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MMA Handicapper Stats: Matt Sheps

Matt Sheps (Starsky_44)

MMA Betting Stats Summary

Overall Stats		Straight Fight Picks		Props		Parlays
Right	15 (38%)	Right	13 (34%)	Right	2 (100%)	Right	0 (nan%)
Wrong	25 (63%)	Wrong	25 (66%)	Wrong	0 (0%)	Wrong	0 (nan%)
Avg Odds	2.37	Avg Odds	2.40	Avg Odds	1.93	Avg Odds	nan
Units Bet	38.4	Units Bet	36.4	Units Bet	2.0	Units Bet	0.0
Avg Bet	0.96	Avg Bet	0.96	Avg Bet	1.00	Avg Bet	nan
Units Profit	-9.16	Units Profit	-11.05	Units Profit	1.89	Units Profit	0.00
ROI %	-24%	ROI %	-30%	ROI %	95%	ROI %	nan%

Matt Sheps: Event by Event Predictions

The straight picks, parlays and props sections display Winnings / Bets (ROI%)

Date	Event	Bet	Won	ROI	Straight Picks	Props	Parlays
8th Jun '19	UFC 238	4.75	-2.2	-47%	-2.2 / 4.75 (-47%)
17th Feb '19	UFC on ESPN 1	3	-3.0	-100%	-3.0 / 3 (-100%)
9th Feb '19	UFC 234	2.5	-2.5	-100%	-2.5 / 2.5 (-100%)
29th Dec '18	UFC 232	2.75	-2.8	-100%	-2.8 / 2.75 (-100%)
15th Dec '18	UFC Fight Night Milwaukee	3	1.0	33%	1.0 / 3 (33%)
6th Oct '18	UFC 229	1.5	-1.5	-100%	-1.5 / 1.5 (-100%)
4th Aug '18	UFC 227	1.5	0.9	60%	0.9 / 1.5 (60%)
21st Apr '18	UFC Fight Night 128	2	-2.0	-100%	-2.0 / 2 (-100%)
3rd Mar '18	UFC 222	3	1.3	43%	1.3 / 3 (43%)
10th Feb '18	UFC 221	2	-0.7	-36%	-0.7 / 2 (-36%)
20th Jan '18	UFC 220	1	0.3	25%	0.3 / 1 (25%)
20th Jan '18	Bellator 192	0.5	-0.5	-100%	-0.5 / 0.5 (-100%)
31st Dec '17	UFC 219	1.6	-0.1	-5%	-0.1 / 1.6 (-5%)
16th Dec '17	UFC on Fox 26 Lawler vs. dos Anjos	3	-0.7	-23%	-0.7 / 3 (-23%)
9th Dec '17	UFC Fight Night 123	2.5	1.2	46%	1.2 / 2.5 (46%)
2nd Dec '17	UFC 218	2.8	1.1	41%	0.3 / 1.8 (19%)	0.8 / 1 (79%)
2nd Dec '17	TUF 26 Finale	1	1.1	110%		1.1 / 1 (110%)

Winning Events: 7 (41%)
Losing Events: 10 (59%)

Average Staked Per Event: 2.26 units
Most Staked On One Event: 4.75 units
Best Event: 1.29 units
Worst Event: -3.00 units
Average Event: -0.54 units

Max Win Streak: Events: 3, Units: 3.40
Max Losing Streak: Events: 4, Units: -10.48

Matt Sheps: Year on Year Profit

Year	Bet	Won	ROI	Straight Won / Bet (ROI%)	Prop Won / Bet (ROI%)	Parlay Won / Bet (ROI%)	Events Won / Lost (%)	Profit Per Event
2019	10.25	-7.7	-75%	-7.7 / 10.25 (-75%)			/ 3 (0%)	-2.58
2018	17.25	-4.1	-24%	-4.1 / 17.25 (-24%)			4 / 5 (44%)	-0.45
2017	10.9	2.6	24%	0.7 / 8.9 (8%)	1.9 / 2 (94%)		3 / 2 (60%)	0.52

Matt Sheps: Yearly Straight Pick Stats

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Matt Sheps: Profit / Loss by Organization

Organization	Bet	Won	ROI	Straight Picks	Props	Parlays
UFC	37.9	-8.7	-23%	-10.6 / 35.9 (-29%)	1.9 / 2 (94%)
Bellator	0.5	-0.5	-100%	-0.5 / 0.5 (-100%)

Matt Sheps: Straight Pick Stats

Big favourite means >65% win chance according to bookies. Big underdog is <35% chance.

	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Units Bet	Units Profit	Profit per Pick	ROI
Big Favorites	0 (0%)	0	nan %	0.00	0.00	nan	nan%
Slight Favorites	10 (26%)	3	30 %	15.00	-8.62	-0.86	-57%
Slight Underdogs	16 (42%)	7	44 %	15.35	-2.38	-0.15	-16%
Big Underdogs	12 (32%)	3	25 %	6.05	-0.05	-0.00	-1%

Betting Stats By Card Position

	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Units Bet	Units Profit	Profit per Pick	ROI
Main Event	14 (37%)	4	29 %	13.30	-6.92	-0.49	-52%
Co-Main Event	5 (13%)	3	60 %	4.00	2.87	0.57	72%
Position 3-5	11 (29%)	3	27 %	12.35	-6.63	-0.60	-54%
6+ (Undercard)	8 (21%)	3	38 %	6.75	-0.38	-0.05	-6%

Matt Sheps: Profit by Weight Class

	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Units Bet	Units Profit	Profit per Pick	ROI
Heavyweight	3 (8%)	1	33 %	4.00	-2.75	-0.92	-69%
Light Heavy	5 (13%)	1	20 %	5.50	-3.20	-0.64	-58%
Middleweight	3 (8%)	1	33 %	2.00	-0.73	-0.24	-36%
Welterweight	5 (13%)		0 %	4.50	-4.50	-0.90	-100%
Lightweight	10 (26%)	4	40 %	8.10	-0.45	-0.04	-6%
Featherweight	7 (18%)	3	43 %	7.30	-0.43	-0.06	-6%
Bantamweight	4 (11%)	2	50 %	4.50	-0.90	-0.23	-20%
Flyweight	1 (3%)	1	100 %	0.50	1.90	1.90	380%

Props & Parlay Section Stats (Individual sections of this handicapper's parlays)

Straight picks within parlays

	Picks	Correct	% Correct
Big Favorites	0 (nan%)	0	nan %
Slight Favorites	0 (nan%)	0	nan %
Slight Underdogs	0 (nan%)	0	nan %
Big Underdogs	0 (nan%)	0	nan %
	0	0	nan %

Props bets and props within parlays

	Picks	Correct	% Correct
>65% chance	0 (0%)	0	nan %
50-65%	1 (50%)	1	100 %
35-50%	1 (50%)	1	100 %
<35% chance	0 (0%)	0	nan %
	2	2	100 %

Prop Bets and Props within Parlays: Bet Types

Prop Type	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Avg Odds	Longest Odds	Shortest Odds	1U Bet (ROI %)
Under (e.g. 1.5 / 2.5 rnds)	2 (100%)	2	100 %	1.93	2.10	1.79	1.9 (94%)
	2	2	100 %	1.93			1.9 (94%)

* 1U Bet (ROI %): Many of the picks will have been part of a parlay, however, as a rough guide to value / profitability, this figure supposes that the handicapper put a 1U bet on each of the picks individually, showing the profit / loss they would have made and the ROI %.

Tail Matt Sheps's bets

If you had tailed this handicapper's bets since they started logging their picks with us, it would have affected your betting bank balance as follows...

This is more accurate than simply X units total profit. Under that more basic system, 1 unit is equal to the same amount of theoretical dollars, whether it was the last event or 10 events ago. However, if a handicapper has 10 events profit in a row, their betting bank balance will be significantly larger for the 10th event and 1 unit will equal a LOT more than it did 10 events ago.

Date	Event	Bet	Won	ROI	Fee	1 unit =	Start	End
2nd Dec	TUF 26 Finale	1	1.1	110%		$10.00	$1,000.00	$1,011.00
2nd Dec	UFC 218	2.8	1.1	41%		$10.11	$1,011.00	$1,022.53
9th Dec	UFC Fight Night 123	2.5	1.2	46%		$10.23	$1,022.53	$1,034.39
16th Dec	UFC on Fox 26 Lawler vs. dos Anjos	3	-0.7	-23%		$10.34	$1,034.39	$1,027.15
31st Dec	UFC 219	1.6	-0.1	-5%		$10.27	$1,027.15	$1,026.37
20th Jan	UFC 220	1	0.3	25%		$10.26	$1,026.37	$1,028.93
20th Jan	Bellator 192	0.5	-0.5	-100%		$10.29	$1,028.93	$1,023.79
10th Feb	UFC 221	2	-0.7	-36%		$10.24	$1,023.79	$1,016.36
3rd Mar	UFC 222	3	1.3	43%		$10.16	$1,016.36	$1,029.47
21st Apr	UFC Fight Night 128	2	-2.0	-100%		$10.29	$1,029.47	$1,008.89
4th Aug	UFC 227	1.5	0.9	60%		$10.09	$1,008.89	$1,017.97
6th Oct	UFC 229	1.5	-1.5	-100%		$10.18	$1,017.97	$1,002.70
15th Dec	UFC Fight Night Milwaukee	3	1.0	33%		$10.03	$1,002.70	$1,012.52
29th Dec	UFC 232	2.75	-2.8	-100%		$10.13	$1,012.52	$984.68
9th Feb	UFC 234	2.5	-2.5	-100%		$9.85	$984.68	$960.06
17th Feb	UFC on ESPN 1	3	-3.0	-100%		$9.60	$960.06	$931.26
8th Jun	UFC 238	4.75	-2.2	-47%		$9.31	$931.26	$910.49

ROI % from starting bank balance: -8.95% (including fees)
*Note - we don't store historical fee amounts, so we assume the fees are the same as the handicapper charges now.

Matt Sheps: Last 20 Wins / Losses (Straight Picks)

Last 20 Wins

	Date	Straight Pick	Opponent	Odds	Bet	Result
1.	Jun '19	Calvin Kattar	Ricardo Lamas	1.68	1.5	TKO, R1 (4:6)
2.	Dec '18	Al Iaquinta	Kevin Lee	3.80	0.5	U Decision (5 rounds)
3.	Dec '18	Edson Barboza	Daniel Hooker	2.08	1	TKO, R3 (2:19)
4.	Aug '18	Henry Cejudo	Demetrious Johnson	4.80	0.5	Split Decision (5 rounds)
5.	Mar '18	Sean O'Malley	Andre Soukhamthath	1.90	1	U Decision (3 rounds)
6.	Mar '18	Brian Ortega	Frankie Edgar	2.39	1	TKO, R1 (4:44)
7.	Feb '18	Yoel Romero	Luke Rockhold	2.55	0.5	TKO, R3 (1:48)
8.	Jan '18	Stipe Miocic	Francis Ngannou	2.50	0.5	U Decision (5 rounds)
9.	Dec '17	Daniel Hooker	Marc Diakiese	2.54	0.6	Sub, R3 (0:42)
10.	Dec '17	Glover Teixeira	Misha Cirkunov	2.30	1	TKO, R1 (2:45)
11.	Dec '17	Andre Soukhamthath	Luke Sanders	3.40	0.5	TKO, R2 (1:30)
12.	Dec '17	Brian Ortega	Cub Swanson	1.96	1	Sub, R2 (3:22)
13.	Dec '17	Paul Felder	Charles Oliveira	2.15	1	TKO, R2 (4:6)

Last 20 Losses

	Date	Straight Pick	Opponent	Odds	Bet	Result	Hedge?
1.	Jun '19	Donald Cerrone	Tony Ferguson	2.43	1.25	TKO, R2 (5:0)	No
2.	Jun '19	Marlon Moraes	Henry Cejudo	1.65	2	TKO, R3 (4:51)	No
3.	Feb '19	Cain Velasquez	Francis Ngannou	1.54	3	TKO, R1 (0:26)	No
4.	Feb '19	Sam Alvey	Jim Crute	2.33	2	TKO, R1 (2:49)	No
5.	Feb '19	Anderson Silva	Israel Adesanya	4.90	0.5	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
6.	Dec '18	B.J. Penn	Ryan Hall	4.75	0.25	Sub, R1 (2:46)	No
7.	Dec '18	Chad Mendes	Alex Volkanovski	1.74	2	TKO, R2 (4:14)	No
8.	Dec '18	Alexander Gustafsson	Jon Jones	3.45	0.5	TKO, R3 (2:2)	No
9.	Dec '18	Adam Milstead	Mike Rodriguez	1.78	1.5	TKO, R1 (2:59)	No
10.	Oct '18	Anthony Pettis	Tony Ferguson	4.20	0.5	TKO, R2 (5:0)	No
11.	Oct '18	Conor McGregor	Khabib Nurmagomedov	2.65	1	Sub, R4 (3:2)	No
12.	Aug '18	Cody Garbrandt	T.J. Dillashaw	2.10	1	TKO, R1 (4:10)	No
13.	Apr '18	Cub Swanson	Frankie Edgar	3.11	1	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
14.	Apr '18	Edson Barboza	Kevin Lee	2.36	1	TKO, R5 (2:18)	No
15.	Mar '18	Hector Lombard	C.B. Dollaway	1.84	1		No
16.	Feb '18	Jeremy Kennedy	Alex Volkanovski	2.75	0.5	TKO, R2 (4:57)	No
17.	Feb '18	Li Jingliang	Jake Matthews	1.68	1	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
18.	Jan '18	Douglas Lima	Rory MacDonald	2.89	0.5	U Decision (5 rounds)	No
19.	Jan '18	Volkan Oezdemir	Daniel Cormier	3.60	0.5	TKO, R2 (2:0)	No
20.	Dec '17	Carlos Condit	Neil Magny	1.74	1	U Decision (3 rounds)	No

* Hedge indicates that this handicapper also had a WINNING bet on the opponent. For example, they may have bet A to win straight up but with a hedge on the other fighter winning by decision.

Matt Sheps: Progress Chart

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