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MMA Handicapper Stats: Leo Hernandez

Leo Hernandez (NissangtrMMA)

MMA Betting Stats Summary

Overall Stats		Straight Fight Picks		Props		Parlays
Right	44 (49%)	Right	30 (64%)	Right	0 (nan%)	Right	14 (33%)
Wrong	45 (51%)	Wrong	17 (36%)	Wrong	0 (nan%)	Wrong	28 (67%)
Avg Odds	2.24	Avg Odds	1.63	Avg Odds	nan	Avg Odds	3.86
Units Bet	289.5	Units Bet	159.3	Units Bet	0.0	Units Bet	130.2
Avg Bet	3.25	Avg Bet	3.39	Avg Bet	nan	Avg Bet	3.10
Units Profit	10.53	Units Profit	-9.85	Units Profit	0.00	Units Profit	20.38
ROI %	4%	ROI %	-6%	ROI %	nan%	ROI %	16%

Leo Hernandez: Event by Event Predictions

The straight picks, parlays and props sections display Winnings / Bets (ROI%)

Date	Event	Bet	Won	ROI	Straight Picks	Props	Parlays
20th Jan '24	UFC 297	9.3	-8.2	-88%	-2.2 / 3.3 (-67%)		-6.0 / 6 (-100%)
13th Jan '24	UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker	3.3	3.0	91%			3.0 / 3.3 (91%)
24th Jun '23	UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Topuria	10	-10.0	-100%			-10.0 / 10 (-100%)
3rd Dec '22	UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland	11	-11.0	-100%			-11.0 / 11 (-100%)
19th Nov '22	UFC Fight Night: Nzechukwu vs. Cutelaba	11	10.6	96%			10.6 / 11 (96%)
12th Nov '22	UFC 281	77	-22.4	-29%	-11.4 / 66 (-17%)		-11.0 / 11 (-100%)
13th Aug '22	UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Cruz	15	-15.0	-100%			-15.0 / 15 (-100%)
9th Aug '22	DWCS 2022: Week 3	5	4.1	83%			4.1 / 5 (83%)
6th Aug '22	UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Hill	5	-5.0	-100%			-5.0 / 5 (-100%)
30th Jul '22	UFC 277	10	15.4	154%	6.9 / 5 (138%)		8.5 / 5 (170%)
23rd Jul '22	UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall	5	9.3	186%			9.3 / 5 (186%)
9th Jul '22	UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Fiziev	2	-2.0	-100%			-2.0 / 2 (-100%)
18th Jun '22	UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Emmett	9.6	-9.6	-100%	-4.6 / 4.6 (-100%)		-5.0 / 5 (-100%)
14th May '22	UFC Fight Night: Błachowicz vs. Rakić	2	-2.0	-100%			-2.0 / 2 (-100%)
30th Apr '22	UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera	10	-10.0	-100%	-10.0 / 10 (-100%)
23rd Apr '22	UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andrade	4.25	4.4	104%			4.4 / 4.25 (104%)
16th Apr '22	UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Muhammad II	1	1.0	104%			1.0 / 1 (104%)
9th Apr '22	UFC 273	6.9	-4.0	-58%	1.0 / 1.9 (53%)		-5.0 / 5 (-100%)
26th Mar '22	UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Daukaus	4.95	-5.0	-100%	-2.5 / 2.45 (-100%)		-2.5 / 2.5 (-100%)
19th Mar '22	UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Aspinall	4.4	0.0	0%	2.0 / 2.4 (83%)		-2.0 / 2 (-100%)
12th Mar '22	UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ankalaev	11.93	30.2	253%	2.5 / 6.93 (36%)		27.7 / 5 (554%)
5th Mar '22	UFC 272	23.09	0.3	1%	2.7 / 20.71 (13%)		-2.4 / 2.38 (-100%)
26th Feb '22	UFC Fight Night: Green vs. Makhachev	6.15	15.5	251%	3.2 / 5.15 (62%)		12.3 / 1 (1,228%)
19th Feb '22	UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Hill	15.68	22.0	140%	2.2 / 11.5 (19%)		19.8 / 4.18 (473%)
12th Feb '22	UFC 271	8.52	0.5	6%	-2.5 / 6.37 (-39%)		3.0 / 2.15 (138%)
5th Feb '22	UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Strickland	4.5	1.2	28%	2.0 / 3.75 (53%)		-0.8 / 0.75 (-100%)
29th Jan '22	Bellator 273	0.6	-0.6	-100%			-0.6 / 0.6 (-100%)
22nd Jan '22	UFC 270	7.44	-0.3	-5%	-0.1 / 7.19 (-1%)		-0.3 / 0.25 (-100%)
15th Jan '22	UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Chikadze	4.86	-1.9	-39%	1.0 / 2 (49%)		-2.9 / 2.86 (-100%)

Winning Events: 14 (48%)
Losing Events: 15 (52%)

Average Staked Per Event: 9.98 units
Most Staked On One Event: 77.00 units
Best Event: 30.20 units
Worst Event: -22.40 units
Average Event: 0.36 units

Max Win Streak: Events: 6, Units: 69.65
Max Losing Streak: Events: 4, Units: -37.40

Leo Hernandez: Year on Year Profit

Year	Bet	Won	ROI	Straight Won / Bet (ROI%)	Prop Won / Bet (ROI%)	Parlay Won / Bet (ROI%)	Events Won / Lost (%)	Profit Per Event
2024	12.6	-5.2	-41%	-2.2 / 3.3 (-67%)		-3.0 / 9.3 (-32%)	1 / 1 (50%)	-2.60
2023	10	-10.0	-100%			-10.0 / 10 (-100%)	/ 1 (0%)	-10.00
2022	266.87	25.7	10%	-7.6 / 155.95 (-5%)		33.4 / 110.92 (30%)	13 / 13 (50%)	0.99

Leo Hernandez: Yearly Straight Pick Stats

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Leo Hernandez: Profit / Loss by Organization

Organization	Bet	Won	ROI	Straight Picks	Props	Parlays
UFC	283.87	7.0	2%	-9.8 / 159.25 (-6%)		16.8 / 124.62 (14%)
Bellator	0.6	-0.6	-100%			-0.6 / 0.6 (-100%)
Other	5	4.1	83%			4.1 / 5 (83%)

Leo Hernandez: Straight Pick Stats

Big favourite means >65% win chance according to bookies. Big underdog is <35% chance.

	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Units Bet	Units Profit	Profit per Pick	ROI
Big Favorites	22 (47%)	17	77 %	73.31	-0.52	-0.02	-1%
Slight Favorites	16 (34%)	9	56 %	64.44	-5.47	-0.34	-8%
Slight Underdogs	9 (19%)	4	44 %	21.50	-3.86	-0.43	-18%
Big Underdogs	0 (0%)	0	nan %	0.00	0.00	nan	nan%

Betting Stats By Card Position

	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Units Bet	Units Profit	Profit per Pick	ROI
Main Event	7 (15%)	5	71 %	20.17	-0.90	-0.13	-4%
Co-Main Event	3 (6%)	3	100 %	7.30	3.00	1.00	41%
Position 3-5	14 (30%)	8	57 %	49.65	4.85	0.35	10%
6+ (Undercard)	23 (49%)	14	61 %	82.13	-16.80	-0.73	-20%

Leo Hernandez: Profit by Weight Class

	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Units Bet	Units Profit	Profit per Pick	ROI
Heavyweight	3 (6%)	2	67 %	6.05	2.00	0.67	33%
Light Heavy	4 (9%)	4	100 %	17.42	11.80	2.95	68%
Middleweight	6 (13%)	5	83 %	13.32	2.87	0.48	22%
Welterweight	8 (17%)	7	88 %	19.75	11.35	1.42	57%
Lightweight	8 (17%)	3	38 %	48.79	-11.22	-1.40	-23%
Featherweight	5 (11%)	2	40 %	18.40	-13.10	-2.62	-71%
Bantamweight	5 (11%)	3	60 %	10.52	-0.85	-0.17	-8%
Flyweight	2 (4%)	1	50 %	4.05	-1.30	-0.65	-32%

Women's Fights	6 (13%)	3	50 %	20.95	-11.40	-1.90	-54%
Bantamweight	2 (4%)	1	50 %	4.20	-0.80	-0.40	-19%
Flyweight	1 (2%)	1	100 %	1.00	1.50	1.50	150%
Strawweight	3 (6%)	1	33 %	15.75	-12.10	-4.03	-77%

Props & Parlay Section Stats (Individual sections of this handicapper's parlays)

Straight picks within parlays

	Picks	Correct	% Correct
Big Favorites	146 (73%)	119	82 %
Slight Favorites	43 (22%)	25	58 %
Slight Underdogs	11 (6%)	6	55 %
Big Underdogs	0 (0%)	0	nan %
	200	150	75 %

Props bets and props within parlays

	Picks	Correct	% Correct
>65% chance	0 (0%)	0	nan %
50-65%	2 (100%)	0	0 %
35-50%	0 (0%)	0	nan %
<35% chance	0 (0%)	0	nan %
	2	0	0 %

Prop Bets and Props within Parlays: Bet Types

Prop Type	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Avg Odds	Longest Odds	Shortest Odds	1U Bet (ROI %)
Over (e.g. 1.5 / 2.5 rnds)	2 (100%)	0	0 %	1.75	1.83	1.67	-2.0 (-100%)
	2	0	0 %	1.75			-2.0 (-100%)

* 1U Bet (ROI %): Many of the picks will have been part of a parlay, however, as a rough guide to value / profitability, this figure supposes that the handicapper put a 1U bet on each of the picks individually, showing the profit / loss they would have made and the ROI %.

Tail Leo Hernandez's bets

If you had tailed this handicapper's bets since they started logging their picks with us, it would have affected your betting bank balance as follows...

This is more accurate than simply X units total profit. Under that more basic system, 1 unit is equal to the same amount of theoretical dollars, whether it was the last event or 10 events ago. However, if a handicapper has 10 events profit in a row, their betting bank balance will be significantly larger for the 10th event and 1 unit will equal a LOT more than it did 10 events ago.

Date	Event	Bet	Won	ROI	Fee	1 unit =	Start	End
15th Jan	UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Chikadze	4.86	-1.9	-39%		$10.00	$1,000.00	$981.16
22nd Jan	UFC 270	7.44	-0.3	-5%		$9.81	$981.16	$977.72
29th Jan	Bellator 273	0.6	-0.6	-100%		$9.78	$977.72	$971.86
5th Feb	UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Strickland	4.5	1.2	28%		$9.72	$971.86	$984.00
12th Feb	UFC 271	8.52	0.5	6%		$9.84	$984.00	$988.66
19th Feb	UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Hill	15.68	22.0	140%		$9.89	$988.66	$1,205.98
26th Feb	UFC Fight Night: Green vs. Makhachev	6.15	15.5	251%		$12.06	$1,205.98	$1,392.35
5th Mar	UFC 272	23.09	0.3	1%		$13.92	$1,392.35	$1,396.53
12th Mar	UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ankalaev	11.93	30.2	253%		$13.97	$1,396.53	$1,818.21
19th Mar	UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Aspinall	4.4	0.0	0%		$18.18	$1,818.21	$1,818.21
26th Mar	UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Daukaus	4.95	-5.0	-100%		$18.18	$1,818.21	$1,728.21
9th Apr	UFC 273	6.9	-4.0	-58%		$17.28	$1,728.21	$1,659.08
16th Apr	UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Muhammad II	1	1.0	104%		$16.59	$1,659.08	$1,676.28
23rd Apr	UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andrade	4.25	4.4	104%		$16.76	$1,676.28	$1,750.38
30th Apr	UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera	10	-10.0	-100%		$17.50	$1,750.38	$1,575.34
14th May	UFC Fight Night: Błachowicz vs. Rakić	2	-2.0	-100%		$15.75	$1,575.34	$1,543.84
18th Jun	UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Emmett	9.6	-9.6	-100%		$15.44	$1,543.84	$1,395.63
9th Jul	UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Fiziev	2	-2.0	-100%		$13.96	$1,395.63	$1,367.72
23rd Jul	UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall	5	9.3	186%		$13.68	$1,367.72	$1,495.18
30th Jul	UFC 277	10	15.4	154%		$14.95	$1,495.18	$1,725.47
6th Aug	UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Hill	5	-5.0	-100%		$17.25	$1,725.47	$1,639.19
9th Aug	DWCS 2022: Week 3	5	4.1	83%		$16.39	$1,639.19	$1,706.98
13th Aug	UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Cruz	15	-15.0	-100%		$17.07	$1,706.98	$1,450.93
12th Nov	UFC 281	77	-22.4	-29%		$14.51	$1,450.93	$1,125.94
19th Nov	UFC Fight Night: Nzechukwu vs. Cutelaba	11	10.6	96%		$11.26	$1,125.94	$1,244.78
3rd Dec	UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland	11	-11.0	-100%		$12.45	$1,244.78	$1,107.86
24th Jun	UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Topuria	10	-10.0	-100%		$11.08	$1,107.86	$997.07
13th Jan	UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker	3.3	3.0	91%		$9.97	$997.07	$1,027.14
20th Jan	UFC 297	9.3	-8.2	-88%		$10.27	$1,027.14	$942.65

ROI % from starting bank balance: -5.73% (including fees)
*Note - we don't store historical fee amounts, so we assume the fees are the same as the handicapper charges now.

Leo Hernandez: Last 20 Wins / Losses (Straight Picks)

Last 20 Wins

	Date	Straight Pick	Opponent	Odds	Bet	Result
1.	Jan '24	Sam Patterson	Yohan Lainesse	2.15	0.5	Sub, R1 (2:3)
2.	Nov '22	Carlos Ulberg	Nick Negumereanu	1.80	11	TKO, R1 (3:44)
3.	Nov '22	Daniel Hooker	Claudio Puelles	1.71	11	TKO, R2 (4:6)
4.	Nov '22	Dustin Poirier	Michael Chandler	1.45	11	Sub, R3 (2:0)
5.	Jul '22	Alex Morono	Matt Semelsberger	2.38	5	U Decision (3 rounds)
6.	Apr '22	Anthony Hernandez	Josh Fremd	1.53	1.9	U Decision (3 rounds)
7.	Mar '22	Tom Aspinall	Alexander Volkov	1.83	2.4	Sub, R1 (3:45)
8.	Mar '22	Yadong Song	Marlon Moraes	1.39	2.58	TKO, R1 (2:6)
9.	Mar '22	Javid Basharat	Trevin Jones	1.59	1.7	U Decision (3 rounds)
10.	Mar '22	Azamat Murzakanov	Tafon Nchukwi	1.47	2.15	TKO, R3 (0:44)
11.	Mar '22	Marina Alcalde Rodriguez	Yan Xiaonan	1.38	2.65	Split Decision (3 rounds)
12.	Mar '22	Rafael dos Anjos	Renato Moicano	1.56	1.77	U Decision (5 rounds)
13.	Mar '22	Bryce Mitchell	Edson Barboza	1.65	1.55	U Decision (3 rounds)
14.	Mar '22	Colby Covington	Jorge Masvidal	1.30	3.35	U Decision (5 rounds)
15.	Mar '22	Kevin Holland	Alex Oliveira	1.27	3.65	TKO, R2 (0:38)
16.	Mar '22	Maryna Moroz	Mariya Agapova	2.50	1	Sub, R2 (3:27)
17.	Mar '22	Dustin Jacoby	Michal Oleksiejczuk	1.52	1.92	U Decision (3 rounds)
18.	Feb '22	Josiane Nunes	Ramona Pascual	1.42	2.4	U Decision (3 rounds)
19.	Feb '22	Armen Petrosyan	Gregory Rodrigues	2.17	1	Split Decision (3 rounds)
20.	Feb '22	Carlos Hernandez	Victor Altamirano	1.57	1.75	Split Decision (3 rounds)

Last 20 Losses

	Date	Straight Pick	Opponent	Odds	Bet	Result	Hedge?
1.	Jan '24	Arnold Allen	Movsar Evloev	2.60	0.5	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
2.	Jan '24	Sean Strickland	Dricus Du Plessis	1.87	2.3	Split Decision (5 rounds)	No
3.	Nov '22	Silvana Gomez Juarez	Karolina Kowalkiewicz	1.93	11	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
4.	Nov '22	Ottman Azaitar	Matt Frevola	1.65	11	TKO, R1 (2:30)	No
5.	Nov '22	Brad Riddell	Renato Moicano	2.03	11	Sub, R1 (3:20)	No
6.	Jun '22	Calvin Kattar	Josh Emmett	1.43	4.6	Split Decision (5 rounds)	No
7.	Apr '22	Andre Fili	Joanderson Brito	1.40	10	TKO, R1 (0:41)	No
8.	Mar '22	Danaa Batgerel	Chris Gutierrez	1.74	1.35	TKO, R2 (2:34)	No
9.	Mar '22	Matt Brown	Bryan Barberena	1.91	1.1	Split Decision (3 rounds)	No
10.	Mar '22	Terrance McKinney	Drew Dober	2.75	0.5	TKO, R1 (3:17)	No
11.	Mar '22	Tagir Ulanbekov	Tim Elliott	1.43	2.3	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
12.	Mar '22	Greg Hardy	Sergey Spivak	2.58	1	TKO, R1 (2:16)	No
13.	Mar '22	Devonte Smith	Ludovit Klein	1.66	1.52	Split Decision (3 rounds)	No
14.	Feb '22	Jessica-Rose Clark	Stephanie Egger	1.56	1.8	Sub, R1 (3:44)	No
15.	Feb '22	Alexander Hernandez	Renato Moicano	2.25	1	Sub, R2 (1:23)	No
16.	Feb '22	Sergey Morozov	Douglas Silva de Andrade	1.49	2.5	Sub, R2 (3:34)	No
17.	Jan '22	Kay Hansen	Jasmine Jasudavicius	1.48	2.1	U Decision (3 rounds)	No

* Hedge indicates that this handicapper also had a WINNING bet on the opponent. For example, they may have bet A to win straight up but with a hedge on the other fighter winning by decision.

Leo Hernandez: Progress Chart

Chart

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