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MMA Handicapper Profile: UFC Betting

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UFC Betting (UFCBetting)


MMA MHandicapper - UFC Betting

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MMA Betting Stats Summary

Overall Stats

Straight Fight Picks

Props

Parlays

Right 41 (39%) Right 41 (39%) Right 0 (0%) Right 0 (0%)
Wrong 63 (61%) Wrong 63 (61%) Wrong 0 (0%) Wrong 0 (0%)
Avg Odds 2.30 Avg Odds 2.30 Avg Odds 0.00 Avg Odds 0.00
Units Bet 539.0 Units Bet 539.0 Units Bet 0.0 Units Bet 0.0
Avg Bet 5.18 Avg Bet 5.18 Avg Bet 0.00 Avg Bet 0.00
Units Profit -9.16 Units Profit -9.16 Units Profit 0.00 Units Profit 0.00
ROI % -2% ROI % -2% ROI % 0% ROI % 0%
View Handicapper's Stats

Straight Pick Stats

  Picks Correct % Correct Units Bet Units Profit Profit per Pick ROI
Big Favorites 10 (10%) 6 60 % 39.00 -7.51 -0.75 -19%
Slight Favorites 3 (3%) 1 33 % 9.00 -3.30 -1.10 -37%
Slight Underdogs 68 (65%) 25 37 % 365.00 -51.63 -0.76 -14%
Big Underdogs 23 (22%) 9 39 % 126.00 53.28 2.32 42%
 

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UFC Betting's MMA Handicapper Bio

At UFC Betting we are a small team of insurance specialists who turn a profit wagering UFC events. We use a mathematical algorithm that takes advantage of trends and patterns to forecast expected return. Our model is one amongst many, but our results so far are positive.

THE PROBLEM
Most of us haven't the time for comprehensive research. To compensate we rely upon the opinions of experts, but they are very often wrong. Historical data of predictions at MMA Junkie, for example, show that staff picks - even their full-consensus selections - are frequently mistaken. Crowd-sourced data isn't any better. Tapology records hundreds of votes, though fighters with predicted success below 20% still win at almost every event. Unpredictability is the very nature of MMA fighting.

A SOLUTION
The problems we encounter in insurance are much the same as in UFC betting. We don't know when a specific event will happen (house fire, car crash, etc) but we can measure how often it will usually occur over a period of time. We can predict a likely outcome within a large population. The law of large numbers and modern probability theory intertwine to assist here. The variables are relatively straightforward - expected insurance events, translated to expected outlay, offset by the premiums required to cover that outlay plus profit. This concept maps perfectly onto UFC wagering.

Will this particular underdog win, or will that favourite lose? They are questions that are very difficult to answer. A better question is how often do slight underdogs win, or how often do big favourites lose? The skill here is in putting that information into a model that correlates with finely tuned odds data coupled with proportional stakes (see Kelly Criterion). We play numbers, not fighters. We calculate expected return, not expected outcome. We bet like an economist and avoid the human pitfalls of gambling.

THE MODEL
The Model captures a number of bets each week that in the long run have proven to return a profit. Combined with a compound interest betting method, exponential profit is hoped for. It isn't an aim here to get the most picks correct. In fact over 50% of predictions from The Model will be wrong, and that's ok. Profit is still possible when the right odds are wagered.

Sometimes our bets appear counter-intuitive, but that's the strength of The Model. Intuition is what often leads us astray in this sport. Trusting consistent method over intuition, despite our better judgement, is how we have done well here. Betting on fighters that will probably lose though pay disproportionate odds is a real strategy for long-term profit. It's a matter of properly managing our risk to reward ratio. We recognise that money needs to be put in difficult positions to hit the big winners.

PAID PICKS
$5 paid picks. We start posting our predictions early in the week and hunt best odds as the week progresses. The science behind our betting method is provided with paid picks.

PROGRESS
ESPN+15 was our first wager recorded here on 31 August 2019.

We have bet 517 units in total and are 2 units down (after +21). It's bound to bounce back soon! Haha

Join us and take a share of the profit!
 

Picks on Upcoming MMA Fights by UFC Betting

This handicapper has made no picks on upcoming fights.

UFC Betting's MMA Handicapper's Pick History


Your $ bet per unit is set at $10. You can edit that value in your settings.

UFC Fight Night 164, Sao Paulo, 16th Nov '19

Pick Opponent   Odds Unit
Bet
Unit
Profit
Cash
Profit
ROI  
Ronaldo Souza Jan Blachowicz L 2.75 4 -4.00 $-40.00 -100% Bet Info
Paul Craig Mauricio Rua D 3.26 4 0.00 $0.00 0% Bet Info
Charles Oliveira Jared Gordon W 1.28 3 0.84 $8.40 28% Bet Info
Wellington Turman Markus Perez W 2.13 4 4.52 $45.20 113% Bet Info
Sergio Moraes James Krause L 2.72 4 -4.00 $-40.00 -100% Bet Info
Luiz Garagorri Ricardo Ramos L 3.50 1 -1.00 $-10.00 -100% Bet Info
Randy Brown Warlley Alves W 2.01 4 4.04 $40.40 101% Bet Info
Renan Barao Douglas Silva de Andrade L 3.06 4 -4.00 $-40.00 -100% Bet Info
Vanessa Melo Tracy Cortez L 2.64 4 -4.00 $-40.00 -100% Bet Info
Straight Pick Event Totals:   2.38 32.00 -7.60 $-76.00 -24%  
Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets):   32.00 -7.60 $-76.00 -24%  

UFC Fight Night 163, Moscow, 9th Nov '19

Pick Opponent   Odds Unit
Bet
Unit
Profit
Cash
Profit
ROI  
Calvin Kattar Zabit Magomedsharipov L 3.57 1 -1.00 $-10.00 -100% Bet Info
Calvin Kattar Zabit Magomedsharipov L 3.65 5 -5.00 $-50.00 -100% Bet Info
Greg Hardy Alexander Volkov L 3.60 6 -6.00 $-60.00 -100% Bet Info
Ed Herman Khadis Ibragimov W 2.45 5 7.25 $72.50 145% Bet Info
Klidson Farias de Abreu Shamil Gamzatov L 2.50 5 -5.00 $-50.00 -100% Bet Info
Alexander Yakovlev Roosevelt Roberts L 2.30 5 -5.00 $-50.00 -100% Bet Info
Davey Grant Grigory Popov W 2.50 5 7.50 $75.00 150% Bet Info
Straight Pick Event Totals:   2.83 32.00 -7.25 $-72.50 -23%  
Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets):   32.00 -7.25 $-72.50 -23%  

UFC 244, New York, 2nd Nov '19

Pick Opponent   Odds Unit
Bet
Unit
Profit
Cash
Profit
ROI  
Nate Diaz Jorge Masvidal L 2.45 5 -5.00 $-50.00 -100% Bet Info
Kevin Lee Gregor Gillespie W 2.35 5 6.75 $67.50 135% Bet Info
Corey Anderson Johnny Walker W 2.60 5 8.00 $80.00 160% Bet Info
Brad Tavares Edmen Shahbazyan L 2.40 5 -5.00 $-50.00 -100% Bet Info
Andrei Arlovski Jairzinho Rozenstruik L 2.37 5 -5.00 $-50.00 -100% Bet Info
Jennifer Maia Katlyn Chookagian L 2.37 5 -5.00 $-50.00 -100% Bet Info
Julio Arce Hakeem Dawodu L 2.10 6 -6.00 $-60.00 -100% Bet Info
Straight Pick Event Totals:   2.37 36.00 -11.25 $-112.50 -31%  
Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets):   36.00 -11.25 $-112.50 -31%  

UFC Fight Night 162, Kallang, 26th Oct '19

Pick Opponent   Odds Unit
Bet
Unit
Profit
Cash
Profit
ROI  
Demian Maia Ben Askren W 2.50 5 7.50 $75.00 150% Bet Info
Stevie Ray Michael Johnson W 3.45 7 17.15 $171.50 245% Bet Info
Frank Camacho Beneil Dariush L 2.51 5 -5.00 $-50.00 -100% Bet Info
Don'tale Mayes Ciryl Gane L 3.60 7 -7.00 $-70.00 -100% Bet Info
Laureano Staropoli Muslim Salikhov L 2.30 1 -1.00 $-10.00 -100% Bet Info
Laureano Staropoli Muslim Salikhov L 2.50 4 -4.00 $-40.00 -100% Bet Info
Ashley Yoder Randa Markos L 2.20 5 -5.00 $-50.00 -100% Bet Info
Alex White Rafael Fiziev L 2.70 5 -5.00 $-50.00 -100% Bet Info
Enrique Barzola Movsar Evloev L 2.68 5 -5.00 $-50.00 -100% Bet Info
Alexandra Albu Loma Lookboonmee L 2.20 5 -5.00 $-50.00 -100% Bet Info
Straight Pick Event Totals:   2.60 49.00 -12.35 $-123.50 -25%  
Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets):   49.00 -12.35 $-123.50 -25%  

UFC ESPN 6, Boston, 18th Oct '19

Pick Opponent   Odds Unit
Bet
Unit
Profit
Cash
Profit
ROI  
Chris Weidman Dominick Reyes L 2.50 5 -5.00 $-50.00 -100% Bet Info
Ben Sosoli Greg Hardy L 3.70 7 -7.00 $-70.00 -100% Bet Info
Joe Lauzon Jonathan Pearce W 2.50 5 7.50 $75.00 150% Bet Info
Gillian Robertson Maycee Barber L 2.30 5 -5.00 $-50.00 -100% Bet Info
Darren Stewart Deron Winn W 2.10 5 5.50 $55.00 110% Bet Info
Charles Rosa Manny Bermudez W 2.40 5 7.00 $70.00 140% Bet Info
Sean Woodson Kyle Bochniak W 2.15 5 5.75 $57.50 115% Bet Info
Randy Costa Boston Salmon W 2.38 5 6.90 $69.00 138% Bet Info
Court McGee Sean Brady L 2.75 4 -4.00 $-40.00 -100% Bet Info
Brendan Allen Kevin Holland W 2.50 5 7.50 $75.00 150% Bet Info
Daniel Spitz Tanner Boser L 2.25 5 -5.00 $-50.00 -100% Bet Info
Straight Pick Event Totals:   2.45 56.00 14.15 $141.50 25%  
Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets):   56.00 14.15 $141.50 25%  

UFC on ESPN+ 19, San Francisco, 12th Oct '19

Pick Opponent   Odds Unit
Bet
Unit
Profit
Cash
Profit
ROI  
Joanna Jedrzejczyk Michelle Waterson W 1.27 1 0.27 $2.70 27% Bet Info
Cub Swanson Kron Gracie W 2.60 7 11.20 $112.00 160% Bet Info
James Vick Niko Price L 2.35 5 -5.00 $-50.00 -100% Bet Info
Amanda Ribas Mackenzie Dern W 2.30 5 6.50 $65.00 130% Bet Info
Matt Frevola Luis Pena W 2.60 6 9.60 $96.00 160% Bet Info
Gerald Meerschaert Eryk Anders L 2.35 5 -5.00 $-50.00 -100% Bet Info
Devin Clark Ryan Spann L 2.45 7 -7.00 $-70.00 -100% Bet Info
Thomas Gifford Mike Davis L 3.60 7 -7.00 $-70.00 -100% Bet Info
Alex Morono Max Griffin W 2.25 7 8.75 $87.50 125% Bet Info
Tim Elliott Deiveson Figueiredo L 2.65 5 -5.00 $-50.00 -100% Bet Info
Andre Ewell Marlon Vera L 2.40 5 -5.00 $-50.00 -100% Bet Info
Hector Aldana Miguel Baeza L 2.95 7 -7.00 $-70.00 -100% Bet Info
Lauren Mueller J.J. Aldrich L 2.50 5 -5.00 $-50.00 -100% Bet Info
Straight Pick Event Totals:   2.36 72.00 -9.68 $-96.80 -13%  
Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets):   72.00 -9.68 $-96.80 -13%  

UFC 243, Melbourne, 5th Oct '19

Pick Opponent   Odds Unit
Bet
Unit
Profit
Cash
Profit
ROI  
Robert Whittaker Israel Adesanya L 1.98 3 -3.00 $-30.00 -100% Bet Info
Al Iaquinta Daniel Hooker L 2.48 7 -7.00 $-70.00 -100% Bet Info
Sergey Spivak Tai Tuivasa W 4.14 3 9.42 $94.20 314% Bet Info
Luke Jumeau Dhiego Lima L 2.30 8 -8.00 $-80.00 -100% Bet Info
Yorgan De Castro Justin Tafa W 2.10 6 6.60 $66.00 110% Bet Info
Jake Matthews Rostem Akman W 1.28 4 1.12 $11.20 28% Bet Info
Maki Pitolo Callan Potter L 1.32 4 -4.00 $-40.00 -100% Bet Info
Jamie Mullarkey Brad Riddell L 2.58 8 -8.00 $-80.00 -100% Bet Info
Megan Anderson Zara Fairn Dos Santos W 1.21 5 1.05 $10.50 21% Bet Info
Nadia Kassem Ji Yeon Kim L 2.55 7 -7.00 $-70.00 -100% Bet Info
Bruno Silva Khalid Taha L 3.11 1 -1.00 $-10.00 -100% Bet Info
Bruno Silva Khalid Taha L 3.01 7 -7.00 $-70.00 -100% Bet Info
Straight Pick Event Totals:   2.05 63.00 -26.81 $-268.10 -43%  
Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets):   63.00 -26.81 $-268.10 -43%  

UFC Fight Night 160, Copenhagen, 28th Sep '19

Pick Opponent   Odds Unit
Bet
Unit
Profit
Cash
Profit
ROI  
Jared Cannonier Jack Hermansson W 3.40 7 16.80 $168.00 240% Bet Info
Mark O. Madsen Danilo Belluardo W 1.17 4 0.68 $6.80 17% Bet Info
Gunnar Nelson Gilbert Burns L 2.10 2 -2.00 $-20.00 -100% Bet Info
Ion Cutelaba Khalil Rountree W 2.10 3 3.30 $33.00 110% Bet Info
Ovince St Preux Michal Oleksiejczuk W 3.20 7 15.40 $154.00 220% Bet Info
Nicolas Dalby Alex Oliveira W 2.25 8 10.00 $100.00 125% Bet Info
John Phillips Alen Amedovski W 2.15 3 3.45 $34.50 115% Bet Info
Alessio Di Chirico Makhmud Muradov L 2.40 2 -2.00 $-20.00 -100% Bet Info
Siyar Bahadurzada Ismail Naurdiev L 2.90 8 -8.00 $-80.00 -100% Bet Info
Giga Chikadze Brandon Davis W 2.55 2 3.10 $31.00 155% Bet Info
Macy Chiasson Lina Lansberg L 1.24 1 -1.00 $-10.00 -100% Bet Info
Macy Chiasson Lina Lansberg L 1.26 3 -3.00 $-30.00 -100% Bet Info
Lando Vannata Marc Diakiese L 2.40 2 -2.00 $-20.00 -100% Bet Info
Nohelin Hernandez Jack Shore L 2.65 6 -6.00 $-60.00 -100% Bet Info
Straight Pick Event Totals:   2.04 58.00 28.73 $287.30 50%  
Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets):   58.00 28.73 $287.30 50%  

UFC Fight Night 159, Mexico City, 21st Sep '19

Pick Opponent   Odds Unit
Bet
Unit
Profit
Cash
Profit
ROI  
Carla Esparza Alexa Grasso W 2.27 8 10.16 $101.60 127% Bet Info
Brandon Moreno Askar Askarov D 2.45 6 0.00 $0.00 0% Bet Info
Irene Aldana Vanessa Melo W 1.17 9 1.53 $15.30 17% Bet Info
Marco Polo Reyes Kyle Nelson L 2.10 7 -7.00 $-70.00 -100% Bet Info
Ariane Carnelossi Angela Hill L 2.25 8 -8.00 $-80.00 -100% Bet Info
Bethe Correia Sijara Eubanks W 3.46 6 14.76 $147.60 246% Bet Info
Marcos Mariano Claudio Puelles L 4.20 6 -6.00 $-60.00 -100% Bet Info
Straight Pick Event Totals:   2.22 50.00 5.45 $54.50 11%  
Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets):   50.00 5.45 $54.50 11%  

UFC Fight Night 158, Vancouver, 14th Sep '19

Pick Opponent   Odds Unit
Bet
Unit
Profit
Cash
Profit
ROI  
Donald Cerrone Justin Gaethje L 2.50 5 -5.00 $-50.00 -100% Bet Info
Michel Pereira Tristan Connelly L 1.18 5 -5.00 $-50.00 -100% Bet Info
Urijah Hall Antonio Carlos Junior W 3.00 5 10.00 $100.00 200% Bet Info
Cole Smith Miles Johns L 2.10 9 -9.00 $-90.00 -100% Bet Info
Hunter Azure Brad Katona W 2.20 7 8.40 $84.00 120% Bet Info
Ryan MacDonald Louis Smolka L 3.00 5 -5.00 $-50.00 -100% Bet Info
Kyle Prepolec Austin Hubbard L 2.10 9 -9.00 $-90.00 -100% Bet Info
Straight Pick Event Totals:   2.11 45.00 -14.60 $-146.00 -32%  
Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets):   45.00 -14.60 $-146.00 -32%  

UFC 242, Abu Dhabi, 7th Sep '19

Pick Opponent   Odds Unit
Bet
Unit
Profit
Cash
Profit
ROI  
Carlos Diego Ferreira Mairbek Taisumov W 3.25 8 18.00 $180.00 225% Bet Info
Teemu Packalen Ottman Azaitar L 2.70 8 -8.00 $-80.00 -100% Bet Info
Don Madge Fares Ziam W 2.40 9 12.60 $126.00 140% Bet Info
Straight Pick Event Totals:   2.74 25.00 22.60 $226.00 90%  
Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets):   25.00 22.60 $226.00 90%  

UFC Fight Night 157, Shenzhen, 31st Aug '19

Pick Opponent   Odds Unit
Bet
Unit
Profit
Cash
Profit
ROI  
Jessica Andrade Weili Zhang L 1.58 3 -3.00 $-30.00 -100% Bet Info
Li Jingliang Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos W 3.25 7 15.75 $157.50 225% Bet Info
Yanan Wu Mizuki Inoue L 2.20 8 -8.00 $-80.00 -100% Bet Info
Da Un Jung Khadis Ibragimov W 3.00 4 8.00 $80.00 200% Bet Info
Thiago Moises Damir Ismagulov L 2.62 6 -6.00 $-60.00 -100% Bet Info
Heili Alateng Danaa Batgerel W 1.90 3 2.70 $27.00 90% Bet Info
Straight Pick Event Totals:   2.28 31.00 9.45 $94.50 30%  
Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets):   31.00 9.45 $94.50 30%  



>>>> Showing Last 20 events: Click to view full history

 
 
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