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Straight Pick Stats
|
| |
Picks |
Correct |
% Correct |
Units Bet |
Units Profit |
Profit per Pick |
ROI |
| Big Favorites |
8 (5%) |
5 |
63 % |
22.00 |
-4.13 |
-0.52 |
-19% |
| Slight Favorites |
10 (6%) |
4 |
40 % |
35.00 |
-1.47 |
-0.15 |
-4% |
| Slight Underdogs |
106 (69%) |
47 |
44 % |
491.00 |
55.51 |
0.52 |
11% |
| Big Underdogs |
30 (19%) |
4 |
13 % |
121.00 |
-54.27 |
-1.81 |
-45% |
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Progress Chart
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Click here to view breakdown of straight picks |
Predictions UFC's MMA Handicapper Bio
|
Welcome to Predictions UFC.
We are a small team of finance industry and insurance specialists.
Economics and long-term forecasting drive our tips.
The law of large numbers and modern probability theory underpin our predictions.
We play numbers, not fighters.
We calculate expected return, not expected outcome.
We bet like an economist and avoid the human pitfalls of gambling.
We recognise that money needs to be put in difficult places to achieve positive growth.
Managing risk to reward is our speciality.
Follow us for a share of the action!
PROPS CALCULATOR
Our proposition calculator is a statistical algorithm that calculates the likelihood of a decision. It compares available odds, and makes picks when there is a profitable margin. This model has returned huge profit using data from the last 14 months!
** PAID PICKS: We reveal calculated percentage probabilities for both finish and decision for every fight with paid picks. We also reveal links to industry-leading articles about our method.
PROFIT TO DATE
Starting with $1000 at Fight Night 166 (25 January 2020), using an exponential betting method (where 1 unit is 1% of our bankroll, adjusted weekly), our balance is:
$1383 (at 14 September 2020)
31% ROI for props bets
Join us and take a share of the profit!
More about our rationale and method below.
___________________
THE PROBLEM
Most of us haven't the time for comprehensive research. To compensate we sometimes rely upon the opinions of experts, but they are very often wrong. Historical data of predictions at MMA Junkie, for example, show that staff picks - even their full-consensus selections - are frequently mistaken. Crowd-sourced data isn't any better. Tapology records hundreds of votes, though fighters with predicted success below 20% still win at almost every event. Unpredictability is the very nature of MMA fighting.
A SOLUTION
The problems we encounter in finance are much the same as in UFC betting. We don't know when a specific event will happen (stock movement, interest rate hike, catastrophic insurance event, etc) but we can measure how often it will usually occur over a period of time. We can predict a likely outcome within a large population. The variables are relatively straightforward - expected insurance events, translated to expected outlay, offset by the premiums required to cover that outlay, plus profit. This concept maps perfectly onto UFC wagering.
Will this particular underdog win, or will that favorite lose? They are questions that are very difficult to answer. A better question is how often do slight underdogs win, or how often do big favorites lose? How do they usually win (finish or decision)? The skill here is in putting that information into a model that correlates with finely tuned odds data coupled with proportional stakes (see Kelly Criterion).
THE MODEL
The Model captures a number of bets each week that in the long run have proven to return a profit. Combined with a compound interest betting method, exponential profit is expected. It isn't an aim here to get the most picks correct. Many will be wrong, and that's ok. Profit is still possible when the right odds are wagered.
PAID PICKS
Below is an example of what we provide each week with paid picks. We offer a calculated probability of outcome for every fight. We also offer the minimum odds where we would consider a bet.
FIGHT 2: Cerrone and Price
Doesn't go to decision: 68%
Goes to decision: 32%
Our preferred bet is: doesn't go to decision if bookie odds are better than 2.17 ( + 118 moneyline ) |
Picks on Upcoming MMA Fights by Predictions UFC |
|
This handicapper has made no picks on upcoming fights. |
Predictions UFC's MMA Handicapper's Pick History
|
Your $ bet per unit is set at $10. You can edit that value in your settings.
| |
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
| Pr |
Diego Sanchez vs Jake Matthews |
Fight goes to decision |
W |
1.71 |
|
|
8 |
5.68 |
$56.80 |
71% |
|
| |
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
| Pr |
William Knight vs Aleksa Camur |
Fight doesn't go to decision |
L |
1.43 |
|
|
9 |
-9.00 |
$-90.00 |
-100% |
|
| |
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
| Pr |
Kai Kara-France vs Brandon Royval |
Fight goes to decision |
L |
1.65 |
|
|
8 |
-8.00 |
$-80.00 |
-100% |
|
| Prop & Parlay Event Totals: |
|
25.00 |
-11.32 |
$-113.20 |
-45% |
|
| Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets): |
|
27.00 |
-13.32 |
$-133.20 |
-49% |
|
| |
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
| Pr |
Colby Covington vs Tyron Woodley |
Fight goes to decision |
L |
1.53 |
|
|
1 |
-1.00 |
$-10.00 |
-100% |
|
| |
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
| Pr |
Colby Covington vs Tyron Woodley |
Fight goes to decision |
L |
1.63 |
|
|
7 |
-7.00 |
$-70.00 |
-100% |
|
| |
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
| Pr |
Kevin Holland vs Darren Stewart |
Fight goes to decision |
W |
1.69 |
|
|
8 |
5.52 |
$55.20 |
69% |
|
| |
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
| Pr |
Johnny Walker vs Ryan Spann |
Fight doesn't go to decision |
W |
1.34 |
|
|
8 |
2.72 |
$27.20 |
34% |
|
| |
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
| Pr |
Journey Newson vs Randy Costa |
Fight doesn't go to decision |
W |
1.38 |
|
|
8 |
3.04 |
$30.40 |
38% |
|
| |
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
| Pr |
Mirsad Bektic vs Damon Jackson |
Fight doesn't go to decision |
W |
1.77 |
|
|
8 |
6.16 |
$61.60 |
77% |
|
| |
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
| Pr |
Tyson Nam vs Jerome Rivera |
Fight goes to decision |
L |
2.20 |
|
|
6 |
-6.00 |
$-60.00 |
-100% |
|
| |
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
| Pr |
Jordan Espinosa vs David Dvorak |
Fight doesn't go to decision |
L |
2.90 |
|
|
8 |
-8.00 |
$-80.00 |
-100% |
|
| |
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
| Pr |
Jessica-Rose Clark vs Sarah Alpar |
Fight goes to decision |
L |
1.32 |
|
|
8 |
-8.00 |
$-80.00 |
-100% |
|
| Prop & Parlay Event Totals: |
|
62.00 |
-12.56 |
$-125.60 |
-20% |
|
| Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets): |
|
73.00 |
-11.84 |
$-118.40 |
-16% |
|
|
| Pick |
Opponent |
|
Odds |
Unit
Bet |
Unit
Profit |
Cash
Profit |
ROI |
|
| Michelle Waterson |
Angela Hill |
W |
2.05 |
5 |
5.25 |
$52.50 |
105% |
|
| Straight Pick Event Totals: |
|
2.05 |
5.00 |
5.25 |
$52.50 |
105% |
|
| |
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
| Pr |
Michelle Waterson vs Angela Hill |
Fight goes to decision |
W |
1.42 |
|
|
4 |
1.68 |
$16.80 |
42% |
|
| |
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
| Pr |
Khama Worthy vs Ottman Azaitar |
Fight doesn't go to decision |
W |
1.40 |
|
|
8 |
3.20 |
$32.00 |
40% |
|
| |
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
| Pr |
Roxanne Modafferi vs Andrea Lee |
Fight goes to decision |
W |
1.30 |
|
|
8 |
2.40 |
$24.00 |
30% |
|
| |
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
| Pr |
Alan Patrick vs Bobby Green |
Fight goes to decision |
W |
1.50 |
|
|
8 |
4.00 |
$40.00 |
50% |
|
| |
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
| Pr |
Alexander Romanov vs Roque Martinez |
Fight doesn't go to decision |
W |
1.21 |
|
|
8 |
1.68 |
$16.80 |
21% |
|
| |
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
| Pr |
Sabina Mazo vs Justine Kish |
Fight goes to decision |
L |
1.36 |
|
|
8 |
-8.00 |
$-80.00 |
-100% |
|
| Prop & Parlay Event Totals: |
|
44.00 |
4.96 |
$49.60 |
11% |
|
| Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets): |
|
49.00 |
10.21 |
$102.10 |
21% |
|
| |
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
| Pr |
Ovince St Preux vs Alonzo Menifield |
Fight doesn't go to decision |
W |
1.44 |
|
|
8 |
3.52 |
$35.20 |
44% |
|
| |
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
| Pr |
Michel Pereira vs Zelim Imadaev |
Fight doesn't go to decision |
W |
1.63 |
|
|
8 |
5.04 |
$50.40 |
63% |
|
| |
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
| Pr |
Bartosz Fabinski vs Andre Muniz |
Fight doesn't go to decision |
W |
2.30 |
|
|
7 |
9.10 |
$91.00 |
130% |
|
| Prop & Parlay Event Totals: |
|
23.00 |
17.66 |
$176.60 |
77% |
|
| Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets): |
|
27.00 |
18.56 |
$185.60 |
69% |
|
| |
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
| Pi |
Bill Algeo vs Ricardo Lamas |
Lamas to win |
W |
1.34 |
| Pr |
Alexa Grasso vs Ji Yeon Kim |
Fight goes to decision |
W |
1.33 |
| |
|
Parlay Odds: |
1.78 |
|
|
8 |
6.26 |
$62.58 |
78% |
|
| |
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
| Pi |
Bill Algeo vs Ricardo Lamas |
Lamas to win |
W |
1.34 |
|
|
8 |
2.72 |
$27.20 |
34% |
|
| |
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
| Pi |
Bill Algeo vs Ricardo Lamas |
Lamas to win |
W |
1.34 |
| Pr |
Zak Cummings vs Alessio Di Chirico |
Fight goes to decision |
W |
1.53 |
| |
|
Parlay Odds: |
2.05 |
|
|
8 |
8.40 |
$84.02 |
105% |
|
| |
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
| Pi |
Bill Algeo vs Ricardo Lamas |
Lamas to win |
W |
1.34 |
| Pr |
Austin Springer vs Alex Caceres |
Fight goes to decision |
L |
1.59 |
| |
|
Parlay Odds: |
2.13 |
|
|
8 |
-8.00 |
$-80.00 |
-100% |
|
| |
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
| Pi |
Bill Algeo vs Ricardo Lamas |
Lamas to win |
W |
1.34 |
| Pr |
Polyana Viana vs Emily Whitmire |
Fight doesn't go to decision |
W |
2.20 |
| |
|
Parlay Odds: |
2.95 |
|
|
8 |
15.58 |
$155.84 |
195% |
|
| |
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
| Pi |
Bill Algeo vs Ricardo Lamas |
Lamas to win |
W |
1.34 |
| Pr |
Sean Brady vs Christian Aguilera |
Fight doesn't go to decision |
W |
1.91 |
| |
|
Parlay Odds: |
2.56 |
|
|
8 |
12.48 |
$124.75 |
156% |
|
| Prop & Parlay Event Totals: |
|
48.00 |
37.44 |
$374.38 |
78% |
|
| Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets): |
|
58.00 |
27.44 |
$274.38 |
47% |
|
| |
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
| Pr |
Mike Rodriguez vs Marcin Prachnio |
Under 2.5 rounds |
W |
1.40 |
|
|
1 |
0.40 |
$4.00 |
40% |
|
| |
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
| Pr |
Austin Hubbard vs Joe Solecki |
Over 2.5 rounds |
L |
1.31 |
|
|
1 |
-1.00 |
$-10.00 |
-100% |
|
| |
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
| Pr |
Matt Semelsberger vs Carlton Minus |
Under 2.5 rounds |
L |
2.60 |
|
|
1 |
-1.00 |
$-10.00 |
-100% |
|
| Prop & Parlay Event Totals: |
|
3.00 |
-1.60 |
$-16.00 |
-53% |
|
| Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets): |
|
12.00 |
-1.12 |
$-11.20 |
-9% |
|
| |
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
| Pr |
Stipe Miocic vs Daniel Cormier |
Fight doesn't go to decision |
L |
1.26 |
| Pi |
Chris Daukaus vs Parker Porter |
Daukaus to win |
W |
2.15 |
| |
|
Parlay Odds: |
2.71 |
|
|
4 |
-4.00 |
$-40.00 |
-100% |
|
| Prop & Parlay Event Totals: |
|
4.00 |
-4.00 |
$-40.00 |
-100% |
|
| Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets): |
|
13.00 |
-10.63 |
$-106.30 |
-82% |
|
| Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets): |
|
18.00 |
-18.00 |
$-180.00 |
-100% |
|
| Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets): |
|
17.00 |
7.60 |
$76.00 |
45% |
|
| Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets): |
|
32.00 |
-22.48 |
$-224.80 |
-70% |
|
| Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets): |
|
27.00 |
8.42 |
$84.20 |
31% |
|
| Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets): |
|
19.00 |
2.60 |
$26.00 |
14% |
|
| Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets): |
|
42.00 |
-8.47 |
$-84.70 |
-20% |
|
| Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets): |
|
15.00 |
0.78 |
$7.80 |
5% |
|
| Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets): |
|
44.00 |
14.06 |
$140.60 |
32% |
|
| Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets): |
|
24.00 |
-2.40 |
$-24.00 |
-10% |
|
| Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets): |
|
42.00 |
-24.50 |
$-245.00 |
-58% |
|
| Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets): |
|
31.00 |
5.15 |
$51.50 |
17% |
|
| Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets): |
|
34.00 |
-9.54 |
$-95.40 |
-28% |
|
| Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets): |
|
35.00 |
5.24 |
$52.40 |
15% |
|
>>>> Showing Last 20 events: Click to view full history
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