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MMA Handicapper Stats: Denim Chicken

Denim Chicken (MRAJO)

MMA Betting Stats Summary

Overall Stats		Straight Fight Picks		Props		Parlays
Right	110 (39%)	Right	41 (51%)	Right	50 (30%)	Right	19 (58%)
Wrong	169 (61%)	Wrong	40 (49%)	Wrong	115 (70%)	Wrong	14 (42%)
Avg Odds	2.98	Avg Odds	2.15	Avg Odds	3.90	Avg Odds	2.41
Units Bet	280.6	Units Bet	157.9	Units Bet	85.8	Units Bet	36.9
Avg Bet	1.01	Avg Bet	1.95	Avg Bet	0.52	Avg Bet	1.12
Units Profit	52.54	Units Profit	15.43	Units Profit	23.17	Units Profit	13.94
ROI %	19%	ROI %	10%	ROI %	27%	ROI %	38%

Denim Chicken: Event by Event Predictions

The straight picks, parlays and props sections display Winnings / Bets (ROI%)

Date	Event	Bet	Won	ROI	Straight Picks	Props	Parlays
19th Apr '24	PFL 3: 2024 Regular Season	2.68	1.1	41%	-0.5 / 0.5 (-100%)	-0.6 / 0.58 (-100%)	2.2 / 1.6 (135%)
13th Apr '24	UFC 300	27.28	6.9	25%	-5.0 / 12.22 (-41%)	11.0 / 11.9 (92%)	0.9 / 3.16 (28%)
12th Apr '24	PFL 2: 2024 Regular Season	13.54	-12.3	-91%	-9.6 / 10.79 (-89%)	-1.8 / 1.75 (-100%)	-1.0 / 1 (-100%)
6th Apr '24	UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis II	14.8	0.5	3%	-1.0 / 10 (-10%)	1.5 / 4.8 (30%)
30th Mar '24	UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot	15.51	-0.5	-3%	-0.6 / 6.25 (-10%)	-0.6 / 7.76 (-7%)	0.7 / 1.5 (47%)
23rd Mar '24	UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas	19.76	-3.3	-16%	-3.1 / 9.04 (-35%)	-0.9 / 5.08 (-18%)	0.8 / 5.64 (14%)
22nd Mar '24	Bellator Champions Series	1.1	-1.1	-100%	-1.1 / 1.1 (-100%)
16th Mar '24	UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Tybura	11.1	4.2	38%	5.3 / 7.8 (68%)	-1.8 / 2.3 (-78%)	0.7 / 1 (67%)
9th Mar '24	UFC 299	36.135	12.2	34%	7.8 / 16.2 (48%)	-0.9 / 13.635 (-6%)	5.2 / 6.3 (83%)
2nd Mar '24	UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev	18.73	-4.1	-22%	-3.3 / 7.71 (-43%)	0.6 / 9.55 (7%)	-1.5 / 1.47 (-100%)
24th Feb '24	UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval	9.06	0.8	8%	1.1 / 6.16 (17%)	0.7 / 1.9 (37%)	-1.0 / 1 (-100%)
24th Feb '24	PFL vs. Bellator: Champs	1	-1.0	-100%	-0.5 / 0.5 (-100%)	-0.5 / 0.5 (-100%)
17th Feb '24	UFC 298	22.44	4.6	21%	1.4 / 9.95 (14%)	3.5 / 8.64 (40%)	-0.2 / 3.85 (-6%)
10th Feb '24	UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer	17.79	1.3	7%	1.1 / 11.66 (10%)	-1.0 / 3.45 (-29%)	1.2 / 2.68 (45%)
3rd Feb '24	UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Imavov	29.31	18.8	64%	14.5 / 15.7 (93%)	-0.2 / 7.2 (-2%)	4.5 / 6.41 (70%)
20th Jan '24	UFC 297	21.22	22.5	106%	7.3 / 13.59 (53%)	13.8 / 6.3 (218%)	1.5 / 1.33 (113%)
13th Jan '24	UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker	20.94	2.0	10%	1.7 / 18.72 (9%)	0.3 / 2.22 (15%)

Winning Events: 11 (65%)
Losing Events: 6 (35%)

Average Staked Per Event: 16.61 units
Most Staked On One Event: 36.14 units
Best Event: 22.51 units
Worst Event: -12.33 units
Average Event: 3.09 units

Max Win Streak: Events: 5, Units: 49.30
Max Losing Streak: Events: 3, Units: -12.33

Denim Chicken: Year on Year Profit

Year	Bet	Won	ROI	Straight Won / Bet (ROI%)	Prop Won / Bet (ROI%)	Parlay Won / Bet (ROI%)	Events Won / Lost (%)	Profit Per Event
2024	282.395	52.5	19%	15.4 / 157.89 (10%)		13.9 / 36.94 (38%)	11 / 6 (65%)	3.09

Denim Chicken: Yearly Straight Pick Stats

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Denim Chicken: Profit / Loss by Organization

Organization	Bet	Won	ROI	Straight Picks	Props	Parlays
UFC	264.075	65.9	25%	27.1 / 145 (19%)	26.0 / 84.735 (31%)	12.8 / 34.34 (37%)
Bellator	1.1	-1.1	-100%	-1.1 / 1.1 (-100%)
PFL	17.22	-12.2	-71%	-10.6 / 11.79 (-90%)	-2.8 / 2.83 (-100%)	1.2 / 2.6 (45%)

Denim Chicken: Straight Pick Stats

Big favourite means >65% win chance according to bookies. Big underdog is <35% chance.

	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Units Bet	Units Profit	Profit per Pick	ROI
Big Favorites	14 (13%)	11	79 %	26.37	5.26	0.38	20%
Slight Favorites	30 (28%)	15	50 %	56.00	-11.99	-0.40	-21%
Slight Underdogs	45 (41%)	25	56 %	57.46	25.92	0.58	45%
Big Underdogs	20 (18%)	4	20 %	18.06	-3.76	-0.19	-21%

Betting Stats By Card Position

	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Units Bet	Units Profit	Profit per Pick	ROI
Main Event	8 (7%)	2	25 %	14.17	-8.01	-1.00	-57%
Co-Main Event	5 (5%)	5	100 %	4.50	5.44	1.09	121%
Position 3-5	32 (29%)	12	38 %	47.80	-14.80	-0.46	-31%
6+ (Undercard)	64 (59%)	36	56 %	91.42	32.81	0.51	36%

Denim Chicken: Profit by Weight Class

	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Units Bet	Units Profit	Profit per Pick	ROI
Heavyweight	13 (12%)	11	85 %	19.51	20.18	1.55	103%
Light Heavy	11 (10%)	2	18 %	13.74	-9.38	-0.85	-68%
Middleweight	17 (16%)	10	59 %	28.04	1.80	0.11	6%
Welterweight	10 (9%)	5	50 %	14.75	5.18	0.52	35%
Lightweight	15 (14%)	5	33 %	19.21	-5.67	-0.38	-30%
Featherweight	13 (12%)	8	62 %	15.10	3.30	0.25	22%
Bantamweight	11 (10%)	5	45 %	21.80	-1.66	-0.15	-8%
Flyweight	8 (7%)	2	25 %	7.86	-0.56	-0.07	-7%

Women's Fights	11 (10%)	7	64 %	17.88	2.25	0.20	13%
Featherweight	1 (1%)	1	100 %	0.50	0.57	0.57	115%
Bantamweight	1 (1%)		0 %	0.87	-0.87	-0.87	-100%
Flyweight	4 (4%)	2	50 %	7.60	-0.40	-0.10	-5%
Strawweight	5 (5%)	4	80 %	8.91	2.95	0.59	33%

Props & Parlay Section Stats (Individual sections of this handicapper's parlays)

Straight picks within parlays

	Picks	Correct	% Correct
Big Favorites	39 (58%)	33	85 %
Slight Favorites	19 (28%)	14	74 %
Slight Underdogs	7 (10%)	3	43 %
Big Underdogs	2 (3%)	2	100 %
	67	52	78 %

Props bets and props within parlays

	Picks	Correct	% Correct
>65% chance	4 (2%)	3	75 %
50-65%	26 (15%)	12	46 %
35-50%	25 (14%)	15	60 %
<35% chance	118 (68%)	18	15 %
	173	48	28 %

Prop Bets and Props within Parlays: Bet Types

Prop Type	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Avg Odds	Longest Odds	Shortest Odds	1U Bet (ROI %)
Over (e.g. 1.5 / 2.5 rnds)	15 (9%)	10	67 %	1.77	3.42	1.35	4.6 (31%)
Under (e.g. 1.5 / 2.5 rnds)	7 (4%)	2	29 %	1.79	1.95	1.62	-3.6 (-51%)
Goes to Decision	5 (3%)	2	40 %	2.60	7.50	1.57	0.0 (0%)
Does not go to Decision	2 (1%)	0	0 %	2.11	2.80	1.69	-2.0 (-100%)
X Wins by KO	18 (10%)	6	33 %	4.60	27.00	2.25	8.5 (47%)
X Wins by Sub	12 (7%)	2	17 %	8.74	80.97	4.70	3.0 (25%)
X Wins by Decision	24 (14%)	6	25 %	4.52	11.00	2.29	5.0 (21%)
X Wins Inside Distance	3 (2%)	1	33 %	4.35	8.50	3.00	5.5 (183%)
X Does NOT Win Inside Distance	1 (1%)	1	100 %	1.53	1.53	1.53	0.5 (53%)
X Wins in Round X	49 (28%)	3	6 %	12.68	50.00	3.00	48.0 (98%)
Others	37 (21%)	15	41 %	2.61	19.00	1.69	2.2 (6%)
	173	48	28 %	3.83			71.9 (42%)

* 1U Bet (ROI %): Many of the picks will have been part of a parlay, however, as a rough guide to value / profitability, this figure supposes that the handicapper put a 1U bet on each of the picks individually, showing the profit / loss they would have made and the ROI %.

Tail Denim Chicken's bets

If you had tailed this handicapper's bets since they started logging their picks with us, it would have affected your betting bank balance as follows...

This is more accurate than simply X units total profit. Under that more basic system, 1 unit is equal to the same amount of theoretical dollars, whether it was the last event or 10 events ago. However, if a handicapper has 10 events profit in a row, their betting bank balance will be significantly larger for the 10th event and 1 unit will equal a LOT more than it did 10 events ago.

Date	Event	Bet	Won	ROI	Fee	1 unit =	Start	End
13th Jan	UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker	20.94	2.0	10%		$10.00	$1,000.00	$1,019.96
20th Jan	UFC 297	21.22	22.5	106%		$10.20	$1,019.96	$1,249.59
3rd Feb	UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Imavov	29.31	18.8	64%		$12.50	$1,249.59	$1,484.79
10th Feb	UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer	17.79	1.3	7%		$14.85	$1,484.79	$1,504.53
17th Feb	UFC 298	22.44	4.6	21%		$15.05	$1,504.53	$1,574.25
24th Feb	PFL vs. Bellator: Champs	1	-1.0	-100%		$15.74	$1,574.25	$1,558.51
24th Feb	UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval	9.06	0.8	8%		$15.59	$1,558.51	$1,570.36
2nd Mar	UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev	18.73	-4.1	-22%		$15.70	$1,570.36	$1,505.70
9th Mar	UFC 299	36.135	12.2	34%		$15.06	$1,505.70	$1,689.17
16th Mar	UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Tybura	11.1	4.2	38%		$16.89	$1,689.17	$1,759.65
22nd Mar	Bellator Champions Series	1.1	-1.1	-100%		$17.60	$1,759.65	$1,740.29
23rd Mar	UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas	19.76	-3.3	-16%		$17.40	$1,740.29	$1,683.71
30th Mar	UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot	15.51	-0.5	-3%		$16.84	$1,683.71	$1,675.55
6th Apr	UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis II	14.8	0.5	3%		$16.76	$1,675.55	$1,683.21
12th Apr	PFL 2: 2024 Regular Season	13.54	-12.3	-91%		$16.83	$1,683.21	$1,475.67
13th Apr	UFC 300	27.28	6.9	25%		$14.76	$1,475.67	$1,577.04
19th Apr	PFL 3: 2024 Regular Season	2.68	1.1	41%		$15.77	$1,577.04	$1,594.16

ROI % from starting bank balance: 59.42% (including fees)
*Note - we don't store historical fee amounts, so we assume the fees are the same as the handicapper charges now.

Denim Chicken: Last 20 Wins / Losses (Straight Picks)

Last 20 Wins

	Date	Straight Pick	Opponent	Odds	Bet	Result
1.	Apr '24	Arman Tsarukyan	Charles Oliveira	1.44	1	Split Decision (3 rounds)
2.	Apr '24	Renato Moicano	Jalin Turner	2.95	0.5	TKO, R2 (4:11)
3.	Apr '24	Rob Wilkinson	Tom Breese	1.70	0.71	TKO, R1 (1:10)
4.	Apr '24	Jessica Andrade	Marina Alcalde Rodriguez	1.87	2.3	Split Decision (3 rounds)
5.	Mar '24	Chris Weidman	Bruno Silva	2.90	0.25	U Decision (3 rounds)
6.	Mar '24	Chidi Njokuani	Rhys McKee	1.71	1.3	Split Decision (3 rounds)
7.	Apr '24	Lukasz Brzeski	Valter Walker	4.50	2	U Decision (3 rounds)
8.	Mar '24	Nate Landwehr	Jamall Emmers	2.68	1	TKO, R1 (4:43)
9.	Mar '24	Fernando Padilla	Luis Pajuelo	1.59	2	Sub, R1 (2:45)
10.	Mar '24	Youssef Zalal	Billy Quarantillo	2.27	1	Sub, R2 (1:50)
11.	Mar '24	Karl Williams	Justin Tafa	1.58	0.29	U Decision (3 rounds)
12.	Mar '24	Chelsea Chandler	Josiane Nunes	2.15	0.5	U Decision (3 rounds)
13.	Mar '24	Chad Anheliger	Charalampos Grigoriou	2.61	3	U Decision (3 rounds)
14.	Mar '24	Marcin Tybura	Tai Tuivasa	2.10	2	Sub, R1 (4:8)
15.	Mar '24	Philipe Lins	Ion Cutelaba	2.10	1.5	U Decision (3 rounds)
16.	Mar '24	Jairzinho Rozenstruik	Shamil Gaziev	2.61	0.75	TKO, R4 (5:0)
17.	Mar '24	Loik Radzhabov	Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady	2.57	0.96	TKO, R3 (0:49)
18.	Feb '24	Brian Ortega	Yair Rodriguez	2.24	0.5	Sub, R3 (0:58)
19.	Mar '24	Michel Pereira	Michal Oleksiejczuk	1.69	4	Sub, R1 (1:1)
20.	Feb '24	Brian Ortega	Yair Rodriguez	2.55	1	Sub, R3 (0:58)

Last 20 Losses

	Date	Straight Pick	Opponent	Odds	Bet	Result	Hedge?
1.	Apr '24	Brennan Ward	Don Madge	2.46	0.5	Sub, R1 (1:2)	No
2.	Apr '24	Mads Burnell	Michael Dufort	1.59	1.7	Sub, R2 (1:3)	No
3.	Apr '24	Sadibou Sy	Joshua Silveira	1.83	0.6	TKO, R1 (1:14)	No
4.	Apr '24	Sodiq Yusuff	Diego Lopes	2.24	1	TKO, R1 (1:29)	No
5.	Apr '24	Adam Piccolotti	Elvin Espinoza	1.83	2.4	TKO, R3 (2:23)	No
6.	Apr '24	Cody Garbrandt	Deiveson Figueiredo	3.55	0.5	Sub, R2 (4:2)	No
7.	Apr '24	Alex Polizzi	Impa Kasanganay	4.73	2.63	TKO, R1 (3:29)	No
8.	Apr '24	Alex Polizzi	Impa Kasanganay	5.10	0.7	TKO, R1 (3:29)	No
9.	Apr '24	Sadibou Sy	Joshua Silveira	1.65	1.55	TKO, R1 (1:14)	No
10.	Apr '24	Bruno Miranda	Brent Primus	2.05	0.5	Sub, R2 (1:49)	No
11.	Apr '24	Aleksandar Rakic	Jiri Prochazka	1.91	1	TKO, R2 (3:17)	No
12.	Apr '24	Cody Brundage	Bo Nickal	13.00	0.5	Sub, R2 (3:38)	No
13.	Apr '24	Pedro Falcao	Victor Hugo Silva	2.20	1	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
14.	Apr '24	Dan Argueta	Jean Matsumoto	2.50	1	Sub, R2 (4:59)	No
15.	Apr '24	Dan Argueta	Jean Matsumoto	2.70	1	Sub, R2 (4:59)	No
16.	Apr '24	Chris Curtis	Brendan Allen	2.90	2	Split Decision (5 rounds)	No
17.	Mar '24	Bill Algeo	Kyle Nelson	1.43	2.3	TKO, R1 (4:0)	No
18.	Mar '24	Erin Blanchfield	Manon Fiorot	1.71	1.4	U Decision (5 rounds)	No
19.	Apr '24	Dylan Budka	César Almeida	2.30	1.33	TKO, R2 (2:13)	No
20.	Apr '24	Dylan Budka	César Almeida	2.45	1.67	TKO, R2 (2:13)	No

* Hedge indicates that this handicapper also had a WINNING bet on the opponent. For example, they may have bet A to win straight up but with a hedge on the other fighter winning by decision.

Denim Chicken: Progress Chart

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