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Total MMA Handicappers: 450
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Event Predictions

UFC Fight Night - Mendes vs. Lamas

Fairfax, Virginia
2015-04-04 09:00:00

Favourite wins: 7
Underdog wins: 3
$10 on all favourites nets: $6.50
$10 on all underdogs nets: $-23.30

Unit Betting
Units Bet: 23.5. Profit: 4.04
Total Unit Profit: 4.04

$10 Average Betting System
$10 on all our picks (raw): $10.00 (7 right, 3 wrong)
$10 on all our picks (weighted): $10.00 (7 right, 3 wrong)
Weighted betting profit: $14.32 (7 right, 3 wrong)
Value betting profit: $14.32 (7 right, 3 wrong)

Average Bet Rating: Moderate
Average Value Bet Rating: Moderate

Key  
Bookies Odds Bookmaker Odds
Raw Picks Raw Picks
Raw Picks Crowd Prediction
Raw Picks Weighted Crowd Prediction
Raw Picks Your Prediction
Raw Picks Your Confidence
Raw Picks Bookmaker Favourite
Raw Picks Crowd Weighted Pick
Raw Picks Your Pick
Raw Picks Value Pick

Bookies FavouriteCrowd Weighted PickValue Pick
Fighter Wikipedia Page Fighter Record on Sherdog UFC Fighter Profile Chad Mendes vs Ricardo Lamas Fighter Wikipedia Page Fighter Record on Sherdog UFC Fighter Profile
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80%
   
21%
191 (91)%
 
18 (9)%
92%
 
8%
83%
 
17%
WON
Pick Rating Low #9
LOST
@1.25 Suggested Bet: 0.25 units on Chad Mendes: Returned 0.06 Units   @4.76
$10 Bet Profit: $2.5 #9 Ranked $3.64 Bet Profit: $0.91 #9 Ranked $3.64 Value Bet Profit: $0.91

Crowd Weighted PickValue Pick
Fighter Wikipedia Page Fighter Record on Sherdog UFC Fighter Profile Al Iaquinta vs Jorge Masvidal Fighter Wikipedia Page Fighter Record on Sherdog UFC Fighter Profile
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46%
   
56%
119 (65)%
 
65 (35)%
67%
 
33%
72%
 
28%
Bookies Favourite
WON
Pick Rating Good+ #1
LOST
@2.17 Suggested Bet: 5.5 units on Al Iaquinta: Returned 6.44 Units   @1.79
$10 Bet Profit: $11.7 #1 Ranked $18.18 Bet Profit: $21.27 #1 Ranked $18.18 Value Bet Profit: $21.27

Bookies FavouriteCrowd Weighted PickValue Pick
Fighter Wikipedia Page Fighter Record on Sherdog UFC Fighter Profile Michael Chiesa vs Mitch Clarke Fighter Wikipedia Page Fighter Record on Sherdog UFC Fighter Profile
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78%
   
25%
136 (87)%
 
21 (13)%
87%
 
13%
81%
 
19%
WON
Pick Rating Low #10
LOST
@1.28 Suggested Bet: 0.25 units on Michael Chiesa: Returned 0.07 Units   @4.00
$10 Bet Profit: $2.8 #10 Ranked $1.82 Bet Profit: $0.51 #10 Ranked $1.82 Value Bet Profit: $0.51

Bookies FavouriteCrowd Weighted PickValue Pick
Fighter Wikipedia Page Fighter Record on Sherdog UFC Fighter Profile Julianna Pena vs Milana Dudieva Fighter Wikipedia Page Fighter Record on Sherdog UFC Fighter Profile
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72%
   
30%
125 (80)%
 
31 (20)%
81%
 
19%
83%
 
17%
WON
Pick Rating Fair #6
LOST
@1.39 Suggested Bet: 1.5 units on Julianna Pena: Returned 0.59 Units   @3.33
$10 Bet Profit: $3.9 #6 Ranked $9.09 Bet Profit: $3.55 #6 Ranked $9.09 Value Bet Profit: $3.55

Bookies FavouriteCrowd Weighted PickValue Pick
Fighter Wikipedia Page Fighter Record on Sherdog UFC Fighter Profile Clay Guida vs Robbie Peralta Fighter Wikipedia Page Fighter Record on Sherdog UFC Fighter Profile
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70%
   
32%
125 (77)%
 
38 (23)%
79%
 
21%
78%
 
22%
WON
Pick Rating Fair #7
LOST
@1.43 Suggested Bet: 1 units on Clay Guida: Returned 0.43 Units   @3.13
$10 Bet Profit: $4.3 #7 Ranked $7.27 Bet Profit: $3.13 #7 Ranked $7.27 Value Bet Profit: $3.13

Bookies FavouriteCrowd Weighted PickValue Pick
Fighter Wikipedia Page Fighter Record on Sherdog UFC Fighter Profile Dustin Poirier vs Carlos Diego Ferreira Fighter Wikipedia Page Fighter Record on Sherdog UFC Fighter Profile
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64%
   
38%
130 (77)%
 
39 (23)%
78%
 
22%
75%
 
25%
WON
Pick Rating Fair #5
LOST
@1.56 Suggested Bet: 1.5 units on Dustin Poirier: Returned 0.84 Units   @2.63
$10 Bet Profit: $5.6 #5 Ranked $10.91 Bet Profit: $6.11 #5 Ranked $10.91 Value Bet Profit: $6.11

Fighter Wikipedia Page Fighter Record on Sherdog UFC Fighter Profile Lauren Murphy vs Liz Carmouche Fighter Wikipedia Page Fighter Record on Sherdog UFC Fighter Profile
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51%
   
52%
29 (21)%
 
112 (79)%
21%
 
79%
23%
 
77%
Bookies FavouriteCrowd Weighted PickValue Pick
LOST
#3 Good Pick Rating
WON
@1.96 Suggested Bet: 4.75 units on Liz Carmouche: Returned 4.37 Units   @1.92
$10 Bet Profit: $9.2 #3 Ranked $14.55 Bet Profit: $13.39 #3 Ranked $14.55 Value Bet Profit: $13.39

Crowd Weighted PickValue Pick
Fighter Wikipedia Page Fighter Record on Sherdog UFC Fighter Profile Gray Maynard vs Alexander Yakovlev Fighter Wikipedia Page Fighter Record on Sherdog UFC Fighter Profile
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47%
   
55%
111 (71)%
 
45 (29)%
72%
 
28%
73%
 
27%
Bookies Favourite
LOST
Pick Rating Good+ #2
WON
@2.13 Suggested Bet: 5.5 units on Gray Maynard: Returned -5.50 Units   @1.82
$10 Bet Profit: $-10 #2 Ranked $16.36 Bet Profit: $-16.36 #2 Ranked $16.36 Value Bet Profit: $-16.36

Fighter Wikipedia Page Fighter Record on Sherdog UFC Fighter Profile Timothy Johnson vs Shamil Abdurahimov Fighter Wikipedia Page Fighter Record on Sherdog UFC Fighter Profile
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30%
   
71%
26 (24)%
 
84 (76)%
24%
 
76%
24%
 
76%
Bookies FavouriteCrowd Weighted PickValue Pick
WON
#8 Low Pick Rating
LOST
@3.33 Suggested Bet: 0.75 units on Shamil Abdurahimov: Returned -0.75 Units   @1.41
$10 Bet Profit: $-10 #8 Ranked $5.45 Bet Profit: $-5.45 #8 Ranked $5.45 Value Bet Profit: $-5.45

Bookies FavouriteCrowd Weighted PickValue Pick
Fighter Record on Sherdog UFC Fighter Profile Justin Jones vs Ron Stallings Fighter Wikipedia Page Fighter Record on Sherdog UFC Fighter Profile
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56%
   
46%
51 (53)%
 
46 (47)%
56%
 
44%
70%
 
30%
LOST
Pick Rating Moderate #4
WON
@1.79 Suggested Bet: 2.5 units on Justin Jones: Returned -2.50 Units   @2.17
$10 Bet Profit: $-10 #4 Ranked $12.73 Bet Profit: $-12.73 #4 Ranked $12.73 Value Bet Profit: $-12.73


Chart

 

Unit Betting

$ bet per unit:

  % Chance Units
Bet
Potential
Win
Units
Profit
Cash
Bet
Cash
Profit
ROI
Bet on Al Iaquinta vs Jorge Masvidal (@2.17) 72%   5.5   6.44   6.44   $0.00   $0.00 117%
Bet on Gray Maynard vs Alexander Yakovlev (@2.13) 73%   5.5   6.21   -5.50   $0.00   $0.00
Bet on Liz Carmouche vs Lauren Murphy (@1.92) 77%   4.75   4.37   4.37   $0.00   $0.00 92%
Bet on Justin Jones vs Ron Stallings (@1.79) 70%   2.5   1.98   -2.50   $0.00   $0.00
Bet on Dustin Poirier vs Carlos Diego Ferreira (@1.56) 75%   1.5   0.84   0.84   $0.00   $0.00 56%
Bet on Julianna Pena vs Milana Dudieva (@1.39) 83%   1.5   0.59   0.59   $0.00   $0.00 39%
Bet on Clay Guida vs Robbie Peralta (@1.43) 78%   1   0.43   0.43   $0.00   $0.00 43%
Bet on Shamil Abdurahimov vs Timothy Johnson (@1.41) 76%   0.75   0.31   -0.75   $0.00   $0.00
Bet on Chad Mendes vs Ricardo Lamas (@1.25) 83%   0.25   0.06   0.06   $0.00   $0.00 25%
Bet on Michael Chiesa vs Mitch Clarke (@1.28) 81%   0.25   0.07   0.07   $0.00   $0.00 28%
Average Odds: @1.57   23.5 21.29 4.04   $0.00 $0.00 17.20%

Bet Every Fight: Bet Calculator

Total Bet Amount:

 

Weighted Betting

Based on a total bet of $100.00 over 10 fights
  Pick Opponent Bet Potential
Profit (ROI)
Risk Actual
Result (ROI)
#1 Al Iaquinta Jorge Masvidal $18.18 $21.27
 
$21.27
#2 Gray Maynard Alexander Yakovlev $16.36 $18.49
 
-$16.36
#3 Liz Carmouche Lauren Murphy $14.55 $13.39
 
$13.39
#4 Justin Jones Ron Stallings $12.73 $10.06
 
-$12.73
#5 Dustin Poirier Carlos Diego Ferreira $10.91 $6.11
 
$6.11
#6 Julianna Pena Milana Dudieva $9.09 $3.55
 
$3.55
#7 Clay Guida Robbie Peralta $7.27 $3.13
 
$3.13
#8 Shamil Abdurahimov Timothy Johnson $5.45 $2.23
 
-$5.45
#9 Chad Mendes Ricardo Lamas $3.64 $0.91
 
$0.91
#10 Michael Chiesa Mitch Clarke $1.82 $0.51
 
$0.51
      $100.00 $79.64 (80%)   $14.32 (14%)

Value Betting

  Pick Opponent Bet Potential
Profit (ROI)
Risk Actual
Result (ROI)
#1 Al Iaquinta Jorge Masvidal $18.18 $21.27
 
$21.27
#2 Gray Maynard Alexander Yakovlev $16.36 $18.49
 
-$16.36
#3 Liz Carmouche Lauren Murphy $14.55 $13.39
 
$13.39
#4 Justin Jones Ron Stallings $12.73 $10.06
 
-$12.73
#5 Dustin Poirier Carlos Diego Ferreira $10.91 $6.11
 
$6.11
#6 Julianna Pena Milana Dudieva $9.09 $3.55
 
$3.55
#7 Clay Guida Robbie Peralta $7.27 $3.13
 
$3.13
#8 Shamil Abdurahimov Timothy Johnson $5.45 $2.23
 
-$5.45
#9 Chad Mendes Ricardo Lamas $3.64 $0.91
 
$0.91
#10 Michael Chiesa Mitch Clarke $1.82 $0.51
 
$0.51
      $100.00 $79.64 (80%)   $14.32 (14%)
 
 
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