MMA Handicapper Stats: tilt formula |
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tilt formula: Event by Event Predictions |
The straight picks, parlays and props sections display Winnings / Bets (ROI%)
Winning Events: 8 (80%)
Losing Events: 2 (20%)
Average Staked Per Event: 7.98 units
Most Staked On One Event: 16.75 units
Best Event: 4.00 units
Worst Event: -6.40 units
Average Event: 0.74 units
Max Win Streak: Events: 5, Units: 9.33
Max Losing Streak: Events: 1, Units: -6.40 |
tilt formula: Year on Year Profit |
| Year |
Bet |
Won |
ROI |
Straight
Won / Bet (ROI%) |
Prop
Won / Bet (ROI%) |
Parlay
Won / Bet (ROI%) |
Events
Won / Lost
(%) |
Profit
Per Event |
| 2024 |
57.75 |
2.4 |
4% |
7.4 / 52.75 (14%) |
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-5.0 / 5 (-100%) |
5 / 1 (83%) |
0.41 |
| 2023 |
22 |
4.9 |
22% |
4.9 / 22 (22%) |
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3 / 1 (75%) |
1.24 |
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tilt formula: Yearly Straight Pick Stats |
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tilt formula: Profit / Loss by Organization |
| Organization |
Bet |
Won |
ROI |
Straight Picks |
Props |
Parlays |
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UFC |
74.75 |
3.4 |
5% |
8.4 / 69.75 (12%) |
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-5.0 / 5 (-100%) |
| Other |
5 |
4.0 |
80% |
4.0 / 5 (80%) |
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tilt formula: Straight Pick Stats |
Big favourite means >65% win chance according to bookies. Big underdog is <35% chance.
| |
Picks |
Correct |
% Correct |
Units Bet |
Units Profit |
Profit per Pick |
ROI |
| Big Favorites |
10 (37%) |
9 |
90 % |
43.00 |
9.42 |
0.94 |
22% |
| Slight Favorites |
9 (33%) |
6 |
67 % |
20.00 |
4.44 |
0.49 |
22% |
| Slight Underdogs |
4 (15%) |
1 |
25 % |
8.00 |
-1.52 |
-0.38 |
-19% |
| Big Underdogs |
4 (15%) |
1 |
25 % |
3.75 |
0.05 |
0.01 |
1% |
Betting Stats By Card Position
| |
Picks |
Correct |
% Correct |
Units Bet |
Units Profit |
Profit per Pick |
ROI |
| Main Event |
5 (19%) |
3 |
60 % |
12.00 |
1.12 |
0.22 |
9% |
| Co-Main Event |
1 (4%) |
0 |
0 % |
0.75 |
-0.75 |
-0.75 |
-100% |
| Position 3-5 |
6 (22%) |
5 |
83 % |
21.00 |
10.07 |
1.68 |
48% |
| 6+ (Undercard) |
15 (56%) |
9 |
60 % |
41.00 |
1.96 |
0.13 |
5% |
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tilt formula: Profit by Weight Class |
| |
Picks |
Correct |
% Correct |
Units Bet |
Units Profit |
Profit per Pick |
ROI |
| Heavyweight |
5 (19%) |
1 |
20 % |
12.00 |
-6.17 |
-1.23 |
-51% |
| Light Heavy |
3 (11%) |
3 |
100 % |
9.00 |
4.12 |
1.37 |
46% |
| Welterweight |
3 (11%) |
2 |
67 % |
9.00 |
3.43 |
1.14 |
38% |
| Lightweight |
4 (15%) |
2 |
50 % |
11.00 |
-1.31 |
-0.33 |
-12% |
| Featherweight |
1 (4%) |
1 |
100 % |
2.00 |
1.44 |
1.44 |
72% |
| Bantamweight |
3 (11%) |
2 |
67 % |
8.00 |
4.29 |
1.43 |
54% |
| Flyweight |
3 (11%) |
3 |
100 % |
15.00 |
3.60 |
1.20 |
24% |
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| Women's Fights |
5 (19%) |
3 |
60 % |
8.75 |
2.99 |
0.60 |
34% |
| Bantamweight |
4 (15%) |
3 |
75 % |
8.00 |
3.74 |
0.93 |
47% |
| Strawweight |
1 (4%) |
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0 % |
0.75 |
-0.75 |
-0.75 |
-100% |
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Props & Parlay Section Stats (Individual sections of this handicapper's parlays) |
Straight picks within parlays
| |
Picks |
Correct |
% Correct |
| Big Favorites |
2 (100%) |
1 |
50 % |
| Slight Favorites |
0 (0%) |
0 |
nan % |
| Slight Underdogs |
0 (0%) |
0 |
nan % |
| Big Underdogs |
0 (0%) |
0 |
nan % |
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2 |
1 |
50 % |
Props bets and props within parlays
| |
Picks |
Correct |
% Correct |
| >65% chance |
0 (nan%) |
0 |
nan % |
| 50-65% |
0 (nan%) |
0 |
nan % |
| 35-50% |
0 (nan%) |
0 |
nan % |
| <35% chance |
0 (nan%) |
0 |
nan % |
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0 |
0 |
nan % |
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Prop Bets and Props within Parlays: Bet Types |
| Prop Type |
Picks |
Correct |
% Correct |
Avg
Odds |
Longest
Odds |
Shortest
Odds |
1U Bet (ROI %) |
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0 |
0 |
nan % |
nan |
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0.0 (nan%) |
* 1U Bet (ROI %): Many of the picks will have been part of a parlay, however, as a rough guide to value / profitability, this figure supposes that the handicapper put a 1U bet on each of the picks individually, showing the profit / loss they would have made and the ROI %. |
Tail tilt formula's bets |
If you had tailed this handicapper's bets since they started logging their picks with us, it would have affected your betting bank balance as follows...
This is more accurate than simply X units total profit. Under that more basic system, 1 unit is equal to the same amount of theoretical dollars, whether it was the last event or 10 events ago. However, if a handicapper has 10 events profit in a row, their betting bank balance will be significantly larger for the 10th event and 1 unit will equal a LOT more than it did 10 events ago.
| Date |
Event |
Bet |
Won |
ROI |
Fee |
1 unit = |
Start |
End |
| 11th Nov |
UFC 295 |
1 |
-1.0 |
-100% |
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$10.00 |
$1,000.00 |
$990.00 |
| 5th Dec |
Brave CF 77 |
5 |
4.0 |
80% |
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$9.90 |
$990.00 |
$1,029.60 |
| 9th Dec |
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez |
11 |
1.0 |
9% |
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$10.30 |
$1,029.60 |
$1,039.89 |
| 16th Dec |
UFC 296 |
5 |
0.9 |
19% |
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$10.40 |
$1,039.89 |
$1,049.77 |
| 13th Jan |
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker |
10 |
2.1 |
21% |
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$10.50 |
$1,049.77 |
$1,071.66 |
| 24th Feb |
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval |
2 |
1.3 |
65% |
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$10.72 |
$1,071.66 |
$1,085.51 |
| 2nd Mar |
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev |
13 |
-6.4 |
-49% |
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$10.86 |
$1,085.51 |
$1,016.03 |
| 9th Mar |
UFC 299 |
11 |
2.1 |
19% |
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$10.16 |
$1,016.03 |
$1,037.68 |
| 6th Apr |
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis II |
5 |
0.6 |
13% |
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$10.38 |
$1,037.68 |
$1,044.32 |
| 13th Apr |
UFC 300 |
16.75 |
2.7 |
16% |
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$10.44 |
$1,044.32 |
$1,072.49 |
ROI % from starting bank balance: 7.25% (including fees)
*Note - we don't store historical fee amounts, so we assume the fees are the same as the handicapper charges now. |
tilt formula: Last 20 Wins / Losses (Straight Picks) |
Last 20 Wins
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Date |
Straight Pick |
Opponent |
Odds |
Bet |
Result |
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| 1. |
Apr '24 |
Diego Lopes |
Sodiq Yusuff |
1.72 |
2 |
TKO, R1 (1:29) |
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| 2. |
Apr '24 |
Kayla Harrison |
Holly Holm |
1.22 |
5 |
Sub, R2 (1:47) |
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| 3. |
Apr '24 |
Alex Pereira |
Jamahal Hill |
1.74 |
2 |
TKO, R1 (3:14) |
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| 4. |
Apr '24 |
Norma Dumont |
Germaine de Randamie |
1.84 |
1 |
U Decision (3 rounds) |
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| 5. |
Apr '24 |
Nora Cornolle |
Melissa Dixon |
3.80 |
1 |
TKO, R2 (3:6) |
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| 6. |
Mar '24 |
Michael Page |
Kevin Holland |
2.16 |
3 |
U Decision (3 rounds) |
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| 7. |
Mar '24 |
Muhammad Mokaev |
Alex Perez |
1.32 |
5 |
U Decision (3 rounds) |
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| 8. |
Apr '24 |
Arman Tsarukyan |
Charles Oliveira |
1.52 |
2 |
Split Decision (3 rounds) |
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| 9. |
Apr '24 |
Alex Pereira |
Jamahal Hill |
1.69 |
2 |
TKO, R1 (3:14) |
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| 10. |
Feb '24 |
Raoni Barcelos |
Christian Quinonez |
1.65 |
2 |
Sub, R3 (2:4) |
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| 11. |
Mar '24 |
Mateusz Gamrot |
Rafael dos Anjos |
1.33 |
5 |
U Decision (3 rounds) |
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| 12. |
Jan '24 |
Waldo Cortes-Acosta |
Andrei Arlovski |
1.17 |
5 |
U Decision (3 rounds) |
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| 13. |
Jan '24 |
Magomed Ankalaev |
Johnny Walker |
1.25 |
5 |
TKO, R2 (2:42) |
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| 14. |
Dec '23 |
Shavkat Rakhmonov |
Stephen Thompson |
1.19 |
5 |
Sub, R2 (4:56) |
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| 15. |
Dec '23 |
Tatsuro Taira |
Carlos Hernandez |
1.19 |
5 |
TKO, R2 (0:55) |
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| 16. |
Dec '23 |
Vitaliy Yakimenko |
Maysara Mohamed |
1.80 |
5 |
Sub, R1 (2:10) |
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| 17. |
Dec '23 |
Hyun Sung Park |
Shannon Ross |
1.21 |
5 |
TKO, R2 (3:59) |
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Last 20 Losses
* Hedge indicates that this handicapper also had a WINNING bet on the opponent. For example, they may have bet A to win straight up but with a hedge on the other fighter winning by decision. |
tilt formula: Progress Chart |
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