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The UFC has become one of the most exciting sports for betting, offering numerous ways to wager beyond just picking winners. Over the years, different betting styles have emerged, some proving to be far more profitable than others. Understanding these strategies can help bettors maximize their returns. From underdog betting to method-of-victory bets, history has shown that certain approaches consistently yield higher profits. This article explores the most profitable UFC betting styles, backed by historical trends and betting insights.
Underdog Betting: The High-Risk, High-Reward Approach
One of the most popular and profitable betting styles in UFC history is backing underdogs. Unlike other sports where favorites tend to dominate, MMA is unpredictable, with upsets happening frequently. Some of the most lucrative bets in UFC history have come from underdogs defying the odds. MMA is volatile, with small differences in skill level making a big impact on outcomes. Many underdogs have hidden advantages, such as a superior ground game or knockout power. Public perception often inflates odds for big-name fighters, creating value for bettors who do deeper research.
Matt Serra’s shocking TKO win over Georges St-Pierre at UFC 69 had odds of +850, meaning a $100 bet returned $850. Holly Holm’s head-kick knockout against Ronda Rousey at UFC 193 came with odds of around +900, delivering massive payouts. Julianna Peña’s submission win over Amanda Nunes at UFC 269 cashed in at approximately +700. Underdog betting requires patience and careful selection, but when executed correctly, it has proven to be one of the most profitable UFC betting strategies.
Because upsets like these happen so often in MMA, many bettors have historically backed the underdog and walked away with big winnings. Today, more bettors are exploring alternative sportsbooks, such as Bitcoin betting platforms, which gambling expert James Briscoe notes offer fast payouts, flexible and secure transactions, competitive odds, and unique bonuses across a variety of MMA betting markets such as moneyline betting, method of victory, round betting, and over/under rounds, which lets you bet on how long the fight will last. Underdog betting isn’t just about risk—it’s about spotting opportunities that others overlook. With careful research and the right strategy, those who back the right fighter at the right time can see massive returns.
Prop Bets: Predicting the Method of Victory
Instead of simply betting on who wins, another profitable strategy is betting on how a fighter will win—by knockout, submission, or decision. These prop bets offer higher odds compared to moneyline bets. Fighters often have predictable styles—some are knockout artists, while others rely on submissions. Historical data can help identify trends. For example, Francis Ngannou winning by KO was a near certainty in his prime. Higher payouts compared to moneyline bets; a fighter winning by KO/TKO at +300 offers better value than their -200 moneyline odds.
Conor McGregor’s first-round KO of Jose Aldo at UFC 194 was widely predicted, yet betting on McGregor by KO at +160 offered significantly higher profits than his moneyline odds, which ranged from -105 to -180. Khabib Nurmagomedov’s submission victory over Dustin Poirier at UFC 242 had +350 odds for a submission finish, paying more than a straight win bet, while his moneyline opened at -360 and closed around -455. Charles Oliveira’s submission wins over Michael Chandler and Justin Gaethje provided major payouts for bettors backing his grappling skills. Prop betting requires understanding a fighter’s tendencies and their opponent’s weaknesses, but it consistently offers strong returns.
Live Betting: Taking Advantage of Momentum Swings
Live betting has become one of the most profitable ways to bet on UFC fights. Unlike pre-fight bets, live betting allows you to place wagers as the fight unfolds, often at odds that shift dramatically. MMA fights can change in an instant and a fighter who looks dominant early may gas out or get caught by a single punch. You can assess in-fight factors like stamina, damage, and corner advice before placing a bet. Odds fluctuate heavily based on moment-to-moment action, sometimes presenting incredible value.
Alexander Volkanovski’s comeback win against Max Holloway at UFC 251 provided massive live betting value, as his odds spiked after a rough start. Leon Edwards’ head-kick knockout against Kamaru Usman at UFC 278 offered huge live odds after Usman dominated most of the fight. Derrick Lewis’ knockout victories, especially when trailing on the scorecards, have made live bettors a fortune. Live betting requires quick decision-making, but those who can recognize momentum shifts can secure major profits.
Live betting also rewards those who can recognize when a fighter is starting to slow down, even before the odds reflect it. Watching for subtle signs like labored breathing, a drop in striking output, or a corner’s frustration can help bettors make timely wagers. Since sportsbooks adjust odds in real-time, hesitation can mean missing out on valuable opportunities
Betting on Five-Round Fights Going the Distance
Main event fights and championship bouts are scheduled for five rounds instead of three, creating unique betting opportunities. Historically, betting on these fights to go the distance has been a profitable strategy. Many title fights feature elite fighters with strong conditioning and defensive skills, making finishes less common. Fighters are often more cautious in championship fights, reducing reckless exchanges that lead to knockouts. Betting on a fight to go the distance often provides better odds than betting on a specific fighter to win.
Israel Adesanya vs. Yoel Romero at UFC 248 went the full five rounds, despite many expecting a knockout. Kamaru Usman’s decision victories against Jorge Masvidal and Colby Covington provided consistent profits for those betting on the fight to go the distance. Volkanovski vs. Holloway fights have consistently gone to decision, making ‘fight goes the distance’ a strong bet. Jon Jones, known for his calculated fighting style, has won multiple title fights by decision, reinforcing this trend. Similarly, Stipe Miocic’s five-round battles with Daniel Cormier showcased how heavyweight championship fights can also favor decisions when evenly matched. While this strategy doesn’t work for every fight, championship bouts with high-level competitors often favor decision outcomes, making it a valuable betting style.
Fading Overhyped Fighters
Another profitable approach is betting against fighters who receive excessive hype but lack the skills to justify their odds. Public perception often inflates odds for popular fighters, creating value on the other side. Casual bettors often overvalue UFC stars, leading to inflated moneyline odds. Experienced bettors can spot holes in a fighter’s game, such as poor cardio, weak wrestling, or an untested chin. Backing less-hyped but more well-rounded fighters often results in better value.
Ronda Rousey’s losses to Holly Holm and Amanda Nunes were cases where hype outweighed skill. Sage Northcutt, despite his early marketing push, struggled against real competition, making him profitable. Sean O’Malley’s loss to Marlon Vera at UFC 252 was a clear example of a prospect being overvalued. Darren Till’s betting lines were often inflated due to his star power, yet he suffered multiple losses against grapplers who exploited his weak takedown defense.
Similarly, Greg Hardy, a former NFL player, was given favorable odds early in his career despite clear deficiencies in endurance and ground defense. Understanding the difference between legitimate prospects and market-driven hype allows bettors to make smarter wagers and avoid betting traps. Identifying overhyped fighters requires research, but fading them at the right time can lead to strong profits.
Conclusion
Profitable UFC betting is about finding value beyond simply picking winners. Underdog betting has produced some of the biggest payouts in history, while method-of-victory and live betting offer ways to capitalize on in-depth knowledge and in-fight momentum shifts. Five-round fights going the distance often present strong odds, and betting against overhyped fighters has historically been a winning strategy. By understanding these betting styles and researching trends, bettors can increase their chances of long-term success in UFC wagering.