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MMA Handicapper Stats: Mitch D

Mitch D (MDavies15)

MMA Betting Stats Summary

Overall Stats		Straight Fight Picks		Props		Parlays
Right	18 (35%)	Right	9 (36%)	Right	5 (33%)	Right	4 (36%)
Wrong	33 (65%)	Wrong	16 (64%)	Wrong	10 (67%)	Wrong	7 (64%)
Avg Odds	2.06	Avg Odds	1.97	Avg Odds	2.19	Avg Odds	2.11
Units Bet	140.0	Units Bet	68.0	Units Bet	39.5	Units Bet	32.5
Avg Bet	2.75	Avg Bet	2.72	Avg Bet	2.63	Avg Bet	2.95
Units Profit	-40.63	Units Profit	-18.49	Units Profit	-11.10	Units Profit	-11.05
ROI %	-29%	ROI %	-27%	ROI %	-28%	ROI %	-34%

Mitch D: Event by Event Predictions

The straight picks, parlays and props sections display Winnings / Bets (ROI%)

Date	Event	Bet	Won	ROI	Straight Picks	Props	Parlays
10th Apr '21	UFC FN	11	2.4	21%	2.9 / 5 (57%)	-0.5 / 6 (-8%)
9th Apr '21	Bellator 256	3	-3.0	-100%	-3.0 / 3 (-100%)
28th Mar '21	UFC 260	8.5	3.7	43%	2.1 / 5 (42%)	-1.5 / 1.5 (-100%)	3.1 / 2 (155%)
21st Mar '21	UFC Fight Night 188	9	3.6	40%	1.6 / 6 (27%)	2.0 / 3 (67%)
13th Mar '21	UFC Fight Night 187	4.5	-4.5	-100%	-4.5 / 4.5 (-100%)
6th Mar '21	UFC 259	10	-10.0	-100%	-7.5 / 7.5 (-100%)	-0.5 / 0.5 (-100%)	-2.0 / 2 (-100%)
28th Feb '21	UFC Fight Night 186	10.5	-6.5	-62%	0.5 / 3.5 (15%)	-3.0 / 3 (-100%)	-4.0 / 4 (-100%)
20th Feb '21	UFC Fight Night 185	11	-7.9	-71%	1.7 / 1.5 (110%)	-7.0 / 7 (-100%)	-2.5 / 2.5 (-100%)
14th Feb '21	UFC 258	8	1.3	16%	-1.0 / 1 (-100%)	-0.3 / 4.5 (-7%)	2.6 / 2.5 (103%)
6th Feb '21	UFC FN	10	-3.6	-36%	-0.6 / 7 (-8%)	-1.0 / 1 (-100%)	-2.0 / 2 (-100%)
24th Jan '21	UFC 257	11	6.2	56%	3.1 / 7 (45%)		3.0 / 4 (76%)
20th Jan '21	UFC on ESPN 20	9	-5.8	-64%	1.7 / 1.5 (115%)	-3.5 / 3.5 (-100%)	-4.0 / 4 (-100%)
16th Jan '21	UFC FN	8.5	-4.3	-50%	-1.5 / 1.5 (-100%)	-2.0 / 2 (-100%)	-0.8 / 5 (-15%)
19th Dec '20	UFC Vegas 17	9	-4.0	-44%	-6.5 / 6.5 (-100%)	2.5 / 2.5 (100%)
13th Dec '20	UFC 256	15.5	-6.8	-44%	-6.0 / 6 (-100%)	3.7 / 5 (74%)	-4.5 / 4.5 (-100%)
11th Dec '20	Bellator 254	1.5	-1.5	-100%	-1.5 / 1.5 (-100%)

Winning Events: 5 (31%)
Losing Events: 11 (69%)

Average Staked Per Event: 8.75 units
Most Staked On One Event: 15.50 units
Best Event: 6.18 units
Worst Event: -10.00 units
Average Event: -2.54 units

Max Win Streak: Events: 2, Units: 7.32
Max Losing Streak: Events: 5, Units: -28.83

Mitch D: Year on Year Profit

Year	Bet	Won	ROI	Straight Won / Bet (ROI%)	Prop Won / Bet (ROI%)	Parlay Won / Bet (ROI%)	Events Won / Lost (%)	Profit Per Event
2021	114	-28.3	-25%	-4.5 / 54 (-8%)	-17.3 / 32 (-54%)	-6.5 / 28 (-23%)	5 / 8 (38%)	-2.18
2020	26	-12.3	-47%	-14.0 / 14 (-100%)	6.2 / 7.5 (83%)	-4.5 / 4.5 (-100%)	/ 3 (0%)	-4.10

Mitch D: Yearly Straight Pick Stats

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Mitch D: Profit / Loss by Organization

Organization	Bet	Won	ROI	Straight Picks	Props	Parlays
UFC	135.5	-36.1	-27%	-14.0 / 63.5 (-22%)	-11.1 / 39.5 (-28%)	-11.0 / 32.5 (-34%)
Bellator	4.5	-4.5	-100%	-4.5 / 4.5 (-100%)

Mitch D: Straight Pick Stats

Big favourite means >65% win chance according to bookies. Big underdog is <35% chance.

	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Units Bet	Units Profit	Profit per Pick	ROI
Big Favorites	4 (16%)	2	50 %	18.50	-3.79	-0.95	-20%
Slight Favorites	8 (32%)	4	50 %	26.50	-1.38	-0.17	-5%
Slight Underdogs	11 (44%)	2	18 %	21.00	-14.63	-1.33	-70%
Big Underdogs	2 (8%)	1	50 %	2.00	1.30	0.65	65%

Betting Stats By Card Position

	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Units Bet	Units Profit	Profit per Pick	ROI
Main Event	4 (16%)	1	25 %	10.50	-7.28	-1.82	-69%
Co-Main Event	3 (12%)	1	33 %	7.50	-0.42	-0.14	-6%
Position 3-5	7 (28%)	2	29 %	15.00	-5.28	-0.75	-35%
6+ (Undercard)	10 (40%)	5	50 %	30.00	-0.51	-0.05	-2%

Mitch D: Profit by Weight Class

	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Units Bet	Units Profit	Profit per Pick	ROI
Heavyweight	1 (4%)		0 %	3.50	-3.50	-3.50	-100%
Light Heavy	1 (4%)		0 %	1.00	-1.00	-1.00	-100%
Middleweight	2 (8%)	1	50 %	4.50	2.33	1.17	52%
Welterweight	4 (16%)	2	50 %	12.00	-1.69	-0.42	-14%
Lightweight	2 (8%)	1	50 %	9.00	-1.37	-0.68	-15%
Featherweight	3 (12%)	1	33 %	5.50	-2.35	-0.78	-43%
Bantamweight	5 (20%)	2	40 %	18.50	-6.63	-1.33	-36%
Flyweight	3 (12%)	1	33 %	7.50	-1.08	-0.36	-14%

Women's Fights	4 (16%)	1	25 %	6.50	-3.20	-0.80	-49%
Bantamweight	2 (8%)		0 %	3.50	-3.50	-1.75	-100%
Strawweight	2 (8%)	1	50 %	3.00	0.30	0.15	10%

Props & Parlay Section Stats (Individual sections of this handicapper's parlays)

Straight picks within parlays

	Picks	Correct	% Correct
Big Favorites	17 (71%)	10	59 %
Slight Favorites	7 (29%)	5	71 %
Slight Underdogs	0 (0%)	0	nan %
Big Underdogs	0 (0%)	0	nan %
	24	15	63 %

Props bets and props within parlays

	Picks	Correct	% Correct
>65% chance	0 (0%)	0	nan %
50-65%	5 (38%)	3	60 %
35-50%	5 (38%)	1	20 %
<35% chance	3 (23%)	0	0 %
	13	4	31 %

Prop Bets and Props within Parlays: Bet Types

Prop Type	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Avg Odds	Longest Odds	Shortest Odds	1U Bet (ROI %)
Over (e.g. 1.5 / 2.5 rnds)	1 (8%)	1	100 %	1.74	1.74	1.74	0.7 (74%)
Under (e.g. 1.5 / 2.5 rnds)	1 (8%)	0	0 %	1.91	1.91	1.91	-1.0 (-100%)
Goes to Decision	2 (15%)	2	100 %	1.76	2.00	1.57	1.6 (79%)
Does not go to Decision	1 (8%)	0	0 %	1.74	1.74	1.74	-1.0 (-100%)
X Wins by KO	2 (15%)	0	0 %	3.24	5.00	2.40	-2.0 (-100%)
X Wins by Decision	2 (15%)	0	0 %	2.33	2.80	2.00	-2.0 (-100%)
X Wins Inside Distance	2 (15%)	0	0 %	2.56	3.40	2.05	-2.0 (-100%)
X Wins in Round X	2 (15%)	1	50 %	2.19	3.20	1.67	-0.3 (-17%)
	13	4	31 %	2.17			-6.0 (-46%)

* 1U Bet (ROI %): Many of the picks will have been part of a parlay, however, as a rough guide to value / profitability, this figure supposes that the handicapper put a 1U bet on each of the picks individually, showing the profit / loss they would have made and the ROI %.

Tail Mitch D's bets

If you had tailed this handicapper's bets since they started logging their picks with us, it would have affected your betting bank balance as follows...

This is more accurate than simply X units total profit. Under that more basic system, 1 unit is equal to the same amount of theoretical dollars, whether it was the last event or 10 events ago. However, if a handicapper has 10 events profit in a row, their betting bank balance will be significantly larger for the 10th event and 1 unit will equal a LOT more than it did 10 events ago.

Date	Event	Bet	Won	ROI	Fee	1 unit =	Start	End
11th Dec	Bellator 254	1.5	-1.5	-100%		$10.00	$1,000.00	$985.00
13th Dec	UFC 256	15.5	-6.8	-44%		$9.85	$985.00	$918.06
19th Dec	UFC Vegas 17	9	-4.0	-44%		$9.18	$918.06	$881.33
16th Jan	UFC FN	8.5	-4.3	-50%		$8.81	$881.33	$843.81
20th Jan	UFC on ESPN 20	9	-5.8	-64%		$8.44	$843.81	$795.08
24th Jan	UFC 257	11	6.2	56%		$7.95	$795.08	$844.18
6th Feb	UFC FN	10	-3.6	-36%		$8.44	$844.18	$813.93
14th Feb	UFC 258	8	1.3	16%		$8.14	$813.93	$824.26
20th Feb	UFC Fight Night 185	11	-7.9	-71%		$8.24	$824.26	$759.55
28th Feb	UFC Fight Night 186	10.5	-6.5	-62%		$7.60	$759.55	$710.30
6th Mar	UFC 259	10	-10.0	-100%		$7.10	$710.30	$639.27
13th Mar	UFC Fight Night 187	4.5	-4.5	-100%		$6.39	$639.27	$610.50
21st Mar	UFC Fight Night 188	9	3.6	40%		$6.10	$610.50	$632.67
28th Mar	UFC 260	8.5	3.7	43%		$6.33	$632.67	$655.98
9th Apr	Bellator 256	3	-3.0	-100%		$6.56	$655.98	$636.30
10th Apr	UFC FN	11	2.4	21%		$6.36	$636.30	$651.30

ROI % from starting bank balance: -34.87% (including fees)
*Note - we don't store historical fee amounts, so we assume the fees are the same as the handicapper charges now.

Mitch D: Last 20 Wins / Losses (Straight Picks)

Last 20 Wins

	Date	Straight Pick	Opponent	Odds	Bet	Result
1.	Apr '21	Jack Shore	Hunter Azure	1.57	5	Split Decision (3 rounds)
2.	Mar '21	Vicente Luque	Tyron Woodley	1.42	5	Sub, R1 (3:56)
3.	Mar '21	Grant Dawson	Leonardo Santos	1.53	5	TKO, R3 (4:59)
4.	Feb '21	Ronnie Lawrence	Vince Cachero	1.61	2.5	TKO, R3 (2:38)
5.	Feb '21	Jared Gordon	Danny Chavez	2.10	1.5	U Decision (3 rounds)
6.	Feb '21	Alexandre Pantoja	Manel Kape	1.83	3.5	U Decision (3 rounds)
7.	Jan '21	Marina Alcalde Rodriguez	Amanda Ribas	3.30	1	TKO, R2 (0:54)
8.	Jan '21	Brad Tavares	Antonio Carlos Junior	1.95	3.5	U Decision (3 rounds)
9.	Jan '21	Michael Chiesa	Neil Magny	2.15	1.5	U Decision (5 rounds)

Last 20 Losses

	Date	Straight Pick	Opponent	Odds	Bet	Result	Hedge?
1.	Apr '21	Jeremy Kennedy	Adam Borics	1.74	3	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
2.	Mar '21	Marion Reneau	Macy Chiasson	2.70	1	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
3.	Mar '21	Gavin Tucker	Dan Ige	2.25	1	TKO, R1 (0:22)	No
4.	Mar '21	Jonathan Martinez	Davey Grant	1.31	3.5	TKO, R2 (3:3)	No
5.	Mar '21	Yadong Song	Kyler Phillips	1.63	2.5	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
6.	Mar '21	Mario Bautista	Trevin Jones	1.43	5	TKO, R2 (0:47)	No
7.	Feb '21	Nikita Krylov	Magomed Ankalaev	3.80	1	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
8.	Feb '21	Maki Pitolo	Julian Marquez	2.40	1	Sub, R3 (4:17)	No
9.	Feb '21	Alistair Overeem	Alexander Volkov	2.60	3.5	TKO, R2 (2:6)	No
10.	Jan '21	Sara McMann	Julianna Pena	1.74	2.5	Sub, R3 (3:39)	No
11.	Jan '21	Matt Brown	Carlos Condit	2.45	1.5	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
12.	Dec '20	Cody Durden	Jimmy Flick	2.20	2.5	Sub, R1 (3:18)	No
13.	Dec '20	Geoff Neal	Stephen Thompson	1.80	4	U Decision (5 rounds)	No
14.	Dec '20	Virna Jandiroba	Mackenzie Dern	2.60	2	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
15.	Dec '20	Renato Moicano	Rafael Fiziev	2.20	4	TKO, R1 (4:5)	No
16.	Dec '20	Ilima-Lei Macfarlane	Juliana Velasquez	2.35	1.5	U Decision (5 rounds)	No

* Hedge indicates that this handicapper also had a WINNING bet on the opponent. For example, they may have bet A to win straight up but with a hedge on the other fighter winning by decision.

Mitch D: Progress Chart

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