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MMA Betting - Favorites vs Underdogs, which is better?!?!

When betting on MMA should you bet on the favorites or the underdogs? This page continually updates with all major MMA / UFC fights. We'll have a look at simply betting on all favorites or underdogs, we'll break things down by the position on the fight card and we'll look at all levels of underdog / favorite to see what sort of odds over / under-perform their predicted win percentage.

Note, these results use best available odds at either the time the lines closed, just before the fight, or around 7 hours before the first fight of the night, where possible (events after 7th Nov 2014). Of course, if you bet several days / weeks before the fight, you'll get different odds. It is very important with MMA betting to try and have a few different accounts, if you want to maximise profits. Very slightly better odds will have a significant cumulative effect on your winnings over time.

MMA / UFC Betting - Favorite vs Underdog Returns over Time

The following MMA stats are based on a $10 bet on the favourite / underdog for every fight on the card.

Show stats for

Date Event Favourite
Wins
Underdog
Wins
Avg Winner
Odds
Favourites
(ROI)
Underdogs
(ROI)
27th Apr 13 UFC 159 - Jones vs. Sonnen 8 3 +-100 $8.50 (8%) $-25.20 (-23%)
25th May 13 UFC 160 - Velasquez vs. Bigfoot 2 8 4 +-100 $-8.60 (-7%) $-4.40 (-4%)
27th Jul 13 UFC on Fox 8 - Johnson vs. Moraga 11 1 +-100 $43.00 (36%) $-87.00 (-73%)
3rd Aug 13 UFC 163 - Aldo vs. Korean Zombie 10 2 +-100 $18.80 (16%) $-42.50 (-35%)
17th Aug 13 UFC Fight Night 26 - Shogun vs. Sonnen 7 6 +-100 $-23.00 (-18%) $67.00 (52%)
16th Nov 13 UFC 167 - St. Pierre vs. Hendricks 10 2 +-100 $30.90 (26%) $-48.50 (-40%)
30th Nov 13 UFC - The Ultimate Fighter 18 Finale 7 3 +-100 $3.20 (3%) $-30.90 (-31%)
7th Dec 13 UFC Fight Night 33 - Hunt vs. Bigfoot 4 6 +-100 $-50.00 (-45%) $59.00 (54%)
4th Jan 14 UFC Fight Night 34 - Saffiedine vs. Lim 7 3 +-100 $4.90 (5%) $-26.50 (-27%)
25th Jan 14 UFC on Fox 10 - Henderson vs. Thomson 8 3 +-100 $7.50 (7%) $0.00 (0%)
1st Feb 14 UFC 169 - Barao vs. Faber 2 8 4 +-100 $-0.40 (-0%) $-22.50 (-19%)
15th Feb 14 UFC Fight Night 36 - Machida vs. Mousasi 9 3 +-100 $14.50 (12%) $-40.90 (-34%)
23rd Mar 14 UFC Fight Night 38 - Shogun vs. Henderson 2 1 9 +-100 $-84.40 (-77%) $235.70 (214%)
16th Apr 14 UFC - The Ultimate Fighter Nations Finale 9 4 +-100 $-7.00 (-5%) $-28.10 (-22%)
19th Apr 14 UFC on Fox 11 - Werdum vs. Browne 9 4 +-100 $-1.20 (-1%) $-25.70 (-20%)
26th Apr 14 UFC 172 - Jones vs. Teixeira 7 3 +-100 $1.40 (1%) $-23.00 (-23%)
10th May 14 UFC Fight Night 40 - Brown vs. Silva 6 7 +-100 $-48.20 (-37%) $166.10 (128%)
7th Jun 14 UFC Fight Night 42 - Henderson vs. Khabilov 8 3 +-100 $2.80 (3%) $-44.50 (-40%)
14th Jun 14 UFC 174 - Johnson vs. Bagautinov 5 6 +-100 $-29.50 (-27%) $65.00 (59%)
28th Jun 14 UFC Fight Night 44 - Swanson vs. Stephens 8 3 +-100 $6.90 (6%) $-28.30 (-26%)
19th Jul 14 UFC Fight Night 46 - McGregor vs. Brandao 8 2 +-100 $19.30 (19%) $-43.00 (-43%)
26th Jul 14 UFC on Fox 12 - Lawler vs. Brown 10 2 +-100 $26.70 (22%) $-44.80 (-37%)
23rd Aug 14 UFC Fight Night 48 - Bisping vs. Le 7 3 +-100 $5.40 (5%) $-16.90 (-17%)
30th Aug 14 UFC 177 - Dillashaw vs. Soto 8 0 +-100 $45.00 (56%) $-80.00 (-100%)
13th Sep 14 UFC Fight Night 51 - Bigfoot vs. Arlovski 2 8 3 +-100 $19.30 (18%) $-16.00 (-15%)
7th Nov 14 UFC Fight Night - Rockhold vs. Bisping 4 5 -130 $-35.78 (-36%) $47.01 (47%)
8th Nov 14 UFC Fight Night - Shogun vs. St. Preux 7 3 -153 $2.30 (2%) $-22.90 (-23%)
15th Nov 14 UFC 180 - Werdum vs. Hunt 6 4 -123 $-11.70 (-12%) $18.40 (18%)
15th Nov 14 Belator 131 - Tito vs Bonnar 3 2 -154 $-9.16 (-18%) $5.07 (10%)
22nd Nov 14 UFC Fight Night - Edgar vs. Swanson 8 4 -123 $2.10 (2%) $4.10 (3%)
6th Dec 14 UFC 181 - Hendricks vs. Lawler 2 7 4 -163 $-16.30 (-15%) $-6.95 (-6%)
12th Dec 14 UFC - The Ultimate Fighter 20 Finale 6 4 -159 $-17.80 (-18%) $-4.10 (-4%)
13th Dec 14 WSOF 16 - Palhares vs. Fitch 2 0 -136 $14.79 (74%) $-20.00 (-100%)
13th Dec 14 UFC on Fox 13 - Dos Santos vs. Miocic 8 4 -131 $-4.70 (-4%) $17.40 (15%)
20th Dec 14 UFC Fight Night - Machida vs. Dollaway 9 3 -166 $8.83 (7%) $-23.95 (-20%)
3rd Jan 15 UFC 182 - Jones vs. Cormier 7 4 -152 $-11.81 (-11%) $-4.31 (-4%)
18th Jan 15 UFC Fight Night - McGregor vs. Siver 9 2 -149 $22.00 (18%) $-64.00 (-53%)
24th Jan 15 UFC on Fox 14 - Gustafsson vs. Johnson 5 7 -106 $-49.60 (-41%) $90.10 (75%)
31st Jan 15 UFC 183 - Silva vs. Diaz 7 4 -146 $-9.10 (-8%) $-5.70 (-5%)
14th Feb 15 UFC Fight Night - Henderson vs Thatch 7 3 -166 $1.80 (2%) $-28.60 (-29%)
22nd Feb 15 UFC Fight Night - Mir vs. Bigfoot 1 10 +221 $-95.50 (-87%) $293.00 (266%)
28th Feb 15 UFC 184 - Rousey vs. Zingano 8 2 -186 $12.00 (12%) $-39.20 (-39%)
14th Mar 15 UFC 185 - Pettis vs. Dos Anjos 7 5 -139 $-27.70 (-23%) $55.00 (46%)
21st Mar 15 UFC Fight Night - Maia vs. LaFlare 8 4 -154 $-5.38 (-4%) $-14.76 (-12%)
4th Apr 15 UFC Fight Night - Mendes vs. Lamas 7 3 -146 $6.50 (7%) $-23.30 (-23%)
10th Apr 15 Bellator 136 - Brooks vs. Jansen 1 1 +-100 $-8.30 (-42%) $4.30 (22%)
11th Apr 15 UFC Fight Night - Gonzaga vs. Cro Cop 2 7 5 -103 $-6.00 (-5%) $54.00 (45%)
18th Apr 15 UFC on Fox 15 - Rockhold vs. Machida 7 4 -122 $-2.60 (-2%) $27.60 (25%)
25th Apr 15 UFC 186 - Johnson vs. Horiguchi 11 1 -213 $37.30 (31%) $-91.40 (-76%)
9th May 15 UFC Fight Night - Hunt vs. Miocic 4 8 +107 $-57.99 (-48%) $89.11 (74%)
16th May 15 UFC Fight Night - Edgar vs. Faber 8 4 -128 $7.30 (6%) $-11.70 (-10%)
23rd May 15 UFC 187 - Cormier vs. Johnson 8 2 -198 $1.13 (1%) $-8.90 (-8%)
30th May 15 UFC Fight Night - Condit vs. Alves 9 3 -148 $15.70 (13%) $-36.90 (-31%)
6th Jun 15 UFC Fight Night - Boetsch vs. Henderson 6 6 +107 $-17.67 (-15%) $40.82 (34%)
13th Jun 15 UFC 188 - Velasquez vs. Werdum 4 7 -109 $-61.00 (-55%) $103.50 (94%)
20th Jun 15 UFC Fight Night - Jedrzejczyk vs. Penne 7 4 -123 $-3.07 (-3%) $8.69 (8%)
27th Jun 15 UFC Fight Night - Machida vs. Romero 6 3 -147 $0.20 (0%) $-21.50 (-24%)
11th Jul 15 UFC 189 - McGregor vs. Mendes 6 5 -135 $-24.98 (-23%) $20.66 (19%)
12th Jul 15 UFC - The Ultimate Fighter 21 Finale 6 5 -128 $-18.62 (-17%) $17.96 (16%)
15th Jul 15 UFC Fight Night - Mir vs. Duffee 9 2 -179 $19.20 (16%) $-62.00 (-52%)
17th Jul 15 Bellator 140 - Lima vs. Koreshkov 1 1 -188 $-9.09 (-45%) $5.77 (29%)
18th Jul 15 UFC Fight Night - Bisping vs. Leites 10 2 -161 $35.10 (29%) $-67.82 (-57%)
25th Jul 15 UFC on Fox 16 - Dillashaw vs. Barao 2 7 5 -121 $-9.91 (-8%) $3.52 (3%)
1st Aug 15 UFC 190 - Rousey vs. Correia 9 4 -138 $2.32 (2%) $-1.76 (-1%)
1st Aug 15 WSOF 22 - Palhares vs. Shields 3 0 -186 $17.02 (57%) $-30.00 (-100%)
8th Aug 15 UFC Fight Night - St. Preux vs. Teixeira 9 3 -172 $7.90 (6%) $-42.10 (-32%)
23rd Aug 15 UFC Fight Night 74 - Holloway vs. Oliveira 5 7 +104 $-45.40 (-38%) $85.20 (71%)
28th Aug 15 Bellator 141 - Guillard vs. Girtz 3 2 -135 $-7.10 (-14%) $14.70 (29%)
5th Sep 15 UFC 191 - Johnson vs. Dodson 2 5 6 -120 $-40.80 (-37%) $62.50 (57%)
19th Sep 15 Bellator 142 - Dynamite 4 0 -455 $9.10 (23%) $-40.00 (-100%)
25th Sep 15 Bellator 143: Davis vs. Warren 2 0 -252 $8.70 (44%) $-20.00 (-100%)
26th Sep 15 UFC Fight Night - Barnett vs. Nelson 7 2 -150 $10.80 (11%) $0.70 (1%)
3rd Oct 15 UFC 192 - Cormier vs. Gustafsson 9 3 -175 $7.61 (6%) $-48.67 (-41%)
17th Oct 15 WSOF 24: Fitch vs. Okami 5 2 -260 $-5.40 (-6%) $-26.60 (-30%)
23rd Oct 15 Bellator 144: Halsey vs. Carvalho 1 1 +167 $-4.30 (-22%) $70.00 (350%)
24th Oct 15 UFC Fight Night 76 - Holohan vs. Smolka 6 2 -130 $14.96 (15%) $-18.41 (-18%)
31st Oct 15 KSW 32 - Road to Wembley 3 1 -121 $7.10 (18%) $-3.50 (-9%)
6th Nov 15 Bellator 145 - Vengeance 1 1 +111 $-7.30 (-24%) $11.00 (37%)
7th Nov 15 UFC Fight Night 77: Belfort vs. Henderson 3 10 3 -178 $14.10 (11%) $-59.00 (-45%)
14th Nov 15 UFC 193 - Rousey vs. Holm 8 5 -141 $-18.34 (-14%) $104.44 (80%)
20th Nov 15 Bellator 146: Kato vs. Manhoef 3 1 +535 $7.20 (14%) $-18.00 (-36%)
20th Nov 15 WSOF 25 - 8-Man Lightweight Tournament 3 1 -206 $-2.30 (-6%) $-7.00 (-18%)
21st Nov 15 UFC Fight Night 78 - Magny vs. Gastelum 7 6 -112 $-21.36 (-16%) $35.44 (27%)
28th Nov 15 UFC Fight Night 79 - Henderson vs. Masvidal 5 6 -121 $-35.19 (-32%) $29.92 (27%)
28th Nov 15 KSW 33 - Materla vs. Khalidov 1 2 -117 $-15.10 (-38%) $27.35 (68%)
4th Dec 15 Bellator 147: Thomson vs. Villaseca 2 1 -162 $-0.90 (-2%) $-8.40 (-21%)
10th Dec 15 UFC Fight Night - VanZant vs Namajunas 8 3 -174 $3.00 (3%) $-32.42 (-29%)
12th Dec 15 UFC - The Ultimate Fighter 22 Finale 7 3 -133 $14.90 (15%) $-33.80 (-34%)
12th Dec 15 UFC 194 - Aldo vs. McGregor 6 6 -128 $-34.30 (-29%) $55.40 (46%)
19th Dec 15 UFC on Fox 17 - Dos Anjos vs. Cerrone 2 5 7 +130 $-35.30 (-29%) $117.60 (98%)
31st Dec 15 Rizin FF - 2 1 0 -1,000 $1.00 (10%) $-10.00 (-100%)
2nd Jan 16 UFC 195 - Lawler vs Condit 7 4 -123 $-2.70 (-2%) $3.20 (3%)
17th Jan 16 UFC Fight Night - Dillashaw vs. Cruz 6 7 -116 $-43.20 (-33%) $52.80 (41%)
23rd Jan 16 WSOF 27: Firmino vs. Fodor 2 0 -241 $8.30 (42%) $-20.00 (-100%)
29th Jan 16 Bellator 148 - Daley vs. Uhrich 2 0 -303 $4.70 (16%) $-20.00 (-67%)
30th Jan 16 UFC on Fox 18 - Johnson vs. Bader 8 4 -113 $9.70 (7%) $0.80 (1%)
6th Feb 16 UFC Fight Night 82 - Hendricks vs. Thompson 6 6 -126 $-37.30 (-31%) $50.80 (42%)
19th Feb 16 Bellator 149: Shamrock vs. Gracie 3 2 3 +101 $-18.10 (-36%) $28.50 (57%)
21st Feb 16 UFC Fight Night 82 - Cerrone vs. Oliveira 9 4 -142 $6.00 (5%) $-22.07 (-17%)
26th Feb 16 Bellator 150 - Galvao vs. Dantas 2 2 1 -173 $-2.40 (-8%) $-6.50 (-22%)
27th Feb 16 UFC Fight Night 84 - Silva vs. Bisping 10 3 -161 $18.61 (14%) $-48.69 (-37%)
4th Mar 16 Bellator 151 - Warren vs. Caldwell 1 3 +127 $-27.20 (-68%) $62.20 (156%)
4th Mar 16 Titan FC 37 - Simon vs. Dos Santos 1 0 -667 $1.50 (15%) $-10.00 (-100%)
5th Mar 16 UFC 196 - McGregor vs. Diaz 5 7 +117 $-41.90 (-35%) $109.10 (91%)
11th Mar 16 Invicta FC 16 - Hamasaki vs. Brown 2 3 +105 $-17.80 (-36%) $26.00 (52%)
12th Mar 16 WSOF 29 - Gaethje vs. Foster 1 1 -163 $-6.90 (-35%) $1.00 (5%)
19th Mar 16 UFC Fight Night 84 - Hunt vs. Mir 5 7 -109 $-42.80 (-36%) $65.50 (55%)
3rd Apr 16 WSOF 30: Branch vs. Starks 3 0 -242 $12.50 (42%) $-30.00 (-100%)
10th Apr 16 UFC Fight Night 86 - Zagreb 9 4 -130 $17.40 (13%) $-38.50 (-30%)
16th Apr 16 UFC on Fox 19 - Teixeira vs. Evans 8 3 -146 $13.60 (12%) $-34.00 (-31%)
17th Apr 16 Bellator 152 - Freire vs. Souza 1 2 -134 $-18.60 (-62%) $17.50 (58%)
23rd Apr 16 Bellator 153 - Koreshkov vs. Henderson 3 2 -129 $-10.90 (-22%) $37.20 (74%)
23rd Apr 16 UFC 197 - Jones vs. St Preux 10 2 -184 $25.60 (21%) $-68.00 (-57%)
7th May 16 Invicta FC 17: Evinger vs. Schneider 3 2 -142 $-6.00 (-12%) $-3.50 (-7%)
8th May 16 UFC Fight Night - Overeem vs. Arlovski 9 4 -163 $-2.60 (-2%) $-33.50 (-26%)
14th May 16 UFC 198 - Werdum vs. Miocic 6 5 -126 $-27.30 (-23%) $53.50 (45%)
15th May 16 Bellator 154 - Davis vs. King Mo 2 0 -199 $10.10 (51%) $-20.00 (-100%)
20th May 16 Bellator 155 - Carvalho vs. Manhoef 4 1 -127 $11.00 (22%) $10.10 (20%)
29th May 16 UFC Fight Night - Almeida vs. Garbrandt 6 5 -108 $-12.60 (-11%) $25.50 (21%)
4th Jun 16 UFC 199 - Rockhold vs Bisping 2 7 5 -102 $-6.70 (-5%) $59.50 (46%)
10th Jun 16 Titan FC 39: Cavalcante vs. Healy 5 2 +-100 $3.50 (5%) $-20.40 (-29%)
17th Jun 16 Bellator 156 - Galvao vs. Dantas 2 1 0 -154 $6.50 (65%) $-10.00 (-100%)
18th Jun 16 UFC Fight Night - MacDonald vs. Thompson 10 3 -140 $31.10 (24%) $-57.20 (-44%)
24th Jun 16 Bellator 157 - Dynamite 2 2 1 +-100 $-3.50 (-12%) $-5.50 (-18%)
7th Jul 16 UFC Fight Night - Dos Anjos vs. Alvarez 8 4 -140 $3.30 (3%) $-21.00 (-18%)
8th Jul 16 UFC - The Ultimate Fighter 23 Finale 9 3 -147 $21.00 (18%) $-49.90 (-42%)
9th Jul 16 UFC 200 - Tate vs. Nunes 7 5 -146 $-19.90 (-17%) $0.50 (0%)
13th Jul 16 UFC Fight Night 91 - McDonald vs. Lineker 4 8 -100 $-64.40 (-54%) $90.00 (75%)
16th Jul 16 Bellator 158 - Daley vs. Lima 4 0 +-100 $12.70 (32%) $-40.00 (-100%)
23rd Jul 16 UFC on Fox 20 - Holm vs. Shevchenko 6 5 -131 $-24.20 (-22%) $18.50 (17%)
29th Jul 16 Invicta FC 18 - Grasso vs. Esquibel 2 0 +-100 $8.90 (45%) $-20.00 (-100%)
30th Jul 16 UFC 201 - Lawler vs. Woodley 6 4 -115 $-3.30 (-3%) $5.50 (5%)
6th Aug 16 UFC Fight Night 92 - Rodriguez vs. Caceres 11 1 -169 $52.90 (44%) $-98.00 (-82%)
20th Aug 16 UFC 202 - Diaz vs. McGregor 2 9 3 -146 $20.10 (17%) $-42.00 (-35%)
26th Aug 16 Bellator 160 Henderson vs. Pitbull 1 0 -200 $5.00 (50%) $-10.00 (-100%)
27th Aug 16 UFC on Fox 21 - Condit vs. Maia 7 3 -150 $5.70 (6%) $-32.00 (-32%)
3rd Sep 16 UFC Fight Night - Arlovski vs. Barnett 7 3 -169 $0.20 (0%) $-30.70 (-28%)
10th Sep 16 UFC 203 - Miocic vs. Overeem 9 1 -164 $43.00 (43%) $-77.00 (-77%)
17th Sep 16 UFC Fight Night 94 - Poirier vs. Johnson 7 4 -151 $-7.70 (-6%) $-17.70 (-15%)
23rd Sep 16 Invicta FC 19 Maia vs. Modafferi 1 0 -233 $4.30 (43%) $-10.00 (-100%)
24th Sep 16 UFC Fight Night 95 - Brasilia 8 5 -128 $-8.90 (-7%) $33.00 (25%)
1st Oct 16 UFC Fight Night 96 - Lineker vs. Dodson 4 8 +123 $-52.70 (-44%) $114.00 (95%)
7th Oct 16 WSOF 33 Gaethje vs. Dugulubgov 2 2 -194 $-11.10 (-28%) $9.20 (23%)
8th Oct 16 UFC 204 - Bisping vs. Henderson 2 6 5 -128 $-23.40 (-21%) $20.50 (19%)
21st Oct 16 Bellator 162 Shlemenko vs. Grove 5 1 -180 $13.30 (22%) $-36.40 (-61%)
5th Nov 16 UFC Mexico City 8 5 -142 $-10.70 (-8%) $-12.20 (-9%)
12th Nov 16 UFC 205 - New York City 5 5 -115 $-23.10 (-21%) $24.80 (23%)
19th Nov 16 UFC Fight Night 99 - Mousasi vs. Hall 10 3 -131 $31.90 (25%) $-42.50 (-33%)
19th Nov 16 UFC Fight Night 100 Bader vs. Nogueira 2 8 4 -159 $-5.80 (-5%) $-25.20 (-21%)
19th Nov 16 Bellator 165 Chandler vs. Henderson 3 0 -202 $15.70 (52%) $-30.00 (-100%)
26th Nov 16 UFC Fight Night 101 5 8 +116 $-38.80 (-30%) $82.50 (63%)
2nd Dec 16 Bellator 166 Dantas vs. Warren 2 1 0 +-100 $4.90 (49%) $-10.00 (-100%)
3rd Dec 16 UFC - The Ultimate Fighter 24 Finale 8 4 -136 $7.40 (6%) $-26.20 (-22%)
9th Dec 16 UFC Fight Night 102 Albany 12 0 -219 $56.30 (47%) $-120.00 (-100%)
10th Dec 16 UFC 206 6 5 -113 $-14.30 (-12%) $15.00 (13%)
17th Dec 16 UFC on Fox 22 9 4 -114 $22.20 (17%) $-17.80 (-14%)
31st Dec 16 UFC 207 6 3 -112 $10.30 (11%) $-11.50 (-13%)
14th Jan 17 Invicta FC 21 Anderson vs. Tweet 2 2 +-100 $-12.50 (-31%) $17.40 (44%)
15th Jan 17 UFC Fight Night 103 Rodriguez vs. Penn 10 2 -142 $44.90 (37%) $-74.00 (-62%)
28th Jan 17 UFC on FOX 23 Shevchenko vs. Pena 9 3 -145 $25.00 (21%) $-58.60 (-49%)
4th Feb 17 UFC FN 104 K. Zombie vs. Bermudez 7 5 -116 $-13.00 (-11%) $33.40 (28%)
11th Feb 17 UFC 208 8 2 -202 $12.40 (12%) $-54.20 (-54%)
18th Feb 17 Bellator 172 1 2 +123 $-16.40 (-55%) $36.50 (122%)
19th Feb 17 UFC Fight Night 105 Lewis vs. Browne 8 3 -163 $7.20 (7%) $-33.00 (-30%)
4th Mar 17 UFC 209 6 5 +124 $-4.30 (-4%) $87.60 (80%)
11th Mar 17 UFC Fight Night 106 Belfort vs. Gastelum 9 2 -141 $33.90 (28%) $-53.50 (-45%)
18th Mar 17 UFC Fight Night 107 Manuwa vs. Anderson 6 5 -137 $-22.80 (-21%) $5.80 (5%)
18th Mar 17 WSOF 35 Ivanov vs. Jordan 4 0 -186 $22.70 (57%) $-40.00 (-100%)
25th Mar 17 Invicta FC 22 2 2 -103 $-8.60 (-22%) $15.70 (39%)
8th Apr 17 UFC 210 - Cormier vs. Johnson 2 8 5 -144 $-12.80 (-10%) $-6.90 (-5%)
15th Apr 17 UFC on Fox 24 - Johnson vs Reis 9 4 -149 $0.40 (0%) $-8.50 (-7%)
16th Apr 17 Rizin FF 5: Sakura 2 0 +-100 $6.70 (34%) $-20.00 (-100%)
22nd Apr 17 UFC Fight Night 108 Swanson vs. Lobov 11 2 -181 $35.70 (27%) $-84.50 (-65%)
13th May 17 UFC 211 - Miocic vs. Dos Santos 7 4 -131 $3.90 (4%) $-21.50 (-20%)
19th May 17 Bellator 179 Daley vs. MacDonald 2 1 -171 $-3.47 (-12%) $-4.00 (-13%)
28th May 17 UFC Fight Night 109 Gustafsson Vs Teixeira 7 5 -117 $-15.80 (-13%) $48.00 (40%)
3rd Jun 17 UFC 212 Aldo vs Holloway 9 3 -131 $22.00 (18%) $-29.00 (-24%)
10th Jun 17 UFC Fight Night 110 Hunt vs. Lewis 7 4 -146 $-7.30 (-7%) $-13.50 (-12%)
17th Jun 17 UFC Fight Night 111 10 2 -197 $18.80 (16%) $-45.90 (-38%)
24th Jun 17 Bellator 180 Sonnen vs. Silva 3 3 +115 $-10.51 (-13%) $58.00 (73%)
25th Jun 17 UFC Fight Night 112 9 4 -134 $8.70 (7%) $-15.80 (-12%)
7th Jul 17 TUF Season 25 Finale 7 4 -142 $-10.20 (-9%) $6.00 (5%)
8th Jul 17 UFC 213 10 0 -162 $51.00 (46%) $-100.00 (-91%)
11th Jul 17 Dana White's TNCS 1 4 1 -126 $18.30 (37%) $-22.60 (-45%)
16th Jul 17 UFC Fight Night 113 9 2 -137 $22.70 (19%) $-58.00 (-48%)
18th Jul 17 Dana White's TNCS 2 2 0 +320 $13.78 (28%) $-20.00 (-40%)
22nd Jul 17 UFC on Fox 25 6 7 -105 $-40.90 (-31%) $61.60 (47%)
4th Aug 17 LFA 18: Aguilar VS. Rader 1 1 +-100 $-3.29 (-16%) $1.10 (6%)
8th Aug 17 DWTNCS 5 4 1 -175 $10.13 (20%) $-30.00 (-60%)
15th Aug 17 DWTNCS 6 3 2 +-100 $-1.80 (-4%) $7.00 (14%)
2nd Sep 17 UFC Fight Night Struve vs. Volkov 11 1 -200 $42.12 (35%) $-93.50 (-78%)
9th Sep 17 UFC 215 4 7 +111 $-50.90 (-46%) $109.00 (99%)
16th Sep 17 UFC Fight Night 116 Rockhold vs. Branch 8 2 +-100 $15.80 (16%) $-42.50 (-43%)
22nd Sep 17 UFC Fight Night 117 St. Preux vs. Shogun 2 5 4 +-100 $-14.50 (-15%) $18.80 (19%)
    1164 (65%) 614 (35%) +114 $-419.62 (-2%) $-158.15 (-1%)

MMA Fighter Win % Breakdown by Odds

Key

% Win Chance: A conversion of the bookmaker's odds into their % probability of a win for fighters in this odds range.
% Won: The percentage of fighters that actually won in that odds range.
Avg % Win Chance: The average bookmaker odds for the fighters in this odds range.
= Odds of: Avg % Win Chance converted into odds format.
Over / Under Perform: Here we compare the Avg % Win Chance (i.e. what percentage of the fights the bookmaker says these fighters should win), with how many actually won. Over performing means more fighters are winning in this odds bracket than should and under performing (negative number) means this odds range under performs and would not be good to bet on.

% Win Chance =Odds Fights Won Lost % Won % Won Avg % Win Chance = Odds Over / Under Perform Bet $10 on
all fights (ROI)
<10% +900 7 1 6
 
14% 8% +1,149 6%
 
$55 (78%)
10-15% +900 to +567 47 4 43
 
9% 13% +683 -4%
 
$-157 (-33%)
15-20% +567 to +400 88 15 73
 
17% 18% +466 -1%
 
$-31 (-4%)
20-25% +400 to +300 152 25 127
 
16% 22% +351 -6%
 
$-393 (-26%)
25-30% +300 to +233 189 47 142
 
25% 27% +266 -2%
 
$-171 (-9%)
30-35% +233 to +186 230 76 154
 
33% 33% +207 0%
 
$31 (1%)
35-40% +186 to +150 245 101 144
 
41% 37% +168 4%
 
$260 (11%)
40-45% +150 to +122 289 139 150
 
48% 42% +137 6%
 
$407 (14%)
45-50% +122 to +100 220 104 116
 
47% 47% +112 0%
 
$4 (0%)
50-55% +100 to -122 253 134 119
 
53% 52% -110 1%
 
$27 (1%)
55-60% -122 to -150 284 142 142
 
50% 58% -137 -8%
 
$-387 (-14%)
60-65% -150 to -186 264 146 118
 
55% 63% -168 -7%
 
$-309 (-12%)
65-70% -186 to -233 242 164 78
 
68% 68% -210 0%
 
$1 (0%)
70-75% -233 to -300 156 115 41
 
74% 73% -264 1%
 
$25 (2%)
75-80% -300 to -400 159 131 28
 
82% 77% -336 5%
 
$110 (7%)
80-85% -400 to -567 134 111 23
 
83% 82% -461 1%
 
$11 (1%)
85-90% -567 to -900 42 38 4
 
90% 87% -689 3%
 
$15 (4%)
90% + -900 19 17 2
 
89% 92% -1,095 -2%
 
$-4 (-2%)
      1510 1510              

Analysis as of 1st July 2015 (by Mike). You can see there's a real dead zone in terms of slight to fairly significant favorites massively under performing compared to their suggested win percentage. I would suggest this is market forces, whereby bettors are putting money on slight favorites and pushing out their odds beyond what should really be a pickem fight. As a result, betting on slight to fairly signifincant underdogs is massively more productive and successful. As it stands now, you could blindly bet on all dogs in this range and make money, so with that a base to your logic, if you are handicapping fights, this is a great place to start!

Massive favorites are currently slightly outperforming their odds but with such fine margins, it's super important to get the best odds possible. Casually betting on big favorites with one bookmaker and not shopping around, would likely end up losing you money.

Winner Odds By Card Position

Draws and NCs have been excluded.

Position Fights Fav Wins   % Dog Wins   % Avg Odds (Winner) Fav | Dog $10 on all Favs $10 on all Dogs
Main Event 186 133 72% 53 28% -102
 
$-281 (ROI: -15%) $-220 (ROI: -12%)
Co Main 177 122 69% 55 31% +101
 
$-372 (ROI: -21%) $-215 (ROI: -12%)
3 165 112 68% 53 32% +102
 
$-409 (ROI: -25%) $-173 (ROI: -10%)
4 167 119 71% 48 29% +109
 
$-292 (ROI: -18%) $-209 (ROI: -13%)
5 161 112 70% 49 30% +109
 
$-382 (ROI: -24%) $-129 (ROI: -8%)
6 145 109 75% 36 25% +102
 
$-165 (ROI: -11%) $-459 (ROI: -32%)
7 143 107 75% 36 25% +105
 
$-207 (ROI: -14%) $-429 (ROI: -30%)
8 149 103 69% 46 31% +116
 
$-309 (ROI: -21%) $-216 (ROI: -14%)
9 135 98 73% 37 27% +108
 
$-195 (ROI: -14%) $-393 (ROI: -29%)
10 135 93 69% 42 31% +121
 
$-303 (ROI: -22%) $-185 (ROI: -14%)
11 120 84 70% 36 30% +113
 
$-227 (ROI: -19%) $-159 (ROI: -13%)
12 85 61 72% 24 28% -101
 
$-80 (ROI: -9%) $-235 (ROI: -28%)
13 34 24 71% 10 29% +106
 
$-44 (ROI: -13%) $-81 (ROI: -24%)

MMA Handicapper Directory Performance

Tracking all handicappers in our MMA Handicapper directory, here is their performance on underdogs vs favorites. Big favorite constitutes a higher than 65% chance of winning, according to the bookmaker odds. Big underdog is less than 35%.

  Picks Correct % Correct Units Bet Units Profit Profit per Pick ROI
Big Favorites 6461 (27%) 4796 74% 31,557.56 596.34 0.09 2%
Slight Favorites 7174 (30%) 4055 57% 28,610.83 -1,109.40 -0.15 -4%
Slight Underdogs 7152 (30%) 3323 46% 22,600.04 2,520.07 0.35 11%
Big Underdogs 2939 (12%) 835 28% 7,186.78 568.85 0.19 8%

Our Wisdom of Crowds Betting on Underdogs vs Favorites

For the fights where we made a unit bet in the Wisdom of Crowds, the stats are as follows;

Favourite Wins: 129 (59%)
Underdog Wins: 91 (41%)

We Picked Favourite: 150 (68%) of which 91 won (61%) for a total profit / loss of 21.58 units.
We Picked Underdog: 70 (32%) of which 32 won (46%) for a total profit / loss of 160.22 units.

Conclusion

So which is better? Well the UFC Fight Night - Mir vs. Bigfoot event was the biggest upset event in MMA history. Of 11 fights, 10 underdogs won, taking the bookmakers to the cleaners! In general, our period of events so far has been much more favorable to underdogs than normal. In general, according to MMA Junkie, 31.5% of underdogs won in 2014 (UFC fights only). Whereas under our system so far, that stands at 35%. Of the fights we picked, that's even higher, at 41%.

This page will continue to update automatically, so check back at any time for the latest statistic of which is better to pick in UFC / MMA fights: underdogs or favorites.

Notes & Donations

Althought the stats pages are programmed to update automatically, the base information is all added manually. If you noticed I've missed off a debut, or incorrectly marked a fighter as a debut, please let me know on twitter or facebook.

If these stats have helped you, or if you just appreciate the effort, you're more than welcome to donate. Any small amount is greatly appreciated! :)


 
 
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