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MMA Handicapper Stats: Paul lucidmmapicks

Paul lucidmmapicks (lucidmmapicks)

MMA Betting Stats Summary

Overall Stats		Straight Fight Picks		Props		Parlays
Right	77 (48%)	Right	35 (59%)	Right	34 (41%)	Right	8 (44%)
Wrong	83 (52%)	Wrong	24 (41%)	Wrong	49 (59%)	Wrong	10 (56%)
Avg Odds	2.04	Avg Odds	1.75	Avg Odds	2.34	Avg Odds	1.93
Units Bet	348.4	Units Bet	154.8	Units Bet	158.9	Units Bet	34.8
Avg Bet	2.18	Avg Bet	2.62	Avg Bet	1.91	Avg Bet	1.93
Units Profit	1.62	Units Profit	6.00	Units Profit	5.70	Units Profit	-10.08
ROI %	0%	ROI %	4%	ROI %	4%	ROI %	-29%

Paul lucidmmapicks: Event by Event Predictions

The straight picks, parlays and props sections display Winnings / Bets (ROI%)

Date	Event	Bet	Won	ROI	Straight Picks	Props	Parlays
13th Apr '24	UFC 300	29.5	2.5	9%	1.9 / 12.6 (15%)	-0.5 / 15.5 (-3%)	1.1 / 1.4 (77%)
23rd Mar '24	UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas	14	7.5	53%	3.1 / 5.5 (57%)	4.3 / 8.5 (51%)
16th Mar '24	UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Tybura	12	-1.5	-13%		-3.5 / 10 (-35%)	2.0 / 2 (98%)
9th Mar '24	UFC 299	9.25	-5.1	-55%	-3.3 / 7.5 (-44%)	-1.8 / 1.75 (-100%)
2nd Mar '24	UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev	15.75	1.2	8%	1.5 / 1 (150%)	-1.4 / 12.75 (-11%)	1.1 / 2 (55%)
24th Feb '24	UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval	14	0.7	5%	-3.0 / 3 (-100%)	3.7 / 11 (34%)
17th Feb '24	UFC 298	26.35	8.1	31%	5.5 / 13.1 (42%)	3.6 / 12.25 (30%)	-1.0 / 1 (-100%)
10th Feb '24	UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer	16.85	-1.2	-7%	-3.6 / 11.1 (-32%)	2.3 / 5.75 (41%)
3rd Feb '24	UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Imavov	17.85	1.6	9%	-0.4 / 4.5 (-9%)	5.5 / 9.85 (56%)	-3.5 / 3.5 (-100%)
20th Jan '24	UFC 297	14.35	-5.9	-41%	-7.1 / 12.05 (-59%)	1.2 / 2.3 (52%)
13th Jan '24	UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker	12.5	-1.9	-15%	1.7 / 4.75 (37%)	-1.2 / 5.25 (-22%)	-2.5 / 2.5 (-100%)
16th Dec '23	UFC 296	20.1	7.7	38%	7.2 / 10.6 (68%)	0.0 / 7.5 (0%)	0.5 / 2 (26%)
2nd Dec '23	UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan	23	-4.5	-20%	-4.8 / 4.8 (-100%)	3.0 / 15.5 (19%)	-2.7 / 2.7 (-100%)
18th Nov '23	UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig	8.35	0.1	1%	-0.1 / 6.35 (-2%)	0.2 / 2 (10%)
11th Nov '23	UFC 295	22.8	-1.3	-6%	2.6 / 12 (21%)	-3.9 / 10.8 (-36%)
4th Nov '23	UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Almeida	16.75	-1.1	-7%	0.6 / 10 (6%)	0.0 / 2.75 (0%)	-1.7 / 4 (-43%)
21st Oct '23	UFC 294	29.2	2.0	7%	5.0 / 14.5 (34%)	-1.9 / 8.5 (-22%)	-1.1 / 6.2 (-17%)
14th Oct '23	UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Barboza	11.45	-6.5	-56%	-1.8 / 6.8 (-26%)	-4.7 / 4.65 (-100%)
7th Oct '23	UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Green	10.1	-3.5	-35%	-1.0 / 5.1 (-20%)	-0.5 / 3 (-17%)	-2.0 / 2 (-100%)
23rd Sep '23	UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gamrot	9.75	-1.2	-12%	1.8 / 3.5 (51%)	-1.0 / 4.25 (-24%)	-2.0 / 2 (-100%)
16th Sep '23	UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Shevchenko II	8.5	0.6	7%	-0.9 / 5 (-18%)	1.0 / 2 (50%)	0.5 / 1.5 (33%)
9th Sep '23	UFC 293	6.5	3.2	49%	1.0 / 1 (95%)	1.0 / 3.5 (29%)	1.3 / 2 (63%)

Winning Events: 11 (50%)
Losing Events: 11 (50%)

Average Staked Per Event: 15.86 units
Most Staked On One Event: 29.50 units
Best Event: 8.12 units
Worst Event: -6.45 units
Average Event: 0.07 units

Max Win Streak: Events: 3, Units: 10.07
Max Losing Streak: Events: 3, Units: -11.16

Paul lucidmmapicks: Year on Year Profit

Year	Bet	Won	ROI	Straight Won / Bet (ROI%)	Prop Won / Bet (ROI%)	Parlay Won / Bet (ROI%)	Events Won / Lost (%)	Profit Per Event
2024	182.4	6.1	3%	-3.5 / 75.1 (-5%)		-2.9 / 12.4 (-23%)	6 / 5 (55%)	0.55
2023	166.5	-4.5	-3%	9.5 / 79.65 (12%)		-7.2 / 22.4 (-32%)	5 / 6 (45%)	-0.40

Paul lucidmmapicks: Yearly Straight Pick Stats

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Paul lucidmmapicks: Profit / Loss by Organization

Organization	Bet	Won	ROI	Straight Picks	Props	Parlays
UFC	348.9	1.6	0%	6.0 / 154.75 (4%)	5.7 / 159.35 (4%)	-10.1 / 34.8 (-29%)

Paul lucidmmapicks: Straight Pick Stats

Big favourite means >65% win chance according to bookies. Big underdog is <35% chance.

	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Units Bet	Units Profit	Profit per Pick	ROI
Big Favorites	17 (28%)	14	82 %	62.25	9.49	0.56	15%
Slight Favorites	28 (47%)	17	61 %	73.00	3.92	0.14	5%
Slight Underdogs	12 (20%)	4	33 %	17.25	-6.66	-0.56	-39%
Big Underdogs	3 (5%)	1	33 %	2.25	-0.75	-0.25	-33%

Betting Stats By Card Position

	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Units Bet	Units Profit	Profit per Pick	ROI
Main Event	11 (18%)	8	73 %	38.45	10.99	1.00	29%
Co-Main Event	7 (12%)	4	57 %	25.50	-0.17	-0.02	-1%
Position 3-5	22 (37%)	12	55 %	50.75	-3.75	-0.17	-7%
6+ (Undercard)	20 (33%)	12	60 %	40.05	-1.06	-0.05	-3%

Paul lucidmmapicks: Profit by Weight Class

	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Units Bet	Units Profit	Profit per Pick	ROI
Heavyweight	4 (7%)	3	75 %	14.80	1.95	0.49	13%
Light Heavy	6 (10%)	4	67 %	14.55	7.99	1.33	55%
Middleweight	9 (15%)	5	56 %	27.20	0.67	0.07	2%
Welterweight	7 (12%)	5	71 %	20.40	6.07	0.87	30%
Lightweight	6 (10%)	3	50 %	13.50	-1.00	-0.17	-7%
Featherweight	9 (15%)	5	56 %	17.80	-2.01	-0.22	-11%
Bantamweight	8 (13%)	4	50 %	22.30	-4.22	-0.53	-19%
Flyweight	3 (5%)	3	100 %	4.75	3.54	1.18	75%

Women's Fights	8 (13%)	4	50 %	19.45	-7.00	-0.88	-36%
Bantamweight	1 (2%)		0 %	4.00	-4.00	-4.00	-100%
Flyweight	2 (3%)		0 %	3.50	-3.50	-1.75	-100%
Strawweight	5 (8%)	4	80 %	11.95	0.50	0.10	4%

Props & Parlay Section Stats (Individual sections of this handicapper's parlays)

Straight picks within parlays

	Picks	Correct	% Correct
Big Favorites	27 (75%)	19	70 %
Slight Favorites	9 (25%)	6	67 %
Slight Underdogs	0 (0%)	0	nan %
Big Underdogs	0 (0%)	0	nan %
	36	25	69 %

Props bets and props within parlays

	Picks	Correct	% Correct
>65% chance	22 (26%)	15	68 %
50-65%	20 (24%)	9	45 %
35-50%	10 (12%)	4	40 %
<35% chance	33 (39%)	5	15 %
	85	33	39 %

Prop Bets and Props within Parlays: Bet Types

Prop Type	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Avg Odds	Longest Odds	Shortest Odds	1U Bet (ROI %)
Over (e.g. 1.5 / 2.5 rnds)	2 (2%)	1	50 %	1.91	2.75	1.47	0.7 (37%)
Under (e.g. 1.5 / 2.5 rnds)	2 (2%)	2	100 %	1.30	1.36	1.25	0.6 (31%)
Goes to Decision	1 (1%)	0	0 %	1.40	1.40	1.40	-1.0 (-100%)
Does not go to Decision	27 (32%)	15	56 %	1.62	2.20	1.29	-3.4 (-13%)
Fight Starts Round X	4 (5%)	1	25 %	2.00	4.20	1.57	-2.4 (-61%)
Fight Doesn't Start Round X	1 (1%)	0	0 %	1.69	1.69	1.69	-1.0 (-100%)
X Wins by KO	4 (5%)	1	25 %	2.89	4.00	1.67	-2.3 (-58%)
X Wins by Sub	10 (12%)	2	20 %	4.66	21.00	2.10	4.5 (45%)
X Wins by Decision	12 (14%)	2	17 %	5.50	12.00	3.20	8.0 (67%)
X Wins in Round X	10 (12%)	2	20 %	8.89	36.00	2.75	27.8 (278%)
Others	12 (14%)	7	58 %	1.66	2.80	1.30	-0.5 (-4%)
	85	33	39 %	2.32			31.0 (36%)

* 1U Bet (ROI %): Many of the picks will have been part of a parlay, however, as a rough guide to value / profitability, this figure supposes that the handicapper put a 1U bet on each of the picks individually, showing the profit / loss they would have made and the ROI %.

Tail Paul lucidmmapicks's bets

If you had tailed this handicapper's bets since they started logging their picks with us, it would have affected your betting bank balance as follows...

This is more accurate than simply X units total profit. Under that more basic system, 1 unit is equal to the same amount of theoretical dollars, whether it was the last event or 10 events ago. However, if a handicapper has 10 events profit in a row, their betting bank balance will be significantly larger for the 10th event and 1 unit will equal a LOT more than it did 10 events ago.

Date	Event	Bet	Won	ROI	Fee	1 unit =	Start	End
9th Sep	UFC 293	6.5	3.2	49%		$10.00	$1,000.00	$1,032.12
16th Sep	UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Shevchenko II	8.5	0.6	7%		$10.32	$1,032.12	$1,038.21
23rd Sep	UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gamrot	9.75	-1.2	-12%		$10.38	$1,038.21	$1,025.66
7th Oct	UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Green	10.1	-3.5	-35%		$10.26	$1,025.66	$989.76
14th Oct	UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Barboza	11.45	-6.5	-56%		$9.90	$989.76	$925.92
21st Oct	UFC 294	29.2	2.0	7%		$9.26	$925.92	$944.74
4th Nov	UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Almeida	16.75	-1.1	-7%		$9.45	$944.74	$934.27
11th Nov	UFC 295	22.8	-1.3	-6%		$9.34	$934.27	$922.22
18th Nov	UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig	8.35	0.1	1%		$9.22	$922.22	$923.22
2nd Dec	UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan	23	-4.5	-20%		$9.23	$923.22	$881.26
16th Dec	UFC 296	20.1	7.7	38%		$8.81	$881.26	$949.17
13th Jan	UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker	12.5	-1.9	-15%		$9.49	$949.17	$930.87
20th Jan	UFC 297	14.35	-5.9	-41%		$9.31	$930.87	$876.30
3rd Feb	UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Imavov	17.85	1.6	9%		$8.76	$876.30	$890.26
10th Feb	UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer	16.85	-1.2	-7%		$8.90	$890.26	$879.43
17th Feb	UFC 298	26.35	8.1	31%		$8.79	$879.43	$950.84
24th Feb	UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval	14	0.7	5%		$9.51	$950.84	$957.76
2nd Mar	UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev	15.75	1.2	8%		$9.58	$957.76	$969.46
9th Mar	UFC 299	9.25	-5.1	-55%		$9.69	$969.46	$920.50
16th Mar	UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Tybura	12	-1.5	-13%		$9.20	$920.50	$906.38
23rd Mar	UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas	14	7.5	53%		$9.06	$906.38	$974.25
13th Apr	UFC 300	29.5	2.5	9%		$9.74	$974.25	$998.76

ROI % from starting bank balance: -0.12% (including fees)
*Note - we don't store historical fee amounts, so we assume the fees are the same as the handicapper charges now.

Paul lucidmmapicks: Last 20 Wins / Losses (Straight Picks)

Last 20 Wins

	Date	Straight Pick	Opponent	Odds	Bet	Result
1.	Apr '24	Jiri Prochazka	Aleksandar Rakic	1.95	2.1	TKO, R2 (3:17)
2.	Apr '24	Alex Pereira	Jamahal Hill	1.74	6	TKO, R1 (3:14)
3.	Mar '24	Michael Parkin	Mohammed Usman	1.70	1.5	U Decision (3 rounds)
4.	Mar '24	Edmen Shahbazyan	AJ Dobson	1.52	4	TKO, R1 (4:33)
5.	Mar '24	Loik Radzhabov	Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady	2.50	1	TKO, R3 (0:49)
6.	Mar '24	Jack Della Maddalena	Gilbert Burns	1.91	2.2	TKO, R3 (3:43)
7.	Feb '24	Amanda Lemos	Mackenzie Dern	1.77	2.6	U Decision (3 rounds)
8.	Feb '24	Dan Ige	Andre Fili	1.57	2	TKO, R1 (2:43)
9.	Feb '24	Rodolfo Vieira	Armen Petrosyan	1.83	2.4	Sub, R1 (4:48)
10.	Feb '24	Ian Garry	Geoff Neal	1.44	4.5	Split Decision (3 rounds)
11.	Feb '24	Merab Dvalishvili	Henry Cejudo	1.54	2	U Decision (3 rounds)
12.	Feb '24	Randy Brown	Muslim Salikhov	1.36	3	TKO, R1 (3:17)
13.	Feb '24	Ilia Topuria	Alex Volkanovski	2.20	2	TKO, R2 (3:32)
14.	Jan '24	Dricus Du Plessis	Sean Strickland	1.87	2.3	Split Decision (5 rounds)
15.	Jan '24	Jimmy Flick	Malcolm Gordon	2.75	0.25	Sub, R2 (1:17)
16.	Jan '24	Marcus McGhee	Gaston Bolanos	1.44	4.5	TKO, R2 (3:29)
17.	Dec '23	Alexandre Pantoja	Brandon Royval	1.53	4	U Decision (5 rounds)
18.	Dec '23	Leon Edwards	Colby Covington	1.77	4	U Decision (5 rounds)
19.	Nov '23	Amanda Ribas	Luana Pinheiro	1.44	2.25	TKO, R3 (3:53)
20.	Nov '23	Chase Hooper	Jordan Leavitt	1.50	2	Sub, R1 (2:58)

Last 20 Losses

	Date	Straight Pick	Opponent	Odds	Bet	Result	Hedge?
1.	Apr '24	Justin Gaethje	Max Holloway	1.67	3	TKO, R5 (4:59)	No
2.	Apr '24	Calvin Kattar	Aljamain Sterling	2.40	1.5	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
3.	Mar '24	Yadong Song	Petr Yan	2.05	2	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
4.	Feb '24	Yair Rodriguez	Brian Ortega	1.67	3	Sub, R3 (0:58)	No
5.	Mar '24	Jailton Junior	Curtis Blaydes	1.93	3.3	TKO, R2 (0:36)	No
6.	Feb '24	Darrius Flowers	Michael Johnson	2.15	1	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
7.	Feb '24	Zac Pauga	Bogdan Guskov	1.83	1.2	TKO, R1 (3:38)	No
8.	Feb '24	Joe Pyfer	Jack Hermansson	1.44	4.5	U Decision (5 rounds)	Yes
9.	Feb '24	Roman Kopylov	Anthony Hernandez	2.45	2	Sub, R2 (3:23)	No
10.	Feb '24	Drew Dober	Renato Moicano	2.50	1.5	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
11.	Jan '24	Mayra Bueno Silva	Raquel Pennington	1.61	4	U Decision (5 rounds)	No
12.	Jan '24	Brad Katona	Garrett Armfield	1.48	2	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
13.	Jan '24	Serhiy Sidey	Ramon Taveras	1.57	3.5	Split Decision (3 rounds)	No
14.	Jan '24	Johnny Walker	Magomed Ankalaev	5.00	0.25	TKO, R2 (2:42)	No
15.	Dec '23	Kelvin Gastelum	Sean Brady	2.00	2	Sub, R3 (1:43)	No
16.	Dec '23	Rob Font	Deiveson Figueiredo	1.71	2.8	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
17.	Nov '23	Uros Medic	Myktybek Orolbai	1.95	2.1	Sub, R2 (4:12)	No
18.	Nov '23	Abusupiyan Magomedov	Caio Borralho	3.40	1.5	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
19.	Nov '23	Mackenzie Dern	Jessica Andrade	1.51	4	TKO, R2 (3:15)	No
20.	Oct '23	Sodiq Yusuff	Edson Barboza	1.61	3.3	U Decision (5 rounds)	No

* Hedge indicates that this handicapper also had a WINNING bet on the opponent. For example, they may have bet A to win straight up but with a hedge on the other fighter winning by decision.

Paul lucidmmapicks: Progress Chart

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