MMA Betting - Favorites vs Underdogs, which is better?!?!
When betting on MMA should you bet on the favorites or the underdogs? This page continually updates with all major MMA / UFC fights. We'll have a look at simply betting on all favorites or underdogs, we'll break things down by the position on the fight card and we'll look at all levels of underdog / favorite to see what sort of odds over / under-perform their predicted win percentage.
Note, these results use best available odds at either the time the lines closed, just before the fight, or around 7 hours before the first fight of the night, where possible (events after 7th Nov 2014). Of course, if you bet several days / weeks before the fight, you'll get different odds.
MMA / UFC Betting - Favorite vs Underdog Returns over Time
The following MMA stats are based on a $10 bet on the favourite / underdog for every fight on the card.
% Win Chance: A conversion of the bookmaker's odds into their % probability of a win for fighters in this odds range. % Won: The percentage of fighters that actually won in that odds range. Avg % Win Chance: The average bookmaker odds for the fighters in this odds range. = Odds of: Avg % Win Chance converted into odds format. Over / Under Perform: Here we compare the Avg % Win Chance (i.e. what percentage of the fights the bookmaker says these fighters should win), with how many actually won. Over performing means more fighters are winning in this odds bracket than should and under performing (negative number) means this odds range under performs and would not be good to bet on.
% Win Chance
=Odds
Fights
Won
Lost
% Won
% Won
Avg % Win Chance
= Odds
Over / Under Perform
Bet $10 on
all fights (ROI)
<10%
+900
28
4
24
14%
8%
+1,132
6%
$213 (76%)
10-15%
+900 to +567
138
11
127
8%
13%
+684
-5%
$-517 (-37%)
15-20%
+567 to +400
274
42
232
15%
18%
+470
-2%
$-344 (-13%)
20-25%
+400 to +300
434
78
356
18%
22%
+351
-4%
$-824 (-19%)
25-30%
+300 to +233
593
159
434
27%
27%
+265
-1%
$-134 (-2%)
30-35%
+233 to +186
693
225
468
32%
33%
+206
-0%
$-35 (-1%)
35-40%
+186 to +150
764
298
466
39%
37%
+168
2%
$346 (5%)
40-45%
+150 to +122
896
392
504
44%
42%
+138
2%
$350 (4%)
45-50%
+122 to +100
641
311
330
49%
47%
+112
1%
$174 (3%)
50-55%
+100 to -122
807
413
394
51%
52%
-110
-1%
$-173 (-2%)
55-60%
-122 to -150
801
440
361
55%
58%
-137
-3%
$-400 (-5%)
60-65%
-150 to -186
819
488
331
60%
62%
-167
-3%
$-380 (-5%)
65-70%
-186 to -233
717
485
232
68%
68%
-209
0%
$5 (0%)
70-75%
-233 to -300
509
365
144
72%
72%
-262
-1%
$-49 (-1%)
75-80%
-300 to -400
461
363
98
79%
77%
-334
2%
$108 (2%)
80-85%
-400 to -567
365
314
51
86%
82%
-461
4%
$172 (5%)
85-90%
-567 to -900
155
133
22
86%
87%
-675
-1%
$-23 (-1%)
90% +
-900
66
61
5
92%
92%
-1,101
1%
$5 (1%)
4582
4579
You can see there's a dead zone in terms of slight to fairly significant favorites under performing compared to their suggested win percentage. I would suggest this is market forces, whereby bettors are putting money on slight favorites and pushing out their odds beyond what should really be a pickem fight. As a result, betting on slight to fairly signifincant underdogs is massively more productive and successful. As it stands now, you could blindly bet on all dogs in this range and make money, so with that a base to your logic, if you are handicapping fights, this is a great place to start!
Massive favorites are currently slightly outperforming their odds but with such fine margins, it's super important to get the best odds possible. Casually betting on big favorites with one bookmaker and not shopping around, would likely end up losing you money.
Winner Odds By Card Position
Draws and NCs have been excluded.
Position
Fights
Fav Wins
%
Dog Wins
%
Avg Odds (Winner)
Fav | Dog
$10 on all Favs
$10 on all Dogs
Main Event
510
356
70%
154
30%
-113
$inf (ROI: inf%)
$-435 (ROI: -9%)
Co Main
487
313
64%
174
36%
-109
$inf (ROI: inf%)
$85 (ROI: 2%)
3
475
327
69%
148
31%
-114
$inf (ROI: inf%)
$-532 (ROI: -11%)
4
475
336
71%
139
29%
-111
$inf (ROI: inf%)
$-570 (ROI: -12%)
5
453
318
70%
135
30%
-109
$inf (ROI: inf%)
$-699 (ROI: -15%)
6
417
286
69%
131
31%
-108
$inf (ROI: inf%)
$-356 (ROI: -9%)
7
385
276
72%
109
28%
-113
$inf (ROI: inf%)
$-808 (ROI: -21%)
8
415
288
69%
127
31%
-104
$inf (ROI: inf%)
$-460 (ROI: -11%)
9
372
255
69%
117
31%
-111
$inf (ROI: inf%)
$-585 (ROI: -16%)
10
365
255
70%
110
30%
-103
$inf (ROI: inf%)
$-570 (ROI: -16%)
11
326
220
67%
106
33%
-102
$inf (ROI: inf%)
$-226 (ROI: -7%)
12
235
166
71%
69
29%
-117
$inf (ROI: inf%)
$-512 (ROI: -22%)
13
111
79
71%
32
29%
-120
$inf (ROI: inf%)
$-256 (ROI: -23%)
MMA Handicapper Directory Performance
Tracking all handicappers in our MMA Handicapper directory, here is their performance on underdogs vs favorites. Big favorite constitutes a higher than 65% chance of winning, according to the bookmaker odds. Big underdog is less than 35%.
Picks
Correct
% Correct
Units Bet
Units Profit
Profit per Pick
ROI
Big Favorites
87287 (18%)
64210
74%
341,567.22
7,004.78
0.08
2%
Slight Favorites
162597 (34%)
91558
56%
449,813.14
-13,290.71
-0.08
-3%
Slight Underdogs
158017 (33%)
70625
45%
339,694.41
15,324.53
0.10
5%
Big Underdogs
66351 (14%)
18314
28%
113,562.47
80.99
0.00
0%
Conclusion
So which is better? Well the UFC Fight Night - Mir vs. Bigfoot event was the biggest upset event in MMA history. Of 11 fights, 10 underdogs won, taking the bookmakers to the cleaners! In general, our period of events so far has been much more favorable to underdogs than normal. In general, according to MMA Junkie, 31.5% of underdogs won in 2014 (UFC fights only). Whereas under our system so far, that stands at
34%. Of the fights we picked, that's even higher, at nan%.
This page will continue to update automatically, so check back at any time for the latest statistic of which is better to pick in UFC / MMA fights: underdogs or favorites.
Notes & Donations
Althought the stats pages are programmed to update automatically, the base information is all added manually. If you noticed I've missed off a debut, or incorrectly marked a fighter as a debut, please let me know on twitter or facebook.
If these stats have helped you, or if you just appreciate the effort, you're more than welcome to donate. Any small amount is greatly appreciated! :)