Category Archives: MMA Betting Picks

How to Spot a Golden Chance to Bet on UFC Rematches

The Significance of UFC Rematches

The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is known for its thrilling matches, and rematches are a significant part of this excitement. A rematch often arises when a fighter seeks to rectify a previous loss or to defend their title against a formidable opponent. Rematches provide an opportunity for fighters to settle scores, improve their skills, and prove their dominance. These matches often involve high stakes and intense emotion, leading to more competitive and unpredictable fights that attract fans and bettors alike.

Notable Previous UFC Rematches

The most significant previous UFC rematches and their results are:

  • Chuck Liddell vs. Randy Couture II, UFC 52: Liddell won by knockout in the second round, avenging his loss in their first fight.
  • Brock Lesnar vs. Frank Mir II, UFC 100: Lesnar won the rematch, unifying the heavyweight titles by defeating Mir via technical knockout in the second round.
  • Anderson Silva vs. Rich Franklin II, UFC 77: Silva won the rematch, defeating Franklin via technical knockout in the second round.
  • BJ Penn vs. Matt Hughes II, UFC 65: Penn won the rematch, defeating Hughes via technical knockout in the fourth round.
  • Ronda Rousey vs. Liz Carmouche II, UFC 157: Rousey won the rematch, submitting Carmouche via armbar in the third round.

Upcoming UFC Rematch

The next upcoming UFC rematch is between Curtis Blaydes and Tom Aspinall, scheduled for UFC 304 on July 27, 2024, at Co-Op Live in Manchester, England.

The UFC rematch between Curtis Blaydes and Tom Aspinall is scheduled for UFC 304 on July 27, 2024. Here are some key facts and statistics about the fight:

  1. First Fight: The two fighters previously faced each other at UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall on July 23, 2022. The fight was stopped due to injury after only 15 seconds when Aspinall suffered a knee injury.
  2. Current Records: Curtis Blaydes has a professional record of 16-3-0, while Tom Aspinall has a record of 14-3-0.
  3. Title Implications: The rematch is for the interim heavyweight title, which Aspinall currently holds.
  4. Blaydes’ Perspective: Blaydes believes the fight makes sense but is cautious about predicting the outcome, having learned not to get his hopes up about fights that should happen in the UFC.
  5. Aspinall’s View: Aspinall has expressed concerns about the limited upside of defending his interim title against Blaydes, stating that he’s “not that popular”.
  6. Blaydes’ Goals: Blaydes aims to face Aspinall in July with the interim belt on the line, considering it a significant opportunity for him. He also believes that Aspinall needs to face a heavyweight who poses a bigger threat in grappling, which has been his most glaring deficiency in his two UFC losses.
  7. Gane’s Role: Blaydes has ruled out a potential fight against Ciryl Gane, citing that Gane has previously turned down offers to face him twice and now lacks leverage. Blaydes suggests that Gane should face a heavyweight who poses a bigger threat in grappling, which he believes he can provide.
  8. Training and Preparation: Blaydes plans to use the time leading up to the fight to prepare for a five-round contest, which he considers a significant challenge.

These facts and statistics provide insight into the context and expectations surrounding the UFC rematch between Curtis Blaydes and Tom Aspinall.

Spotting Betting Opportunities

To spot a golden chance to bet on UFC rematches, consider the following factors:

  • Recent Performance: Fighters who have improved significantly since their previous match can be attractive for a rematch bet.
  • Motivation: Fighters seeking revenge or looking to prove themselves against a formidable opponent can create an intense and competitive fight.
  • Odds: Keep an eye on the odds for the rematch, as they can shift based on the fighters’ performances and the outcome of discussions surrounding the fight.
  • Top Sites for MMA Betting: Websites that offer a wide range of MMA betting options, including rematches. These sites provide detailed statistics and analysis to help you make informed betting decisions.

By considering these factors and staying up-to-date with the latest UFC news and trends, you can increase your chances of spotting a golden chance to bet on UFC rematches.

The Science of Prediction: Utilizing Data and Statistics in UFC Betting

In sports betting, the Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) stands out for its dynamic and unpredictable nature. With its blend of athleticism and strategy, UFC events draw millions of viewers and bettors globally. Amidst this unpredictability lies a practice—the science of prediction. Through careful data analysis and statistics, bettors can make informed decisions, enhancing their chances of success in UFC betting.

Exploring the Landscape: Dynamics of UFC Betting

Understanding UFC betting requires navigating a unique landscape. Unlike team sports, where team dynamics and historical matchups often dictate outcomes, UFC betting centers on individual fighters and their distinct skill sets. This presents both challenges and opportunities for bettors seeking to gain an edge. Moreover, the global appeal of the UFC ensures a diverse range of fighting styles and strategies, further enriching the betting landscape. Factoring in the evolving regulatory landscape across different jurisdictions, the complexity of UFC betting becomes even more apparent. Thus, for those new to the sport, understanding how to bet on UFC adds another layer to this multifaceted environment.

Data’s Role in UFC Betting

Data serves as the backbone of informed decision-making in UFC betting; from fighter statistics to historical performance metrics, an abundance of information is available for analysis. Relevant data points include win-loss records, fighting styles, striking accuracy, takedown defense and submission skills. Additionally, emerging technologies such as biometric data and performance analytics offer deeper insights into fighter conditioning and recovery patterns. Incorporating sentiment analysis from fan forums and social media platforms further enriches the data landscape, providing nuanced insights into public perceptions and potential market movements.

Statistical Analysis: Revealing Patterns and Trends

At the core of predictive modeling in UFC betting lies statistical analysis: scrutinizing historical data and identifying patterns and trends, bettors gain valuable insights into fighter performance and potential outcomes. Advanced statistical techniques, such as regression analysis and machine learning algorithms, further refine predictive accuracy by uncovering hidden relationships within the data. Moreover, incorporating situational analysis, such as venue effects and crowd dynamics, enhances the predictive power of statistical models. Looking ahead, advancements in natural language processing could enable deeper analysis of fighter interviews and press conferences, providing additional contextual information for more accurate predictions.

Considerations Beyond Numbers

While data and statistics offer a solid foundation, other factors influence fight outcomes. Intangible elements like fighter motivation, injury status, training camp dynamics and stylistic matchups also play critical roles. By integrating qualitative insights with quantitative analysis, bettors develop a more holistic understanding of each fight’s dynamics. Additionally, social media sentiment analysis and expert opinions provide valuable inputs for assessing the psychological aspects of fighters leading up to a match. Lastly, geopolitical events and cultural factors can influence fighter performance, adding another layer of complexity to the analysis.

Managing Uncertainty: Risk Mitigation Strategies

Uncertainty is inherent in sports betting, necessitating effective risk management strategies. Despite meticulous research, unforeseen circumstances or upsets can occur. Diversifying bets across multiple fights, employing hedging techniques and maintaining realistic expectations regarding outcomes are essential for long-term success. Furthermore, leveraging options contracts and betting exchanges facilitates dynamic risk-hedging strategies to mitigate losses in volatile markets. Additionally, incorporating probabilistic risk assessment models can help quantify and manage uncertainty more effectively, enabling bettors to make more informed decisions in unpredictable environments.

The Evolution of UFC Betting: Trends and Innovations

Technological advancements continuously shape UFC betting; online platforms, data-driven analytics tools and live betting markets have revolutionized the industry. Real-time data streams enable bettors to adjust strategies during events, enhancing flexibility and adaptability. Moreover, blockchain technology holds the potential to enhance transparency and security in betting transactions, ensuring fair play and trust among participants. Social media integration has also amplified fan engagement, fostering a vibrant community around UFC betting. Looking forward, advancements in artificial intelligence and machine learning may lead to more personalized betting experiences, tailoring recommendations and strategies to individual preferences. 

Future Outlook: Advancements in Precision

The future of UFC betting holds promise for further innovation and refinement. Continued advancements in data collection, predictive modeling and computational capabilities will enhance precision and accuracy. Collaboration among statisticians, sports analysts and betting professionals may yield novel strategies for gaining an edge in UFC betting. Furthermore, integrating virtual reality simulations and augmented reality interfaces could provide immersive experiences for bettors, enabling them to visualize fight scenarios and make more informed decisions. Meanwhile, regulatory developments and industry standards will play a crucial role in shaping the future landscape of UFC betting, ensuring fair and transparent practices. 

The Most Controversial Fighters in MMA History

MMA is brim-full with enough excitement to keep supporters happy and returning for more. It’s forever intense, with competitors showing their athleticism and skillful fighting ability within the Octagon at every event. 

Several MMA fighters have sparked discussions and debates between fans, pundits, and sports bettors with their actions, polarizing behavior, and statements beyond the confines of the Octagon, though. Of course, these exploits create their fair share of controversy, adding to the sport’s popularity and raising the stakes for upcoming matches involving these divisive fighters. 

The publicity generated by these controversial antics and drama encourages more wagering on mouthwatering encounters as bettors consider how the off-site activity will affect the results within the cage. As a result, an overseas gambling guide like Top Offshore Sportsbooks becomes more valuable, helping punters find the best odds and betting markets to back their MMA favorites.

Besides the gambling elements, the superstars themselves develop love-hate relationships with supporters as they bid to grow their reputations through the strength of public perception. Fans flock to arenas to witness whether a fighter’s dominance in media circles can transition into a similar performance within the Octagon’s confines. 

Let’s look at some of the most controversial fighters in MMA history and how their antics beyond the arena have helped forge successful careers and raise them to the pinnacle of this ever-growing sector of sports entertainment.

Jon Jones

MMA fans regard Jones as one of the greatest fighters in history, but controversy has constantly marred his career. The current UFC Heavyweight Champion’s dominance inside the Octagon is unquestionable, with his eight consecutive title defenses in the UFC Light Heavyweight division an MMA record.  

Jones’ legacy has been tarnished, however, by legal troubles, multiple failed drug tests, and suspensions. From a hit-and-run incident to the use of steroids, his outside-the-cage behavior has sometimes overshadowed his undeniable talent. While many acknowledge his fighting prowess, others believe Jon Jones has indelibly stained his reputation with his repeated transgressions.

Cris Cyborg

Brazilian-American Cris Cyborg’s reputation as a dominant female force within the MMA remains intact. The current Bellator Women’s Featherweight Champion has held her title since January 2020 and is a previous UFC, Strikeforce, and Invicta FC World Featherweight Champion. 

However, Cyborg, born Cristiane Venâncio, has had a controversial MMA career, where issues of using performance-enhancing drugs have been prevalent. She has tested positive for banned substances in the past, resulting in suspensions and constant questions about the integrity of her victories. Cris Cyborg remains an enigma inside the cage, but her past divides the opinion within the MMA community.

Ronda Rousey

Rousey was one of the pioneers of women’s MMA, revolutionizing the sport and helping to catapult it into the mainstream. She was the first American woman to win an Olympic judo medal with her 2008 Beijing bronze. Rousey was the UFC’s first Women’s Bantamweight Champion and the first female inducted into the UFC Hall of Fame.

Rousey, renowned for her brash demeanor and controversial statements outside the arena, often rubbed people the wrong way, resulting in several feuds and controversies inside and outside the Octagon. From heated rivalries with other fighters to polarizing comments about transgender athletes, most notably Fallon Fox, and allegations of domestic violence, Ronda Rousey’s MMA impact extends beyond athletic achievement.

Tito Ortiz

Ortiz, known as “The Huntington Beach Bad Boy,” is a UFC Hall of Famer and once UFC Light Heavyweight Champion who defended his title five times. He was one of MMA’s most polarizing figures in MMA during his prime, with his rudeness and theatrical antics meaning he was both loved and loathed by fans. 

Ortiz was 2006’s biggest pay-per-view draw for his fights with Chuck Liddell, Forrest Griffin, and Ken Shamrock.

Ortiz’s bitter rivalry with Liddell and Shamrock became the stuff of legends and culminated in six highly anticipated fights that captured the imagination of worldwide MMA fans. He was involved in a public feud with UFC president Dana White and was found guilty of a DUI charge. With the media also highlighting his penchant for high-stakes gambling, Tito Ortiz’s tumultuous personal life often overshadowed his MMA accomplishments.

Angela Magaña

Magaña was notorious in the MMA world, not for her fighting skills, but for her public antics and controversial behavior, often on social media. She had an underwhelming 11-10-0 MMA career record, with her crowning achievement being her unsuccessful attempt at winning the XFC Strawweight Championship.

Magaña was best known for her online and offline confrontational attitude and provocative statements throughout her career. Self-dubbed “Your Majesty,” she called MMA supporters “peasants” and engaged in Twitter feuds with fellow fighters while posting provocative pictures online. While Angela Magaña never achieved significant success inside the cage, she became a lightning rod for criticism and debate among MMA fans through her polarizing persona.

Nick Diaz

Diaz was the Strikeforce Welterweight Champion, defending his title for a record three times while competing unsuccessfully for the UFC Welterweight Championship on two occasions. Along with his younger brother, Nate, he grew his reputation more through his antics outside the Octagon than during his relatively successful one within the cage.

With a no-nonsense attitude and unfiltered trash-talking ability, Diaz built a reputation as a fan favorite and anti-establishment figure within MMA circles. From post-fight brawls, often with Nate at his side, to failed drug tests and run-ins with governing bodies, Nick Diaz got involved in several controversies throughout his career. Despite these, he maintained a loyal fanbase dedicated to supporting him through thick and thin.

Conor McGregor

No discussion of controversial MMA fighters would be complete without McGregor’s inclusion. The cocksure Irishman took the MMA world by storm with his exceptional fighting skills, becoming the first fighter to hold UFC championships in two weight classes concurrently. 

Despite his prowess in the Octagon, the former UFC Featherweight and Lightweight Champion’s larger-than-life personality outside the cage likely achieved him more public acclaim. The world’s highest-paid athlete in 2021, according to Forbes, was a trash-talking expert with a penchant for controversy, which propelled him to superstardom. 

In 2018, McGregor and around 20 accomplices attacked a bus carrying fellow fighter Khabib Nurmagomedov, culminating in one of several legal troubles he endured outside the Octagon. Conor McGregor’s off-the-cuff behavior has often overshadowed his in-cage achievements – despite his undeniable talent within the Octagon, his controversial nature has alienated him from many MMA fans and critics alike.

Final Thoughts

Whether it’s Conor McGregor’s arrogant persona or Ronda Rousey’s outspoken nature, controversial MMA fighters have left an indelible mark on the sport, for better or worse. In most cases, their talent and accomplishments within the Octagon are undeniable, but their actions and behavior outside the cage have often overshadowed these. 

As MMA evolves in its art and popularity, new polarizing figures will emerge to further add to the sport’s colorful tapestry of characters and controversies.

From Walkouts to Wagers: How to Bet on MMA Like a Veteran

Do you enjoy mixed martial arts (MMA) and want to take your passion to the next level? Betting on MMA fights can add a new level of excitement to watching your favorite fighters enter the cage. To increase your chances of success in MMA betting, you should approach it strategically. In this guide, we’ll look at the key factors for successful MMA betting and offer advice on how to analyze fighters and matchups, navigate betting markets, manage risks and bankroll, and stay up to date on the latest MMA trends and news.

For MMA enthusiasts in Germany looking to delve into the world of betting, exploring No deposit bonuses in Germany can be a rewarding starting point. These bonuses provide a risk-free opportunity to place bets without having to deposit any funds up front, making it an excellent way to experiment with different betting strategies and become acquainted with the MMA betting markets. With the knowledge gained from this guide and the potential benefits of no-deposit bonuses, you’ll be ready to bet on MMA like a seasoned veteran.

Understanding the MMA Landscape

Before getting into MMA betting, you should have a thorough understanding of the sport’s landscape. While the UFC is the world’s premier organization, other promotions such as Bellator, ONE Championship and PFL provide compelling matchups and top-tier athletes. Each promotion has distinct characteristics, ranging from the roster composition to the ruleset and fight styles featured. While the UFC is known for its combination of striking and grappling, organizations like ONE Championship may focus on a specific martial arts discipline, such as Muay Thai or Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. Familiarizing yourself with these distinctions allows for a more nuanced approach to MMA betting, allowing bettors to take advantage of opportunities across multiple promotions and events.

Essential Factors for Successful MMA Betting

Successful MMA betting requires careful consideration of the various factors that influence fight results. Beyond simply evaluating a fighter’s skill set, it’s critical to consider nuanced factors like fighting style, physical characteristics, experience level and recent performances. Understanding a fighter’s striking versus grappling proficiency, for example, can shed light on how they approach various matchups. Furthermore, contextual factors such as weight class, fighting venue, injuries and external distractions can all have a significant impact on performance and, as a result, betting odds. Bettors who conduct meticulous research and analysis can gain a more nuanced understanding of each fighter’s strengths and weaknesses, allowing them to make better betting decisions.

Analyzing Fighters and Matchups

Effective analysis of fighters and matchups is the foundation of successful MMA betting. This entails a thorough assessment of each fighter’s skill set, including striking, grappling and defensive abilities. In addition, analyzing past performances and head-to-head matchups can provide useful information about potential outcomes. For example, studying a fighter’s fight history can reveal patterns in their performance under various conditions, such as competing in specific weight classes or against opponents with similar styles. Moreover, taking into account intangible factors such as psychological mindset and pre-fight preparations can provide additional context when evaluating matchups. By combining these different elements, bettors can gain a more nuanced understanding of each fighter’s chances in a given matchup, allowing them to make better predictions.

Navigating the MMA Betting Markets

MMA betting encompasses a wide range of betting markets, each with its complexities and opportunities. Moneyline bets, for example, simply pick the winner of a fight, whereas over/under bets predict the total duration of a fight or the number of rounds it will last. Prop bets allow bettors to wager on specific aspects of a fight, such as the method of victory or whether the fight will go to a decision. Parlay bets, on the other hand, combine multiple bets into a single wager, resulting in potentially higher payouts but also increased risk. Understanding the mechanics and nuances of each betting market allows bettors to tailor their betting strategies to their preferences and risk tolerance, maximizing potential returns.

Managing Risks and Bankroll

Effective bankroll management is critical for long-term success in MMA betting. Setting clear betting strategies and strict wager limits can help mitigate the inherent risks of gambling. Disciplined approaches, such as flat betting, which places consistent wager amounts on each bet, or proportional betting, which adjusts wagers based on the perceived value of each bet, can assist bettors in avoiding impulsive decisions and maintaining a long-term betting strategy. Additionally, maintaining a diverse betting portfolio and avoiding “chasing losses” by doubling down on unsuccessful bets are critical principles for risk management and long-term bankroll preservation. Bettors who prioritize responsible betting practices can protect themselves from costly losses and position themselves for long-term success in MMA betting.

Staying Informed: Keeping Up with MMA Trends and News

Staying up to date on the latest trends and developments in the MMA world is critical for making informed betting decisions. Monitoring fighter news, injury updates, training camp reports and weigh-in results provides useful information about potential factors influencing fight outcomes. Using resources such as MMA news outlets, podcasts and social media platforms enables bettors to stay ahead of the competition and capitalize on information asymmetries in the betting markets. Bettors can make more accurate predictions and increase their chances of profiting from MMA betting by staying on top of the ever-changing landscape.

Understanding the MMA landscape, analyzing fighters and matchups, navigating the betting markets, managing risks and bankroll and staying up to date on the latest trends and news will help you bet like a pro and increase your chances of success. So, the next time you watch a live MMA event, consider placing a bet to add an extra layer of excitement to the experience.

UFC Fighters To Watch In 2017 (Part 2)

I asked anyone on the site if they wanted to contribute their own thoughts in terms of fighters to watch this year. Response was thoroughly underwhelming but never mind! 🙂 One person who put a lot of effort into their list was MMA Prophet, so here is his full email. At the end I’ll also include one other good reply I got.

It’s no surprise that MMA Prophet is currently 2nd top in terms of sales on the site. When you put effort in like this into a writeup, people appreciate that. Follow him and buy his picks! 🙂

Note: he sent me this on 8th January.


MMA Prophet
79.19 units profit, 29% ROI

Ranked fighters who will push on to the top of the division:

Flyweight

Ray Borg: Young/Talented Grappler who made the transition to Jackson Wink MMA. The sky is the limit for him and he has all the time in the world to get there at only 23 years of age. He also just thrashed Smolka. Once he gets his striking to that next level he will be a feared top-level contender.

Featherweight

Mirsad Bektic: He’s a killer with great wrestling, KO power and the skills to submit his opponents. He is undefeated and that’s for a reason. He also trains with American Top Team and the sky is truly the limit for him. Can’t wait to see what he can do.

Welterweight

Jorge Masvidal: One of the most undervalued ranked fighters to ever grace the octagon. He doesn’t really get finished and when he loses it’s a really competitive match up and arguable the fight could go either way. The guy is super well rounded and trains with killers at American Top Team. One of his main training partners is Colby Covington as well and if that wrestling knowledge and grit rubs off in any way on Jorge it makes him an even more lethal threat. I predict he beats Cerrone pretty decisively and steals Cowboys thunder. Cerrone doesn’t respond well to pressure and I’m sure Masvidal will bring the heat. He will be top 5 at the very least.

2nd picks

Lorenz Larkin: Phenomenal striker, I hope he stays in the UFC but a match up like him vs Gunnar Nelson could be interesting to see who is more deserving to ascend. Grappler vs striker, will Gunnar be able to out power Larkin and take him to the mat? I would love to see this matchup

Gunnar Nelson: Great grappler, improving striking, if he can get opponents to the mat it’s over (Besides Maia 😉 ).

Light Heavyweight

Misha Circunov: Amazing grappler with ever improving takedowns and striking. His performances have been extremely dominant and in 2 fights I think we could see him easily ranked #3. He has a good fight IQ, is measured and finds ways to win. *Also* He picked Grab and Nunes to win their last match ups, this may be irrelevant but he understands what people bring to the table and I like that.

Heavyweight: 

Francis Ngannou: He’s not human. He’s at a level where his sheer power can overcome skills his opponent poses. He has great stand up, he has shown he can submit people and he’s just an all round finisher. Next year he should break top 5 and maybe even fight for the belt. This is the kind of guy that could become a huge draw because of his physical attributes (like an Arnold Schwarzenegger) and UFC matchmaking should give him some good match ups to get to the top.

Women’s Strawweight

Jessica Andrade: A powerful tank of a girl with lethal standup. When she hits girls they don’t know what to do, much like an Amanda Nunes. Since moving down to strawweight it seems as though the sky is the limit for her. With her power as well it makes it easy for her to outwrestle opponents and make them pay with vicious ground and pound.

Michelle Waterson: Waterson is an extremely skilled striker and grappler who trains with an amazing team at Jackson Wink MMA. I feel like Waterson can make a big run for the strawweight belt but if she’s paired up with Andrade it would be a tough matchup for her. Waterson may out skill Andrade in kicks and BJJ but when it comes to boxing and wrestling I’m giving the edge to Andrade and that could be the difference. I see them both being top 5 or top 3 in the near future.

Just outside the rankings who will push into the rankings:

Heavyweight

Curtis Blaydes: Great wrestling, improving striking, and a big powerful heavyweight. His only loss is to Francis Ngannou who’s one of my favourite ranked fighters to break into the top 5 for the HW division.

Light Heavyweight

Jarrod Cannonier: Since his move from heavyweight to light heavyweight he has looked really sharp and has defeated top a prospect in Ion Cutelaba who’s only loss was to my top prospect Misha Circunov. At Heavyweight he gave Cyril Asker his first loss by KO and that dudes head is ginormous, which is usually indicative of a grant chin. His chin is good but that shot Cannonier delivered was something else. Cannonier has crisp powerful strikes, decent wrestling and positional control and above all he doesn’t like to take damage. He’s got a big test ahead of him taking on Glover Teixeira who is ranked #3, if Cannonier finds a way to beat his relatively chinny opponent he will find himself ranked just like that. Not to mention the light heavyweight division is pretty shallow so it shouldn’t be an issue.

Welterweight

Santiago Ponzinibbio: Lethal striker with great accuracy and takedown defense. To tell you the truth I’m shocked that he isn’t ranked yet. He is on a 3 fight win streak and needs to dispatch of Nordine Taleb to prove he’s a real contender in that stacked division of killers. Nordine is a much stiffer striker, has fought worse competition and has had some close calls where Santiago has lost to great people and beat some killers as well. We will definitely see him ranked soon.

Flyweight

Ben Nguyen: Lethal striker with pinpoint accuracy, he was on a tear until Smolka derailed him with outstanding grappling and ground and pound in the scrambles. That was a mistake from a young fighter but since then he has hired a mental coach and had a dominant victory over Geane Herrera who had fought the better competition out of the teo. If he fights Smolka again I would easily pick Ben to win and he should keep the fight standing or scramble to his feet. If that fight does happen they basically swap ranks and my prophecy comes into fruition.

Lightweight

Will Brooks: He’s a dominant wrestler with solid striking and he trains with the killers at American Top Team. He suffered his first loss in 3 years recently to Alex Oliveira who missed weight by 10 lbs and cracked Brooks’ rib during the fight. Will was arguably winning the grappling exchanges, even with a 10 lb deficit but the pain from his rib injury proved to be too much. All that aside he was a dominant champion in balloter and I see him busting into the rankings in the UFC real soon.

Newbies who looks like prospects:

 Flyweight

Jenel Lausa: Excellent technical Muay Thai striker with a decent enough ground game to defend and even maintain top pressure. He has some serious KO power for the weight class and he’s also shown he can be measured and do what it takes to win a 3 rounder against someone who stricktly wants to take him down.

Featherweight

Shane Burgos: He trains with the likes of Jimmie Rivera and has showed he can hang with UFC fighters as well. Solid submission and smart technical stand up. Room for improvement but I see him climbing the ranks and becoming a contender.

Lightweight

Alex Volkanovski: Talented all round fighter who is a proven finisher. He was a dominant champion in another organization and his debut in the Octagon was long overdue.

Marc Diakese: He has looked great in his last two performances. What he lacks in striking he makes up for in powerful grappling capabilities. He shows everything a coach would want in a fighter to be able to mold them into an even more lethal weapon.

Drakkar Klose: His octagon debut is coming up at UFC Phoenix and it should be a dominant performance from the footage I’ve seen. He’s composed, sharp and has some serious power.

Welterweight

Abdul Razak Alhassan: KO wizard. None of his fights have made it past the 2-minute mark and he’s in it to win it. Looks like a physical specimen so with the right team and coaching the sky is the limit for young Abdul.

Middleweight

Andrew Sanchez: He’s shown he is a great grappler and does what’s necessary to control and win the fight. In his last fight he showed off a bit of his striking and beat a legit UFC vet in Trevor Smith who was on a 2 fight win streak. With the right training the sky is the limit.

Gerald Meerschaert: Another long overdue arrival into the UFC with a record of 25 and 8 (only 2 of those wins going the distance) and with past victories over the likes of Sam Alvey and Joe Gigliotti. He’s on a 6 fight win streak and has never been knocked out. He showed great grappling and submission skills against Gigliotti and should have a decent future in the UFC with some bumps along the way.

Heavyweight

Justin Ledet: He’s shown great work in the Octagon so far, utilizing his jab and even showing of some of his underrated BJJ. The guy is small for the heavy weight division but he still packs a punch and makes up for it with agility and slick boxing technique. Even if he loses or makes the drop to light heavyweight I see a cool career ahead of him. Very entertaining fighter.

People I think will fade away and we should bet against:

Michael Bisping: (If he ever fights a top 4 Middleweight again lol) he’s getting old and taken a lot of damage. He has children and other career opportunities as well. When Michael loses again he will most likely retire or only come back for super fights if the money is right.

Johnny Hendricks: Severe decline/USADA.

Anthony Pettis: Severe decline and head seems to be elsewhere.

Thiago Santos: Incredibly chinny with bad fight IQ.

Mike Pyle: Incredibly chinny and old.

Gian Villante: Terrible fight IQ and cardio, he doesn’t seem like he want this as much as his opponents.

Raphael Natal: Terrible fight IQ, old, and regressing.

Cole Miller: Head is no longer in the game.

Mid-level career resurgence:

Tim Elliot: We saw his performance against Mighty Mouse, giving him one of his most difficult tests to date. Tim Elliot may never become champ but he does have all the tools and skills to become a top contender.

Demian Maia: For obvious reasons, he’s already going through it technically.

Junior Dos Santos: They have put a really easy fight in front of him with Stephan Struve and Junior is deadly to anyone in the Heavyweight division.

Eddie Wineland: This is a maybe and it really is dependent on the match ups they give him. He has the potential to win his next 2 but I don’t see him gunning for that belt again given his poor defensive striking style. All that said I think he can win one or two more depending on the matchup.


The following is from Jonathan Murray
9.52 units profit, 22% ROI.

To Follow:
Jessica Andrade: I believe she’s going to have a breakthrough year this year. I would go as far as to say that she will be the first fighter to defeat Joanna champion should she get the opportunity.

Excellent boxing mixed with strong grappling. Having been a relatively competitive undersized 135lb’er. She’s moved on in leaps and bounds since comfortably getting to 115lbs. We know she’s durable as hell and willing to take some contact to improve her position.

I think she may be a slightly more polished version of Claudia Gadelha in the offensive grappling area. She also packs enough power and volume to potentially disrupt JJ’s rhythm.

I think she’s a great prospect at 25 and has many good years ahead of her.

To Fade:
James Gallagher
John Kavanagh’s second coming of Conor. He’s not. Not even close. I believe there’s much more hype than substance to Gallagher and personally can see him evaporating into lower level MMA shows than Bellator.

He’s a long way from the finished article and for all the bravado and talk about his ground game, he struggles to apply it against low-mid tier opposition. He’s not a great striker and has almost a one dimensional game.

He might have McGregor’s swagger and self confidence, but it’s as misplaced as claims that Cathal Pendred could be a great striker because he trained in the same gym as McGregor.

Gallagher seems to have concentrated more on marketing than the thing that will actually matter. Performance. For that reason I’m waiting on him to get some proper opposition so I can bet against him. This one is all about timing I think.

UFC Fighters to Watch in 2017

I was a little unsure whether to post this blog because it kinda pisses on itself… If I go telling people who I think are good fighters (and particularly underrated fighters), then the lines probably aren’t going to be as good. In the end I thought there are enough people doing this that this will get lost in the fog and really, I’m not that important 😛

Breaking through level 1
People already in the top 15 UFC fighter rankings, who I expect to make a push for the top of the division.

Jessica Andrade USADA is the only thing that bothers me about this pick. That aside, I think she’ll get a title shot this year and I would not be the least bit surprised if Andrade absolutely demolishes Joanna Jedrzejczyk. I think she would have smashed Moroz, so hopefully they make that matchup again.
Ranked at #5 in the official UFC rankings. MMA Junkie only have her at #11 which is fucking ridiculous considering they have Alexa Grasso at #6.
Big power, impressive wrestling, a really solid gas tank and a good chin. She doesn’t really look any different to how she looked at 135lbs and she was contending with the top of the tree there. Much, much bigger girls like Pennington, who is a very good clinch fighter and an absolute grinder, who has had her breakout year this year.
Joanna has been rocked by people with a LOT less power than Andrade. Given her good gas tank, I find it hard to envisage JJ not getting smacked around at some point and JJ does not have power to deter the Andrade attacks. So that’s basically given away what I presume will be one of my picks at some point late in the year.
I just finished listening to The MMA Hour with Ariel Helwani giving out his end of year awards and predicting his end of year award winners for 2017 – Both he and his co-host predicted JJ as female fighter of 2017. I’m going with Andrade for mine (assuming she doesn’t get popped), so we shall see.
Misha Cirkunov A bit of a tricky one because it depends who he is matched up against. However, in an aging division, he’s someone I see making continued improvements and picking off a couple of the guys above him. If he gets matched up against Bader then possibly he gets wrestle-fucked but I don’t think that’s a bad matchup due to Bader’s chin. Gus looked poor in his last fight, OSP I think is a poor and massively overrated fighter, Manuwa would certainly test his chin but I’d favour Misha, Rua is pretty much done, Rumble would be an interesting fight but basically you get through the first round and a half and Rumble is there for the taking. I don’t think we’re looking at a title shot for Misha this year but a couple of competitive but impressive wins seems most likely.
This writeup could be written for Corey Anderson. The reason I haven’t gone for him is because he does look like he has a duff chin. Cirkunov looks like he has a good chin to me. His weakness is possibly his cardio, so I would want to see him perform well in a R3 before I get really confident but skills wise I think he’s legit.

Breaking through level 2
The following fighters are ranked outside the top 15 in their division but I believe will have a good year and stand a good chance of moving into that top 15.

Colby Covington and Kamaru Usman These two could be pretty interchangeable in terms of a writeup.  They would both merk a lot of guys in the top 15 and it’s a bit ridiculous that they’re not ranked already. I wouldn’t bet anyone outside of Woodley against either of them. I would definitely back them both to beat several of the top 15, though I’m not gunna say who in case those matchups get made 🙂
The knock on Covington was his standup. I actually think his standup has been pretty decent for a while (back as far as the Pyle fight) and people started to realise that a bit more in his last fight. My main problem with him is the stuff he says… he says a lot of dumb shit and that doesn’t fill me with much confidence in terms of decision making at the highest level.
Usman seems more level headed but perhaps a little less of a threat to be a finisher more long term. Again, the opportunity for prop betting the decision is there, particularly for Usman.
Justin Scoggins He lost his last fight against Munhoz but the guy is legit and that was a terrible matchup. His main problem is his lack of power but that also opens up opportunities for prop betting – Scoggins by unanimous decision.
Kevin Lee Dude is just good at stuff…. He’s good at taking you down and beating you up and he’s good enough at striking to hang with most people.
Rustam Khabilov …. by decision. Will probably wrestle-hump his way into the bottom of the top 15 where he’ll find his natural level but he’s just there to bet on by decision every time.
Santiago Ponzinibbio I’d kinda forgotten this guy existed till I had a look through the fightmatrix rankings site to see if I’d missed anyone. He’s older than I thought he was but still just about young enough to be making improvements as a semi-prospect. I would take him to beat at least 1/3 of the current top 15 at welterweight, which I think is probably the most inaccurate list in terms of actual talent at the weight.
Nordine Taleb He got a surprise KO in his last fight and if he’s added power to his game, that’s a massive bonus. A grinder in the mould of Covington but with a lower tempo… However, as very much an under the radar guy, it’s not so much I think he’s going to end up being a top 15 guy, I just think he’s going to offer value depending on the matchup.
Vicente Luque It’s possible that the impressive KOs will negate any value here. However, adding that power is something that has piqued my interest. At 25 he’s an interesting age. He’s showed poor defensive wrestling on TUF and in his loss to Michael Graves but I think that’s a hole he can fill in. I wouldn’t bet him against any dominant wrestler until we see for sure though.

Newbies
Could easily end up top 15 but more likely will just make a decent impression. Less fights and more question marks than the fighters above.

Tatiana Suarez She absolutely carved up the (decent level of) competition on TUF and in the finale. Impressive offensive grappling should be enough to pick off a lot of competition in this division. I’d have to remind myself of her standup, so that’s a possible hole.
Justin Ledet Another who could have gone in the breakthrough category. In a weak division we could easily see him zoom into the top 15 in one or two more fights. Very good striking and very good jiu jitsu but we’re yet to see his wrestling. There are a lot of big lumps at heavyweight so he could get wrestle-humped to a decision loss. He also doesn’t appear to have massive power. If he can make 205 then I’d say that was a better fit and he could be kind of like an upgraded Magnus Cedenblad. At 265lb I think the options are probably limited by his size but he’s someone I’ll be keeping an eye on.
Tyson Pedro Very little to go off but what he have seen looked impressive. A dominant grappler with power.
Matthew Lopez At this weight you kinda hit a brick wall in the top 5-8 fighters but this guy has a good all round game. He’s got nice scrambles and generally just a good, scrappy, fighter’s instinct.
Shane Burgos a Lando Vanatta-ish style perhaps in his debut (from recollection). Not the sort of fighter I like betting on because he’s a risk taker but he looked way ahead of the curve in terms of a debut fighter.

Quick Mentions & Turnarounds
Zak Cummings I think he’ll run the table on this vets season of TUF. I’m not sure he’ll do much beyond that but a season of TUF is worth a mention.
Lauren Murphy In a threadbare division, she’s been on the wrong end of some iffy decision and as such will be under-valued.
Nina Ansaroff It will be very interesting to see how she gets on this next event. Competitive fights against two good fighters in Lima and Kish but ultimately she showed tactical weakness in staying on bottom too long. She’s had a long layoff now and if she can display better takedown defense and a more urgent desire to scramble and escape, she could pick off 2 or 3 top 20 fighters.

Recapping UFC 186 – Johnson vs. Horiguchi betting analysis

In terms of the Wisdom of Crowds picks, after two negative events, we’re back in the positive, thanks to a 7 fold parlay coming off at +540.  This event was full of favorite winners. 11 of 12 fights in fact; the most since we started our system, making a parlay win all the more likely.

On individual fights we went 10-2 on predictions but unfortunately the big one didn’t come off. For the first time in a few events the system spat out a big bet on an underdog (Chris Clements). I had personally identified him as a live underdog, so I tentatively OK with the pick despite thinking that Taleb would more than likely win a decision. As it happens, that’s exactly what did happen and we took a big hit of -13.25 units from that fight. Getting another 9 fights right on bets only managed to claw half of that back and it was left to the parlay to save the day.

So how could we improve things?

– The system works on perceived value and doesn’t care whether something is high risk or not. That is both a strength and a weakness. Normally people would put a small bet on Clements if they thought he’d win…. but we put a whopping great bet on. In reality, when it’s a pickem fight with a lot better odds than pickem, that’s the right thing to do. Sometimes you’ll lose big but sometimes you’ll win REALLY big.

– WIth regards Clements vs Taleb in particular, I had made some changes to the equation that probably wouldn’t have seen us bet on Chris Clements but when I ran them, it absolutely decimated our profits from past events. I am confident it would be a better overall equation but that’s just my personal hunch and when the past results went from +240 to +100 units or something crazy like that, I felt it needed more data and just left the equations as they were for a bit longer.

A quick summary of my own predictions:

I personally went 3-0 on straight betting picks.

– Taleb would not win inside the distance.
– Cote to win.
– Laprice to win.

Taleb vs Clements basically went exactly like I expected. If anything Clements looked a bit worse. Cote vs Riggs was more competitive than i expected, as was the Laprice vs Barberena fight. I have no idea why Laprice gassed like he did and did not see that coming at all. I could see him dropping down to 145lbs as I can only assume he was struggling with his larger opponent’s size advantage.

In parlays, I was going for a 5 fold. 4 fights to go the decision and Bec Rawlings on the next event. 3 of 4 fights went to a decision and unfortunately I did what I tell people never to do when it comes to MMA betting – I added a fight into the parlay based on other people’s opinions (Kaufman vs Davis). I know virtually nothing about these two but everyone was saying it would be a decision. Sigh. All mine came off, this one didn’t. Never mind, I won’t do it again! 🙂

More Picks for this weekend’s UFC186 – Johnson vs. Horiguchi

As well as betting picks, I’ll give my opinions on some extra fights and explain why I don’t want to bet on them:

Demetrious Johnson vs Kyoji Horiguchi
C.B. Dollaway vs Michael Bisping
Fabio Maldonado vs Quinton Jackson
John Makdessi vs Shane Campbell
Alexis Davis vs Sarah Kaufman

I have no particular opinion on the above fights that you won’t have heard elsewhere.

Thomas Almeida vs Yves Jabouin
So this guy’s the new UFC prodigy. Well, maybe so. However, he’s very hitable, specifically very jabable. I wouldn’t bet him personally at these odds. I’d wanna see how he deals with someone who just leg kicks the crap out of him first and basically just get a bit more “data”. I feel like Almeida does more than likely win but if I was in Yves’ corner I’d be asking him to work the front leg like there was no tomorrow and keep that lateral movement going (which is his natural style). Almeida is a little bit like a higher tempo, less flat footed Nick Diaz and I would like to see what happened if he got slowed down by those leg kicks. I think Jabouin’s output is a little too tentative here and he’s probably too chinny but with a perfect gameplan it could be a very close fight.

Joe Riggs vs Patrick Cote
I’m big on Cote in this fight and have placed a 11 unit bet on him at -180. These odds are way too good. Joe Riggs is done as far as I am concerned. Though Cote’s chin might not be what it used to be, it’s still really solid and I just see him as significantly better than Riggs everywhere.

Bryan Barberena vs Chad Laprise
You can check out my reasoning for an 11 unit bet on Laprice in the post below this one!

David Michaud vs Olivier Aubin-Mercier
Aubin-Mercier is a big favourite here but he definitely worries me and I wouldn’t bet it. He’s a rudimentary, single shot striker. He’s hitable. He fights at a fairly slow tempo. Michaud is no great shakes either but he looks like he hits hard and I would bet he’s a better wrestler than Aubin-Mercier. I see this being a super-scrappy/scrambly, close fight and I wouldn’t touch it with a barge pole when it comes to betting.

Chris Clements vs Nordine Taleb
Basically I think Nordine Taleb will not win inside the distance. You can get that at -171. However, you get better odds if you place the two bets separately on Chris Clements straight up (+226) and Nordine Taleb to win the decision (+171). I’m edging towards a Taleb Decision but I just don’t see the guy as a finisher. He has a good jab, perhaps some power but he does not commit to a finish. When he takes people down he’s more than happy to just sit in half guard and drop ponderous elbows. Chris Clements is a bulldoze fowards, winging looping punches striker with a lot of power. He telegraphs his shots but still lands. He does land a lot of kicks, which I think could work against Taleb. The guy’s tough as nails. He got tooled by Matt Riddle but Riddle is basically a polar opposite of Taleb in terms of aggression.

Jessica Rakoczy vs Valerie Letourneau
I saw another (very prominent but less successful than he makes out) tipster say these two were lacking in technique. My god. Rakoczy was an 8 time world boxing champion. Letourneau has extremely good technique. We haven’t seen anything of Letourneau on the ground in the UFC so I think this one’s impossible to call personally and nobody should be betting it… There are just soooo many unknowns. Age (Rakoczy is nearly 40), long layoffs, insufficient data, Letourneau seems to cut easily. Blurgh…. still, I do think it will be a good fight! If I was forced to pick I would maybe say Rakoczy was a better bet because she’s the underdog.

Aisling Daly vs Randa Markos
I would side with Markos here. This was one of my initial bets but I watched Daly vs Chambers yesterday and Daly beasted her and looked very slick on the ground, so I am not betting it. I’m pretty sure this will end up as a decision one way or the other but at -185 I don’t think it’s that worth betting.

UFC 186: Johnson vs. Horiguchi Betting Tips

I’ve decided to start offering my own personal betting tips on MMA and my first tip is Chad Laprice. You can get him at -296 or;

Inside the distance: +197
Wins by decision: +111

I’m very confident in him as a pick but can’t decide if he’s going to get the finish or not, so I’m just going to go with the big 11 units on him straight up.

Barberina is just not on his level BUT Laprice doesn’t appear to be a finisher at the highest level. Laprice had back control in his last fight a couple of times and couldn’t do anything with it. However, he seems to be an extremely intelligent fighter in terms of gameplanning, taking strikers down and keeping it standing with excellent takedown defense against the grappler, in his last two fights respectively.