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The Biggest Underdog Winners of 2015 in the UFC

The page is called top 10 underdog winners of 2015 in the UFC but I've made the stats go back as far as November 2014 to give a bit more data (there simply weren't enough fights in the lower weight classes).

Biggest UFC underdog winners by weight class

Overall 2124 fights
Fav Wins: 1369 (64%), Dog Wins: 755 (36%)

  Odds Underdog Winner Odds Opponent Weight Date Method Rnd Time
1. @12.99 Holly Holm @1.07 Ronda Rousey 135 14th Nov KO/TKO 2 0:59
2. @0.00 Mike Wilkinson @0.00 Niklas Backstrom 145 4th Oct KO/TKO 1 1:19
3. @7.69 Frankie Saenz @1.14 Yuri Alcantara 135 22nd Feb Dec 3 5:00
4. @7.14 Maryna Moroz @1.18 Joanne Calderwood 115 11th Apr Sub 1 1:30
5. @7.00 Rose Namajunas @1.20 Joanna Jedrzejczyk 115 4th Nov KO/TKO 1 3:03
6. @6.53 Darren Elkins @1.16 Mirsad Bektic 145 4th Mar KO/TKO 3 3:19
7. @6.41 Leonardo Santos @1.18 Kevin Lee 155 12th Dec KO/TKO 1 3:26
8. @6.40 Michael Bisping @1.19 Luke Rockhold 185 4th Jun KO/TKO 1 3:36
9. @6.05 Eric Spicely @1.17 Thiago Santos 185 24th Sep Sub 1 2:58
10. @6.00 Paul Craig @1.17 Magomed Ankalaev 205 17th Mar Sub 3 4:59
11. @5.80 Bryan Barberena @1.21 Warlley Alves 170 14th May Dec 3 5:00
12. @5.80 John Moraga @1.20 Magomed Bibulatov 125 7th Oct KO/TKO 1 1:38
13. @5.56 Adriano Martins @1.20 Rustam Khabilov 155 22nd Feb Dec 3 5:00
14. @5.50 Kajan Johnson @1.19 Adriano Martins 155 9th Sep KO/TKO 3 0:49
15. @5.49 Urijah Hall @1.20 Gegard Mousasi 185 26th Sep KO/TKO 2 0:25
16. @0.00 Rafael dos Anjos @0.00 Benson Henderson 155 23rd Aug KO/TKO 1 2:31
17. @5.44 Ryan Janes @1.21 Andrew Sanchez 185 2nd Dec KO/TKO 3 0:58
18. @5.25 Nate Diaz @1.24 Michael Johnson 155 19th Dec Dec 3 5:00
19. @0.00 Chris Kelades @0.00 Patrick Holohan 125 4th Oct Dec 3 5:00
20. @5.35 Yuta Sasaki @1.21 Justin Scoggins 125 17th Jun Sub 2 3:19


Heavyweight: 157 fights
Fav Wins: 104 (66%), Dog Wins: 53 (34%)

  Odds Underdog Winner Odds Opponent Date Method Rnd Time
1. @5.26 Fabricio Werdum @1.20 Cain Velasquez 13th Jun Sub 3 2:13
2. @0.00 Andrei Arlovski @0.00 Antonio Silva 13th Sep KO/TKO 1 2:59
3. @4.76 Andrei Arlovski @1.25 Travis Browne 23rd May KO/TKO 1 4:41
4. @4.35 Viktor Pesta @1.27 Konstantin Erokhin 24th Jan Dec 3 5:00
5. @0.00 Ben Rothwell @0.00 Alistair Overeem 5th Sep KO/TKO 1 2:19
6. @4.17 Andrei Arlovski @1.32 Junior Albini 11th Nov Dec 3 5:00
7. @4.15 Adam Wieczorek @1.32 Arjan Bhullar 14th Apr Sub 2 1:59
8. @4.10 Mark Godbeer @1.29 Walt Harris 4th Nov 1 4:27
9. @3.40 Alistair Overeem @1.38 Junior dos Santos 19th Dec KO/TKO 2 4:43
10. @3.80 Derrick Lewis @1.40 Francis Ngannou 7th Jul Dec 3 5:00

 

Light Heavyweight: 154 fights
Fav Wins: 99 (64%), Dog Wins: 55 (36%)

  Odds Underdog Winner Odds Opponent Date Method Rnd Time
1. @6.00 Paul Craig @1.17 Magomed Ankalaev 17th Mar Sub 3 4:59
2. @5.31 Mauricio Rua @1.21 Tyson Pedro 1st Dec KO/TKO 3 0:43
3. @5.00 Volkan Oezdemir @1.25 Misha Cirkunov 28th May KO/TKO 1 0:29
4. @4.35 Gian Villante @1.28 Corey Anderson 18th Apr KO/TKO 3 4:18
5. @4.20 Michal Oleksiejczuk @1.33 Khalil Rountree 31st Dec Dec 3 5:00
6. @4.20 Jan Blachowicz @1.56 Jimi Manuwa 17th Mar Dec 3 5:00
7. @4.08 Rogerio Nogueira @1.30 Sam Alvey 22nd Sep KO/TKO 2 0:35
8. @3.75 Volkan Oezdemir @1.33 Ovince St Preux 4th Feb Dec 3 5:00
9. @3.70 Anthony Johnson @1.35 Alexander Gustafsson 24th Jan KO/TKO 1 2:15
10. @0.00 Jan Blachowicz @0.00 Ilir Latifi 4th Oct KO/TKO 1 1:58

Middleweight: 235 fights
Fav Wins: 141 (60%), Dog Wins: 94 (40%)

  Odds Underdog Winner Odds Opponent Date Method Rnd Time
1. @6.40 Michael Bisping @1.19 Luke Rockhold 4th Jun KO/TKO 1 3:36
2. @6.05 Eric Spicely @1.17 Thiago Santos 24th Sep Sub 1 2:58
3. @5.49 Urijah Hall @1.20 Gegard Mousasi 26th Sep KO/TKO 2 0:25
4. @5.44 Ryan Janes @1.21 Andrew Sanchez 2nd Dec KO/TKO 3 0:58
5. @5.00 Chris Dempsey @1.23 Eddie Gordon 18th Apr Dec 3 5:00
6. @5.00 Daniel Kelly @1.25 Antonio Carlos Junior 19th Mar KO/TKO 3 1:36
7. @4.65 Nate Marquardt @1.26 C.B. Dollaway 19th Dec KO/TKO 2 0:28
8. @4.35 Daniel Kelly @1.49 Rashad Evans 4th Mar Dec 3 5:00
9. @4.35 Rafael Natal @1.27 Urijah Hall 23rd May Dec 3 5:00
10. @4.17 Sam Alvey @1.32 Cezar Ferreira 22nd Feb KO/TKO 1 3:34

Welterweight: 367 fights
Fav Wins: 231 (63%), Dog Wins: 136 (37%)

  Odds Underdog Winner Odds Opponent Date Method Rnd Time
1. @5.80 Bryan Barberena @1.21 Warlley Alves 14th May Dec 3 5:00
2. @0.00 Kiichi Kunimoto @0.00 Daniel Sarafian 14th Jun Sub 1 2:52
3. @5.00 Nate Diaz @1.25 Conor McGregor 5th Mar Sub 2 4:12
4. @4.75 Max Griffin @1.36 Mike Perry 24th Feb Dec 3 5:00
5. @4.75 Claudio Silva @1.29 Nordine Taleb 27th May Sub 1 4:31
6. @4.35 Matt Dwyer @1.27 William Macario 22nd Feb KO/TKO 1 3:14
7. @4.30 Dhiego Lima @1.27 Chad Laprise 8th Dec KO/TKO 1 1:37
8. @0.00 Rick Story @0.00 Gunnar Nelson 4th Oct Dec 5 5:00
9. @4.00 James Krause @1.31 Warlley Alves 25th Aug KO/TKO 2 2:28
10. @3.80 Siyar Bahadurzada @1.33 Brandon Thatch 5th Mar Sub 3 4:11

Lightweight: 400 fights
Fav Wins: 270 (68%), Dog Wins: 130 (33%)

  Odds Underdog Winner Odds Opponent Date Method Rnd Time
1. @6.41 Leonardo Santos @1.18 Kevin Lee 12th Dec KO/TKO 1 3:26
2. @5.56 Adriano Martins @1.20 Rustam Khabilov 22nd Feb Dec 3 5:00
3. @5.50 Kajan Johnson @1.19 Adriano Martins 9th Sep KO/TKO 3 0:49
4. @0.00 Rafael dos Anjos @0.00 Benson Henderson 23rd Aug KO/TKO 1 2:31
5. @5.25 Nate Diaz @1.24 Michael Johnson 19th Dec Dec 3 5:00
6. @5.05 Nik Lentz @1.24 Will Brooks 18th Nov Sub 2 2:05
7. @5.00 Andrew Holbrook @1.22 Jake Matthews 26th Nov Dec 3 5:00
8. @5.00 Don Madge @1.23 Te Edwards 27th Oct KO/TKO 2 0:14
9. @4.90 Rafael dos Anjos @1.27 Anthony Pettis 14th Mar Dec 5 5:00
10. @4.81 Ross Pearson @1.23 Paul Felder 5th Sep Dec 3 5:00

Featherweight: 244 fights
Fav Wins: 157 (64%), Dog Wins: 87 (36%)

  Odds Underdog Winner Odds Opponent Date Method Rnd Time
1. @0.00 Mike Wilkinson @0.00 Niklas Backstrom 4th Oct KO/TKO 1 1:19
2. @6.53 Darren Elkins @1.16 Mirsad Bektic 4th Mar KO/TKO 3 3:19
3. @4.30 Calvin Kattar @1.29 Andre Fili 29th Jul Dec 3 5:00
4. @4.05 Diego Rivas @1.33 Noad Lahat 6th Feb KO/TKO 2 0:23
5. @4.00 Gray Maynard @1.33 Teruto Ishihara 7th Jul Dec 3 5:00
6. @3.75 Gabriel Benitez @1.34 Jason Knight 9th Dec Dec 3 5:00
7. @3.75 Jordan Rinaldi @1.36 Jason Knight 3rd Nov Dec 3 5:00
8. @3.70 Godofredo Pepey @1.33 Andre Fili 21st Mar Sub 1 3:14
9. @3.65 Rick Glenn @1.40 Gavin Tucker 9th Sep Dec 3 5:00
10. @3.65 Humberto Bandenay @1.35 Martin Bravo 5th Aug KO/TKO 1 0:26

Bantamweight (Men): 194 fights
Fav Wins: 124 (64%), Dog Wins: 70 (36%)

  Odds Underdog Winner Odds Opponent Date Method Rnd Time
1. @7.69 Frankie Saenz @1.14 Yuri Alcantara 22nd Feb Dec 3 5:00
2. @5.00 Leandro Issa @1.22 Yuta Sasaki 20th Dec Sub 2 4:13
3. @4.44 Jerrod Sanders @1.28 Russell Doane 12th Jul Dec 3 5:00
4. @4.00 Guido Cannetti @1.33 Hugo Viana 1st Aug Dec 3 5:00
5. @4.00 Bryan Caraway @1.34 Aljamain Sterling 29th May Dec 3 5:00
6. @3.95 Andre Soukhamthath @1.40 Luke Sanders 9th Dec KO/TKO 2 1:30
7. @3.90 Brian Kelleher @1.31 Yuri Alcantara 3rd Jun Sub 1 1:48
8. @3.70 Reginaldo Vieira @1.34 Dileno Lopes 1st Aug Dec 3 5:00
9. @0.00 Masanori Kanehara @0.00 Alex Caceres 20th Sep Dec 3 5:00
10. @3.57 Taylor Lapilus @1.41 Yuta Sasaki 20th Jun KO/TKO 2 1:26

Flyweight: 161 fights
Fav Wins: 103 (64%), Dog Wins: 58 (36%)

  Odds Underdog Winner Odds Opponent Date Method Rnd Time
1. @5.80 John Moraga @1.20 Magomed Bibulatov 7th Oct KO/TKO 1 1:38
2. @0.00 Chris Kelades @0.00 Patrick Holohan 4th Oct Dec 3 5:00
3. @5.35 Yuta Sasaki @1.21 Justin Scoggins 17th Jun Sub 2 3:19
4. @5.35 Ryan Benoit @1.22 Sergio Pettis 14th Mar KO/TKO 2 1:34
5. @5.00 Henry Cejudo @1.22 Demetrious Johnson 4th Aug Dec 5 5:00
6. @4.90 Brandon Moreno @1.23 Louis Smolka 1st Oct Sub 1 2:23
7. @4.50 Yanan Wu @1.30 Lauren Mueller 24th Nov Sub 1 4:00
8. @0.00 Jussier Formiga @0.00 Zach Makovsky 16th Aug Dec 3 5:00
9. @0.00 Dustin Ortiz @0.00 Justin Scoggins 6th Jul Dec 3 5:00
10. @3.45 Zhuikui Yao @1.43 Nolan Ticman 16th May Dec 3 5:00

Bantamweight (Women): 82 fights
Fav Wins: 49 (60%), Dog Wins: 33 (40%)

  Odds Underdog Winner Odds Opponent Date Method Rnd Time
1. @12.99 Holly Holm @1.07 Ronda Rousey 14th Nov KO/TKO 2 0:59
2. @3.65 Leslie Smith @1.34 Irene Aldana 17th Dec Dec 3 5:00
3. @3.50 Miesha Tate @1.38 Holly Holm 5th Mar Sub 5 3:30
4. @3.40 Sarah Moras @1.38 Ashlee Evans-Smith 9th Sep Sub 1 2:51
5. @3.34 Amanda Nunes @1.40 Sara McMann 8th Aug Sub 1 2:53
6. @3.33 Marion Reneau @1.41 Jessica Andrade 22nd Feb Sub 1 1:54
7. @3.25 Amanda Nunes @1.41 Miesha Tate 9th Jul Sub 1 3:16
8. @3.25 Valentina Shevchenko @1.50 Holly Holm 23rd Jul Dec 5 5:00
9. @0.00 Sarah Moras @0.00 Alexis Dufresne 6th Jul Dec 3 5:00
10. @3.00 Raquel Pennington @1.50 Jessica Andrade 5th Sep Sub 2 4:58

Strawweight (Women): 130 fights
Fav Wins: 91 (70%), Dog Wins: 39 (30%)

  Odds Underdog Winner Odds Opponent Date Method Rnd Time
1. @7.14 Maryna Moroz @1.18 Joanne Calderwood 11th Apr Sub 1 1:30
2. @7.00 Rose Namajunas @1.20 Joanna Jedrzejczyk 4th Nov KO/TKO 1 3:03
3. @3.80 Felice Herrig @1.32 Alexa Grasso 4th Feb Dec 3 5:00
4. @3.70 Nina Ansaroff @1.36 Claudia Gadelha 8th Dec Dec 3 5:00
5. @3.50 Randa Markos @1.37 Carla Esparza 19th Feb Dec 3 5:00
6. @3.48 Jessica Andrade @1.38 Claudia Gadelha 22nd Sep Dec 3 5:00
7. @3.45 Carla Esparza @1.50 Cynthia Calvillo 31st Dec Dec 3 5:00
8. @3.23 Joanna Jedrzejczyk @1.43 Claudia Gadelha 13th Dec Dec 3 5:00
9. @3.13 Alex Chambers @1.45 Kailin Curran 9th May Sub 3 3:15
10. @3.05 Valerie Letourneau @1.48 Maryna Moroz 23rd Aug Dec 3 5:00

 

Analysis of UFC underdog winners for 2015

Note written 5th August. We certainly need more fights before we can say for certain but it appears there's a general trend towards more underdog winners at higher weight classes. It's also a surprise to me how few big underdogs have won. We've already got a Betting underdogs vs favourites in MMA page, but clearly this needs some more filters adding because betting slight underdogs would appear to be the best bet.

It also appears that in the two most popular divisions (Lightweight and Welterweight) there are less upsets. Perhaps this is because matchmaking's a little easier due to the higher volume of fighters or perhaps the bookmakers and punters are just a little more familiar with the fighters involved. However, there's also a low number of upsets in women's MMA, which is a little thin on the ground, so honestly, you could be looking for reasoning behind these statistical patterns for a while! It will be very interesting to see how we progress over the rest of 2015, in the UFC!

 
 
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