|
|
|
Straight Pick Stats
|
|
Picks |
Correct |
% Correct |
Units Bet |
Units Profit |
Profit per Pick |
ROI |
Big Favorites |
15 (13%) |
11 |
73 % |
118.65 |
15.10 |
1.01 |
13% |
Slight Favorites |
33 (29%) |
16 |
48 % |
251.55 |
-15.11 |
-0.46 |
-6% |
Slight Underdogs |
34 (30%) |
16 |
47 % |
265.50 |
46.14 |
1.36 |
17% |
Big Underdogs |
31 (27%) |
10 |
32 % |
221.00 |
34.67 |
1.12 |
16% |
|
Progress Chart
|
Click here to view breakdown of straight picks |
MMA Statistician's MMA Handicapper Bio
|
I am a mathematician/data scientist working in the online gambling industry. I've put together a statistical model to predict the outcome of UFC fights. This allows me to make predictions based solely on each fighters stats and history, without opinions, instinct or hype surrounding a fighter affecting the results.
I like to make straight bets on winners and over/under 1.5 and 2.5 round props, based on the calculated probabilities. I like to think of the 100 units available for each event to be percentages of my total bankroll for that event. For example, a 5 unit bet is 5% of your bankroll.
I use the Kelly betting criterion to decide how much to place on each fighter (up to 10% of bankroll by the site's design), and I place the rest on over/under props. I like to bet as close to the 100 unit total as possible.
Most profitable handicapper - UFC Fight Night 86, UFC 198, UFC 201
Follow me on Twitter @TheMMAStatistic, where I post free betting tips for each event. |
Picks on Upcoming MMA Fights by MMA Statistician |
This handicapper has made no picks on upcoming fights. |
MMA Statistician's MMA Handicapper's Pick History
|
Your $ bet per unit is set at $10. You can edit that value in your settings.
|
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
Pr |
Thiago Alves vs Jim Miller |
Over 2.5 rounds |
W |
1.80 |
|
|
3 |
2.40 |
$24.00 |
80% |
|
|
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
Pr |
Rafael Natal vs Tim Boetsch |
Over 2.5 rounds |
L |
2.00 |
|
|
3 |
-3.00 |
$-30.00 |
-100% |
|
|
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
Pr |
Michael Johnson vs Khabib Nurmagomedov |
Under 2.5 rounds |
L |
1.73 |
|
|
3 |
-3.00 |
$-30.00 |
-100% |
|
|
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
Pr |
Frankie Edgar vs Jeremy Stephens |
Over 2.5 rounds |
W |
1.57 |
|
|
3 |
1.71 |
$17.10 |
57% |
|
|
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
Pr |
Miesha Tate vs Raquel Pennington |
Over 2.5 rounds |
W |
1.57 |
|
|
3 |
1.71 |
$17.10 |
57% |
|
Prop & Parlay Event Totals: |
|
15.00 |
-0.18 |
$-1.80 |
-1% |
|
Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets): |
|
51.90 |
-20.08 |
$-200.80 |
-39% |
|
|
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
Pr |
Erik Perez vs Felipe Arantes |
Over 2.5 rounds |
W |
1.57 |
|
|
5 |
2.85 |
$28.50 |
57% |
|
|
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
Pr |
Beneil Dariush vs Rashid Magomedov |
Over 2.5 rounds |
W |
1.58 |
|
|
5 |
2.90 |
$29.00 |
58% |
|
Prop & Parlay Event Totals: |
|
10.00 |
5.75 |
$57.50 |
58% |
|
Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets): |
|
22.35 |
16.80 |
$168.00 |
75% |
|
|
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
Pr |
Leonardo Santos vs Adriano Martins |
Under 2.5 rounds |
L |
1.77 |
|
|
3 |
-3.00 |
$-30.00 |
-100% |
|
Prop & Parlay Event Totals: |
|
3.00 |
-3.00 |
$-30.00 |
-100% |
|
Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets): |
|
47.40 |
12.93 |
$129.33 |
27% |
|
|
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
Pr |
Neil Magny vs Lorenz Larkin |
Over 2.5 rounds |
L |
1.53 |
|
|
5 |
-5.00 |
$-50.00 |
-100% |
|
|
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
Pr |
Cody Garbrandt vs Takeya Mizugaki |
Over 2.5 rounds |
L |
2.20 |
|
|
5 |
-5.00 |
$-50.00 |
-100% |
|
|
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
Pr |
Donald Cerrone vs Rick Story |
Over 2.5 rounds |
L |
1.67 |
|
|
5 |
-5.00 |
$-50.00 |
-100% |
|
|
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
Pr |
Anthony Johnson vs Glover Teixeira |
Under 2.5 rounds |
W |
1.40 |
|
|
5 |
2.00 |
$20.00 |
40% |
|
|
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
Pr |
Raquel Pennington vs Elizabeth Phillips |
Over 2.5 rounds |
W |
1.45 |
|
|
5 |
2.25 |
$22.50 |
45% |
|
|
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
Pr |
Randa Markos vs Cortney Casey |
Over 2.5 rounds |
L |
1.44 |
|
|
5 |
-5.00 |
$-50.00 |
-100% |
|
Prop & Parlay Event Totals: |
|
30.00 |
-15.75 |
$-157.50 |
-53% |
|
Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets): |
|
65.70 |
-33.25 |
$-332.50 |
-51% |
|
|
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
Pr |
Dennis Bermudez vs Rony Jason |
Under 2.5 rounds |
L |
2.00 |
|
|
5 |
-5.00 |
$-50.00 |
-100% |
|
|
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
Pr |
Thales Leites vs Chris Camozzi |
Over 2.5 rounds |
W |
1.57 |
|
|
5 |
2.85 |
$28.50 |
57% |
|
|
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
Pr |
Zak Cummings vs Santiago Ponzinibbio |
Under 2.5 rounds |
L |
2.20 |
|
|
5 |
-5.00 |
$-50.00 |
-100% |
|
|
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
Pr |
Court McGee vs Dominique Steele |
Over 2.5 rounds |
W |
1.57 |
|
|
5 |
2.85 |
$28.50 |
57% |
|
|
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
Pr |
Cub Swanson vs Tatsuya Kawajiri |
Under 2.5 rounds |
L |
2.30 |
|
|
5 |
-5.00 |
$-50.00 |
-100% |
|
Prop & Parlay Event Totals: |
|
25.00 |
-9.30 |
$-93.00 |
-37% |
|
Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets): |
|
75.40 |
-46.73 |
$-467.25 |
-62% |
|
|
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
Pr |
Rose Namajunas vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz |
Over 2.5 rounds |
W |
1.50 |
|
|
5 |
2.50 |
$25.00 |
50% |
|
|
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
Pr |
Matt Brown vs Jake Ellenberger |
Under 2.5 rounds |
W |
1.30 |
|
|
5 |
1.50 |
$15.00 |
30% |
|
|
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
Pr |
Erik Perez vs Francisco Rivera |
Under 2.5 rounds |
L |
1.87 |
|
|
5 |
-5.00 |
$-50.00 |
-100% |
|
|
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
Pr |
Nikita Krylov vs Ed Herman |
Under 2.5 rounds |
W |
1.40 |
|
|
5 |
2.00 |
$20.00 |
40% |
|
|
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
Pr |
Ross Pearson vs Jorge Masvidal |
Over 2.5 rounds |
W |
1.43 |
|
|
5 |
2.15 |
$21.50 |
43% |
|
|
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
Pr |
Ryan Benoit vs Freddy Serrano |
Under 2.5 rounds |
L |
1.91 |
|
|
5 |
-5.00 |
$-50.00 |
-100% |
|
Prop & Parlay Event Totals: |
|
30.00 |
-1.85 |
$-18.50 |
-6% |
|
Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets): |
|
83.35 |
23.84 |
$238.40 |
29% |
|
|
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
Pr |
Eddie Wineland vs Frankie Saenz |
Over 2.5 rounds |
L |
1.53 |
|
|
5 |
-5.00 |
$-50.00 |
-100% |
|
|
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
Pr |
Darren Elkins vs Godofredo Pepey |
Over 2.5 rounds |
W |
1.70 |
|
|
5 |
3.50 |
$35.00 |
70% |
|
|
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
Pr |
Edson Barboza vs Gilbert Melendez |
Over 2.5 rounds |
W |
1.58 |
|
|
5 |
2.90 |
$29.00 |
58% |
|
Prop & Parlay Event Totals: |
|
15.00 |
1.40 |
$14.00 |
9% |
|
Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets): |
|
50.70 |
4.92 |
$49.25 |
10% |
|
|
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
Pr |
Tim Boetsch vs Josh Samman |
Under 2.5 rounds |
W |
1.74 |
|
|
5 |
3.70 |
$37.00 |
74% |
|
|
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
Pr |
Aleksei Oleinik vs Daniel Omielanczuk |
Over 2.5 rounds |
W |
2.70 |
|
|
5 |
8.50 |
$85.00 |
170% |
|
|
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
Pr |
Louis Smolka vs Ben Nguyen |
Over 1.5 rounds |
W |
1.61 |
|
|
5 |
3.05 |
$30.50 |
61% |
|
Prop & Parlay Event Totals: |
|
15.00 |
15.25 |
$152.50 |
102% |
|
Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets): |
|
50.15 |
22.28 |
$222.77 |
44% |
|
|
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
Pr |
Miesha Tate vs Amanda Nunes |
Over 0.5 rounds |
W |
1.57 |
|
|
5 |
2.85 |
$28.50 |
57% |
|
|
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
Pr |
Johny Hendricks vs Kelvin Gastelum |
Over 2.5 rounds |
W |
1.57 |
|
|
5 |
2.85 |
$28.50 |
57% |
|
|
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
Pr |
Cain Velasquez vs Travis Browne |
Under 2.5 rounds |
W |
1.40 |
|
|
5 |
2.00 |
$20.00 |
40% |
|
|
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
Pr |
T.J. Dillashaw vs Raphael Assuncao |
Over 2.5 rounds |
W |
1.47 |
|
|
3 |
1.41 |
$14.10 |
47% |
|
|
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
Pr |
Joe Lauzon vs Diego Sanchez |
Over 2.5 rounds |
L |
1.45 |
|
|
5 |
-5.00 |
$-50.00 |
-100% |
|
|
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
Pr |
Gegard Mousasi vs Thiago Santos |
Under 2.5 rounds |
W |
2.10 |
|
|
5 |
5.50 |
$55.00 |
110% |
|
|
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
Pr |
Jim Miller vs Takanori Gomi |
Over 2.5 rounds |
L |
2.60 |
|
|
4 |
-4.00 |
$-40.00 |
-100% |
|
Prop & Parlay Event Totals: |
|
32.00 |
5.61 |
$56.10 |
18% |
|
Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets): |
|
94.30 |
38.16 |
$381.60 |
40% |
|
|
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
Pr |
Jake Matthews vs Kevin Lee |
Under 2.5 rounds |
W |
2.50 |
|
|
5 |
7.50 |
$75.00 |
150% |
|
|
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
Pr |
Doo Ho Choi vs Thiago Tavares |
Under 2.5 rounds |
W |
1.32 |
|
|
5 |
1.60 |
$16.00 |
32% |
|
Prop & Parlay Event Totals: |
|
10.00 |
9.10 |
$91.00 |
91% |
|
Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets): |
|
25.40 |
11.40 |
$114.00 |
45% |
|
|
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
Pr |
Roy Nelson vs Derrick Lewis |
Over 1.5 rounds |
W |
2.62 |
|
|
5 |
8.10 |
$81.00 |
162% |
|
|
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
Pr |
Roy Nelson vs Derrick Lewis |
Over 2.5 rounds |
W |
4.00 |
|
|
5 |
15.00 |
$150.00 |
300% |
|
|
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
Pr |
Joseph Duffy vs Mitch Clarke |
Over 2.5 rounds |
L |
2.10 |
|
|
5 |
-5.00 |
$-50.00 |
-100% |
|
|
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
Pr |
Joseph Duffy vs Mitch Clarke |
Over 1.5 rounds |
L |
1.65 |
|
|
5 |
-5.00 |
$-50.00 |
-100% |
|
|
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
Pr |
Mike Pyle vs Alberto Mina |
Under 2.5 rounds |
W |
1.70 |
|
|
5 |
3.50 |
$35.00 |
70% |
|
Prop & Parlay Event Totals: |
|
25.00 |
16.60 |
$166.00 |
66% |
|
Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets): |
|
83.35 |
41.15 |
$411.49 |
49% |
|
|
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
Pr |
Donald Cerrone vs Patrick Cote |
Over 2.5 rounds |
W |
2.20 |
|
|
5 |
6.00 |
$60.00 |
120% |
|
|
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
Pr |
Jason Saggo vs Leandro Silva |
Over 2.5 rounds |
W |
1.53 |
|
|
5 |
2.65 |
$26.50 |
53% |
|
|
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
Pr |
Joe Soto vs Chris Beal |
Over 2.5 rounds |
W |
1.50 |
|
|
5 |
2.50 |
$25.00 |
50% |
|
|
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
Pr |
Ali Bagautinov vs Geane Herrera |
Over 2.5 rounds |
W |
1.40 |
|
|
5 |
2.00 |
$20.00 |
40% |
|
Prop & Parlay Event Totals: |
|
20.00 |
13.15 |
$131.50 |
66% |
|
Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets): |
|
67.20 |
-3.85 |
$-38.50 |
-6% |
|
|
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
Pr |
Max Holloway vs Ricardo Lamas |
Over 2.5 rounds |
W |
1.45 |
|
|
4 |
1.80 |
$18.00 |
45% |
|
|
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
Pr |
Dan Henderson vs Hector Lombard |
Over 1.5 rounds |
L |
2.75 |
|
|
4 |
-4.00 |
$-40.00 |
-100% |
|
|
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
Pr |
Dustin Poirier vs Bobby Green |
Over 2.5 rounds |
L |
1.57 |
|
|
4 |
-4.00 |
$-40.00 |
-100% |
|
|
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
Pr |
Alex Caceres vs Cole Miller |
Over 2.5 rounds |
W |
1.65 |
|
|
4 |
2.60 |
$26.00 |
65% |
|
|
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
Pr |
Beneil Dariush vs James Vick |
Under 2.5 rounds |
W |
2.62 |
|
|
4 |
6.48 |
$64.80 |
162% |
|
|
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
Pr |
Tom Breese vs Sean Strickland |
Over 2.5 rounds |
W |
1.53 |
|
|
4 |
2.12 |
$21.20 |
53% |
|
Prop & Parlay Event Totals: |
|
24.00 |
5.00 |
$50.00 |
21% |
|
Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets): |
|
77.80 |
46.70 |
$467.00 |
60% |
|
|
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
Pr |
Renan Barao vs Jeremy Stephens |
Over 2.5 rounds |
W |
1.72 |
|
|
3 |
2.16 |
$21.60 |
72% |
|
|
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
Pr |
Tarec Saffiedine vs Rick Story |
Over 2.5 rounds |
W |
1.36 |
|
|
3 |
1.08 |
$10.80 |
36% |
|
|
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
Pr |
Aljamain Sterling vs Bryan Caraway |
Over 2.5 rounds |
W |
1.44 |
|
|
3 |
1.32 |
$13.20 |
44% |
|
|
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
Pr |
Vitor Miranda vs Chris Camozzi |
Under 2.5 rounds |
L |
2.37 |
|
|
3 |
-3.00 |
$-30.00 |
-100% |
|
|
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
Pr |
Jorge Masvidal vs Lorenz Larkin |
Over 2.5 rounds |
W |
1.36 |
|
|
3 |
1.08 |
$10.80 |
36% |
|
|
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
Pr |
Josh Burkman vs Paul Felder |
Over 2.5 rounds |
W |
1.61 |
|
|
3 |
1.83 |
$18.30 |
61% |
|
|
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
Pr |
Erik Koch vs Shane Campbell |
Over 1.5 rounds |
W |
1.44 |
|
|
3 |
1.32 |
$13.20 |
44% |
|
Prop & Parlay Event Totals: |
|
21.00 |
5.79 |
$57.90 |
28% |
|
Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets): |
|
91.70 |
42.69 |
$426.90 |
47% |
|
|
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
Pr |
Mauricio Rua vs Corey Anderson |
Over 2.5 rounds |
W |
1.44 |
|
|
1.44 |
0.63 |
$6.34 |
44% |
|
|
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
Pr |
Warlley Alves vs Bryan Barberena |
Over 1.5 rounds |
W |
1.66 |
|
|
5 |
3.30 |
$33.00 |
66% |
|
Prop & Parlay Event Totals: |
|
6.44 |
3.93 |
$39.34 |
61% |
|
Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets): |
|
46.44 |
-14.77 |
$-147.66 |
-32% |
|
|
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
Pr |
Rustam Khabilov vs Chris Wade |
Over 2.5 rounds |
W |
1.40 |
|
|
10 |
4.00 |
$40.00 |
40% |
|
|
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
Pr |
Dominic Waters vs Leon Edwards |
Over 1.5 rounds |
W |
1.57 |
|
|
10 |
5.70 |
$57.00 |
57% |
|
|
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
Pr |
Reza Madadi vs Yan Cabral |
Over 2.5 rounds |
L |
10.00 |
|
|
10 |
-10.00 |
$-100.00 |
-100% |
|
Prop & Parlay Event Totals: |
|
30.00 |
-0.30 |
$-3.00 |
-1% |
|
Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets): |
|
100.00 |
-31.20 |
$-312.00 |
-31% |
|
|
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
Pr |
Anthony Pettis vs Edson Barboza |
Over 2.5 rounds |
W |
1.83 |
|
|
3 |
2.49 |
$24.90 |
83% |
|
|
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
Pr |
Robert Whittaker vs Rafael Natal |
Over 2.5 rounds |
W |
2.00 |
|
|
3 |
3.00 |
$30.00 |
100% |
|
|
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
Pr |
Andre Fili vs Yair Rodriguez |
Over 2.5 rounds |
L |
1.57 |
|
|
3 |
-3.00 |
$-30.00 |
-100% |
|
|
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
Pr |
Sergio Pettis vs Chris Kelades |
Over 2.5 rounds |
W |
1.36 |
|
|
3 |
1.08 |
$10.80 |
36% |
|
|
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
Pr |
Kevin Lee vs Efrain Escudero |
Over 2.5 rounds |
W |
1.50 |
|
|
3 |
1.50 |
$15.00 |
50% |
|
Prop & Parlay Event Totals: |
|
15.00 |
5.07 |
$50.70 |
34% |
|
Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets): |
|
75.00 |
2.57 |
$25.70 |
3% |
|
Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets): |
|
40.00 |
-15.00 |
$-150.00 |
-38% |
|
Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets): |
|
40.00 |
38.50 |
$385.00 |
96% |
|
>>>> Showing Last 20 events: Click to view full history
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