Category Archives: Women’s MMA

Betting on Women’s MMA: Trends and Opportunities

Women's MMA betting

Mixed martial arts (MMA) is a dynamic sport that integrates striking and grappling techniques from many martial arts disciplines. As its popularity escalates throughout North America and globally, so too is the interest in wagering on MMA.

Wagering on women’s MMA has gained significant popularity in recent years as the sport expands globally. Prominent female athletes such as Valentina Shevchenko, Weili Zhang, Cris Cyborg, and Kayla Harrison persist in attracting attention to the sport despite the retirement of iconic figures like Amanda Nunes and Ronda Rousey.

Regardless of whether you are an experienced bettor or a novice in sports wagering, it is crucial to comprehend the intricacies of betting, particularly in women’s MMA. In this detailed guide, we will elucidate the most popular women’s MMA betting markets and the methods for placing bets on them and assist you in understanding the intricacies of this betting landscape as a whole.

Know Your Odds

Wagering on women’s MMA encompasses multiple bet types, including selecting the outright victor, forecasting the winning method, or estimating the fight’s duration. Comprehending the probabilities, analyzing competitors, and overseeing your financial standing is essential for successful, long-term wagering.

Let us examine the particulars to assist you in making knowledgeable wagers on your preferred fighters and matches.

Women’s MMA Odds: Understand the Basics

Prior to putting any wagers in at the sportsbook, it is imperative to comprehend the mechanics of odds. MMA fight odds are generally expressed in moneyline format, with a favorite denoted by a minus sign (-) and an underdog by a plus sign (+). These odds indicate the potential payoff linked to wagering on each combatant, for example:

A favorite at -200 requires a wager of $200 to secure a profit of $100, whereas an underdog at +120 indicates that a $100 bet would yield a profit of $120.

Interpreting Positive and Negative Odds

The positive and negative system (-/+) used in American odds formats becomes clear as one becomes accustomed to it. Favorites are anticipated to prevail, resulting in a diminished payment, but underdogs entail greater risk and, therefore, a heightened return. It is essential to recognize that odds may vary according to betting trends, making the timing of your wager as significant as the bet itself.

The Most Popular WMMA Betting Markets

In today’s mixed martial arts wagering landscape, the sheer number of available bet types and markets has grown exponentially compared to just ten years ago. Let’s take a deeper dive into the most commonly approached women’s MMA betting markets:

The Moneyline 

MMA’s predominant and uncomplicated wager is the moneyline bet, wherein you select the fighter you anticipate will triumph in the contest. This form of wager serves as an exceptional foundation for novices using the plus and minus system outlined in the preceding section.

Round Totals (Over/Under) 

Over/under bets are to wagering on the length of the battle. Sportsbooks will establish a round total, allowing you to wager on whether the fight will go over or under the set total.

The most common total in women’s MMA is Over/Under 2.5. The 2.5 represents two and a half rounds, and the length of each round in MMA is five minutes. Therefore, as bettors, our aim is to predict whether the fight will end -by KO, Submission, or DQ – or survive the 12-minute, 30-second mark.

Parlays and Proposition Bets 

Proposition bets, or prop bets, provide diverse wagering choices, including predicting the precise round where a fight will conclude or whether it will be decided on the judges’ scorecards.

Parlays enable the amalgamation of many wagers for the opportunity of a greater return. All selections in a parlay must be successful for the bet to win, and there is no limit to how many predictions you can place in one parlay.

Method of Victory 

For a more sophisticated betting experience, you may wager how a fighter-specific victory will be achieved. This entails forecasting the bout’s outcome as a decision, knockout, or submission. These wagers necessitate an extensive understanding of the fighters’ techniques and capabilities.

Decision and submission results are significantly more common in women’s MMA than in KO/TKO outcomes.

 Top Tips for Handicapping Women’s MMA

Achieving success in MMA betting need not be arbitrary; it can be undertaken with strategic planning and meticulous analysis. It is not merely favoring the combatant with the best trash talk or favorable odds; it involves making informed decisions based on statistics and observations.

The Convenience of Online Sportsbooks

Before delving into WMMA betting, finding a trustworthy sportsbook is imperative.

Online sportsbooks offer enhanced convenience, superior odds, and more substantial bonuses – claim sportsbook promo codes here – than conventional betting establishments. These platforms are the preferred choice for placing WMMA wagers, offering a variety of alternatives and current odds.

Research, Tape Study, and Analysis  

Examine the combatants’ backgrounds, techniques, and recent performances thoroughly. There is a plethora of MMA stats available for you to browse. Evaluate aspects such as their grappling proficiency, striking skills, endurance, and performance under duress. Examine their performance against opponents with comparable styles, all of which can be achieved by tape study (watching past fights). 

Pay Attention to Weight Cuts

Analyze the methods fighters employ to achieve intentional weight loss, referred to as weight cuts, before the weigh-ins. Inadequately managed weight reductions can result in complications such as dehydration and diminished endurance, adversely affecting performance during the fight. Assessing a fighter’s physical condition during weigh-ins is also crucial for gaining further insights.

Event Locations 

Certain fighters perform superiorly in various venues, whether characterized by the dimensions of the octagon or influenced by factors such as travel, jet lag, or home arena advantage.

Push Your Emotions to the Side 

Base decisions on empirical evidence and analytical reasoning rather than personal bias or emotion. Wagering on a favored women’s fighter without analyzing the odds and their opponent may lead to losses.

Manage Your Bankroll and Bet Responsibly 

A frequently neglected yet crucial element of wagering is bankroll management. Establish boundaries to guarantee that gambling stays an enjoyable and responsible pursuit. Do not wager more than you can afford to lose, and contemplate allocating a designated sum for MMA betting.

Betting on Women’s MMA: Final Thoughts

Wagering on women’s MMA can be an exhilarating way to interact with the sport, contingent upon your comprehension of the chances, familiarity with the many wager varieties, diligent study, and proficient bankroll management. Regardless of your experience level, the essential factors for success are informed decision-making and appropriate wagering habits.

WMMA betting provides an exhilarating experience for combat sports enthusiasts. By understanding several betting types, remaining knowledgeable about boxers and events, and implementing prudent financial management, one can appreciate the sport while potentially securing profits. Ensure responsible wagering while savoring the exhilarating excitement of women in the cage.

7 Greatest Underdogs in MMA History

Demetrius Johnson knee to the head

In the world of MMA, the thrill of an underdog triumph is unparalleled. Fighters enter the cage with varied skills—be it grappling, striking, or sheer willpower—ready to defy the odds.

With the sport’s unpredictable nature, filled with submissions, crushing blows, and strategic mastery, every battle holds the potential for an upset.

Let’s delve into the riveting stories of seven underdogs who defied expectations and forever etched their names in MMA history.

#1. Michael Bisping

Michael Bisping’s journey to the UFC middleweight title is a classic underdog story that captivated MMA fans.

When he faced Luke Rockhold for the second time, few believed he could succeed given their previous match’s outcome. Bisping, however, demonstrated resilience and determination, having won three consecutive fights after that setback.

With just 17 days’ notice to prepare for the rematch against Rockhold, expectations were low for the +575 underdog.

Yet, Bisping defied all odds, delivering a stunning first-round knockout and capturing the UFC middleweight belt, cementing his legacy in MMA history.

#2. Josh Burkman

Josh Burkman’s clash against Jon Fitch at WSOF 3 was a vivid display of unexpected victory. Entering the fight as a +260 underdog, Burkman faced Fitch, a formidable opponent recently considered second to Georges St. Pierre in the welterweight division.

Despite Fitch’s impressive UFC track record, Burkman showed no fear or hesitance. A mere 41 seconds into the bout, Burkman executed a perfect guillotine choke, rendering Fitch unconscious and marking an unforgettable upset.

This victory shocked the MMA community and proved Burkman’s tenacity and skill on a major stage.

#3. Adriano Moraes

Adriano Moraes shocked the MMA world in a matchup against the legendary Demetrious Johnson at ONE Championship. With odds stacked at +500, fans were quick to label him the underdog.

Nevertheless, Moraes proved his mettle by staying aggressive and tactical right from the start. Despite Johnson, the longest-reigning flyweight champion in history, gaining momentum, Moraes unleashed a thunderous right hand paired with a decisive knee, ending the fight.

This victory marked a historic moment as Moraes became the first fighter to finish Demetrious Johnson inside the cage—an achievement untouched by other top contenders.

#4. Matt Serra

Matt Serra’s legendary upset at UFC 69 redefined the unexpected in MMA lore. As a massive underdog, he earned his title shot not traditionally but by winning The Ultimate Fighter 4 Welterweight Tournament.

Facing Georges St-Pierre, who had recently dominated Matt Hughes, Serra seemed overshadowed. Yet, as the fight progressed, his determination was palpable, showcasing the look of a man who perhaps knew something others missed.

In less than two minutes, Serra unleashed a massive hook and follow-up punches, achieving a victory that crowned him a UFC champion and shocked the MMA world.

#5. Nate Diaz

Nate Diaz’s unexpected victory over Conor McGregor at UFC 196 remains a classic tale of grit and resilience. Hailing from Stockton, California, fans cherished Diaz for his exciting fighting style and candid personality.

Set to fight McGregor on a mere 11 days’ notice after Rafael dos Anjos withdrew, few believed in Diaz’s chances against the Irish superstar riding a 15-fight win streak. Yet, Diaz turned expectations on their head.

In the second round, with remarkable composure, he landed a clean jab-cross combo that rattled McGregor, leading to a swift submission and a memorable upset.

#6. Julianna Pena

Julianna Pena’s triumph over Amanda Nunes at UFC 269 is a testament to her tenacity and strategic approach. Entering the fight as a +500 underdog, Pena showcased an unyielding spirit against arguably the most dominant women’s champion in MMA history.

With Nunes’s illustrious reputation and a 12-fight win streak, the odds seemed insurmountable. Yet, Pena, unfazed by her opponent’s past accolades, relentlessly pressured Nunes with a relentless barrage of strikes.

This tactic paid off as she capitalized on Nunes’s fatigue, executing a decisive submission in the second round to claim the women’s bantamweight title.

#7. Holly Holm

Holly Holm’s stunning upset over Ronda Rousey at UFC 193 is a testament to discipline and strategic excellence. Going into the fight as a +1200 underdog, with a background in boxing and a perfect 10-0 MMA record, few anticipated Holm’s dominance.

Rousey, renowned for her rapid first-round submissions, was expected to overpower Holm. However, Holm’s striking prowess shone through as she tactically dismantled Rousey, deftly avoiding takedown attempts.

The pinnacle of her victory came with a flawless left roundhouse kick, followed by decisive ground-and-pound, stopping the fight and claiming the bantamweight title.

The Bottom Line

Underdogs in MMA hold a special place in the hearts of fans, inspiring us with their resilience and unfaltering belief. These seven fighters are just a few examples of how the underdog can triumph against all odds in the unpredictable world of MMA.

So, next time you watch a fight, remember that anything can happen. Also, don’t forget to check the FanDuel UFC odds; they’re always changing, and who knows, you may just find the next underdog to bet on.

When should you hedge bet? (MMA)

Blog by Mike Tycoon (site owner of Bet MMA). Link: MMA Handicapper Profile
Blog post also includes general discussion of use of bet value analysis tools and when you should bet props in general.

This is a bit of a cathartic post for me after failing to post what I believe was an obvious hedge bet on Michelle Wateson by submission against Paige VanZant. I stated in my writeup that whilst I was picking VanZant, I thought she would be in significant peril early;

“I’m pretty sure that at some points PVZ will end up in bad positions (maybe getting mounted, maybe ending up in armbars) and you’ll probably go “oh man, this was a bad pick” but in the end PVZ will wear Waterson down and come out with a win, hopefully by late stoppage because those odds are crazy good.
…..
[Paige] gives up bad positions to escape, so I would worry about Michelle diving on a sub: That’s the reason I give her a 30% chance of winning rather than the KO, so bear that in mind if you want to hedge. You can get Waterson by sub at 8.0 / +700.”
You can read the full writeup on my handicapper profile.

So why didn’t I actually post a hedge bet tip? I was giving that early sub a rougly 25% chance of happening and the odds suggested just a 12.5% chance of a Waterson sub. That’s a hudge edge. I can’t remember the exact odds but Waterson Sub R1 was at least 16/1,

I’ve made a new betting tool this week: A bet value calculator. It lets you input the odds offered by a bookmaker, then your own perceived odds / probability. If you input 8.0 as bookie odds, then 25% chance as your perceived chance, that pumps out an average ROI of 100%.

The point of that tool is to make you bet sensibly, based on the cold hard facts of ROI. The difficult thing is following through.

Just 4 events prior to this missed hedge opportunity, I did basically exactly the same hedge under very similar circumstances. I believed Scoggins had roughly a 75% chance of a win at 1.61 odds. That on its own is only an average ROI of 21%. That’s just about enough in itself to justify a bet but for me, Munhoz’s only real chance of a win was a sub. So to hedge out we’ve covered virtually every eventuality with just an extra 0.5 units and had a 1U profit if Munhoz won by sub or if Scoggins won by any method.

scoggins vs munhoz submission bet

So I’ve been thinking a lot about why I did this hedge officially and not the Waterson sub hedge. Virtually the same odds, virtually the same % chance given by me of them coming off.

I think the reason I went for the Munhoz hedge was because I viewed Scoggins as having a much lower chance of getting a finish and I also believed Munhoz would be dangerous for the whole fight with that guillotine.

On the other hand, I believed (and still believe) there was a very limited window where Waterson would be dangerous. Once PVZ got through 1 and a half rounds, I thought the fight was all hers and I thought she’d get a finish.

However, there’s flawed logic at work here. It shouldn’t matter if there’s a 1 minute window for a fighter to win or a 15 minute window. If you view the chance of a finish at 25% in both instances, you have to use the same logic. Hedge if there’s value in hedging!

You don’t always have to hedge to make the same profit no matter what the outcome. I frequently put on a cover bet to break even if a perceived risk occurs. In this instance I wish I had put 1 unit on Waterson to win by submission at any time. If it came off I would still have lost money on the fight as I had 8U on PVZ straight up at 1.91 and 1.4U on round props. However, it’s all about bankroll management. Best case scenario I’d make a massive profit on a R4 or 5 finish. Worst case scenario I’d make a 3.4U loss on the fight; a pretty insignificant worst case scenario for a massive potential win. As it is I lost 9.4U on the fight, which is definitely significant.

I will say that you can’t hedge on everything; it gets too complicated and you just eat away at your profit. However, again, try and use raw numerical facts where possible, not just instinct. To do that, use the Bet MMA site’s “your odds tool“. Fill in your % chance of each thing happening then compare the odds produced at the bottom of the page to the real odds offered. If you can cover 90% of the outcomes instead of 70%, for a slightly smaller profit, DO IT. DO IT EVERY TIME.

Interestingly, if you JUST bet these hedges, and your analysis is accurate, you’ll actually generate a better ROI just from the hedges. That Munhoz sub prop generates a perceived ROI of 125%. Comparing that to the Scoggins straight up ROI of 21% and it really makes you think. If you don’t mind losing more bets than you win, it’s a very credible and actually far more sensible way of betting to just bet props… as long as your analysis is good of course! 🙂

Below is my pre-fight breakdown for the PVZ vs Waterson fight in terms of % chances of each thing happening. (Done using the your odds tool).

Paige VanZant vs Waterson Odds

N.B. This is a rough approximation of my thoughts based on what I remember entering… Looking at my writeup I was saying a 1.43 odds for PVZ straight up so I was giving Waterson a lower chance by 3% on something… Anyway you can only approximate your thoughts either after or before the fight….

The point is, I didn’t follow through properly on my own analysis, however approximated. I bet PVZ straight up which is an average ROI of around 30%. Comparatively, the Under 4.5  was available at 2.25 decimal (+125 American) and my suggested line for that was 1.37, which means an average ROI of 64.23%. So if my analysis was right, I should really have gone big on the under. My bias prevented that because I hate betting the under. I think inherently it’s a risky bet as compared to betting the over, which I bet very regularly (38% of my prop/parlay bets) and hit at a very high percentage (90%). Whilst that sounds great, it’s at much lower odds. I just don’t like losing and am a bit of a “slow and steady wins the race” kind of a guy when really, the logical numerical thing to do is trust the numbers and if that means betting the under sometimes, I’ve gotta do it.

I made the bet value calculator this week specifically because this is something I want to get better at. Hopefully you will see more props from me going forward and I would encourage you to use both of the tools I’ve linked in this blog on a regular basis to tighten up your own ROI.

Quick links for access:
My Odds Tool for MMA Fights
Bet Value Calculator

Why there’s nothing wrong with the treatment of Women’s MMA by the UFC

If you’re gunna call me a “pissant nobody”, imply I have a small penis then tell everyone to avoid doing business with me, just cos I politely disagreed with your article, you should probably expect some sort of response. Here it is 🙂

To make it worth reading for everyone else, this isn’t just a blog to defend myself in this petty beef; I’ll include some interesting stats too!

Anyway, Jonathan Snowden, lead combat writer for Bleacher report, wrote this article on Women’s MMA in the UFC. Basically it said that the UFC don’t put women high enough up on the card and they are treated unfairly / not given enough air time.

I disagree with that point and politely said so on twitter. It escalated on his part, he started insulting me, then deleted all the stuff where he acted like a douche and told people not to do business with me.

Well, that’s not cool, so I thought I’d note down as much of the convo as I could and post it up. You’ll have to take my word for it this is what he said. My side is verifiable in my “Tweets and replies” but you won’t find his messages anywhere. I copied the ones I got an email notification for but I didn’t get a notification for all of them (dunno why… maybe he deleted them really quickly). Anyway, here it is;

twitter conversation with Jonathan Snowden

twitter conversation with Jonathan Snowden

So yeah, that was weird!

He mentioned in another tweet at the same time that he’s having a tough week with some personal stuff, which sucks and I hope that all works out as best as possible. That doesn’t mean you get to tell people not to do business with me, when it was you who had a complete hissy fit over a very vanilla difference of opinions!

I’m not in this industry to get involved in beef. If he wants to make up, that’s cool by me. I know sometimes people go way over the top and act inappropriately.

Anyway, forget that… I’m just posting it effectively to document my side of the story, for anyone who actually reads that tweet saying not to do business with me. The interesting part is actually the UFC’s treatment of Women’s MMA, so let’s have a look at that.


UFC treatment of Women’s MMA

As someone who’s spent a lot of time watching WMMA lately, I think the UFC do a perfectly good job. I’m no UFC apologist by any means… I think they are distastefully and unnecessarly ruthless on a lot of issues and I think that brutal attitude to business is what causes a lot of people to write unjustly critical blogs, like Jonathan’s.

This is the general gist of the article by Jonathan.

“The sad truth is that despite a lack of interest in a Tate-versus-Rousey trilogy, it’s the best women’s bantamweight fight the UFC has to offer—and a problem they’ve created for themselves by all but ignoring women’s MMA. UFC, for all the progress made and the courage shown bringing women into the fold, still doesn’t seem fully committed to the experiment. 

The promotion, quite obviously, is fully invested in the Ronda Rousey business. Women’s MMA, generally, hasn’t gotten the same love. According to Bleacher Report’s research, fewer than 10 percent of all UFC fights so far in 2015 have featured women, making both women’s bantamweight and the new strawweight division the least active divisions in the sport. 

The UFC has a once-in-a-lifetime talent in Rousey….. UFC is failing her by letting the bantamweight division fall to pieces around her. Want to find the next Rousey? She won’t be the woman flailing away on Fight Pass or sitting at home waiting for a call.”

My response:

Yep, Tate vs Rousey 3 is the best we have to offer. Yep, that kinda sucks. That isn’t REMOTELY to do with where on the card women fight and to suggest that is nonsense. Jonathan states himself that Rousey is a once in a lifetime talent. THAT’s why the UFC are, quite understandably, having problems finding her competitive matchups!

If a fighter isn’t good enough to beat (or even compete with) Rousey, fighting higher up the card isn’t going to change that.

The UFC are already fast tracking talent to their main card faster than they would in other, more established divisions. Holly Holm was a co-main event in her first UFC fight. She looked fairly laclustre. In her second bout, again on the main card, she looked much better. I have no doubt she would have benefitted from a less high profile introduction to the UFC.

Paige VanZant looked very sloppy in her UFC debut (on the undercard) but was fast tracked to  the main card in her next fight and looked a fair bit better. Still, in terms of actual talent, I’d argue she is being pushed well ahead of where she deserves to be in terms of card position, based on the UFCs desire to fast track the womens’ divisions into a more mature and developed state (i.e. exactly what Jonathan claims they’re not doing).

Looking at things from the other side; are there many women who deserve to be on the main card who aren’t? Surely that’s the obvious question to ask, rather than blindly looking at stats and trying to draw inaccurate cause and effect assumptions.

I can only think of MAYBE one and that’s Valerie Letourneau. She’s only had 2 UFC fights and I think she’s a solid talent. She’ll be main (or maybe co-main) eventing the undercard on Aug 23rd. Holloway vs Oliveira. She’s a good fighter but even then, she should be perfectly content with a solid position on the undercard.

Don’t underestimate the quality of fighters down there. Aljamain Sterling has only fought on the undercard so far (3 times). He’s vastly superior as a prospect to anything WMMA has to offer… It’s really not an insult to be out of the spotlight – rather it’s exactly what an up and coming MMA fighter should want and expect, as they build up their skillset. Throwing people in above their head (exposure wise or in terms of competition) is a great way to get them to under-perform and consequently have people write them off. Once a fighter’s been written off, it’s a lot harder to build that hype back up again!

A good example of that would see us going back to Holly Holm. I think she’s probably going to be the best short-medium term threat to Rousey. If she’d been given a bit of an easier entrance into the UFC, I think she could have been further along the line to justifying a title fight and certainly, with a couple of finishes on her record as opposed to a couple of decisions, the UFC would have less of a problem hyping that fight. As it is now, nobody’s going to want to see that fight either and it’s because they’ve had to fast track her to relatively tough opposition.

So anyway, let’s have a quick look at what I believe to be irrelevant stats, quoted by Jonathan… How many fights have there been in each weight class, on the main event of cards?

*NOTE…. I’m programming this as I write the blog. All the blog above was just my opinion, so let’s see what the facts say.

Fights on main UFC card by weight class since Nov '14

Fights on main UFC card by weight class since Nov ’14. Table from our MMA fight stats page (filter UFC fights only).

Since we started logging fights in Nov 14, there have been more Women’s Strawweight fights than male Bantamweight and Flyweight fights. By Jonathan’s logic, you can say the UFC are “all but ignoring” those weight classes. There’s also basically the same amount of fights in the light heavyweight division, which has historically been the UFCs marquee division!

As I said in my tweets to him, really, the actual reason is just the amount of talent. You can’t force these things… If there aren’t enough fighters in a weight class, male or female, you can’t make the fights!

Demetrious Johnson will be fighting John Dodson in his next title fight. Dodson’s last fight was absolutely horrible but there just aren’t enough human beings (and consequently fighters) at 125lbs, to find any other title contenders. It’s nothing to do with the UFC neglecting the division.

I could post a bell curve of the size of human beings and it would basically be exactly the same as the above graph… Men are generally 155-170lbs (when they aren’t stuffing their faces with McDonalds), so unsurprisingly, those divisions have the most fights. Likewise, there are more women who, when in shape, weight around 115-125lbs than 135-145lbs, so there are more 115lb women’s fights… It’s no conspiracy or negligence from the UFC, it’s just human biology.

So in response to this article, I decided to program a new page, to work out the average fight card position for each weight class and how many fights were main card vs undercard. As you can see from the table below, the UFC (since Nov 2014) has somewhat over-sold the heavyweight and light-heavyweight divisions but other than that, it’s much of a muchness. Women’s strawweight actually has the third most fights on the main card, as a percentage of overall fights in the division. If you wanna pick divisions that have been neglected, it’s clearly the mens 135 and 125lbers, as evidenced by the UFC being forced to use Dodson again (as mentioned earlier).

Fighters' card position by weight class since 2014. From new page created at MMA Fight Card Position by Weight Class

Fighters’ card position by weight class since 2014. From new page created at MMA Fight Card Position by Weight Class

One other thing I wanted to do was to look at how many fighters are making their debut in each of these divisions. Obviously fighters making their debut don’t get put on main cards (very often) and given that the women’s divisions (particularly the 115lb division) are new, you’re going to get a lot more debuts!

Below is a table of fights where one or more of the fighters were making their UFC debuts.

Average card position for fights where one or both fighters is making their UFC debut

Average card position for fights where one or both fighters is making their UFC debut

As you can see, the women’s fights get a much higher number of fights put straight onto the main card. Their average card position is the 2nd and 3rd highest of any weight class in the entire UFC (only welterweight is higher). Completely contrary to the criticism in the original Bleacher Report article.

One thing that is definitely apparent; there aren’t a massive amount of fighters making their debuts in quite a lot of the divisions. Light heavyweight only has one!

The thing is, all this sort of stuff is cyclical. Our stats are only since November. The original Bleacher Report article was only taking stats from 2015. That’s far too short of a sample size. We had a women’s 135lb division TUF which finished in November 2013, so if we’d done this table last year, it would look a lot more like the UFC “cared” a lot more about 135lb women’s fights.

That’s the problem with stats; if you don’t look at them in an appropriate context, you can make them say whatever you want.

My suggestion as someone who’s basically made a living from stats for the last 6 years, first by running  MMA Tycoon and now with Bet MMA; look for interesting stats, then ask yourself first and foremost, why are these stats probably misleading? If you can’t think of any reason they’re misleading, well then you may just have found an interesting trend!

So going back to the original point of the article? Are the UFC neglecting and ignoring women’s MMA?

No, of course not. Fundamentally that would make zero sense and you don’t need stats to back that up. Rousey is probably (I have no idea, I’m just guessing), the UFC’s second highest PPV draw? Their PPV ratings have been dropping pretty steadily over the last few years so they need Rousey and whether you like them or not, the UFC aren’t dumb. They know they need contenders for her.

As I said in one tweet, the UFC REALLY don’t want Meisha Tate to be top contender but the division is just threadbare, throughout the entire MMA world, not just in the UFC. The UFC already signed pretty much all of the top fighters and they’re trying to build up more in Invicta. This isn’t the old Pride era, with fragmented talent… What you see in the UFC rankings is basically it.

On a more positive note, in a division with more talent (female 115lbs), they’re bringing in a lot more new fighters (more than any other division) and pushing those new fighters beyond what they’ve done in all but 1 of the male divisions in terms of general card position and number of fights on the main card.

You can’t illustrate that fact much clearler than the table below. Does that look like they’re “all but ignoring” women’s MMA to you?

Debutant fights in each UFC weight class as a % of total fights

Debutant fights in each UFC weight class as a % of total fights


Summary

Jonathan, I hope whatever problem you’re dealing with sorts itself out and I’m sorry to hear you’ve got some problems to deal with at all, however it’s not cool to tell people not to deal with me just because I disagreed with you. I have no idea if you’re a nice guy or not. If you are I’m sure you’ll accept you massively over-reacted and were out of order and will retract that comment. If you wanna leave it up, no worries, shit happens… but that would be a complete douchebag move.

In terms of the stats. There are a hell of a lot of interesting statistical trends to look at in MMA. I’m developing more and more all the time. You can view all that via our MMA Stats page.

A few interesting ones related to Women’s MMA
– There are significantly more finishes at 135lbs than 115lbs. (Currently 56%, despite a recent run of decisions).
Joanne Calderwood beating Cortney Casey  was the first women’s fight opening a UFC main card not to have finished as a decision.
– The 115lbs division has 57% decisions overall (2nd most, only behind the men’s 125lb division).
– And finally, a quick comparison graph of finishes / decisions for men vs women’s MMA fights. As you can see, there are a lot more subs in WMMA and also a more even spread of round finishes (i.e. not so heavily skewed towards R1 finishes). I have my theories about why but you’re welcome to play around with the stats yourself here. Start by removing heavyweight from the stats and you’ll see a massive drop in R1 finishes! Compare that to the women’s fights and you can see the TKOs are more from an accumulation of damage in the later rounds.

Men vs Women MMA stats

Men vs Women MMA stats

Thanks for your time and happy MMAing… or something like that! Oh and be nice to each other… We’re all fans of the same sport, whether we agree with each other or not!