Since the UFC launched in 1993, it has transformed mixed martial arts from a minority sport to one that has more than 700 million fans worldwide. In the US, it’s more popular than ever to watch MMA and to bet on contests.
Placing MMA bets is exciting, but there are also downfalls that can adversely affect your chances of betting success. We will examine 10 of these downfalls in more detail and discuss how you can improve your betting experience.
Relying on Records and Ignoring Fighter Strengths
You may think that betting on popular fighters with an impressive record is a good idea, but there can be issues with doing this. Styles are highly influential in MMA, so a successful fighter may not necessarily be victorious if the fighting style of his opponent does not suit his strengths. For example, a fighter with several victories by submission may struggle against a grappler.
This makes it essential to study a fighter’s skillset, strengths, and weaknesses instead of solely concentrating on the stats. Looking outside of the stats also helps you to see if a fighter’s winning streak reflects their actual prowess or is due to a run of poor opponents.
Lack of Fight Metric Analysis
While stats do not tell the whole story, it’s important not to ignore them completely and go by gut instinct. Metrics like takedown defense, striking accuracy, and cardio are a good starting point for understanding a player’s strengths. Using them in conjunction with an all-around assessment of fighter abilities gives you the best chance of betting success.
Not Considering Weight Cuts
Weight cuts are common practice in MMA. The process of weight-cutting happens when a fighter loses weight quickly before a competition. This is done to meet the weight limit for a specific class. The problem with weight-cutting is that it can reduce a fighter’s strength and stamina and adversely affect their overall performance.
Failure to account for these potential issues can result in betting on an under-par fighter. So, it’s essential to monitor weigh-ins and look for news about potential problems meeting the weight limit.
Betting Based on Emotions
It’s very easy to get carried away with your emotions when betting. You may instinctively want to back your favorite fighter or bet against a fighter you do not like. The problem with betting based on emotions is that it often does not reflect the likelihood of a particular result.
To avoid issues with emotional betting, always remain logical. Use facts, stats, and broader analysis to determine who to bet on rather than your heart.
Betting on the Underdog Without Good Reason
You obviously get better returns if you are successful when wagering on the underdog in a fight because their odds of winning are longer. While the opportunity to achieve these returns is tempting, it’s not good to simply bet on the underdog all the time.
The reason for this is that underdogs win less often than favorites, so you are more likely to lose your stake than win the bet. So, only bet on an underdog when your research shows you it’s a good idea to do so. For instance, the underdog may have a style that gives them a good chance of winning unexpectedly.
Ignoring Fighter Layoffs and Injuries
A fighter who has been injured often takes time to get back to their best. This means it may be good to avoid betting on a returning fighter for a while, even if they had an excellent record before their injury.
Researching their training camp and examining their recent activity helps you to determine when to bet on them again.
Failing to Recognize Value in Betting Odds
If you only bet on favorites or big-name fighters, you may miss some excellent odds for fighters who are less well-known. So, it’s always a good idea to study the odds available for several contests and fighters before choosing where to put your money.
It’s also a good idea to check the odds for these contests and fighters at a few different betting sites since the odds may differ from site to site. This means that you could get higher odds for the exact same fighter and contest at one betting site over the other.
Betting on Every Fight
Remember that you do not have to bet on every fight on a card. It can be tempting to do so because it enhances your excitement. However, not every fight provides good value. Be selective in your choices and select the fights where you have a good chance of betting success and good value odds are available.
Failing to Stick to a Budget and Chasing Losses
You should never bet without having a budget in place, and you should always stick to this budget. You may have a bad day when your bets do not come in, but if you do not spend more than intended, this is not a problem.
However, if you chase your losses and exceed your budget, you are more likely to make poor decisions and lose significant amounts of money. This can lead to you experiencing financial issues.
Ignoring the Impact of Fight Location
The location of a contest can be as important as the fighters involved. Factors such as altitude, time zones, and home advantage can have a big impact on the result. So, even if a fighter has brought you good returns in the past, you should never bet on them without considering the fight’s location and the potential resulting impact.
You are never guaranteed success when betting on MMA. However, avoiding these common pitfalls improves your chances.