Monthly Archives: April 2015

Recapping UFC 186 – Johnson vs. Horiguchi betting analysis

In terms of the Wisdom of Crowds picks, after two negative events, we’re back in the positive, thanks to a 7 fold parlay coming off at +540.  This event was full of favorite winners. 11 of 12 fights in fact; the most since we started our system, making a parlay win all the more likely.

On individual fights we went 10-2 on predictions but unfortunately the big one didn’t come off. For the first time in a few events the system spat out a big bet on an underdog (Chris Clements). I had personally identified him as a live underdog, so I tentatively OK with the pick despite thinking that Taleb would more than likely win a decision. As it happens, that’s exactly what did happen and we took a big hit of -13.25 units from that fight. Getting another 9 fights right on bets only managed to claw half of that back and it was left to the parlay to save the day.

So how could we improve things?

– The system works on perceived value and doesn’t care whether something is high risk or not. That is both a strength and a weakness. Normally people would put a small bet on Clements if they thought he’d win…. but we put a whopping great bet on. In reality, when it’s a pickem fight with a lot better odds than pickem, that’s the right thing to do. Sometimes you’ll lose big but sometimes you’ll win REALLY big.

– WIth regards Clements vs Taleb in particular, I had made some changes to the equation that probably wouldn’t have seen us bet on Chris Clements but when I ran them, it absolutely decimated our profits from past events. I am confident it would be a better overall equation but that’s just my personal hunch and when the past results went from +240 to +100 units or something crazy like that, I felt it needed more data and just left the equations as they were for a bit longer.

A quick summary of my own predictions:

I personally went 3-0 on straight betting picks.

– Taleb would not win inside the distance.
– Cote to win.
– Laprice to win.

Taleb vs Clements basically went exactly like I expected. If anything Clements looked a bit worse. Cote vs Riggs was more competitive than i expected, as was the Laprice vs Barberena fight. I have no idea why Laprice gassed like he did and did not see that coming at all. I could see him dropping down to 145lbs as I can only assume he was struggling with his larger opponent’s size advantage.

In parlays, I was going for a 5 fold. 4 fights to go the decision and Bec Rawlings on the next event. 3 of 4 fights went to a decision and unfortunately I did what I tell people never to do when it comes to MMA betting – I added a fight into the parlay based on other people’s opinions (Kaufman vs Davis). I know virtually nothing about these two but everyone was saying it would be a decision. Sigh. All mine came off, this one didn’t. Never mind, I won’t do it again! 🙂

More Picks for this weekend’s UFC186 – Johnson vs. Horiguchi

As well as betting picks, I’ll give my opinions on some extra fights and explain why I don’t want to bet on them:

Demetrious Johnson vs Kyoji Horiguchi
C.B. Dollaway vs Michael Bisping
Fabio Maldonado vs Quinton Jackson
John Makdessi vs Shane Campbell
Alexis Davis vs Sarah Kaufman

I have no particular opinion on the above fights that you won’t have heard elsewhere.

Thomas Almeida vs Yves Jabouin
So this guy’s the new UFC prodigy. Well, maybe so. However, he’s very hitable, specifically very jabable. I wouldn’t bet him personally at these odds. I’d wanna see how he deals with someone who just leg kicks the crap out of him first and basically just get a bit more “data”. I feel like Almeida does more than likely win but if I was in Yves’ corner I’d be asking him to work the front leg like there was no tomorrow and keep that lateral movement going (which is his natural style). Almeida is a little bit like a higher tempo, less flat footed Nick Diaz and I would like to see what happened if he got slowed down by those leg kicks. I think Jabouin’s output is a little too tentative here and he’s probably too chinny but with a perfect gameplan it could be a very close fight.

Joe Riggs vs Patrick Cote
I’m big on Cote in this fight and have placed a 11 unit bet on him at -180. These odds are way too good. Joe Riggs is done as far as I am concerned. Though Cote’s chin might not be what it used to be, it’s still really solid and I just see him as significantly better than Riggs everywhere.

Bryan Barberena vs Chad Laprise
You can check out my reasoning for an 11 unit bet on Laprice in the post below this one!

David Michaud vs Olivier Aubin-Mercier
Aubin-Mercier is a big favourite here but he definitely worries me and I wouldn’t bet it. He’s a rudimentary, single shot striker. He’s hitable. He fights at a fairly slow tempo. Michaud is no great shakes either but he looks like he hits hard and I would bet he’s a better wrestler than Aubin-Mercier. I see this being a super-scrappy/scrambly, close fight and I wouldn’t touch it with a barge pole when it comes to betting.

Chris Clements vs Nordine Taleb
Basically I think Nordine Taleb will not win inside the distance. You can get that at -171. However, you get better odds if you place the two bets separately on Chris Clements straight up (+226) and Nordine Taleb to win the decision (+171). I’m edging towards a Taleb Decision but I just don’t see the guy as a finisher. He has a good jab, perhaps some power but he does not commit to a finish. When he takes people down he’s more than happy to just sit in half guard and drop ponderous elbows. Chris Clements is a bulldoze fowards, winging looping punches striker with a lot of power. He telegraphs his shots but still lands. He does land a lot of kicks, which I think could work against Taleb. The guy’s tough as nails. He got tooled by Matt Riddle but Riddle is basically a polar opposite of Taleb in terms of aggression.

Jessica Rakoczy vs Valerie Letourneau
I saw another (very prominent but less successful than he makes out) tipster say these two were lacking in technique. My god. Rakoczy was an 8 time world boxing champion. Letourneau has extremely good technique. We haven’t seen anything of Letourneau on the ground in the UFC so I think this one’s impossible to call personally and nobody should be betting it… There are just soooo many unknowns. Age (Rakoczy is nearly 40), long layoffs, insufficient data, Letourneau seems to cut easily. Blurgh…. still, I do think it will be a good fight! If I was forced to pick I would maybe say Rakoczy was a better bet because she’s the underdog.

Aisling Daly vs Randa Markos
I would side with Markos here. This was one of my initial bets but I watched Daly vs Chambers yesterday and Daly beasted her and looked very slick on the ground, so I am not betting it. I’m pretty sure this will end up as a decision one way or the other but at -185 I don’t think it’s that worth betting.

UFC 186: Johnson vs. Horiguchi Betting Tips

I’ve decided to start offering my own personal betting tips on MMA and my first tip is Chad Laprice. You can get him at -296 or;

Inside the distance: +197
Wins by decision: +111

I’m very confident in him as a pick but can’t decide if he’s going to get the finish or not, so I’m just going to go with the big 11 units on him straight up.

Barberina is just not on his level BUT Laprice doesn’t appear to be a finisher at the highest level. Laprice had back control in his last fight a couple of times and couldn’t do anything with it. However, he seems to be an extremely intelligent fighter in terms of gameplanning, taking strikers down and keeping it standing with excellent takedown defense against the grappler, in his last two fights respectively.