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The Biggest Underdog Winners of 2015 in the UFC

The page is called top 10 underdog winners of 2015 in the UFC but I've made the stats go back as far as November 2014 to give a bit more data (there simply weren't enough fights in the lower weight classes).

Biggest UFC underdog winners by weight class

Overall 2556 fights
Fav Wins: 1631 (64%), Dog Wins: 925 (36%)

  Odds Underdog Winner Odds Opponent Weight Date Method Rnd Time
1. @12.99 Holly Holm @1.07 Ronda Rousey 135 14th Nov KO/TKO 2 0:59
2. @8.75 Khama Worthy @1.12 Devonte Smith 155 17th Aug KO/TKO 1 4:15
3. @0.00 Mike Wilkinson @0.00 Niklas Backstrom 145 4th Oct KO/TKO 1 1:19
4. @7.69 Frankie Saenz @1.14 Yuri Alcantara 135 22nd Feb Dec 3 5:00
5. @7.14 Maryna Moroz @1.18 Joanne Calderwood 115 11th Apr Sub 1 1:30
6. @7.00 Rose Namajunas @1.20 Joanna Jedrzejczyk 115 4th Nov KO/TKO 1 3:03
7. @6.53 Darren Elkins @1.16 Mirsad Bektic 145 4th Mar KO/TKO 3 3:19
8. @6.41 Leonardo Santos @1.18 Kevin Lee 155 12th Dec KO/TKO 1 3:26
9. @6.40 Michael Bisping @1.19 Luke Rockhold 185 4th Jun KO/TKO 1 3:36
10. @6.05 Eric Spicely @1.17 Thiago Santos 185 24th Sep Sub 1 2:58
11. @6.00 Paul Craig @1.17 Magomed Ankalaev 205 17th Mar Sub 3 4:59
12. @5.92 Chance Rencountre @1.18 Ismail Naurdiev 170 6th Jul Dec 3 5:00
13. @5.80 Bryan Barberena @1.21 Warlley Alves 170 14th May Dec 3 5:00
14. @5.80 John Moraga @1.20 Magomed Bibulatov 125 7th Oct KO/TKO 1 1:38
15. @5.56 Adriano Martins @1.20 Rustam Khabilov 155 22nd Feb Dec 3 5:00
16. @5.50 Kajan Johnson @1.19 Adriano Martins 155 9th Sep KO/TKO 3 0:49
17. @5.49 Urijah Hall @1.20 Gegard Mousasi 185 26th Sep KO/TKO 2 0:25
18. @0.00 Rafael dos Anjos @0.00 Benson Henderson 155 23rd Aug KO/TKO 1 2:31
19. @5.44 Ryan Janes @1.21 Andrew Sanchez 185 2nd Dec KO/TKO 3 0:58
20. @5.25 Nate Diaz @1.24 Michael Johnson 155 19th Dec Dec 3 5:00


Heavyweight: 186 fights
Fav Wins: 120 (65%), Dog Wins: 66 (35%)

  Odds Underdog Winner Odds Opponent Date Method Rnd Time
1. @5.26 Fabricio Werdum @1.20 Cain Velasquez 13th Jun Sub 3 2:13
2. @5.00 Allen Crowder @1.22 Greg Hardy 19th Jan 2 2:28
3. @0.00 Andrei Arlovski @0.00 Antonio Silva 13th Sep KO/TKO 1 2:59
4. @4.76 Andrei Arlovski @1.25 Travis Browne 23rd May KO/TKO 1 4:41
5. @4.35 Viktor Pesta @1.27 Konstantin Erokhin 24th Jan Dec 3 5:00
6. @0.00 Ben Rothwell @0.00 Alistair Overeem 5th Sep KO/TKO 1 2:19
7. @4.17 Andrei Arlovski @1.32 Junior Albini 11th Nov Dec 3 5:00
8. @4.15 Adam Wieczorek @1.32 Arjan Bhullar 14th Apr Sub 2 1:59
9. @4.10 Mark Godbeer @1.29 Walt Harris 4th Nov 1 4:27
10. @3.40 Alistair Overeem @1.38 Junior dos Santos 19th Dec KO/TKO 2 4:43

 

Light Heavyweight: 192 fights
Fav Wins: 122 (64%), Dog Wins: 70 (36%)

  Odds Underdog Winner Odds Opponent Date Method Rnd Time
1. @6.00 Paul Craig @1.17 Magomed Ankalaev 17th Mar Sub 3 4:59
2. @5.31 Mauricio Rua @1.21 Tyson Pedro 1st Dec KO/TKO 3 0:43
3. @5.00 Volkan Oezdemir @1.25 Misha Cirkunov 28th May KO/TKO 1 0:29
4. @4.60 John Allan @1.26 Mike Rodriguez 13th Jul Dec 3 5:00
5. @4.35 Gian Villante @1.28 Corey Anderson 18th Apr KO/TKO 3 4:18
6. @4.20 Michal Oleksiejczuk @1.33 Khalil Rountree 31st Dec Dec 3 5:00
7. @4.20 Jan Blachowicz @1.56 Jimi Manuwa 17th Mar Dec 3 5:00
8. @4.08 Rogerio Nogueira @1.30 Sam Alvey 22nd Sep KO/TKO 2 0:35
9. @3.85 Anthony Smith @1.34 Alexander Gustafsson 1st Jun Sub 4 2:38
10. @3.75 Volkan Oezdemir @1.33 Ovince St Preux 4th Feb Dec 3 5:00

Middleweight: 273 fights
Fav Wins: 166 (61%), Dog Wins: 107 (39%)

  Odds Underdog Winner Odds Opponent Date Method Rnd Time
1. @6.40 Michael Bisping @1.19 Luke Rockhold 4th Jun KO/TKO 1 3:36
2. @6.05 Eric Spicely @1.17 Thiago Santos 24th Sep Sub 1 2:58
3. @5.49 Urijah Hall @1.20 Gegard Mousasi 26th Sep KO/TKO 2 0:25
4. @5.44 Ryan Janes @1.21 Andrew Sanchez 2nd Dec KO/TKO 3 0:58
5. @5.00 Chris Dempsey @1.23 Eddie Gordon 18th Apr Dec 3 5:00
6. @5.00 Daniel Kelly @1.25 Antonio Carlos Junior 19th Mar KO/TKO 3 1:36
7. @4.65 Nate Marquardt @1.26 C.B. Dollaway 19th Dec KO/TKO 2 0:28
8. @4.35 Daniel Kelly @1.49 Rashad Evans 4th Mar Dec 3 5:00
9. @4.35 Rafael Natal @1.27 Urijah Hall 23rd May Dec 3 5:00
10. @4.17 Sam Alvey @1.32 Cezar Ferreira 22nd Feb KO/TKO 1 3:34

Welterweight: 433 fights
Fav Wins: 266 (61%), Dog Wins: 167 (39%)

  Odds Underdog Winner Odds Opponent Date Method Rnd Time
1. @5.92 Chance Rencountre @1.18 Ismail Naurdiev 6th Jul Dec 3 5:00
2. @5.80 Bryan Barberena @1.21 Warlley Alves 14th May Dec 3 5:00
3. @0.00 Kiichi Kunimoto @0.00 Daniel Sarafian 14th Jun Sub 1 2:52
4. @5.00 Nate Diaz @1.25 Conor McGregor 5th Mar Sub 2 4:12
5. @5.00 Ismail Naurdiev @1.25 Michel Prazeres 23rd Feb Dec 3 5:00
6. @5.00 Tristan Connelly @1.23 Michel Pereira 14th Sep Dec 3 5:00
7. @4.75 Max Griffin @1.36 Mike Perry 24th Feb Dec 3 5:00
8. @4.75 Claudio Silva @1.29 Nordine Taleb 27th May Sub 1 4:31
9. @4.55 Anthony Pettis @1.33 Stephen Thompson 23rd Mar KO/TKO 2 4:55
10. @4.35 Matt Dwyer @1.27 William Macario 22nd Feb KO/TKO 1 3:14

Lightweight: 467 fights
Fav Wins: 316 (68%), Dog Wins: 151 (32%)

  Odds Underdog Winner Odds Opponent Date Method Rnd Time
1. @8.75 Khama Worthy @1.12 Devonte Smith 17th Aug KO/TKO 1 4:15
2. @6.41 Leonardo Santos @1.18 Kevin Lee 12th Dec KO/TKO 1 3:26
3. @5.56 Adriano Martins @1.20 Rustam Khabilov 22nd Feb Dec 3 5:00
4. @5.50 Kajan Johnson @1.19 Adriano Martins 9th Sep KO/TKO 3 0:49
5. @0.00 Rafael dos Anjos @0.00 Benson Henderson 23rd Aug KO/TKO 1 2:31
6. @5.25 Nate Diaz @1.24 Michael Johnson 19th Dec Dec 3 5:00
7. @5.05 Nik Lentz @1.24 Will Brooks 18th Nov Sub 2 2:05
8. @5.00 Andrew Holbrook @1.22 Jake Matthews 26th Nov Dec 3 5:00
9. @5.00 Don Madge @1.23 Te Edwards 27th Oct KO/TKO 2 0:14
10. @4.90 Rafael dos Anjos @1.27 Anthony Pettis 14th Mar Dec 5 5:00

Featherweight: 301 fights
Fav Wins: 192 (64%), Dog Wins: 109 (36%)

  Odds Underdog Winner Odds Opponent Date Method Rnd Time
1. @0.00 Mike Wilkinson @0.00 Niklas Backstrom 4th Oct KO/TKO 1 1:19
2. @6.53 Darren Elkins @1.16 Mirsad Bektic 4th Mar KO/TKO 3 3:19
3. @4.30 Calvin Kattar @1.29 Andre Fili 29th Jul Dec 3 5:00
4. @2.20 Mike Grundy @1.79 Nad Narimani 16th Mar KO/TKO 2 4:42
5. @4.05 Diego Rivas @1.33 Noad Lahat 6th Feb KO/TKO 2 0:23
6. @4.00 Gray Maynard @1.33 Teruto Ishihara 7th Jul Dec 3 5:00
7. @3.75 Gabriel Benitez @1.34 Jason Knight 9th Dec Dec 3 5:00
8. @3.75 Jordan Rinaldi @1.36 Jason Knight 3rd Nov Dec 3 5:00
9. @3.70 Godofredo Pepey @1.33 Andre Fili 21st Mar Sub 1 3:14
10. @3.65 Humberto Bandenay @1.35 Martin Bravo 5th Aug KO/TKO 1 0:26

Bantamweight (Men): 246 fights
Fav Wins: 156 (63%), Dog Wins: 90 (37%)

  Odds Underdog Winner Odds Opponent Date Method Rnd Time
1. @7.69 Frankie Saenz @1.14 Yuri Alcantara 22nd Feb Dec 3 5:00
2. @5.00 Leandro Issa @1.22 Yuta Sasaki 20th Dec Sub 2 4:13
3. @4.44 Jerrod Sanders @1.28 Russell Doane 12th Jul Dec 3 5:00
4. @4.20 Urijah Faber @1.40 Ricky Simon 13th Jul KO/TKO 1 0:46
5. @4.15 Lina Lansberg @1.33 Tonya Evinger 1st Jun Dec 3 5:00
6. @4.05 Felipe Colares @1.30 Domingo Pilarte 20th Jul Dec 3 5:00
7. @4.00 Guido Cannetti @1.33 Hugo Viana 1st Aug Dec 3 5:00
8. @4.00 Bryan Caraway @1.34 Aljamain Sterling 29th May Dec 3 5:00
9. @3.95 Andre Soukhamthath @1.40 Luke Sanders 9th Dec KO/TKO 2 1:30
10. @3.90 Brian Kelleher @1.31 Yuri Alcantara 3rd Jun Sub 1 1:48

Flyweight: 200 fights
Fav Wins: 127 (64%), Dog Wins: 73 (37%)

  Odds Underdog Winner Odds Opponent Date Method Rnd Time
1. @5.80 John Moraga @1.20 Magomed Bibulatov 7th Oct KO/TKO 1 1:38
2. @0.00 Chris Kelades @0.00 Patrick Holohan 4th Oct Dec 3 5:00
3. @5.35 Yuta Sasaki @1.21 Justin Scoggins 17th Jun Sub 2 3:19
4. @5.35 Ryan Benoit @1.22 Sergio Pettis 14th Mar KO/TKO 2 1:34
5. @5.00 Henry Cejudo @1.22 Demetrious Johnson 4th Aug Dec 5 5:00
6. @4.90 Brandon Moreno @1.23 Louis Smolka 1st Oct Sub 1 2:23
7. @4.89 Rogerio Bontorin @1.22 Magomed Bibulatov 2nd Feb Dec 3 5:00
8. @4.50 Yanan Wu @1.30 Lauren Mueller 24th Nov Sub 1 4:00
9. @0.00 Jussier Formiga @0.00 Zach Makovsky 16th Aug Dec 3 5:00
10. @3.75 Roxanne Modafferi @1.37 Antonina Shevchenko 20th Apr Dec 3 5:00

Bantamweight (Women): 96 fights
Fav Wins: 57 (59%), Dog Wins: 39 (41%)

  Odds Underdog Winner Odds Opponent Date Method Rnd Time
1. @12.99 Holly Holm @1.07 Ronda Rousey 14th Nov KO/TKO 2 0:59
2. @4.70 Lina Lansberg @1.25 Macy Chiasson 28th Sep Dec 3 5:00
3. @3.79 Bethe Correia @2.00 Sijara Eubanks 21st Sep Dec 3 5:00
4. @3.65 Leslie Smith @1.34 Irene Aldana 17th Dec Dec 3 5:00
5. @3.51 Viviane Araujo @1.37 Talita Bernardo 11th May KO/TKO 3 0:48
6. @3.50 Miesha Tate @1.38 Holly Holm 5th Mar Sub 5 3:30
7. @3.40 Sarah Moras @1.38 Ashlee Evans-Smith 9th Sep Sub 1 2:51
8. @3.34 Amanda Nunes @1.40 Sara McMann 8th Aug Sub 1 2:53
9. @3.33 Marion Reneau @1.41 Jessica Andrade 22nd Feb Sub 1 1:54
10. @3.25 Valentina Shevchenko @1.50 Holly Holm 23rd Jul Dec 5 5:00

Strawweight (Women): 162 fights
Fav Wins: 109 (67%), Dog Wins: 53 (33%)

  Odds Underdog Winner Odds Opponent Date Method Rnd Time
1. @7.14 Maryna Moroz @1.18 Joanne Calderwood 11th Apr Sub 1 1:30
2. @7.00 Rose Namajunas @1.20 Joanna Jedrzejczyk 4th Nov KO/TKO 1 3:03
3. @3.80 Felice Herrig @1.32 Alexa Grasso 4th Feb Dec 3 5:00
4. @3.70 Nina Ansaroff @1.36 Claudia Gadelha 8th Dec Dec 3 5:00
5. @3.50 Randa Markos @1.37 Carla Esparza 19th Feb Dec 3 5:00
6. @3.50 Hannah Cifers @1.36 Polyana Viana 2nd Mar Dec 3 5:00
7. @3.48 Jessica Andrade @1.38 Claudia Gadelha 22nd Sep Dec 3 5:00
8. @3.45 Carla Esparza @1.50 Cynthia Calvillo 31st Dec Dec 3 5:00
9. @3.23 Joanna Jedrzejczyk @1.43 Claudia Gadelha 13th Dec Dec 3 5:00
10. @3.13 Alex Chambers @1.45 Kailin Curran 9th May Sub 3 3:15

 

Analysis of UFC underdog winners for 2015

Note written 5th August. We certainly need more fights before we can say for certain but it appears there's a general trend towards more underdog winners at higher weight classes. It's also a surprise to me how few big underdogs have won. We've already got a Betting underdogs vs favourites in MMA page, but clearly this needs some more filters adding because betting slight underdogs would appear to be the best bet.

It also appears that in the two most popular divisions (Lightweight and Welterweight) there are less upsets. Perhaps this is because matchmaking's a little easier due to the higher volume of fighters or perhaps the bookmakers and punters are just a little more familiar with the fighters involved. However, there's also a low number of upsets in women's MMA, which is a little thin on the ground, so honestly, you could be looking for reasoning behind these statistical patterns for a while! It will be very interesting to see how we progress over the rest of 2015, in the UFC!

 
 
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