MMA Betting - Favorites vs Underdogs, which is better?!?!
When betting on MMA should you bet on the favorites or the underdogs? This page continually updates with all major MMA / UFC fights. We'll have a look at simply betting on all favorites or underdogs, we'll break things down by the position on the fight card and we'll look at all levels of underdog / favorite to see what sort of odds over / under-perform their predicted win percentage.
Note, these results use best available odds at either the time the lines closed, just before the fight, or around 7 hours before the first fight of the night, where possible (events after 7th Nov 2014). Of course, if you bet several days / weeks before the fight, you'll get different odds.
MMA / UFC Betting - Favorite vs Underdog Returns over Time
The following MMA stats are based on a $10 bet on the favourite / underdog for every fight on the card.
% Win Chance: A conversion of the bookmaker's odds into their % probability of a win for fighters in this odds range. % Won: The percentage of fighters that actually won in that odds range. Avg % Win Chance: The average bookmaker odds for the fighters in this odds range. = Odds of: Avg % Win Chance converted into odds format. Over / Under Perform: Here we compare the Avg % Win Chance (i.e. what percentage of the fights the bookmaker says these fighters should win), with how many actually won. Over performing means more fighters are winning in this odds bracket than should and under performing (negative number) means this odds range under performs and would not be good to bet on.
% Win Chance
=Odds
Fights
Won
Lost
% Won
% Won
Avg % Win Chance
= Odds
Over / Under Perform
Bet $10 on
all fights (ROI)
<10%
+900
24
4
20
17%
8%
+1,132
9%
$253 (105%)
10-15%
+900 to +567
131
10
121
8%
13%
+682
-5%
$-528 (-40%)
15-20%
+567 to +400
245
36
209
15%
18%
+469
-3%
$-402 (-16%)
20-25%
+400 to +300
405
74
331
18%
22%
+351
-4%
$-711 (-18%)
25-30%
+300 to +233
549
146
403
27%
27%
+265
-1%
$-167 (-3%)
30-35%
+233 to +186
630
206
424
33%
33%
+206
0%
$12 (0%)
35-40%
+186 to +150
694
270
424
39%
37%
+168
2%
$290 (4%)
40-45%
+150 to +122
825
358
467
43%
42%
+138
1%
$257 (3%)
45-50%
+122 to +100
604
296
308
49%
47%
+112
2%
$225 (4%)
50-55%
+100 to -122
756
387
369
51%
52%
-110
-1%
$-160 (-2%)
55-60%
-122 to -150
744
407
337
55%
58%
-137
-3%
$-400 (-5%)
60-65%
-150 to -186
759
450
309
59%
62%
-166
-3%
$-384 (-5%)
65-70%
-186 to -233
643
444
199
69%
68%
-209
1%
$135 (2%)
70-75%
-233 to -300
469
338
131
72%
72%
-263
-0%
$-23 (-0%)
75-80%
-300 to -400
418
328
90
78%
77%
-334
2%
$83 (2%)
80-85%
-400 to -567
336
288
48
86%
82%
-459
4%
$147 (4%)
85-90%
-567 to -900
140
122
18
87%
87%
-674
0%
$1 (0%)
90% +
-900
55
51
4
93%
92%
-1,107
1%
$6 (1%)
4215
4212
You can see there's a dead zone in terms of slight to fairly significant favorites under performing compared to their suggested win percentage. I would suggest this is market forces, whereby bettors are putting money on slight favorites and pushing out their odds beyond what should really be a pickem fight. As a result, betting on slight to fairly signifincant underdogs is massively more productive and successful. As it stands now, you could blindly bet on all dogs in this range and make money, so with that a base to your logic, if you are handicapping fights, this is a great place to start!
Massive favorites are currently slightly outperforming their odds but with such fine margins, it's super important to get the best odds possible. Casually betting on big favorites with one bookmaker and not shopping around, would likely end up losing you money.
Winner Odds By Card Position
Draws and NCs have been excluded.
Position
Fights
Fav Wins
%
Dog Wins
%
Avg Odds (Winner)
Fav | Dog
$10 on all Favs
$10 on all Dogs
Main Event
477
333
70%
144
30%
-113
$inf (ROI: inf%)
$-419 (ROI: -9%)
Co Main
453
291
64%
162
36%
-107
$inf (ROI: inf%)
$131 (ROI: 3%)
3
443
304
69%
139
31%
-112
$inf (ROI: inf%)
$-477 (ROI: -11%)
4
442
309
70%
133
30%
-108
$inf (ROI: inf%)
$-449 (ROI: -10%)
5
422
296
70%
126
30%
-107
$inf (ROI: inf%)
$-626 (ROI: -15%)
6
385
263
68%
122
32%
-108
$inf (ROI: inf%)
$-302 (ROI: -8%)
7
354
255
72%
99
28%
-112
$inf (ROI: inf%)
$-754 (ROI: -21%)
8
386
270
70%
116
30%
-103
$inf (ROI: inf%)
$-577 (ROI: -15%)
9
342
233
68%
109
32%
-110
$inf (ROI: inf%)
$-528 (ROI: -15%)
10
333
237
71%
96
29%
-102
$inf (ROI: inf%)
$-687 (ROI: -21%)
11
297
204
69%
93
31%
-101
$inf (ROI: inf%)
$-298 (ROI: -10%)
12
212
150
71%
62
29%
-117
$inf (ROI: inf%)
$-458 (ROI: -22%)
13
97
69
71%
28
29%
-118
$inf (ROI: inf%)
$-225 (ROI: -23%)
MMA Handicapper Directory Performance
Tracking all handicappers in our MMA Handicapper directory, here is their performance on underdogs vs favorites. Big favorite constitutes a higher than 65% chance of winning, according to the bookmaker odds. Big underdog is less than 35%.
Picks
Correct
% Correct
Units Bet
Units Profit
Profit per Pick
ROI
Big Favorites
71777 (19%)
52885
74%
287,998.95
6,474.51
0.09
2%
Slight Favorites
131244 (35%)
73222
56%
379,060.99
-14,511.13
-0.11
-4%
Slight Underdogs
125654 (33%)
56395
45%
283,742.51
14,268.76
0.11
5%
Big Underdogs
50557 (13%)
14247
28%
92,295.43
-407.79
-0.01
-0%
Conclusion
So which is better? Well the UFC Fight Night - Mir vs. Bigfoot event was the biggest upset event in MMA history. Of 11 fights, 10 underdogs won, taking the bookmakers to the cleaners! In general, our period of events so far has been much more favorable to underdogs than normal. In general, according to MMA Junkie, 31.5% of underdogs won in 2014 (UFC fights only). Whereas under our system so far, that stands at
34%. Of the fights we picked, that's even higher, at nan%.
This page will continue to update automatically, so check back at any time for the latest statistic of which is better to pick in UFC / MMA fights: underdogs or favorites.
Notes & Donations
Althought the stats pages are programmed to update automatically, the base information is all added manually. If you noticed I've missed off a debut, or incorrectly marked a fighter as a debut, please let me know on twitter or facebook.
If these stats have helped you, or if you just appreciate the effort, you're more than welcome to donate. Any small amount is greatly appreciated! :)