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Total MMA Handicappers: 5243 Profitable MMA Handicappers: 1985 |
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| In Depth MMA Stats | Favorites vs Dogs | Stance | Age | UFC Debut Win % | Over / Under |
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| Odds | Underdog Winner | Odds | Opponent | Date | Method | Rnd | Time | |
| 1. | @5.26 | Fabricio Werdum | @1.20 | Cain Velasquez | 13th Jun | Sub | 3 | 2:13 |
| 2. | @5.20 | Chris Barnett | @1.22 | Jake Collier | 10th Sep | KO/TKO | 2 | 2:24 |
| 3. | @5.00 | Allen Crowder | @1.22 | Greg Hardy | 19th Jan | 2 | 2:28 | |
| 4. | @inf | Andrei Arlovski | @inf | Antonio Silva | 13th Sep | KO/TKO | 1 | 2:59 |
| 5. | @4.76 | Andrei Arlovski | @1.25 | Travis Browne | 23rd May | KO/TKO | 1 | 4:41 |
| 6. | @4.36 | Derrick Lewis | @1.26 | Curtis Blaydes | 20th Feb | KO/TKO | 2 | 1:26 |
| 7. | @4.35 | Viktor Pesta | @1.27 | Konstantin Erokhin | 24th Jan | Dec | 3 | 5:00 |
| 8. | @inf | Ben Rothwell | @inf | Alistair Overeem | 5th Sep | KO/TKO | 1 | 2:19 |
| 9. | @4.17 | Andrei Arlovski | @1.32 | Junior Albini | 11th Nov | Dec | 3 | 5:00 |
| 10. | @4.15 | Adam Wieczorek | @1.32 | Arjan Bhullar | 14th Apr | Sub | 2 | 1:59 |
Light Heavyweight: 311 fights
Fav Wins: 198 (64%), Dog Wins: 113 (36%)
| Odds | Underdog Winner | Odds | Opponent | Date | Method | Rnd | Time | |
| 1. | @6.00 | Paul Craig | @1.17 | Magomed Ankalaev | 17th Mar | Sub | 3 | 4:59 |
| 2. | @5.31 | Mauricio Rua | @1.21 | Tyson Pedro | 1st Dec | KO/TKO | 3 | 0:43 |
| 3. | @5.00 | Volkan Oezdemir | @1.25 | Misha Cirkunov | 28th May | KO/TKO | 1 | 0:29 |
| 4. | @4.60 | John Allan | @1.26 | Mike Rodriguez | 13th Jul | Dec | 3 | 5:00 |
| 5. | @4.35 | Gian Villante | @1.28 | Corey Anderson | 18th Apr | KO/TKO | 3 | 4:18 |
| 6. | @4.20 | Michal Oleksiejczuk | @1.33 | Khalil Rountree | 31st Dec | Dec | 3 | 5:00 |
| 7. | @4.20 | Jan Blachowicz | @1.56 | Jimi Manuwa | 17th Mar | Dec | 3 | 5:00 |
| 8. | @4.08 | Rogerio Nogueira | @1.30 | Sam Alvey | 22nd Sep | KO/TKO | 2 | 0:35 |
| 9. | @3.85 | Anthony Smith | @1.34 | Alexander Gustafsson | 1st Jun | Sub | 4 | 2:38 |
| 10. | @3.75 | Volkan Oezdemir | @1.33 | Ovince St Preux | 4th Feb | Dec | 3 | 5:00 |
Middleweight:
461 fights
Fav Wins: 282 (61%), Dog Wins: 179 (39%)
| Odds | Underdog Winner | Odds | Opponent | Date | Method | Rnd | Time | |
| 1. | @6.50 | Gerald Meerschaert | @1.17 | Makhmud Muradov | 28th Aug | Sub | 2 | 1:49 |
| 2. | @6.40 | Michael Bisping | @1.19 | Luke Rockhold | 4th Jun | KO/TKO | 1 | 3:36 |
| 3. | @6.05 | Eric Spicely | @1.17 | Thiago Santos | 24th Sep | Sub | 1 | 2:58 |
| 4. | @5.60 | Alex Pereira | @1.48 | Israel Adesanya | 12th Nov | KO/TKO | 5 | 2:01 |
| 5. | @5.49 | Urijah Hall | @1.20 | Gegard Mousasi | 26th Sep | KO/TKO | 2 | 0:25 |
| 6. | @5.44 | Ryan Janes | @1.21 | Andrew Sanchez | 2nd Dec | KO/TKO | 3 | 0:58 |
| 7. | @5.00 | Chris Dempsey | @1.23 | Eddie Gordon | 18th Apr | Dec | 3 | 5:00 |
| 8. | @5.00 | Daniel Kelly | @1.25 | Antonio Carlos Junior | 19th Mar | KO/TKO | 3 | 1:36 |
| 9. | @4.70 | Andre Petroski | @1.29 | Nick Maximov | 14th May | Sub | 1 | 1:16 |
| 10. | @4.65 | Nate Marquardt | @1.26 | C.B. Dollaway | 19th Dec | KO/TKO | 2 | 0:28 |
Welterweight:
643 fights
Fav Wins: 408 (63%), Dog Wins: 235 (37%)
| Odds | Underdog Winner | Odds | Opponent | Date | Method | Rnd | Time | |
| 1. | @9.00 | Mike Jackson | @1.12 | Dean Barry | 23rd Apr | 1 | 3:52 | |
| 2. | @5.92 | Chance Rencountre | @1.18 | Ismail Naurdiev | 6th Jul | Dec | 3 | 5:00 |
| 3. | @5.80 | Bryan Barberena | @1.21 | Warlley Alves | 14th May | Dec | 3 | 5:00 |
| 4. | @inf | Kiichi Kunimoto | @inf | Daniel Sarafian | 14th Jun | Sub | 1 | 2:52 |
| 5. | @5.00 | Nate Diaz | @1.25 | Conor McGregor | 5th Mar | Sub | 2 | 4:12 |
| 6. | @5.00 | Ismail Naurdiev | @1.25 | Michel Prazeres | 23rd Feb | Dec | 3 | 5:00 |
| 7. | @5.00 | Tristan Connelly | @1.23 | Michel Pereira | 14th Sep | Dec | 3 | 5:00 |
| 8. | @4.75 | Max Griffin | @1.36 | Mike Perry | 24th Feb | Dec | 3 | 5:00 |
| 9. | @4.75 | Claudio Silva | @1.29 | Nordine Taleb | 27th May | Sub | 1 | 4:31 |
| 10. | @4.55 | Kalinn Williams | @1.29 | Alex Morono | 9th Feb | KO/TKO | 1 | 0:27 |
Lightweight:
670 fights
Fav Wins: 453 (68%), Dog Wins: 217 (32%)
| Odds | Underdog Winner | Odds | Opponent | Date | Method | Rnd | Time | |
| 1. | @8.75 | Khama Worthy | @1.12 | Devonte Smith | 17th Aug | KO/TKO | 1 | 4:15 |
| 2. | @6.41 | Leonardo Santos | @1.18 | Kevin Lee | 12th Dec | KO/TKO | 1 | 3:26 |
| 3. | @6.00 | Elves Brenner | @1.18 | Zubaira Tukhugov | 11th Feb | Dec | 3 | 5:00 |
| 4. | @5.56 | Adriano Martins | @1.20 | Rustam Khabilov | 22nd Feb | Dec | 3 | 5:00 |
| 5. | @5.50 | Kajan Johnson | @1.19 | Adriano Martins | 9th Sep | KO/TKO | 3 | 0:49 |
| 6. | @inf | Rafael dos Anjos | @inf | Benson Henderson | 23rd Aug | KO/TKO | 1 | 2:31 |
| 7. | @5.25 | Nate Diaz | @1.24 | Michael Johnson | 19th Dec | Dec | 3 | 5:00 |
| 8. | @5.35 | Julian Erosa | @1.20 | Sean Woodson | 27th Jun | Sub | 3 | 2:44 |
| 9. | @5.05 | Nik Lentz | @1.24 | Will Brooks | 18th Nov | Sub | 2 | 2:05 |
| 10. | @5.00 | Don Madge | @1.23 | Te Edwards | 27th Oct | KO/TKO | 2 | 0:14 |
Featherweight:
503 fights
Fav Wins: 322 (64%), Dog Wins: 181 (36%)
| Odds | Underdog Winner | Odds | Opponent | Date | Method | Rnd | Time | |
| 1. | @10.24 | Trevin Jones | @1.18 | Timur Valiev | 22nd Aug | KO/TKO | 2 | 1:59 |
| 2. | @inf | Mike Wilkinson | @inf | Niklas Backstrom | 4th Oct | KO/TKO | 1 | 1:19 |
| 3. | @6.53 | Darren Elkins | @1.16 | Mirsad Bektic | 4th Mar | KO/TKO | 3 | 3:19 |
| 4. | @4.80 | Charles Jourdain | @1.30 | Doo Ho Choi | 21st Dec | KO/TKO | 2 | 4:32 |
| 5. | @4.30 | Calvin Kattar | @1.29 | Andre Fili | 29th Jul | Dec | 3 | 5:00 |
| 6. | @2.20 | Mike Grundy | @1.79 | Nad Narimani | 16th Mar | KO/TKO | 2 | 4:42 |
| 7. | @4.10 | Nate Landwehr | @1.30 | Ludovit Klein | 16th Oct | Sub | 3 | 2:22 |
| 8. | @4.05 | Damon Jackson | @1.30 | Mirsad Bektic | 19th Sep | Sub | 3 | 1:21 |
| 9. | @4.05 | Diego Rivas | @1.33 | Noad Lahat | 6th Feb | KO/TKO | 2 | 0:23 |
| 10. | @4.00 | Gray Maynard | @1.33 | Teruto Ishihara | 7th Jul | Dec | 3 | 5:00 |
Bantamweight (Men):
433 fights
Fav Wins: 282 (65%), Dog Wins: 151 (35%)
| Odds | Underdog Winner | Odds | Opponent | Date | Method | Rnd | Time | |
| 1. | @7.69 | Frankie Saenz | @1.14 | Yuri Alcantara | 22nd Feb | Dec | 3 | 5:00 |
| 2. | @5.25 | Victor Henry | @1.22 | Raoni Barcelos | 22nd Jan | Dec | 3 | 5:00 |
| 3. | @5.00 | Leandro Issa | @1.22 | Yuta Sasaki | 20th Dec | Sub | 2 | 4:13 |
| 4. | @4.50 | Aljamain Sterling | @1.27 | Petr Yan | 9th Apr | Dec | 5 | 5:00 |
| 5. | @4.50 | Raphael Assuncao | @1.26 | Victor Henry | 15th Oct | Dec | 3 | 5:00 |
| 6. | @4.44 | Jerrod Sanders | @1.28 | Russell Doane | 12th Jul | Dec | 3 | 5:00 |
| 7. | @4.20 | Urijah Faber | @1.40 | Ricky Simon | 13th Jul | KO/TKO | 1 | 0:46 |
| 8. | @4.15 | Lina Lansberg | @1.33 | Tonya Evinger | 1st Jun | Dec | 3 | 5:00 |
| 9. | @4.05 | Felipe Colares | @1.30 | Domingo Pilarte | 20th Jul | Dec | 3 | 5:00 |
| 10. | @4.00 | Bryan Caraway | @1.34 | Aljamain Sterling | 29th May | Dec | 3 | 5:00 |
Flyweight:
400 fights
Fav Wins: 257 (64%), Dog Wins: 143 (36%)
| Odds | Underdog Winner | Odds | Opponent | Date | Method | Rnd | Time | |
| 1. | @10.71 | Shana Dobson | @1.10 | Mariya Agapova | 22nd Aug | KO/TKO | 2 | 1:38 |
| 2. | @8.50 | Alexa Grasso | @1.17 | Valentina Shevchenko | 4th Mar | Sub | 4 | 4:34 |
| 3. | @8.02 | Roxanne Modafferi | @1.12 | Maycee Barber | 18th Jan | Dec | 3 | 5:00 |
| 4. | @5.80 | John Moraga | @1.20 | Magomed Bibulatov | 7th Oct | KO/TKO | 1 | 1:38 |
| 5. | @inf | Chris Kelades | @inf | Patrick Holohan | 4th Oct | Dec | 3 | 5:00 |
| 6. | @5.35 | Yuta Sasaki | @1.21 | Justin Scoggins | 17th Jun | Sub | 2 | 3:19 |
| 7. | @5.35 | Ryan Benoit | @1.22 | Sergio Pettis | 14th Mar | KO/TKO | 2 | 1:34 |
| 8. | @5.00 | Henry Cejudo | @1.22 | Demetrious Johnson | 4th Aug | Dec | 5 | 5:00 |
| 9. | @4.90 | Brandon Moreno | @1.23 | Louis Smolka | 1st Oct | Sub | 1 | 2:23 |
| 10. | @4.89 | Rogerio Bontorin | @1.22 | Magomed Bibulatov | 2nd Feb | Dec | 3 | 5:00 |
Bantamweight (Women):
155 fights
Fav Wins: 97 (63%), Dog Wins: 58 (37%)
| Odds | Underdog Winner | Odds | Opponent | Date | Method | Rnd | Time | |
| 1. | @12.99 | Holly Holm | @1.07 | Ronda Rousey | 14th Nov | KO/TKO | 2 | 0:59 |
| 2. | @8.50 | Julianna Pena | @1.11 | Amanda Nunes | 11th Dec | Sub | 2 | 3:26 |
| 3. | @4.70 | Lina Lansberg | @1.25 | Macy Chiasson | 28th Sep | Dec | 3 | 5:00 |
| 4. | @3.79 | Bethe Correia | @2.00 | Sijara Eubanks | 21st Sep | Dec | 3 | 5:00 |
| 5. | @3.65 | Leslie Smith | @1.34 | Irene Aldana | 17th Dec | Dec | 3 | 5:00 |
| 6. | @3.51 | Viviane Araujo | @1.37 | Talita Bernardo | 11th May | KO/TKO | 3 | 0:48 |
| 7. | @3.50 | Sijara Eubanks | @1.36 | Julia Avila | 12th Sep | Dec | 3 | 5:00 |
| 8. | @3.50 | Miesha Tate | @1.38 | Holly Holm | 5th Mar | Sub | 5 | 3:30 |
| 9. | @3.40 | Sarah Moras | @1.38 | Ashlee Evans-Smith | 9th Sep | Sub | 1 | 2:51 |
| 10. | @3.34 | Amanda Nunes | @1.40 | Sara McMann | 8th Aug | Sub | 1 | 2:53 |
Strawweight (Women):
260 fights
Fav Wins: 169 (65%), Dog Wins: 91 (35%)
| Odds | Underdog Winner | Odds | Opponent | Date | Method | Rnd | Time | |
| 1. | @7.14 | Maryna Moroz | @1.18 | Joanne Wood | 11th Apr | Sub | 1 | 1:30 |
| 2. | @7.00 | Rose Namajunas | @1.20 | Joanna Jedrzejczyk | 4th Nov | KO/TKO | 1 | 3:03 |
| 3. | @4.00 | Montserrat Ruiz | @1.29 | Cheyanne Buys | 20th Mar | Dec | 3 | 5:00 |
| 4. | @4.00 | Angela Hill | @1.30 | Lupita Godinez | 13th Aug | Dec | 3 | 5:00 |
| 5. | @3.85 | Elise Reed | @1.36 | Cory McKenna | 19th Mar | Dec | 3 | 5:00 |
| 6. | @3.80 | Felice Herrig | @1.32 | Alexa Grasso | 4th Feb | Dec | 3 | 5:00 |
| 7. | @3.70 | Nina Nunes | @1.36 | Claudia Gadelha | 8th Dec | Dec | 3 | 5:00 |
| 8. | @3.60 | Marina Alcalde Rodriguez | @1.35 | Amanda Ribas | 24th Jan | KO/TKO | 2 | 0:54 |
| 9. | @3.60 | Maria Oliveira | @1.39 | Gloria de Paula | 18th Jun | Dec | 3 | 5:00 |
| 10. | @3.50 | Hannah Cifers | @1.36 | Polyana Viana | 2nd Mar | Dec | 3 | 5:00 |
Analysis of UFC underdog winners for 2015
Note written 5th August. We certainly need more fights before we can say for certain but it appears there's a general trend towards more underdog winners at higher weight classes. It's also a surprise to me how few big underdogs have won. We've already got a Betting underdogs vs favourites in MMA page, but clearly this needs some more filters adding because betting slight underdogs would appear to be the best bet.
It also appears that in the two most popular divisions (Lightweight and Welterweight) there are less upsets. Perhaps this is because matchmaking's a little easier due to the higher volume of fighters or perhaps the bookmakers and punters are just a little more familiar with the fighters involved. However, there's also a low number of upsets in women's MMA, which is a little thin on the ground, so honestly, you could be looking for reasoning behind these statistical patterns for a while! It will be very interesting to see how we progress over the rest of 2015, in the UFC!
