| |
|
|
|
Straight Pick Stats
|
| |
Picks |
Correct |
% Correct |
Units Bet |
Units Profit |
Profit per Pick |
ROI |
| Big Favorites |
63 (31%) |
51 |
81 % |
315.00 |
48.46 |
0.77 |
15% |
| Slight Favorites |
59 (29%) |
27 |
46 % |
219.25 |
-62.72 |
-1.06 |
-29% |
| Slight Underdogs |
51 (25%) |
25 |
49 % |
71.90 |
1.62 |
0.03 |
2% |
| Big Underdogs |
28 (14%) |
8 |
29 % |
27.15 |
1.54 |
0.05 |
6% |
|
Progress Chart
|
|
Lock of the Night 's MMA Handicapper Bio
|
****PATREON PARLAY****
These will be 3-5 leg 0.25u bets every event. I would like to still track them but only have them available for my Patreon members. If you want to pay $25 to see what is in the parlay, by all means go for it.
Follow me @MMALOTN
I create betting and MMA-related content on a weekly basis on my YouTube channel. I also have a Patreon page for people are interested in bonus content!
Here is what a full week of FREE content looks like:
Monday - "Combatosseurs"
Combatosseurs is a free-flowing podcast I do with one of my best friends, Tony. There is no real set format other than we record the day after UFC events and try to dissect the fallout. Wherever the conversation goes, it goes!
Tuesday - "The MMA Lock-Cast"
The MMA Lock-Cast is my flagship podcast where I cover the upcoming UFC event from top to bottom with a focus on the betting side of things in about 55-70 minutes. With the introduction of my Patreon page, I will be covering all main card fights and 1 prelim fight on the podcast, the rest will be quick picks.
Patreon subscribers will hear more about some prelim matchups that hold some sort of betting value. These will be released as "The MMA Lock-Cast+". See in the Exclusive Patreon Content section below for more information.
Tuesday - "Locked In"
Locked In is one of the new shows I will be rolling out with this new era of my brand. In this show I will be focusing on one match-up every event to breakdown as diligently as I possibly can. With breaking down tape and techniques, I'll be using a visual aid to drive home these concepts to help viewers grasp the what they are seeing even easier. I will dive into the technical aspects of each fighter's game and tie it all together with a focus on how they match up against their opposition while predicting a winner (and method of victory) at the end of it.
Patreon subscribers will have an exclusive Locked In episode every UFC PPV strictly for themselves. Check under the Exclusive Patreon Content section below for more info.
Sunday - "Deciding Splits"
This will be a segment me and Tony do, in conjunction with Combatosseurs, where we go over any controversial decisions from the most recent UFC event. In the event of no questionable decisions, there won't be an episode released.
On top of all this free content, Patreon members will enjoy the content listed below.
**PATREON EXCLUSIVE CONTENT**
Exclusive Patreon Locked In episodes - On top of the Locked In episode that I release for the public, I will release another episode focusing on a different match-up strictly for Patreon subscribers for every UFC PPV event. These exclusive episodes will also be released on the Tuesday of fight week. Two weeks before every PPV I will put out a poll to my Pateron members to determine which match-up I will focus on for them. Once that has been decided, I will then choose which one I will release for the public.
Expect the same quality, time, and effort dedicated to this patreon-exclusive episode as the one that goes out on my Youtube channel. The goal is to do an exclusive Locked In episode every event, but the amount of time and effort these shows requires it would be too difficult until I am able to do this more full-time.
The MMA Lock-Cast+ - Patreon members will get 5-8 minute videos throughout fight week covering most prelim matchups which I only gave quick picks for on the flagship Lock-Cast show. If there's one specific prelim fight you'd like me to touch on, by all means shoot it my way and I'll be sure to release a video for it.
Late Fight-Week Line Thoughts - The day before UFC events, I will release a quick video to go over any significant line movements that occurred since I dropped my Lock Cast podcast. There is usually a good amount of line movement that I wish I could discuss with followers of mine, and I believe this is the perfect platform. I may not play some of these line movements, especially if I already played the line earlier in the week, but I am more than happy to give advice to people who have yet to place any wagers.
I will look to make this a live video where I will take questions live from subscribers about current lines. Once the Patreon has some legs, I'll throw this suggestion out there and see how well it is received before committing to doing live videos.
Every official MMALOTN bet - Subscribers will have access to every single official bet I make even when I am charging the public. Normally, my policy is that I will only charge the public for picks when I have profited on 3 straight events that include a Lock of the Night bet. If I run into a losing event, the next 3 events need to hit a profit for me to charge the public again.
LOTN PATREON PARLAY - For every UFC event I'll release an exclusive parlay strictly for Patreon members, even when the rest of my plays are free for the public. These will be 3-5 leg parlays of my most confident picks. This parlay will normally be posted a couple hours after weigh ins have wrapped.
Creating a little structure to my pricing to make it fair. Prices will be dictated by my LOTN hit % (see below for current win %). See below for exact numbers.
Price structure:
1%-79% = $20
80%-89% = $35
90%-99% = $50
If I lose an event with a LOTN on it, I will post my next 3 events for free. As long as all 3 are hits, my 4th and moving forward will be paid picks. I feel this is the best method to selling picks.
Plays that I missed posting on here (counted in record in notes, not betmma stats):
LFA 43 - Brendan Allen vs. Larry Crowe
Allen 5u @ -290 WON +1.72u
UFC Shenzhen - Anthony Hernandez/Jun Yu
Ong Park FDGTD (5u) @ -175
|
Picks on Upcoming MMA Fights by Lock of the Night |
|
This handicapper has made no picks on upcoming fights. |
Lock of the Night 's MMA Handicapper's Pick History
|
Your $ bet per unit is set at $10. You can edit that value in your settings.
UFC 245, Las Vegas,
15th Dec '19 |
| Pick |
Opponent |
|
Odds |
Unit
Bet |
Unit
Profit |
Cash
Profit |
ROI |
|
| Alex Volkanovski |
Max Holloway |
W |
2.51 |
1.25 |
1.89 |
$18.87 |
151% |
|
| Straight Pick Event Totals: |
|
2.51 |
1.25 |
1.89 |
$18.87 |
151% |
|
| |
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
| Pi |
Amanda Nunes vs Germaine de Randamie |
Nunes to win |
W |
1.38 |
| Pi |
Petr Yan vs Urijah Faber |
Yan to win |
W |
1.22 |
| |
|
Parlay Odds: |
1.68 |
|
|
5 |
3.41 |
$34.06 |
68% |
|
| |
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
| Pi |
Kamaru Usman vs Colby Covington |
Usman to win |
W |
1.51 |
| Pi |
Amanda Nunes vs Germaine de Randamie |
Nunes to win |
W |
1.32 |
| Pi |
Petr Yan vs Urijah Faber |
Yan to win |
W |
1.19 |
| Pi |
Geoff Neal vs Mike Perry |
Neal to win |
W |
1.42 |
| Pi |
Jose Aldo vs Marlon Moraes |
Moraes to win |
W |
1.56 |
| Pi |
Ian Heinisch vs Omari Akhmedov |
Heinisch to win |
L |
1.78 |
| Pi |
Matt Brown vs Ben Saunders |
Brown to win |
W |
1.28 |
| |
|
Parlay Odds: |
11.99 |
|
|
0.25 |
-0.25 |
$-2.50 |
-100% |
|
| Prop & Parlay Event Totals: |
|
5.25 |
3.16 |
$31.56 |
60% |
|
| Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets): |
|
6.50 |
5.04 |
$50.43 |
78% |
|
| |
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
| Pr |
Alistair Overeem vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik |
Under 1.5 rounds |
L |
1.78 |
|
|
4 |
-4.00 |
$-40.00 |
-100% |
|
| |
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
| Pi |
Marina Alcalde Rodriguez vs Cynthia Calvillo |
Calvillo to win |
NA |
2.19 |
| Pi |
Aspen Ladd vs Yana Kunitskaya |
Ladd to win |
W |
1.58 |
| Pi |
Yadong Song vs Cody Stamann |
Song to win |
NA |
1.51 |
| Pi |
Stefan Struve vs Ben Rothwell |
Rothwell to win |
W |
1.72 |
| |
|
Parlay Odds: |
8.97 |
|
|
0.25 |
0.43 |
$4.28 |
171% |
|
| Prop & Parlay Event Totals: |
|
4.25 |
-3.57 |
$-35.72 |
-84% |
|
| Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets): |
|
6.00 |
-3.57 |
$-35.72 |
-60% |
|
|
| Pick |
Opponent |
|
Odds |
Unit
Bet |
Unit
Profit |
Cash
Profit |
ROI |
|
| Paul Craig |
Mauricio Rua |
D |
3.52 |
1 |
0.00 |
$0.00 |
0% |
|
| Straight Pick Event Totals: |
|
3.52 |
1.00 |
0.00 |
$0.00 |
0% |
|
| |
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
| Pr |
Antonio Arroyo vs Andre Muniz |
Under 2.5 rounds |
L |
1.85 |
|
|
1.5 |
-1.50 |
$-15.00 |
-100% |
|
| |
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
| Pi |
Sergio Moraes vs James Krause |
Krause to win |
W |
1.51 |
| Pi |
Ricardo Ramos vs Luiz Garagorri |
Ramos to win |
W |
1.29 |
| Pi |
Douglas Silva de Andrade vs Renan Barao |
Silva de Andrade to win |
W |
1.40 |
| Pi |
Tracy Cortez vs Vanessa Melo |
Cortez to win |
W |
1.50 |
| Pr |
Antonio Arroyo vs Andre Muniz |
Under 2.5 rounds |
L |
1.71 |
| |
|
Parlay Odds: |
6.97 |
|
|
0.25 |
-0.25 |
$-2.50 |
-100% |
|
| |
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
| Pi |
Sergio Moraes vs James Krause |
Krause to win |
W |
1.50 |
| Pi |
Douglas Silva de Andrade vs Renan Barao |
Silva de Andrade to win |
W |
1.40 |
| |
|
Parlay Odds: |
2.10 |
|
|
1.5 |
1.64 |
$16.45 |
110% |
|
| Prop & Parlay Event Totals: |
|
3.25 |
-0.11 |
$-1.05 |
-3% |
|
| Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets): |
|
4.25 |
-0.11 |
$-1.05 |
-2% |
|
|
| Pick |
Opponent |
|
Odds |
Unit
Bet |
Unit
Profit |
Cash
Profit |
ROI |
|
| Calvin Kattar |
Zabit Magomedsharipov |
L |
3.40 |
1 |
-1.00 |
$-10.00 |
-100% |
|
| Straight Pick Event Totals: |
|
3.40 |
1.00 |
-1.00 |
$-10.00 |
-100% |
|
| |
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
| Pi |
Danny Roberts vs Zelim Imadaev |
Imadaev to win |
L |
1.48 |
| Pi |
Klidson Farias de Abreu vs Shamil Gamzatov |
Farias de Abreu to win |
L |
2.60 |
| Pi |
Magomed Ankalaev vs Dalcha Lungiambula |
Ankalaev to win |
W |
1.25 |
| Pi |
Rustam Khabilov vs Sergey Khandozhko |
Khabilov to win |
W |
1.53 |
| Pi |
Alexander Yakovlev vs Roosevelt Roberts |
Roberts to win |
W |
1.63 |
| |
|
Parlay Odds: |
11.99 |
|
|
0.25 |
-0.25 |
$-2.50 |
-100% |
|
| |
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
| PrPi |
Danny Roberts vs Zelim Imadaev |
Imadaev wins inside distance |
L |
1.83 |
|
|
3.5 |
-3.50 |
$-35.00 |
-100% |
|
| |
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
| Pi |
Rustam Khabilov vs Sergey Khandozhko |
Khabilov to win |
W |
1.53 |
| Pi |
Alexander Yakovlev vs Roosevelt Roberts |
Roberts to win |
W |
1.72 |
| |
|
Parlay Odds: |
2.63 |
|
|
1.25 |
2.04 |
$20.36 |
163% |
|
| Prop & Parlay Event Totals: |
|
5.00 |
-1.71 |
$-17.14 |
-34% |
|
| Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets): |
|
6.00 |
-2.71 |
$-27.14 |
-45% |
|
| |
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
| Pi |
Corey Anderson vs Johnny Walker |
Anderson to win |
W |
2.45 |
| Pi |
Stephen Thompson vs Vicente Luque |
Thompson to win |
W |
1.81 |
| Pi |
Gregor Gillespie vs Kevin Lee |
Gillespie to win |
L |
1.56 |
| Pi |
Andrei Arlovski vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik |
Arlovski to win |
L |
2.31 |
| Pi |
Chance Rencountre vs Lyman Good |
Good to win |
W |
1.81 |
| |
|
Parlay Odds: |
28.95 |
|
|
0.25 |
-0.25 |
$-2.50 |
-100% |
|
| |
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
| PrPi |
Darren Till vs Kelvin Gastelum |
Gastelum wins inside distance |
L |
2.20 |
|
|
1.75 |
-1.75 |
$-17.50 |
-100% |
|
| |
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
| PrPi |
Corey Anderson vs Johnny Walker |
Anderson wins inside distance |
W |
5.93 |
|
|
0.25 |
1.23 |
$12.33 |
493% |
|
| |
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
| Pr |
Shane Burgos vs Makwan Amirkhani |
Under 2.5 rounds |
L |
2.65 |
|
|
1 |
-1.00 |
$-10.00 |
-100% |
|
| Prop & Parlay Event Totals: |
|
3.25 |
-1.77 |
$-17.67 |
-54% |
|
| Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets): |
|
10.25 |
-4.84 |
$-48.42 |
-47% |
|
Bellator 232, Uncasville,
26th Oct '19 |
| |
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
| Pr |
Paul Daley vs Saad Awad |
Under 2.5 rounds |
W |
1.74 |
|
|
2.5 |
1.85 |
$18.52 |
74% |
|
| |
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
| Pr |
Patrick Mix vs Isaiah Chapman |
Under 1.5 rounds |
W |
1.80 |
|
|
1.5 |
1.20 |
$12.00 |
80% |
|
| Prop & Parlay Event Totals: |
|
4.00 |
3.05 |
$30.52 |
76% |
|
| Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets): |
|
4.00 |
3.05 |
$30.52 |
76% |
|
| |
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
| PrPi |
Frank Camacho vs Beneil Dariush |
Camacho wins inside distance |
L |
3.40 |
|
|
1 |
-1.00 |
$-10.00 |
-100% |
|
| |
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
| Pr |
Michael Johnson vs Stevie Ray |
Under 2.5 rounds |
L |
2.55 |
|
|
0.8 |
-0.80 |
$-8.00 |
-100% |
|
| Prop & Parlay Event Totals: |
|
1.80 |
-1.80 |
$-18.00 |
-100% |
|
| Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets): |
|
9.05 |
-1.23 |
$-12.25 |
-14% |
|
UFC ESPN 6, Boston,
18th Oct '19 |
| Pick |
Opponent |
|
Odds |
Unit
Bet |
Unit
Profit |
Cash
Profit |
ROI |
|
| Jeremy Stephens |
Yair Rodriguez |
L |
2.02 |
2.75 |
-2.75 |
$-27.50 |
-100% |
|
| Straight Pick Event Totals: |
|
2.02 |
2.75 |
-2.75 |
$-27.50 |
-100% |
|
| |
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
| PrPi |
Manny Bermudez vs Charles Rosa |
Bermudez wins inside distance |
L |
2.30 |
|
|
1.5 |
-1.50 |
$-15.00 |
-100% |
|
| |
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
| Pr |
Greg Hardy vs Ben Sosoli |
Under 1.5 rounds |
L |
1.58 |
|
|
5 |
-5.00 |
$-50.00 |
-100% |
|
| |
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
| PrPi |
Joe Lauzon vs Jonathan Pearce |
Pearce wins inside distance |
L |
1.91 |
|
|
1.1 |
-1.10 |
$-11.00 |
-100% |
|
| |
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
| Pr |
Boston Salmon vs Randy Costa |
Under 2.5 rounds |
W |
1.83 |
|
|
1.3 |
1.08 |
$10.83 |
83% |
|
| |
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
| PrPi |
Deron Winn vs Darren Stewart |
Stewart wins by TKO/KO |
L |
5.30 |
|
|
0.25 |
-0.25 |
$-2.50 |
-100% |
|
| Prop & Parlay Event Totals: |
|
9.15 |
-6.77 |
$-67.67 |
-74% |
|
| Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets): |
|
11.90 |
-9.52 |
$-95.17 |
-80% |
|
| |
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
| PrPi |
Cub Swanson vs Kron Gracie |
Gracie wins inside distance |
L |
1.95 |
|
|
1.25 |
-1.25 |
$-12.50 |
-100% |
|
| |
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
| Pr |
James Vick vs Niko Price |
Under 1.5 rounds |
W |
1.88 |
|
|
1.75 |
1.55 |
$15.49 |
88% |
|
| Prop & Parlay Event Totals: |
|
3.00 |
0.30 |
$2.99 |
10% |
|
| Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets): |
|
8.40 |
1.45 |
$14.46 |
17% |
|
| |
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
| PrPi |
Luke Jumeau vs Dhiego Lima |
Lima wins inside distance |
L |
4.90 |
|
|
0.25 |
-0.25 |
$-2.50 |
-100% |
|
| |
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
| Pr |
Tai Tuivasa vs Sergey Spivak |
Under 1.5 rounds |
L |
1.60 |
|
|
2.5 |
-2.50 |
$-25.00 |
-100% |
|
| |
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
| Pr |
Yorgan De Castro vs Justin Tafa |
Under 1.5 rounds |
W |
1.81 |
|
|
3.5 |
2.85 |
$28.46 |
81% |
|
| Prop & Parlay Event Totals: |
|
6.25 |
0.10 |
$0.96 |
2% |
|
| Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets): |
|
11.00 |
-1.67 |
$-16.72 |
-15% |
|
| Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets): |
|
6.25 |
0.61 |
$6.09 |
10% |
|
| |
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
| PrPi |
Ion Cutelaba vs Khalil Rountree |
Cutelaba wins inside distance |
W |
2.60 |
|
|
0.75 |
1.20 |
$12.00 |
160% |
|
| |
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
| Pr |
Ismail Naurdiev vs Siyar Bahadurzada |
Under 2.5 rounds |
L |
2.50 |
|
|
1.5 |
-1.50 |
$-15.00 |
-100% |
|
| Prop & Parlay Event Totals: |
|
2.25 |
-0.30 |
$-3.00 |
-13% |
|
| Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets): |
|
10.75 |
-2.28 |
$-22.75 |
-21% |
|
| |
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
| Pi |
Claudio Puelles vs Marcos Mariano |
Puelles to win |
W |
1.40 |
| Pi |
Vanessa Melo vs Irene Aldana |
Aldana to win |
W |
1.21 |
| |
|
Parlay Odds: |
1.70 |
|
|
2 |
1.40 |
$14.00 |
70% |
|
| |
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
| PrPi |
Jose Quinonez vs Carlos Huachin |
Huachin wins inside distance |
L |
4.20 |
|
|
0.5 |
-0.50 |
$-5.00 |
-100% |
|
| |
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
| Pr |
Sergio Pettis vs Tyson Nam |
Fight doesn't go to decision |
L |
3.30 |
|
|
0.5 |
-0.50 |
$-5.00 |
-100% |
|
| |
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
| Pr |
Martin Bravo vs Steven Peterson |
Under 2.5 rounds |
W |
3.01 |
|
|
0.5 |
1.00 |
$10.05 |
201% |
|
| Prop & Parlay Event Totals: |
|
3.50 |
1.40 |
$14.05 |
40% |
|
| Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets): |
|
14.45 |
0.04 |
$0.42 |
0% |
|
| |
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
| Pr |
Louis Smolka vs Ryan MacDonald |
Under 2.5 rounds |
W |
2.25 |
|
|
0.8 |
1.00 |
$10.00 |
125% |
|
| Prop & Parlay Event Totals: |
|
0.80 |
1.00 |
$10.00 |
125% |
|
| Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets): |
|
7.00 |
-2.76 |
$-27.64 |
-39% |
|
|
| Pick |
Opponent |
|
Odds |
Unit
Bet |
Unit
Profit |
Cash
Profit |
ROI |
|
| Emmanuel Sanchez |
Tywan Claxton |
W |
1.79 |
2 |
1.59 |
$15.87 |
79% |
|
| Straight Pick Event Totals: |
|
1.79 |
2.00 |
1.59 |
$15.87 |
79% |
|
| Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets): |
|
2.00 |
1.59 |
$15.87 |
79% |
|
| |
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
| Pi |
Mairbek Taisumov vs Carlos Diego Ferreira |
Taisumov to win |
L |
1.38 |
| Pi |
Teemu Packalen vs Ottman Azaitar |
Azaitar to win |
W |
1.44 |
| |
|
Parlay Odds: |
1.98 |
|
|
2 |
-2.00 |
$-20.00 |
-100% |
|
| Prop & Parlay Event Totals: |
|
2.00 |
-2.00 |
$-20.00 |
-100% |
|
| Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets): |
|
9.50 |
-9.50 |
$-95.00 |
-100% |
|
|
| Pick |
Opponent |
|
Odds |
Unit
Bet |
Unit
Profit |
Cash
Profit |
ROI |
|
| Da Un Jung |
Khadis Ibragimov |
W |
3.40 |
0.5 |
1.20 |
$12.00 |
240% |
|
| Straight Pick Event Totals: |
|
3.40 |
0.50 |
1.20 |
$12.00 |
240% |
|
| |
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
| Pi |
Damir Ismagulov vs Thiago Moises |
Ismagulov to win |
W |
1.55 |
|
|
2 |
1.10 |
$11.05 |
55% |
|
| Prop & Parlay Event Totals: |
|
2.00 |
1.10 |
$11.05 |
55% |
|
| Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets): |
|
2.50 |
2.30 |
$23.05 |
92% |
|
|
|
| |
|
|
| |
