MMA Handicapper Stats: DFS Model |
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DFS Model: Event by Event Predictions |
The straight picks, parlays and props sections display Winnings / Bets (ROI%)
| Date |
Event |
Bet |
Won |
ROI |
Straight Picks |
Props |
Parlays |
| 18th Dec '21 |
UFC FN |
6 |
-1.6 |
-27% |
-1.6 / 6 (-27%) |
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| 11th Dec '21 |
UFC 269 |
7 |
-0.7 |
-11% |
-0.7 / 7 (-11%) |
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| 4th Dec '21 |
UFC FN |
7 |
-2.4 |
-35% |
-2.4 / 7 (-35%) |
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| 26th Sep '20 |
UFC 253 |
7.5 |
-2.4 |
-32% |
1.1 / 1 (105%) |
-1.5 / 1.5 (-100%) |
-1.9 / 5 (-39%) |
| 25th Jul '20 |
UFC Fight Island 3 |
2 |
2.0 |
100% |
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2.0 / 2 (100%) |
Winning Events: 1 (20%)
Losing Events: 4 (80%)
Average Staked Per Event: 5.90 units
Most Staked On One Event: 7.50 units
Best Event: 2.01 units
Worst Event: -2.42 units
Average Event: -1.03 units
Max Win Streak: Events: 1, Units: 2.01
Max Losing Streak: Events: 4, Units: -7.16 |
DFS Model: Year on Year Profit |
| Year |
Bet |
Won |
ROI |
Straight
Won / Bet (ROI%) |
Prop
Won / Bet (ROI%) |
Parlay
Won / Bet (ROI%) |
Events
Won / Lost
(%) |
Profit
Per Event |
| 2021 |
20 |
-4.8 |
-24% |
-4.8 / 20 (-24%) |
0.0 / 0 (nan%) |
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/ 3 (0%) |
-1.59 |
| 2020 |
9.5 |
-0.4 |
-4% |
1.1 / 1 (105%) |
-1.5 / 1.5 (-100%) |
0.1 / 7 (1%) |
1 / 1 (50%) |
-0.20 |
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DFS Model: Yearly Straight Pick Stats |
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DFS Model: Profit / Loss by Organization |
| Organization |
Bet |
Won |
ROI |
Straight Picks |
Props |
Parlays |
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UFC |
29.5 |
-5.2 |
-17% |
-3.7 / 21 (-18%) |
-1.5 / 1.5 (-100%) |
0.1 / 7 (1%) |
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DFS Model: Straight Pick Stats |
Big favourite means >65% win chance according to bookies. Big underdog is <35% chance.
| |
Picks |
Correct |
% Correct |
Units Bet |
Units Profit |
Profit per Pick |
ROI |
| Big Favorites |
1 (5%) |
1 |
100 % |
1.00 |
0.53 |
0.53 |
53% |
| Slight Favorites |
4 (19%) |
2 |
50 % |
4.00 |
-0.10 |
-0.02 |
-2% |
| Slight Underdogs |
13 (62%) |
4 |
31 % |
13.00 |
-4.02 |
-0.31 |
-31% |
| Big Underdogs |
3 (14%) |
1 |
33 % |
3.00 |
-0.12 |
-0.04 |
-4% |
Betting Stats By Card Position
| |
Picks |
Correct |
% Correct |
Units Bet |
Units Profit |
Profit per Pick |
ROI |
| Main Event |
2 (10%) |
1 |
50 % |
2.00 |
0.26 |
0.13 |
13% |
| Co-Main Event |
2 (10%) |
1 |
50 % |
2.00 |
0.88 |
0.44 |
44% |
| Position 3-5 |
3 (14%) |
3 |
100 % |
3.00 |
2.83 |
0.94 |
94% |
| 6+ (Undercard) |
14 (67%) |
3 |
21 % |
14.00 |
-7.68 |
-0.55 |
-55% |
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DFS Model: Profit by Weight Class |
| |
Picks |
Correct |
% Correct |
Units Bet |
Units Profit |
Profit per Pick |
ROI |
| Heavyweight |
1 (5%) |
|
0 % |
1.00 |
-1.00 |
-1.00 |
-100% |
| Middleweight |
2 (10%) |
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0 % |
2.00 |
-2.00 |
-1.00 |
-100% |
| Welterweight |
4 (19%) |
2 |
50 % |
4.00 |
0.83 |
0.21 |
21% |
| Lightweight |
2 (10%) |
1 |
50 % |
2.00 |
-0.47 |
-0.24 |
-24% |
| Featherweight |
5 (24%) |
1 |
20 % |
5.00 |
-2.95 |
-0.59 |
-59% |
| Bantamweight |
4 (19%) |
3 |
75 % |
4.00 |
2.53 |
0.63 |
63% |
| Flyweight |
2 (10%) |
1 |
50 % |
2.00 |
0.35 |
0.18 |
18% |
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| Women's Fights |
1 (5%) |
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0 % |
1.00 |
-1.00 |
-1.00 |
-100% |
| Featherweight |
1 (5%) |
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0 % |
1.00 |
-1.00 |
-1.00 |
-100% |
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Props & Parlay Section Stats (Individual sections of this handicapper's parlays) |
Straight picks within parlays
| |
Picks |
Correct |
% Correct |
| Big Favorites |
5 (100%) |
4 |
80 % |
| Slight Favorites |
0 (0%) |
0 |
nan % |
| Slight Underdogs |
0 (0%) |
0 |
nan % |
| Big Underdogs |
0 (0%) |
0 |
nan % |
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5 |
4 |
80 % |
Props bets and props within parlays
| |
Picks |
Correct |
% Correct |
| >65% chance |
2 (40%) |
2 |
100 % |
| 50-65% |
0 (0%) |
0 |
nan % |
| 35-50% |
1 (20%) |
0 |
0 % |
| <35% chance |
2 (40%) |
0 |
0 % |
|
5 |
2 |
40 % |
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Prop Bets and Props within Parlays: Bet Types |
| Prop Type |
Picks |
Correct |
% Correct |
Avg
Odds |
Longest
Odds |
Shortest
Odds |
1U Bet (ROI %) |
| Does not go to Decision |
3 (60%) |
2 |
67 % |
1.44 |
2.35 |
1.18 |
-0.6 (-20%) |
| X Wins in Round X |
2 (40%) |
0 |
0 % |
12.42 |
13.50 |
11.50 |
-2.0 (-100%) |
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5 |
2 |
40 % |
2.23 |
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-2.6 (-52%) |
* 1U Bet (ROI %): Many of the picks will have been part of a parlay, however, as a rough guide to value / profitability, this figure supposes that the handicapper put a 1U bet on each of the picks individually, showing the profit / loss they would have made and the ROI %. |
Tail DFS Model's bets |
If you had tailed this handicapper's bets since they started logging their picks with us, it would have affected your betting bank balance as follows...
This is more accurate than simply X units total profit. Under that more basic system, 1 unit is equal to the same amount of theoretical dollars, whether it was the last event or 10 events ago. However, if a handicapper has 10 events profit in a row, their betting bank balance will be significantly larger for the 10th event and 1 unit will equal a LOT more than it did 10 events ago.
| Date |
Event |
Bet |
Won |
ROI |
Fee |
1 unit = |
Start |
End |
| 25th Jul |
UFC Fight Island 3 |
2 |
2.0 |
100% |
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$10.00 |
$1,000.00 |
$1,020.05 |
| 26th Sep |
UFC 253 |
7.5 |
-2.4 |
-32% |
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$10.20 |
$1,020.05 |
$995.60 |
| 4th Dec |
UFC FN |
7 |
-2.4 |
-35% |
$2 |
$9.96 |
$995.60 |
$969.50 |
| 11th Dec |
UFC 269 |
7 |
-0.7 |
-11% |
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$9.70 |
$969.50 |
$962.28 |
| 18th Dec |
UFC FN |
6 |
-1.6 |
-27% |
$2 |
$9.62 |
$962.28 |
$944.94 |
ROI % from starting bank balance: -5.51% (including fees)
*Note - we don't store historical fee amounts, so we assume the fees are the same as the handicapper charges now. |
DFS Model: Last 20 Wins / Losses (Straight Picks) |
Last 20 Wins
Last 20 Losses
* Hedge indicates that this handicapper also had a WINNING bet on the opponent. For example, they may have bet A to win straight up but with a hedge on the other fighter winning by decision. |
DFS Model: Progress Chart |
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