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The Biggest Underdog Winners of 2015 in the UFC

The page is called top 10 underdog winners of 2015 in the UFC but I've made the stats go back as far as November 2014 to give a bit more data (there simply weren't enough fights in the lower weight classes).

Biggest UFC underdog winners by weight class

Overall 3984 fights
Fav Wins: 2564 (64%), Dog Wins: 1420 (36%)

  Odds Underdog Winner Odds Opponent Weight Date Method Rnd Time
1. @12.99 Holly Holm @1.07 Ronda Rousey 135 14th Nov KO/TKO 2 0:59
2. @10.71 Shana Dobson @1.10 Mariya Agapova 125 22nd Aug KO/TKO 2 1:38
3. @10.24 Trevin Jones @1.18 Timur Valiev 145 22nd Aug KO/TKO 2 1:59
4. @9.00 Mike Jackson @1.12 Dean Barry 170 23rd Apr 1 3:52
5. @8.75 Khama Worthy @1.12 Devonte Smith 155 17th Aug KO/TKO 1 4:15
6. @8.50 Julianna Pena @1.11 Amanda Nunes 135 11th Dec Sub 2 3:26
7. @inf Mike Wilkinson @inf Niklas Backstrom 145 4th Oct KO/TKO 1 1:19
8. @8.02 Roxanne Modafferi @1.12 Maycee Barber 125 18th Jan Dec 3 5:00
9. @7.69 Frankie Saenz @1.14 Yuri Alcantara 135 22nd Feb Dec 3 5:00
10. @7.14 Maryna Moroz @1.18 Joanne Wood 115 11th Apr Sub 1 1:30
11. @7.00 Rose Namajunas @1.20 Joanna Jedrzejczyk 115 4th Nov KO/TKO 1 3:03
12. @6.53 Darren Elkins @1.16 Mirsad Bektic 145 4th Mar KO/TKO 3 3:19
13. @6.50 Gerald Meerschaert @1.17 Makhmud Muradov 185 28th Aug Sub 2 1:49
14. @6.41 Leonardo Santos @1.18 Kevin Lee 155 12th Dec KO/TKO 1 3:26
15. @6.40 Michael Bisping @1.19 Luke Rockhold 185 4th Jun KO/TKO 1 3:36
16. @6.05 Eric Spicely @1.17 Thiago Santos 185 24th Sep Sub 1 2:58
17. @6.00 Paul Craig @1.17 Magomed Ankalaev 205 17th Mar Sub 3 4:59
18. @5.92 Chance Rencountre @1.18 Ismail Naurdiev 170 6th Jul Dec 3 5:00
19. @5.80 Bryan Barberena @1.21 Warlley Alves 170 14th May Dec 3 5:00
20. @5.80 John Moraga @1.20 Magomed Bibulatov 125 7th Oct KO/TKO 1 1:38


Heavyweight: 304 fights
Fav Wins: 200 (66%), Dog Wins: 104 (34%)

  Odds Underdog Winner Odds Opponent Date Method Rnd Time
1. @5.26 Fabricio Werdum @1.20 Cain Velasquez 13th Jun Sub 3 2:13
2. @5.20 Chris Barnett @1.22 Jake Collier 10th Sep KO/TKO 2 2:24
3. @5.00 Allen Crowder @1.22 Greg Hardy 19th Jan 2 2:28
4. @inf Andrei Arlovski @inf Antonio Silva 13th Sep KO/TKO 1 2:59
5. @4.76 Andrei Arlovski @1.25 Travis Browne 23rd May KO/TKO 1 4:41
6. @4.36 Derrick Lewis @1.26 Curtis Blaydes 20th Feb KO/TKO 2 1:26
7. @4.35 Viktor Pesta @1.27 Konstantin Erokhin 24th Jan Dec 3 5:00
8. @inf Ben Rothwell @inf Alistair Overeem 5th Sep KO/TKO 1 2:19
9. @4.17 Andrei Arlovski @1.32 Junior Albini 11th Nov Dec 3 5:00
10. @4.15 Adam Wieczorek @1.32 Arjan Bhullar 14th Apr Sub 2 1:59

 

Light Heavyweight: 297 fights
Fav Wins: 190 (64%), Dog Wins: 107 (36%)

  Odds Underdog Winner Odds Opponent Date Method Rnd Time
1. @6.00 Paul Craig @1.17 Magomed Ankalaev 17th Mar Sub 3 4:59
2. @5.31 Mauricio Rua @1.21 Tyson Pedro 1st Dec KO/TKO 3 0:43
3. @5.00 Volkan Oezdemir @1.25 Misha Cirkunov 28th May KO/TKO 1 0:29
4. @4.60 John Allan @1.26 Mike Rodriguez 13th Jul Dec 3 5:00
5. @4.35 Gian Villante @1.28 Corey Anderson 18th Apr KO/TKO 3 4:18
6. @4.20 Michal Oleksiejczuk @1.33 Khalil Rountree 31st Dec Dec 3 5:00
7. @4.20 Jan Blachowicz @1.56 Jimi Manuwa 17th Mar Dec 3 5:00
8. @4.08 Rogerio Nogueira @1.30 Sam Alvey 22nd Sep KO/TKO 2 0:35
9. @3.85 Anthony Smith @1.34 Alexander Gustafsson 1st Jun Sub 4 2:38
10. @3.75 Volkan Oezdemir @1.33 Ovince St Preux 4th Feb Dec 3 5:00

Middleweight: 440 fights
Fav Wins: 270 (61%), Dog Wins: 170 (39%)

  Odds Underdog Winner Odds Opponent Date Method Rnd Time
1. @6.50 Gerald Meerschaert @1.17 Makhmud Muradov 28th Aug Sub 2 1:49
2. @6.40 Michael Bisping @1.19 Luke Rockhold 4th Jun KO/TKO 1 3:36
3. @6.05 Eric Spicely @1.17 Thiago Santos 24th Sep Sub 1 2:58
4. @5.60 Alex Pereira @1.48 Israel Adesanya 12th Nov KO/TKO 5 2:01
5. @5.49 Urijah Hall @1.20 Gegard Mousasi 26th Sep KO/TKO 2 0:25
6. @5.44 Ryan Janes @1.21 Andrew Sanchez 2nd Dec KO/TKO 3 0:58
7. @5.00 Chris Dempsey @1.23 Eddie Gordon 18th Apr Dec 3 5:00
8. @5.00 Daniel Kelly @1.25 Antonio Carlos Junior 19th Mar KO/TKO 3 1:36
9. @4.70 Andre Petroski @1.29 Nick Maximov 14th May Sub 1 1:16
10. @4.65 Nate Marquardt @1.26 C.B. Dollaway 19th Dec KO/TKO 2 0:28

Welterweight: 622 fights
Fav Wins: 394 (63%), Dog Wins: 228 (37%)

  Odds Underdog Winner Odds Opponent Date Method Rnd Time
1. @9.00 Mike Jackson @1.12 Dean Barry 23rd Apr 1 3:52
2. @5.92 Chance Rencountre @1.18 Ismail Naurdiev 6th Jul Dec 3 5:00
3. @5.80 Bryan Barberena @1.21 Warlley Alves 14th May Dec 3 5:00
4. @inf Kiichi Kunimoto @inf Daniel Sarafian 14th Jun Sub 1 2:52
5. @5.00 Nate Diaz @1.25 Conor McGregor 5th Mar Sub 2 4:12
6. @5.00 Ismail Naurdiev @1.25 Michel Prazeres 23rd Feb Dec 3 5:00
7. @5.00 Tristan Connelly @1.23 Michel Pereira 14th Sep Dec 3 5:00
8. @4.75 Max Griffin @1.36 Mike Perry 24th Feb Dec 3 5:00
9. @4.75 Claudio Silva @1.29 Nordine Taleb 27th May Sub 1 4:31
10. @4.55 Anthony Pettis @1.33 Stephen Thompson 23rd Mar KO/TKO 2 4:55

Lightweight: 646 fights
Fav Wins: 436 (67%), Dog Wins: 210 (33%)

  Odds Underdog Winner Odds Opponent Date Method Rnd Time
1. @8.75 Khama Worthy @1.12 Devonte Smith 17th Aug KO/TKO 1 4:15
2. @6.41 Leonardo Santos @1.18 Kevin Lee 12th Dec KO/TKO 1 3:26
3. @5.56 Adriano Martins @1.20 Rustam Khabilov 22nd Feb Dec 3 5:00
4. @5.50 Kajan Johnson @1.19 Adriano Martins 9th Sep KO/TKO 3 0:49
5. @inf Rafael dos Anjos @inf Benson Henderson 23rd Aug KO/TKO 1 2:31
6. @5.25 Nate Diaz @1.24 Michael Johnson 19th Dec Dec 3 5:00
7. @5.35 Julian Erosa @1.20 Sean Woodson 27th Jun Sub 3 2:44
8. @5.05 Nik Lentz @1.24 Will Brooks 18th Nov Sub 2 2:05
9. @5.00 Andrew Holbrook @1.22 Jake Matthews 26th Nov Dec 3 5:00
10. @5.00 Don Madge @1.23 Te Edwards 27th Oct KO/TKO 2 0:14

Featherweight: 484 fights
Fav Wins: 309 (64%), Dog Wins: 175 (36%)

  Odds Underdog Winner Odds Opponent Date Method Rnd Time
1. @10.24 Trevin Jones @1.18 Timur Valiev 22nd Aug KO/TKO 2 1:59
2. @inf Mike Wilkinson @inf Niklas Backstrom 4th Oct KO/TKO 1 1:19
3. @6.53 Darren Elkins @1.16 Mirsad Bektic 4th Mar KO/TKO 3 3:19
4. @4.80 Charles Jourdain @1.30 Doo Ho Choi 21st Dec KO/TKO 2 4:32
5. @4.30 Calvin Kattar @1.29 Andre Fili 29th Jul Dec 3 5:00
6. @2.20 Mike Grundy @1.79 Nad Narimani 16th Mar KO/TKO 2 4:42
7. @4.10 Nate Landwehr @1.30 Ludovit Klein 16th Oct Sub 3 2:22
8. @4.05 Damon Jackson @1.30 Mirsad Bektic 19th Sep Sub 3 1:21
9. @4.05 Diego Rivas @1.33 Noad Lahat 6th Feb KO/TKO 2 0:23
10. @4.00 Gray Maynard @1.33 Teruto Ishihara 7th Jul Dec 3 5:00

Bantamweight (Men): 412 fights
Fav Wins: 266 (65%), Dog Wins: 146 (35%)

  Odds Underdog Winner Odds Opponent Date Method Rnd Time
1. @7.69 Frankie Saenz @1.14 Yuri Alcantara 22nd Feb Dec 3 5:00
2. @5.25 Victor Henry @1.22 Raoni Barcelos 22nd Jan Dec 3 5:00
3. @5.00 Leandro Issa @1.22 Yuta Sasaki 20th Dec Sub 2 4:13
4. @4.50 Aljamain Sterling @1.27 Petr Yan 9th Apr Dec 5 5:00
5. @4.50 Raphael Assuncao @1.26 Victor Henry 15th Oct Dec 3 5:00
6. @4.44 Jerrod Sanders @1.28 Russell Doane 12th Jul Dec 3 5:00
7. @4.20 Urijah Faber @1.40 Ricky Simon 13th Jul KO/TKO 1 0:46
8. @4.15 Lina Lansberg @1.33 Tonya Evinger 1st Jun Dec 3 5:00
9. @4.05 Felipe Colares @1.30 Domingo Pilarte 20th Jul Dec 3 5:00
10. @4.00 Bryan Caraway @1.34 Aljamain Sterling 29th May Dec 3 5:00

Flyweight: 375 fights
Fav Wins: 240 (64%), Dog Wins: 135 (36%)

  Odds Underdog Winner Odds Opponent Date Method Rnd Time
1. @10.71 Shana Dobson @1.10 Mariya Agapova 22nd Aug KO/TKO 2 1:38
2. @8.02 Roxanne Modafferi @1.12 Maycee Barber 18th Jan Dec 3 5:00
3. @5.80 John Moraga @1.20 Magomed Bibulatov 7th Oct KO/TKO 1 1:38
4. @inf Chris Kelades @inf Patrick Holohan 4th Oct Dec 3 5:00
5. @5.35 Yuta Sasaki @1.21 Justin Scoggins 17th Jun Sub 2 3:19
6. @5.35 Ryan Benoit @1.22 Sergio Pettis 14th Mar KO/TKO 2 1:34
7. @5.00 Henry Cejudo @1.22 Demetrious Johnson 4th Aug Dec 5 5:00
8. @4.90 Brandon Moreno @1.23 Louis Smolka 1st Oct Sub 1 2:23
9. @4.89 Rogerio Bontorin @1.22 Magomed Bibulatov 2nd Feb Dec 3 5:00
10. @4.80 Carlos Vergara @1.37 Kleydson Rodrigues 7th May Dec 3 5:00

Bantamweight (Women): 151 fights
Fav Wins: 94 (62%), Dog Wins: 57 (38%)

  Odds Underdog Winner Odds Opponent Date Method Rnd Time
1. @12.99 Holly Holm @1.07 Ronda Rousey 14th Nov KO/TKO 2 0:59
2. @8.50 Julianna Pena @1.11 Amanda Nunes 11th Dec Sub 2 3:26
3. @4.70 Lina Lansberg @1.25 Macy Chiasson 28th Sep Dec 3 5:00
4. @3.79 Bethe Correia @2.00 Sijara Eubanks 21st Sep Dec 3 5:00
5. @3.65 Leslie Smith @1.34 Irene Aldana 17th Dec Dec 3 5:00
6. @3.51 Viviane Araujo @1.37 Talita Bernardo 11th May KO/TKO 3 0:48
7. @3.50 Sijara Eubanks @1.36 Julia Avila 12th Sep Dec 3 5:00
8. @3.50 Miesha Tate @1.38 Holly Holm 5th Mar Sub 5 3:30
9. @3.40 Sarah Moras @1.38 Ashlee Evans-Smith 9th Sep Sub 1 2:51
10. @3.34 Amanda Nunes @1.40 Sara McMann 8th Aug Sub 1 2:53

Strawweight (Women): 253 fights
Fav Wins: 165 (65%), Dog Wins: 88 (35%)

  Odds Underdog Winner Odds Opponent Date Method Rnd Time
1. @7.14 Maryna Moroz @1.18 Joanne Wood 11th Apr Sub 1 1:30
2. @7.00 Rose Namajunas @1.20 Joanna Jedrzejczyk 4th Nov KO/TKO 1 3:03
3. @4.00 Montserrat Ruiz @1.29 Cheyanne Buys 20th Mar Dec 3 5:00
4. @4.00 Angela Hill @1.30 Lupita Godinez 13th Aug Dec 3 5:00
5. @3.85 Elise Reed @1.36 Cory McKenna 19th Mar Dec 3 5:00
6. @3.80 Felice Herrig @1.32 Alexa Grasso 4th Feb Dec 3 5:00
7. @3.70 Nina Nunes @1.36 Claudia Gadelha 8th Dec Dec 3 5:00
8. @3.60 Marina Alcalde Rodriguez @1.35 Amanda Ribas 24th Jan KO/TKO 2 0:54
9. @3.60 Maria Oliveira @1.39 Gloria de Paula 18th Jun Dec 3 5:00
10. @3.50 Hannah Cifers @1.36 Polyana Viana 2nd Mar Dec 3 5:00

 

Analysis of UFC underdog winners for 2015

Note written 5th August. We certainly need more fights before we can say for certain but it appears there's a general trend towards more underdog winners at higher weight classes. It's also a surprise to me how few big underdogs have won. We've already got a Betting underdogs vs favourites in MMA page, but clearly this needs some more filters adding because betting slight underdogs would appear to be the best bet.

It also appears that in the two most popular divisions (Lightweight and Welterweight) there are less upsets. Perhaps this is because matchmaking's a little easier due to the higher volume of fighters or perhaps the bookmakers and punters are just a little more familiar with the fighters involved. However, there's also a low number of upsets in women's MMA, which is a little thin on the ground, so honestly, you could be looking for reasoning behind these statistical patterns for a while! It will be very interesting to see how we progress over the rest of 2015, in the UFC!

 
 
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