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MMA Handicapper Stats: Mystic Mac Predictions

Mystic Mac Predictions (NotoriousMoney)


MMA MHandicapper - Mystic Mac Predictions

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MMA Betting Stats Summary

Overall Stats

Straight Fight Picks

Props

Parlays

Right 26 (44%) Right 20 (48%) Right 6 (43%) Right 0 (0%)
Wrong 33 (56%) Wrong 22 (52%) Wrong 8 (57%) Wrong 3 (100%)
Avg Odds 2.05 Avg Odds 1.87 Avg Odds 2.37 Avg Odds 6.50
Units Bet 196.0 Units Bet 145.5 Units Bet 42.5 Units Bet 8.0
Avg Bet 3.32 Avg Bet 3.46 Avg Bet 3.04 Avg Bet 2.67
Units Profit -23.95 Units Profit -16.04 Units Profit 0.09 Units Profit -8.00
ROI % -12% ROI % -11% ROI % 0% ROI % -100%
View Handicapper's Profile

Mystic Mac Predictions: Event by Event Predictions

The straight picks, parlays and props sections display Winnings / Bets (ROI%)

Date Event Bet Won ROI Straight Picks Props Parlays
2nd Mar '19 UFC 235 12 -6.8 -57% -5.8 / 11 (-53%) -1.0 / 1 (-100%)
17th Feb '19 UFC on ESPN 1 13 3.5 27% 5.5 / 11 (50%) -2.0 / 2 (-100%)
9th Feb '19 UFC 234 6 -6.0 -100% -6.0 / 6 (-100%)
19th Jan '19 UFC on ESPN+ 1 10 2.5 25% 3.5 / 9 (39%) -1.0 / 1 (-100%)
4th Feb '18 UFC Fight Night 125 16 -1.6 -10% -1.6 / 16 (-10%)
31st Dec '17 UFC 219 27 -19.9 -74% -19.9 / 27 (-74%)
25th Nov '17 UFC Fight Night 122 Bisping vs. Gastellum 7 -7.0 -100% -7.0 / 7 (-100%)
18th Nov '17 UFC Fight Night 121 Sydney 13 8.5 65% 8.5 / 13 (65%)
16th Sep '17 UFC Fight Night 116 Rockhold vs. Branch 36 -4.3 -12% 1.5 / 15.5 (10%) -0.8 / 15.5 (-5%) -5.0 / 5 (-100%)
9th Sep '17 UFC 215 24 4.5 19% 2.5 / 11 (23%) 2.0 / 13 (15%)
2nd Sep '17 UFC Fight Night Struve vs. Volkov 17 1.5 9% -1.6 / 12 (-13%) 3.0 / 5 (61%)
29th Jul '17 UFC 214 15 1.2 8% -1.7 / 13 (-13%) 2.9 / 2 (145%)


Winning Events: 6 (50%)
Losing Events: 6 (50%)

Average Staked Per Event: 16.33 units
Most Staked On One Event: 36.00 units
Best Event: 8.49 units
Worst Event: -19.92 units
Average Event: -2.00 units

Max Win Streak: Events: 3, Units: 8.49
Max Losing Streak: Events: 3, Units: -28.47

Mystic Mac Predictions: Year on Year Profit

Year Bet Won ROI Straight
Won / Bet (ROI%)
Prop
Won / Bet (ROI%)
Parlay
Won / Bet (ROI%)
Events
Won / Lost (%)
Profit
Per Event
2019 41 -6.8 -17% 3.2 / 31 (10%) -7.0 / 7 (-100%) -3.0 / 3 (-100%) 2 / 2 (50%) -1.71
2018 16 -1.6 -10% -1.6 / 16 (-10%) / 1 (0%) -1.56
2017 139 -15.5 -11% -17.6 / 98.5 (-18%) 7.1 / 35.5 (20%) -5.0 / 5 (-100%) 4 / 3 (57%) -2.22

Mystic Mac Predictions: Yearly Straight Pick Stats

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Mystic Mac Predictions: Profit / Loss by Organization

Organization Bet Won ROI Straight Picks Props Parlays
UFC 196 -23.9 -12% -16.0 / 145.5 (-11%) 0.1 / 42.5 (0%) -8.0 / 8 (-100%)

Mystic Mac Predictions: Straight Pick Stats

Big favourite means >65% win chance according to bookies. Big underdog is <35% chance.

  Picks Correct % Correct Units Bet Units Profit Profit per Pick ROI
Big Favorites 12 (29%) 8 67 % 57.00 -3.17 -0.26 -6%
Slight Favorites 14 (33%) 7 50 % 44.00 -8.14 -0.58 -18%
Slight Underdogs 8 (19%) 4 50 % 24.00 2.27 0.28 9%
Big Underdogs 8 (19%) 1 13 % 20.50 -7.00 -0.87 -34%



Betting Stats By Card Position

  Picks Correct % Correct Units Bet Units Profit Profit per Pick ROI
Main Event 9 (21%) 2 22 % 29.50 -13.13 -1.46 -45%
Co-Main Event 6 (14%) 3 50 % 25.00 -4.25 -0.71 -17%
Position 3-5 13 (31%) 5 38 % 50.00 -20.11 -1.55 -40%
6+ (Undercard) 14 (33%) 10 71 % 41.00 21.45 1.53 52%

Mystic Mac Predictions: Profit by Weight Class

  Picks Correct % Correct Units Bet Units Profit Profit per Pick ROI
Heavyweight 3 (7%) 2 67 % 19.00 -2.63 -0.88 -14%
Light Heavy 5 (12%) 2 40 % 10.00 0.57 0.11 6%
Middleweight 4 (10%) 2 50 % 16.50 -1.13 -0.28 -7%
Welterweight 9 (21%) 4 44 % 25.00 -8.65 -0.96 -35%
Lightweight 8 (19%) 5 63 % 32.00 9.45 1.18 30%
Featherweight 2 (5%) 1 50 % 4.00 1.10 0.55 27%
Bantamweight 3 (7%) 0 % 6.00 -6.00 -2.00 -100%
Flyweight 3 (7%) 2 67 % 9.00 0.97 0.32 11%
               
Women's Fights 5 (12%) 2 40 % 24.00 -9.73 -1.95 -41%
Featherweight 1 (2%) 0 % 2.00 -2.00 -2.00 -100%
Bantamweight 1 (2%) 0 % 5.00 -5.00 -5.00 -100%
Bantamweight 1 (2%) 1 100 % 7.00 0.78 0.78 11%
Strawweight 2 (5%) 1 50 % 10.00 -3.50 -1.75 -35%

Props & Parlay Section Stats (Individual sections of this handicapper's parlays)

Straight picks within parlays

  Picks Correct % Correct
Big Favorites 5 (38%) 5 100 %
Slight Favorites 7 (54%) 3 43 %
Slight Underdogs 1 (8%) 1 100 %
Big Underdogs 0 (0%) 0 0 %
13 9 69 %

 

Props bets and props within parlays

  Picks Correct % Correct
>65% chance 0 (0%) 0 0 %
50-65% 6 (43%) 4 67 %
35-50% 3 (21%) 2 67 %
<35% chance 5 (36%) 0 0 %
14 6 43 %

Prop Bets and Props within Parlays: Bet Types

Prop Type Picks Correct % Correct Avg
Odds
Longest
Odds
Shortest
Odds
1U Bet (ROI %)
Over (e.g. 1.5 / 2.5 rnds) 4 (29%) 3 75 % 1.73 1.87Pick was correct 1.61Pick was correct 1.2 (30%)
Goes to Decision 1 (7%) 0 0 % 3.25 3.25Pick was incorrect 3.25Pick was incorrect -1.0 (-100%)
Fight Starts Round X 2 (14%) 2 100 % 2.10 2.40Pick was correct 1.87Pick was incorrect 2.3 (113%)
X Wins by Decision 3 (21%) 0 0 % 3.18 4.00Pick was incorrect 2.70Pick was incorrect -3.0 (-100%)
X Wins Inside Distance 2 (14%) 0 0 % 2.15 2.90Pick was incorrect 1.71Pick was incorrect -2.0 (-100%)
X Wins in Round X 1 (7%) 0 0 % 17.00 17.00Pick was incorrect 17.00Pick was incorrect -1.0 (-100%)
Others 1 (7%) 1 100 % 2.45 2.45Pick was correct 2.45Pick was correct 1.5 (145%)
14 6 43 % 2.37     -2.1 (-15%)

* 1U Bet (ROI %): Many of the picks will have been part of a parlay, however, as a rough guide to value / profitability, this figure supposes that the handicapper put a 1U bet on each of the picks individually, showing the profit / loss they would have made and the ROI %.

Tail Mystic Mac Predictions's bets

If you had tailed this handicapper's bets since they started logging their picks with us, it would have affected your betting bank balance as follows...

This is more accurate than simply X units total profit. Under that more basic system, 1 unit is equal to the same amount of theoretical dollars, whether it was the last event or 10 events ago. However, if a handicapper has 10 events profit in a row, their betting bank balance will be significantly larger for the 10th event and 1 unit will equal a LOT more than it did 10 events ago.

Date Event Bet Won ROI Fee 1 unit = Start End
29th Jul UFC 214 15 1.2 8% $10.00 $1,000.00 $1,012.26
2nd Sep UFC Fight Night Struve vs. Volkov 17 1.5 9% $10.12 $1,012.26 $1,027.02
9th Sep UFC 215 24 4.5 19% $10.27 $1,027.02 $1,072.79
16th Sep UFC Fight Night 116 Rockhold vs. Branch 36 -4.3 -12% $10.73 $1,072.79 $1,027.10
18th Nov UFC Fight Night 121 Sydney 13 8.5 65% $10.27 $1,027.10 $1,114.31
25th Nov UFC Fight Night 122 Bisping vs. Gastellum 7 -7.0 -100% $11.14 $1,114.31 $1,036.31
31st Dec UFC 219 27 -19.9 -74% $10.36 $1,036.31 $829.91
4th Feb UFC Fight Night 125 16 -1.6 -10% $8.30 $829.91 $817.00
19th Jan UFC on ESPN+ 1 10 2.5 25% $8.17 $817.00 $837.26
9th Feb UFC 234 6 -6.0 -100% $8.37 $837.26 $787.03
17th Feb UFC on ESPN 1 13 3.5 27% $7.87 $787.03 $814.55
2nd Mar UFC 235 12 -6.8 -57% $8.15 $814.55 $758.95


ROI % from starting bank balance: -24.11% (including fees)
*Note - we don't store historical fee amounts, so we assume the fees are the same as the handicapper charges now.

Mystic Mac Predictions: Last 20 Wins / Losses (Straight Picks)

Last 20 Wins

  Date Straight Pick Opponent Odds Bet Result    
1. Mar '19 Johnny Walker Misha Cirkunov 1.72 3 TKO, R1 (0:36) MMA Bookmaker
2. Feb '19 Paul Felder James Vick 2.00 5 U Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
3. Feb '19 Cynthia Calvillo Cortney Casey 1.30 5 U Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
4. Jan '19 Geoff Neal Belal Muhammad 1.57 1 U Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
5. Jan '19 Donald Cerrone Alexander Hernandez 2.62 1 TKO, R2 (3:43) MMA Bookmaker
6. Jan '19 Glover Teixeira Karl Roberson 1.80 3 Sub, R1 (3:21) MMA Bookmaker
7. Jan '19 Joseph Benavidez Dustin Ortiz 1.44 2 U Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
8. Feb '18 Thiago Santos Anthony Smith 1.33 5 TKO, R2 (1:3) View Pick Writeup MMA Bookmaker
9. Feb '18 Valentina Shevchenko Priscila Cachoeira 1.11 7 Sub, R2 (4:25) View Pick Writeup MMA Bookmaker
10. Dec '17 Matheus Nicolau Louis Smolka 1.42 5 U Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
11. Nov '17 Belal Muhammad Tim Means 2.85 3 Split Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
12. Nov '17 Fabricio Werdum Marcin Tybura 1.29 10 U Decision (5 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
13. Sep '17 Anthony Smith Hector Lombard 1.74 5 TKO, R3 (2:33) MMA Bookmaker
14. Sep '17 Gilbert Burns Jason Saggo 1.67 5 TKO, R2 (4:55) MMA Bookmaker
15. Sep '17 Kajan Johnson Adriano Martins 4.50 3 TKO, R3 (0:49) MMA Bookmaker
16. Sep '17 Mairbek Taisumov Felipe Silva 1.40 5 TKO, R1 (1:24) MMA Bookmaker
17. Sep '17 Alexander Volkov Stefan Struve 1.71 2 TKO, R3 (3:34) MMA Bookmaker
18. Jul '17 Brian Ortega Renato Moicano 2.55 2 Sub, R3 (2:59) MMA Bookmaker
19. Jul '17 Robbie Lawler Donald Cerrone 1.63 2 U Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
20. Jul '17 Tyron Woodley Demian Maia 1.49 2 U Decision (5 rounds) MMA Bookmaker



Last 20 Losses

  Date Straight Pick Opponent Odds Bet Result Hedge?    
1. Mar '19 Alejandro Perez Cody Stamann 2.50 1 U Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
2. Mar '19 Cody Garbrandt Pedro Munhoz 1.59 3 TKO, R1 (4:52) No MMA Bookmaker
3. Mar '19 Tyron Woodley Kamaru Usman 1.59 3 U Decision (5 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
4. Mar '19 Anthony Smith Jon Jones 6.50 1 U Decision (5 rounds) Yes MMA Bookmaker
5. Feb '19 Bryan Barberena Vicente Luque 4.00 1 TKO, R3 (4:54) Yes MMA Bookmaker
6. Jan '19 T.J. Dillashaw Henry Cejudo 1.48 2 TKO, R1 (0:32) No MMA Bookmaker
7. Feb '18 Eryk Anders Lyoto Machida 1.38 4 Split Decision (5 rounds) No View Pick Writeup MMA Bookmaker
8. Dec '17 Holly Holm Cristiane Justino 3.90 2 U Decision (5 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
9. Dec '17 Edson Barboza Khabib Nurmagomedov 3.35 5 U Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
10. Dec '17 Marc Diakiese Daniel Hooker 1.49 5 Sub, R3 (0:42) No MMA Bookmaker
11. Dec '17 Cynthia Calvillo Carla Esparza 1.38 5 U Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
12. Dec '17 Carlos Condit Neil Magny 1.61 5 U Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
13. Nov '17 Chase Sherman Shamil Abdurakhimov 2.15 7 TKO, R1 (1:24) No MMA Bookmaker
14. Sep '17 Tony Martin Olivier Aubin-Mercier 1.87 3 Split Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
15. Sep '17 David Branch Luke Rockhold 4.75 2.5 Sub, R2 (4:5) No MMA Bookmaker
16. Sep '17 Neil Magny Rafael dos Anjos 2.55 3 Sub, R1 (3:43) No MMA Bookmaker
17. Sep '17 Valentina Shevchenko Amanda Nunes 1.80 5 Split Decision (5 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
18. Sep '17 Bryan Barberena Leon Edwards 3.50 5 U Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
19. Jul '17 Daniel Cormier Jon Jones 3.10 1 TKO, R3 (3:1) No MMA Bookmaker
20. Jul '17 Jimi Manuwa Volkan Oezdemir 1.63 2 TKO, R1 (0:42) No MMA Bookmaker

* Hedge indicates that this handicapper also had a WINNING bet on the opponent. For example, they may have bet A to win straight up but with a hedge on the other fighter winning by decision.

Mystic Mac Predictions: Progress Chart

Chart

 

 
 
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