MMA Betting - Favorites vs Underdogs, which is better?!?!
When betting on MMA should you bet on the favorites or the underdogs? This page continually updates with all major MMA / UFC fights. We'll have a look at simply betting on all favorites or underdogs, we'll break things down by the position on the fight card and we'll look at all levels of underdog / favorite to see what sort of odds over / under-perform their predicted win percentage.
Note, these results use best available odds at either the time the lines closed, just before the fight, or around 7 hours before the first fight of the night, where possible (events after 7th Nov 2014). Of course, if you bet several days / weeks before the fight, you'll get different odds.
MMA / UFC Betting - Favorite vs Underdog Returns over Time
The following MMA stats are based on a $10 bet on the favourite / underdog for every fight on the card.
% Win Chance: A conversion of the bookmaker's odds into their % probability of a win for fighters in this odds range. % Won: The percentage of fighters that actually won in that odds range. Avg % Win Chance: The average bookmaker odds for the fighters in this odds range. = Odds of: Avg % Win Chance converted into odds format. Over / Under Perform: Here we compare the Avg % Win Chance (i.e. what percentage of the fights the bookmaker says these fighters should win), with how many actually won. Over performing means more fighters are winning in this odds bracket than should and under performing (negative number) means this odds range under performs and would not be good to bet on.
% Win Chance
=Odds
Fights
Won
Lost
% Won
% Won
Avg % Win Chance
= Odds
Over / Under Perform
Bet $10 on
all fights (ROI)
<10%
+900
22
3
19
14%
8%
+1,136
6%
$151 (69%)
10-15%
+900 to +567
107
9
98
8%
13%
+680
-4%
$-368 (-34%)
15-20%
+567 to +400
213
33
180
15%
18%
+469
-2%
$-252 (-12%)
20-25%
+400 to +300
369
67
302
18%
22%
+350
-4%
$-672 (-18%)
25-30%
+300 to +233
488
130
358
27%
27%
+265
-1%
$-140 (-3%)
30-35%
+233 to +186
539
176
363
33%
33%
+207
0%
$6 (0%)
35-40%
+186 to +150
595
231
364
39%
37%
+168
1%
$233 (4%)
40-45%
+150 to +122
754
334
420
44%
42%
+137
2%
$392 (5%)
45-50%
+122 to +100
537
266
271
50%
47%
+112
2%
$258 (5%)
50-55%
+100 to -122
683
349
334
51%
52%
-110
-1%
$-161 (-2%)
55-60%
-122 to -150
680
368
312
54%
58%
-137
-4%
$-434 (-6%)
60-65%
-150 to -186
658
387
271
59%
62%
-166
-4%
$-380 (-6%)
65-70%
-186 to -233
549
379
170
69%
68%
-209
1%
$113 (2%)
70-75%
-233 to -300
411
298
113
73%
72%
-263
0%
$3 (0%)
75-80%
-300 to -400
382
302
80
79%
77%
-334
2%
$104 (3%)
80-85%
-400 to -567
289
244
45
84%
82%
-459
2%
$81 (3%)
85-90%
-567 to -900
118
103
15
87%
87%
-671
0%
$4 (0%)
90% +
-900
45
42
3
93%
92%
-1,107
2%
$8 (2%)
3721
3718
You can see there's a dead zone in terms of slight to fairly significant favorites under performing compared to their suggested win percentage. I would suggest this is market forces, whereby bettors are putting money on slight favorites and pushing out their odds beyond what should really be a pickem fight. As a result, betting on slight to fairly signifincant underdogs is massively more productive and successful. As it stands now, you could blindly bet on all dogs in this range and make money, so with that a base to your logic, if you are handicapping fights, this is a great place to start!
Massive favorites are currently slightly outperforming their odds but with such fine margins, it's super important to get the best odds possible. Casually betting on big favorites with one bookmaker and not shopping around, would likely end up losing you money.
Winner Odds By Card Position
Draws and NCs have been excluded.
Position
Fights
Fav Wins
%
Dog Wins
%
Avg Odds (Winner)
Fav | Dog
$10 on all Favs
$10 on all Dogs
Main Event
424
300
71%
124
29%
-111
$inf (ROI: inf%)
$-569 (ROI: -13%)
Co Main
403
256
64%
147
36%
-102
$inf (ROI: inf%)
$177 (ROI: 4%)
3
391
265
68%
126
32%
-109
$inf (ROI: inf%)
$-291 (ROI: -7%)
4
395
276
70%
119
30%
-106
$inf (ROI: inf%)
$-430 (ROI: -11%)
5
378
264
70%
114
30%
-106
$inf (ROI: inf%)
$-506 (ROI: -13%)
6
347
242
70%
105
30%
-107
$inf (ROI: inf%)
$-421 (ROI: -12%)
7
318
229
72%
89
28%
-109
$inf (ROI: inf%)
$-674 (ROI: -21%)
8
348
244
70%
104
30%
-103
$inf (ROI: inf%)
$-513 (ROI: -15%)
9
304
206
68%
98
32%
-107
$inf (ROI: inf%)
$-428 (ROI: -14%)
10
297
213
72%
84
28%
+101
$inf (ROI: inf%)
$-665 (ROI: -22%)
11
264
178
67%
86
33%
+104
$inf (ROI: inf%)
$-167 (ROI: -6%)
12
188
132
70%
56
30%
-116
$inf (ROI: inf%)
$-415 (ROI: -22%)
13
84
60
71%
24
29%
-114
$inf (ROI: inf%)
$-201 (ROI: -24%)
MMA Handicapper Directory Performance
Tracking all handicappers in our MMA Handicapper directory, here is their performance on underdogs vs favorites. Big favorite constitutes a higher than 65% chance of winning, according to the bookmaker odds. Big underdog is less than 35%.
Picks
Correct
% Correct
Units Bet
Units Profit
Profit per Pick
ROI
Big Favorites
52858 (19%)
39364
74%
213,418.65
7,300.01
0.14
3%
Slight Favorites
97679 (35%)
54233
56%
293,356.81
-12,579.55
-0.13
-4%
Slight Underdogs
89962 (33%)
40893
45%
215,800.85
12,607.61
0.14
6%
Big Underdogs
34707 (13%)
9874
28%
67,101.21
-600.87
-0.02
-1%
Conclusion
So which is better? Well the UFC Fight Night - Mir vs. Bigfoot event was the biggest upset event in MMA history. Of 11 fights, 10 underdogs won, taking the bookmakers to the cleaners! In general, our period of events so far has been much more favorable to underdogs than normal. In general, according to MMA Junkie, 31.5% of underdogs won in 2014 (UFC fights only). Whereas under our system so far, that stands at
34%. Of the fights we picked, that's even higher, at nan%.
This page will continue to update automatically, so check back at any time for the latest statistic of which is better to pick in UFC / MMA fights: underdogs or favorites.
Notes & Donations
Althought the stats pages are programmed to update automatically, the base information is all added manually. If you noticed I've missed off a debut, or incorrectly marked a fighter as a debut, please let me know on twitter or facebook.
If these stats have helped you, or if you just appreciate the effort, you're more than welcome to donate. Any small amount is greatly appreciated! :)