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MMA Handicapper Stats: Hobie Holdem

Hobie Holdem (HobieTheGreat)

MMA Betting Stats Summary

Overall Stats		Straight Fight Picks		Props		Parlays
Right	60 (62%)	Right	55 (74%)	Right	4 (29%)	Right	1 (11%)
Wrong	37 (38%)	Wrong	19 (26%)	Wrong	10 (71%)	Wrong	8 (89%)
Avg Odds	1.67	Avg Odds	1.50	Avg Odds	2.27	Avg Odds	3.61
Units Bet	368.4	Units Bet	288.5	Units Bet	37.9	Units Bet	42.0
Avg Bet	3.80	Avg Bet	3.90	Avg Bet	2.71	Avg Bet	4.67
Units Profit	-24.10	Units Profit	17.76	Units Profit	-4.68	Units Profit	-37.17
ROI %	-7%	ROI %	6%	ROI %	-12%	ROI %	-89%

Hobie Holdem: Event by Event Predictions

The straight picks, parlays and props sections display Winnings / Bets (ROI%)

Date	Event	Bet	Won	ROI	Straight Picks	Props	Parlays
22nd Jan '22	UFC 270	43.2	-21.0	-49%	-8.8 / 31 (-28%)	-0.2 / 0.2 (-100%)	-12.0 / 12 (-100%)
18th Dec '21	UFC FN	20	-20.0	-100%	-13.0 / 13 (-100%)	-6.0 / 6 (-100%)	-1.0 / 1 (-100%)
11th Dec '21	UFC 269	62	-24.0	-39%	-6.5 / 29 (-22%)	2.5 / 13 (19%)	-20.0 / 20 (-100%)
13th Nov '21	UFC FN	9.5	-7.4	-77%	-5.4 / 7.5 (-71%)		-2.0 / 2 (-100%)
6th Nov '21	UFC 268	46.7	4.9	11%	8.9 / 25 (36%)	1.0 / 16.7 (6%)	-5.0 / 5 (-100%)
30th Oct '21	UFC 267	53	12.7	24%	11.9 / 49 (24%)	-2.0 / 2 (-100%)	2.8 / 2 (141%)
23rd Oct '21	UFC FN	7	-0.0	-1%	-0.0 / 7 (-1%)
16th Oct '21	Bellator 268	29	7.1	24%	7.1 / 29 (24%)
16th Oct '21	UFC FN	20	-4.3	-21%	-4.3 / 20 (-21%)
9th Oct '21	UFC FN	10	0.9	9%	0.9 / 10 (9%)
2nd Oct '21	UFC FN	18	7.3	40%	7.3 / 18 (40%)
25th Sep '21	UFC 266	50	19.6	39%	19.6 / 50 (39%)

Winning Events: 6 (50%)
Losing Events: 6 (50%)

Average Staked Per Event: 30.70 units
Most Staked On One Event: 62.00 units
Best Event: 19.65 units
Worst Event: -23.98 units
Average Event: -2.01 units

Max Win Streak: Events: 3, Units: 27.83
Max Losing Streak: Events: 4, Units: -72.35

Hobie Holdem: Year on Year Profit

Year	Bet	Won	ROI	Straight Won / Bet (ROI%)	Prop Won / Bet (ROI%)	Parlay Won / Bet (ROI%)	Events Won / Lost (%)	Profit Per Event
2022	43.2	-21.0	-49%	-8.8 / 31 (-28%)		-12.0 / 12 (-100%)	/ 1 (0%)	-21.01
2021	325.2	-3.1	-1%	26.6 / 257.5 (10%)		-25.2 / 30 (-84%)	6 / 5 (55%)	-0.28

Hobie Holdem: Yearly Straight Pick Stats

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Hobie Holdem: Profit / Loss by Organization

Organization	Bet	Won	ROI	Straight Picks	Props	Parlays
UFC	339.4	-31.2	-9%	10.7 / 259.5 (4%)	-4.7 / 37.9 (-12%)	-37.2 / 42 (-89%)
Bellator	29	7.1	24%	7.1 / 29 (24%)

Hobie Holdem: Straight Pick Stats

Big favourite means >65% win chance according to bookies. Big underdog is <35% chance.

	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Units Bet	Units Profit	Profit per Pick	ROI
Big Favorites	48 (64%)	40	83 %	234.50	11.35	0.24	5%
Slight Favorites	15 (20%)	8	53 %	34.00	2.91	0.19	9%
Slight Underdogs	11 (15%)	7	64 %	19.00	0.90	0.08	5%
Big Underdogs	1 (1%)	1	100 %	1.00	2.60	2.60	260%

Betting Stats By Card Position

	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Units Bet	Units Profit	Profit per Pick	ROI
Main Event	5 (7%)	4	80 %	10.00	5.52	1.10	55%
Co-Main Event	8 (11%)	4	50 %	38.00	-19.43	-2.43	-51%
Position 3-5	17 (23%)	13	76 %	84.50	14.33	0.84	17%
6+ (Undercard)	45 (60%)	35	78 %	156.00	17.34	0.39	11%

Hobie Holdem: Profit by Weight Class

	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Units Bet	Units Profit	Profit per Pick	ROI
Heavyweight	7 (9%)	6	86 %	14.00	4.16	0.59	30%
Light Heavy	5 (7%)	4	80 %	15.00	3.95	0.79	26%
Middleweight	6 (8%)	6	100 %	20.00	11.39	1.90	57%
Welterweight	11 (15%)	9	82 %	60.00	-3.22	-0.29	-5%
Lightweight	12 (16%)	8	67 %	38.00	11.70	0.97	31%
Featherweight	7 (9%)	6	86 %	29.00	4.80	0.69	17%
Bantamweight	8 (11%)	5	63 %	31.00	-10.27	-1.28	-33%
Flyweight	3 (4%)	2	67 %	6.00	-1.67	-0.56	-28%

Women's Fights	16 (21%)	10	63 %	75.50	-3.08	-0.19	-4%
Featherweight	3 (4%)	2	67 %	4.50	-1.63	-0.54	-36%
Bantamweight	2 (3%)	1	50 %	20.00	-7.14	-3.57	-36%
Flyweight	9 (12%)	6	67 %	49.00	6.02	0.67	12%
Strawweight	2 (3%)	1	50 %	2.00	-0.33	-0.17	-17%

Props & Parlay Section Stats (Individual sections of this handicapper's parlays)

Straight picks within parlays

	Picks	Correct	% Correct
Big Favorites	28 (80%)	21	75 %
Slight Favorites	5 (14%)	1	20 %
Slight Underdogs	2 (6%)	0	0 %
Big Underdogs	0 (0%)	0	nan %
	35	22	63 %

Props bets and props within parlays

	Picks	Correct	% Correct
>65% chance	4 (25%)	1	25 %
50-65%	3 (19%)	3	100 %
35-50%	5 (31%)	0	0 %
<35% chance	4 (25%)	1	25 %
	16	5	31 %

Prop Bets and Props within Parlays: Bet Types

Prop Type	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Avg Odds	Longest Odds	Shortest Odds	1U Bet (ROI %)
Over (e.g. 1.5 / 2.5 rnds)	4 (25%)	2	50 %	1.41	1.59	1.26	-0.8 (-21%)
X Wins by KO	3 (19%)	1	33 %	2.14	2.55	1.83	-1.2 (-39%)
X Wins by Sub	3 (19%)	1	33 %	3.43	5.25	2.30	1.0 (33%)
X Wins by Decision	3 (19%)	0	0 %	2.92	5.70	2.07	-3.0 (-100%)
X Wins Inside Distance	2 (13%)	1	50 %	1.42	1.50	1.34	-0.5 (-25%)
X Wins in Round X	1 (6%)	0	0 %	31.00	31.00	31.00	-1.0 (-100%)
	16	5	31 %	2.11			-5.5 (-34%)

* 1U Bet (ROI %): Many of the picks will have been part of a parlay, however, as a rough guide to value / profitability, this figure supposes that the handicapper put a 1U bet on each of the picks individually, showing the profit / loss they would have made and the ROI %.

Tail Hobie Holdem's bets

If you had tailed this handicapper's bets since they started logging their picks with us, it would have affected your betting bank balance as follows...

This is more accurate than simply X units total profit. Under that more basic system, 1 unit is equal to the same amount of theoretical dollars, whether it was the last event or 10 events ago. However, if a handicapper has 10 events profit in a row, their betting bank balance will be significantly larger for the 10th event and 1 unit will equal a LOT more than it did 10 events ago.

Date	Event	Bet	Won	ROI	Fee	1 unit =	Start	End
25th Sep	UFC 266	50	19.6	39%		$10.00	$1,000.00	$1,196.48
2nd Oct	UFC FN	18	7.3	40%		$11.96	$1,196.48	$1,283.27
9th Oct	UFC FN	10	0.9	9%		$12.83	$1,283.27	$1,295.17
16th Oct	UFC FN	20	-4.3	-21%		$12.95	$1,295.17	$1,239.54
16th Oct	Bellator 268	29	7.1	24%		$12.40	$1,239.54	$1,327.31
23rd Oct	UFC FN	7	-0.0	-1%		$13.27	$1,327.31	$1,326.84
30th Oct	UFC 267	53	12.7	24%		$13.27	$1,326.84	$1,495.65
6th Nov	UFC 268	46.7	4.9	11%		$14.96	$1,495.65	$1,569.61
13th Nov	UFC FN	9.5	-7.4	-77%		$15.70	$1,569.61	$1,454.18
11th Dec	UFC 269	62	-24.0	-39%		$14.54	$1,454.18	$1,105.39
18th Dec	UFC FN	20	-20.0	-100%		$11.05	$1,105.39	$884.31
22nd Jan	UFC 270	43.2	-21.0	-49%		$8.84	$884.31	$698.54

ROI % from starting bank balance: -30.15% (including fees)
*Note - we don't store historical fee amounts, so we assume the fees are the same as the handicapper charges now.

Hobie Holdem: Last 20 Wins / Losses (Straight Picks)

Last 20 Wins

	Date	Straight Pick	Opponent	Odds	Bet	Result
1.	Jan '22	Matt Frevola	Genaro Valdez	1.57	1	TKO, R1 (3:15)
2.	Jan '22	Tony Gravely	Saimon Oliveira	1.44	1	U Decision (3 rounds)
3.	Jan '22	Jack Della Maddalena	Pete Rodriguez	1.29	4	TKO, R1 (2:59)
4.	Jan '22	Michel Pereira	Andre Fialho	1.40	10	U Decision (3 rounds)
5.	Dec '21	Andre Muniz	Eryk Anders	1.81	1	Sub, R1 (3:13)
6.	Dec '21	Sean O'Malley	Raulian Paiva	1.35	10	TKO, R1 (4:42)
7.	Dec '21	Charles Oliveira	Dustin Poirier	2.40	3	Sub, R3 (1:2)
8.	Nov '21	Cortney Casey	Liana Jojua	1.48	1	U Decision (3 rounds)
9.	Nov '21	Felicia Spencer	Leah Letson	1.34	0.5	TKO, R3 (4:25)
10.	Nov '21	Melsik Bagdasaryan	Bruno Souza	1.31	4	U Decision (3 rounds)
11.	Nov '21	Chris Barnett	Gian Villante	2.05	1	TKO, R2 (2:23)
12.	Nov '21	Ian Garry	Jordan Williams	1.25	8	TKO, R1 (4:59)
13.	Nov '21	Chris Curtis	Phil Hawes	3.60	1	TKO, R1 (4:27)
14.	Nov '21	Alex Pereira	Andreas Michailidis	1.45	4	TKO, R2 (0:18)
15.	Nov '21	Justin Gaethje	Michael Chandler	1.47	4	U Decision (3 rounds)
16.	Nov '21	Kamaru Usman	Colby Covington	1.35	1	U Decision (5 rounds)
17.	Oct '21	Magomed Ankalaev	Volkan Oezdemir	1.34	8	U Decision (3 rounds)
18.	Oct '21	Tagir Ulanbekov	Allan Nascimento	1.28	1	Split Decision (3 rounds)
19.	Oct '21	Lerone Murphy	Makwan Amirkhani	1.33	1	TKO, R2 (0:14)
20.	Oct '21	Michal Oleksiejczuk	Shamil Gamzatov	2.15	1	TKO, R1 (3:31)

Last 20 Losses

	Date	Straight Pick	Opponent	Odds	Bet	Result	Hedge?
1.	Jan '22	Raoni Barcelos	Victor Henry	1.22	10	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
2.	Jan '22	Cody Stamann	Said Nurmagomedov	2.65	5	Sub, R1 (0:47)	No
3.	Dec '21	Macy Chiasson	Raquel Pennington	2.70	3	Sub, R2 (3:7)	No
4.	Dec '21	Stephen Thompson	Belal Muhammad	1.47	10	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
5.	Dec '21	Randy Costa	Tony Kelley	1.59	1	TKO, R2 (4:15)	No
6.	Dec '21	Miranda Maverick	Erin Blanchfield	1.77	1	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
7.	Dec '21	Cody Garbrandt	Kai Kara-France	1.78	3	TKO, R1 (3:21)	No
8.	Dec '21	Amanda Nunes	Julianna Pena	1.12	10	Sub, R2 (3:26)	No
9.	Nov '21	Marc Diakiese	Rafael Alves	1.54	2	Sub, R1 (1:48)	No
10.	Nov '21	Thiago Moises	Joel Alvarez	1.42	2	TKO, R1 (3:1)	No
11.	Nov '21	Ben Rothwell	Marcos Rogerio de Lima	1.67	2	TKO, R1 (0:32)	No
12.	Nov '21	Al Iaquinta	Bobby Green	2.70	1	TKO, R1 (2:25)	No
13.	Nov '21	Weili Zhang	Rose Namajunas	2.00	1	Split Decision (5 rounds)	No
14.	Oct '21	Jan Blachowicz	Glover Teixeira	1.35	2	Sub, R2 (3:2)	No
15.	Oct '21	Seung Woo Choi	Alex Caceres	1.34	2	Sub, R2 (3:31)	No
16.	Oct '21	Lupita Godinez	Luana Carolina	1.40	4	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
17.	Oct '21	Ramazan Emeev	Danny Roberts	1.36	6	Split Decision (3 rounds)	No
18.	Oct '21	Sabina Mazo	Mariya Agapova	1.56	2	Sub, R3 (0:53)	No
19.	Sep '21	Uros Medic	Jalin Turner	1.83	1	Sub, R1 (4:1)	No

* Hedge indicates that this handicapper also had a WINNING bet on the opponent. For example, they may have bet A to win straight up but with a hedge on the other fighter winning by decision.

Hobie Holdem: Progress Chart

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