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MMA Handicapper Stats: Mystic Mac Predictions

Mystic Mac Predictions (NotoriousMoney)

MMA MHandicapper - Mystic Mac Predictions

MMA Betting Stats Summary

Overall Stats		Straight Fight Picks		Props		Parlays
Right	26 (44%)	Right	20 (48%)	Right	6 (43%)	Right	0 (0%)
Wrong	33 (56%)	Wrong	22 (52%)	Wrong	8 (57%)	Wrong	3 (100%)
Avg Odds	2.05	Avg Odds	1.87	Avg Odds	2.37	Avg Odds	6.06
Units Bet	196.0	Units Bet	145.5	Units Bet	42.5	Units Bet	8.0
Avg Bet	3.32	Avg Bet	3.46	Avg Bet	3.04	Avg Bet	2.67
Units Profit	-23.95	Units Profit	-16.04	Units Profit	0.09	Units Profit	-8.00
ROI %	-12%	ROI %	-11%	ROI %	0%	ROI %	-100%

Mystic Mac Predictions: Event by Event Predictions

The straight picks, parlays and props sections display Winnings / Bets (ROI%)

Date	Event	Bet	Won	ROI	Straight Picks	Props	Parlays
2nd Mar '19	UFC 235	12	-6.8	-57%	-5.8 / 11 (-53%)		-1.0 / 1 (-100%)
17th Feb '19	UFC on ESPN 1	13	3.5	27%	5.5 / 11 (50%)		-2.0 / 2 (-100%)
9th Feb '19	UFC 234	6	-6.0	-100%		-6.0 / 6 (-100%)
19th Jan '19	UFC on ESPN+ 1	10	2.5	25%	3.5 / 9 (39%)	-1.0 / 1 (-100%)
4th Feb '18	UFC Fight Night 125	16	-1.6	-10%	-1.6 / 16 (-10%)
31st Dec '17	UFC 219	27	-19.9	-74%	-19.9 / 27 (-74%)
25th Nov '17	UFC Fight Night 122 Bisping vs. Gastellum	7	-7.0	-100%	-7.0 / 7 (-100%)
18th Nov '17	UFC Fight Night 121 Sydney	13	8.5	65%	8.5 / 13 (65%)
16th Sep '17	UFC Fight Night 116 Rockhold vs. Branch	36	-4.3	-12%	1.5 / 15.5 (10%)	-0.8 / 15.5 (-5%)	-5.0 / 5 (-100%)
9th Sep '17	UFC 215	24	4.5	19%	2.5 / 11 (23%)	2.0 / 13 (15%)
2nd Sep '17	UFC Fight Night Struve vs. Volkov	17	1.5	9%	-1.6 / 12 (-13%)	3.0 / 5 (61%)
29th Jul '17	UFC 214	15	1.2	8%	-1.7 / 13 (-13%)	2.9 / 2 (145%)

Winning Events: 6 (50%)
Losing Events: 6 (50%)

Average Staked Per Event: 16.33 units
Most Staked On One Event: 36.00 units
Best Event: 8.49 units
Worst Event: -19.92 units
Average Event: -2.00 units

Max Win Streak: Events: 3, Units: 8.49
Max Losing Streak: Events: 3, Units: -28.47

Mystic Mac Predictions: Year on Year Profit

Year	Bet	Won	ROI	Straight Won / Bet (ROI%)	Prop Won / Bet (ROI%)	Parlay Won / Bet (ROI%)	Events Won / Lost (%)	Profit Per Event
2019	41	-6.8	-17%	3.2 / 31 (10%)	-7.0 / 7 (-100%)	-3.0 / 3 (-100%)	2 / 2 (50%)	-1.71
2018	16	-1.6	-10%	-1.6 / 16 (-10%)			/ 1 (0%)	-1.56
2017	139	-15.5	-11%	-17.6 / 98.5 (-18%)	7.1 / 35.5 (20%)	-5.0 / 5 (-100%)	4 / 3 (57%)	-2.22

Mystic Mac Predictions: Yearly Straight Pick Stats

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Mystic Mac Predictions: Profit / Loss by Organization

Organization	Bet	Won	ROI	Straight Picks	Props	Parlays
UFC	196	-23.9	-12%	-16.0 / 145.5 (-11%)	0.1 / 42.5 (0%)	-8.0 / 8 (-100%)

Mystic Mac Predictions: Straight Pick Stats

Big favourite means >65% win chance according to bookies. Big underdog is <35% chance.

	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Units Bet	Units Profit	Profit per Pick	ROI
Big Favorites	12 (29%)	8	67 %	57.00	-3.17	-0.26	-6%
Slight Favorites	14 (33%)	7	50 %	44.00	-8.14	-0.58	-18%
Slight Underdogs	8 (19%)	4	50 %	24.00	2.27	0.28	9%
Big Underdogs	8 (19%)	1	13 %	20.50	-7.00	-0.87	-34%

Betting Stats By Card Position

	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Units Bet	Units Profit	Profit per Pick	ROI
Main Event	9 (21%)	2	22 %	29.50	-13.13	-1.46	-45%
Co-Main Event	6 (14%)	3	50 %	25.00	-4.25	-0.71	-17%
Position 3-5	13 (31%)	5	38 %	50.00	-20.11	-1.55	-40%
6+ (Undercard)	14 (33%)	10	71 %	41.00	21.45	1.53	52%

Mystic Mac Predictions: Profit by Weight Class

	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Units Bet	Units Profit	Profit per Pick	ROI
Heavyweight	3 (7%)	2	67 %	19.00	-2.63	-0.88	-14%
Light Heavy	5 (12%)	2	40 %	10.00	0.57	0.11	6%
Middleweight	4 (10%)	2	50 %	16.50	-1.13	-0.28	-7%
Welterweight	9 (21%)	4	44 %	25.00	-8.65	-0.96	-35%
Lightweight	8 (19%)	5	63 %	32.00	9.45	1.18	30%
Featherweight	2 (5%)	1	50 %	4.00	1.10	0.55	27%
Bantamweight	3 (7%)		0 %	6.00	-6.00	-2.00	-100%
Flyweight	3 (7%)	2	67 %	9.00	0.97	0.32	11%

Women's Fights	5 (12%)	2	40 %	24.00	-9.73	-1.95	-41%
Featherweight	1 (2%)		0 %	2.00	-2.00	-2.00	-100%
Bantamweight	1 (2%)		0 %	5.00	-5.00	-5.00	-100%
Flyweight	1 (2%)	1	100 %	7.00	0.78	0.78	11%
Strawweight	2 (5%)	1	50 %	10.00	-3.50	-1.75	-35%

Props & Parlay Section Stats (Individual sections of this handicapper's parlays)

Straight picks within parlays

	Picks	Correct	% Correct
Big Favorites	5 (38%)	5	100 %
Slight Favorites	7 (54%)	3	43 %
Slight Underdogs	1 (8%)	1	100 %
Big Underdogs	0 (0%)	0	nan %
	13	9	69 %

Props bets and props within parlays

	Picks	Correct	% Correct
>65% chance	0 (0%)	0	nan %
50-65%	6 (43%)	4	67 %
35-50%	3 (21%)	2	67 %
<35% chance	5 (36%)	0	0 %
	14	6	43 %

Prop Bets and Props within Parlays: Bet Types

Prop Type	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Avg Odds	Longest Odds	Shortest Odds	1U Bet (ROI %)
Over (e.g. 1.5 / 2.5 rnds)	4 (29%)	3	75 %	1.73	1.87	1.61	1.2 (30%)
Goes to Decision	1 (7%)	0	0 %	3.25	3.25	3.25	-1.0 (-100%)
Fight Starts Round X	2 (14%)	2	100 %	2.10	2.40	1.87	2.3 (113%)
X Wins by Decision	3 (21%)	0	0 %	3.18	4.00	2.70	-3.0 (-100%)
X Wins Inside Distance	2 (14%)	0	0 %	2.15	2.90	1.71	-2.0 (-100%)
X Wins in Round X	1 (7%)	0	0 %	17.00	17.00	17.00	-1.0 (-100%)
Others	1 (7%)	1	100 %	2.45	2.45	2.45	1.5 (145%)
	14	6	43 %	2.37			-2.1 (-15%)

* 1U Bet (ROI %): Many of the picks will have been part of a parlay, however, as a rough guide to value / profitability, this figure supposes that the handicapper put a 1U bet on each of the picks individually, showing the profit / loss they would have made and the ROI %.

Tail Mystic Mac Predictions's bets

If you had tailed this handicapper's bets since they started logging their picks with us, it would have affected your betting bank balance as follows...

This is more accurate than simply X units total profit. Under that more basic system, 1 unit is equal to the same amount of theoretical dollars, whether it was the last event or 10 events ago. However, if a handicapper has 10 events profit in a row, their betting bank balance will be significantly larger for the 10th event and 1 unit will equal a LOT more than it did 10 events ago.

Date	Event	Bet	Won	ROI	Fee	1 unit =	Start	End
29th Jul	UFC 214	15	1.2	8%		$10.00	$1,000.00	$1,012.26
2nd Sep	UFC Fight Night Struve vs. Volkov	17	1.5	9%		$10.12	$1,012.26	$1,027.02
9th Sep	UFC 215	24	4.5	19%		$10.27	$1,027.02	$1,072.79
16th Sep	UFC Fight Night 116 Rockhold vs. Branch	36	-4.3	-12%		$10.73	$1,072.79	$1,027.10
18th Nov	UFC Fight Night 121 Sydney	13	8.5	65%		$10.27	$1,027.10	$1,114.31
25th Nov	UFC Fight Night 122 Bisping vs. Gastellum	7	-7.0	-100%		$11.14	$1,114.31	$1,036.31
31st Dec	UFC 219	27	-19.9	-74%		$10.36	$1,036.31	$829.91
4th Feb	UFC Fight Night 125	16	-1.6	-10%		$8.30	$829.91	$817.00
19th Jan	UFC on ESPN+ 1	10	2.5	25%		$8.17	$817.00	$837.26
9th Feb	UFC 234	6	-6.0	-100%		$8.37	$837.26	$787.03
17th Feb	UFC on ESPN 1	13	3.5	27%		$7.87	$787.03	$814.55
2nd Mar	UFC 235	12	-6.8	-57%		$8.15	$814.55	$758.95

ROI % from starting bank balance: -24.11% (including fees)
*Note - we don't store historical fee amounts, so we assume the fees are the same as the handicapper charges now.

Mystic Mac Predictions: Last 20 Wins / Losses (Straight Picks)

Last 20 Wins

	Date	Straight Pick	Opponent	Odds	Bet	Result
1.	Mar '19	Johnny Walker	Misha Cirkunov	1.72	3	TKO, R1 (0:36)
2.	Feb '19	Paul Felder	James Vick	2.00	5	U Decision (3 rounds)
3.	Feb '19	Cynthia Calvillo	Cortney Casey	1.30	5	U Decision (3 rounds)
4.	Jan '19	Geoff Neal	Belal Muhammad	1.57	1	U Decision (3 rounds)
5.	Jan '19	Donald Cerrone	Alexander Hernandez	2.62	1	TKO, R2 (3:43)
6.	Jan '19	Glover Teixeira	Karl Roberson	1.80	3	Sub, R1 (3:21)
7.	Jan '19	Joseph Benavidez	Dustin Ortiz	1.44	2	U Decision (3 rounds)
8.	Feb '18	Thiago Santos	Anthony Smith	1.33	5	TKO, R2 (1:3)
9.	Feb '18	Valentina Shevchenko	Priscila Cachoeira	1.11	7	Sub, R2 (4:25)
10.	Dec '17	Matheus Nicolau	Louis Smolka	1.42	5	U Decision (3 rounds)
11.	Nov '17	Belal Muhammad	Tim Means	2.85	3	Split Decision (3 rounds)
12.	Nov '17	Fabricio Werdum	Marcin Tybura	1.29	10	U Decision (5 rounds)
13.	Sep '17	Anthony Smith	Hector Lombard	1.74	5	TKO, R3 (2:33)
14.	Sep '17	Gilbert Burns	Jason Saggo	1.67	5	TKO, R2 (4:55)
15.	Sep '17	Kajan Johnson	Adriano Martins	4.50	3	TKO, R3 (0:49)
16.	Sep '17	Mairbek Taisumov	Felipe Silva	1.40	5	TKO, R1 (1:24)
17.	Sep '17	Alexander Volkov	Stefan Struve	1.71	2	TKO, R3 (3:34)
18.	Jul '17	Brian Ortega	Renato Moicano	2.55	2	Sub, R3 (2:59)
19.	Jul '17	Robbie Lawler	Donald Cerrone	1.63	2	U Decision (3 rounds)
20.	Jul '17	Tyron Woodley	Demian Maia	1.49	2	U Decision (5 rounds)

Last 20 Losses

	Date	Straight Pick	Opponent	Odds	Bet	Result	Hedge?
1.	Mar '19	Alejandro Perez	Cody Stamann	2.50	1	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
2.	Mar '19	Cody Garbrandt	Pedro Munhoz	1.59	3	TKO, R1 (4:52)	No
3.	Mar '19	Tyron Woodley	Kamaru Usman	1.59	3	U Decision (5 rounds)	No
4.	Mar '19	Anthony Smith	Jon Jones	6.50	1	U Decision (5 rounds)	Yes
5.	Feb '19	Bryan Barberena	Vicente Luque	4.00	1	TKO, R3 (4:54)	Yes
6.	Jan '19	T.J. Dillashaw	Henry Cejudo	1.48	2	TKO, R1 (0:32)	No
7.	Feb '18	Eryk Anders	Lyoto Machida	1.38	4	Split Decision (5 rounds)	No
8.	Dec '17	Holly Holm	Cristiane Justino	3.90	2	U Decision (5 rounds)	No
9.	Dec '17	Edson Barboza	Khabib Nurmagomedov	3.35	5	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
10.	Dec '17	Marc Diakiese	Daniel Hooker	1.49	5	Sub, R3 (0:42)	No
11.	Dec '17	Cynthia Calvillo	Carla Esparza	1.38	5	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
12.	Dec '17	Carlos Condit	Neil Magny	1.61	5	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
13.	Nov '17	Chase Sherman	Shamil Abdurakhimov	2.15	7	TKO, R1 (1:24)	No
14.	Sep '17	Tony Martin	Olivier Aubin-Mercier	1.87	3	Split Decision (3 rounds)	No
15.	Sep '17	David Branch	Luke Rockhold	4.75	2.5	Sub, R2 (4:5)	No
16.	Sep '17	Neil Magny	Rafael dos Anjos	2.55	3	Sub, R1 (3:43)	No
17.	Sep '17	Valentina Shevchenko	Amanda Nunes	1.80	5	Split Decision (5 rounds)	No
18.	Sep '17	Bryan Barberena	Leon Edwards	3.50	5	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
19.	Jul '17	Daniel Cormier	Jon Jones	3.10	1	TKO, R3 (3:1)	No
20.	Jul '17	Jimi Manuwa	Volkan Oezdemir	1.63	2	TKO, R1 (0:42)	No

* Hedge indicates that this handicapper also had a WINNING bet on the opponent. For example, they may have bet A to win straight up but with a hedge on the other fighter winning by decision.

Mystic Mac Predictions: Progress Chart

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