MMA Handicapper Directory
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MMA Handicapper Stats: TheCasual Expert

TheCasual Expert (TheCasualExpert)

MMA Betting Stats Summary

Overall Stats		Straight Fight Picks		Props		Parlays
Right	12 (14%)	Right	2 (13%)	Right	7 (16%)	Right	3 (13%)
Wrong	73 (86%)	Wrong	14 (88%)	Wrong	38 (84%)	Wrong	21 (88%)
Avg Odds	3.26	Avg Odds	2.13	Avg Odds	3.56	Avg Odds	4.04
Units Bet	56.0	Units Bet	14.3	Units Bet	22.7	Units Bet	19.1
Avg Bet	0.66	Avg Bet	0.89	Avg Bet	0.50	Avg Bet	0.79
Units Profit	-27.37	Units Profit	-11.53	Units Profit	-3.20	Units Profit	-12.64
ROI %	-49%	ROI %	-81%	ROI %	-14%	ROI %	-66%

TheCasual Expert: Event by Event Predictions

The straight picks, parlays and props sections display Winnings / Bets (ROI%)

Date	Event	Bet	Won	ROI	Straight Picks	Props	Parlays
6th May '23	UFC 288	12.05	-10.7	-89%	-4.3 / 4.25 (-100%)	-2.7 / 4 (-66%)	-3.8 / 3.8 (-100%)
22nd Apr '23	Bellator 295	3.1	-3.1	-100%		-1.6 / 1.6 (-100%)	-1.5 / 1.5 (-100%)
22nd Apr '23	UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. Blaydes	6.5	-5.5	-85%	-1.0 / 1 (-100%)	-2.3 / 3.25 (-71%)	-2.3 / 2.25 (-100%)
15th Apr '23	UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen	16.1	-6.3	-39%	-2.8 / 4.5 (-61%)	-3.5 / 6.05 (-57%)	-0.1 / 5.55 (-1%)
14th Apr '23	PFL 3: 2023	3.5	-1.6	-46%	-1.0 / 2 (-51%)		-0.6 / 1.5 (-39%)
8th Apr '23	UFC 287	14.7	-0.1	-1%	-2.5 / 2.5 (-100%)	6.8 / 7.75 (88%)	-4.5 / 4.45 (-100%)

Winning Events: 0 (0%)
Losing Events: 6 (100%)

Average Staked Per Event: 9.33 units
Most Staked On One Event: 16.10 units
Best Event: 0.00 units
Worst Event: -10.70 units
Average Event: -4.56 units

Max Win Streak: Events: , Units: 0.00
Max Losing Streak: Events: 6, Units: -27.37

TheCasual Expert: Year on Year Profit

Year	Bet	Won	ROI	Straight Won / Bet (ROI%)	Prop Won / Bet (ROI%)	Parlay Won / Bet (ROI%)	Events Won / Lost (%)	Profit Per Event
2023	55.95	-27.4	-49%	-11.5 / 14.25 (-81%)		-12.6 / 19.05 (-66%)	/ 6 (0%)	-4.56

TheCasual Expert: Yearly Straight Pick Stats

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TheCasual Expert: Profit / Loss by Organization

Organization	Bet	Won	ROI	Straight Picks	Props	Parlays
UFC	49.35	-22.7	-46%	-10.5 / 12.25 (-86%)	-1.6 / 21.05 (-8%)	-10.6 / 16.05 (-66%)
Bellator	3.1	-3.1	-100%		-1.6 / 1.6 (-100%)	-1.5 / 1.5 (-100%)
PFL	3.5	-1.6	-46%	-1.0 / 2 (-51%)		-0.6 / 1.5 (-39%)

TheCasual Expert: Straight Pick Stats

Big favourite means >65% win chance according to bookies. Big underdog is <35% chance.

	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Units Bet	Units Profit	Profit per Pick	ROI
Big Favorites	1 (6%)	0	0 %	1.00	-1.00	-1.00	-100%
Slight Favorites	8 (50%)	2	25 %	7.75	-5.03	-0.63	-65%
Slight Underdogs	4 (25%)	0	0 %	4.00	-4.00	-1.00	-100%
Big Underdogs	3 (19%)	0	0 %	1.50	-1.50	-0.50	-100%

Betting Stats By Card Position

	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Units Bet	Units Profit	Profit per Pick	ROI
Main Event	2 (13%)	0	0 %	3.00	-3.00	-1.50	-100%
Co-Main Event	3 (19%)	0	0 %	1.75	-1.75	-0.58	-100%
Position 3-5	2 (13%)	2	100 %	1.50	1.22	0.61	82%
6+ (Undercard)	9 (56%)	0	0 %	8.00	-8.00	-0.89	-100%

TheCasual Expert: Profit by Weight Class

	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Units Bet	Units Profit	Profit per Pick	ROI
Heavyweight	3 (19%)	1	33 %	4.00	-2.25	-0.75	-56%
Middleweight	1 (6%)		0 %	0.50	-0.50	-0.50	-100%
Welterweight	2 (13%)		0 %	0.75	-0.75	-0.38	-100%
Lightweight	5 (31%)	1	20 %	3.00	-2.02	-0.40	-67%
Featherweight	3 (19%)		0 %	3.00	-3.00	-1.00	-100%
Bantamweight	1 (6%)		0 %	2.00	-2.00	-2.00	-100%

Women's Fights	1 (6%)		0 %	1.00	-1.00	-1.00	-100%
Strawweight	1 (6%)		0 %	1.00	-1.00	-1.00	-100%

Props & Parlay Section Stats (Individual sections of this handicapper's parlays)

Straight picks within parlays

	Picks	Correct	% Correct
Big Favorites	29 (52%)	19	66 %
Slight Favorites	24 (43%)	5	21 %
Slight Underdogs	3 (5%)	1	33 %
Big Underdogs	0 (0%)	0	nan %
	56	25	45 %

Props bets and props within parlays

	Picks	Correct	% Correct
>65% chance	13 (17%)	11	85 %
50-65%	12 (16%)	7	58 %
35-50%	17 (23%)	3	18 %
<35% chance	33 (44%)	2	6 %
	75	23	31 %

Prop Bets and Props within Parlays: Bet Types

Prop Type	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Avg Odds	Longest Odds	Shortest Odds	1U Bet (ROI %)
Over (e.g. 1.5 / 2.5 rnds)	1 (1%)	0	0 %	1.77	1.77	1.77	-1.0 (-100%)
Under (e.g. 1.5 / 2.5 rnds)	3 (4%)	3	100 %	1.67	2.75	1.17	2.6 (88%)
Fight Starts Round X	13 (17%)	11	85 %	1.50	2.94	1.17	3.8 (29%)
Fight Doesn't Start Round X	2 (3%)	1	50 %	1.96	8.25	1.11	-0.9 (-44%)
X Wins by KO	14 (19%)	0	0 %	3.23	13.00	1.85	-14.0 (-100%)
X Wins by Sub	4 (5%)	0	0 %	4.23	11.00	2.25	-4.0 (-100%)
X Wins by Decision	6 (8%)	0	0 %	3.88	23.00	2.25	-6.0 (-100%)
X Does NOT Win by Decision	1 (1%)	1	100 %	50.99	50.99	50.99	50.0 (4,999%)
X Wins in Round X	3 (4%)	0	0 %	7.83	9.50	6.00	-3.0 (-100%)
Others	28 (37%)	7	25 %	2.55	16.00	1.36	-12.3 (-44%)
	75	23	31 %	2.48			15.3 (20%)

* 1U Bet (ROI %): Many of the picks will have been part of a parlay, however, as a rough guide to value / profitability, this figure supposes that the handicapper put a 1U bet on each of the picks individually, showing the profit / loss they would have made and the ROI %.

Tail TheCasual Expert's bets

If you had tailed this handicapper's bets since they started logging their picks with us, it would have affected your betting bank balance as follows...

This is more accurate than simply X units total profit. Under that more basic system, 1 unit is equal to the same amount of theoretical dollars, whether it was the last event or 10 events ago. However, if a handicapper has 10 events profit in a row, their betting bank balance will be significantly larger for the 10th event and 1 unit will equal a LOT more than it did 10 events ago.

Date	Event	Bet	Won	ROI	Fee	1 unit =	Start	End
8th Apr	UFC 287	14.7	-0.1	-1%		$10.00	$1,000.00	$998.69
14th Apr	PFL 3: 2023	3.5	-1.6	-46%		$9.99	$998.69	$982.56
15th Apr	UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen	16.1	-6.3	-39%		$9.83	$982.56	$920.91
22nd Apr	UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. Blaydes	6.5	-5.5	-85%		$9.21	$920.91	$869.85
22nd Apr	Bellator 295	3.1	-3.1	-100%		$8.70	$869.85	$842.88
6th May	UFC 288	12.05	-10.7	-89%		$8.43	$842.88	$752.69

ROI % from starting bank balance: -24.73% (including fees)
*Note - we don't store historical fee amounts, so we assume the fees are the same as the handicapper charges now.

TheCasual Expert: Last 20 Wins / Losses (Straight Picks)

Last 20 Wins

	Date	Straight Pick	Opponent	Odds	Bet	Result
1.	Apr '23	Raush Manfio	Alex Martinez	1.95	0.5	U Decision (3 rounds)
2.	Apr '23	Ion Cutelaba	Tanner Boser	1.75	1	TKO, R1 (2:5)

Last 20 Losses

	Date	Straight Pick	Opponent	Odds	Bet	Result	Hedge?
1.	May '23	Gilbert Burns	Belal Muhammad	1.74	0.25	U Decision (5 rounds)	No
2.	May '23	Braxton Smith	Parker Porter	2.45	2	TKO, R1 (2:10)	No
3.	Apr '23	Junior Tafa	Mohammed Usman	1.87	1	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
4.	Apr '23	Billy Quarantillo	Edson Barboza	1.52	1	TKO, R1 (2:37)	No
5.	May '23	Henry Cejudo	Aljamain Sterling	1.90	2	Split Decision (5 rounds)	No
6.	Apr '23	Lando Vannata	Daniel Zellhuber	2.07	0.5	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
7.	Apr '23	Stevie Ray	Natan Schulte	4.00	0.5	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
8.	Apr '23	Shane Burgos	Olivier Aubin-Mercier	1.87	1	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
9.	Apr '23	Arnold Allen	Max Holloway	2.53	1	U Decision (5 rounds)	No
10.	Apr '23	Piera Rodriguez	Gillian Robertson	1.90	1	Sub, R2 (4:21)	No
11.	Apr '23	Trey Ogden	Ignacio Bahamondes	5.00	0.5	U Decision (3 rounds)	Yes
12.	Apr '23	Yilan Sha	Steve Garcia	1.55	1	TKO, R2 (0:36)	No
13.	Apr '23	Chris Curtis	Kelvin Gastelum	2.10	0.5	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
14.	Apr '23	Jorge Masvidal	Gilbert Burns	4.50	0.5	U Decision (3 rounds)	No

* Hedge indicates that this handicapper also had a WINNING bet on the opponent. For example, they may have bet A to win straight up but with a hedge on the other fighter winning by decision.

TheCasual Expert: Progress Chart

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