 Finale 7 4 -142 $-10.20 (-9%) $6.00 (5%)
8th Jul 17 UFC 213 10 0 -162 $51.00 (46%) $-100.00 (-91%)
11th Jul 17 Dana White's TNCS 1 4 1 -126 $18.30 (37%) $-22.60 (-45%)
16th Jul 17 UFC Fight Night 113 9 2 -137 $22.70 (19%) $-58.00 (-48%)
18th Jul 17 Dana White's TNCS 2 2 0 +320 $13.78 (28%) $-20.00 (-40%)
22nd Jul 17 UFC on Fox 25 6 7 -105 $-40.90 (-31%) $61.60 (47%)
25th Jul 17 DWTNF 3 1 4 +-100 $-35.48 (-71%) $36.40 (73%)
4th Aug 17 LFA 18: Aguilar VS. Rader 1 1 +-100 $-3.29 (-16%) $1.10 (6%)
8th Aug 17 DWTNCS 5 4 1 -175 $10.13 (20%) $-30.00 (-60%)
15th Aug 17 DWTNCS 6 3 2 +-100 $-1.80 (-4%) $7.00 (14%)
2nd Sep 17 UFC Fight Night Struve vs. Volkov 11 1 -200 $42.00 (35%) $-93.50 (-78%)
9th Sep 17 UFC 215 4 7 +111 $-50.90 (-46%) $109.00 (99%)
16th Sep 17 UFC Fight Night 116 Rockhold vs. Branch 8 2 -181 $15.80 (16%) $-42.50 (-43%)
22nd Sep 17 UFC Fight Night 117 St. Preux vs. Shogun 2 5 4 +102 $-14.50 (-15%) $18.80 (19%)
7th Oct 17 UFC 216 6 3 -124 $1.25 (1%) $22.00 (20%)
21st Oct 17 UFC Fight Night 118 Gdansk 9 2 -175 $24.40 (22%) $-63.00 (-57%)
4th Nov 17 UFC 217 4 5 +176 $-21.70 (-20%) $94.50 (86%)
11th Nov 17 UFC Fight Night 120 Virginia 8 5 -133 $-12.17 (-9%) $11.80 (9%)
18th Nov 17 UFC Fight Night 121 Sydney 10 3 -148 $20.20 (16%) $-28.00 (-22%)
25th Nov 17 UFC Fight Night 122 Bisping vs. Gastellum 8 3 -125 $15.13 (13%) $-19.50 (-16%)
1st Dec 17 Bellator 189 2 2 +-100 $-11.40 (-29%) $9.90 (25%)
2nd Dec 17 TUF 26 Finale 7 3 +-100 $1.99 (2%) $11.50 (10%)
9th Dec 17 UFC Fight Night 123 8 5 -111 $-3.00 (-2%) $26.00 (20%)
16th Dec 17 UFC on Fox 26 Lawler vs. dos Anjos 7 4 -101 $10.98 (10%) $3.90 (4%)
31st Dec 17 UFC 219 5 4 -110 $-16.94 (-17%) $38.90 (39%)
14th Jan 18 UFC Fight Night 124 6 5 -112 $-13.40 (-12%) $19.30 (18%)
20th Jan 18 UFC 220 6 5 -124 $-18.56 (-17%) $8.90 (8%)
20th Jan 18 Bellator 192 2 1 +-100 $-1.80 (-4%) $-4.50 (-9%)
27th Jan 18 UFC on Fox 27 9 3 +-100 $29.82 (25%) $-38.70 (-32%)
4th Feb 18 UFC Fight Night 125 5 4 -118 $-18.60 (-17%) $25.00 (23%)
10th Feb 18 UFC 221 9 3 +-100 $25.73 (21%) $-43.30 (-36%)
17th Feb 18 Bellator 194 3 1 +-100 $5.97 (15%) $-18.50 (-46%)
18th Feb 18 UFC Fight Night 126 7 4 +-100 $0.80 (1%) $-8.00 (-7%)
24th Feb 18 UFC on Fox 28 6 6 +-100 $-23.97 (-20%) $61.00 (51%)
3rd Mar 18 UFC 222 8 4 -125 $8.54 (7%) $1.70 (1%)
17th Mar 18 UFC Fight Night 127 4 6 +116 $-40.97 (-41%) $113.90 (114%)
7th Apr 18 UFC 223 4 5 -146 $-36.12 (-40%) $18.30 (20%)
14th Apr 18 UFC on Fox 29 9 5 -134 $-0.15 (-0%) $-10.90 (-8%)
20th Apr 18 LFA 37 1 0 +-100 $1.67 (17%) $-10.00 (-100%)
21st Apr 18 UFC Fight Night 128 9 2 -142 $35.16 (32%) $-59.00 (-54%)
12th May 18 UFC 224 9 3 -164 $13.31 (10%) $-55.00 (-42%)
25th May 18 Bellator 200 4 1 +-100 $-0.70 (-1%) $-29.00 (-58%)
27th May 18 UFC Fight Night 130 5 6 -117 $-40.99 (-37%) $61.00 (55%)
1st Jun 18 UFC Fight Night 131 10 2 -183 $27.08 (23%) $-74.20 (-62%)
9th Jun 18 UFC 225 11 2 -149 $45.63 (35%) $-79.00 (-61%)
21st Jun 18 PFL 2 4 3 +-100 $-16.04 (-18%) $84.50 (94%)
23rd Jun 18 UFC Fight Night 132 9 4 -153 $2.22 (2%) $-30.50 (-23%)
7th Jul 18 TUF 27 Finale 6 6 -105 $-22.10 (-18%) $30.50 (25%)
7th Jul 18 UFC 226 3 7 +157 $-47.26 (-43%) $94.60 (86%)
10th Jul 18 DWTNCS 12 4 1 +-100 $11.89 (24%) $-25.80 (-52%)
14th Jul 18 UFC Fight Night 133 7 6 -106 $-8.82 (-7%) $10.30 (8%)
19th Jul 18 PFL 4 3 4 +-100 $-35.84 (-45%) $57.90 (72%)
22nd Jul 18 UFC Fight Night 134 7 6 -129 $-25.60 (-20%) $8.40 (6%)
24th Jul 18 DWTNCS 14 4 1 +-100 $13.78 (28%) $-17.00 (-34%)
28th Jul 18 UFC on Fox 30 9 3 -146 $20.23 (16%) $-50.50 (-39%)
31st Jul 18 DWTNCS 15 4 1 +-100 $3.30 (7%) $-11.50 (-23%)
4th Aug 18 UFC 227 8 4 -140 $-0.88 (-1%) $-1.50 (-1%)
7th Aug 18 DWTNCS 16 3 1 +-100 $-3.74 (-7%) $-14.50 (-29%)
25th Aug 18 UFC Fight Night 135 8 4 -146 $-2.72 (-2%) $-15.00 (-12%)
8th Sep 18 UFC 228 9 4 -144 $8.30 (6%) $-29.20 (-22%)
15th Sep 18 UFC FIght Night Moscow 10 2 -263 $11.38 (9%) $-75.00 (-63%)
22nd Sep 18 UFC Fight Night Sao Paulo 9 3 -131 $11.86 (8%) $-29.70 (-21%)
6th Oct 18 UFC 229 7 5 -134 $-19.01 (-16%) $12.70 (11%)
12th Oct 18 Bellator 207 3 1 +110 $5.29 (11%) $-5.00 (-10%)
27th Oct 18 UFC Fight Night 138 8 5 -131 $-13.22 (-10%) $23.40 (18%)
3rd Nov 18 UFC 230 6 5 -131 $-32.70 (-27%) $54.80 (46%)
10th Nov 18 UFC Fight Night Denver 10 2 -158 $35.82 (30%) $-67.50 (-56%)
15th Nov 18 Bellator 209 1 2 +-100 $-17.15 (-34%) $29.90 (60%)
17th Nov 18 UFC Fight Night 140 7 5 -127 $-16.44 (-14%) $12.60 (11%)
24th Nov 18 UFC Fight Night 141 7 5 -144 $-23.49 (-20%) $21.10 (18%)
30th Nov 18 TUF Finale 10 2 -146 $30.69 (24%) $-77.10 (-59%)
1st Dec 18 UFC Fight Night 142 9 3 -162 $10.79 (9%) $-20.90 (-17%)
8th Dec 18 UFC 231 9 4 -124 $10.76 (8%) $4.00 (3%)
15th Dec 18 Fight Night Milwaukee 7 5 -130 $-17.10 (-14%) $18.50 (15%)
29th Dec 18 UFC 232 8 4 -116 $4.40 (3%) $-25.70 (-20%)
31st Dec 18 Rizin 14 3 3 +-100 $-17.87 (-30%) $38.70 (65%)
19th Jan 19 UFC on ESPN+ 1 6 7 -113 $-45.78 (-35%) $75.70 (58%)
26th Jan 19 Bellator Los Angeles 2 1 +298 $48.13 (120%) $23.70 (59%)
2nd Feb 19 UFC Fight Night 144 5 7 +123 $-39.45 (-30%) $74.90 (58%)
9th Feb 19 UFC 234 9 1 -163 $30.53 (28%) $-80.00 (-73%)
17th Feb 19 UFC on ESPN 1 7 5 -131 $-12.43 (-10%) $-1.40 (-1%)
23rd Feb 19 UFC Fight Night 145 10 3 -130 $31.52 (24%) $-33.10 (-25%)
2nd Mar 19 UFC 235 8 4 -135 $-1.33 (-1%) $-1.50 (-1%)
9th Mar 19 Cage Warriors 103 1 0 +-100 $5.92 (30%) $-10.00 (-50%)
9th Mar 19 UFC Fight Night 146 8 5 -121 $-2.48 (-2%) $-6.30 (-5%)
16th Mar 19 UFC Fight Night 147 8 3 -105 $19.81 (17%) $-31.50 (-26%)
23rd Mar 19 UFC Fight Night 148 6 6 -118 $-33.21 (-28%) $44.30 (37%)
30th Mar 19 UFC on ESPN 2 6 7 -118 $-41.55 (-32%) $43.30 (33%)
13th Apr 19 UFC 236 8 5 -112 $2.36 (2%) $-0.40 (-0%)
20th Apr 19 UFC Fight Night 149 8 2 -145 $21.15 (19%) $-39.50 (-36%)
27th Apr 19 UFC on ESPN 3 8 4 -107 $7.96 (6%) $-15.00 (-12%)
4th May 19 UFC Fight Night 150 7 5 -139 $-14.49 (-12%) $-8.00 (-7%)
11th May 19 Bellator 221 4 1 -266 $-0.50 (-1%) $-22.00 (-44%)
18th May 19 UFC Fight Night 152 7 6 -145 $-39.60 (-30%) $38.40 (30%)
23rd May 19 PFL 2019: Week 2 9 1 +-100 $21.70 (22%) $-50.00 (-50%)
1st Jun 19 UFC Fight Night 153 6 6 +106 $-16.17 (-13%) $48.00 (40%)
8th Jun 19 UFC 238 9 3 -149 $17.92 (14%) $-44.50 (-34%)
19th Jun 19 DWTNCS 17 3 1 +-100 $2.53 (6%) $37.50 (94%)
26th Jun 19 DWTNCS 18 4 1 +-100 $0.33 (1%) $-1.00 (-2%)
    1753 (65%) 931 (35%) +116 $-571.36 (-2%) $-275.36 (-1%)

MMA Fighter Win % Breakdown by Odds
Key

% Win Chance: A conversion of the bookmaker's odds into their % probability of a win for fighters in this odds range.
% Won: The percentage of fighters that actually won in that odds range.
Avg % Win Chance: The average bookmaker odds for the fighters in this odds range.
= Odds of: Avg % Win Chance converted into odds format.
Over / Under Perform: Here we compare the Avg % Win Chance (i.e. what percentage of the fights the bookmaker says these fighters should win), with how many actually won. Over performing means more fighters are winning in this odds bracket than should and under performing (negative number) means this odds range under performs and would not be good to bet on.

% Win Chance =Odds Fights Won Lost % Won % Won Avg % Win Chance = Odds Over / Under Perform Bet $10 on
all fights (ROI)
<10% +900 12 1 11
 
8% 8% +1,154 0%
 
$5 (4%)
10-15% +900 to +567 77 6 71
 
8% 13% +680 -5%
 
$-302 (-39%)
15-20% +567 to +400 142 24 118
 
17% 18% +466 -1%
 
$-63 (-4%)
20-25% +400 to +300 241 45 196
 
19% 22% +351 -4%
 
$-381 (-16%)
25-30% +300 to +233 303 75 228
 
25% 27% +265 -3%
 
$-293 (-10%)
30-35% +233 to +186 348 110 238
 
32% 33% +207 -1%
 
$-105 (-3%)
35-40% +186 to +150 391 163 228
 
42% 37% +168 4%
 
$455 (12%)
40-45% +150 to +122 472 220 252
 
47% 42% +138 5%
 
$510 (11%)
45-50% +122 to +100 339 177 162
 
52% 47% +112 5%
 
$362 (11%)
50-55% +100 to -122 411 210 201
 
51% 52% -110 -1%
 
$-97 (-2%)
55-60% -122 to -150 440 223 217
 
51% 58% -137 -7%
 
$-547 (-12%)
60-65% -150 to -186 418 229 189
 
55% 62% -167 -8%
 
$-515 (-12%)
65-70% -186 to -233 363 251 112
 
69% 68% -209 2%
 
$84 (2%)
70-75% -233 to -300 262 197 65
 
75% 72% -263 3%
 
$99 (4%)
75-80% -300 to -400 236 190 46
 
81% 77% -335 4%
 
$108 (5%)
80-85% -400 to -567 198 163 35
 
82% 82% -460 0%
 
$5 (0%)
85-90% -567 to -900 73 66 7
 
90% 87% -676 3%
 
$28 (4%)
90% + -900 31 29 2
 
94% 91% -1,071 2%
 
$7 (2%)
      2379 2378              

You can see there's a dead zone in terms of slight to fairly significant favorites under performing compared to their suggested win percentage. I would suggest this is market forces, whereby bettors are putting money on slight favorites and pushing out their odds beyond what should really be a pickem fight. As a result, betting on slight to fairly signifincant underdogs is massively more productive and successful. As it stands now, you could blindly bet on all dogs in this range and make money, so with that a base to your logic, if you are handicapping fights, this is a great place to start!

Massive favorites are currently slightly outperforming their odds but with such fine margins, it's super important to get the best odds possible. Casually betting on big favorites with one bookmaker and not shopping around, would likely end up losing you money.

Winner Odds By Card Position
Draws and NCs have been excluded.

Position Fights Fav Wins   % Dog Wins   % Avg Odds (Winner) Fav | Dog $10 on all Favs $10 on all Dogs
Main Event 276 193 70% 83 30% -108
 
$-324 (ROI: -12%) $-304 (ROI: -11%)
Co Main 262 166 63% 96 37% -102
 
$-682 (ROI: -26%) $156 (ROI: 6%)
3 249 166 67% 83 33% -101
 
$-460 (ROI: -18%) $-130 (ROI: -5%)
4 251 174 69% 77 31% +102
 
$-392 (ROI: -16%) $-224 (ROI: -9%)
5 249 173 69% 76 31% +103
 
$-498 (ROI: -20%) $-303 (ROI: -12%)
6 228 169 74% 59 26% -108
 
$-214 (ROI: -9%) $-627 (ROI: -27%)
7 209 150 72% 59 28% -101
 
$-275 (ROI: -13%) $-440 (ROI: -21%)
8 233 162 70% 71 30% +109
 
$-326 (ROI: -14%) $-259 (ROI: -11%)
9 202 142 70% 60 30% +102
 
$-270 (ROI: -13%) $-466 (ROI: -23%)
10 201 145 72% 56 28% +108
 
$-220 (ROI: -11%) $-464 (ROI: -23%)
11 183 126 69% 57 31% +109
 
$-294 (ROI: -16%) $-189 (ROI: -10%)
12 133 94 71% 39 29% -110
 
$-87 (ROI: -7%) $-326 (ROI: -25%)
13 59 43 73% 16 27% -104
 
$-27 (ROI: -5%) $-165 (ROI: -28%)

MMA Handicapper Directory Performance
Tracking all handicappers in our MMA Handicapper directory, here is their performance on underdogs vs favorites. Big favorite constitutes a higher than 65% chance of winning, according to the bookmaker odds. Big underdog is less than 35%.

  Picks Correct % Correct Units Bet Units Profit Profit per Pick ROI
Big Favorites 18538 (22%) 13945 75% 81,789.08 3,471.14 0.19 4%
Slight Favorites 28212 (34%) 15087 53% 96,461.76 -7,797.60 -0.28 -8%
Slight Underdogs 26019 (31%) 12424 48% 71,084.07 8,928.87 0.34 13%
Big Underdogs 10683 (13%) 3125 29% 22,267.35 1,341.73 0.13 6%

Conclusion
So which is better? Well the UFC Fight Night - Mir vs. Bigfoot event was the biggest upset event in MMA history. Of 11 fights, 10 underdogs won, taking the bookmakers to the cleaners! In general, our period of events so far has been much more favorable to underdogs than normal. In general, according to MMA Junkie, 31.5% of underdogs won in 2014 (UFC fights only). Whereas under our system so far, that stands at 35%. Of the fights we picked, that's even higher, at 0%.

This page will continue to update automatically, so check back at any time for the latest statistic of which is better to pick in UFC / MMA fights: underdogs or favorites.

Notes & Donations

Althought the stats pages are programmed to update automatically, the base information is all added manually. If you noticed I've missed off a debut, or incorrectly marked a fighter as a debut, please let me know on twitter or facebook.

If these stats have helped you, or if you just appreciate the effort, you're more than welcome to donate. Any small amount is greatly appreciated! :)


 
 
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