MMA Betting - Favorites vs Underdogs, which is better?!?!
When betting on MMA should you bet on the favorites or the underdogs? This page continually updates with all major MMA / UFC fights. We'll have a look at simply betting on all favorites or underdogs, we'll break things down by the position on the fight card and we'll look at all levels of underdog / favorite to see what sort of odds over / under-perform their predicted win percentage.
Note, these results use best available odds at either the time the lines closed, just before the fight, or around 7 hours before the first fight of the night, where possible (events after 7th Nov 2014). Of course, if you bet several days / weeks before the fight, you'll get different odds.
MMA / UFC Betting - Favorite vs Underdog Returns over Time
The following MMA stats are based on a $10 bet on the favourite / underdog for every fight on the card.
% Win Chance: A conversion of the bookmaker's odds into their % probability of a win for fighters in this odds range. % Won: The percentage of fighters that actually won in that odds range. Avg % Win Chance: The average bookmaker odds for the fighters in this odds range. = Odds of: Avg % Win Chance converted into odds format. Over / Under Perform: Here we compare the Avg % Win Chance (i.e. what percentage of the fights the bookmaker says these fighters should win), with how many actually won. Over performing means more fighters are winning in this odds bracket than should and under performing (negative number) means this odds range under performs and would not be good to bet on.
% Win Chance
=Odds
Fights
Won
Lost
% Won
% Won
Avg % Win Chance
= Odds
Over / Under Perform
Bet $10 on
all fights (ROI)
<10%
+900
23
4
19
17%
8%
+1,130
9%
$262 (114%)
10-15%
+900 to +567
123
9
114
7%
13%
+680
-6%
$-528 (-43%)
15-20%
+567 to +400
239
36
203
15%
18%
+469
-3%
$-341 (-14%)
20-25%
+400 to +300
390
71
319
18%
22%
+351
-4%
$-697 (-18%)
25-30%
+300 to +233
530
142
388
27%
27%
+265
-1%
$-123 (-2%)
30-35%
+233 to +186
601
195
406
32%
33%
+206
-0%
$-36 (-1%)
35-40%
+186 to +150
661
257
404
39%
37%
+168
2%
$273 (4%)
40-45%
+150 to +122
805
351
454
44%
42%
+138
2%
$290 (4%)
45-50%
+122 to +100
573
285
288
50%
47%
+112
2%
$301 (5%)
50-55%
+100 to -122
728
372
356
51%
52%
-110
-1%
$-169 (-2%)
55-60%
-122 to -150
712
386
326
54%
58%
-137
-4%
$-441 (-6%)
60-65%
-150 to -186
731
431
300
59%
62%
-166
-3%
$-406 (-6%)
65-70%
-186 to -233
613
425
188
69%
68%
-209
2%
$157 (3%)
70-75%
-233 to -300
451
326
125
72%
72%
-263
-0%
$-9 (-0%)
75-80%
-300 to -400
406
319
87
79%
77%
-334
2%
$86 (2%)
80-85%
-400 to -567
322
275
47
85%
82%
-460
3%
$128 (4%)
85-90%
-567 to -900
138
121
17
88%
87%
-677
1%
$9 (1%)
90% +
-900
46
43
3
93%
92%
-1,104
2%
$9 (2%)
4048
4044
You can see there's a dead zone in terms of slight to fairly significant favorites under performing compared to their suggested win percentage. I would suggest this is market forces, whereby bettors are putting money on slight favorites and pushing out their odds beyond what should really be a pickem fight. As a result, betting on slight to fairly signifincant underdogs is massively more productive and successful. As it stands now, you could blindly bet on all dogs in this range and make money, so with that a base to your logic, if you are handicapping fights, this is a great place to start!
Massive favorites are currently slightly outperforming their odds but with such fine margins, it's super important to get the best odds possible. Casually betting on big favorites with one bookmaker and not shopping around, would likely end up losing you money.
Winner Odds By Card Position
Draws and NCs have been excluded.
Position
Fights
Fav Wins
%
Dog Wins
%
Avg Odds (Winner)
Fav | Dog
$10 on all Favs
$10 on all Dogs
Main Event
462
326
71%
136
29%
-113
$inf (ROI: inf%)
$-504 (ROI: -11%)
Co Main
438
285
65%
153
35%
-107
$inf (ROI: inf%)
$-28 (ROI: -1%)
3
427
291
68%
136
32%
-111
$inf (ROI: inf%)
$-392 (ROI: -9%)
4
427
297
70%
130
30%
-107
$inf (ROI: inf%)
$-394 (ROI: -9%)
5
409
287
70%
122
30%
-107
$inf (ROI: inf%)
$-599 (ROI: -15%)
6
372
256
69%
116
31%
-108
$inf (ROI: inf%)
$-331 (ROI: -9%)
7
342
244
71%
98
29%
-109
$inf (ROI: inf%)
$-658 (ROI: -19%)
8
373
263
71%
110
29%
-104
$inf (ROI: inf%)
$-594 (ROI: -16%)
9
329
223
68%
106
32%
-109
$inf (ROI: inf%)
$-475 (ROI: -14%)
10
320
227
71%
93
29%
+100
$inf (ROI: inf%)
$-632 (ROI: -20%)
11
286
195
68%
91
32%
-100
$inf (ROI: inf%)
$-258 (ROI: -9%)
12
202
142
70%
60
30%
-115
$inf (ROI: inf%)
$-411 (ROI: -20%)
13
92
65
71%
27
29%
-115
$inf (ROI: inf%)
$-201 (ROI: -22%)
MMA Handicapper Directory Performance
Tracking all handicappers in our MMA Handicapper directory, here is their performance on underdogs vs favorites. Big favorite constitutes a higher than 65% chance of winning, according to the bookmaker odds. Big underdog is less than 35%.
Picks
Correct
% Correct
Units Bet
Units Profit
Profit per Pick
ROI
Big Favorites
65294 (19%)
48264
74%
260,812.64
7,017.93
0.11
3%
Slight Favorites
118363 (35%)
66403
56%
346,417.33
-11,933.43
-0.10
-3%
Slight Underdogs
112572 (33%)
50316
45%
258,276.14
12,139.46
0.11
5%
Big Underdogs
44425 (13%)
12430
28%
82,375.22
-1,466.46
-0.03
-2%
Conclusion
So which is better? Well the UFC Fight Night - Mir vs. Bigfoot event was the biggest upset event in MMA history. Of 11 fights, 10 underdogs won, taking the bookmakers to the cleaners! In general, our period of events so far has been much more favorable to underdogs than normal. In general, according to MMA Junkie, 31.5% of underdogs won in 2014 (UFC fights only). Whereas under our system so far, that stands at
34%. Of the fights we picked, that's even higher, at nan%.
This page will continue to update automatically, so check back at any time for the latest statistic of which is better to pick in UFC / MMA fights: underdogs or favorites.
Notes & Donations
Althought the stats pages are programmed to update automatically, the base information is all added manually. If you noticed I've missed off a debut, or incorrectly marked a fighter as a debut, please let me know on twitter or facebook.
If these stats have helped you, or if you just appreciate the effort, you're more than welcome to donate. Any small amount is greatly appreciated! :)