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MMA Handicapper Stats: The Bad Guy

The Bad Guy (TheBadGuy)

MMA Betting Stats Summary

Overall Stats		Straight Fight Picks		Props		Parlays
Right	17 (61%)	Right	17 (61%)	Right	0 (nan%)	Right	0 (nan%)
Wrong	11 (39%)	Wrong	11 (39%)	Wrong	0 (nan%)	Wrong	0 (nan%)
Avg Odds	1.56	Avg Odds	1.56	Avg Odds	nan	Avg Odds	nan
Units Bet	258.0	Units Bet	258.0	Units Bet	0.0	Units Bet	0.0
Avg Bet	9.21	Avg Bet	9.21	Avg Bet	nan	Avg Bet	nan
Units Profit	-14.86	Units Profit	-14.86	Units Profit	0.00	Units Profit	0.00
ROI %	-6%	ROI %	-6%	ROI %	nan%	ROI %	nan%

The Bad Guy: Event by Event Predictions

The straight picks, parlays and props sections display Winnings / Bets (ROI%)

Date	Event	Bet	Won	ROI	Straight Picks	Props	Parlays
30th Oct '21	UFC 267	11	-11.0	-100%	-11.0 / 11 (-100%)
23rd Oct '21	Bellator 269	11	-11.0	-100%	-11.0 / 11 (-100%)
14th Mar '20	UFC Fight Night 169	14	0.9	6%	0.9 / 14 (6%)
8th Mar '20	UFC 248	22	-8.9	-40%	-8.9 / 22 (-40%)
29th Feb '20	UFC Fight Night	22	4.5	20%	4.5 / 22 (20%)
22nd Feb '20	UFC Fight Night 168	11	5.5	50%	5.5 / 11 (50%)
22nd Feb '20	Bellator 240	11	5.8	53%	5.8 / 11 (53%)
9th Feb '20	UFC 247	23	-10.2	-44%	-10.2 / 23 (-44%)
26th Jan '20	Bellator 238	11	4.0	36%	4.0 / 11 (36%)
25th Jan '20	UFC Fight Night 166	11	-11.0	-100%	-11.0 / 11 (-100%)
18th Jan '20	UFC 246	22	-5.8	-26%	-5.8 / 22 (-26%)
1st Jan '20	PFL 2019: Week 10	11	1.8	16%	1.8 / 11 (16%)
29th Dec '19	Bellator 237	16	2.6	16%	2.6 / 16 (16%)
21st Dec '19	UFC Fight Night 165	5	3.2	65%	3.2 / 5 (65%)
15th Dec '19	UFC 245	11	7.6	69%	7.6 / 11 (69%)
7th Dec '19	UFC on ESPN 7	11	6.7	61%	6.7 / 11 (61%)
23rd Nov '19	Bellator London	1	-1.0	-100%	-1.0 / 1 (-100%)
16th Nov '19	UFC Fight Night 164	11	5.9	54%	5.9 / 11 (54%)
9th Nov '19	UFC Fight Night 163	11	7.6	69%	7.6 / 11 (69%)
2nd Nov '19	UFC 244	12	-12.0	-100%	-12.0 / 12 (-100%)

Winning Events: 12 (60%)
Losing Events: 8 (40%)

Average Staked Per Event: 12.90 units
Most Staked On One Event: 23.00 units
Best Event: 7.59 units
Worst Event: -12.00 units
Average Event: -0.74 units

Max Win Streak: Events: 5, Units: 21.84
Max Losing Streak: Events: 2, Units: -22.00

The Bad Guy: Year on Year Profit

Year	Bet	Won	ROI	Straight Won / Bet (ROI%)	Prop Won / Bet (ROI%)	Parlay Won / Bet (ROI%)	Events Won / Lost (%)	Profit Per Event
2021	22	-22.0	-100%	-22.0 / 22 (-100%)			/ 2 (0%)	-11.00
2020	158	-13.5	-9%	-13.5 / 158 (-9%)			6 / 4 (60%)	-1.35
2019	78	20.6	26%	20.6 / 78 (26%)			6 / 2 (75%)	2.58

The Bad Guy: Yearly Straight Pick Stats

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The Bad Guy: Profit / Loss by Organization

Organization	Bet	Won	ROI	Straight Picks	Props	Parlays
UFC	197	-17.0	-9%	-17.0 / 197 (-9%)
Bellator	50	0.4	1%	0.4 / 50 (1%)
PFL	11	1.8	16%	1.8 / 11 (16%)

The Bad Guy: Straight Pick Stats

Big favourite means >65% win chance according to bookies. Big underdog is <35% chance.

	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Units Bet	Units Profit	Profit per Pick	ROI
Big Favorites	15 (54%)	12	80 %	159.00	4.13	0.28	3%
Slight Favorites	9 (32%)	5	56 %	93.00	-12.99	-1.44	-14%
Slight Underdogs	0 (0%)	0	nan %	0.00	0.00	nan	nan%
Big Underdogs	4 (14%)	0	0 %	6.00	-6.00	-1.50	-100%

Betting Stats By Card Position

	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Units Bet	Units Profit	Profit per Pick	ROI
Main Event	5 (18%)	3	60 %	49.00	-13.01	-2.60	-27%
Co-Main Event	3 (11%)	2	67 %	33.00	-7.54	-2.51	-23%
Position 3-5	13 (46%)	8	62 %	109.00	6.40	0.49	6%
6+ (Undercard)	7 (25%)	4	57 %	67.00	-0.71	-0.10	-1%

The Bad Guy: Profit by Weight Class

	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Units Bet	Units Profit	Profit per Pick	ROI
Heavyweight	2 (7%)		0 %	12.00	-12.00	-6.00	-100%
Light Heavy	3 (11%)	1	33 %	25.00	-6.41	-2.14	-26%
Middleweight	1 (4%)	1	100 %	11.00	2.10	2.10	19%
Welterweight	8 (29%)	4	50 %	82.00	-28.78	-3.60	-35%
Lightweight	3 (11%)	2	67 %	23.00	8.10	2.70	35%
Featherweight	4 (14%)	3	75 %	28.00	10.84	2.71	39%
Bantamweight	1 (4%)	1	100 %	11.00	7.59	7.59	69%

Women's Fights	6 (21%)	5	83 %	66.00	3.72	0.62	6%
Featherweight	3 (11%)	3	100 %	33.00	7.39	2.46	22%
Flyweight	2 (7%)	1	50 %	22.00	-9.17	-4.58	-42%
Strawweight	1 (4%)	1	100 %	11.00	5.50	5.50	50%

Props & Parlay Section Stats (Individual sections of this handicapper's parlays)

Straight picks within parlays

	Picks	Correct	% Correct
Big Favorites	0 (nan%)	0	nan %
Slight Favorites	0 (nan%)	0	nan %
Slight Underdogs	0 (nan%)	0	nan %
Big Underdogs	0 (nan%)	0	nan %
	0	0	nan %

Props bets and props within parlays

	Picks	Correct	% Correct
>65% chance	0 (nan%)	0	nan %
50-65%	0 (nan%)	0	nan %
35-50%	0 (nan%)	0	nan %
<35% chance	0 (nan%)	0	nan %
	0	0	nan %

Prop Bets and Props within Parlays: Bet Types

Prop Type	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Avg Odds	Longest Odds	Shortest Odds	1U Bet (ROI %)
	0	0	nan %	nan			0.0 (nan%)

* 1U Bet (ROI %): Many of the picks will have been part of a parlay, however, as a rough guide to value / profitability, this figure supposes that the handicapper put a 1U bet on each of the picks individually, showing the profit / loss they would have made and the ROI %.

Tail The Bad Guy's bets

If you had tailed this handicapper's bets since they started logging their picks with us, it would have affected your betting bank balance as follows...

This is more accurate than simply X units total profit. Under that more basic system, 1 unit is equal to the same amount of theoretical dollars, whether it was the last event or 10 events ago. However, if a handicapper has 10 events profit in a row, their betting bank balance will be significantly larger for the 10th event and 1 unit will equal a LOT more than it did 10 events ago.

Date	Event	Bet	Won	ROI	Fee	1 unit =	Start	End
2nd Nov	UFC 244	12	-12.0	-100%		$10.00	$1,000.00	$880.00
9th Nov	UFC Fight Night 163	11	7.6	69%		$8.80	$880.00	$946.76
16th Nov	UFC Fight Night 164	11	5.9	54%		$9.47	$946.76	$1,003.05
23rd Nov	Bellator London	1	-1.0	-100%		$10.03	$1,003.05	$993.02
7th Dec	UFC on ESPN 7	11	6.7	61%		$9.93	$993.02	$1,059.22
15th Dec	UFC 245	11	7.6	69%		$10.59	$1,059.22	$1,139.58
21st Dec	UFC Fight Night 165	5	3.2	65%		$11.40	$1,139.58	$1,176.34
29th Dec	Bellator 237	16	2.6	16%		$11.76	$1,176.34	$1,206.96
1st Jan	PFL 2019: Week 10	11	1.8	16%		$12.07	$1,206.96	$1,228.20
18th Jan	UFC 246	22	-5.8	-26%		$12.28	$1,228.20	$1,157.43
25th Jan	UFC Fight Night 166	11	-11.0	-100%		$11.57	$1,157.43	$1,030.12
26th Jan	Bellator 238	11	4.0	36%		$10.30	$1,030.12	$1,071.32
9th Feb	UFC 247	23	-10.2	-44%		$10.71	$1,071.32	$962.40
22nd Feb	Bellator 240	11	5.8	53%		$9.62	$962.40	$1,018.12
22nd Feb	UFC Fight Night 168	11	5.5	50%		$10.18	$1,018.12	$1,074.12
29th Feb	UFC Fight Night	22	4.5	20%		$10.74	$1,074.12	$1,121.92
8th Mar	UFC 248	22	-8.9	-40%		$11.22	$1,121.92	$1,022.01
14th Mar	UFC Fight Night 169	14	0.9	6%		$10.22	$1,022.01	$1,030.80
23rd Oct	Bellator 269	11	-11.0	-100%		$10.31	$1,030.80	$917.41
30th Oct	UFC 267	11	-11.0	-100%		$9.17	$917.41	$816.50

ROI % from starting bank balance: -18.35% (including fees)
*Note - we don't store historical fee amounts, so we assume the fees are the same as the handicapper charges now.

The Bad Guy: Last 20 Wins / Losses (Straight Picks)

Last 20 Wins

	Date	Straight Pick	Opponent	Odds	Bet	Result
1.	Mar '20	Renato Moicano	Damir Hadzovic	1.35	11	Sub, R1 (0:44)
2.	Mar '20	Rodolfo Vieira	Saparbek Safarov	1.19	11	Sub, R1 (2:58)
3.	Feb '20	Grant Dawson	Darrick Minner	1.26	11	Sub, R2 (1:38)
4.	Feb '20	Felicia Spencer	Zara Fairn Dos Santos	1.15	11	TKO, R1 (3:37)
5.	Feb '20	Yan Xiaonan	Karolina Kowalkiewicz	1.50	11	U Decision (3 rounds)
6.	Feb '20	Ricky Bandejas	Frans Mlambo	1.53	11	TKO, R2 (1:25)
7.	Feb '20	Valentina Shevchenko	Katlyn Chookagian	1.17	11	TKO, R3 (1:3)
8.	Jan '20	Cristiane Justino	Julia Budd	1.36	11	TKO, R4 (1:14)
9.	Jan '20	Carlos Diego Ferreira	Anthony Pettis	1.48	11	Sub, R2 (1:46)
10.	Dec '19	Michael Page	Shinsho Anzai	1.13	11	TKO, R2 (0:23)
11.	Dec '19	Lorenz Larkin	Keita Nakamura	1.23	5	U Decision (3 rounds)
12.	Jan '20	Kayla Harrison	Larissa Pacheco	1.16	11	U Decision (5 rounds)
13.	Dec '19	Chan Sung Jung	Frankie Edgar	1.65	5	TKO, R1 (3:18)
14.	Dec '19	Marlon Moraes	Jose Aldo	1.69	11	Split Decision (3 rounds)
15.	Dec '19	Tim Means	Thiago Alves	1.61	11	Sub, R1 (2:38)
16.	Nov '19	James Krause	Sergio Moraes	1.54	11	TKO, R3 (4:19)
17.	Nov '19	Magomed Ankalaev	Dalcha Lungiambula	1.69	11	TKO, R3 (0:29)

Last 20 Losses

	Date	Straight Pick	Opponent	Odds	Bet	Result	Hedge?
1.	Oct '21	Jan Blachowicz	Glover Teixeira	1.39	11	Sub, R2 (3:2)	No
2.	Oct '21	Timothy Johnson	Fedor Emelianenko	1.87	11	TKO, R1 (1:40)	No
3.	Mar '20	Johnny Walker	Nikita Krylov	101.01	3	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
4.	Mar '20	Li Jingliang	Neil Magny	1.61	11	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
5.	Feb '20	Ilir Latifi	Derrick Lewis	3.45	1	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
6.	Feb '20	Alex Morono	Kalinn Williams	1.69	11	TKO, R1 (0:27)	No
7.	Jan '20	Rafael dos Anjos	Michael Chiesa	1.53	11	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
8.	Jan '20	Maycee Barber	Roxanne Modafferi	1.19	11	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
9.	Nov '19	Terry Brazier	Soren Bak	3.10	1	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
10.	Nov '19	Makwan Amirkhani	Shane Burgos	3.20	1	TKO, R3 (4:32)	No
11.	Nov '19	Gregor Gillespie	Kevin Lee	1.65	11	TKO, R1 (2:47)	No

* Hedge indicates that this handicapper also had a WINNING bet on the opponent. For example, they may have bet A to win straight up but with a hedge on the other fighter winning by decision.

The Bad Guy: Progress Chart

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