Following Magomed Ankalaev’s victory over Alex Pereira at UFC 313, the UFC is at the forefront of everyone’s minds. Heading into the Las Vegas showdown, the bookies couldn’t separate the two fighters. Would Poatan’s kickboxing game be able to keep the Dagestani’s wrestling at bay, or would the swarming grappling of the challenger prove too much to handle?

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In the end, the contest ended up being somewhat of a drab affair. Pereira was uncharacteristically gun-shy, despite stuffing all 12 of his opponents’ takedown attempts. Even so, Ankalaev was the more active fighter, pressuring the champion against the cage without inflicting too much damage. The judges determined that he did enough to get the W, winning by scores of 48-47 on all three cards to secure a unanimous decision victory and the light heavyweight gold.
The bookies deemed that fight as a pure pick ’em affair, making neither man a true favorite or underdog. Over the years, however, certain fighters have reveled in their role as the outsider, upsetting their opponents’ party and on occasion, derailing their championship ambitions.
Dricus du Plessis
South African ace Dricus du Plessis isn’t considered an underdog anymore. The 31-year-old is now the undisputed middleweight champion, and given his recent form, he will be a favorite heading into every defense from here on out – the UFC odds are usually heavily on his side. But that wasn’t always the case.
After beating Darren Till and Derek Brunson as a narrow favorite, Stillknocks put himself into title contention. If he was to go on to grab the gold, however, he would have to do so as a betting underdog. Online UFC odds providers made him a whopping 3.80 underdog for his title eliminator against Robert Whittaker, with the Reaper being made a short-priced 1.28 favorite. Du Plessis would rip up the script, however, winning via second-round knockout and securing a title shot in the process.
That title shot came against brash American Sean Strickland, and once again, the South African was the underdog, albeit a narrow one. Still, he managed to spring the shock once more, winning via a razor-thin split decision to seal the middleweight title. He then defended the gold against former champion Israel Adesanya, and once again, he was the underdog, this time being priced at 2.00 as opposed to the Last Style Bender’s 1.80. Again, it was Du Plessis who emerged victorious.
Merab Dvalishvili
Unlike the aforementioned Du Plessis, Merab Dvalishvili remained a betting underdog even as a champion. Heading into his recent title defense against Umar Nurmagomedov – cousin of former lightweight king Khabib and a member of the famed Dagestani wrestling stable – the Georgian star was a whopping 3.20 underdog. The challenger, meanwhile, found himself as the 1.35 favorite, and he was much fancied to emerge with the gold. Unfortunately for him, he couldn’t get the job done, and Merab emerged with the decision victory and with his title reign still intact.
That wasn’t the first time he has shone as an outsider. When he took the title from Sean O’Malley, Dvalishvili was the narrow underdog, but his mauling offense managed to secure him the strap. He was also a mighty 3.00 outsider in his title eliminator against Petr Yan, with the Russian a 1.33 betting favorite. Still, it was Merab who got the victory and propelled himself into championship contention.
Justin Gaethje
Why do people keep betting against Justin Gaethje? He found himself in the chief support role on that recent UFC 313 card, co-main eventing against Rafael Fiziev. He did so as a 2.22 dog, with his opponent odds-on to get the victory. Just as he has done so many times over the years, though, he would get the victory, and he would do so in convincing fashion.
The first time he truly reveled in the role of outsider was when he upset Tony Ferguson back in 2020. El Cucuy was on the longest winning streak in the welterweight division at the time, claiming 12 straight victories. He was a 1.40 shot to make it 13 and finally secure his spot against champion Khabib Nurmagomedov, but Gaethje had other ideas. He battered Ferguson from pillar to post en route to a fifth-round knockout win, and the former winning machine would never look the same again.
Julianna Pena
Former women’s bantamweight champion Julianna Pena sprung one of the greatest upsets of all time when she choked out Amanda Nunes to claim the title back in 2021. The Venezuelan Vixen was a mighty 7.00 underdog for that contest, but the bookies should have known better than to make her such a massive outsider.
That triumph was Pena’s third major upset on the grand UFC stage. She had beaten Cat Zingano in her Octagon debut back in 2016 as a 2.40 outsider before knocking out Sara McMann in a similar position five years later. In October of last year, Pena claimed the bantamweight title for a second time when she defeated the heavily favored Raquel Pennington. It will be interesting to see how much faith the bookies place in her in her first title defense.