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MMA Handicapper Stats: Rafael Amador

Rafael Amador (RafaelAmador)
Mixed Martial Arts Management - Rafael Amador

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MMA Betting Stats Summary

Overall Stats

Straight Fight Picks

Props

Parlays
Right 57 (53%) Right 16 (42%) Right 21 (78%) Right 20 (48%)
Wrong 50 (47%) Wrong 22 (58%) Wrong 6 (22%) Wrong 22 (52%)
Avg Odds 1.71 Avg Odds 1.56 Avg Odds 1.40 Avg Odds 2.19
Units Bet 124.9 Units Bet 37.3 Units Bet 25.3 Units Bet 62.4
Avg Bet 1.17 Avg Bet 0.98 Avg Bet 0.94 Avg Bet 1.49
Units Profit -1.47 Units Profit -7.31 Units Profit 9.22 Units Profit -3.37
ROI % -1% ROI % -20% ROI % 36% ROI % -5%
View Handicapper's Profile

Rafael Amador: Event by Event Predictions
The straight picks, parlays and props sections display Winnings / Bets (ROI%)

Date Event Bet Won ROI Straight Picks Props Parlays
13th Apr '24 UFC 300 10 5.7 57% -1.0 / 3 (-35%) 1.1 / 1 (115%) 5.6 / 6 (93%)
10th Feb '24 UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer 5 -5.0 -100% -5.0 / 5 (-100%)
20th Jan '24 UFC 297 9 -1.8 -20% 1.0 / 3 (32%) -2.8 / 6 (-47%)
16th Dec '23 UFC 296 8 5.3 66% 5.3 / 8 (66%)
9th Dec '23 UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez 2.5 -0.6 -24% -0.6 / 2.5 (-24%)
2nd Dec '23 UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan 7 -5.4 -77% -0.4 / 2 (-21%) -5.0 / 5 (-100%)
18th Nov '23 UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig 4.2 3.5 84% 1.4 / 1.7 (84%) 2.1 / 2.5 (83%)
11th Nov '23 UFC 295 6 -2.4 -39% -1.0 / 3 (-32%) -0.4 / 2 (-20%) -1.0 / 1 (-100%)
21st Oct '23 UFC 294 8.5 0.9 11% -1.0 / 1 (-100%) 0.0 / 1.5 (0%) 1.9 / 6 (32%)
7th Oct '23 UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Green 7 -5.5 -78% -2.0 / 2 (-100%) 0.0 / 1.5 (3%) -3.5 / 3.5 (-100%)
23rd Sep '23 UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gamrot 5 -1.6 -33% 1.4 / 2 (69%) -3.0 / 3 (-100%)
16th Sep '23 UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Shevchenko II 6.5 1.5 23% 0.4 / 0.5 (75%) 0.2 / 3 (8%) 0.9 / 3 (28%)
9th Sep '23 UFC 293 6.33 -3.9 -61% -0.1 / 2.5 (-2%) -3.8 / 3.83 (-100%)
2nd Sep '23 UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Spivac 4 4.0 100% 0.5 / 0.5 (102%) 0.5 / 1 (52%) 3.0 / 2.5 (119%)
26th Aug '23 UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Jung 2.5 2.2 88% 0.4 / 1 (45%) 0.8 / 0.5 (163%) 0.9 / 1 (95%)
19th Aug '23 UFC 292 12.8 -0.5 -4% -4.3 / 5 (-86%) 2.6 / 4.8 (53%) 1.2 / 3 (40%)
12th Aug '23 UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos Anjos 6.5 -0.1 -2% 0.6 / 3.5 (18%) -0.7 / 3 (-24%)
5th Aug '23 UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Font 10.05 1.5 15% -0.2 / 5.75 (-4%) 1.2 / 3.75 (32%) 0.5 / 0.55 (91%)
30th Jul '23 Super Rizin 2 1 -1.0 -100% -1.0 / 1 (-100%)
29th Jul '23 UFC 291 7.5 1.8 23% 0.8 / 3.5 (21%) 1.0 / 3 (33%) 0.0 / 1 (0%)


Winning Events: 9 (45%)
Losing Events: 11 (55%)

Average Staked Per Event: 6.47 units
Most Staked On One Event: 12.80 units
Best Event: 5.67 units
Worst Event: -5.46 units
Average Event: -0.07 units

Max Win Streak: Events: 2, Units: 6.21
Max Losing Streak: Events: 2, Units: -7.09

Rafael Amador: Year on Year Profit
Year Bet Won ROI Straight
Won / Bet (ROI%)		 Prop
Won / Bet (ROI%)		 Parlay
Won / Bet (ROI%)		 Events
Won / Lost (%)		 Profit
Per Event
2024 24 -1.2 -5% -0.1 / 6 (-1%) -2.2 / 17 (-13%) 1 / 2 (33%) -0.39
2023 105.38 -0.3 -0% -7.2 / 31.25 (-23%) -1.1 / 46.38 (-2%) 8 / 9 (47%) -0.02

Rafael Amador: Yearly Straight Pick Stats
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Rafael Amador: Profit / Loss by Organization
Organization Bet Won ROI Straight Picks Props Parlays
UFC 128.38 -0.5 -0% -6.3 / 36.25 (-17%) 9.2 / 28.75 (32%) -3.4 / 63.38 (-5%)
Other 1 -1.0 -100% -1.0 / 1 (-100%)

Rafael Amador: Straight Pick Stats

Big favourite means >65% win chance according to bookies. Big underdog is <35% chance.

  Picks Correct % Correct Units Bet Units Profit Profit per Pick ROI
Big Favorites 11 (29%) 4 36 % 12.75 -6.55 -0.60 -51%
Slight Favorites 10 (26%) 7 70 % 10.50 3.75 0.38 36%
Slight Underdogs 12 (32%) 4 33 % 10.00 -0.51 -0.04 -5%
Big Underdogs 5 (13%) 0 0 % 4.00 -4.00 -0.80 -100%



Betting Stats By Card Position

  Picks Correct % Correct Units Bet Units Profit Profit per Pick ROI
Main Event 4 (11%) 2 50 % 8.00 -2.71 -0.68 -34%
Co-Main Event 5 (13%) 3 60 % 5.50 -0.60 -0.12 -11%
Position 3-5 13 (34%) 4 31 % 10.50 -3.31 -0.25 -32%
6+ (Undercard) 16 (42%) 6 38 % 13.25 -0.70 -0.04 -5%

Rafael Amador: Profit by Weight Class
  Picks Correct % Correct Units Bet Units Profit Profit per Pick ROI
Heavyweight 3 (8%) 0 % 2.50 -2.25 -0.75 -90%
Light Heavy 3 (8%) 2 67 % 3.00 1.38 0.46 46%
Middleweight 3 (8%) 1 33 % 3.50 0.46 0.15 13%
Welterweight 5 (13%) 2 40 % 4.00 0.88 0.18 22%
Lightweight 10 (26%) 1 10 % 9.25 -7.66 -0.77 -83%
Featherweight 4 (11%) 4 100 % 4.00 3.68 0.92 92%
Bantamweight 5 (13%) 2 40 % 5.50 -3.44 -0.69 -63%
               
Women's Fights 5 (13%) 3 60 % 5.50 -0.36 -0.07 -6%
Bantamweight 2 (5%) 1 50 % 1.50 -0.49 -0.25 -33%
Flyweight 1 (3%) 1 100 % 1.00 0.69 0.69 69%
Strawweight 2 (5%) 1 50 % 3.00 -0.56 -0.28 -19%

Props & Parlay Section Stats (Individual sections of this handicapper's parlays)

Straight picks within parlays

  Picks Correct % Correct
Big Favorites 68 (79%) 48 71 %
Slight Favorites 17 (20%) 13 76 %
Slight Underdogs 1 (1%) 1 100 %
Big Underdogs 0 (0%) 0 nan %
86 62 72 %

 

Props bets and props within parlays

  Picks Correct % Correct
>65% chance 25 (52%) 19 76 %
50-65% 17 (35%) 14 82 %
35-50% 5 (10%) 3 60 %
<35% chance 1 (2%) 0 0 %
48 36 75 %

Prop Bets and Props within Parlays: Bet Types
Prop Type Picks Correct % Correct Avg
Odds		 Longest
Odds		 Shortest
Odds		 1U Bet (ROI %)
Over (e.g. 1.5 / 2.5 rnds) 28 (58%) 20 71 % 1.58 3.50Pick was incorrect 1.22Pick was correct 4.0 (14%)
Under (e.g. 1.5 / 2.5 rnds) 1 (2%) 1 100 % 2.00 2.00Pick was correct 2.00Pick was correct 1.0 (100%)
Does not go to Decision 3 (6%) 3 100 % 1.40 1.43Pick was correct 1.35Pick was correct 1.2 (40%)
Others 16 (33%) 12 75 % 1.12 2.15Pick was correct 0.25Pick was correct 2.1 (13%)
48 36 75 % 1.39     8.4 (17%)

* 1U Bet (ROI %): Many of the picks will have been part of a parlay, however, as a rough guide to value / profitability, this figure supposes that the handicapper put a 1U bet on each of the picks individually, showing the profit / loss they would have made and the ROI %.

Tail Rafael Amador's bets
If you had tailed this handicapper's bets since they started logging their picks with us, it would have affected your betting bank balance as follows...

This is more accurate than simply X units total profit. Under that more basic system, 1 unit is equal to the same amount of theoretical dollars, whether it was the last event or 10 events ago. However, if a handicapper has 10 events profit in a row, their betting bank balance will be significantly larger for the 10th event and 1 unit will equal a LOT more than it did 10 events ago.

Date Event Bet Won ROI Fee 1 unit = Start End
29th Jul UFC 291 7.5 1.8 23% $10.00 $1,000.00 $1,017.50
30th Jul Super Rizin 2 1 -1.0 -100% $10.18 $1,017.50 $1,007.33
5th Aug UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Font 10.05 1.5 15% $10.07 $1,007.33 $1,022.34
12th Aug UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos Anjos 6.5 -0.1 -2% $10.22 $1,022.34 $1,021.31
19th Aug UFC 292 12.8 -0.5 -4% $10.21 $1,021.31 $1,016.07
26th Aug UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Jung 2.5 2.2 88% $10.16 $1,016.07 $1,038.54
2nd Sep UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Spivac 4 4.0 100% $10.39 $1,038.54 $1,080.03
9th Sep UFC 293 6.33 -3.9 -61% $10.80 $1,080.03 $1,038.01
16th Sep UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Shevchenko II 6.5 1.5 23% $10.38 $1,038.01 $1,053.26
23rd Sep UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gamrot 5 -1.6 -33% $10.53 $1,053.26 $1,036.14
7th Oct UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Green 7 -5.5 -78% $10.36 $1,036.14 $979.57
21st Oct UFC 294 8.5 0.9 11% $9.80 $979.57 $988.71
11th Nov UFC 295 6 -2.4 -39% $9.89 $988.71 $965.38
18th Nov UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig 4.2 3.5 84% $9.65 $965.38 $999.27
2nd Dec UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan 7 -5.4 -77% $9.99 $999.27 $945.19
9th Dec UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez 2.5 -0.6 -24% $9.45 $945.19 $939.54
16th Dec UFC 296 8 5.3 66% $9.40 $939.54 $989.32
20th Jan UFC 297 9 -1.8 -20% $9.89 $989.32 $971.11
10th Feb UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer 5 -5.0 -100% $9.71 $971.11 $922.55
13th Apr UFC 300 10 5.7 57% $9.23 $922.55 $974.88


ROI % from starting bank balance: -2.51% (including fees)
*Note - we don't store historical fee amounts, so we assume the fees are the same as the handicapper charges now.

Rafael Amador: Last 20 Wins / Losses (Straight Picks)
Last 20 Wins
  Date Straight Pick Opponent Odds Bet Result    
1. Apr '24 Jiri Prochazka Aleksandar Rakic 1.96 1 TKO, R2 (3:17) MMA Bookmaker
2. Jan '24 Dricus Du Plessis Sean Strickland 1.98 2 Split Decision (5 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
3. Dec '23 Jalin Turner Bobby Green 1.59 1 TKO, R1 (2:49) MMA Bookmaker
4. Nov '23 Diego Lopes Pat Sabatini 2.04 1 TKO, R1 (1:30) MMA Bookmaker
5. Sep '23 Jack Della Maddalena Kevin Holland 1.75 0.5 Split Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
6. Sep '23 Gabriel Miranda Shane Young 2.44 1 Sub, R1 (0:59) MMA Bookmaker
7. Sep '23 Nora Cornolle Joselyne Edwards 2.02 0.5 U Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
8. Aug '23 Seung Woo Choi Jarno Errens 1.45 1 U Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
9. Aug '23 Mario Bautista DaMon Blackshear 1.45 0.5 U Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
10. Aug '23 Luana Santos Juliana Miller 1.69 1 TKO, R1 (3:41) MMA Bookmaker
11. Aug '23 Khalil Rountree Chris Daukaus 1.61 1.5 TKO, R1 (2:40) MMA Bookmaker
12. Aug '23 Cory Sandhagen Rob Font 1.33 1 U Decision (5 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
13. Aug '23 Diego Lopes Gavin Tucker 1.75 1 Sub, R1 (1:38) MMA Bookmaker
14. Aug '23 Tatiana Suarez Jessica Andrade 1.22 2 Sub, R2 (1:31) MMA Bookmaker
15. Jul '23 Gabriel Bonfim Trevin Giles 2.00 2 Sub, R1 (1:13) MMA Bookmaker



Last 20 Losses

  Date Straight Pick Opponent Odds Bet Result Hedge?    
1. Apr '24 Charles Oliveira Arman Tsarukyan 2.86 1 Split Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
2. Apr '24 Jim Miller Bobby Green 2.56 1 U Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
3. Jan '24 Mayra Bueno Silva Raquel Pennington 1.61 1 U Decision (5 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
4. Dec '23 Clay Guida Joaquim Silva 27.00 0.5 U Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
5. Dec '23 Kelvin Gastelum Sean Brady 2.04 0.5 Sub, R3 (1:43) No MMA Bookmaker
6. Nov '23 Sergey Pavlovich Tom Aspinall 1.96 1 TKO, R1 (1:9) No MMA Bookmaker
7. Nov '23 Mark O. Madsen Jared Gordon 2.78 1 TKO, R1 (4:42) No MMA Bookmaker
8. Oct '23 Bruno Silva Sharabutdin Magomedov 3.45 1 U Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
9. Oct '23 Grant Dawson Bobby Green 1.28 2 TKO, R1 (0:33) No MMA Bookmaker
10. Sep '23 Kiefer Crosbie Kevin Jousset 2.44 0.5 Sub, R1 (4:49) No MMA Bookmaker
11. Sep '23 Austen Lane Justin Tafa 2.94 1 TKO, R1 (1:22) No MMA Bookmaker
12. Aug '23 Austin Hubbard Kurt Holobaugh 1.61 0.5 Sub, R2 (2:39) No MMA Bookmaker
13. Aug '23 Aljamain Sterling Sean O'Malley 1.42 3 TKO, R2 (0:51) No MMA Bookmaker
14. Aug '23 Cody Gibson Brad Katona 2.49 0.5 U Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
15. Aug '23 Chris Weidman Brad Tavares 3.33 0.5 U Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
16. Aug '23 Polyana Viana Iasmin Lucindo 2.70 1 Sub, R2 (3:42) No MMA Bookmaker
17. Aug '23 Raoni Barcelos Kyler Phillips 2.70 0.5 U Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
18. Aug '23 Aleksa Camur Tanner Boser 2.33 0.5 U Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
19. Aug '23 Ignacio Bahamondes Ludovit Klein 1.49 0.75 U Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
20. Jul '23 Patricio Freire Chihiro Suzuki 1.00 1 TKO, R1 (2:32) No MMA Bookmaker

* Hedge indicates that this handicapper also had a WINNING bet on the opponent. For example, they may have bet A to win straight up but with a hedge on the other fighter winning by decision.

Rafael Amador: Progress Chart
Chart

 
 
 
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