Background
The term 'Wisdom of Crowds' essentially states that many people giving totally independent predictions can be extremely accurate. It's not a concept that can be applied to everything but when it comes to MMA, I thought it was a particularly good fit. You have an either / or outcome, so it's not particularly complicated, BUT there is just the right level of predictability vs unpredictability to give you value in terms of odds.
We ask people to predict only the fights they feel they know something about. Rather than just asking people to pick a winner, we ask for a % chance of a win for each fighter and the person's confidence in this selection. Doing this rather than just a "pick A or pick B" gives us much greater accuracy for finding which fights offer the greatest betting value.
Join In!!
The more people get involved, the better the WOC system works, so join in and help out! All you have to do is set two sliders for each fight where you think you know enough to make a pick. We DON'T want you to pick every fight, so you don't even have to pick a fight on every card... Just whenever you think you really have a good feel for a fight, log your opinion.
Below is an example of the two sliders - "Prediction" and "Confidence". Imagine the fight happens 100 times - how many times would each guy win the fight? In the example below, you'd be picking 70/30 for Pettis but you'd be really unconfident in that prediction. Then confidence is whatever you make of it really... If you think the fight is unpredictable, set it a little lower. Or if you've done a little less research than you could have, set it lower.... If you think the fight is really predictable, set it higher.
7 hours before the first fight of the night, we stop taking predictions. I then enter the latest odds and run a script that pumps out the picks (if there are any), which I then enter onto wisdom of crowds' profile page in our handicapper directory.
Your Ranking & The System's Results
The better your predictions the higher your ranking (which is visible on your profile page). By filtering users by who offers the best predictions (usually the ones who are really selective and don't just pick every fight), we get a really good weighted system to produce solid betting predictions!
So get involved! Click here to start making picks.
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