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Straight Pick Stats
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Picks |
Correct |
% Correct |
Units Bet |
Units Profit |
Profit per Pick |
ROI |
| Big Favorites |
7 (14%) |
5 |
71 % |
17.00 |
0.88 |
0.13 |
5% |
| Slight Favorites |
8 (16%) |
3 |
38 % |
22.00 |
-2.12 |
-0.26 |
-10% |
| Slight Underdogs |
27 (53%) |
15 |
56 % |
138.00 |
57.56 |
2.13 |
42% |
| Big Underdogs |
9 (18%) |
2 |
22 % |
42.00 |
-6.25 |
-0.69 |
-15% |
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Progress Chart
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Predictions UFC's MMA Handicapper Bio
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At Predictions UFC we are a small team of finance industry and insurance specialists who turn a profit wagering UFC events. We use mathematical algorithms that take advantage of trends and patterns to forecast expected return. Our model is one amongst many, but our results so far are positive.
THE PROBLEM
Most of us haven't the time for comprehensive research. To compensate we sometimes rely upon the opinions of experts, but they are very often wrong. Historical data of predictions at MMA Junkie, for example, show that staff picks - even their full-consensus selections - are frequently mistaken. Crowd-sourced data isn't any better. Tapology records hundreds of votes, though fighters with predicted success below 20% still win at almost every event. Unpredictability is the very nature of MMA fighting.
A SOLUTION
The problems we encounter in finance are much the same as in UFC betting. We don't know when a specific event will happen (stock movement, interest rate hike, catastrophic insurance event, etc) but we can measure how often it will usually occur over a period of time. We can predict a likely outcome within a large population. The law of large numbers and modern probability theory intertwine to assist here. The variables are relatively straightforward - expected insurance events, translated to expected outlay, offset by the premiums required to cover that outlay plus profit. This concept maps perfectly onto UFC wagering.
Will this particular underdog win, or will that favourite lose? They are questions that are very difficult to answer. A better question is how often do slight underdogs win, or how often do big favourites lose? The skill here is in putting that information into a model that correlates with finely tuned odds data coupled with proportional stakes (see Kelly Criterion). We play numbers, not fighters. We calculate expected return, not expected outcome. We bet like an economist and avoid the human pitfalls of gambling.
THE MODEL
The Model captures a number of bets each week that in the long run have proven to return a profit. Combined with a compound interest betting method, exponential profit is hoped for. It isn't an aim here to get the most picks correct. In fact over 50% of predictions from The Model will be wrong, and that's ok. Profit is still possible when the right odds are wagered.
PAID PICKS
We start posting our predictions early and hunt best odds as the event approaches. For the most part, we lay our bets when the best odds are available. The science behind our betting method is provided with paid picks.
PROFIT TO DATE
Starting with $1000 at Fight Night 166 (25 January 2020), using an exponential betting method (where 1 unit is 1% of our bankroll, adjusted weekly), our balance is:
$1617 (at 16 March 2020)
Join us and take a share of the profit!
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Picks on Upcoming MMA Fights by Predictions UFC |
UFC 249, New York, 18th Apr '20
| Straight Pick |
Opponent |
Odds |
Unit Bet |
|
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| 1. Paid Pick (made 28 Mar 10:22 AM GMT) | Hidden | Hidden | Hidden |
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Buy Predictions UFC's MMA Picks! |
Click below to purchase this handicapper's paid picks for $6.00
You will be able to view any more paid picks they make between now and the next event for no extra charge.
The next event is
UFC 249 (18 Apr, 2020, 11:15 PM GMT)
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Predictions UFC's MMA Handicapper's Pick History
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Your $ bet per unit is set at $10. You can edit that value in your settings.
| Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets): |
|
38.00 |
6.83 |
$68.30 |
18% |
|
| Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets): |
|
24.00 |
5.92 |
$59.20 |
25% |
|
| Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets): |
|
39.00 |
2.90 |
$29.00 |
7% |
|
| Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets): |
|
27.00 |
-14.50 |
$-145.00 |
-54% |
|
| Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets): |
|
26.00 |
23.91 |
$239.10 |
92% |
|
| Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets): |
|
17.00 |
29.21 |
$292.10 |
172% |
|
| Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets): |
|
25.00 |
1.55 |
$15.50 |
6% |
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Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
| Pr |
Tony Ferguson vs Donald Cerrone |
Fight doesn't go to decision |
W |
1.53 |
|
|
2 |
1.06 |
$10.60 |
53% |
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| Prop & Parlay Event Totals: |
|
2.00 |
1.06 |
$10.60 |
53% |
|
| Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets): |
|
25.00 |
-0.61 |
$-6.15 |
-2% |
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Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
| Pr |
Jimi Manuwa vs Aleksandar Rakic |
Fight doesn't go to decision |
W |
1.33 |
|
|
1 |
0.33 |
$3.30 |
33% |
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| Prop & Parlay Event Totals: |
|
1.00 |
0.33 |
$3.30 |
33% |
|
| Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets): |
|
8.00 |
-3.75 |
$-37.50 |
-47% |
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>>>> Showing Last 20 events: Click to view full history
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