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Profitable MMA Handicappers: 2372
 
 
 
   
 

MMA Handicapper Stats: El Swede

El Swede (jmcnastymma)

MMA MHandicapper - El Swede

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MMA Betting Stats Summary

Overall Stats

Straight Fight Picks

Props

Parlays
Right 79 (43%) Right 58 (44%) Right 11 (41%) Right 10 (40%)
Wrong 104 (57%) Wrong 73 (56%) Wrong 16 (59%) Wrong 15 (60%)
Avg Odds 2.04 Avg Odds 1.84 Avg Odds 2.79 Avg Odds 2.77
Units Bet 326.5 Units Bet 265.4 Units Bet 28.1 Units Bet 33.0
Avg Bet 1.78 Avg Bet 2.03 Avg Bet 1.04 Avg Bet 1.32
Units Profit -34.12 Units Profit -32.87 Units Profit 2.56 Units Profit -3.81
ROI % -10% ROI % -12% ROI % 9% ROI % -12%
View Handicapper's Profile

El Swede: Event by Event Predictions
The straight picks, parlays and props sections display Winnings / Bets (ROI%)

Date Event Bet Won ROI Straight Picks Props Parlays
24th Feb '24 UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 12.2 -0.4 -3% -0.4 / 12.2 (-3%)
24th Feb '24 PFL vs. Bellator: Champs 22 12.0 55% 10.5 / 18 (58%) 0.5 / 2 (24%) 1.0 / 2 (51%)
24th Feb '24 KSW Epic 6.5 -6.5 -100% -6.5 / 6.5 (-100%)
24th Feb '24 Rizin Landmark 8 4 2.7 67% 2.7 / 4 (67%)
23rd Feb '24 LFA 177 5.5 1.5 28% 0.3 / 4.5 (7%) 1.2 / 1 (121%)
23rd Feb '24 Cage Warriors 166 6.7 -3.2 -48% -3.2 / 6.7 (-48%)
22nd Feb '24 A1 Combat 18 15 -6.7 -45% -7.9 / 11.5 (-69%) 1.2 / 3.5 (34%)
17th Feb '24 UFC 298 49.6 6.1 12% 1.2 / 37.25 (3%) 0.7 / 9.85 (7%) 4.2 / 2.5 (170%)
17th Feb '24 KSW 91 21.65 -3.1 -14% -0.9 / 16.15 (-6%) -2.2 / 5.5 (-39%)
10th Feb '24 UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer 16 -4.5 -28% -3.9 / 14 (-28%) -0.6 / 2 (-29%)
3rd Feb '24 UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Imavov 29.5 -10.5 -36% -5.6 / 21 (-27%) -2.5 / 2.5 (-100%) -2.4 / 6 (-40%)
28th Jan '24 One 165 5 -0.6 -11% 0.5 / 4 (11%) -1.0 / 1 (-100%)
20th Jan '24 UFC 297 20.6 -6.5 -31% -5.5 / 13.6 (-40%) 1.5 / 4.5 (33%) -2.5 / 2.5 (-100%)
20th Jan '24 KSW 90 8 -1.8 -23% -1.8 / 8 (-23%)
29th Dec '23 Oktagon 51 15 -15.0 -100% -11.5 / 11.5 (-100%) -3.5 / 3.5 (-100%)
16th Dec '23 UFC 296 48.25 3.0 6% 1.3 / 39.5 (3%) 2.2 / 4.75 (46%) -0.5 / 4 (-13%)
16th Dec '23 KSW 89 5 -0.4 -9% -0.4 / 5 (-9%)
15th Dec '23 LFA 173 8 -4.4 -55% -3.4 / 7 (-49%) -1.0 / 1 (-100%)
15th Dec '23 CFFC 128 3.75 -0.0 -1% -0.0 / 3.75 (-1%)
15th Dec '23 Cage Warriors 165 6.5 -0.3 -5% -0.6 / 4.5 (-14%) 0.3 / 2 (15%)
15th Dec '23 Ares FC 18 3 0.3 8% 0.3 / 3 (8%)
15th Dec '23 Brave CF 80 3.75 -1.0 -27% -1.0 / 3.75 (-27%)
9th Dec '23 UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez 8 3.7 46% 1.6 / 7 (23%) 2.1 / 1 (205%)
9th Dec '23 Oktagon 50 3 1.5 50% 1.5 / 3 (50%)


Winning Events: 8 (33%)
Losing Events: 16 (67%)

Average Staked Per Event: 13.60 units
Most Staked On One Event: 49.60 units
Best Event: 12.00 units
Worst Event: -15.00 units
Average Event: -1.42 units

Max Win Streak: Events: 2, Units: 12.00
Max Losing Streak: Events: 7, Units: -41.97

El Swede: Year on Year Profit
Year Bet Won ROI Straight
Won / Bet (ROI%)		 Prop
Won / Bet (ROI%)		 Parlay
Won / Bet (ROI%)		 Events
Won / Lost (%)		 Profit
Per Event
2024 222.25 -21.4 -10% -20.6 / 177.4 (-12%) -1.2 / 21.5 (-5%) 4 / 10 (29%) -1.53
2023 104.25 -12.7 -12% -12.3 / 88 (-14%) -2.6 / 11.5 (-23%) 4 / 6 (40%) -1.27

El Swede: Yearly Straight Pick Stats
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El Swede: Profit / Loss by Organization
Organization Bet Won ROI Straight Picks Props Parlays
UFC 184.15 -9.0 -5% -11.2 / 144.55 (-8%) 1.9 / 21.6 (9%) 0.3 / 18 (2%)
PFL 22 12.0 55% 10.5 / 18 (58%) 0.5 / 2 (24%) 1.0 / 2 (51%)
Other 120.35 -37.1 -31% -32.2 / 102.85 (-31%) 0.2 / 4.5 (4%) -5.2 / 13 (-40%)

El Swede: Straight Pick Stats

Big favourite means >65% win chance according to bookies. Big underdog is <35% chance.

  Picks Correct % Correct Units Bet Units Profit Profit per Pick ROI
Big Favorites 29 (21%) 19 66 % 98.15 -0.31 -0.01 -0%
Slight Favorites 53 (38%) 23 43 % 95.75 -29.83 -0.56 -31%
Slight Underdogs 48 (34%) 20 42 % 62.00 4.80 0.10 8%
Big Underdogs 10 (7%) 1 10 % 9.50 -7.52 -0.75 -79%



Betting Stats By Card Position

  Picks Correct % Correct Units Bet Units Profit Profit per Pick ROI
Main Event 20 (14%) 7 35 % 36.65 -9.15 -0.46 -25%
Co-Main Event 11 (8%) 4 36 % 16.00 -8.90 -0.81 -56%
Position 3-5 44 (31%) 22 50 % 91.45 -0.87 -0.02 -1%
6+ (Undercard) 65 (46%) 30 46 % 121.30 -13.95 -0.21 -12%

El Swede: Profit by Weight Class
  Picks Correct % Correct Units Bet Units Profit Profit per Pick ROI
Heavyweight 7 (5%) 2 29 % 9.50 -3.23 -0.46 -34%
Light Heavy 11 (8%) 6 55 % 25.50 0.05 0.00 0%
Middleweight 12 (9%) 4 33 % 21.75 -8.85 -0.74 -41%
Welterweight 25 (18%) 8 32 % 62.15 -13.17 -0.53 -21%
Lightweight 24 (17%) 11 46 % 40.10 -3.45 -0.14 -9%
Featherweight 16 (11%) 9 56 % 27.60 1.15 0.07 4%
Bantamweight 18 (13%) 10 56 % 38.60 1.04 0.06 3%
Flyweight 13 (9%) 5 38 % 19.75 -8.15 -0.63 -41%
               
Women's Fights 14 (10%) 8 57 % 20.45 1.73 0.12 8%
Bantamweight 4 (3%) 3 75 % 6.50 1.48 0.37 23%
Flyweight 6 (4%) 3 50 % 8.95 0.60 0.10 7%
Strawweight 4 (3%) 2 50 % 5.00 -0.35 -0.09 -7%

Props & Parlay Section Stats (Individual sections of this handicapper's parlays)

Straight picks within parlays

  Picks Correct % Correct
Big Favorites 58 (73%) 42 72 %
Slight Favorites 15 (19%) 6 40 %
Slight Underdogs 6 (8%) 2 33 %
Big Underdogs 0 (0%) 0 nan %
79 50 63 %

 

Props bets and props within parlays

  Picks Correct % Correct
>65% chance 0 (0%) 0 nan %
50-65% 2 (9%) 1 50 %
35-50% 8 (35%) 3 38 %
<35% chance 13 (57%) 4 31 %
23 8 35 %

Prop Bets and Props within Parlays: Bet Types
Prop Type Picks Correct % Correct Avg
Odds		 Longest
Odds		 Shortest
Odds		 1U Bet (ROI %)
Over (e.g. 1.5 / 2.5 rnds) 1 (4%) 1 100 % 1.63 1.63Pick was correct 1.63Pick was correct 0.6 (63%)
Under (e.g. 1.5 / 2.5 rnds) 1 (4%) 0 0 % 2.30 2.30Pick was incorrect 2.30Pick was incorrect -1.0 (-100%)
X Wins by KO 6 (26%) 2 33 % 3.32 9.00Pick was correct 2.10Pick was incorrect 5.5 (92%)
X Wins by Sub 4 (17%) 1 25 % 3.32 6.50Pick was incorrect 2.30Pick was correct -1.7 (-42%)
X Wins by Decision 1 (4%) 0 0 % 3.00 3.00Pick was incorrect 3.00Pick was incorrect -1.0 (-100%)
X Wins Inside Distance 10 (43%) 4 40 % 3.00 7.00Pick was incorrect 1.91Pick was incorrect 1.2 (12%)
23 8 35 % 2.98     3.6 (16%)

* 1U Bet (ROI %): Many of the picks will have been part of a parlay, however, as a rough guide to value / profitability, this figure supposes that the handicapper put a 1U bet on each of the picks individually, showing the profit / loss they would have made and the ROI %.

Tail El Swede's bets
If you had tailed this handicapper's bets since they started logging their picks with us, it would have affected your betting bank balance as follows...

This is more accurate than simply X units total profit. Under that more basic system, 1 unit is equal to the same amount of theoretical dollars, whether it was the last event or 10 events ago. However, if a handicapper has 10 events profit in a row, their betting bank balance will be significantly larger for the 10th event and 1 unit will equal a LOT more than it did 10 events ago.

Date Event Bet Won ROI Fee 1 unit = Start End
9th Dec Oktagon 50 3 1.5 50% $10.00 $1,000.00 $1,014.90
9th Dec UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez 8 3.7 46% $10.15 $1,014.90 $1,052.16
15th Dec Brave CF 80 3.75 -1.0 -27% $10.52 $1,052.16 $1,041.64
15th Dec Ares FC 18 3 0.3 8% $10.42 $1,041.64 $1,044.24
15th Dec Cage Warriors 165 6.5 -0.3 -5% $10.44 $1,044.24 $1,041.04
15th Dec CFFC 128 3.75 -0.0 -1% $10.41 $1,041.04 $1,040.79
15th Dec LFA 173 8 -4.4 -55% $10.41 $1,040.79 $995.02
16th Dec KSW 89 5 -0.4 -9% $9.95 $995.02 $990.54
16th Dec UFC 296 48.25 3.0 6% $9.91 $990.54 $1,020.59
29th Dec Oktagon 51 15 -15.0 -100% $10.21 $1,020.59 $867.50
20th Jan KSW 90 8 -1.8 -23% $8.68 $867.50 $851.61
20th Jan UFC 297 20.6 -6.5 -31% $8.52 $851.61 $796.47
28th Jan One 165 5 -0.6 -11% $7.96 $796.47 $792.09
3rd Feb UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Imavov 29.5 -10.5 -36% $7.92 $792.09 $708.84
10th Feb UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer 16 -4.5 -28% $7.09 $708.84 $677.07
17th Feb KSW 91 21.65 -3.1 -14% $6.77 $677.07 $655.93
17th Feb UFC 298 49.6 6.1 12% $6.56 $655.93 $696.25
22nd Feb A1 Combat 18 15 -6.7 -45% $6.96 $696.25 $649.55
23rd Feb LFA 177 5.5 1.5 28% $6.50 $649.55 $659.52
23rd Feb Cage Warriors 166 6.7 -3.2 -48% $6.60 $659.52 $638.42
24th Feb Rizin Landmark 8 4 2.7 67% $6.38 $638.42 $655.46
24th Feb KSW Epic 6.5 -6.5 -100% $6.55 $655.46 $612.86
24th Feb PFL vs. Bellator: Champs 22 12.0 55% $6.13 $612.86 $686.42
24th Feb UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 12.2 -0.4 -3% $6.86 $686.42 $683.90


ROI % from starting bank balance: -31.61% (including fees)
*Note - we don't store historical fee amounts, so we assume the fees are the same as the handicapper charges now.

El Swede: Last 20 Wins / Losses (Straight Picks)
Last 20 Wins
  Date Straight Pick Opponent Odds Bet Result    
1. Feb '24 John Buttner Brock Dias 2.40 1.5 U Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
2. Feb '24 Shohei Nose Kenta Takizawa 1.65 2 TKO, R2 (2:48) MMA Bookmaker
3. Feb '24 Yusuke Yachi Rikuto Shirakawa 1.69 2 Sub, R2 (5:0) MMA Bookmaker
4. Feb '24 Shamidkhan Magomedov Devin Smyth 1.61 3 TKO, R1 (3:55) MMA Bookmaker
5. Feb '24 Wilson Reis Toby Misech 1.40 2.5 Sub, R1 (3:2) MMA Bookmaker
6. Feb '24 Renan Ferreira Ryan Bader 2.00 2 TKO, R1 (0:21) MMA Bookmaker
7. Feb '24 Manuel Torres Chris Duncan (2) 1.87 3.2 Sub, R1 (1:46) MMA Bookmaker
8. Feb '24 Yoel Romero Thiago Santos 2.10 2 U Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
9. Feb '24 Brian Ortega Yair Rodriguez 2.35 1 Sub, R3 (0:58) MMA Bookmaker
10. Feb '24 Daniel Zellhuber Francisco Prado 1.40 2.5 U Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
11. Feb '24 Yoel Romero Thiago Santos 2.00 3 U Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
12. Feb '24 A.J. McKee Clay Collard 1.38 6 Sub, R1 (1:10) MMA Bookmaker
13. Feb '24 Vadim Nemkov Bruno Cappelozza 1.20 5 Sub, R2 (2:13) MMA Bookmaker
14. Feb '24 Rinya Nakamura Carlos Vera 1.12 11 U Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
15. Feb '24 Danny Barlow Josh Quinlan 1.47 4.15 TKO, R3 (1:18) MMA Bookmaker
16. Feb '24 Miranda Maverick Andrea Lee 1.59 1.7 U Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
17. Feb '24 Ian Garry Geoff Neal 1.42 2.4 Split Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
18. Feb '24 Dawid Kasperski Vasil Ducar 2.35 2 U Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
19. Feb '24 Wiktoria Czyżewska Petra Castkova 1.31 3.25 TKO, R1 (1:56) MMA Bookmaker
20. Feb '24 Mariusz Joniak Tobiasz Le 2.45 2 TKO, R1 (1:5) MMA Bookmaker



Last 20 Losses

  Date Straight Pick Opponent Odds Bet Result Hedge?    
1. Feb '24 Luis Jauregui Brandon Olson 1.83 3 Sub, R1 (1:36) No MMA Bookmaker
2. Feb '24 Jose Avalos Johnny Robles 1.87 2 Sub, R2 (3:15) No MMA Bookmaker
3. Feb '24 Anthony Figueroa Christian Avalos 2.15 2 Sub, R1 (4:14) No MMA Bookmaker
4. Feb '24 Jacob Rosales Erick Sanchez 1.56 3 U Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
5. Feb '24 Luke Roberts Farman Hasanov 2.10 1.5 U Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
6. Feb '24 Xavier Vines Corvan Allen 1.58 2.7 U Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
7. Feb '24 Bobby Winther Devin Goodale 2.15 1.5 U Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
8. Feb '24 Mateus Mendonca Jesus Santos Aguilar 1.74 3 Split Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
9. Feb '24 Bogdan Gnidko Ivan Erslan 1.87 2 TKO, R1 (0:54) No MMA Bookmaker
10. Feb '24 Marcin Wojcik Rafal Haratyk 1.74 2.5 TKO, R1 (4:7) No MMA Bookmaker
11. Feb '24 Kleber Silva Damian Piwowarczyk 2.25 2 TKO, R1 (2:42) No MMA Bookmaker
12. Feb '24 Brandon Moreno Brandon Royval 1.40 2.5 Split Decision (5 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
13. Feb '24 Junior Tafa Marcos Rogerio de Lima 2.85 1 TKO, R2 (1:14) No MMA Bookmaker
14. Feb '24 Adrian Wieliczko Josef Stummer 1.77 2 Sub, R2 (4:20) No MMA Bookmaker
15. Feb '24 Leo Brichta Valeriu Mircea 1.74 1.4 Sub, R4 (2:40) No MMA Bookmaker
16. Feb '24 Viktor Cervinsky Kacper Koziorzebski 1.67 1.5 U Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
17. Feb '24 Leo Brichta Valeriu Mircea 1.63 2 Sub, R4 (2:40) No MMA Bookmaker
18. Feb '24 Henry Fadipe Matus Juracek 1.95 1 TKO, R1 (4:0) No MMA Bookmaker
19. Feb '24 Valentine Woodburn Oban Elliott 3.40 1 U Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
20. Feb '24 Paulo Costa Robert Whittaker 2.90 2 U Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker

* Hedge indicates that this handicapper also had a WINNING bet on the opponent. For example, they may have bet A to win straight up but with a hedge on the other fighter winning by decision.

El Swede: Progress Chart
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