| |
MMA Handicapper Stats: tilt formula |
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|
tilt formula: Event by Event Predictions |
The straight picks, parlays and props sections display Winnings / Bets (ROI%)
Winning Events: 40 (69%)
Losing Events: 18 (31%)
Average Staked Per Event: 16.08 units
Most Staked On One Event: 50.90 units
Best Event: 20.12 units
Worst Event: -12.30 units
Average Event: 1.32 units
Max Win Streak: Events: 5, Units: 40.97
Max Losing Streak: Events: 2, Units: -19.74 |
tilt formula: Year on Year Profit |
| Year |
Bet |
Won |
ROI |
Straight
Won / Bet (ROI%) |
Prop
Won / Bet (ROI%) |
Parlay
Won / Bet (ROI%) |
Events
Won / Lost
(%) |
Profit
Per Event |
| 2025 |
489.48 |
6.5 |
1% |
13.5 / 463.48 (3%) |
-3.0 / 3 (-100%) |
-4.0 / 23 (-17%) |
17 / 9 (65%) |
0.25 |
| 2024 |
418.25 |
65.1 |
16% |
47.0 / 381.25 (12%) |
12.2 / 14.5 (84%) |
5.8 / 22.5 (26%) |
20 / 8 (71%) |
2.32 |
| 2023 |
25 |
4.9 |
20% |
4.9 / 25 (20%) |
|
|
3 / 1 (75%) |
1.24 |
|
tilt formula: Yearly Straight Pick Stats |
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To view these stats, you need to be a VIP
|
tilt formula: Profit / Loss by Organization |
| Organization |
Bet |
Won |
ROI |
Straight Picks |
Props |
Parlays |
|
UFC |
767.88 |
68.4 |
9% |
62.0 / 714.88 (9%) |
9.2 / 17.5 (53%) |
-2.8 / 35.5 (-8%) |
|
Bellator |
7 |
2.5 |
36% |
1.1 / 5 (22%) |
|
1.4 / 2 (71%) |
|
PFL |
78.75 |
-0.1 |
-0% |
-0.1 / 78.75 (-0%) |
|
|
| Other |
79.1 |
5.7 |
7% |
2.5 / 71.1 (3%) |
|
3.2 / 8 (40%) |
|
tilt formula: Straight Pick Stats |
Big favourite means >65% win chance according to bookies. Big underdog is <35% chance.
| |
Picks |
Correct |
% Correct |
Units Bet |
Units Profit |
Profit per Pick |
ROI |
| Big Favorites |
113 (59%) |
93 |
82 % |
669.10 |
31.32 |
0.28 |
5% |
| Slight Favorites |
37 (19%) |
24 |
65 % |
133.78 |
18.93 |
0.51 |
14% |
| Slight Underdogs |
30 (16%) |
15 |
50 % |
44.10 |
15.42 |
0.51 |
35% |
| Big Underdogs |
10 (5%) |
2 |
20 % |
9.75 |
-0.17 |
-0.02 |
-2% |
Betting Stats By Card Position
| |
Picks |
Correct |
% Correct |
Units Bet |
Units Profit |
Profit per Pick |
ROI |
| Main Event |
29 (15%) |
21 |
72 % |
120.10 |
11.47 |
0.40 |
10% |
| Co-Main Event |
15 (8%) |
10 |
67 % |
79.25 |
-4.61 |
-0.31 |
-6% |
| Position 3-5 |
53 (28%) |
39 |
74 % |
251.28 |
31.55 |
0.60 |
13% |
| 6+ (Undercard) |
93 (49%) |
64 |
69 % |
406.10 |
27.08 |
0.29 |
7% |
|
tilt formula: Profit by Weight Class |
| |
Picks |
Correct |
% Correct |
Units Bet |
Units Profit |
Profit per Pick |
ROI |
| Heavyweight |
17 (9%) |
12 |
71 % |
70.00 |
11.71 |
0.69 |
17% |
| Light Heavy |
13 (7%) |
9 |
69 % |
56.28 |
3.46 |
0.27 |
6% |
| Middleweight |
24 (13%) |
16 |
67 % |
118.50 |
-9.46 |
-0.39 |
-8% |
| Welterweight |
20 (11%) |
15 |
75 % |
70.35 |
16.04 |
0.80 |
23% |
| Lightweight |
22 (12%) |
16 |
73 % |
104.00 |
14.09 |
0.64 |
14% |
| Featherweight |
26 (14%) |
19 |
73 % |
128.25 |
32.46 |
1.25 |
25% |
| Bantamweight |
23 (12%) |
15 |
65 % |
123.00 |
-22.36 |
-0.97 |
-18% |
| Flyweight |
20 (11%) |
14 |
70 % |
79.00 |
13.12 |
0.66 |
17% |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Women's Fights |
25 (13%) |
18 |
72 % |
107.35 |
6.44 |
0.26 |
6% |
| Featherweight |
1 (1%) |
|
0 % |
3.00 |
-3.00 |
-3.00 |
-100% |
| Bantamweight |
8 (4%) |
6 |
75 % |
18.50 |
8.64 |
1.08 |
47% |
| Flyweight |
9 (5%) |
7 |
78 % |
55.00 |
-1.59 |
-0.18 |
-3% |
| Strawweight |
7 (4%) |
5 |
71 % |
30.85 |
2.39 |
0.34 |
8% |
|
Props & Parlay Section Stats (Individual sections of this handicapper's parlays) |
Straight picks within parlays
| |
Picks |
Correct |
% Correct |
| Big Favorites |
28 (100%) |
26 |
93 % |
| Slight Favorites |
0 (0%) |
0 |
nan % |
| Slight Underdogs |
0 (0%) |
0 |
nan % |
| Big Underdogs |
0 (0%) |
0 |
nan % |
|
28 |
26 |
93 % |
Props bets and props within parlays
| |
Picks |
Correct |
% Correct |
| >65% chance |
6 (75%) |
4 |
67 % |
| 50-65% |
0 (0%) |
0 |
nan % |
| 35-50% |
0 (0%) |
0 |
nan % |
| <35% chance |
2 (25%) |
1 |
50 % |
|
8 |
5 |
63 % |
|
Prop Bets and Props within Parlays: Bet Types |
| Prop Type |
Picks |
Correct |
% Correct |
Avg
Odds |
Longest
Odds |
Shortest
Odds |
1U Bet (ROI %) |
| Over (e.g. 1.5 / 2.5 rnds) |
4 (50%) |
2 |
50 % |
1.31 |
1.48 |
1.25 |
-1.5 (-36%) |
| Goes to Decision |
2 (25%) |
2 |
100 % |
1.42 |
1.42 |
1.42 |
0.8 (42%) |
| X Wins by Sub |
2 (25%) |
1 |
50 % |
8.52 |
12.00 |
6.60 |
4.6 (230%) |
|
8 |
5 |
63 % |
1.70 |
|
|
4.0 (50%) |
* 1U Bet (ROI %): Many of the picks will have been part of a parlay, however, as a rough guide to value / profitability, this figure supposes that the handicapper put a 1U bet on each of the picks individually, showing the profit / loss they would have made and the ROI %.
|
Tail tilt formula's bets |
If you had tailed this handicapper's bets for the last year, it would have affected your betting bank balance as follows... To view all time stats, click here.
This is more accurate than simply X units total profit. Under that more basic system, 1 unit is equal to the same amount of theoretical dollars, whether it was the last event or 10 events ago. However, if a handicapper has 10 events profit in a row, their betting bank balance will be significantly larger for the 10th event and 1 unit will equal a LOT more than it did 10 events ago.
| Date |
Event |
Bet |
Won |
ROI |
Fee |
1 unit = |
Start |
End |
| 1st Jun |
UFC 302 |
17 |
-0.8 |
-5% |
|
$10.00 |
$1,000.00 |
$992.00 |
| 15th Jun |
UFC Fight Night: Perez vs. Taira |
5 |
2.8 |
56% |
|
$9.92 |
$992.00 |
$1,019.78 |
| 22nd Jun |
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov |
4 |
-4.0 |
-100% |
|
$10.20 |
$1,019.78 |
$978.98 |
| 27th Jul |
UFC 304 |
8 |
6.3 |
79% |
|
$9.79 |
$978.98 |
$1,040.86 |
| 3rd Aug |
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov |
25 |
4.6 |
18% |
|
$10.41 |
$1,040.86 |
$1,088.74 |
| 10th Aug |
UFC Fight Night: Tybura vs. Spivac II |
5.5 |
0.8 |
15% |
|
$10.89 |
$1,088.74 |
$1,097.45 |
| 17th Aug |
UFC 305 |
13 |
5.0 |
39% |
|
$10.97 |
$1,097.45 |
$1,152.52 |
| 24th Aug |
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Borralho |
15.6 |
-0.2 |
-1% |
|
$11.53 |
$1,152.52 |
$1,150.55 |
| 7th Sep |
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady |
13 |
-3.7 |
-28% |
|
$11.51 |
$1,150.55 |
$1,107.98 |
| 7th Sep |
Bellator Champions Series |
7 |
2.5 |
36% |
|
$11.08 |
$1,107.98 |
$1,135.89 |
| 14th Sep |
UFC 306 |
4 |
1.9 |
47% |
|
$11.36 |
$1,135.89 |
$1,157.24 |
| 5th Oct |
UFC 307 |
13 |
3.6 |
28% |
|
$11.57 |
$1,157.24 |
$1,199.37 |
| 12th Oct |
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira |
18 |
-10.6 |
-59% |
|
$11.99 |
$1,199.37 |
$1,072.23 |
| 19th Oct |
PFL Super Fights: Battle of the Giants |
6 |
1.3 |
22% |
|
$10.72 |
$1,072.23 |
$1,086.39 |
| 19th Oct |
UFC Fight Night: Pereira vs. Hernandez |
14 |
-2.7 |
-19% |
|
$10.86 |
$1,086.39 |
$1,057.33 |
| 26th Oct |
UFC 308 |
46 |
20.1 |
44% |
|
$10.57 |
$1,057.33 |
$1,270.06 |
| 2nd Nov |
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Albazi |
11 |
4.3 |
39% |
|
$12.70 |
$1,270.06 |
$1,324.04 |
| 9th Nov |
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prates |
23 |
10.7 |
47% |
|
$13.24 |
$1,324.04 |
$1,466.18 |
| 16th Nov |
UFC 309 |
38.5 |
5.9 |
15% |
|
$14.66 |
$1,466.18 |
$1,552.09 |
| 23rd Nov |
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Figueiredo |
8 |
-8.0 |
-100% |
|
$15.52 |
$1,552.09 |
$1,427.93 |
| 7th Dec |
UFC 310 |
50.9 |
17.4 |
34% |
|
$14.28 |
$1,427.93 |
$1,677.05 |
| 14th Dec |
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley |
15 |
5.2 |
35% |
|
$16.77 |
$1,677.05 |
$1,765.09 |
| 11th Jan |
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas II |
38.5 |
-7.4 |
-19% |
|
$17.65 |
$1,765.09 |
$1,633.69 |
| 18th Jan |
UFC 311 |
43 |
-12.3 |
-29% |
|
$16.34 |
$1,633.69 |
$1,432.74 |
| 25th Jan |
PFL Road to Dubai |
32 |
3.6 |
11% |
|
$14.33 |
$1,432.74 |
$1,484.68 |
| 25th Jan |
KSW 102 |
21.5 |
-8.3 |
-39% |
|
$14.85 |
$1,484.68 |
$1,361.45 |
| 1st Feb |
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Imavov |
27 |
3.3 |
12% |
|
$13.61 |
$1,361.45 |
$1,406.38 |
| 8th Feb |
ACA 183 |
12 |
-0.2 |
-2% |
|
$14.06 |
$1,406.38 |
$1,403.15 |
| 8th Feb |
UFC 312 |
10 |
5.9 |
59% |
|
$14.03 |
$1,403.15 |
$1,485.93 |
| 15th Feb |
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues |
11 |
2.8 |
25% |
|
$14.86 |
$1,485.93 |
$1,526.79 |
| 22nd Feb |
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song |
41 |
-2.2 |
-5% |
|
$15.27 |
$1,526.79 |
$1,493.82 |
| 1st Mar |
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Almabayev |
25 |
8.3 |
33% |
|
$14.94 |
$1,493.82 |
$1,618.55 |
| 8th Mar |
UFC 313 |
24 |
3.2 |
13% |
|
$16.19 |
$1,618.55 |
$1,669.70 |
| 15th Mar |
Cage Warriors 185 |
5 |
2.1 |
42% |
|
$16.70 |
$1,669.70 |
$1,704.43 |
| 15th Mar |
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Dolidze II |
33 |
-8.6 |
-26% |
|
$17.04 |
$1,704.43 |
$1,557.85 |
| 21st Mar |
Cage Warriors 186 |
8 |
2.1 |
27% |
|
$15.58 |
$1,557.85 |
$1,591.19 |
| 22nd Mar |
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady |
6 |
1.0 |
16% |
|
$15.91 |
$1,591.19 |
$1,606.30 |
| 29th Mar |
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg |
25.1 |
6.1 |
24% |
|
$16.06 |
$1,606.30 |
$1,703.58 |
| 30th Mar |
Rizin 50 |
1 |
1.2 |
122% |
|
$17.04 |
$1,703.58 |
$1,724.37 |
| 3rd Apr |
PFL 2025: First Round 1 |
14.75 |
2.8 |
19% |
|
$17.24 |
$1,724.37 |
$1,773.34 |
| 5th Apr |
Oktagon 69 |
1.5 |
-1.5 |
-100% |
|
$17.73 |
$1,773.34 |
$1,746.74 |
| 5th Apr |
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Murphy |
34 |
8.3 |
24% |
|
$17.47 |
$1,746.74 |
$1,892.24 |
| 11th Apr |
ACA 185 |
1 |
1.4 |
138% |
|
$18.92 |
$1,892.24 |
$1,918.35 |
| 11th Apr |
LFA 206 |
2.1 |
2.4 |
115% |
|
$19.18 |
$1,918.35 |
$1,964.68 |
| 11th Apr |
PFL 2025: First Round 2 |
15 |
-9.3 |
-62% |
|
$19.65 |
$1,964.68 |
$1,781.96 |
| 12th Apr |
UFC 314 |
20.03 |
-2.1 |
-10% |
|
$17.82 |
$1,781.96 |
$1,744.90 |
| 18th Apr |
PFL 2025: First Round 3 |
11 |
1.4 |
13% |
|
$17.45 |
$1,744.90 |
$1,769.85 |
| 19th Apr |
Cage Warriors 187 |
17 |
2.5 |
15% |
|
$17.70 |
$1,769.85 |
$1,814.10 |
ROI % from starting bank balance: 81.41% (including fees)
*Note - we don't store historical fee amounts, so we assume the fees are the same as the handicapper charges now.
|
tilt formula: Last 20 Wins / Losses (Straight Picks) |
Last 20 Wins
| |
Date |
Straight Pick |
Opponent |
Odds |
Bet |
Result |
|
|
| 1. |
Apr '25 |
Jordan Stronge |
Chris Hayes |
1.20 |
11 |
TKO, R1 (4:57) |
|
|
| 2. |
Apr '25 |
Igor Wojtas |
Raz Bring |
1.26 |
5 |
Sub, R3 (3:57) |
|
|
| 3. |
Apr '25 |
Gadzhi Rabadanov |
Marc Diakiese |
1.13 |
11 |
TKO, R1 (0:32) |
|
|
| 4. |
Apr '25 |
Dan Ige |
Sean Woodson |
2.77 |
1 |
TKO, R3 (1:12) |
|
|
| 5. |
Apr '25 |
Virna Jandiroba |
Yan Xiaonan |
1.80 |
3 |
U Decision (3 rounds) |
|
|
| 6. |
Apr '25 |
Dominick Reyes |
Nikita Krylov |
2.46 |
0.5 |
TKO, R1 (2:24) |
|
|
| 7. |
Apr '25 |
Su Mudaerji |
Mitch Raposo |
1.71 |
5 |
Split Decision (3 rounds) |
|
|
| 8. |
Apr '25 |
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani |
Kegan Gennrich |
2.15 |
1.1 |
Sub, R1 (4:0) |
|
|
| 9. |
Apr '25 |
Liz Carmouche |
Ilara Joanne |
1.14 |
5 |
TKO, R1 (1:25) |
|
|
| 10. |
Apr '25 |
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani |
Kegan Gennrich |
2.15 |
1 |
Sub, R1 (4:0) |
|
|
| 11. |
Apr '25 |
Elias Silverio |
Viktor Azatyan |
2.38 |
1 |
Sub, R3 (2:37) |
|
|
| 12. |
Apr '25 |
Torrez Finney |
Robert Valentin |
1.35 |
3 |
U Decision (3 rounds) |
|
|
| 13. |
Apr '25 |
Loma Lookboonmee |
Istela Nunes |
1.13 |
11 |
U Decision (3 rounds) |
|
|
| 14. |
Apr '25 |
Dione Barbosa |
Diana Belbita |
1.11 |
11 |
Sub, R1 (4:13) |
|
|
| 15. |
Apr '25 |
Lerone Murphy |
Josh Emmett |
1.36 |
5 |
U Decision (5 rounds) |
|
|
| 16. |
Apr '25 |
Martin Buday |
Uran Satybaldiev |
1.70 |
2 |
U Decision (3 rounds) |
|
|
| 17. |
Apr '25 |
Chang Ho Lee |
Cortavious Romious |
1.72 |
2 |
TKO, R2 (3:48) |
|
|
| 18. |
Apr '25 |
Tae Kyun Kim |
Nathan Kelly |
1.72 |
3 |
Sub, R1 (4:53) |
|
|
| 19. |
Apr '25 |
Movlid Khaybulaev |
Jeremy Kennedy |
1.13 |
11 |
Split Decision (3 rounds) |
|
|
| 20. |
Mar '25 |
Shunta Nomura |
Luiz Gustavo |
2.22 |
1 |
U Decision (3 rounds) |
|
|
Last 20 Losses
| |
Date |
Straight Pick |
Opponent |
Odds |
Bet |
Result |
Hedge? |
|
|
| 1. |
Apr '25 |
Bailey Gilbert |
Paull McBain |
2.35 |
1 |
U Decision (3 rounds) |
No |
|
|
| 2. |
Apr '25 |
Nikita Krylov |
Dominick Reyes |
1.64 |
0.78 |
TKO, R1 (2:24) |
No |
|
|
| 3. |
Apr '25 |
Bryce Mitchell |
Jean Silva |
2.75 |
0.5 |
Sub, R2 (3:52) |
No |
|
|
| 4. |
Apr '25 |
Hailey Cowan |
Nora Cornolle |
3.05 |
0.5 |
Sub, R2 (1:52) |
No |
|
|
| 5. |
Apr '25 |
Patricio Freire |
Yair Rodriguez |
2.45 |
0.75 |
U Decision (3 rounds) |
No |
|
|
| 6. |
Apr '25 |
Kasum Kasumov |
Justin Wetzell |
1.27 |
10 |
U Decision (3 rounds) |
No |
|
|
| 7. |
Apr '25 |
Jose Zarauz |
Khalid Taha |
2.46 |
1.5 |
TKO, R2 (4:4) |
No |
|
|
| 8. |
Apr '25 |
Mukhamed Berkhamov |
Thad Jean |
2.81 |
0.75 |
TKO, R1 (4:25) |
No |
|
|
| 9. |
Mar '25 |
Luis Rodriguez |
Kevin Borjas |
1.69 |
2 |
U Decision (3 rounds) |
No |
|
|
| 10. |
Mar '25 |
Michael Parkin |
Marcin Tybura |
1.84 |
1 |
U Decision (3 rounds) |
No |
|
|
| 11. |
Mar '25 |
Diyar Nurgozhay |
Brendson Ribeiro |
1.26 |
5 |
Sub, R2 (1:28) |
No |
|
|
| 12. |
Mar '25 |
Josias Musasa |
Carlos Vera |
1.17 |
11 |
Sub, R1 (3:16) |
No |
|
|
| 13. |
Mar '25 |
Djorden Santos |
Ozzy Diaz |
1.54 |
7 |
U Decision (3 rounds) |
No |
|
|
| 14. |
Mar '25 |
Assu Almabaev |
Manel Kape |
3.00 |
1 |
TKO, R3 (2:16) |
No |
|
|
| 15. |
Feb '25 |
Jean Matsumoto |
Rob Font |
1.68 |
5 |
Split Decision (3 rounds) |
No |
|
|
| 16. |
Feb '25 |
Ibo Aslan |
Ion Cutelaba |
1.57 |
5 |
Sub, R1 (2:51) |
No |
|
|
| 17. |
Feb '25 |
Radzhab Ramazanov |
Nashkho Galaev |
2.30 |
1 |
U Decision (3 rounds) |
No |
|
|
| 18. |
Jan '25 |
Cezary Kesik |
Andi Vrtacic |
1.25 |
3 |
TKO, R2 (4:33) |
No |
|
|
| 19. |
Jan '25 |
Cezary Kesik |
Andi Vrtacic |
1.25 |
7.5 |
TKO, R2 (4:33) |
No |
|
|
| 20. |
Feb '25 |
Israel Adesanya |
Nassourdine Imavov |
1.64 |
5 |
TKO, R2 (0:30) |
No |
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* Hedge indicates that this handicapper also had a WINNING bet on the opponent. For example, they may have bet A to win straight up but with a hedge on the other fighter winning by decision.
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