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MMA Handicapper Profile: Predictions UFC

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Predictions UFC (Killbot2000)


MMA MHandicapper - Predictions UFC

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MMA Betting Stats Summary

Overall Stats

Straight Fight Picks

Props

Parlays

Right 17 (61%) Right 15 (58%) Right 2 (100%) Right 0 (nan%)
Wrong 11 (39%) Wrong 11 (42%) Wrong 0 (0%) Wrong 0 (nan%)
Avg Odds 1.80 Avg Odds 1.83 Avg Odds 1.42 Avg Odds nan
Units Bet 101.0 Units Bet 98.0 Units Bet 3.0 Units Bet 0.0
Avg Bet 3.61 Avg Bet 3.77 Avg Bet 1.50 Avg Bet nan
Units Profit 50.31 Units Profit 48.92 Units Profit 1.39 Units Profit 0.00
ROI % 50% ROI % 50% ROI % 46% ROI % nan%
View Handicapper's Stats

Straight Pick Stats

  Picks Correct % Correct Units Bet Units Profit Profit per Pick ROI
Big Favorites 7 (27%) 5 71 % 17.00 0.88 0.13 5%
Slight Favorites 7 (27%) 3 43 % 17.00 2.88 0.41 17%
Slight Underdogs 8 (31%) 5 63 % 44.00 29.41 3.68 67%
Big Underdogs 4 (15%) 2 50 % 20.00 15.75 3.94 79%
 

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Predictions UFC's MMA Handicapper Bio

At Predictions UFC we are a small team of finance industry and insurance specialists who turn a profit wagering UFC events. We use mathematical algorithms that take advantage of trends and patterns to forecast expected return. Our model is one amongst many, but our results so far are positive.

THE PROBLEM
Most of us haven't the time for comprehensive research. To compensate we sometimes rely upon the opinions of experts, but they are very often wrong. Historical data of predictions at MMA Junkie, for example, show that staff picks - even their full-consensus selections - are frequently mistaken. Crowd-sourced data isn't any better. Tapology records hundreds of votes, though fighters with predicted success below 20% still win at almost every event. Unpredictability is the very nature of MMA fighting.

A SOLUTION
The problems we encounter in finance are much the same as in UFC betting. We don't know when a specific event will happen (stock movement, interest rate hike, catastrophic insurance event, etc) but we can measure how often it will usually occur over a period of time. We can predict a likely outcome within a large population. The law of large numbers and modern probability theory intertwine to assist here. The variables are relatively straightforward - expected insurance events, translated to expected outlay, offset by the premiums required to cover that outlay plus profit. This concept maps perfectly onto UFC wagering.

Will this particular underdog win, or will that favourite lose? They are questions that are very difficult to answer. A better question is how often do slight underdogs win, or how often do big favourites lose? The skill here is in putting that information into a model that correlates with finely tuned odds data coupled with proportional stakes (see Kelly Criterion). We play numbers, not fighters. We calculate expected return, not expected outcome. We bet like an economist and avoid the human pitfalls of gambling.

THE MODEL
The Model captures a number of bets each week that in the long run have proven to return a profit. Combined with a compound interest betting method, exponential profit is hoped for. It isn't an aim here to get the most picks correct. In fact over 50% of predictions from The Model will be wrong, and that's ok. Profit is still possible when the right odds are wagered.

PAID PICKS
$5 paid picks. We start posting our predictions early and hunt best odds as the event approaches. For the most part, we lay our bets when the best odds are available. The science behind our betting method is provided with paid picks.

PROFIT TO DATE
Starting with $100 at ESPN+24, using an exponential betting method, our balance is:

$162.51 (at ESPN+25)

Join us and take a share of the profit!
 

Picks on Upcoming MMA Fights by Predictions UFC

UFC Fight Night 168, Aukland, 22nd Feb '20

Straight Pick Opponent Odds Unit Bet    
1. Paid Pick (made 18 Feb 11:35 PM GMT)HiddenHiddenHidden
2. Paid Pick (made 11 Feb 03:47 AM GMT)HiddenHiddenHidden
3. Paid Pick (made 19 Feb 09:40 PM GMT)HiddenHiddenHidden



UFC Fight Night, Norfolk, 29th Feb '20

Straight Pick Opponent Odds Unit Bet    
4. Paid Pick (made 17 Feb 11:22 PM GMT)HiddenHiddenHidden
5. Paid Pick (made 15 Feb 11:02 PM GMT)HiddenHiddenHidden
6. Paid Pick (made 15 Feb 10:53 PM GMT)HiddenHiddenHidden



Buy Predictions UFC's MMA Picks! 

Click below to purchase this handicapper's paid picks for $5.00
You will be able to view any more paid picks they make between now and the next event for no extra charge.
The next event is UFC Fight Night 168 (22 Feb, 2020, 10:00 PM GMT)

Predictions UFC's MMA Handicapper's Pick History


Your $ bet per unit is set at $10. You can edit that value in your settings.

UFC Fight Night 167, Rio Rancho, 15th Feb '20

Pick Opponent   Odds Unit
Bet
Unit
Profit
Cash
Profit
ROI  
Jan Blachowicz Corey Anderson W 2.80 7 12.60 $126.00 180% Bet Info
Diego Sanchez Michel Pereira W 2.40 7 9.80 $98.00 140% Bet Info
Ray Borg Rogerio Bontorin W 1.93 7 6.51 $65.10 93% Bet Info
Jim Miller Scott Holtzman L 2.50 5 -5.00 $-50.00 -100% Bet Info
Straight Pick Event Totals:   2.36 26.00 23.91 $239.10 92%  
Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets):   26.00 23.91 $239.10 92%  

UFC 247, Houston, 9th Feb '20

Pick Opponent   Odds Unit
Bet
Unit
Profit
Cash
Profit
ROI  
Lauren Murphy Andrea Lee W 3.89 5 14.45 $144.50 289% Bet Info
Mario Bautista Miles Johns W 2.23 5 6.15 $61.50 123% Bet Info
Journey Newson Domingo Pilarte W 2.23 7 8.61 $86.10 123% Bet Info
Straight Pick Event Totals:   2.60 17.00 29.21 $292.10 172%  
Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets):   17.00 29.21 $292.10 172%  

UFC Fight Night 166, Raleigh, 25th Jan '20

Pick Opponent   Odds Unit
Bet
Unit
Profit
Cash
Profit
ROI  
Junior dos Santos Curtis Blaydes L 3.10 5 -5.00 $-50.00 -100% Bet Info
Michael Chiesa Rafael dos Anjos W 3.26 5 11.30 $113.00 226% Bet Info
Jordan Espinosa Alex Perez L 3.25 5 -5.00 $-50.00 -100% Bet Info
Hannah Cifers Angela Hill L 2.53 5 -5.00 $-50.00 -100% Bet Info
Brett Johns Tony Gravely W 2.05 5 5.25 $52.50 105% Bet Info
Straight Pick Event Totals:   2.75 25.00 1.55 $15.50 6%  
Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets):   25.00 1.55 $15.50 6%  

UFC 238, Chicago, 8th Jun '19

Pick Opponent   Odds Unit
Bet
Unit
Profit
Cash
Profit
ROI  
Marlon Moraes Henry Cejudo L 1.66 3 -3.00 $-30.00 -100% Bet Info
Valentina Shevchenko Jessica Eye W 1.07 5 0.35 $3.55 7% Bet Info
Tony Ferguson Donald Cerrone W 1.57 3 1.71 $17.10 57% Bet Info
Petr Yan Jimmie Rivera W 1.30 3 0.90 $9.00 30% Bet Info
Tatiana Suarez Nina Ansaroff W 1.14 5 0.70 $7.00 14% Bet Info
Pedro Munhoz Aljamain Sterling L 2.20 3 -3.00 $-30.00 -100% Bet Info
Calvin Kattar Ricardo Lamas W 1.66 1 0.66 $6.60 66% Bet Info
Straight Pick Event Totals:   1.44 23.00 -1.67 $-16.75 -7%  
  Fight Pick   Odds
Pr Tony Ferguson vs Donald Cerrone Fight doesn't go to decision W 1.53
  2 1.06 $10.60 53% Bet Info
Prop & Parlay Event Totals:   2.00 1.06 $10.60 53%  
Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets):   25.00 -0.61 $-6.15 -2%  

UFC Fight Night 153, Stockholm, 1st Jun '19

Pick Opponent   Odds Unit
Bet
Unit
Profit
Cash
Profit
ROI  
Alexander Gustafsson Anthony Smith L 1.30 1 -1.00 $-10.00 -100% Bet Info
Aleksandar Rakic Jimi Manuwa W 1.45 1 0.45 $4.50 45% Bet Info
Damir Hadzovic Christos Giagos L 1.57 1 -1.00 $-10.00 -100% Bet Info
Sung Bin Jo Daniel Teymur L 1.70 1 -1.00 $-10.00 -100% Bet Info
Tonya Evinger Lina Lansberg L 1.33 1 -1.00 $-10.00 -100% Bet Info
Leonardo Santos Stevie Ray W 1.47 1 0.47 $4.70 47% Bet Info
Darko Stosic Devin Clark L 1.90 1 -1.00 $-10.00 -100% Bet Info
Straight Pick Event Totals:   1.51 7.00 -4.08 $-40.80 -58%  
  Fight Pick   Odds
Pr Jimi Manuwa vs Aleksandar Rakic Fight doesn't go to decision W 1.33
  1 0.33 $3.30 33% Bet Info
Prop & Parlay Event Totals:   1.00 0.33 $3.30 33%  
Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets):   8.00 -3.75 $-37.50 -47%  



>>>> Showing Last 20 events: Click to view full history

 
 
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