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MMA Handicapper Profile: Best Guestimates

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Best Guestimates (BestGuestimates)


Mixed Martial Arts Management - Best Guestimates

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MMA Betting Stats Summary

Overall Stats

Straight Fight Picks

Props

Parlays

Right 140 (46%) Right 137 (47%) Right 1 (33%) Right 2 (40%)
Wrong 162 (54%) Wrong 157 (53%) Wrong 2 (67%) Wrong 3 (60%)
Avg Odds 2.19 Avg Odds 2.19 Avg Odds 2.17 Avg Odds 2.05
Units Bet 713.8 Units Bet 703.8 Units Bet 3.2 Units Bet 6.9
Avg Bet 2.36 Avg Bet 2.39 Avg Bet 1.05 Avg Bet 1.37
Units Profit 29.53 Units Profit 32.22 Units Profit -1.24 Units Profit -1.44
ROI % 4% ROI % 5% ROI % -39% ROI % -21%
View Handicapper's Stats

Straight Pick Stats

  Picks Correct % Correct Units Bet Units Profit Profit per Pick ROI
Big Favorites 38 (7%) 27 71 % 124.00 -12.46 -0.33 -10%
Slight Favorites 127 (24%) 80 63 % 178.77 30.00 0.24 17%
Slight Underdogs 264 (49%) 126 48 % 282.91 19.81 0.08 7%
Big Underdogs 110 (20%) 34 31 % 118.13 -5.13 -0.05 -4%
 

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Best Guestimates's MMA Handicapper Bio

Hi, I'm just an individual trying to improve every year. I feel i have been, however time will tell. I have a highly successful online poker background(when things were good in 2003-2008) and a decent traditional martial arts background. Not sure those 2 things help too much , however I do luv watching my UFC fights and have been enjoying the process well back to the WEC days. If I were to guess, and that is what I do on this site, I would say I'm half way to my highest potential. What my true present ROI is is literally impossible to say however It's much better than when I started 5 years ago. Much improved. The goal is to be well ahead of 20%. Last year was 44% ROI(Nov.21st 2020 to Nov.12th 2021)...

.....July 1st 2022- Things have cooled off in many ways this past 6 months. So being fairly even(actually -9.6% ROi) during this time feels..best described as a bit boring to be completely honest. However stayin somewhat close to even for the past year may not be the worst sign so I'm taking this time to resettle and improve. The biggest take away is that most of my big bets have been canceled and the rest have had mixed results.....LOOKING FOR BIGGER ADVANTAGES THIS YEAR>>>

Jan 1st 2023- starting off the new year and reflecting back on 2022 and 1 month prior(I'll stick with the calendar anual stats from here on for convenience). First half was a bit frustrating and a learning experience with an ROI of -9.6%. The second half of the year felt decently steady at +20.97% ROI. All bets combined leaves the years total at +10.7% ROI. It certainly fell well short of the year before, however one year certainly felt luckier than the other. All things considered, I don't feel bad about it at all and it leaves plenty of room for improvements.



 

Picks on Upcoming MMA Fights by Best Guestimates

UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spivak, Las Vegas, 4th Feb '23 View this capper's previous bets on/against fighters on this card



Props and Parlays     Unit Bet    
  Fight Pick Odds
PrPi Marcin Tybura vs Blagoy Ivanov Tybura wins by decision 2.70
  0.75 View Pick Writeup
  Fight Pick Odds
PrPi Marcin Tybura vs Blagoy Ivanov Tybura wins by decision 2.80
  0.25 View Pick Writeup




UFC 285, Las Vegas, 4th Mar '23 View this capper's previous bets on/against fighters on this card

Straight Pick Opponent Odds Unit Bet    
Ciryl Gane Jon Jones 1.80 1 View Pick Writeup MMA Bookmaker
Ciryl Gane Jon Jones 2.02 0.33 MMA Bookmaker
Ciryl Gane Jon Jones 2.10 0.33 MMA Bookmaker
Ciryl Gane Jon Jones 2.20 0.34 View Pick Writeup MMA Bookmaker Bet Info
Ciryl Gane Jon Jones 2.30 0.33 MMA Bookmaker



Best Guestimates's MMA Handicapper's Pick History


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UFC 283, Rio de Janeiro, 21st Jan '23

Pick Opponent   Odds Unit
Bet
Unit
Profit
Cash
Profit
ROI  
Glover Teixeira Jamahal Hill L 2.23 0.5 -0.50 $-5.00 -100% View Pick Writeup Bet Info
Glover Teixeira Jamahal Hill L 2.28 0.2 -0.20 $-2.00 -100% Bet Info
Brandon Moreno Deiveson Figueiredo W 2.00 2 2.00 $20.00 100% View Pick Writeup Bet Info
Brandon Moreno Deiveson Figueiredo W 1.95 0.5 0.48 $4.76 95% View Pick Writeup Bet Info
Mounir Lazzez Gabriel Bonfim L 2.58 0.5 -0.50 $-5.00 -100% Bet Info
Terrance McKinney Ismael Bonfim L 1.83 0.33 -0.33 $-3.30 -100% Bet Info
Straight Pick Event Totals:   2.12 4.03 0.95 $9.46 23%  
  Fight Pick   Odds
PrPi Paul Craig vs Johnny Walker Craig wins by submission L 4.75
  0.65 -0.65 $-6.50 -100% Bet Info
Prop & Parlay Event Totals:   0.65 -0.65 $-6.50 -100%  
Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets):   4.68 0.30 $2.96 6%  

UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Imavov, Las Vegas, 14th Jan '23

Pick Opponent   Odds Unit
Bet
Unit
Profit
Cash
Profit
ROI  
Ketlen Vieira Raquel Pennington L 1.91 0.33 -0.33 $-3.30 -100% View Pick Writeup Bet Info
Ketlen Vieira Raquel Pennington L 1.95 0.42 -0.42 $-4.20 -100% Bet Info
Ketlen Vieira Raquel Pennington L 1.81 0.25 -0.25 $-2.50 -100% View Pick Writeup Bet Info
Straight Pick Event Totals:   1.89 1.00 -1.00 $-10.00 -100%  
Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets):   1.00 -1.00 $-10.00 -100%  

UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Strickland, Las Vegas, 17th Dec '22

Pick Opponent   Odds Unit
Bet
Unit
Profit
Cash
Profit
ROI  
Jared Cannonier Sean Strickland W 1.95 0.75 0.71 $7.14 95% Bet Info
Jared Cannonier Sean Strickland W 1.95 1.25 1.19 $11.90 95% Bet Info
Jared Cannonier Sean Strickland W 1.95 0.76 0.72 $7.24 95% Bet Info
Jared Cannonier Sean Strickland W 2.07 0.74 0.79 $7.92 107% View Pick Writeup Bet Info
Jared Cannonier Sean Strickland W 2.08 0.5 0.54 $5.40 108% Bet Info
Straight Pick Event Totals:   2.00 4.00 3.96 $39.60 99%  
Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets):   4.00 3.96 $39.60 99%  

UFC 282, Las Vegas, 10th Dec '22

Pick Opponent   Odds Unit
Bet
Unit
Profit
Cash
Profit
ROI  
Darren Till Dricus Du Plessis L 2.65 0.5 -0.50 $-5.00 -100% Bet Info
Darren Till Dricus Du Plessis L 2.58 1.25 -1.25 $-12.50 -100% View Pick Writeup Bet Info
Bryce Mitchell Ilia Topuria L 2.80 1.25 -1.25 $-12.50 -100% View Pick Writeup Bet Info
Jay Perrin Raul Rosas Jr L 3.00 0.25 -0.25 $-2.50 -100% Bet Info
Joaquin Buckley Chris Curtis L 1.91 0.5 -0.50 $-5.00 -100% Bet Info
Straight Pick Event Totals:   2.53 3.75 -3.75 $-37.50 -100%  
Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets):   3.75 -3.75 $-37.50 -100%  

UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland, Orlando, 3rd Dec '22

Pick Opponent   Odds Unit
Bet
Unit
Profit
Cash
Profit
ROI  
Tai Tuivasa Sergey Pavlovich L 2.58 0.5 -0.50 $-5.00 -100% View Pick Writeup Bet Info
Tai Tuivasa Sergey Pavlovich L 2.67 0.25 -0.25 $-2.50 -100% Bet Info
Tai Tuivasa Sergey Pavlovich L 2.95 0.5 -0.50 $-5.00 -100% Bet Info
Straight Pick Event Totals:   2.72 1.25 -1.25 $-12.50 -100%  
Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets):   1.25 -1.25 $-12.50 -100%  

UFC Fight Night: Nzechukwu vs. Cutelaba, Las Vegas, 19th Nov '22

Pick Opponent   Odds Unit
Bet
Unit
Profit
Cash
Profit
ROI  
Jennifer Maia Maryna Moroz W 2.55 0.5 0.77 $7.75 155% Bet Info
Jennifer Maia Maryna Moroz W 2.55 1 1.55 $15.50 155% View Pick Writeup Bet Info
Jennifer Maia Maryna Moroz W 2.67 0.75 1.25 $12.53 167% Bet Info
Straight Pick Event Totals:   2.59 2.25 3.58 $35.77 159%  
Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets):   2.25 3.58 $35.77 159%  

UFC 281, New York, 12th Nov '22

Pick Opponent   Odds Unit
Bet
Unit
Profit
Cash
Profit
ROI  
Alex Pereira Israel Adesanya W 3.00 0.5 1.00 $10.00 200% View Pick Writeup Bet Info Bet Info
Alex Pereira Israel Adesanya W 3.00 0.25 0.50 $5.00 200% View Pick Writeup Bet Info
Straight Pick Event Totals:   3.00 0.75 1.50 $15.00 200%  
Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets):   0.75 1.50 $15.00 200%  

UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Lemos, Las Vegas, 5th Nov '22

Pick Opponent   Odds Unit
Bet
Unit
Profit
Cash
Profit
ROI  
Darrick Minner Yilan Sha L 2.87 1 -1.00 $-10.00 -100% Bet Info
Jinh Yu Frey Polyana Viana L 2.30 0.5 -0.50 $-5.00 -100% Bet Info
Straight Pick Event Totals:   2.55 1.50 -1.50 $-15.00 -100%  
Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets):   1.50 -1.50 $-15.00 -100%  

UFC 280, Abu Dhabi, 22nd Oct '22

Pick Opponent   Odds Unit
Bet
Unit
Profit
Cash
Profit
ROI  
Charles Oliveira Islam Makhachev L 2.65 0.65 -0.65 $-6.50 -100% View Pick Writeup Bet Info
Charles Oliveira Islam Makhachev L 2.60 0.65 -0.65 $-6.50 -100% Bet Info
Charles Oliveira Islam Makhachev L 2.62 0.5 -0.50 $-5.00 -100% Bet Info
Charles Oliveira Islam Makhachev L 2.62 0.7 -0.70 $-7.00 -100% Bet Info
Charles Oliveira Islam Makhachev L 2.50 0.75 -0.75 $-7.50 -100% Bet Info
T.J. Dillashaw Aljamain Sterling L 2.58 0.65 -0.65 $-6.50 -100% View Pick Writeup Bet Info
T.J. Dillashaw Aljamain Sterling L 2.60 1.35 -1.35 $-13.50 -100% Bet Info
T.J. Dillashaw Aljamain Sterling L 2.60 0.5 -0.50 $-5.00 -100% Bet Info
Beneil Dariush Mateusz Gamrot W 2.85 0.35 0.65 $6.47 185% Bet Info
Beneil Dariush Mateusz Gamrot W 2.85 0.15 0.28 $2.77 185% Bet Info
Manon Fiorot Katlyn Chookagian W 1.53 1 0.53 $5.26 53% Bet Info
Manon Fiorot Katlyn Chookagian W 1.50 0.5 0.25 $2.50 50% View Pick Writeup Bet Info
Manon Fiorot Katlyn Chookagian W 1.50 0.5 0.25 $2.50 50% Bet Info
Nikita Krylov Volkan Oezdemir W 1.63 0.5 0.32 $3.16 63% View Pick Writeup Bet Info
Nikita Krylov Volkan Oezdemir W 1.60 0.35 0.21 $2.10 60% Bet Info
Nikita Krylov Volkan Oezdemir W 1.60 0.15 0.09 $0.90 60% Bet Info
Straight Pick Event Totals:   2.10 9.25 -3.18 $-31.83 -34%  
  Fight Pick   Odds
Pi Manon Fiorot vs Katlyn Chookagian Fiorot to win W 1.54
Pi Lina Lansberg vs Karol Rosa Rosa to win W 1.42
    Parlay Odds:   2.18
  0.5 0.59 $5.91 118% Bet Info
Prop & Parlay Event Totals:   0.50 0.59 $5.91 118%  
Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets):   9.75 -2.59 $-25.92 -27%  

UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Araujo, Las Vegas, 15th Oct '22

Pick Opponent   Odds Unit
Bet
Unit
Profit
Cash
Profit
ROI  
Viviane Araujo Alexa Grasso L 3.01 0.33 -0.33 $-3.30 -100% View Pick Writeup Bet Info
Viviane Araujo Alexa Grasso L 3.10 0.33 -0.33 $-3.30 -100% Bet Info
Jacob Malkoun Nick Maximov W 2.14 1 1.14 $11.40 114% Bet Info
Jacob Malkoun Nick Maximov W 2.25 0.25 0.31 $3.13 125% Bet Info
Sam Hughes Piera Rodriguez L 2.42 0.45 -0.45 $-4.50 -100% Bet Info
Sam Hughes Piera Rodriguez L 2.55 0.8 -0.80 $-8.00 -100% Bet Info
Straight Pick Event Totals:   2.53 3.16 -0.46 $-4.57 -14%  
Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets):   3.16 -0.46 $-4.57 -14%  

UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan, Las Vegas, 1st Oct '22

Pick Opponent   Odds Unit
Bet
Unit
Profit
Cash
Profit
ROI  
Yan Xiaonan Mackenzie Dern W 2.80 0.35 0.63 $6.30 180% View Pick Writeup Bet Info
Yan Xiaonan Mackenzie Dern W 2.95 0.35 0.68 $6.83 195% View Pick Writeup Bet Info Bet Info
Yan Xiaonan Mackenzie Dern W 3.00 0.5 1.00 $10.00 200% Bet Info Bet Info
Yan Xiaonan Mackenzie Dern W 3.05 0.15 0.31 $3.07 205% Bet Info Bet Info
Brendan Allen Krzysztof Jotko W 2.05 0.5 0.53 $5.25 105% View Pick Writeup Bet Info
Brendan Allen Krzysztof Jotko W 2.10 0.5 0.55 $5.50 110% Bet Info
Straight Pick Event Totals:   2.58 2.35 3.70 $36.95 157%  
Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets):   2.35 3.70 $36.95 157%  

UFC 279, Las Vegas, 10th Sep '22

Pick Opponent   Odds Unit
Bet
Unit
Profit
Cash
Profit
ROI  
Nate Diaz Tony Ferguson W 2.25 1.5 1.88 $18.75 125% View Pick Writeup Bet Info
Johnny Walker Ion Cutelaba W 2.90 2 3.80 $38.00 190% View Pick Writeup Bet Info
Johnny Walker Ion Cutelaba W 2.85 2.1 3.88 $38.85 185% Bet Info
Johnny Walker Ion Cutelaba W 2.90 1.4 2.66 $26.60 190% Bet Info
Straight Pick Event Totals:   2.69 7.00 12.22 $122.20 175%  
Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets):   7.00 12.22 $122.20 175%  

UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Tuivasa, Paris, 3rd Sep '22

Pick Opponent   Odds Unit
Bet
Unit
Profit
Cash
Profit
ROI  
Nathaniel Wood Charles Jourdain W 2.28 1.75 2.24 $22.40 128% Bet Info
Christian Quinonez Khalid Taha W 2.04 1.75 1.82 $18.20 104% Bet Info
Straight Pick Event Totals:   2.15 3.50 4.06 $40.60 116%  
Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets):   3.50 4.06 $40.60 116%  

UFC 278, Utah, 20th Aug '22

Pick Opponent   Odds Unit
Bet
Unit
Profit
Cash
Profit
ROI  
Luke Rockhold Paulo Costa L 4.15 0.75 -0.75 $-7.50 -100% View Pick Writeup Bet Info
Jose Aldo Merab Dvalishvili L 2.05 2 -2.00 $-20.00 -100% Bet Info
Jose Aldo Merab Dvalishvili L 2.22 0.5 -0.50 $-5.00 -100% Bet Info
Jose Aldo Merab Dvalishvili L 2.27 2.5 -2.50 $-25.00 -100% View Pick Writeup Bet Info
Straight Pick Event Totals:   2.47 5.75 -5.75 $-57.50 -100%  
Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets):   5.75 -5.75 $-57.50 -100%  

UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Hill, Las Vegas, 6th Aug '22

Pick Opponent   Odds Unit
Bet
Unit
Profit
Cash
Profit
ROI  
Vicente Luque Geoff Neal L 1.60 0.35 -0.35 $-3.50 -100% Bet Info
Straight Pick Event Totals:   1.60 0.35 -0.35 $-3.50 -100%  
  Fight Pick   Odds
Pi Michal Oleksiejczuk vs Sam Alvey Oleksiejczuk to win W 1.17
Pi Vicente Luque vs Geoff Neal Luque to win L 1.59
    Parlay Odds:   1.86
  1 -1.00 $-10.00 -100% Bet Info
Prop & Parlay Event Totals:   1.00 -1.00 $-10.00 -100%  
Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets):   1.35 -1.35 $-13.50 -100%  

UFC 277, Dallas, 30th Jul '22

Pick Opponent   Odds Unit
Bet
Unit
Profit
Cash
Profit
ROI  
Julianna Pena Amanda Nunes L 3.40 0.5 -0.50 $-5.00 -100% View Pick Writeup Bet Info
Derrick Lewis Sergey Pavlovich L 2.35 1.5 -1.50 $-15.00 -100% Bet Info
Anthony Smith Magomed Ankalaev L 5.40 0.25 -0.25 $-2.50 -100% Bet Info
Matt Semelsberger Alex Morono L 1.69 1.25 -1.25 $-12.50 -100% Bet Info
Drew Dober Rafael Alves W 1.59 1 0.59 $5.92 59% Bet Info
Straight Pick Event Totals:   2.35 4.50 -2.91 $-29.08 -65%  
Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets):   4.50 -2.91 $-29.08 -65%  

UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall, London, 23rd Jul '22

Pick Opponent   Odds Unit
Bet
Unit
Profit
Cash
Profit
ROI  
Curtis Blaydes Tom Aspinall W 2.20 0.5 0.60 $6.00 120% View Pick Writeup Bet Info
Curtis Blaydes Tom Aspinall W 2.25 0.35 0.44 $4.38 125% Bet Info
Curtis Blaydes Tom Aspinall W 2.30 0.5 0.65 $6.50 130% Bet Info
Chris Curtis Jack Hermansson L 1.99 0.75 -0.75 $-7.50 -100% View Pick Writeup Bet Info
Chris Curtis Jack Hermansson L 1.98 0.75 -0.75 $-7.50 -100% Bet Info
Nikita Krylov Alexander Gustafsson W 1.55 0.5 0.28 $2.76 55% View Pick Writeup Bet Info
Nikita Krylov Alexander Gustafsson W 1.57 0.25 0.14 $1.43 57% Bet Info
Volkan Oezdemir Paul Craig W 2.20 2 2.40 $24.00 120% View Pick Writeup Bet Info Bet Info
Straight Pick Event Totals:   1.96 5.60 3.01 $30.07 54%  
Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets):   5.60 3.01 $30.07 54%  

UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rodriguez, Long Island, 16th Jul '22

Pick Opponent   Odds Unit
Bet
Unit
Profit
Cash
Profit
ROI  
Yair Rodriguez Brian Ortega W 2.50 0.35 0.53 $5.25 150% Bet Info
Michelle Waterson Amanda Lemos L 3.80 0.35 -0.35 $-3.50 -100% Bet Info
Michelle Waterson Amanda Lemos L 3.80 0.3 -0.30 $-3.00 -100% Bet Info
Shane Burgos Charles Jourdain W 1.65 1 0.65 $6.45 65% Bet Info
Shane Burgos Charles Jourdain W 1.65 0.5 0.32 $3.23 65% Bet Info
Straight Pick Event Totals:   2.33 2.50 0.84 $8.43 34%  
Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets):   2.50 0.84 $8.43 34%  

UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Fiziev, Las Vegas, 9th Jul '22

Pick Opponent   Odds Unit
Bet
Unit
Profit
Cash
Profit
ROI  
Rafael dos Anjos Rafael Fiziev L 2.93 0.25 -0.25 $-2.50 -100% Bet Info
Antonina Shevchenko Cortney Casey W 1.61 0.5 0.31 $3.07 61% Bet Info
Straight Pick Event Totals:   2.08 0.75 0.06 $0.57 8%  
  Fight Pick   Odds
Pi Said Nurmagomedov vs Douglas Silva de Andrade Nurmagomedov to win W 1.33
Pi Caio Borralho vs Armen Petrosyan Borralho to win W 1.44
    Parlay Odds:   1.92
  2.25 2.07 $20.66 92% Bet Info
Prop & Parlay Event Totals:   2.25 2.07 $20.66 92%  
Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets):   3.00 2.12 $21.22 71%  

UFC 276, Las Vegas, 2nd Jul '22

Pick Opponent   Odds Unit
Bet
Unit
Profit
Cash
Profit
ROI  
Jared Cannonier Israel Adesanya L 5.10 0.5 -0.50 $-5.00 -100% Bet Info
Max Holloway Alex Volkanovski L 2.70 0.5 -0.50 $-5.00 -100% Bet Info
Alex Pereira Sean Strickland W 2.12 0.25 0.28 $2.80 112% Bet Info
Robbie Lawler Bryan Barberena L 1.91 0.5 -0.50 $-5.00 -100% Bet Info
Jalin Turner Brad Riddell W 1.71 1.5 1.07 $10.71 71% Bet Info
Jalin Turner Brad Riddell W 1.73 0.75 0.55 $5.47 73% Bet Info
Straight Pick Event Totals:   2.20 4.00 0.40 $3.99 10%  
Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets):   4.00 0.40 $3.99 10%  



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