|
|
Straight Pick Stats
|
|
Picks |
Correct |
% Correct |
Units Bet |
Units Profit |
Profit per Pick |
ROI |
Big Favorites |
54 (6%) |
41 |
76 % |
133.55 |
-9.60 |
-0.18 |
-7% |
Slight Favorites |
212 (25%) |
117 |
55 % |
219.13 |
24.15 |
0.11 |
11% |
Slight Underdogs |
428 (51%) |
199 |
46 % |
353.38 |
25.72 |
0.06 |
7% |
Big Underdogs |
148 (18%) |
41 |
28 % |
128.38 |
-9.42 |
-0.06 |
-7% |
|
Progress Chart
|
Click here to view breakdown of straight picks |
Best Guestimates's MMA Handicapper Bio
|
Hi, I'm just an individual trying to improve every year. I feel i have been, however time will tell. I have a highly successful online poker background(when things were good in 2003-2008) and a decent traditional martial arts background. Not sure those 2 things help too much , however I do luv watching my UFC fights and have been enjoying the process well back to the WEC days. If I were to guess, and that is what I do on this site, I would say I'm half way to my highest potential. What my true present ROI is is literally impossible to say however It's much better than when I started 5 years ago. Much improved. The goal is to be well ahead of 20%. Last year was 44% ROI(Nov.21st 2020 to Nov.12th 2021)...
.....July 1st 2022- Things have cooled off in many ways this past 6 months. So being fairly even(actually -9.6% ROi) during this time feels..best described as a bit boring to be completely honest. However stayin somewhat close to even for the past year may not be the worst sign so I'm taking this time to resettle and improve. The biggest take away is that most of my big bets have been canceled and the rest have had mixed results.....LOOKING FOR BIGGER ADVANTAGES THIS YEAR>>>
Jan 1st 2023- starting off the new year and reflecting back on 2022 and 1 month prior(I'll stick with the calendar anual stats from here on for convenience). First half was a bit frustrating and a learning experience with an ROI of -9.6%. The second half of the year felt decently steady at +20.97% ROI. All bets combined leaves the years total at +10.7% ROI. It certainly fell well short of the year before, however one year certainly felt luckier than the other. All things considered, I don't feel bad about it at all and it leaves plenty of room for improvements.
JAN 1st 2024- Keeping this year's reflection simple. Roi ended at 11% which is ok. Also tracking my running ROI since Nov 20th 2020 which ended this year at 19.73%. Also increased bets and units by about 16% from previous year. Goal this year is to considerably increase amount of units and picks while also working more on prop picks.
....and posting write ups earlier than day of the event.
|
Picks on Upcoming MMA Fights by Best Guestimates |
UFC 300, Las Vegas, Nevada, 13th Apr '24
|
Best Guestimates's MMA Handicapper's Pick History
|
Your $ bet per unit is set at $10. You can edit that value in your settings.
|
Pick |
Opponent |
|
Odds |
Unit
Bet |
Unit
Profit |
Cash
Profit |
ROI |
|
Kennedy Nzechukwu |
Ovince St Preux |
L |
1.51 |
0.7 |
-0.70 |
$-7.00 |
-100% |
|
Straight Pick Event Totals: |
|
1.51 |
0.70 |
-0.70 |
$-7.00 |
-100% |
|
Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets): |
|
0.70 |
-0.70 |
$-7.00 |
-100% |
|
Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets): |
|
11.90 |
-5.87 |
$-58.66 |
-49% |
|
Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets): |
|
0.80 |
1.20 |
$12.04 |
150% |
|
|
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
PrPi |
Alex Volkanovski vs Ilia Topuria |
Volkanovski wins (Decision Only) |
NA |
1.63 |
|
|
2 |
0.00 |
$0.00 |
0% |
|
Prop & Parlay Event Totals: |
|
2.00 |
0.00 |
$0.00 |
0% |
|
Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets): |
|
11.01 |
-2.62 |
$-26.18 |
-24% |
|
|
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
PrPi |
Jack Hermansson vs Joe Pyfer |
Hermansson wins by sub round 5 |
L |
41.00 |
|
|
0.1 |
-0.10 |
$-1.00 |
-100% |
|
|
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
PrPi |
Jack Hermansson vs Joe Pyfer |
Hermansson wins by sub round 4 |
L |
34.00 |
|
|
0.1 |
-0.10 |
$-1.00 |
-100% |
|
|
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
PrPi |
Jack Hermansson vs Joe Pyfer |
Hermansson wins by sub round 3 |
L |
26.00 |
|
|
0.1 |
-0.10 |
$-1.00 |
-100% |
|
|
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
PrPi |
Bruna Brasil vs Loma Lookboonmee |
Brasil wins by submission |
L |
13.00 |
|
|
0.055 |
-0.06 |
$-0.55 |
-100% |
|
|
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
PrPi |
Jack Hermansson vs Joe Pyfer |
Hermansson wins in round 3 |
L |
24.00 |
|
|
0.1 |
-0.10 |
$-1.00 |
-100% |
|
|
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
PrPi |
Jack Hermansson vs Joe Pyfer |
Hermansson wins in round 4 |
L |
30.00 |
|
|
0.1 |
-0.10 |
$-1.00 |
-100% |
|
|
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
PrPi |
Jack Hermansson vs Joe Pyfer |
Hermansson wins in round 5 |
L |
37.00 |
|
|
0.1 |
-0.10 |
$-1.00 |
-100% |
|
Prop & Parlay Event Totals: |
|
0.66 |
-0.66 |
$-6.55 |
-100% |
|
Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets): |
|
1.46 |
0.00 |
$0.03 |
0% |
|
|
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
Pr |
Roman Dolidze vs Nassourdine Imavov |
Over 2.5 rounds |
W |
2.00 |
|
|
0.75 |
0.75 |
$7.50 |
100% |
|
Prop & Parlay Event Totals: |
|
0.75 |
0.75 |
$7.50 |
100% |
|
Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets): |
|
2.25 |
0.58 |
$5.77 |
26% |
|
|
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
PrPi |
Sean Strickland vs Dricus Du Plessis |
Strickland wins in round 4,5 or by Dec |
L |
3.00 |
|
|
0.5 |
-0.50 |
$-5.00 |
-100% |
|
|
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
Pi |
Neil Magny vs Mike Malott |
Malott to win |
L |
1.29 |
Pi |
Jasmine Jasudavicius vs Priscila Cachoeira |
Jasudavicius to win |
W |
1.26 |
|
|
Parlay Odds: |
1.62 |
|
|
0.65 |
-0.65 |
$-6.50 |
-100% |
|
|
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
Pr |
Raquel Pennington vs Mayra Bueno Silva |
Fight doesn't go to decision |
L |
1.91 |
|
|
0.75 |
-0.75 |
$-7.50 |
-100% |
|
Prop & Parlay Event Totals: |
|
1.90 |
-1.90 |
$-19.00 |
-100% |
|
Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets): |
|
6.06 |
-5.09 |
$-50.88 |
-84% |
|
Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets): |
|
1.00 |
-1.00 |
$-10.00 |
-100% |
|
|
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
PrPi |
Irene Aldana vs Karol Rosa |
Aldana wins by TKO/KO |
L |
6.50 |
|
|
0.2 |
-0.20 |
$-2.00 |
-100% |
|
|
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
PrPi |
Irene Aldana vs Karol Rosa |
Aldana wins inside distance |
L |
4.25 |
|
|
0.07 |
-0.07 |
$-0.70 |
-100% |
|
|
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
Pr |
Paddy Pimblett vs Tony Ferguson |
Fight goes the distance |
W |
2.50 |
|
|
0.15 |
0.23 |
$2.25 |
150% |
|
|
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
PrPi |
Casey O'Neill vs Ariane Lipski |
Lipski wins by decision |
L |
3.50 |
|
|
0.25 |
-0.25 |
$-2.50 |
-100% |
|
|
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
PrPi |
Casey O'Neill vs Ariane Lipski |
Lipski wins by decision |
L |
3.50 |
|
|
0.25 |
-0.25 |
$-2.50 |
-100% |
|
|
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
PrPi |
Leon Edwards vs Colby Covington |
Edwards (scorecards = no action) |
NA |
1.55 |
|
|
0.5 |
0.00 |
$0.00 |
0% |
|
Prop & Parlay Event Totals: |
|
1.42 |
-0.55 |
$-5.45 |
-38% |
|
Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets): |
|
2.67 |
0.48 |
$4.84 |
18% |
|
|
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
Pr |
Khalil Rountree vs Anthony Smith |
Over 1.5 rounds |
W |
2.05 |
|
|
0.5 |
0.53 |
$5.25 |
105% |
|
|
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
Pr |
Khalil Rountree vs Anthony Smith |
Over 1.5 rounds |
W |
2.05 |
|
|
0.5 |
0.53 |
$5.25 |
105% |
|
|
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
Pr |
Khalil Rountree vs Anthony Smith |
Over 1.5 rounds |
W |
2.05 |
|
|
0.75 |
0.79 |
$7.88 |
105% |
|
|
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
Pi |
Yadong Song vs Chris Gutierrez |
Song to win |
W |
1.27 |
Pi |
Steve Garcia vs Melquizael Costa |
Costa to win |
L |
1.45 |
|
|
Parlay Odds: |
1.85 |
|
|
0.5 |
-0.50 |
$-5.00 |
-100% |
|
Prop & Parlay Event Totals: |
|
2.25 |
1.34 |
$13.38 |
59% |
|
Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets): |
|
2.74 |
0.85 |
$8.48 |
31% |
|
|
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
PrPi |
Sean Brady vs Kelvin Gastelum |
Gastelum wins by TKO/KO |
L |
3.85 |
|
|
0.2 |
-0.20 |
$-2.00 |
-100% |
|
|
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
Pr |
Deiveson Figueiredo vs Rob Font |
Fight goes the distance |
W |
2.00 |
|
|
1.25 |
1.25 |
$12.50 |
100% |
|
Prop & Parlay Event Totals: |
|
1.45 |
1.05 |
$10.50 |
72% |
|
Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets): |
|
8.30 |
-3.85 |
$-38.50 |
-46% |
|
Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets): |
|
1.90 |
-1.90 |
$-19.00 |
-100% |
|
|
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
Pr |
Jiri Prochazka vs Alex Pereira |
Over 1.5 rounds |
W |
1.77 |
|
|
0.35 |
0.27 |
$2.69 |
77% |
|
|
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
PrPi |
Tom Aspinall vs Sergey Pavlovich |
Aspinall wins by submission |
L |
5.00 |
|
|
0.25 |
-0.25 |
$-2.50 |
-100% |
|
Prop & Parlay Event Totals: |
|
0.60 |
0.02 |
$0.19 |
3% |
|
Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets): |
|
2.90 |
-1.02 |
$-10.24 |
-35% |
|
|
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
Pi |
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos vs Rinat Fakhretdinov |
Fakhretdinov to win |
NA |
1.31 |
Pi |
Kaue Fernandes vs Marc Diakiese |
Diakiese to win |
W |
1.54 |
|
|
Parlay Odds: |
2.01 |
|
|
0.4 |
0.22 |
$2.15 |
54% |
|
Prop & Parlay Event Totals: |
|
0.40 |
0.22 |
$2.15 |
54% |
|
Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets): |
|
3.39 |
3.53 |
$35.29 |
104% |
|
|
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
Pr |
Kamaru Usman vs Khamzat Chimaev |
Fight goes to decision |
W |
2.55 |
|
|
0.5 |
0.77 |
$7.75 |
155% |
|
|
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
Pi |
Said Nurmagomedov vs Muin Gafurov |
Nurmagomedov to win |
W |
1.49 |
Pi |
Islam Makhachev vs Alex Volkanovski |
Makhachev to win |
W |
1.40 |
|
|
Parlay Odds: |
2.08 |
|
|
0.5 |
0.54 |
$5.41 |
108% |
|
|
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
Pr |
Kamaru Usman vs Khamzat Chimaev |
Fight goes to decision |
W |
2.50 |
|
|
0.25 |
0.38 |
$3.75 |
150% |
|
|
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
Pr |
Nathaniel Wood vs Muhammadjon Naimov |
Fight doesn't go the distance |
L |
2.05 |
|
|
0.5 |
-0.50 |
$-5.00 |
-100% |
|
Prop & Parlay Event Totals: |
|
1.75 |
1.19 |
$11.91 |
68% |
|
Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets): |
|
2.65 |
1.45 |
$14.47 |
55% |
|
Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets): |
|
1.75 |
-0.87 |
$-8.65 |
-49% |
|
|
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
PrPi |
Montana De La Rosa vs J.J. Aldrich |
Aldrich wins by decision |
W |
2.55 |
|
|
0.5 |
0.77 |
$7.75 |
155% |
|
|
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
PrPi |
Abdul Razak Alhassan vs Joe Pyfer |
Pyfer wins by submission |
W |
6.50 |
|
|
0.35 |
1.92 |
$19.25 |
550% |
|
|
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
PrPi |
Montana De La Rosa vs J.J. Aldrich |
Aldrich wins by decision |
W |
2.60 |
|
|
0.25 |
0.40 |
$4.00 |
160% |
|
|
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
PrPi |
Karolina Kowalkiewicz vs Diana Belbita |
Belbita wins by submission |
L |
17.00 |
|
|
0.1 |
-0.10 |
$-1.00 |
-100% |
|
Prop & Parlay Event Totals: |
|
1.20 |
3.00 |
$30.00 |
250% |
|
Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets): |
|
5.70 |
4.86 |
$48.64 |
85% |
|
Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets): |
|
1.75 |
2.29 |
$22.90 |
131% |
|
|
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
Pr |
Kevin Holland vs Jack Della Maddalena |
Over 2.5 rounds |
W |
2.35 |
|
|
0.33 |
0.45 |
$4.46 |
135% |
|
|
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
PrPi |
Alexa Grasso vs Valentina Shevchenko |
Grasso wins by decision |
L |
4.60 |
|
|
0.4 |
-0.40 |
$-4.00 |
-100% |
|
Prop & Parlay Event Totals: |
|
0.73 |
0.05 |
$0.46 |
6% |
|
Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets): |
|
6.79 |
-4.41 |
$-44.15 |
-65% |
|
|
|
|