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MMA Handicapper Profile: Predictions UFC

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Predictions UFC (Killbot2000)


MMA MHandicapper - Predictions UFC

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MMA Betting Stats Summary

Overall Stats

Straight Fight Picks

Props

Parlays

Right 27 (51%) Right 25 (49%) Right 2 (100%) Right 0 (nan%)
Wrong 26 (49%) Wrong 26 (51%) Wrong 0 (0%) Wrong 0 (nan%)
Avg Odds 2.07 Avg Odds 2.11 Avg Odds 1.42 Avg Odds nan
Units Bet 222.0 Units Bet 219.0 Units Bet 3.0 Units Bet 0.0
Avg Bet 4.19 Avg Bet 4.29 Avg Bet 1.50 Avg Bet nan
Units Profit 51.45 Units Profit 50.06 Units Profit 1.39 Units Profit 0.00
ROI % 23% ROI % 23% ROI % 46% ROI % nan%
View Handicapper's Stats

Straight Pick Stats

  Picks Correct % Correct Units Bet Units Profit Profit per Pick ROI
Big Favorites 7 (14%) 5 71 % 17.00 0.88 0.13 5%
Slight Favorites 8 (16%) 3 38 % 22.00 -2.12 -0.26 -10%
Slight Underdogs 27 (53%) 15 56 % 138.00 57.56 2.13 42%
Big Underdogs 9 (18%) 2 22 % 42.00 -6.25 -0.69 -15%
 

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Predictions UFC's MMA Handicapper Bio

At Predictions UFC we are a small team of finance industry and insurance specialists who turn a profit wagering UFC events. We use mathematical algorithms that take advantage of trends and patterns to forecast expected return. Our model is one amongst many, but our results so far are positive.

THE PROBLEM
Most of us haven't the time for comprehensive research. To compensate we sometimes rely upon the opinions of experts, but they are very often wrong. Historical data of predictions at MMA Junkie, for example, show that staff picks - even their full-consensus selections - are frequently mistaken. Crowd-sourced data isn't any better. Tapology records hundreds of votes, though fighters with predicted success below 20% still win at almost every event. Unpredictability is the very nature of MMA fighting.

A SOLUTION
The problems we encounter in finance are much the same as in UFC betting. We don't know when a specific event will happen (stock movement, interest rate hike, catastrophic insurance event, etc) but we can measure how often it will usually occur over a period of time. We can predict a likely outcome within a large population. The law of large numbers and modern probability theory intertwine to assist here. The variables are relatively straightforward - expected insurance events, translated to expected outlay, offset by the premiums required to cover that outlay plus profit. This concept maps perfectly onto UFC wagering.

Will this particular underdog win, or will that favourite lose? They are questions that are very difficult to answer. A better question is how often do slight underdogs win, or how often do big favourites lose? The skill here is in putting that information into a model that correlates with finely tuned odds data coupled with proportional stakes (see Kelly Criterion). We play numbers, not fighters. We calculate expected return, not expected outcome. We bet like an economist and avoid the human pitfalls of gambling.

THE MODEL
The Model captures a number of bets each week that in the long run have proven to return a profit. Combined with a compound interest betting method, exponential profit is hoped for. It isn't an aim here to get the most picks correct. In fact over 50% of predictions from The Model will be wrong, and that's ok. Profit is still possible when the right odds are wagered.

PAID PICKS
We start posting our predictions early and hunt best odds as the event approaches. For the most part, we lay our bets when the best odds are available. The science behind our betting method is provided with paid picks.

PROFIT TO DATE
Starting with $1000 at Fight Night 166 (25 January 2020), using an exponential betting method (where 1 unit is 1% of our bankroll, adjusted weekly), our balance is:

$1617 (at 16 March 2020)

Join us and take a share of the profit!
 

Picks on Upcoming MMA Fights by Predictions UFC

UFC 249, New York, 18th Apr '20

Straight Pick Opponent Odds Unit Bet    
1. Paid Pick (made 28 Mar 10:22 AM GMT)HiddenHiddenHidden



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The next event is UFC 249 (18 Apr, 2020, 11:15 PM GMT)

Predictions UFC's MMA Handicapper's Pick History


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UFC Fight Night 170, Brasilia, 14th Mar '20

Pick Opponent   Odds Unit
Bet
Unit
Profit
Cash
Profit
ROI  
Demian Maia Gilbert Burns L 2.70 4 -4.00 $-40.00 -100% Bet Info
Nikita Krylov Johnny Walker W 2.28 4 5.12 $51.20 128% Bet Info
John Makdessi Francisco Trinaldo L 2.53 4 -4.00 $-40.00 -100% Bet Info
Brandon Moreno Jussier Formiga W 2.53 7 10.71 $107.10 153% Bet Info
Alexey Kunchenko Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos L 2.25 4 -4.00 $-40.00 -100% Bet Info
Rani Yahya Enrique Barzola D 2.64 7 0.00 $0.00 0% Bet Info
Bruno Silva David Dvorak L 2.30 4 -4.00 $-40.00 -100% Bet Info
Bea Malecki Veronica Macedo W 2.75 4 7.00 $70.00 175% Bet Info
Straight Pick Event Totals:   2.48 38.00 6.83 $68.30 18%  
Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets):   38.00 6.83 $68.30 18%  

UFC 248, Las Vegas, 8th Mar '20

Pick Opponent   Odds Unit
Bet
Unit
Profit
Cash
Profit
ROI  
Yoel Romero Israel Adesanya L 3.46 4 -4.00 $-40.00 -100% Bet Info
Neil Magny Li Jingliang W 2.53 4 6.12 $61.20 153% Bet Info
Max Griffin Alex Oliveira L 2.30 4 -4.00 $-40.00 -100% Bet Info
Gerald Meerschaert Deron Winn W 2.25 4 5.00 $50.00 125% Bet Info
Giga Chikadze Jamall Emmers W 2.70 4 6.80 $68.00 170% Bet Info
Guido Cannetti Danaa Batgerel L 2.28 4 -4.00 $-40.00 -100% Bet Info
Straight Pick Event Totals:   2.53 24.00 5.92 $59.20 25%  
Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets):   24.00 5.92 $59.20 25%  

UFC Fight Night, Norfolk, 29th Feb '20

Pick Opponent   Odds Unit
Bet
Unit
Profit
Cash
Profit
ROI  
Deiveson Figueiredo Joseph Benavidez W 2.20 7 8.40 $84.00 120% Bet Info
Ion Cutelaba Magomed Ankalaev L 3.21 4 -4.00 $-40.00 -100% Bet Info
Norma Dumont Megan Anderson L 3.00 4 -4.00 $-40.00 -100% Bet Info
Gabriel Silva Kyler Phillips L 1.94 5 -5.00 $-50.00 -100% Bet Info
Brendan Allen Tom Breese W 2.00 7 7.00 $70.00 100% Bet Info
T.J. Brown Jordan Griffin L 2.15 7 -7.00 $-70.00 -100% Bet Info
Sean Brady Ismail Naurdiev W 2.50 5 7.50 $75.00 150% Bet Info
Straight Pick Event Totals:   2.35 39.00 2.90 $29.00 7%  
Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets):   39.00 2.90 $29.00 7%  

UFC Fight Night 168, Aukland, 22nd Feb '20

Pick Opponent   Odds Unit
Bet
Unit
Profit
Cash
Profit
ROI  
Jim Crute Michal Oleksiejczuk W 2.50 5 7.50 $75.00 150% Bet Info
Karolina Kowalkiewicz Yan Xiaonan L 3.45 5 -5.00 $-50.00 -100% Bet Info
Ben Sosoli Marcos Rogerio de Lima L 2.29 7 -7.00 $-70.00 -100% Bet Info
Joshua Culibao Jalin Turner L 2.83 5 -5.00 $-50.00 -100% Bet Info
Emil Meek Jake Matthews L 2.95 5 -5.00 $-50.00 -100% Bet Info
Straight Pick Event Totals:   2.75 27.00 -14.50 $-145.00 -54%  
Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets):   27.00 -14.50 $-145.00 -54%  

UFC Fight Night 167, Rio Rancho, 15th Feb '20

Pick Opponent   Odds Unit
Bet
Unit
Profit
Cash
Profit
ROI  
Jan Blachowicz Corey Anderson W 2.80 7 12.60 $126.00 180% Bet Info
Diego Sanchez Michel Pereira W 2.40 7 9.80 $98.00 140% Bet Info
Ray Borg Rogerio Bontorin W 1.93 7 6.51 $65.10 93% Bet Info
Jim Miller Scott Holtzman L 2.50 5 -5.00 $-50.00 -100% Bet Info
Straight Pick Event Totals:   2.36 26.00 23.91 $239.10 92%  
Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets):   26.00 23.91 $239.10 92%  

UFC 247, Houston, 9th Feb '20

Pick Opponent   Odds Unit
Bet
Unit
Profit
Cash
Profit
ROI  
Lauren Murphy Andrea Lee W 3.89 5 14.45 $144.50 289% Bet Info
Mario Bautista Miles Johns W 2.23 5 6.15 $61.50 123% Bet Info
Journey Newson Domingo Pilarte W 2.23 7 8.61 $86.10 123% Bet Info
Straight Pick Event Totals:   2.60 17.00 29.21 $292.10 172%  
Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets):   17.00 29.21 $292.10 172%  

UFC Fight Night 166, Raleigh, 25th Jan '20

Pick Opponent   Odds Unit
Bet
Unit
Profit
Cash
Profit
ROI  
Junior dos Santos Curtis Blaydes L 3.10 5 -5.00 $-50.00 -100% Bet Info
Michael Chiesa Rafael dos Anjos W 3.26 5 11.30 $113.00 226% Bet Info
Jordan Espinosa Alex Perez L 3.25 5 -5.00 $-50.00 -100% Bet Info
Hannah Cifers Angela Hill L 2.53 5 -5.00 $-50.00 -100% Bet Info
Brett Johns Tony Gravely W 2.05 5 5.25 $52.50 105% Bet Info
Straight Pick Event Totals:   2.75 25.00 1.55 $15.50 6%  
Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets):   25.00 1.55 $15.50 6%  

UFC 238, Chicago, 8th Jun '19

Pick Opponent   Odds Unit
Bet
Unit
Profit
Cash
Profit
ROI  
Marlon Moraes Henry Cejudo L 1.66 3 -3.00 $-30.00 -100% Bet Info
Valentina Shevchenko Jessica Eye W 1.07 5 0.35 $3.55 7% Bet Info
Tony Ferguson Donald Cerrone W 1.57 3 1.71 $17.10 57% Bet Info
Petr Yan Jimmie Rivera W 1.30 3 0.90 $9.00 30% Bet Info
Tatiana Suarez Nina Ansaroff W 1.14 5 0.70 $7.00 14% Bet Info
Pedro Munhoz Aljamain Sterling L 2.20 3 -3.00 $-30.00 -100% Bet Info
Calvin Kattar Ricardo Lamas W 1.66 1 0.66 $6.60 66% Bet Info
Straight Pick Event Totals:   1.44 23.00 -1.67 $-16.75 -7%  
  Fight Pick   Odds
Pr Tony Ferguson vs Donald Cerrone Fight doesn't go to decision W 1.53
  2 1.06 $10.60 53% Bet Info
Prop & Parlay Event Totals:   2.00 1.06 $10.60 53%  
Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets):   25.00 -0.61 $-6.15 -2%  

UFC Fight Night 153, Stockholm, 1st Jun '19

Pick Opponent   Odds Unit
Bet
Unit
Profit
Cash
Profit
ROI  
Alexander Gustafsson Anthony Smith L 1.30 1 -1.00 $-10.00 -100% Bet Info
Aleksandar Rakic Jimi Manuwa W 1.45 1 0.45 $4.50 45% Bet Info
Damir Hadzovic Christos Giagos L 1.57 1 -1.00 $-10.00 -100% Bet Info
Sung Bin Jo Daniel Teymur L 1.70 1 -1.00 $-10.00 -100% Bet Info
Tonya Evinger Lina Lansberg L 1.33 1 -1.00 $-10.00 -100% Bet Info
Leonardo Santos Stevie Ray W 1.47 1 0.47 $4.70 47% Bet Info
Darko Stosic Devin Clark L 1.90 1 -1.00 $-10.00 -100% Bet Info
Straight Pick Event Totals:   1.51 7.00 -4.08 $-40.80 -58%  
  Fight Pick   Odds
Pr Jimi Manuwa vs Aleksandar Rakic Fight doesn't go to decision W 1.33
  1 0.33 $3.30 33% Bet Info
Prop & Parlay Event Totals:   1.00 0.33 $3.30 33%  
Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets):   8.00 -3.75 $-37.50 -47%  



>>>> Showing Last 20 events: Click to view full history

 
 
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