|
MMA Handicapper Stats: Risky UFC |
|
Risky UFC: Event by Event Predictions |
The straight picks, parlays and props sections display Winnings / Bets (ROI%)
Date |
Event |
Bet |
Won |
ROI |
Straight Picks |
Props |
Parlays |
24th Jan '21 |
UFC 257 |
6.91 |
6.1 |
88% |
|
6.1 / 6.91 (88%) |
|
20th Jan '21 |
UFC on ESPN 20 |
6.33 |
2.6 |
40% |
|
2.0 / 2.7 (74%) |
0.6 / 3.63 (16%) |
16th Jan '21 |
UFC FN |
3.8 |
-3.8 |
-100% |
|
-3.8 / 3.8 (-100%) |
|
19th Dec '20 |
UFC Vegas 17 |
14.89 |
3.1 |
21% |
-4.4 / 4.38 (-100%) |
0.9 / 2.94 (31%) |
6.6 / 7.57 (87%) |
13th Dec '20 |
UFC 256 |
14.74 |
-5.8 |
-39% |
0.0 / 3.36 (0%) |
-3.8 / 3.8 (-100%) |
-2.0 / 7.58 (-27%) |
11th Dec '20 |
Cage Warriors 118 |
0.5 |
0.3 |
63% |
|
|
0.3 / 0.5 (63%) |
11th Dec '20 |
Bellator 254 |
1.53 |
0.5 |
31% |
|
0.5 / 1.53 (31%) |
|
6th Dec '20 |
UFC Vegas 16 |
5.56 |
5.8 |
105% |
|
1.4 / 2.55 (56%) |
4.4 / 3.01 (147%) |
29th Nov '20 |
UFC Vegas 15 |
11.23 |
6.0 |
54% |
2.0 / 2.9 (69%) |
7.0 / 5.36 (131%) |
-3.0 / 2.97 (-100%) |
21st Nov '20 |
UFC 255 |
19.53 |
1.4 |
7% |
1.0 / 6.18 (16%) |
-4.1 / 4.05 (-100%) |
4.5 / 9.3 (49%) |
19th Nov '20 |
Bellator 253 |
1.77 |
-1.8 |
-100% |
|
|
-1.8 / 1.77 (-100%) |
18th Nov '20 |
DWCS 36 |
1.75 |
-1.8 |
-100% |
|
|
-1.8 / 1.75 (-100%) |
14th Nov '20 |
UFC Vegas 14 |
10.14 |
1.8 |
17% |
2.0 / 3.8 (53%) |
-1.2 / 5.34 (-23%) |
1.0 / 1 (101%) |
12th Nov '20 |
Bellator 252 |
1 |
-1.0 |
-100% |
|
|
-1.0 / 1 (-100%) |
11th Nov '20 |
DWCS 35 |
1 |
1.1 |
106% |
|
|
1.1 / 1 (106%) |
8th Nov '20 |
UFC Vegas 13 |
11 |
-4.2 |
-38% |
|
1.8 / 5 (36%) |
-6.0 / 6 (-100%) |
5th Nov '20 |
Bellator 251 |
1 |
0.9 |
90% |
|
|
0.9 / 1 (90%) |
5th Nov '20 |
DWCS 34 |
1 |
1.0 |
103% |
|
|
1.0 / 1 (103%) |
31st Oct '20 |
UFC Vegas 12 |
9 |
-4.9 |
-55% |
1.6 / 2.5 (63%) |
|
-6.5 / 6.5 (-100%) |
24th Oct '20 |
UFC 254 |
9.5 |
4.6 |
49% |
0.7 / 7 (9%) |
-1.5 / 1.5 (-100%) |
5.5 / 1 (549%) |
17th Oct '20 |
UFC FN - Ortega vs Zombie |
11 |
-4.9 |
-44% |
-3.8 / 8 (-47%) |
-0.6 / 2.5 (-24%) |
-0.5 / 0.5 (-100%) |
15th Oct '20 |
Bellator 249 |
1 |
-1.0 |
-100% |
|
|
-1.0 / 1 (-100%) |
10th Oct '20 |
UFC FN - Moraes vs Sandhagen |
11.5 |
-0.8 |
-7% |
3.2 / 7.5 (43%) |
|
-4.0 / 4 (-100%) |
4th Oct '20 |
UFC FN - Holm vs Aldana |
6 |
9.8 |
164% |
1.8 / 2 (91%) |
11.0 / 1 (1,100%) |
-3.0 / 3 (-100%) |
26th Sep '20 |
UFC 253 |
6 |
1.6 |
27% |
2.2 / 1 (220%) |
-2.0 / 2 (-100%) |
1.4 / 3 (47%) |
19th Sep '20 |
UFC FN - Covington vs Woodley |
6 |
-2.6 |
-43% |
|
|
-2.6 / 6 (-43%) |
16th Sep '20 |
DWCS 33 |
2 |
1.1 |
57% |
1.1 / 2 (57%) |
|
|
12th Sep '20 |
UFC Fight Night 184 |
8.5 |
4.8 |
57% |
2.0 / 1 (195%) |
1.1 / 5.5 (20%) |
1.8 / 2 (89%) |
11th Sep '20 |
Bellator 245 |
4 |
-1.5 |
-36% |
|
|
-1.5 / 4 (-36%) |
Winning Events: 17 (59%) Losing Events: 12 (41%)
Average Staked Per Event: 6.49 units Most Staked On One Event: 19.53 units Best Event: 9.82 units Worst Event: -5.82 units Average Event: 0.64 units
Max Win Streak: Events: 5, Units: 14.11 Max Losing Streak: Events: 3, Units: -6.65 |
Risky UFC: Year on Year Profit |
Year |
Bet |
Won |
ROI |
Straight
Won / Bet (ROI%) |
Prop
Won / Bet (ROI%) |
Parlay
Won / Bet (ROI%) |
Events
Won / Lost
(%) |
Profit
Per Event |
2021 |
17.04 |
4.8 |
28% |
|
4.3 / 13.41 (32%) |
0.6 / 3.63 (16%) |
2 / 1 (67%) |
1.61 |
2020 |
171.14 |
13.9 |
8% |
9.4 / 51.62 (18%) |
10.5 / 43.07 (24%) |
-6.0 / 76.45 (-8%) |
15 / 11 (58%) |
0.53 |
|
Risky UFC: Yearly Straight Pick Stats |
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Risky UFC: Profit / Loss by Organization |
Organization |
Bet |
Won |
ROI |
Straight Picks |
Props |
Parlays |
UFC |
171.63 |
20.7 |
12% |
8.2 / 49.62 (17%) |
14.3 / 54.95 (26%) |
-1.8 / 67.06 (-3%) |
Bellator |
10.3 |
-3.9 |
-37% |
|
0.5 / 1.53 (31%) |
-4.3 / 8.77 (-49%) |
Other |
6.25 |
1.8 |
29% |
1.1 / 2 (57%) |
|
0.7 / 4.25 (15%) |
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Risky UFC: Straight Pick Stats |
Big favourite means >65% win chance according to bookies. Big underdog is <35% chance.
|
Picks |
Correct |
% Correct |
Units Bet |
Units Profit |
Profit per Pick |
ROI |
Big Favorites |
5 (17%) |
4 |
80 % |
12.04 |
2.92 |
0.58 |
24% |
Slight Favorites |
13 (43%) |
9 |
69 % |
25.36 |
2.96 |
0.23 |
12% |
Slight Underdogs |
7 (23%) |
3 |
43 % |
8.04 |
-2.59 |
-0.37 |
-32% |
Big Underdogs |
5 (17%) |
3 |
60 % |
6.18 |
6.07 |
1.21 |
98% |
Betting Stats By Card Position
|
Picks |
Correct |
% Correct |
Units Bet |
Units Profit |
Profit per Pick |
ROI |
Main Event |
3 (10%) |
3 |
100 % |
8.70 |
5.43 |
1.81 |
62% |
Co-Main Event |
4 (13%) |
1 |
25 % |
5.00 |
-1.80 |
-0.45 |
-36% |
Position 3-5 |
5 (17%) |
4 |
80 % |
7.36 |
4.29 |
0.86 |
58% |
6+ (Undercard) |
18 (60%) |
11 |
61 % |
30.56 |
1.45 |
0.08 |
5% |
|
Risky UFC: Profit by Weight Class |
|
Picks |
Correct |
% Correct |
Units Bet |
Units Profit |
Profit per Pick |
ROI |
Heavyweight |
4 (13%) |
3 |
75 % |
6.00 |
5.71 |
1.43 |
95% |
Light Heavy |
3 (10%) |
3 |
100 % |
4.90 |
6.15 |
2.05 |
126% |
Middleweight |
6 (20%) |
2 |
33 % |
11.74 |
-5.64 |
-0.94 |
-48% |
Welterweight |
5 (17%) |
5 |
100 % |
6.50 |
5.63 |
1.13 |
87% |
Lightweight |
3 (10%) |
1 |
33 % |
7.80 |
-2.00 |
-0.67 |
-26% |
Featherweight |
4 (13%) |
2 |
50 % |
5.50 |
-1.16 |
-0.29 |
-21% |
Bantamweight |
1 (3%) |
1 |
100 % |
2.00 |
1.43 |
1.43 |
71% |
Flyweight |
2 (7%) |
1 |
50 % |
5.18 |
-0.23 |
-0.12 |
-5% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Women's Fights |
2 (7%) |
1 |
50 % |
2.00 |
-0.52 |
-0.26 |
-26% |
Flyweight |
2 (7%) |
1 |
50 % |
2.00 |
-0.52 |
-0.26 |
-26% |
|
Props & Parlay Section Stats (Individual sections of this handicapper's parlays) |
Straight picks within parlays
|
Picks |
Correct |
% Correct |
Big Favorites |
96 (84%) |
72 |
75 % |
Slight Favorites |
16 (14%) |
10 |
63 % |
Slight Underdogs |
0 (0%) |
0 |
nan % |
Big Underdogs |
2 (2%) |
1 |
50 % |
|
114 |
83 |
73 % |
Props bets and props within parlays
|
Picks |
Correct |
% Correct |
>65% chance |
35 (55%) |
27 |
77 % |
50-65% |
18 (28%) |
10 |
56 % |
35-50% |
6 (9%) |
3 |
50 % |
<35% chance |
5 (8%) |
2 |
40 % |
|
64 |
42 |
66 % |
|
Prop Bets and Props within Parlays: Bet Types |
* 1U Bet (ROI %): Many of the picks will have been part of a parlay, however, as a rough guide to value / profitability, this figure supposes that the handicapper put a 1U bet on each of the picks individually, showing the profit / loss they would have made and the ROI %. |
Tail Risky UFC's bets |
If you had tailed this handicapper's bets since they started logging their picks with us, it would have affected your betting bank balance as follows...
This is more accurate than simply X units total profit. Under that more basic system, 1 unit is equal to the same amount of theoretical dollars, whether it was the last event or 10 events ago. However, if a handicapper has 10 events profit in a row, their betting bank balance will be significantly larger for the 10th event and 1 unit will equal a LOT more than it did 10 events ago.
Date |
Event |
Bet |
Won |
ROI |
Fee |
1 unit = |
Start |
End |
11th Sep |
Bellator 245 |
4 |
-1.5 |
-36% |
|
$10.00 |
$1,000.00 |
$985.41 |
12th Sep |
UFC Fight Night 184 |
8.5 |
4.8 |
57% |
|
$9.85 |
$985.41 |
$1,033.09 |
16th Sep |
DWCS 33 |
2 |
1.1 |
57% |
|
$10.33 |
$1,033.09 |
$1,044.90 |
19th Sep |
UFC FN - Covington vs Woodley |
6 |
-2.6 |
-43% |
|
$10.45 |
$1,044.90 |
$1,017.64 |
26th Sep |
UFC 253 |
6 |
1.6 |
27% |
|
$10.18 |
$1,017.64 |
$1,034.07 |
4th Oct |
UFC FN - Holm vs Aldana |
6 |
9.8 |
164% |
|
$10.34 |
$1,034.07 |
$1,135.64 |
10th Oct |
UFC FN - Moraes vs Sandhagen |
11.5 |
-0.8 |
-7% |
|
$11.36 |
$1,135.64 |
$1,126.88 |
15th Oct |
Bellator 249 |
1 |
-1.0 |
-100% |
|
$11.27 |
$1,126.88 |
$1,115.62 |
17th Oct |
UFC FN - Ortega vs Zombie |
11 |
-4.9 |
-44% |
|
$11.16 |
$1,115.62 |
$1,061.24 |
24th Oct |
UFC 254 |
9.5 |
4.6 |
49% |
|
$10.61 |
$1,061.24 |
$1,110.56 |
31st Oct |
UFC Vegas 12 |
9 |
-4.9 |
-55% |
|
$11.11 |
$1,110.56 |
$1,055.73 |
5th Nov |
DWCS 34 |
1 |
1.0 |
103% |
|
$10.56 |
$1,055.73 |
$1,066.56 |
5th Nov |
Bellator 251 |
1 |
0.9 |
90% |
|
$10.67 |
$1,066.56 |
$1,076.17 |
8th Nov |
UFC Vegas 13 |
11 |
-4.2 |
-38% |
|
$10.76 |
$1,076.17 |
$1,030.82 |
11th Nov |
DWCS 35 |
1 |
1.1 |
106% |
|
$10.31 |
$1,030.82 |
$1,041.77 |
12th Nov |
Bellator 252 |
1 |
-1.0 |
-100% |
|
$10.42 |
$1,041.77 |
$1,031.35 |
14th Nov |
UFC Vegas 14 |
10.14 |
1.8 |
17% |
$5 |
$10.31 |
$1,031.35 |
$1,044.56 |
18th Nov |
DWCS 36 |
1.75 |
-1.8 |
-100% |
|
$10.45 |
$1,044.56 |
$1,026.28 |
19th Nov |
Bellator 253 |
1.77 |
-1.8 |
-100% |
|
$10.26 |
$1,026.28 |
$1,008.12 |
21st Nov |
UFC 255 |
19.53 |
1.4 |
7% |
$5 |
$10.08 |
$1,008.12 |
$1,017.55 |
29th Nov |
UFC Vegas 15 |
11.23 |
6.0 |
54% |
$5 |
$10.18 |
$1,017.55 |
$1,074.05 |
6th Dec |
UFC Vegas 16 |
5.56 |
5.8 |
105% |
$5 |
$10.74 |
$1,074.05 |
$1,131.84 |
11th Dec |
Bellator 254 |
1.53 |
0.5 |
31% |
$5 |
$11.32 |
$1,131.84 |
$1,132.17 |
11th Dec |
Cage Warriors 118 |
0.5 |
0.3 |
63% |
$5 |
$11.32 |
$1,132.17 |
$1,130.77 |
13th Dec |
UFC 256 |
14.74 |
-5.8 |
-39% |
$5 |
$11.31 |
$1,130.77 |
$1,059.95 |
19th Dec |
UFC Vegas 17 |
14.89 |
3.1 |
21% |
$5 |
$10.60 |
$1,059.95 |
$1,088.25 |
16th Jan |
UFC FN |
3.8 |
-3.8 |
-100% |
$5 |
$10.88 |
$1,088.25 |
$1,041.89 |
20th Jan |
UFC on ESPN 20 |
6.33 |
2.6 |
40% |
|
$10.42 |
$1,041.89 |
$1,068.60 |
24th Jan |
UFC 257 |
6.91 |
6.1 |
88% |
|
$10.69 |
$1,068.60 |
$1,133.28 |
ROI % from starting bank balance: 13.33% (including fees)
*Note - we don't store historical fee amounts, so we assume the fees are the same as the handicapper charges now. |
Risky UFC: Last 20 Wins / Losses (Straight Picks) |
Last 20 Wins
|
Date |
Straight Pick |
Opponent |
Odds |
Bet |
Result |
|
|
1. |
Dec '20 |
Kevin Holland |
Ronaldo Souza |
1.91 |
1.76 |
TKO, R1 (1:45) |
|
|
2. |
Nov '20 |
Anthony Smith |
Devin Clark |
1.69 |
2.9 |
Sub, R1 (2:34) |
|
|
3. |
Nov '20 |
Brandon Moreno |
Brandon Royval |
1.53 |
3.24 |
TKO, R1 (4:59) |
|
|
4. |
Nov '20 |
Tim Means |
Mike Perry |
2.20 |
1 |
U Decision (3 rounds) |
|
|
5. |
Nov '20 |
Rafael dos Anjos |
Paul Felder |
1.53 |
3.8 |
Split Decision (5 rounds) |
|
|
6. |
Oct '20 |
Jason Witt |
Cole Williams |
1.63 |
2.5 |
Sub, R2 (2:9) |
|
|
7. |
Oct '20 |
Tai Tuivasa |
Stefan Struve |
1.87 |
2 |
TKO, R1 (4:59) |
|
|
8. |
Oct '20 |
Shavkat Rakhmonov |
Alex Oliveira |
2.05 |
1 |
Sub, R1 (4:40) |
|
|
9. |
Oct '20 |
Tai Tuivasa |
Stefan Struve |
1.87 |
1 |
TKO, R1 (4:59) |
|
|
10. |
Oct '20 |
Gillian Robertson |
Poliana Botelho |
1.48 |
1 |
U Decision (3 rounds) |
|
|
11. |
Oct '20 |
Jun Yong Park |
John Phillips |
1.37 |
2 |
U Decision (3 rounds) |
|
|
12. |
Oct '20 |
Cory Sandhagen |
Marlon Moraes |
1.71 |
2 |
TKO, R2 (1:3) |
|
|
13. |
Oct '20 |
Ilia Topuria |
Youssef Zalal |
2.40 |
0.5 |
U Decision (3 rounds) |
|
|
14. |
Oct '20 |
Chris Daukaus |
Rodrigo Nascimento Ferreira |
3.05 |
2 |
TKO, R1 (0:45) |
|
|
15. |
Oct '20 |
Nassourdine Imavov |
Jordan Williams |
1.95 |
1 |
U Decision (3 rounds) |
|
|
16. |
Oct '20 |
Luigi Vendramini |
Jessin Ayari |
1.87 |
1 |
TKO, R1 (1:12) |
|
|
17. |
Sep '20 |
Jan Blachowicz |
Dominick Reyes |
3.20 |
1 |
TKO, R2 (4:36) |
|
|
18. |
Sep '20 |
Kyle Driscoll |
Dinis Paiva |
1.57 |
2 |
U Decision (3 rounds) |
|
|
19. |
Sep '20 |
Ed Herman |
Mike Rodriguez |
2.95 |
1 |
Sub, R3 (2:41) |
|
|
Last 20 Losses
* Hedge indicates that this handicapper also had a WINNING bet on the opponent. For example, they may have bet A to win straight up but with a hedge on the other fighter winning by decision. |
Risky UFC: Progress Chart |
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