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MMA Handicapper Profile: pablo_has

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pablo_has (pablo_has)


MMA MHandicapper - pablo_has

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MMA Betting Stats Summary

Overall Stats

Straight Fight Picks

Props

Parlays

Right 406 (46%) Right 244 (51%) Right 160 (41%) Right 2 (40%)
Wrong 468 (54%) Wrong 239 (49%) Wrong 226 (59%) Wrong 3 (60%)
Avg Odds 2.17 Avg Odds 1.96 Avg Odds 2.53 Avg Odds 1.62
Units Bet 2,075.5 Units Bet 1,414.2 Units Bet 652.7 Units Bet 8.6
Avg Bet 2.37 Avg Bet 2.93 Avg Bet 1.69 Avg Bet 1.71
Units Profit -75.46 Units Profit -63.77 Units Profit -10.05 Units Profit -1.64
ROI % -4% ROI % -5% ROI % -2% ROI % -19%
View Handicapper's Stats

Straight Pick Stats

  Picks Correct % Correct Units Bet Units Profit Profit per Pick ROI
Big Favorites 116 (24%) 84 72 % 340.97 6.38 0.05 2%
Slight Favorites 138 (28%) 78 57 % 473.85 -16.62 -0.12 -4%
Slight Underdogs 136 (28%) 63 46 % 371.28 25.69 0.19 7%
Big Underdogs 97 (20%) 21 22 % 228.14 -79.23 -0.82 -35%
 

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pablo_has 's MMA Handicapper Bio

hi guys,

I'm pablo_has, and I follow mma since Brock Lesnar fought Frank Mir. I had a rough start in my predictions cause I lacked the programming skills to deal with data modelling in mma, but I took some programming classes and with time, effort and a lot of trial and error I've made a lot of progress. I also visited a couple of sports analytics seminars to see how bookmakers and academics are working.
I do bayesian and survival analysis in my data, and I manage to get a few working models.

* I usually post predictions after the weigh ins, when the card is pretty much fixed.
 

Picks on Upcoming MMA Fights by pablo_has

This handicapper has made no picks on upcoming fights.

pablo_has 's MMA Handicapper's Pick History


Your $ bet per unit is set at $10. You can edit that value in your settings.

UFC 276, Las Vegas, 2nd Jul '22

Pick Opponent   Odds Unit
Bet
Unit
Profit
Cash
Profit
ROI  
Sean Strickland Alex Pereira L 1.91 1.57 -1.57 $-15.70 -100% Bet Info
Straight Pick Event Totals:   1.91 1.57 -1.57 $-15.70 -100%  
Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets):   1.57 -1.57 $-15.70 -100%  

PFL 2022 #6, Atlanta, 1st Jul '22

Pick Opponent   Odds Unit
Bet
Unit
Profit
Cash
Profit
ROI  
Zamzagul Fayzallanova Martina Jindrova L 3.85 0.75 -0.75 $-7.50 -100% Bet Info
Straight Pick Event Totals:   3.85 0.75 -0.75 $-7.50 -100%  
  Fight Pick   Odds
Pr Marina Mokhnatkina vs Abigail Montes Fight goes to decision W 1.41
  2.1 0.86 $8.61 41% Bet Info
  Fight Pick   Odds
Pr Rory MacDonald vs Sadibou Sy Fight goes to decision W 1.74
  1.7 1.26 $12.58 74% Bet Info
Prop & Parlay Event Totals:   3.80 2.12 $21.19 56%  
Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets):   4.55 1.37 $13.69 30%  

UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Emmett, Austin, 18th Jun '22

  Fight Pick   Odds
Pr Calvin Kattar vs Josh Emmett Fight starts round 4 W 1.59
  1.85 1.09 $10.92 59% Bet Info
  Fight Pick   Odds
Pr Joaquin Buckley vs Albert Duraev Fight doesn't go to decision W 1.53
  1.95 1.03 $10.34 53% Bet Info
  Fight Pick   Odds
Pr Adrian Yanez vs Tony Kelley Fight goes to decision L 2.16
  1.4 -1.40 $-14.00 -100% Bet Info
  Fight Pick   Odds
Pr Jeremiah Wells vs Court McGee Fight goes to decision L 1.61
  1.86 -1.86 $-18.60 -100% Bet Info
Prop & Parlay Event Totals:   7.06 -1.13 $-11.35 -16%  
Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets):   7.06 -1.13 $-11.35 -16%  

PFL 2022 #4, Atlanta, 17th Jun '22

  Fight Pick   Odds
Pr Omari Akhmedov vs Teodoras Aukstuolis Fight doesn't go to decision W 1.63
  2 1.26 $12.60 63% Bet Info
Prop & Parlay Event Totals:   2.00 1.26 $12.60 63%  
Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets):   2.00 1.26 $12.60 63%  

UFC 275, Kallang, 11th Jun '22

Pick Opponent   Odds Unit
Bet
Unit
Profit
Cash
Profit
ROI  
Taila Santos Valentina Shevchenko L 6.50 0.6 -0.60 $-6.00 -100% View Pick Writeup Bet Info
Weili Zhang Joanna Jedrzejczyk W 1.64 1.8 1.15 $11.52 64% Bet Info
Hayisaer Maheshate Steve Garcia W 2.68 1.15 1.93 $19.32 168% Bet Info
Na Liang Silvana Gomez Juarez L 2.05 1.57 -1.57 $-15.70 -100% Bet Info
Straight Pick Event Totals:   2.46 5.12 0.91 $9.14 18%  
Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets):   5.12 0.91 $9.14 18%  

Cage Warriors 139, San Diego, 10th Jun '22

Pick Opponent   Odds Unit
Bet
Unit
Profit
Cash
Profit
ROI  
Alex Trinidad Jordan Bailey L 1.65 3.2 -3.20 $-32.00 -100% Bet Info
Straight Pick Event Totals:   1.65 3.20 -3.20 $-32.00 -100%  
Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets):   3.20 -3.20 $-32.00 -100%  

UFC 274, Phoenix, 7th May '22

Pick Opponent   Odds Unit
Bet
Unit
Profit
Cash
Profit
ROI  
Rose Namajunas Carla Esparza L 1.53 1 -1.00 $-10.00 -100% Bet Info
Brandon Royval Matt Schnell W 1.50 1 0.50 $5.00 50% Bet Info Bet Info
Marcos Rogerio de Lima Blagoy Ivanov L 2.32 1 -1.00 $-10.00 -100% Bet Info
Straight Pick Event Totals:   1.71 3.00 -1.50 $-15.00 -50%  
Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets):   3.00 -1.50 $-15.00 -50%  

UFC 271, Houston, 12th Feb '22

Pick Opponent   Odds Unit
Bet
Unit
Profit
Cash
Profit
ROI  
Tai Tuivasa Derrick Lewis W 2.65 1.1 1.81 $18.15 165% Bet Info
Nasrat Haqparast Bobby Green L 2.26 1.3 -1.30 $-13.00 -100% Bet Info
Jared Vanderaa Andrei Arlovski L 2.35 1.25 -1.25 $-12.50 -100% Bet Info
Straight Pick Event Totals:   2.41 3.65 -0.74 $-7.35 -20%  
Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets):   3.65 -0.74 $-7.35 -20%  

UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Strickland, Las Vegas, 5th Feb '22

Pick Opponent   Odds Unit
Bet
Unit
Profit
Cash
Profit
ROI  
Jack Hermansson Sean Strickland L 2.95 1.05 -1.05 $-10.50 -100% Bet Info
Nick Maximov Punahele Soriano W 2.68 1.1 1.85 $18.48 168% Bet Info
Sam Alvey Brendan Allen L 4.45 0.65 -0.65 $-6.50 -100% Bet Info
Steven Peterson Julian Erosa L 3.65 0.8 -0.80 $-8.00 -100% Bet Info
Straight Pick Event Totals:   3.30 3.60 -0.65 $-6.52 -18%  
Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets):   3.60 -0.65 $-6.52 -18%  

UFC 270, Anaheim, 22nd Jan '22

Pick Opponent   Odds Unit
Bet
Unit
Profit
Cash
Profit
ROI  
Francis Ngannou Ciryl Gane W 2.30 1.3 1.69 $16.90 130% Bet Info
Deiveson Figueiredo Brandon Moreno W 2.70 1.1 1.87 $18.70 170% Bet Info
Straight Pick Event Totals:   2.48 2.40 3.56 $35.60 148%  
Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets):   2.40 3.56 $35.60 148%  

Invicta 45, Kansas City, 12th Jan '22

Pick Opponent   Odds Unit
Bet
Unit
Profit
Cash
Profit
ROI  
Alesha Zappitella Jessica Delboni L 2.90 1.42 -1.42 $-14.20 -100% Bet Info
Monica Franco Hailey Cowan L 3.40 1.05 -1.05 $-10.50 -100% Bet Info
Straight Pick Event Totals:   3.13 2.47 -2.47 $-24.70 -100%  
Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets):   2.47 -2.47 $-24.70 -100%  

UFC FN, Las Vegas, 18th Dec '21

Pick Opponent   Odds Unit
Bet
Unit
Profit
Cash
Profit
ROI  
Derrick Lewis Chris Daukaus W 2.40 1.1 1.54 $15.40 140% Bet Info
Belal Muhammad Stephen Thompson W 3.25 0.7 1.58 $15.75 225% Bet Info Bet Info
Amanda Lemos Angela Hill W 1.36 1.6 0.58 $5.76 36% Bet Info
Dustin Stoltzfus Gerald Meerschaert L 3.05 1.8 -1.80 $-18.00 -100% Bet Info
Straight Pick Event Totals:   2.24 5.20 1.89 $18.91 36%  
Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets):   5.20 1.89 $18.91 36%  

Brave CF 56, Belgrade, 18th Dec '21

Pick Opponent   Odds Unit
Bet
Unit
Profit
Cash
Profit
ROI  
Rolando Dy Slobodan Maksimovic L 1.87 1.6 -1.60 $-16.00 -100% Bet Info
Jakob Nedoh Zvonimir Kralj W 2.30 0.5 0.65 $6.50 130% Bet Info
Straight Pick Event Totals:   2.06 2.10 -0.95 $-9.50 -45%  
Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets):   2.10 -0.95 $-9.50 -45%  

KSW 65, Gliwice, 18th Dec '21

Pick Opponent   Odds Unit
Bet
Unit
Profit
Cash
Profit
ROI  
Roberto Soldic Mamed Khalidov W 1.44 1.1 0.48 $4.84 44% Bet Info
Mateusz Legierski Roman Szymanski L 2.75 1.5 -1.50 $-15.00 -100% Bet Info
Marek Samociuk Michal Kita L 4.50 1.85 -1.85 $-18.50 -100% Bet Info
Straight Pick Event Totals:   2.34 4.45 -2.87 $-28.66 -64%  
Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets):   4.45 -2.87 $-28.66 -64%  

UFC 269, Las Vegas, 11th Dec '21

Pick Opponent   Odds Unit
Bet
Unit
Profit
Cash
Profit
ROI  
Kai Kara-France Cody Garbrandt W 2.55 0.7 1.08 $10.85 155% Bet Info
Raulian Paiva Sean O'Malley L 3.70 0.85 -0.85 $-8.50 -100% Bet Info
Josh Emmett Dan Ige W 1.69 0.4 0.28 $2.76 69% Bet Info
Andre Muniz Eryk Anders W 1.66 1.3 0.86 $8.58 66% Bet Info
Ryan Hall Darrick Minner W 1.53 1.3 0.69 $6.89 53% Bet Info
Priscila Cachoeira Gillian Robertson L 4.30 0.4 -0.40 $-4.00 -100% Bet Info
Straight Pick Event Totals:   2.19 4.95 1.66 $16.58 33%  
  Fight Pick   Odds
Pr Priscila Cachoeira vs Gillian Robertson Fight goes to decision L 2.55
  1.6 -1.60 $-16.00 -100% Bet Info
  Fight Pick   Odds
Pr Amanda Nunes vs Julianna Pena Fight goes to decision L 4.50
  0.8 -0.80 $-8.00 -100% Bet Info
  Fight Pick   Odds
Pr Andre Muniz vs Eryk Anders Fight goes to decision L 2.92
  1.4 -1.40 $-14.00 -100% Bet Info
  Fight Pick   Odds
Pr Miranda Maverick vs Erin Blanchfield Fight doesn't go to decision L 3.20
  1.2 -1.20 $-12.00 -100% Bet Info
  Fight Pick   Odds
Pr Randy Costa vs Tony Kelley Over 0.5 rounds W 3.00
  0.85 1.70 $17.00 200% Bet Info
  Fight Pick   Odds
Pr Bruno Silva vs Jordan Wright Fight goes to decision L 5.00
  0.5 -0.50 $-5.00 -100% Bet Info
  Fight Pick   Odds
Pr Pedro Munhoz vs Dominick Cruz Fight doesn't go to decision L 2.77
  0.8 -0.80 $-8.00 -100% Bet Info
  Fight Pick   Odds
Pr Tai Tuivasa vs Augusto Sakai Fight goes to decision L 2.80
  0.5 -0.50 $-5.00 -100% Bet Info
  Fight Pick   Odds
Pr Geoff Neal vs Santiago Ponzinibbio Fight goes to decision W 2.50
  0.5 0.75 $7.50 150% Bet Info
  Fight Pick   Odds
Pr Cody Garbrandt vs Kai Kara-France Fight goes to decision L 2.35
  0.5 -0.50 $-5.00 -100% Bet Info
Prop & Parlay Event Totals:   8.65 -4.85 $-48.50 -56%  
Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets):   13.60 -3.19 $-31.92 -23%  

Cage Warriors 131, London, 10th Dec '21

Pick Opponent   Odds Unit
Bet
Unit
Profit
Cash
Profit
ROI  
Djati Melan Matthew Bonner W 2.85 1.27 2.35 $23.49 185% View Pick Writeup Bet Info
Straight Pick Event Totals:   2.85 1.27 2.35 $23.49 185%  
Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets):   1.27 2.35 $23.49 185%  

UFC FN, Las Vegas, 4th Dec '21

Pick Opponent   Odds Unit
Bet
Unit
Profit
Cash
Profit
ROI  
Rob Font Jose Aldo L 1.87 0.7 -0.70 $-7.00 -100% Bet Info Bet Info
Brad Riddell Rafael Fiziev L 2.10 0.85 -0.85 $-8.50 -100% Bet Info
Jim Crute Jamahal Hill L 1.61 0.9 -0.90 $-9.00 -100% Bet Info
Darian Weeks Bryan Barberena L 2.60 0.7 -0.70 $-7.00 -100% Bet Info Bet Info
Claudio Puelles Chris Gruetzemacher W 2.20 1.44 1.73 $17.28 120% Bet Info Bet Info
Straight Pick Event Totals:   2.02 4.59 -1.42 $-14.22 -31%  
  Fight Pick   Odds
Pr Brad Riddell vs Rafael Fiziev Fight doesn't go the distance W 2.70
  1.8 3.06 $30.60 170% View Pick Writeup Bet Info
  Fight Pick   Odds
Pr Claudio Puelles vs Chris Gruetzemacher Fight doesn't go to decision W 2.55
  1.2 1.86 $18.60 155% Bet Info
  Fight Pick   Odds
Pr Rob Font vs Jose Aldo Fight doesn't go to decision L 2.15
  1 -1.00 $-10.00 -100% Bet Info
  Fight Pick   Odds
Pr Clay Guida vs Leonardo Santos Fight doesn't go to decision W 2.30
  0.8 1.04 $10.40 130% Bet Info
  Fight Pick   Odds
Pr Louis Smolka vs Vincent Morales Fight doesn't go to decision W 2.20
  0.65 0.78 $7.80 120% Bet Info
Prop & Parlay Event Totals:   5.45 5.74 $57.40 105%  
Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets):   10.04 4.32 $43.18 43%  

Bellator 272, Uncasville, 3rd Dec '21

Pick Opponent   Odds Unit
Bet
Unit
Profit
Cash
Profit
ROI  
Jeremy Kennedy Emmanuel Sanchez W 2.85 0.75 1.39 $13.87 185% Bet Info Bet Info
Levan Chokheli Vinicius de Jesus W 2.10 1.9 2.09 $20.90 110% Bet Info
Killys Mota Mike Hamel L 2.05 1 -1.00 $-10.00 -100% Bet Info
Kyle Crutchmer Oliver Enkamp W 1.75 0.9 0.67 $6.75 75% Bet Info
Straight Pick Event Totals:   2.12 4.55 3.15 $31.52 69%  
  Fight Pick   Odds
Pr Johnny Eblen vs Collin Huckbody Fight doesn't go to decision W 1.87
  2.5 2.17 $21.75 87% Bet Info
  Fight Pick   Odds
Pr Killys Mota vs Mike Hamel Fight doesn't go to decision L 2.05
  2.5 -2.50 $-25.00 -100% Bet Info
  Fight Pick   Odds
Pr Sergio Pettis vs Kyoji Horiguchi Fight doesn't go to decision W 2.60
  3.25 5.20 $52.00 160% Bet Info
Prop & Parlay Event Totals:   8.25 4.87 $48.75 59%  
Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets):   12.80 8.03 $80.27 63%  

UFC FN, Las Vegas, 20th Nov '21

Pick Opponent   Odds Unit
Bet
Unit
Profit
Cash
Profit
ROI  
Ketlen Vieira Miesha Tate W 2.00 1 1.00 $10.00 100% Bet Info
Joanne Wood Taila Santos L 4.30 0.95 -0.95 $-9.50 -100% Bet Info
Rafa Garcia Natan Levy W 2.30 1 1.30 $13.00 130% Bet Info Bet Info
Straight Pick Event Totals:   2.57 2.95 1.35 $13.50 46%  
  Fight Pick   Odds
Pr Joanne Wood vs Taila Santos Fight goes to decision L 1.38
  2.15 -2.15 $-21.50 -100% Bet Info
  Fight Pick   Odds
Pr Rani Yahya vs Kyung Ho Kang Over 1.5 rounds W 1.38
  2.1 0.79 $7.92 38% Bet Info
Prop & Parlay Event Totals:   4.25 -1.36 $-13.58 -32%  
Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets):   7.20 -0.01 $-0.08 -0%  

CFFC 103, Tunica, 19th Nov '21

Pick Opponent   Odds Unit
Bet
Unit
Profit
Cash
Profit
ROI  
DaMon Blackshear Deandre Anderson W 2.20 1.35 1.62 $16.20 120% Bet Info
Wade Johnson Trevor Ollison L 1.33 2.2 -2.20 $-22.00 -100% Bet Info
Straight Pick Event Totals:   1.66 3.55 -0.58 $-5.80 -16%  
Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets):   3.55 -0.58 $-5.80 -16%  



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