Did you know that upsets are basically a myth in the world of March Madness? The top five ranked teams going into the postseason win basically 100% of championships. This, because by the time March comes around, every team has played dozens of games.

There’s tons of data. That information makes it easy for analysts to predict with reasonable accuracy what will happen in the playoffs. You can’t make a perfect bracket simply by picking the favorites but you can come surprisingly close.

MMA is different. For one thing, the data is more limited. A really good fighter might only have 20 matchups in their entire career.

Upsets happen about 33% of the time – just about as high as you can get while still calling it an upset. This adds an extra element of excitement for viewers. For bettors, it creates chaos. How do you avoid the hype and spot real MMA value?

How Are MMA Odds Determined

Despite the more limited data, MMA odds are still calculated as carefully as possible. No one is sitting at their computer thinking, “Boy, that guy sure looks big,” and taking it from there. Analysts will look at their previous performances.

Their current condition. Are they recovering from an injury? They will also try to compare the fighters’ strengths and weaknesses. This does involve a little bit of creativity. It’s easy enough to say, “I think Fighter X will have a hard time keeping up with Fighter Y’s speed.”

It might even be true. But what does it mean? How can we be sure that speed is the determining factor and not the fact that Fighter X hits like a freight train?

 Ultimately, it’s this factor that makes it so hard to say what will happen in a fight. You don’t know how two fighters will react to one another when they step up on the big night.

Additional factors like fighting style matchups, recent training camp reports, and weight cut difficulty can further complicate these predictions.

Even the most seasoned oddsmakers acknowledge the inherent unpredictability of combat sports, where a single well-placed strike can end a contest regardless of statistical advantages.

Looking Past The Hype:

In the weeks or even months leading up to a high-profile fight, there will be tons of hype. You’ll see analyst reports. You’ll get sportsbook odds. You’ll hear endless commentary.

Joe Rogan might weigh in. In other words–tons of noise, often saying six different things. How do you step back and just focus on what’s really in front of you?

It helps to look at multiple, conflicting opinions, and see how each analyst is making their case. Let’s say you find that 3 out of 5 analysts say Fighter X is a lock.

 However, as you read what they have said on the subject, you don’t find their reasoning very compelling. They fail to take into account Fighter Y’s recent training camp switch to a coach who specializes in the exact style needed to counter Fighter X’s primary weapons.

 They overlook how Fighter Y struggled in previous bouts mainly due to weight-cutting issues, which have been addressed with a new nutritionist.

The analysts are overly focused on Fighter X’s highlight reel knockouts without considering they came against opponents with completely different styles than Fighter Y. You pick Fighter Y as an “underdog.” And on the night of the big fight, you are proven right.

How Often Should You Bet The Underdog?

Don’t make it your mission to bet on every underdog. Remember, with that strategy, you will lose almost 70% of the time. The financial risk might even out–with your wins paying for your losses but: who wants to lose 70% of the time?

Take the odds seriously. Interrogate predictions. “Analyst X is saying this. Can I think of a reason why they are wrong?” If you can, it might be time to bet the underdog. If you can’t, stick with your favorite.

People take a very similar approach with the Kentucky Derby. Again, limited data. Also just a volatile sport. These races take only two minutes. A horse seeking greatness needs only to stick it out for that long to disrupt the odds.

Often, the Kentucky Derby winner is an underdog and the people who bet on that underdog get a nice payday in return. It’s the same basic principle for MMA. One good hit can end the match, regardless of the odds. Don’t be afraid to bet on the underdog.

The key is selective contrarianism – finding specific fights where the public perception or betting line doesn’t match your analysis.

Look for underdogs with specific stylistic advantages, fighters whose previous losses came under circumstances that no longer apply, or competitors who’ve shown dramatic improvement in recent training footage.

Remember that bookmakers set lines partly based on where they expect the public to bet, not just on actual fight probabilities. This creates opportunities for the sharp bettor who can separate hype from reality.