UFC Fighters Who Missed Weight |
| Fighters often miss their weight limit for their UFC fights, for whatever reason. Quite often that sees their odds change quite dramatically, with people assuming they'll then turn in a poor performance in their fight at the event the next day. So do they? Let's have a look at the statistics. |
UFC Fights Where a Fighter Missed Weight |
|
UFC Fighters Who Missed Weight Win % |
| Missed Weight Wins |
112 |
45% |
|
|
Missed Weight Losses |
137 |
55% |
|
| KOs / TKOs |
41 |
37% |
|
|
KOs / TKOs |
33 |
24% |
|
| Submissions |
19 |
17% |
|
|
Submissions |
35 |
26% |
|
| Decisions |
51 |
46% |
|
|
Decisions |
69 |
50% |
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Betting on UFC FIghters Who Missed Weight |
| Bet $10 on all fights ($2490 total bet) |
| $10 bet on fighters who missed weight |
$inf |
inf% ROI |
| $10 bet against fighters who missed weight |
$inf |
inf% ROI |
| |
|
|
| Average odds fighters who missed weight |
+123 |
|
| Average odds non fighters who missed weight |
+101 |
|
|
Betting on the missed weight fighters, broken down by odds ranges |
% Win Chance: A conversion of the bookmaker's odds into their % probability of a win for fighters in this odds range.
% Won: The percentage of fighters that actually won in that odds range.
Avg % Win Chance: The average bookmaker odds for the fighters in this odds range.
= Odds of: Avg % Win Chance converted into odds format.
Over / Under Perform: Here we compare the Avg % Win Chance (i.e. what percentage of the fights the bookmaker says these fighters should win), with how many actually won. Over performing means more fighters are winning in this odds bracket than should and under performing (negative number) means this odds range under performs and would not be good to bet on.
| % Win Chance |
=Odds |
Fights |
Won |
Lost |
% Won |
% Won |
Avg % Win Chance |
= Odds |
Over / Under Perform |
Bet $10 on
all fights (ROI) |
| <10% |
+900 |
16 |
5 |
11 |
|
31% |
0% |
+22,300 |
31% |
|
$11,040 (6,900%) |
| 10-15% |
+900 to +567 |
6 |
0 |
6 |
|
0% |
13% |
+655 |
-13% |
|
$-60 (-100%) |
| 15-20% |
+567 to +400 |
10 |
2 |
8 |
|
20% |
18% |
+459 |
2% |
|
$12 (12%) |
| 20-25% |
+400 to +300 |
15 |
1 |
14 |
|
7% |
22% |
+360 |
-15% |
|
$-104 (-69%) |
| 25-30% |
+300 to +233 |
17 |
6 |
11 |
|
35% |
28% |
+263 |
8% |
|
$48 (28%) |
| 30-35% |
+233 to +186 |
18 |
8 |
10 |
|
44% |
33% |
+201 |
11% |
|
$61 (34%) |
| 35-40% |
+186 to +150 |
18 |
8 |
10 |
|
44% |
37% |
+168 |
7% |
|
$34 (19%) |
| 40-45% |
+150 to +122 |
27 |
13 |
14 |
|
48% |
42% |
+138 |
6% |
|
$40 (15%) |
| 45-50% |
+122 to +100 |
14 |
6 |
8 |
|
43% |
47% |
+113 |
-4% |
|
$-12 (-9%) |
| 50-55% |
+100 to -122 |
18 |
10 |
8 |
|
56% |
53% |
-112 |
3% |
|
$10 (5%) |
| 55-60% |
-122 to -150 |
21 |
11 |
10 |
|
52% |
58% |
-136 |
-5% |
|
$-19 (-9%) |
| 60-65% |
-150 to -186 |
24 |
9 |
15 |
|
38% |
62% |
-165 |
-25% |
|
$-95 (-40%) |
| 65-70% |
-186 to -233 |
16 |
10 |
6 |
|
63% |
68% |
-209 |
-5% |
|
$-12 (-8%) |
| 70-75% |
-233 to -300 |
12 |
10 |
2 |
|
83% |
72% |
-261 |
11% |
|
$18 (15%) |
| 75-80% |
-300 to -400 |
8 |
6 |
2 |
|
75% |
77% |
-341 |
-2% |
|
$-2 (-3%) |
| 80-85% |
-400 to -567 |
9 |
5 |
4 |
|
56% |
82% |
-462 |
-27% |
|
$-29 (-32%) |
| 85-90% |
-567 to -900 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
|
67% |
87% |
-653 |
-20% |
|
$-7 (-23%) |
| 90% + |
-900 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
112 |
140 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Betting against the fighters who missed weight, broken down by odds ranges |
| % Win Chance |
=Odds |
Fights |
Won |
Lost |
% Won |
% Won |
Avg % Win Chance |
= Odds |
Over / Under Perform |
Bet $10 on
all fights (ROI) |
| <10% |
+900 |
15 |
10 |
5 |
|
67% |
0% |
+inf |
67% |
|
$inf (inf%) |
| 10-15% |
+900 to +567 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
|
100% |
13% |
+660 |
87% |
|
$66 (660%) |
| 15-20% |
+567 to +400 |
9 |
3 |
6 |
|
33% |
18% |
+461 |
16% |
|
$78 (87%) |
| 20-25% |
+400 to +300 |
5 |
1 |
4 |
|
20% |
22% |
+348 |
-2% |
|
$-5 (-10%) |
| 25-30% |
+300 to +233 |
15 |
4 |
11 |
|
27% |
28% |
+263 |
-1% |
|
$-5 (-3%) |
| 30-35% |
+233 to +186 |
13 |
4 |
9 |
|
31% |
33% |
+204 |
-2% |
|
$-8 (-6%) |
| 35-40% |
+186 to +150 |
20 |
13 |
7 |
|
65% |
37% |
+167 |
28% |
|
$147 (73%) |
| 40-45% |
+150 to +122 |
32 |
16 |
16 |
|
50% |
42% |
+137 |
8% |
|
$59 (18%) |
| 45-50% |
+122 to +100 |
15 |
5 |
10 |
|
33% |
47% |
+111 |
-14% |
|
$-45 (-30%) |
| 50-55% |
+100 to -122 |
16 |
9 |
7 |
|
56% |
53% |
-111 |
4% |
|
$11 (7%) |
| 55-60% |
-122 to -150 |
19 |
10 |
9 |
|
53% |
58% |
-139 |
-5% |
|
$-18 (-9%) |
| 60-65% |
-150 to -186 |
23 |
12 |
11 |
|
52% |
62% |
-165 |
-10% |
|
$-37 (-16%) |
| 65-70% |
-186 to -233 |
19 |
12 |
7 |
|
63% |
68% |
-210 |
-5% |
|
$-13 (-7%) |
| 70-75% |
-233 to -300 |
13 |
9 |
4 |
|
69% |
72% |
-260 |
-3% |
|
$-5 (-4%) |
| 75-80% |
-300 to -400 |
16 |
12 |
4 |
|
75% |
77% |
-336 |
-2% |
|
$-4 (-3%) |
| 80-85% |
-400 to -567 |
13 |
11 |
2 |
|
85% |
82% |
-468 |
2% |
|
$4 (3%) |
| 85-90% |
-567 to -900 |
6 |
6 |
0 |
|
100% |
87% |
-692 |
13% |
|
$9 (14%) |
| 90% + |
-900 |
2 |
2 |
0 |
|
100% |
91% |
-1,048 |
9% |
|
$2 (10%) |
| |
|
|
140 |
112 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
General Fight Summary |
| Weight class |
Fights |
% |
|
|
Knockouts |
Submissions |
Decisions |
| Heavyweight |
3 |
1% |
|
 |
|
|
|
| Light Heavyweight |
8 |
3% |
|
|
|
|
|
| Middleweight |
16 |
6% |
|
|
|
|
|
| Welterweight |
21 |
8% |
|
|
|
|
|
| Lightweight |
46 |
18% |
|
|
|
|
|
| Featherweight |
58 |
23% |
|
|
|
|
|
| Bantamweight |
24 |
10% |
|
|
|
|
|
| Flyweight |
25 |
10% |
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Women's Fights |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Bantamweight |
15 |
6% |
|
|
|
|
|
| Strawweight |
13 |
5% |
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| All Fights |
249 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Knockouts |
74 |
30% |
|
|
|
|
|
| Submissions |
54 |
22% |
|
|
|
|
|
| Decisions |
120 |
48% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
MMA Fight Statistics - KOs, Subs and Decisions by weight class |
| Knockouts |
|
|
|
|
|
| Weight class |
lbs |
Fights |
% |
|
|
| Heavyweight |
265 |
3/3 |
100% |
|
|
| Light Heavyweight |
205 |
5/8 |
63% |
|
|
| Middleweight |
185 |
4/16 |
25% |
|
|
| Welterweight |
170 |
4/21 |
19% |
|
|
| Lightweight |
155 |
17/46 |
37% |
|
|
| Featherweight |
145 |
18/58 |
31% |
|
|
| Bantamweight |
135 |
6/24 |
25% |
|
|
| Flyweight |
125 |
9/25 |
36% |
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
| Women's Fights |
|
|
|
|
|
| Bantamweight |
135 |
5/15 |
33% |
|
|
| Strawweight |
115 |
1/13 |
8% |
|
|
|
| Submissions |
|
|
|
|
|
| Weight class |
lbs |
Fights |
% |
|
|
| Heavyweight |
265 |
0/3 |
0% |
|
|
| Light Heavyweight |
205 |
2/8 |
25% |
|
|
| Middleweight |
185 |
1/16 |
6% |
|
|
| Welterweight |
170 |
5/21 |
24% |
|
|
| Lightweight |
155 |
14/46 |
30% |
|
|
| Featherweight |
145 |
14/58 |
24% |
|
|
| Bantamweight |
135 |
6/24 |
25% |
|
|
| Flyweight |
125 |
6/25 |
24% |
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
| Women's Fights |
|
|
|
|
|
| Bantamweight |
135 |
3/15 |
20% |
|
|
| Strawweight |
115 |
1/13 |
8% |
|
|
|
| Decisions |
|
|
|
|
|
| Weight class |
lbs |
Fights |
% |
|
|
| Heavyweight |
265 |
0/3 |
0% |
|
|
| Light Heavyweight |
205 |
1/8 |
13% |
|
|
| Middleweight |
185 |
10/16 |
63% |
|
|
| Welterweight |
170 |
12/21 |
57% |
|
|
| Lightweight |
155 |
15/46 |
33% |
|
|
| Featherweight |
145 |
26/58 |
45% |
|
|
| Bantamweight |
135 |
12/24 |
50% |
|
|
| Flyweight |
125 |
10/25 |
40% |
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
| Women's Fights |
|
|
|
|
|
| Bantamweight |
135 |
7/15 |
47% |
|
|
| Strawweight |
115 |
11/13 |
85% |
|
|
|
| Any Finish |
|
|
|
|
|
| Weight class |
lbs |
Fights |
% |
|
|
| Heavyweight |
265 |
3/3 |
100% |
|
|
| Light Heavyweight |
205 |
7/8 |
88% |
|
|
| Middleweight |
185 |
6/16 |
38% |
|
|
| Welterweight |
170 |
9/21 |
43% |
|
|
| Lightweight |
155 |
31/46 |
67% |
|
|
| Featherweight |
145 |
32/58 |
55% |
|
|
| Bantamweight |
135 |
12/24 |
50% |
|
|
| Flyweight |
125 |
15/25 |
60% |
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
| Women's Fights |
|
|
|
|
|
| Bantamweight |
135 |
8/15 |
53% |
|
|
| Strawweight |
115 |
2/13 |
15% |
|
|
|
|
MMA Fight Statistics - Breakdown of all finish types by round, all fights |
Fights:
249
| Round 1 KO |
36 |
14% |
|
|
| Round 1 Sub |
26 |
10% |
|
|
| Round 2 KO |
24 |
10% |
|
|
| Round 2 Sub |
20 |
8% |
|
|
| Round 3 KO |
13 |
5% |
|
|
| Round 3 Sub |
7 |
3% |
|
|
| Round 4 KO |
|
|
|
|
| Round 4 Sub |
1 |
0% |
|
|
| Round 5 KO |
1 |
0% |
|
|
| Round 5 Sub |
|
|
|
|
| 3 Round Decision |
116 |
47% |
|
|
| 5 Round Decision |
4 |
2% |
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
| KOs |
74 |
30% |
|
|
| Subs |
54 |
22% |
|
|
| Decisions |
120 |
48% |
|
|
|
Notes & Donations |
| Althought the stats pages are programmed to update automatically, the base information is all added manually. If you noticed I've missed off a debut, or incorrectly marked a fighter as a debut, please let me know on twitter or facebook.
If these stats have helped you, or if you just appreciate the effort, you're more than welcome to donate. Any small amount is greatly appreciated! :)
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