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UFC Fighters Who Missed Weight

Fighters often miss their weight limit for their UFC fights, for whatever reason. Quite often that sees their odds change quite dramatically, with people assuming they'll then turn in a poor performance in their fight at the event the next day. So do they? Let's have a look at the statistics.

UFC Fights Where a Fighter Missed Weight

  W/L Weighed WC Odds Missed Weight Odds Opponent Date Method Rnd Time
1. L 118 115 +165 Joanne Calderwood -175 Cynthia Calvillo 16 Jul '17 Dec 3 5:00
2. L 188 185 -141 Johny Hendricks +137 Tim Boetsch 25 Jun '17 KO/TKO 2 0:46
3. W 149 145 -141 Jared Gordon +135 Michel Quinones 25 Jun '17 KO/TKO 2 4:24
4. L 118 115 +165 Chan-Mi Jeon -161 J.J. Aldrich 10 Jun '17 Dec 3 5:00
5. W 176 170 -286 Darren Till +295 Jessin Ayari 28 May '17 Dec 3 5:00
6. L 210 205 +145 Marcos Rogerio de Lima -154 Ovince St Preux 22 Apr '17 Sub 2 2:11
7. L 139.5 135 +450 Gina Mazany -500 Sara McMann 19 Feb '17 Sub 1 1:14
8. L 117.5 115 +350 Bec Rawlings -357 Tecia Torres 4 Feb '17 Dec 3 5:00
9. W 209.5 205 -164 Marcos Rogerio de Lima +136 Jeremy Kimball 28 Jan '17 KO/TKO 1 2:27
10. W 129.5 125 -123 Ray Borg +115 Louis Smolka 31 Dec '16 Dec 3 5:00
11. L 173.5 170 +165 Johny Hendricks -175 Neil Magny 31 Dec '16 Dec 3 5:00
12. L 148 145 +150 Anthony Pettis -159 Max Holloway 10 Dec '16 KO/TKO 3 4:50
13. W 157.5 155 -222 Rustam Khabilov +179 Jason Saggo 10 Dec '16 Dec 3 5:00
14. W 116.4 115 -208 Justine Kish +196 Ashley Yoder 9 Dec '16 Dec 3 5:00
15. W 173 170 -159 Zak Cummings +150 Alexander Yakovlev 19 Nov '16 Sub 2 4:02
16. L 155 145 -112 Charles Oliveira +101 Ricardo Lamas 5 Nov '16 Sub 2 2:13
17. W 136.5 135 +110 John Lineker -118 John Dodson 1 Oct '16 Dec 5 5:00
18. W 161.5 155 +265 Alex Oliveira -278 Will Brooks 1 Oct '16 KO/TKO 3 3:30
19. L 148.5 145 -164 Hacran Dias +160 Andre Fili 1 Oct '16 Dec 3 5:00
20. L 158 155 +385 Michael McBride -417 Nik Lentz 10 Sep '16 KO/TKO 2 4:17
21. W 159 155 -278 Chad Laprise +290 Thibault Gouti 27 Aug '16 KO/TKO 1 1:36
22. W 117.5 115 -123 Randa Markos +125 Jocelyn Jones-Lybarger 18 Jun '16 Dec 3 5:00
23. W 150.5 145 +155 Charles Oliveira -159 Myles Jury 19 Dec '15 Sub 1 3:05
24. L 160 155 +381 Francisco Trevino -417 Sage Northcutt 3 Oct '15 KO/TKO 1 0:57
25. W 187.5 185 +159 Joe Riggs -159 Ron Stallings 5 Sep '15 2 2:28
26. W 148.5 145 -105 Maximo Blanco +100 Mike de la Torre 12 Jul '15 KO/TKO 1 0:16
27. W 149.5 145 +197 Jeremy Stephens -200 Dennis Bermudez 11 Jul '15 KO/TKO 3 0:32
28. L 159 155 +186 Lewis Gonzalez -169 Leandro Silva 27 Jun '15 Dec 3 5:00
29. L 159.5 155 +186 Yancy Medeiros -179 Dustin Poirier 6 Jun '15 KO/TKO 1 2:38
30. L 140 135 -156 Leonardo Morales +163 Jose Quinonez 6 Jun '15 Sub 1 2:34
31. L 147 145 +133 Royston Wee -127 Guangyou Ning 16 May '15 KO/TKO 2 4:59
32. L 157.5 155 -137 Daron Cruickshank +137 Beneil Dariush 14 Mar '15 Sub 2 2:48
33. L 191.5 185 -156 Patrick Walsh +163 Daniel Kelly 14 Feb '15 Dec 3 5:00
34. W 158 155 -213 James Moontasri +203 Cody Pfister 14 Feb '15 Sub 2 1:49
35. L 175 170 +100 Kelvin Gastelum +133 Tyron Woodley 31 Jan '15 Dec 3 5:00
36. W 130 125 +213 John Lineker -233 Ian McCall 31 Jan '15 Dec 3 5:00
37. L 149 145 +567 Paul Redmond -667 Mirsad Bektic 24 Jan '15 Dec 3 5:00
38. L 138 135 -179 Alexis Dufresne +170 Marion Reneau 3 Jan '15 Dec 3 5:00
39. L 160.6 155 +257 Nate Diaz -244 Rafael dos Anjos 13 Dec '14 Dec 3 5:00
40. W 146.5 145 +133 Charles Oliveira -112 Jeremy Stephens 12 Dec '14 Dec 3 5:00
41. L 191 185 -769 Ronny Markes +660 Thiago Santos 23 Mar '14 KO/TKO 1 0:53
42. W 129 125 -370 John Lineker +355 Jose Maria Tome 3 Aug '13 KO/TKO 2 1:03

UFC Fighters Who Missed Weight Win %

Missed Weight Wins 19  45%  
 
  Missed Weight Losses 23  55%  
 
KOs / TKOs 7 37%
 
  KOs / TKOs 7 30%
 
Submissions 3   16%
 
  Submissions 5   22%
 
Decisions 8   42%
 
  Decisions 11   48%
 
                 

Betting on UFC FIghters Who Missed Weight

Bet $10 on all fights ($420 total bet)
$10 bet on fighters who missed weight $-87.00 -21% ROI
$10 bet against fighters who missed weight $199.20 47% ROI
     
Average odds fighters who missed weight +108  
Average odds non fighters who missed weight -110  

Betting on the missed weight fighters, broken down by odds ranges

% Win Chance: A conversion of the bookmaker's odds into their % probability of a win for fighters in this odds range.
% Won: The percentage of fighters that actually won in that odds range.
Avg % Win Chance: The average bookmaker odds for the fighters in this odds range.
= Odds of: Avg % Win Chance converted into odds format.
Over / Under Perform: Here we compare the Avg % Win Chance (i.e. what percentage of the fights the bookmaker says these fighters should win), with how many actually won. Over performing means more fighters are winning in this odds bracket than should and under performing (negative number) means this odds range under performs and would not be good to bet on.

% Win Chance =Odds Fights Won Lost % Won % Won Avg % Win Chance = Odds Over / Under Perform Bet $10 on
all fights (ROI)
<10% +900 0 0 0
 
10-15% +900 to +567 1 0 1
 
0% 15% +567 -15%
 
$-10 (-100%)
15-20% +567 to +400 1 0 1
 
0% 18% +450 -18%
 
$-10 (-100%)
20-25% +400 to +300 3 0 3
 
0% 21% +371 -21%
 
$-30 (-100%)
25-30% +300 to +233 2 1 1
 
50% 28% +261 22%
 
$16 (80%)
30-35% +233 to +186 4 2 2
 
50% 34% +195 16%
 
$19 (48%)
35-40% +186 to +150 5 2 3
 
40% 38% +162 2%
 
$2 (5%)
40-45% +150 to +122 4 1 3
 
25% 42% +140 -17%
 
$-16 (-40%)
45-50% +122 to +100 1 1 0
 
100% 48% +110 52%
 
$11 (110%)
50-55% +100 to -122 3 1 2
 
33% 51% -106 -18%
 
$-11 (-35%)
55-60% -122 to -150 5 3 2
 
60% 57% -133 3%
 
$3 (5%)
60-65% -150 to -186 6 2 4
 
33% 62% -163 -29%
 
$-28 (-46%)
65-70% -186 to -233 3 3 0
 
100% 68% -214 32%
 
$14 (47%)
70-75% -233 to -300 2 2 0
 
100% 74% -282 26%
 
$7 (35%)
75-80% -300 to -400 1 1 0
 
100% 79% -370 21%
 
$3 (27%)
80-85% -400 to -567 0 0 0
 
85-90% -567 to -900 1 0 1
 
0% 88% -769 -88%
 
$-10 (-100%)
90% + -900 0 0 0
 
      19 23              

Betting against the fighters who missed weight, broken down by odds ranges

% Win Chance =Odds Fights Won Lost % Won % Won Avg % Win Chance = Odds Over / Under Perform Bet $10 on
all fights (ROI)
<10% +900 0 0 0
 
10-15% +900 to +567 1 1 0
 
100% 13% +660 87%
 
$66 (660%)
15-20% +567 to +400 0 0 0
 
20-25% +400 to +300 1 0 1
 
0% 22% +355 -22%
 
$-10 (-100%)
25-30% +300 to +233 2 0 2
 
0% 25% +292 -25%
 
$-20 (-100%)
30-35% +233 to +186 2 0 2
 
0% 33% +199 -33%
 
$-20 (-100%)
35-40% +186 to +150 5 4 1
 
80% 37% +167 43%
 
$57 (113%)
40-45% +150 to +122 7 3 4
 
43% 42% +136 0%
 
$1 (1%)
45-50% +122 to +100 2 1 1
 
50% 48% +108 2%
 
$1 (4%)
50-55% +100 to -122 3 0 3
 
0% 52% -110 -52%
 
$-30 (-100%)
55-60% -122 to -150 1 1 0
 
100% 56% -127 44%
 
$8 (79%)
60-65% -150 to -186 9 7 2
 
78% 62% -165 15%
 
$22 (25%)
65-70% -186 to -233 2 0 2
 
0% 68% -215 -68%
 
$-20 (-100%)
70-75% -233 to -300 2 1 1
 
50% 72% -260 -22%
 
$-6 (-31%)
75-80% -300 to -400 1 1 0
 
100% 78% -357 22%
 
$3 (28%)
80-85% -400 to -567 3 3 0
 
100% 82% -442 18%
 
$7 (23%)
85-90% -567 to -900 1 1 0
 
100% 87% -667 13%
 
$2 (15%)
90% + -900 0 0 0
 
      23 19              

General Fight Summary

Weight class Fights %     Knockouts Submissions Decisions
Heavyweight   0%  
 
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Light Heavyweight 5%  
 
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Middleweight 10%  
 
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Welterweight 10%  
 
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Lightweight 10  24%  
 
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Featherweight 10  24%  
 
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Bantamweight 5%  
 
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Flyweight 7%  
 
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Women's Fights              
Bantamweight 5%  
 
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Strawweight 12%  
 
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All Fights 42            
Knockouts 14 33%
 
View these fights      
Submissions 19%
 
View these fights      
Decisions 19  45%
 
View these fights      

MMA Fight Statistics - KOs, Subs and Decisions by weight class

Knockouts          
Weight class lbs Fights %    
Heavyweight 265 0/  0%  
 
View these fights
Light Heavyweight 205 1/2  50%  
 
View these fights
Middleweight 185 2/4  50%  
 
View these fights
Welterweight 170 0/4  0%  
 
View these fights
Lightweight 155 5/10  50%  
 
View these fights
Featherweight 145 5/10  50%  
 
View these fights
Bantamweight 135 0/2  0%  
 
View these fights
Flyweight 125 1/3  33%  
 
View these fights
           
Women's Fights          
Bantamweight 135 0/2  0%  
 
View these fights
Strawweight 115 0/5  0%  
 
View these fights
Submissions          
Weight class lbs Fights %    
Heavyweight 265 0/  0%  
 
View these fights
Light Heavyweight 205 1/2  50%  
 
View these fights
Middleweight 185 0/4  0%  
 
View these fights
Welterweight 170 1/4  25%  
 
View these fights
Lightweight 155 2/10  20%  
 
View these fights
Featherweight 145 2/10  20%  
 
View these fights
Bantamweight 135 1/2  50%  
 
View these fights
Flyweight 125 0/3  0%  
 
View these fights
           
Women's Fights          
Bantamweight 135 1/2  50%  
 
View these fights
Strawweight 115 0/5  0%  
 
View these fights
Decisions          
Weight class lbs Fights %    
Heavyweight 265 0/  0%  
 
View these fights
Light Heavyweight 205 0/2  0%  
 
View these fights
Middleweight 185 1/4  25%  
 
View these fights
Welterweight 170 3/4  75%  
 
View these fights
Lightweight 155 3/10  30%  
 
View these fights
Featherweight 145 3/10  30%  
 
View these fights
Bantamweight 135 1/2  50%  
 
View these fights
Flyweight 125 2/3  67%  
 
View these fights
           
Women's Fights          
Bantamweight 135 1/2  50%  
 
View these fights
Strawweight 115 5/5  100%  
 
View these fights
Any Finish          
Weight class lbs Fights %    
Heavyweight 265 0/  0%  
 
 
Light Heavyweight 205 2/2  100%  
 
 
Middleweight 185 3/4  75%  
 
 
Welterweight 170 1/4  25%  
 
 
Lightweight 155 7/10  70%  
 
 
Featherweight 145 7/10  70%  
 
 
Bantamweight 135 1/2  50%  
 
 
Flyweight 125 1/3  33%  
 
 
           
Women's Fights          
Bantamweight 135 1/2  50%  
 
 
Strawweight 115 0/5  0%  
 
 

MMA Fight Statistics - Breakdown of all finish types by round, all fights

Fights: 42

Round 1 KO 6   14%  
 
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Round 1 Sub 3   7%  
 
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Round 2 KO 5   12%  
 
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Round 2 Sub 5   12%  
 
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Round 3 KO 3   7%  
 
View these fights
Round 3 Sub    
 
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Round 4 KO    
 
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Round 4 Sub    
 
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Round 5 KO    
 
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Round 5 Sub    
 
View these fights
3 Round Decision 18 43%  
 
View these fights
5 Round Decision 1 2%  
 
View these fights
         
KOs 14   33%  
 
View these fights
Subs 8   19%  
 
View these fights
Decisions 19 45%
 
View these fights

Notes & Donations

Althought the stats pages are programmed to update automatically, the base information is all added manually. If you noticed I've missed off a debut, or incorrectly marked a fighter as a debut, please let me know on twitter or facebook.

If these stats have helped you, or if you just appreciate the effort, you're more than welcome to donate. Any small amount is greatly appreciated! :)


 
 
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