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Event Predictions

UFC Fight Night - Machida vs. Dollaway

Sao Paulo, Brazil
2014-12-20 19:00:00

Favourite wins: 9
Underdog wins: 3
$10 on all favourites nets: $8.90
$10 on all underdogs nets: $-24.00

Unit Betting
Units Bet: 8.75. Profit: 5.09
Total Unit Profit: 5.09

$10 Average Betting System
$10 on all our picks (raw): $19.10 (9 right, 3 wrong)
$10 on all our picks (weighted): $104.90 (12 right, 0 wrong)
Weighted betting profit: $148.18 (12 right, 0 wrong)
Value betting profit: $102.87 (10 right, 2 wrong)

Average Bet Rating: Moderate
Average Value Bet Rating: Good

Key  
Bookies Odds Bookmaker Odds
Raw Picks Raw Picks
Raw Picks Crowd Prediction
Raw Picks Weighted Crowd Prediction
Raw Picks Your Prediction
Raw Picks Your Confidence
Raw Picks Bookmaker Favourite
Raw Picks Crowd Weighted Pick
Raw Picks Your Pick
Raw Picks Value Pick

Bookies FavouriteCrowd Weighted PickValue Pick
Fighter Wikipedia Page Fighter Record on Sherdog UFC Fighter Profile Lyoto Machida vs C.B. Dollaway Fighter Wikipedia Page Fighter Record on Sherdog UFC Fighter Profile
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85%
   
17%
120 (94)%
 
7 (6)%
95%
 
5%
87%
 
13%
WON
Pick Rating Low #9
LOST
@1.18 Suggested Bet: 0.25 units on Lyoto Machida: Returned 0.04 Units   @5.88
$10 Bet Profit: $1.8 #9 Ranked $6.15 Bet Profit: $1.11 #11 Ranked $3.08 Value Bet Profit: $0.55

Bookies FavouriteCrowd Weighted PickValue Pick
Fighter Wikipedia Page Fighter Record on Sherdog UFC Fighter Profile Renan Barao vs Mitch Gagnon Fighter Wikipedia Page Fighter Record on Sherdog UFC Fighter Profile
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88%
   
14%
109 (92)%
 
10 (8)%
92%
 
8%
91%
 
9%
WON
Pick Rating Low #8
LOST
@1.14 Suggested Bet: 0.25 units on Renan Barao: Returned 0.04 Units   @7.14
$10 Bet Profit: $1.4 #8 Ranked $7.69 Bet Profit: $1.08 #10 Ranked $4.62 Value Bet Profit: $0.65

Bookies FavouriteCrowd Weighted PickValue Pick
Fighter Wikipedia Page Fighter Record on Sherdog UFC Fighter Profile Patrick Cummins vs Antonio Carlos Jr. Fighter Wikipedia Page Fighter Record on Sherdog UFC Fighter Profile
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61%
   
39%
51 (64)%
 
29 (36)%
68%
 
32%
88%
 
12%
WON
Pick Rating Good #3
LOST
@1.64 Suggested Bet: 4.25 units on Patrick Cummins: Returned 2.72 Units   @2.56
$10 Bet Profit: $6.4 #3 Ranked $15.38 Bet Profit: $9.84 #4 Ranked $13.85 Value Bet Profit: $8.86

Bookies FavouriteCrowd Weighted PickValue Pick
Fighter Wikipedia Page Fighter Record on Sherdog UFC Fighter Profile Rashid Magomedov vs Elias Silverio Fighter Wikipedia Page Fighter Record on Sherdog UFC Fighter Profile
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61%
   
41%
52 (70)%
 
22 (30)%
69%
 
31%
81%
 
19%
WON
Pick Rating Moderate #4
LOST
@1.64 Suggested Bet: 3.25 units on Rashid Magomedov: Returned 2.08 Units   @2.44
$10 Bet Profit: $6.4 #4 Ranked $13.85 Bet Profit: $8.86 #6 Ranked $10.77 Value Bet Profit: $6.89

Bookies FavouriteCrowd Weighted PickValue Pick
Fighter Wikipedia Page Fighter Record on Sherdog UFC Fighter Profile Erick Silva vs Mike Rhodes Fighter Wikipedia Page Fighter Record on Sherdog UFC Fighter Profile
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78%
   
23%
92 (93)%
 
7 (7)%
93%
 
7%
86%
 
14%
WON
Pick Rating Low #7
LOST
@1.28 Suggested Bet: 0.75 units on Erick Silva: Returned 0.21 Units   @4.35
$10 Bet Profit: $2.8 #7 Ranked $9.23 Bet Profit: $2.58 #9 Ranked $6.15 Value Bet Profit: $1.72

Fighter Record on Sherdog UFC Fighter Profile Antonio Dos Santos Jr vs Daniel Sarafian Fighter Wikipedia Page Fighter Record on Sherdog UFC Fighter Profile
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42%
   
60%
13 (38)%
 
21 (62)%
38%
 
62%
33%
 
67%
Bookies FavouriteCrowd Weighted PickValue Pick
LOST
#6 Fair Pick Rating
WON
@2.38 No Unit Bet Suggested (Insufficient Predictions)   @1.67
$10 Bet Profit: $6.7 #6 Ranked $10.77 Bet Profit: $7.22 #8 Ranked $7.69 Value Bet Profit: $5.15

Bookies FavouriteCrowd Weighted Pick
Fighter Wikipedia Page Fighter Record on Sherdog UFC Fighter Profile Marcos Rogerio de Lima vs Igor Pokrajac Fighter Wikipedia Page Fighter Record on Sherdog UFC Fighter Profile
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75%
   
25%
38 (63)%
 
22 (37)%
68%
 
32%
51%
 
49%
Value Pick
WON
Pick Rating Very Poor #12 Extremely Good Anti-Pick
LOST
@1.33 No Unit Bet Suggested (Insufficient Predictions)   @4.00
$10 Bet Profit: $3.3 #12 Ranked $1.54 Bet Profit: $0.51 #2 Ranked $16.92 Value Bet Profit: $-16.92

Bookies Favourite
Fighter Wikipedia Page Fighter Record on Sherdog UFC Fighter Profile Tom Niinimaki vs Renato Carneiro Fighter Record on Sherdog UFC Fighter Profile
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52%
   
49%
17 (59)%
 
12 (41)%
67%
 
33%
39%
 
61%
Crowd Weighted PickValue Pick
LOST
#5 Moderate Pick Rating
WON
@1.92 No Unit Bet Suggested (Insufficient Predictions)   @2.04
$10 Bet Profit: $10.4 #5 Ranked $12.31 Bet Profit: $12.8 #7 Ranked $9.23 Value Bet Profit: $9.6

Bookies FavouriteCrowd Weighted PickValue Pick
Fighter Wikipedia Page Fighter Record on Sherdog UFC Fighter Profile Hacran Dias vs Darren Elkins Fighter Wikipedia Page Fighter Record on Sherdog UFC Fighter Profile
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65%
   
36%
23 (38)%
 
37 (62)%
35%
 
65%
66%
 
34%
WON
Pick Rating Low #10
LOST
@1.54 No Unit Bet Suggested (Insufficient Predictions)   @2.78
$10 Bet Profit: $5.4 #10 Ranked $4.62 Bet Profit: $2.49 #12 Ranked $1.54 Value Bet Profit: $0.83

Crowd Weighted PickValue Pick
Fighter Wikipedia Page Fighter Record on Sherdog UFC Fighter Profile Leandro Issa vs Yuta Sasaki Fighter Wikipedia Page Fighter Record on Sherdog UFC Fighter Profile
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20%
   
82%
26 (49)%
 
27 (51)%
53%
 
47%
63%
 
37%
Bookies Favourite
WON
Pick Rating Fantastic #1
LOST
@5.00 No Unit Bet Suggested (Insufficient Predictions)   @1.22
$10 Bet Profit: $40 #1 Ranked $18.46 Bet Profit: $73.84 #1 Ranked $18.46 Value Bet Profit: $73.84

Bookies FavouriteCrowd Weighted Pick
Fighter Wikipedia Page Fighter Record on Sherdog UFC Fighter Profile Tim Means vs Marcio Alexandre Jr. Fighter Record on Sherdog UFC Fighter Profile
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68%
   
33%
40 (71)%
 
16 (29)%
76%
 
24%
53%
 
47%
Value Pick
WON
Pick Rating Very Poor #11 Good Anti-Pick
LOST
@1.47 No Unit Bet Suggested (Insufficient Predictions)   @3.03
$10 Bet Profit: $4.7 #11 Ranked $3.08 Bet Profit: $1.45 #5 Ranked $12.31 Value Bet Profit: $-12.31

Bookies Favourite
Fighter Wikipedia Page Fighter Record on Sherdog UFC Fighter Profile Jake Collier vs Vitor Miranda Fighter Wikipedia Page Fighter Record on Sherdog UFC Fighter Profile
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63%
   
39%
9 (29)%
 
22 (71)%
33%
 
67%
29%
 
71%
Crowd Weighted PickValue Pick
LOST
#2 Extremely Good Pick Rating
WON
@1.59 No Unit Bet Suggested (Insufficient Predictions)   @2.56
$10 Bet Profit: $15.6 #2 Ranked $16.92 Bet Profit: $26.4 #3 Ranked $15.38 Value Bet Profit: $23.99


Chart

 

Unit Betting

$ bet per unit:

  % Chance Units
Bet
Potential
Win
Units
Profit
Cash
Bet
Cash
Profit
ROI
Bet on Patrick Cummins vs Antonio Carlos Jr. (@1.64) 88%   4.25   2.72   2.72   $0.00   $0.00 64%
Bet on Rashid Magomedov vs Elias Silverio (@1.64) 81%   3.25   2.08   2.08   $0.00   $0.00 64%
Bet on Erick Silva vs Mike Rhodes (@1.28) 86%   0.75   0.21   0.21   $0.00   $0.00 28%
Bet on Lyoto Machida vs C.B. Dollaway (@1.18) 87%   0.25   0.04   0.04   $0.00   $0.00 18%
Bet on Renan Barao vs Mitch Gagnon (@1.14) 91%   0.25   0.03   0.04   $0.00   $0.00 14%
Average Odds: @1.34   8.75 5.09 5.09   $0.00 $0.00 58.17%

Bet Every Fight: Bet Calculator

Total Bet Amount:

 

Weighted Betting

Based on a total bet of $120.00 over 12 fights
  Pick Opponent Bet Potential
Profit (ROI)
Risk Actual
Result (ROI)
#1 Leandro Issa Yuta Sasaki $18.46 $73.84
 
$73.84
#2 Vitor Miranda Jake Collier $16.92 $26.40
 
$26.40
#3 Patrick Cummins Antonio Carlos Jr. $15.38 $9.84
 
$9.84
#4 Rashid Magomedov Elias Silverio $13.85 $8.86
 
$8.86
#5 Renato Carneiro Tom Niinimaki $12.31 $12.80
 
$12.80
#6 Daniel Sarafian Antonio Dos Santos Jr $10.77 $7.22
 
$7.22
#7 Erick Silva Mike Rhodes $9.23 $2.58
 
$2.58
#8 Renan Barao Mitch Gagnon $7.69 $1.08
 
$1.08
#9 Lyoto Machida C.B. Dollaway $6.15 $1.11
 
$1.11
#10 Hacran Dias Darren Elkins $4.62 $2.49
 
$2.49
#11 Tim Means Marcio Alexandre Jr. $3.08 $1.45
 
$1.45
#12 Marcos Rogerio de Lima Igor Pokrajac $1.54 $0.51
 
$0.51
      $120.00 $148.18 (123%)   $148.18 (123%)

Value Betting

  Pick Opponent Bet Potential
Profit (ROI)
Risk Actual
Result (ROI)
#1 Leandro Issa Yuta Sasaki $18.46 $73.84
 
$73.84
#2 Igor Pokrajac Marcos Rogerio de Lima $16.92 $50.76
 
-$16.92
#3 Vitor Miranda Jake Collier $15.38 $23.99
 
$23.99
#4 Patrick Cummins Antonio Carlos Jr. $13.85 $8.86
 
$8.86
#5 Marcio Alexandre Jr. Tim Means $12.31 $24.99
 
-$12.31
#6 Rashid Magomedov Elias Silverio $10.77 $6.89
 
$6.89
#7 Renato Carneiro Tom Niinimaki $9.23 $9.60
 
$9.60
#8 Daniel Sarafian Antonio Dos Santos Jr $7.69 $5.15
 
$5.15
#9 Erick Silva Mike Rhodes $6.15 $1.72
 
$1.72
#10 Renan Barao Mitch Gagnon $4.62 $0.65
 
$0.65
#11 Lyoto Machida C.B. Dollaway $3.08 $0.55
 
$0.55
#12 Hacran Dias Darren Elkins $1.54 $0.83
 
$0.83
      $120.00 $207.85 (173%)   $102.87 (86%)
 
 
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