MMA Handicapper Directory
Total MMA Handicappers: 6727
Profitable MMA Handicappers: 2448

MMA Handicapper Stats: tilt formula

tilt formula (tilt_formula)

MMA Betting Stats Summary

Overall Stats		Straight Fight Picks		Props		Parlays
Right	40 (68%)	Right	36 (67%)	Right	1 (100%)	Right	3 (75%)
Wrong	19 (32%)	Wrong	18 (33%)	Wrong	0 (0%)	Wrong	1 (25%)
Avg Odds	1.63	Avg Odds	1.62	Avg Odds	6.60	Avg Odds	1.46
Units Bet	209.9	Units Bet	194.3	Units Bet	1.6	Units Bet	14.0
Avg Bet	3.56	Avg Bet	3.60	Avg Bet	1.60	Avg Bet	3.50
Units Profit	26.30	Units Profit	18.21	Units Profit	8.96	Units Profit	-0.87
ROI %	13%	ROI %	9%	ROI %	560%	ROI %	-6%

tilt formula: Event by Event Predictions

The straight picks, parlays and props sections display Winnings / Bets (ROI%)

Date	Event	Bet	Won	ROI	Straight Picks	Props	Parlays
5th Oct '24	UFC 307	13	3.6	28%	3.6 / 13 (28%)
14th Sep '24	UFC 306	4	1.9	47%	1.9 / 4 (47%)
7th Sep '24	Bellator Champions Series	7	2.5	36%	1.1 / 5 (22%)		1.4 / 2 (71%)
7th Sep '24	UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady	13	-3.7	-28%	-3.7 / 13 (-28%)
24th Aug '24	UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Borralho	15.6	-0.2	-1%	-10.9 / 12 (-91%)	9.0 / 1.6 (560%)	1.8 / 2 (88%)
17th Aug '24	UFC 305	13	5.0	39%	4.1 / 8 (51%)		0.9 / 5 (19%)
10th Aug '24	UFC Fight Night: Tybura vs. Spivac II	5.5	0.8	15%	0.8 / 5.5 (15%)
3rd Aug '24	UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov	25	4.6	18%	4.6 / 25 (18%)
27th Jul '24	UFC 304	8	6.3	79%	6.3 / 8 (79%)
22nd Jun '24	UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov	4	-4.0	-100%	-4.0 / 4 (-100%)
15th Jun '24	UFC Fight Night: Perez vs. Taira	5	2.8	56%	2.8 / 5 (56%)
1st Jun '24	UFC 302	17	-0.8	-5%	-0.8 / 17 (-5%)
13th Apr '24	UFC 300	16.75	2.7	16%	2.7 / 16.75 (16%)
6th Apr '24	UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis II	5	0.6	13%	0.6 / 5 (13%)
9th Mar '24	UFC 299	11	2.1	19%	2.1 / 11 (19%)
2nd Mar '24	UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev	13	-6.4	-49%	-1.4 / 8 (-18%)		-5.0 / 5 (-100%)
24th Feb '24	UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval	2	1.3	65%	1.3 / 2 (65%)
13th Jan '24	UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker	10	2.1	21%	2.1 / 10 (21%)
16th Dec '23	UFC 296	5	0.9	19%	0.9 / 5 (19%)
9th Dec '23	UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez	11	1.0	9%	1.0 / 11 (9%)
5th Dec '23	Brave CF 77	5	4.0	80%	4.0 / 5 (80%)
11th Nov '23	UFC 295	1	-1.0	-100%	-1.0 / 1 (-100%)

Winning Events: 16 (73%)
Losing Events: 6 (27%)

Average Staked Per Event: 9.54 units
Most Staked On One Event: 25.00 units
Best Event: 6.32 units
Worst Event: -6.40 units
Average Event: 1.20 units

Max Win Streak: Events: 5, Units: 16.74
Max Losing Streak: Events: 2, Units: -6.40

tilt formula: Year on Year Profit

Year	Bet	Won	ROI	Straight Won / Bet (ROI%)	Prop Won / Bet (ROI%)	Parlay Won / Bet (ROI%)	Events Won / Lost (%)	Profit Per Event
2024	187.85	21.4	11%	13.3 / 172.25 (8%)		-0.9 / 14 (-6%)	13 / 5 (72%)	1.19
2023	22	4.9	22%	4.9 / 22 (22%)			3 / 1 (75%)	1.24

tilt formula: Yearly Straight Pick Stats

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tilt formula: Profit / Loss by Organization

Organization	Bet	Won	ROI	Straight Picks	Props	Parlays
UFC	197.85	19.8	10%	13.1 / 184.25 (7%)	9.0 / 1.6 (560%)	-2.3 / 12 (-19%)
Bellator	7	2.5	36%	1.1 / 5 (22%)		1.4 / 2 (71%)
Other	5	4.0	80%	4.0 / 5 (80%)

tilt formula: Straight Pick Stats

Big favourite means >65% win chance according to bookies. Big underdog is <35% chance.

	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Units Bet	Units Profit	Profit per Pick	ROI
Big Favorites	31 (51%)	25	81 %	123.00	7.44	0.24	6%
Slight Favorites	15 (25%)	10	67 %	45.00	6.66	0.44	15%
Slight Underdogs	9 (15%)	3	33 %	20.00	0.78	0.09	4%
Big Underdogs	6 (10%)	2	33 %	6.25	3.33	0.55	53%

Betting Stats By Card Position

	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Units Bet	Units Profit	Profit per Pick	ROI
Main Event	13 (21%)	9	69 %	44.00	6.32	0.49	14%
Co-Main Event	3 (5%)	2	67 %	5.75	1.35	0.45	23%
Position 3-5	15 (25%)	10	67 %	53.00	11.27	0.75	21%
6+ (Undercard)	30 (49%)	19	63 %	91.50	-0.72	-0.02	-1%

tilt formula: Profit by Weight Class

	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Units Bet	Units Profit	Profit per Pick	ROI
Heavyweight	8 (13%)	4	50 %	20.00	-0.47	-0.06	-2%
Light Heavy	3 (5%)	3	100 %	9.00	4.12	1.37	46%
Middleweight	7 (11%)	3	43 %	25.00	-11.50	-1.64	-46%
Welterweight	8 (13%)	5	63 %	24.00	3.67	0.46	15%
Lightweight	11 (18%)	6	55 %	40.00	-4.21	-0.38	-11%
Featherweight	3 (5%)	2	67 %	5.50	2.74	0.91	50%
Bantamweight	5 (8%)	4	80 %	18.00	9.39	1.88	52%
Flyweight	8 (13%)	8	100 %	33.00	15.58	1.95	47%

Women's Fights	8 (13%)	5	63 %	19.75	-1.11	-0.14	-6%
Bantamweight	5 (8%)	4	80 %	13.00	4.54	0.91	35%
Flyweight	1 (2%)	1	100 %	1.00	0.10	0.10	10%
Strawweight	2 (3%)		0 %	5.75	-5.75	-2.88	-100%

Props & Parlay Section Stats (Individual sections of this handicapper's parlays)

Straight picks within parlays

	Picks	Correct	% Correct
Big Favorites	11 (100%)	10	91 %
Slight Favorites	0 (0%)	0	nan %
Slight Underdogs	0 (0%)	0	nan %
Big Underdogs	0 (0%)	0	nan %
	11	10	91 %

Props bets and props within parlays

	Picks	Correct	% Correct
>65% chance	0 (0%)	0	nan %
50-65%	0 (0%)	0	nan %
35-50%	0 (0%)	0	nan %
<35% chance	1 (100%)	1	100 %
	1	1	100 %

Prop Bets and Props within Parlays: Bet Types

Prop Type	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Avg Odds	Longest Odds	Shortest Odds	1U Bet (ROI %)
X Wins by Sub	1 (100%)	1	100 %	6.60	6.60	6.60	5.6 (560%)
	1	1	100 %	6.60			5.6 (560%)

* 1U Bet (ROI %): Many of the picks will have been part of a parlay, however, as a rough guide to value / profitability, this figure supposes that the handicapper put a 1U bet on each of the picks individually, showing the profit / loss they would have made and the ROI %.

Tail tilt formula's bets

If you had tailed this handicapper's bets since they started logging their picks with us, it would have affected your betting bank balance as follows...

This is more accurate than simply X units total profit. Under that more basic system, 1 unit is equal to the same amount of theoretical dollars, whether it was the last event or 10 events ago. However, if a handicapper has 10 events profit in a row, their betting bank balance will be significantly larger for the 10th event and 1 unit will equal a LOT more than it did 10 events ago.

Date	Event	Bet	Won	ROI	Fee	1 unit =	Start	End
11th Nov	UFC 295	1	-1.0	-100%		$10.00	$1,000.00	$990.00
5th Dec	Brave CF 77	5	4.0	80%		$9.90	$990.00	$1,029.60
9th Dec	UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez	11	1.0	9%		$10.30	$1,029.60	$1,039.89
16th Dec	UFC 296	5	0.9	19%		$10.40	$1,039.89	$1,049.77
13th Jan	UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker	10	2.1	21%		$10.50	$1,049.77	$1,071.66
24th Feb	UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval	2	1.3	65%		$10.72	$1,071.66	$1,085.51
2nd Mar	UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev	13	-6.4	-49%		$10.86	$1,085.51	$1,016.03
9th Mar	UFC 299	11	2.1	19%		$10.16	$1,016.03	$1,037.68
6th Apr	UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis II	5	0.6	13%		$10.38	$1,037.68	$1,044.32
13th Apr	UFC 300	16.75	2.7	16%		$10.44	$1,044.32	$1,072.49
1st Jun	UFC 302	17	-0.8	-5%		$10.72	$1,072.49	$1,063.91
15th Jun	UFC Fight Night: Perez vs. Taira	5	2.8	56%		$10.64	$1,063.91	$1,093.70
22nd Jun	UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov	4	-4.0	-100%		$10.94	$1,093.70	$1,049.95
27th Jul	UFC 304	8	6.3	79%		$10.50	$1,049.95	$1,116.31
3rd Aug	UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov	25	4.6	18%		$11.16	$1,116.31	$1,167.66
10th Aug	UFC Fight Night: Tybura vs. Spivac II	5.5	0.8	15%		$11.68	$1,167.66	$1,177.00
17th Aug	UFC 305	13	5.0	39%		$11.77	$1,177.00	$1,236.07
24th Aug	UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Borralho	15.6	-0.2	-1%		$12.36	$1,236.07	$1,233.96
7th Sep	UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady	13	-3.7	-28%		$12.34	$1,233.96	$1,188.30
7th Sep	Bellator Champions Series	7	2.5	36%		$11.88	$1,188.30	$1,218.23
14th Sep	UFC 306	4	1.9	47%		$12.18	$1,218.23	$1,241.14
5th Oct	UFC 307	13	3.6	28%		$12.41	$1,241.14	$1,286.31

ROI % from starting bank balance: 28.63% (including fees)
*Note - we don't store historical fee amounts, so we assume the fees are the same as the handicapper charges now.

tilt formula: Last 20 Wins / Losses (Straight Picks)

Last 20 Wins

	Date	Straight Pick	Opponent	Odds	Bet	Result
1.	Oct '24	Joaquin Buckley	Stephen Thompson	1.48	3	TKO, R3 (2:17)
2.	Oct '24	César Almeida	Ihor Potieria	1.28	5	U Decision (3 rounds)
3.	Oct '24	Kayla Harrison	Ketlen Vieira	1.16	5	U Decision (3 rounds)
4.	Sep '24	Joshua Van	Edgar Chairez	1.47	4	U Decision (3 rounds)
5.	Sep '24	Usman Nurmagomedov	Alexander Shabliy	1.22	2	U Decision (5 rounds)
6.	Sep '24	Sean Brady	Gilbert Burns	1.50	3	U Decision (5 rounds)
7.	Sep '24	Usman Nurmagomedov	Alexander Shabliy	1.22	3	U Decision (5 rounds)
8.	Sep '24	Steve Garcia	Kyle Nelson	1.60	3	TKO, R1 (3:59)
9.	Aug '24	Cong Wang	Victoria Leonardo	1.10	1	TKO, R1 (1:2)
10.	Aug '24	Valter Walker	Junior Tafa	2.10	3	Sub, R1 (4:56)
11.	Aug '24	Jesus Santos Aguilar	Stewart Nicoll	2.89	2	Sub, R1 (2:39)
12.	Aug '24	Danny Barlow	Nikolay Veretennikov	1.26	5	Split Decision (3 rounds)
13.	Aug '24	Sharabutdin Magomedov	Michal Oleksiejczuk	1.42	2	U Decision (3 rounds)
14.	Aug '24	Shamil Gaziev	Don'tale Mayes	1.48	2	U Decision (3 rounds)
15.	Aug '24	Deiveson Figueiredo	Marlon Vera	1.66	5	U Decision (3 rounds)
16.	Aug '24	Sharabutdin Magomedov	Michal Oleksiejczuk	1.42	3	U Decision (3 rounds)
17.	Aug '24	Shamil Gaziev	Don'tale Mayes	1.48	3	U Decision (3 rounds)
18.	Jul '24	Muhammad Mokaev	Manel Kape	1.58	4	U Decision (3 rounds)
19.	Jul '24	Paddy Pimblett	Bobby Green	2.00	4	Sub, R1 (3:22)
20.	Aug '24	Umar Nurmagomedov	Cory Sandhagen	1.36	5	U Decision (5 rounds)

Last 20 Losses

	Date	Straight Pick	Opponent	Odds	Bet	Result	Hedge?
1.	Sep '24	Zhu Rong	Chris Padilla	1.42	4	TKO, R2 (4:14)	No
2.	Sep '24	Trevor Peek	Yanal Ashmoz	1.88	3	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
3.	Aug '24	Edmen Shahbazyan	Gerald Meerschaert	1.35	6	Sub, R2 (4:12)	Yes
4.	Aug '24	Edmen Shahbazyan	Gerald Meerschaert	1.31	5	Sub, R2 (4:12)	Yes
5.	Aug '24	Mateusz Gamrot	Daniel Hooker	1.41	3	Split Decision (3 rounds)	No
6.	Aug '24	Jarno Errens	Youssef Zalal	4.72	0.5	Sub, R1 (3:52)	No
7.	Aug '24	Viktoriya Dudakova	Sam Hughes	1.57	5	Split Decision (3 rounds)	No
8.	Jun '24	Ikram Aliskerov	Robert Whittaker	2.20	1	TKO, R1 (1:49)	No
9.	Jun '24	Ikram Aliskerov	Robert Whittaker	2.20	3	TKO, R1 (1:49)	No
10.	Jun '24	Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos	Randy Brown	2.59	1	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
11.	Jun '24	Alex Morono	Niko Price	1.41	3	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
12.	Apr '24	Yan Xiaonan	Weili Zhang	4.65	0.75	U Decision (5 rounds)	No
13.	Apr '24	Valter Walker	Lukasz Brzeski	1.42	1	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
14.	Apr '24	Court McGee	Alex Morono	3.64	1	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
15.	Apr '24	Pedro Falcao	Victor Hugo Silva	2.23	1	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
16.	Mar '24	Jailton Junior	Curtis Blaydes	1.94	3	TKO, R2 (0:36)	No
17.	Apr '24	Jim Miller	Bobby Green	2.70	3	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
18.	Mar '24	Shamil Gaziev	Jairzinho Rozenstruik	1.70	1	TKO, R4 (5:0)	No
19.	Mar '24	Shamil Gaziev	Jairzinho Rozenstruik	1.70	2	TKO, R4 (5:0)	No
20.	Dec '23	Stephanie Egger	Luana Santos	2.59	1	U Decision (3 rounds)	No

* Hedge indicates that this handicapper also had a WINNING bet on the opponent. For example, they may have bet A to win straight up but with a hedge on the other fighter winning by decision.

tilt formula: Progress Chart

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