BetMMA.tips: UFC Betting - Favorites vs Underdogs, which is better?

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MMA Betting - Favorites vs Underdogs, which is better?!?!

When betting on MMA should you bet on the favorites or the underdogs? This page continually updates with all major MMA / UFC fights. We'll have a look at simply betting on all favorites or underdogs, we'll break things down by the position on the fight card and we'll look at all levels of underdog / favorite to see what sort of odds over / under-perform their predicted win percentage.

Note, these results use best available odds at either the time the lines closed, just before the fight, or around 7 hours before the first fight of the night, where possible (events after 7th Nov 2014). Of course, if you bet several days / weeks before the fight, you'll get different odds. It is very important with MMA betting to try and have a few different accounts, if you want to maximise profits. Very slightly better odds will have a significant cumulative effect on your winnings over time.

MMA / UFC Betting - Favorite vs Underdog Returns over Time

The following MMA stats are based on a $10 bet on the favourite / underdog for every fight on the card.

Show stats for

Date	Event	Favourite Wins	Underdog Wins	Avg Winner Odds	Favourites (ROI)	Underdogs (ROI)
27th Apr 13	UFC 159 - Jones vs. Sonnen	8	3	+-100	$8.50 (8%)	$-25.20 (-23%)
18th May 13	UFC on FX 8 - Belfort vs. Rockhold	12	1	+-100	$48.50 (37%)	$-109.00 (-84%)
25th May 13	UFC 160 - Velasquez vs. Bigfoot 2	8	4	+-100	$-8.60 (-7%)	$-4.40 (-4%)
27th Jul 13	UFC on Fox 8 - Johnson vs. Moraga	11	1	+-100	$43.00 (36%)	$-87.00 (-73%)
3rd Aug 13	UFC 163 - Aldo vs. Korean Zombie	10	2	+-100	$18.80 (16%)	$-42.50 (-35%)
17th Aug 13	UFC Fight Night 26 - Shogun vs. Sonnen	7	6	+-100	$-23.00 (-18%)	$67.00 (52%)
16th Nov 13	UFC 167 - St. Pierre vs. Hendricks	10	2	+-100	$30.90 (26%)	$-48.50 (-40%)
30th Nov 13	UFC - The Ultimate Fighter 18 Finale	7	3	+-100	$3.20 (3%)	$-30.90 (-31%)
7th Dec 13	UFC Fight Night 33 - Hunt vs. Bigfoot	4	6	+-100	$-50.00 (-45%)	$59.00 (54%)
28th Dec 13	UFC 168 - Weidman vs. Silva 2	7	4	+-100	$-10.60 (-10%)	$-12.50 (-11%)
4th Jan 14	UFC Fight Night 34 - Saffiedine vs. Lim	7	3	+-100	$4.90 (5%)	$-26.50 (-27%)
25th Jan 14	UFC on Fox 10 - Henderson vs. Thomson	8	3	+-100	$7.50 (7%)	$0.00 (0%)
1st Feb 14	UFC 169 - Barao vs. Faber 2	8	4	+-100	$-0.40 (-0%)	$-22.50 (-19%)
15th Feb 14	UFC Fight Night 36 - Machida vs. Mousasi	9	3	+-100	$14.50 (12%)	$-40.90 (-34%)
23rd Mar 14	UFC Fight Night 38 - Shogun vs. Henderson 2	1	9	+-100	$-84.40 (-77%)	$235.70 (214%)
16th Apr 14	UFC - The Ultimate Fighter Nations Finale	9	4	+-100	$-7.00 (-5%)	$-28.10 (-22%)
19th Apr 14	UFC on Fox 11 - Werdum vs. Browne	9	4	+-100	$-1.20 (-1%)	$-25.70 (-20%)
26th Apr 14	UFC 172 - Jones vs. Teixeira	7	3	+-100	$1.40 (1%)	$-23.00 (-23%)
10th May 14	UFC Fight Night 40 - Brown vs. Silva	6	7	+-100	$-48.20 (-37%)	$166.10 (128%)
7th Jun 14	UFC Fight Night 42 - Henderson vs. Khabilov	8	3	+-100	$2.80 (3%)	$-44.50 (-40%)
14th Jun 14	UFC 174 - Johnson vs. Bagautinov	5	6	+-100	$-29.50 (-27%)	$65.00 (59%)
28th Jun 14	UFC Fight Night 44 - Swanson vs. Stephens	8	3	+-100	$6.90 (6%)	$-28.30 (-26%)
19th Jul 14	UFC Fight Night 46 - McGregor vs. Brandao	8	2	+-100	$19.30 (19%)	$-43.00 (-43%)
26th Jul 14	UFC on Fox 12 - Lawler vs. Brown	10	2	+-100	$26.70 (22%)	$-44.80 (-37%)
23rd Aug 14	UFC Fight Night 48 - Bisping vs. Le	7	3	+-100	$5.40 (5%)	$-16.90 (-17%)
30th Aug 14	UFC 177 - Dillashaw vs. Soto	8	0	+-100	$45.00 (56%)	$-80.00 (-100%)
13th Sep 14	UFC Fight Night 51 - Bigfoot vs. Arlovski 2	8	3	+-100	$19.30 (18%)	$-16.00 (-15%)
20th Sep 14	UFC Fight Night 52 - Hunt vs. Nelson	9	3	+-100	$15.10 (13%)	$-36.00 (-30%)
27th Sep 14	UFC 178 - Johnson vs. Cariaso	8	3	+-100	$0.10 (0%)	$-30.20 (-27%)
7th Nov 14	UFC Fight Night - Rockhold vs. Bisping	4	5	-130	$-35.80 (-36%)	$47.00 (47%)
8th Nov 14	UFC Fight Night - Shogun vs. St. Preux	7	3	-153	$2.30 (2%)	$-22.90 (-23%)
15th Nov 14	UFC 180 - Werdum vs. Hunt	6	4	-123	$-11.70 (-12%)	$18.40 (18%)
15th Nov 14	Belator 131 - Tito vs Bonnar	3	2	-154	$-9.16 (-18%)	$5.07 (10%)
22nd Nov 14	UFC Fight Night - Edgar vs. Swanson	8	4	-123	$2.10 (2%)	$4.10 (3%)
6th Dec 14	UFC 181 - Hendricks vs. Lawler 2	7	4	-163	$-16.30 (-15%)	$-6.95 (-6%)
12th Dec 14	UFC - The Ultimate Fighter 20 Finale	6	4	-159	$-17.80 (-18%)	$-4.10 (-4%)
13th Dec 14	WSOF 16 - Palhares vs. Fitch	2	0	-136	$14.79 (74%)	$-20.00 (-100%)
13th Dec 14	UFC on Fox 13 - Dos Santos vs. Miocic	8	4	-131	$-4.70 (-4%)	$17.40 (15%)
20th Dec 14	UFC Fight Night - Machida vs. Dollaway	9	3	-166	$8.83 (7%)	$-23.95 (-20%)
3rd Jan 15	UFC 182 - Jones vs. Cormier	7	4	-152	$-11.81 (-11%)	$-4.31 (-4%)
18th Jan 15	UFC Fight Night - McGregor vs. Siver	9	2	-149	$22.00 (18%)	$-64.00 (-53%)
24th Jan 15	UFC on Fox 14 - Gustafsson vs. Johnson	5	7	-106	$-49.60 (-41%)	$90.10 (75%)
31st Jan 15	UFC 183 - Silva vs. Diaz	7	4	-146	$-9.10 (-8%)	$-5.70 (-5%)
14th Feb 15	UFC Fight Night - Henderson vs Thatch	7	3	-166	$1.80 (2%)	$-28.60 (-29%)
22nd Feb 15	UFC Fight Night - Mir vs. Bigfoot	1	10	+221	$-95.50 (-87%)	$293.00 (266%)
28th Feb 15	UFC 184 - Rousey vs. Zingano	8	2	-186	$12.00 (12%)	$-39.20 (-39%)
14th Mar 15	UFC 185 - Pettis vs. Dos Anjos	7	5	-139	$-27.70 (-23%)	$55.00 (46%)
21st Mar 15	UFC Fight Night - Maia vs. LaFlare	8	4	-154	$-5.38 (-4%)	$-14.76 (-12%)
4th Apr 15	UFC Fight Night - Mendes vs. Lamas	7	3	-146	$6.50 (7%)	$-23.30 (-23%)
10th Apr 15	Bellator 136 - Brooks vs. Jansen	1	1	+-100	$-8.30 (-42%)	$4.30 (22%)
11th Apr 15	UFC Fight Night - Gonzaga vs. Cro Cop 2	7	5	-103	$-6.00 (-5%)	$54.00 (45%)
18th Apr 15	UFC on Fox 15 - Rockhold vs. Machida	7	4	-122	$-2.60 (-2%)	$27.60 (25%)
25th Apr 15	UFC 186 - Johnson vs. Horiguchi	11	1	-213	$37.30 (31%)	$-91.40 (-76%)
9th May 15	UFC Fight Night - Hunt vs. Miocic	4	8	+107	$-57.99 (-48%)	$89.11 (74%)
16th May 15	UFC Fight Night - Edgar vs. Faber	8	4	-128	$7.30 (6%)	$-11.70 (-10%)
23rd May 15	UFC 187 - Cormier vs. Johnson	8	2	-198	$1.13 (1%)	$-8.90 (-8%)
30th May 15	UFC Fight Night - Condit vs. Alves	9	3	-148	$15.70 (13%)	$-36.90 (-31%)
6th Jun 15	UFC Fight Night - Boetsch vs. Henderson	6	6	+107	$-17.67 (-15%)	$40.82 (34%)
13th Jun 15	UFC 188 - Velasquez vs. Werdum	4	7	-109	$-61.00 (-55%)	$103.50 (94%)
20th Jun 15	UFC Fight Night - Jedrzejczyk vs. Penne	7	4	-123	$-3.07 (-3%)	$8.69 (8%)
27th Jun 15	UFC Fight Night - Machida vs. Romero	6	3	-147	$0.20 (0%)	$-21.50 (-24%)
11th Jul 15	UFC 189 - McGregor vs. Mendes	6	5	-135	$-24.98 (-23%)	$20.66 (19%)
12th Jul 15	UFC - The Ultimate Fighter 21 Finale	6	5	-128	$-18.62 (-17%)	$17.96 (16%)
15th Jul 15	UFC Fight Night - Mir vs. Duffee	9	2	-179	$19.20 (16%)	$-62.00 (-52%)
17th Jul 15	Bellator 140 - Lima vs. Koreshkov	1	1	-188	$-9.09 (-45%)	$5.77 (29%)
18th Jul 15	UFC Fight Night - Bisping vs. Leites	10	2	-161	$35.10 (29%)	$-67.82 (-57%)
25th Jul 15	UFC on Fox 16 - Dillashaw vs. Barao 2	7	5	-121	$-9.91 (-8%)	$3.52 (3%)
1st Aug 15	UFC 190 - Rousey vs. Correia	9	4	-138	$2.32 (2%)	$-1.76 (-1%)
1st Aug 15	WSOF 22 - Palhares vs. Shields	3	0	-186	$17.02 (57%)	$-30.00 (-100%)
8th Aug 15	UFC Fight Night - St. Preux vs. Teixeira	9	3	-172	$7.90 (6%)	$-42.10 (-32%)
23rd Aug 15	UFC Fight Night 74 - Holloway vs. Oliveira	5	7	+104	$-45.40 (-38%)	$85.20 (71%)
28th Aug 15	Bellator 141 - Guillard vs. Girtz	3	2	-135	$-7.10 (-14%)	$14.70 (29%)
5th Sep 15	UFC 191 - Johnson vs. Dodson 2	5	6	-120	$-40.80 (-37%)	$62.50 (57%)
19th Sep 15	Bellator 142 - Dynamite	4	0	-455	$9.10 (23%)	$-40.00 (-100%)
25th Sep 15	Bellator 143: Davis vs. Warren	2	0	-252	$8.70 (44%)	$-20.00 (-100%)
26th Sep 15	UFC Fight Night - Barnett vs. Nelson	7	2	-150	$10.80 (11%)	$0.70 (1%)
3rd Oct 15	UFC 192 - Cormier vs. Gustafsson	9	3	-175	$7.61 (6%)	$-48.67 (-41%)
17th Oct 15	WSOF 24: Fitch vs. Okami	5	2	-260	$-5.40 (-6%)	$-26.60 (-30%)
23rd Oct 15	Bellator 144: Halsey vs. Carvalho	1	1	+167	$-4.30 (-22%)	$70.00 (350%)
24th Oct 15	UFC Fight Night 76 - Holohan vs. Smolka	6	2	-130	$14.96 (15%)	$-18.41 (-18%)
31st Oct 15	KSW 32 - Road to Wembley	3	1	-121	$7.10 (18%)	$-3.50 (-9%)
6th Nov 15	Bellator 145 - Vengeance	1	1	+111	$-7.30 (-24%)	$11.00 (37%)
7th Nov 15	UFC Fight Night 77: Belfort vs. Henderson 3	10	3	-178	$14.10 (11%)	$-59.00 (-45%)
14th Nov 15	UFC 193 - Rousey vs. Holm	8	5	-141	$-18.30 (-14%)	$104.50 (80%)
20th Nov 15	Bellator 146: Kato vs. Manhoef	3	1	+535	$7.20 (14%)	$-18.00 (-36%)
20th Nov 15	WSOF 25 - 8-Man Lightweight Tournament	3	1	-206	$-2.30 (-6%)	$-7.00 (-18%)
21st Nov 15	UFC Fight Night 78 - Magny vs. Gastelum	7	6	-112	$-21.40 (-16%)	$35.40 (27%)
28th Nov 15	UFC Fight Night 79 - Henderson vs. Masvidal	5	6	-121	$-35.20 (-32%)	$29.90 (27%)
28th Nov 15	KSW 33 - Materla vs. Khalidov	1	2	-117	$-15.10 (-38%)	$27.35 (68%)
4th Dec 15	Bellator 147: Thomson vs. Villaseca	2	1	-162	$-0.90 (-2%)	$-8.40 (-21%)
10th Dec 15	UFC Fight Night - VanZant vs Namajunas	8	3	-174	$3.00 (3%)	$-32.42 (-29%)
12th Dec 15	UFC - The Ultimate Fighter 22 Finale	7	3	-133	$14.90 (15%)	$-33.80 (-34%)
12th Dec 15	UFC 194 - Aldo vs. McGregor	6	6	-128	$-34.30 (-29%)	$55.40 (46%)
19th Dec 15	UFC on Fox 17 - Dos Anjos vs. Cerrone 2	5	7	+130	$-35.30 (-29%)	$117.60 (98%)
31st Dec 15	Rizin FF - 2	1	0	-1,000	$1.00 (10%)	$-10.00 (-100%)
2nd Jan 16	UFC 195 - Lawler vs Condit	7	4	-123	$-2.70 (-2%)	$3.20 (3%)
17th Jan 16	UFC Fight Night - Dillashaw vs. Cruz	6	7	-116	$-43.20 (-33%)	$52.80 (41%)
23rd Jan 16	WSOF 27: Firmino vs. Fodor	2	0	-241	$8.30 (42%)	$-20.00 (-100%)
29th Jan 16	Bellator 148 - Daley vs. Uhrich	2	0	-303	$4.70 (16%)	$-20.00 (-67%)
30th Jan 16	UFC on Fox 18 - Johnson vs. Bader	8	4	-113	$9.70 (7%)	$0.80 (1%)
6th Feb 16	UFC Fight Night 82 - Hendricks vs. Thompson	6	6	-126	$-37.30 (-31%)	$50.80 (42%)
19th Feb 16	Bellator 149: Shamrock vs. Gracie 3	2	3	+101	$-18.10 (-36%)	$28.50 (57%)
21st Feb 16	UFC Fight Night 82 - Cerrone vs. Oliveira	9	4	-142	$6.00 (5%)	$-22.07 (-17%)
26th Feb 16	Bellator 150 - Galvao vs. Dantas 2	2	1	-173	$-2.40 (-8%)	$-6.50 (-22%)
27th Feb 16	UFC Fight Night 84 - Silva vs. Bisping	10	3	-161	$18.61 (14%)	$-48.69 (-37%)
4th Mar 16	Bellator 151 - Warren vs. Caldwell	1	3	+127	$-27.20 (-68%)	$62.20 (156%)
4th Mar 16	Titan FC 37 - Simon vs. Dos Santos	1	0	-667	$1.50 (15%)	$-10.00 (-100%)
5th Mar 16	UFC 196 - McGregor vs. Diaz	5	7	+117	$-41.90 (-35%)	$109.10 (91%)
11th Mar 16	Invicta FC 16 - Hamasaki vs. Brown	2	3	+105	$-17.80 (-36%)	$26.00 (52%)
12th Mar 16	WSOF 29 - Gaethje vs. Foster	1	1	-163	$-6.90 (-35%)	$1.00 (5%)
19th Mar 16	UFC Fight Night 84 - Hunt vs. Mir	5	7	-109	$-42.80 (-36%)	$65.50 (55%)
3rd Apr 16	WSOF 30: Branch vs. Starks	3	0	-242	$12.50 (42%)	$-30.00 (-100%)
10th Apr 16	UFC Fight Night 86 - Zagreb	9	4	-130	$17.40 (13%)	$-38.50 (-30%)
16th Apr 16	UFC on Fox 19 - Teixeira vs. Evans	8	3	-146	$13.60 (12%)	$-34.00 (-31%)
17th Apr 16	Bellator 152 - Freire vs. Souza	1	2	-134	$-18.60 (-62%)	$17.50 (58%)
23rd Apr 16	Bellator 153 - Koreshkov vs. Henderson	3	2	-129	$-10.90 (-22%)	$37.20 (74%)
23rd Apr 16	UFC 197 - Jones vs. St Preux	10	2	-184	$25.60 (21%)	$-68.00 (-57%)
7th May 16	Invicta FC 17: Evinger vs. Schneider	3	2	-142	$-6.00 (-12%)	$-3.50 (-7%)
8th May 16	UFC Fight Night - Overeem vs. Arlovski	9	4	-163	$-2.60 (-2%)	$-33.50 (-26%)
14th May 16	UFC 198 - Werdum vs. Miocic	6	5	-126	$-27.30 (-23%)	$53.50 (45%)
15th May 16	Bellator 154 - Davis vs. King Mo	2	0	-199	$10.10 (51%)	$-20.00 (-100%)
20th May 16	Bellator 155 - Carvalho vs. Manhoef	4	1	-127	$11.00 (22%)	$10.10 (20%)
29th May 16	UFC Fight Night - Almeida vs. Garbrandt	6	5	-108	$-12.60 (-11%)	$25.50 (21%)
4th Jun 16	UFC 199 - Rockhold vs Bisping 2	7	5	-102	$-6.70 (-5%)	$59.50 (46%)
10th Jun 16	Titan FC 39: Cavalcante vs. Healy	5	2	+-100	$3.50 (5%)	$-20.40 (-29%)
17th Jun 16	Bellator 156 - Galvao vs. Dantas 2	1	0	-154	$6.50 (65%)	$-10.00 (-100%)
18th Jun 16	UFC Fight Night - MacDonald vs. Thompson	10	3	-140	$31.10 (24%)	$-57.20 (-44%)
24th Jun 16	Bellator 157 - Dynamite 2	2	1	+-100	$-3.50 (-12%)	$-5.50 (-18%)
7th Jul 16	UFC Fight Night - Dos Anjos vs. Alvarez	8	4	-140	$3.30 (3%)	$-21.00 (-18%)
8th Jul 16	UFC - The Ultimate Fighter 23 Finale	9	3	-147	$21.00 (18%)	$-49.90 (-42%)
9th Jul 16	UFC 200 - Tate vs. Nunes	7	5	-146	$-19.90 (-17%)	$0.50 (0%)
13th Jul 16	UFC Fight Night 91 - McDonald vs. Lineker	4	8	-100	$-64.40 (-54%)	$90.00 (75%)
16th Jul 16	Bellator 158 - Daley vs. Lima	4	0	+-100	$12.70 (32%)	$-40.00 (-100%)
23rd Jul 16	UFC on Fox 20 - Holm vs. Shevchenko	6	5	-131	$-24.20 (-22%)	$18.50 (17%)
29th Jul 16	Invicta FC 18 - Grasso vs. Esquibel	2	0	+-100	$8.90 (45%)	$-20.00 (-100%)
30th Jul 16	UFC 201 - Lawler vs. Woodley	6	4	-118	$-3.30 (-3%)	$5.50 (5%)
6th Aug 16	UFC Fight Night 92 - Rodriguez vs. Caceres	11	1	-169	$52.90 (44%)	$-98.00 (-82%)
20th Aug 16	UFC 202 - Diaz vs. McGregor 2	9	3	-146	$20.10 (17%)	$-42.00 (-35%)
26th Aug 16	Bellator 160 Henderson vs. Pitbull	1	0	-200	$5.00 (50%)	$-10.00 (-100%)
27th Aug 16	UFC on Fox 21 - Condit vs. Maia	7	3	-150	$5.70 (6%)	$-32.00 (-32%)
3rd Sep 16	UFC Fight Night - Arlovski vs. Barnett	7	3	-169	$0.20 (0%)	$-30.70 (-28%)
10th Sep 16	UFC 203 - Miocic vs. Overeem	9	1	-164	$43.00 (43%)	$-77.00 (-77%)
17th Sep 16	UFC Fight Night 94 - Poirier vs. Johnson	7	4	-151	$-7.70 (-6%)	$-17.70 (-15%)
23rd Sep 16	Invicta FC 19 Maia vs. Modafferi	1	0	-233	$4.30 (43%)	$-10.00 (-100%)
24th Sep 16	UFC Fight Night 95 - Brasilia	8	5	-128	$-8.90 (-7%)	$33.00 (25%)
1st Oct 16	UFC Fight Night 96 - Lineker vs. Dodson	4	8	+123	$-52.70 (-44%)	$114.00 (95%)
7th Oct 16	WSOF 33 Gaethje vs. Dugulubgov	2	2	-194	$-11.10 (-28%)	$9.20 (23%)
8th Oct 16	UFC 204 - Bisping vs. Henderson 2	6	5	-128	$-23.40 (-21%)	$20.50 (19%)
21st Oct 16	Bellator 162 Shlemenko vs. Grove	5	1	-180	$13.30 (22%)	$-36.40 (-61%)
5th Nov 16	UFC Mexico City	8	5	-142	$-10.70 (-8%)	$-12.20 (-9%)
12th Nov 16	UFC 205 - New York City	5	5	-115	$-23.10 (-21%)	$24.80 (23%)
19th Nov 16	UFC Fight Night 99 - Mousasi vs. Hall	10	3	-131	$31.90 (25%)	$-42.50 (-33%)
19th Nov 16	UFC Fight Night 100 Bader vs. Nogueira 2	8	4	-159	$-5.80 (-5%)	$-25.20 (-21%)
19th Nov 16	Bellator 165 Chandler vs. Henderson	3	0	-202	$15.70 (52%)	$-30.00 (-100%)
26th Nov 16	UFC Fight Night 101	5	8	+116	$-38.80 (-30%)	$82.50 (63%)
2nd Dec 16	Bellator 166 Dantas vs. Warren 2	1	0	+-100	$4.90 (49%)	$-10.00 (-100%)
3rd Dec 16	UFC - The Ultimate Fighter 24 Finale	8	4	-136	$7.40 (6%)	$-26.20 (-22%)
9th Dec 16	UFC Fight Night 102 Albany	12	0	-219	$56.30 (47%)	$-120.00 (-100%)
10th Dec 16	UFC 206	6	5	-113	$-14.30 (-12%)	$15.00 (13%)
17th Dec 16	UFC on Fox 22	9	4	-114	$22.20 (17%)	$-17.80 (-14%)
31st Dec 16	UFC 207	6	3	-112	$10.30 (11%)	$-11.50 (-13%)
14th Jan 17	Invicta FC 21 Anderson vs. Tweet	2	2	+-100	$-12.50 (-31%)	$17.40 (44%)
15th Jan 17	UFC Fight Night 103 Rodriguez vs. Penn	10	2	-142	$44.90 (37%)	$-74.00 (-62%)
28th Jan 17	UFC on FOX 23 Shevchenko vs. Pena	9	3	-145	$25.00 (21%)	$-58.60 (-49%)
4th Feb 17	UFC FN 104 K. Zombie vs. Bermudez	7	5	-116	$-13.00 (-11%)	$33.40 (28%)
11th Feb 17	UFC 208	8	2	-202	$12.40 (12%)	$-54.20 (-54%)
18th Feb 17	Bellator 172	1	2	+123	$-16.40 (-55%)	$36.50 (122%)
19th Feb 17	UFC Fight Night 105 Lewis vs. Browne	8	3	-163	$7.20 (7%)	$-33.00 (-30%)
4th Mar 17	UFC 209	6	5	+124	$-4.30 (-4%)	$87.60 (80%)
11th Mar 17	UFC Fight Night 106 Belfort vs. Gastelum	9	2	-141	$33.90 (28%)	$-53.50 (-45%)
18th Mar 17	UFC Fight Night 107 Manuwa vs. Anderson	6	5	-137	$-22.80 (-21%)	$5.80 (5%)
18th Mar 17	WSOF 35 Ivanov vs. Jordan	4	0	-186	$22.70 (57%)	$-40.00 (-100%)
25th Mar 17	Invicta FC 22	2	2	-103	$-8.60 (-22%)	$15.70 (39%)
8th Apr 17	UFC 210 - Cormier vs. Johnson 2	8	5	-144	$-12.80 (-10%)	$-6.90 (-5%)
15th Apr 17	UFC on Fox 24 - Johnson vs Reis	9	4	-147	$0.40 (0%)	$-8.50 (-7%)
16th Apr 17	Rizin FF 5: Sakura	2	0	+-100	$6.70 (34%)	$-20.00 (-100%)
22nd Apr 17	UFC Fight Night 108 Swanson vs. Lobov	11	2	-181	$35.70 (27%)	$-84.50 (-65%)
13th May 17	UFC 211 - Miocic vs. Dos Santos	7	4	-131	$3.90 (4%)	$-21.50 (-20%)
19th May 17	Bellator 179 Daley vs. MacDonald	2	1	-171	$-3.47 (-12%)	$-4.00 (-13%)
28th May 17	UFC Fight Night 109 Gustafsson Vs Teixeira	7	5	-117	$-15.80 (-13%)	$48.00 (40%)
3rd Jun 17	UFC 212 Aldo vs Holloway	9	3	-131	$22.00 (18%)	$-29.00 (-24%)
10th Jun 17	UFC Fight Night 110 Hunt vs. Lewis	7	4	-146	$-7.30 (-7%)	$-13.50 (-12%)
17th Jun 17	UFC Fight Night 111	10	2	-197	$18.80 (16%)	$-45.90 (-38%)
24th Jun 17	Bellator 180 Sonnen vs. Silva	3	3	+115	$-10.51 (-13%)	$58.00 (73%)
25th Jun 17	UFC Fight Night 112	9	4	-134	$8.70 (7%)	$-15.80 (-12%)
7th Jul 17	TUF Season 25 Finale	7	4	-142	$-10.20 (-9%)	$6.00 (5%)
8th Jul 17	UFC 213	10	0	-162	$51.00 (46%)	$-100.00 (-91%)
11th Jul 17	Dana White's TNCS 1	4	1	-126	$18.30 (37%)	$-22.60 (-45%)
16th Jul 17	UFC Fight Night 113	9	2	-137	$22.70 (19%)	$-58.00 (-48%)
18th Jul 17	Dana White's TNCS 2	2	0	+320	$13.78 (28%)	$-20.00 (-40%)
22nd Jul 17	UFC on Fox 25	6	7	-105	$-40.90 (-31%)	$61.60 (47%)
25th Jul 17	DWTNF 3	1	4	+-100	$-35.48 (-71%)	$36.40 (73%)
4th Aug 17	LFA 18: Aguilar VS. Rader	1	1	+-100	$-3.29 (-16%)	$1.10 (6%)
8th Aug 17	DWTNCS 5	4	1	-175	$10.13 (20%)	$-30.00 (-60%)
15th Aug 17	DWTNCS 6	3	2	+-100	$-1.80 (-4%)	$7.00 (14%)
2nd Sep 17	UFC Fight Night Struve vs. Volkov	11	1	-200	$42.00 (35%)	$-93.50 (-78%)
9th Sep 17	UFC 215	4	7	+111	$-50.90 (-46%)	$109.00 (99%)
16th Sep 17	UFC Fight Night 116 Rockhold vs. Branch	8	2	-181	$15.80 (16%)	$-42.50 (-43%)
22nd Sep 17	UFC Fight Night 117 St. Preux vs. Shogun 2	5	4	+102	$-14.50 (-15%)	$18.80 (19%)
7th Oct 17	UFC 216	6	3	-124	$1.25 (1%)	$22.00 (20%)
21st Oct 17	UFC Fight Night 118 Gdansk	9	2	-175	$24.40 (22%)	$-63.00 (-57%)
4th Nov 17	UFC 217	4	5	+176	$-21.70 (-20%)	$94.50 (86%)
11th Nov 17	UFC Fight Night 120 Virginia	8	5	-133	$-12.17 (-9%)	$11.80 (9%)
18th Nov 17	UFC Fight Night 121 Sydney	10	3	-148	$20.20 (16%)	$-28.00 (-22%)
25th Nov 17	UFC Fight Night 122 Bisping vs. Gastellum	8	3	-125	$15.13 (13%)	$-19.50 (-16%)
1st Dec 17	Bellator 189	2	2	+-100	$-11.40 (-29%)	$9.90 (25%)
2nd Dec 17	TUF 26 Finale	7	3	+-100	$1.99 (2%)	$11.50 (10%)
9th Dec 17	UFC Fight Night 123	8	5	-111	$-3.00 (-2%)	$26.00 (20%)
16th Dec 17	UFC on Fox 26 Lawler vs. dos Anjos	7	4	-101	$10.98 (10%)	$3.90 (4%)
31st Dec 17	UFC 219	5	4	-110	$-16.94 (-17%)	$38.90 (39%)
14th Jan 18	UFC Fight Night 124	6	5	-112	$-13.40 (-12%)	$19.30 (18%)
20th Jan 18	UFC 220	6	5	-124	$-18.56 (-17%)	$8.90 (8%)
20th Jan 18	Bellator 192	2	1	+-100	$-1.80 (-4%)	$-4.50 (-9%)
27th Jan 18	UFC on Fox 27	9	3	+-100	$29.82 (25%)	$-38.70 (-32%)
4th Feb 18	UFC Fight Night 125	5	4	-118	$-18.60 (-17%)	$25.00 (23%)
10th Feb 18	UFC 221	9	3	+-100	$25.73 (21%)	$-43.30 (-36%)
17th Feb 18	Bellator 194	3	1	+-100	$5.97 (15%)	$-18.50 (-46%)
18th Feb 18	UFC Fight Night 126	7	4	+-100	$0.80 (1%)	$-8.00 (-7%)
24th Feb 18	UFC on Fox 28	6	6	+-100	$-23.97 (-20%)	$61.00 (51%)
3rd Mar 18	UFC 222	8	4	-125	$8.54 (7%)	$1.70 (1%)
17th Mar 18	UFC Fight Night 127	4	6	+116	$-40.97 (-41%)	$113.90 (114%)
7th Apr 18	UFC 223	4	5	-146	$-36.12 (-40%)	$18.30 (20%)
14th Apr 18	UFC on Fox 29	9	5	-134	$-0.15 (-0%)	$-10.90 (-8%)
20th Apr 18	LFA 37	1	0	+-100	$1.67 (17%)	$-10.00 (-100%)
21st Apr 18	UFC Fight Night 128	9	2	-142	$35.16 (32%)	$-59.00 (-54%)
12th May 18	UFC 224	9	3	-164	$13.31 (10%)	$-55.00 (-42%)
25th May 18	Bellator 200	4	1	+-100	$-0.70 (-1%)	$-29.00 (-58%)
27th May 18	UFC Fight Night 130	5	6	-117	$-40.99 (-37%)	$61.00 (55%)
1st Jun 18	UFC Fight Night 131	10	2	-183	$27.08 (23%)	$-74.20 (-62%)
9th Jun 18	UFC 225	11	2	-149	$45.63 (35%)	$-79.00 (-61%)
21st Jun 18	PFL 2	4	3	+-100	$-16.04 (-18%)	$84.50 (94%)
23rd Jun 18	UFC Fight Night 132	9	4	-153	$2.22 (2%)	$-30.50 (-23%)
7th Jul 18	TUF 27 Finale	6	6	-105	$-22.10 (-18%)	$30.50 (25%)
7th Jul 18	UFC 226	3	7	+157	$-47.26 (-43%)	$94.60 (86%)
14th Jul 18	UFC Fight Night 133	7	6	-106	$-8.82 (-7%)	$10.30 (8%)
19th Jul 18	PFL 4	3	4	+-100	$-35.84 (-45%)	$57.90 (72%)
22nd Jul 18	UFC Fight Night 134	7	6	-129	$-25.60 (-20%)	$8.40 (6%)
24th Jul 18	DWTNCS 14	4	1	+-100	$13.78 (28%)	$-17.00 (-34%)
28th Jul 18	UFC on Fox 30	9	3	-146	$20.23 (16%)	$-50.50 (-39%)
31st Jul 18	DWTNCS 15	4	1	+-100	$3.30 (7%)	$-11.50 (-23%)
4th Aug 18	UFC 227	8	4	-140	$-0.88 (-1%)	$-1.50 (-1%)
7th Aug 18	DWTNCS 16	3	1	+-100	$-3.74 (-7%)	$-14.50 (-29%)
25th Aug 18	UFC Fight Night 135	8	4	-146	$-2.72 (-2%)	$-15.00 (-12%)
8th Sep 18	UFC 228	9	4	-144	$8.30 (6%)	$-29.20 (-22%)
15th Sep 18	UFC FIght Night Moscow	10	2	-263	$11.38 (9%)	$-75.00 (-63%)
22nd Sep 18	UFC Fight Night Sao Paulo	9	3	-131	$11.86 (8%)	$-29.70 (-21%)
6th Oct 18	UFC 229	7	5	-134	$-19.01 (-16%)	$12.70 (11%)
12th Oct 18	Bellator 207	3	1	+110	$5.29 (11%)	$-5.00 (-10%)
3rd Nov 18	UFC 230	6	5	-131	$-32.72 (-27%)	$54.80 (46%)
10th Nov 18	UFC Fight Night Denver	10	2	-158	$35.82 (30%)	$-67.50 (-56%)
15th Nov 18	Bellator 209	1	2	+-100	$-17.15 (-34%)	$29.90 (60%)
		1532 (65%)	810 (35%)	+119	$-514.66 (-2%)	$-285.76 (-1%)

MMA Fighter Win % Breakdown by Odds

Key

% Win Chance: A conversion of the bookmaker's odds into their % probability of a win for fighters in this odds range.
% Won: The percentage of fighters that actually won in that odds range.
Avg % Win Chance: The average bookmaker odds for the fighters in this odds range.
= Odds of: Avg % Win Chance converted into odds format.
Over / Under Perform: Here we compare the Avg % Win Chance (i.e. what percentage of the fights the bookmaker says these fighters should win), with how many actually won. Over performing means more fighters are winning in this odds bracket than should and under performing (negative number) means this odds range under performs and would not be good to bet on.

% Win Chance

=Odds

Fights

Won

Lost

% Won

Avg % Win Chance

= Odds

Over / Under Perform

Bet $10 on
all fights (ROI)

<10%

+900

11%

+1,141

$34 (38%)

10-15%

+900 to +567

13%

+684

-5%

$-248 (-39%)

15-20%

+567 to +400

121

100

17%

18%

+467

-0%

$-19 (-2%)

20-25%

+400 to +300

203

168

17%

22%

+350

-5%

$-454 (-22%)

25-30%

+300 to +233

263

196

25%

27%

+265

-2%

$-184 (-7%)

30-35%

+233 to +186

300

207

31%

33%

+207

-2%

$-146 (-5%)

35-40%

+186 to +150

341

145

196

43%

37%

+168

$472 (14%)

40-45%

+150 to +122

390

184

206

47%

42%

+137

$469 (12%)

45-50%

+122 to +100

294

150

144

51%

47%

+112

$239 (8%)

50-55%

+100 to -122

352

182

170

52%

-110

-1%

$-41 (-1%)

55-60%

-122 to -150

373

190

183

51%

58%

-137

-7%

$-447 (-12%)

60-65%

-150 to -186

361

194

167

54%

63%

-167

-9%

$-508 (-14%)

65-70%

-186 to -233

310

213

69%

68%

-209

$50 (2%)

70-75%

-233 to -300

230

173

75%

72%

-263

$88 (4%)

75-80%

-300 to -400

205

165

80%

77%

-336

$91 (4%)

80-85%

-400 to -567

164

136

83%

82%

-460

$16 (1%)

85-90%

-567 to -900

91%

87%

-680

$27 (4%)

90% +

-900

92%

91%

-1,072

$1 (0%)

2035

2034

Analysis as of 1st July 2015 (by Mike). You can see there's a real dead zone in terms of slight to fairly significant favorites massively under performing compared to their suggested win percentage. I would suggest this is market forces, whereby bettors are putting money on slight favorites and pushing out their odds beyond what should really be a pickem fight. As a result, betting on slight to fairly signifincant underdogs is massively more productive and successful. As it stands now, you could blindly bet on all dogs in this range and make money, so with that a base to your logic, if you are handicapping fights, this is a great place to start!

Massive favorites are currently slightly outperforming their odds but with such fine margins, it's super important to get the best odds possible. Casually betting on big favorites with one bookmaker and not shopping around, would likely end up losing you money.

Winner Odds By Card Position

Draws and NCs have been excluded.

Position

Fights

Fav Wins

Dog Wins

Avg Odds (Winner)

Fav | Dog

$10 on all Favs

$10 on all Dogs

Main Event

243

176

72%

28%

-107

$-244 (ROI: -10%)

$-451 (ROI: -19%)

Co Main

231

148

64%

36%

-100

$-623 (ROI: -27%)

$52 (ROI: 2%)

215

141

66%

34%

+103

$-529 (ROI: -25%)

$-25 (ROI: -1%)

221

154

70%

30%

+107

$-398 (ROI: -18%)

$-228 (ROI: -10%)

219

152

69%

31%

+108

$-492 (ROI: -22%)

$-241 (ROI: -11%)

200

148

74%

26%

-103

$-221 (ROI: -11%)

$-553 (ROI: -28%)

182

135

74%

26%

+102

$-234 (ROI: -13%)

$-495 (ROI: -27%)

207

144

70%

30%

+116

$-339 (ROI: -16%)

$-204 (ROI: -10%)

175

123

70%

30%

+105

$-281 (ROI: -16%)

$-413 (ROI: -24%)

176

126

72%

28%

+113

$-255 (ROI: -15%)

$-362 (ROI: -21%)

158

112

71%

29%

+109

$-229 (ROI: -15%)

$-280 (ROI: -18%)

110

73%

27%

-105

$-66 (ROI: -6%)

$-316 (ROI: -29%)

72%

28%

+108

$-45 (ROI: -10%)

$-135 (ROI: -29%)

MMA Handicapper Directory Performance

Tracking all handicappers in our MMA Handicapper directory, here is their performance on underdogs vs favorites. Big favorite constitutes a higher than 65% chance of winning, according to the bookmaker odds. Big underdog is less than 35%.

	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Units Bet	Units Profit	Profit per Pick	ROI
Big Favorites	13716 (24%)	10442	76%	62,163.35	3,325.93	0.24	5%
Slight Favorites	18475 (33%)	10034	54%	65,628.55	-4,537.03	-0.25	-7%
Slight Underdogs	16935 (30%)	8047	48%	48,268.53	5,827.89	0.34	12%
Big Underdogs	7211 (13%)	1914	27%	15,546.76	-80.49	-0.01	-1%

Conclusion

So which is better? Well the UFC Fight Night - Mir vs. Bigfoot event was the biggest upset event in MMA history. Of 11 fights, 10 underdogs won, taking the bookmakers to the cleaners! In general, our period of events so far has been much more favorable to underdogs than normal. In general, according to MMA Junkie, 31.5% of underdogs won in 2014 (UFC fights only). Whereas under our system so far, that stands at 35%. Of the fights we picked, that's even higher, at 0%.

This page will continue to update automatically, so check back at any time for the latest statistic of which is better to pick in UFC / MMA fights: underdogs or favorites.

Notes & Donations

Althought the stats pages are programmed to update automatically, the base information is all added manually. If you noticed I've missed off a debut, or incorrectly marked a fighter as a debut, please let me know on twitter or facebook.

If these stats have helped you, or if you just appreciate the effort, you're more than welcome to donate. Any small amount is greatly appreciated! :)

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