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MMA Handicapper Stats: Jasper Mabey

Jasper Mabey (BigRedJasp)

MMA MHandicapper - Jasper Mabey

MMA Betting Stats Summary

Overall Stats		Straight Fight Picks		Props		Parlays
Right	120 (35%)	Right	67 (50%)	Right	48 (24%)	Right	5 (71%)
Wrong	220 (65%)	Wrong	67 (50%)	Wrong	151 (76%)	Wrong	2 (29%)
Avg Odds	2.84	Avg Odds	2.05	Avg Odds	3.97	Avg Odds	1.73
Units Bet	308.9	Units Bet	188.2	Units Bet	108.8	Units Bet	12.0
Avg Bet	0.91	Avg Bet	1.40	Avg Bet	0.55	Avg Bet	1.71
Units Profit	-1.68	Units Profit	4.32	Units Profit	-7.91	Units Profit	1.91
ROI %	-1%	ROI %	2%	ROI %	-7%	ROI %	16%

Jasper Mabey: Event by Event Predictions

The straight picks, parlays and props sections display Winnings / Bets (ROI%)

Date	Event	Bet	Won	ROI	Straight Picks	Props	Parlays
27th Apr '24	UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs Perez	8	-2.5	-32%	-0.1 / 5.6 (-2%)	-2.4 / 2.4 (-100%)
19th Apr '24	PFL 3: 2024 Regular Season	1.5	1.0	69%	1.0 / 1.5 (69%)
13th Apr '24	UFC 300	9.1	-2.2	-24%	-2.4 / 5.4 (-44%)	0.2 / 3.7 (6%)
6th Apr '24	UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis II	9.5	-9.5	-100%	-5.4 / 5.4 (-100%)	-4.1 / 4.1 (-100%)
30th Mar '24	UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot	9.4	0.1	1%	-1.3 / 5.8 (-22%)	1.4 / 3.6 (39%)
23rd Mar '24	UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas	6.5	1.7	26%	-3.0 / 3 (-100%)	4.7 / 3.5 (134%)
16th Mar '24	UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Tybura	7.55	2.4	32%		2.4 / 7.55 (32%)
9th Mar '24	UFC 299	10.5	-2.8	-26%	-0.3 / 8 (-3%)	-2.5 / 2.5 (-100%)
2nd Mar '24	UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev	2.7	2.1	78%	2.1 / 2.7 (78%)
2nd Mar '24	Oktagon 54	1	-1.0	-100%	-1.0 / 1 (-100%)
17th Feb '24	UFC 298	7.7	7.4	96%	7.9 / 7.2 (109%)	-0.5 / 0.5 (-100%)
10th Feb '24	UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer	4.65	2.3	50%	1.7 / 2.5 (66%)	0.7 / 2.15 (30%)
3rd Feb '24	UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Imavov	4.4	3.2	74%	1.0 / 1.5 (67%)	2.2 / 2.9 (78%)
20th Jan '24	UFC 297	11.8	0.4	4%	-1.6 / 6.1 (-27%)	2.1 / 5.7 (36%)
13th Jan '24	UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker	5.4	-1.2	-23%	2.2 / 2 (108%)	-3.4 / 3.4 (-100%)
16th Dec '23	UFC 296	14.51	6.6	46%	3.9 / 8.81 (45%)	1.6 / 4.2 (39%)	1.1 / 1.5 (71%)
9th Dec '23	UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez	7.92	-3.5	-44%	-2.2 / 5.5 (-39%)	-1.4 / 2.42 (-56%)
2nd Dec '23	UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan	10.05	-6.8	-68%	-2.8 / 6 (-46%)	-4.1 / 4.05 (-100%)
24th Nov '23	PFL 10: 2023 PFL World Championship	6	-1.4	-23%	1.1 / 3.5 (33%)	-2.5 / 2.5 (-100%)
18th Nov '23	UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig	10	-7.8	-78%	-6.5 / 8.7 (-74%)	-1.3 / 1.3 (-100%)
11th Nov '23	UFC 295	18.2	5.0	27%	7.0 / 13.3 (53%)	-2.0 / 4.9 (-41%)
4th Nov '23	UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Almeida	8.5	-4.3	-51%	0.1 / 2.1 (5%)	-0.4 / 2.4 (-17%)	-4.0 / 4 (-100%)
21st Oct '23	UFC 294	19.63	6.1	31%	7.3 / 16.43 (45%)	-1.2 / 3.2 (-38%)
14th Oct '23	UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Barboza	11.2	-1.5	-13%	-0.8 / 6 (-13%)	-0.7 / 5.2 (-13%)
10th Oct '23	Contender Series 2023: Week 10	4.1	2.9	71%		1.9 / 2.9 (64%)	1.0 / 1.2 (87%)
7th Oct '23	UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Green	8.9	-4.3	-48%	-2.1 / 4.5 (-46%)	-2.2 / 4.4 (-50%)
30th Sep '23	PFL Europe 3: 2023 Playoffs	1	-1.0	-100%	-1.0 / 1 (-100%)
29th Sep '23	Cage Warriors 160	1.1	1.0	91%	1.0 / 1.1 (91%)
26th Sep '23	Contender Series 2023: Week 8	5.2	0.3	5%	0.7 / 3.5 (20%)	-0.4 / 1.7 (-25%)
23rd Sep '23	UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gamrot	10.1	0.9	9%	0.6 / 5 (12%)	-1.1 / 3.1 (-37%)	1.5 / 2 (73%)
23rd Sep '23	Bellator 299	5.4	0.9	17%	-0.0 / 2.2 (-2%)	1.0 / 3.2 (30%)
22nd Sep '23	LFA 168	1	1.5	150%	1.5 / 1 (150%)
19th Sep '23	Contender Series 2023: Week 7	6.1	0.2	3%	-0.2 / 3.1 (-7%)	0.4 / 3 (14%)
16th Sep '23	UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Shevchenko II	10.45	1.1	11%	-1.9 / 5.5 (-34%)	3.0 / 4.95 (60%)
16th Sep '23	KSW 86	1	-1.0	-100%	-1.0 / 1 (-100%)
16th Sep '23	Oktagon 46	1	-1.0	-100%	-1.0 / 1 (-100%)
12th Sep '23	Contender Series 2023: Week 6	2.8	0.6	23%		-0.1 / 1.8 (-6%)	0.7 / 1 (75%)
9th Sep '23	UFC 293	11.5	5.8	50%	3.0 / 5 (60%)	1.2 / 4.25 (29%)	1.6 / 2.25 (70%)
5th Sep '23	Contender Series 2023: Week 5	2.5	-0.1	-5%	-0.1 / 2.5 (-5%)
2nd Sep '23	UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Spivac	12.95	0.6	5%	2.1 / 11.5 (18%)	-1.5 / 1.45 (-100%)
29th Aug '23	Contender Series 2023: Week 4	7.48	-7.5	-100%	-4.8 / 4.75 (-100%)	-2.7 / 2.73 (-100%)
26th Aug '23	UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Jung	11.15	3.3	30%	-0.5 / 7.5 (-7%)	3.8 / 3.65 (104%)

Winning Events: 24 (57%)
Losing Events: 18 (43%)

Average Staked Per Event: 7.37 units
Most Staked On One Event: 19.63 units
Best Event: 7.36 units
Worst Event: -9.50 units
Average Event: -0.04 units

Max Win Streak: Events: 7, Units: 13.35
Max Losing Streak: Events: 4, Units: -19.45

Jasper Mabey: Year on Year Profit

Year	Bet	Won	ROI	Straight Won / Bet (ROI%)	Prop Won / Bet (ROI%)	Parlay Won / Bet (ROI%)	Events Won / Lost (%)	Profit Per Event
2024	99.7	1.4	1%	0.7 / 57.7 (1%)			9 / 6 (60%)	0.10
2023	209.74	-3.1	-1%	3.7 / 130.49 (3%)		1.9 / 11.95 (16%)	15 / 12 (56%)	-0.12

Jasper Mabey: Yearly Straight Pick Stats

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Jasper Mabey: Profit / Loss by Organization

Organization	Bet	Won	ROI	Straight Picks	Props	Parlays
UFC	262.26	2.8	1%	8.1 / 161.04 (5%)	-5.4 / 91.47 (-6%)	0.1 / 9.75 (1%)
Bellator	5.4	0.9	17%	-0.0 / 2.2 (-2%)	1.0 / 3.2 (30%)
PFL	8.5	-1.3	-15%	1.2 / 6 (20%)	-2.5 / 2.5 (-100%)
Other	33.28	-4.1	-12%	-4.9 / 18.95 (-26%)	-1.0 / 12.13 (-8%)	1.8 / 2.2 (82%)

Jasper Mabey: Straight Pick Stats

Big favourite means >65% win chance according to bookies. Big underdog is <35% chance.

	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Units Bet	Units Profit	Profit per Pick	ROI
Big Favorites	10 (7%)	10	100 %	23.71	10.23	1.02	43%
Slight Favorites	58 (42%)	38	66 %	91.85	3.40	0.06	4%
Slight Underdogs	50 (36%)	17	34 %	55.71	-7.15	-0.14	-13%
Big Underdogs	21 (15%)	5	24 %	16.92	-2.16	-0.10	-13%

Betting Stats By Card Position

	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Units Bet	Units Profit	Profit per Pick	ROI
Main Event	21 (15%)	11	52 %	30.93	1.87	0.09	6%
Co-Main Event	14 (10%)	11	79 %	21.30	9.37	0.67	44%
Position 3-5	42 (30%)	18	43 %	61.65	-8.40	-0.20	-14%
6+ (Undercard)	62 (45%)	30	48 %	74.31	1.49	0.02	2%

Jasper Mabey: Profit by Weight Class

	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Units Bet	Units Profit	Profit per Pick	ROI
Heavyweight	8 (6%)	5	63 %	12.00	3.87	0.48	32%
Light Heavy	8 (6%)	5	63 %	9.20	3.27	0.41	36%
Middleweight	20 (14%)	10	50 %	25.30	-0.11	-0.01	-0%
Welterweight	16 (12%)	6	38 %	17.70	-3.92	-0.25	-22%
Lightweight	20 (14%)	14	70 %	29.33	9.87	0.49	34%
Featherweight	18 (13%)	8	44 %	26.65	-3.33	-0.18	-12%
Bantamweight	16 (12%)	6	38 %	22.00	-5.56	-0.35	-25%
Flyweight	12 (9%)	7	58 %	19.10	3.70	0.31	19%

Women's Fights	21 (15%)	9	43 %	26.91	-3.46	-0.16	-13%
Featherweight	1 (1%)		0 %	0.50	-0.50	-0.50	-100%
Bantamweight	6 (4%)	2	33 %	6.71	-1.20	-0.20	-18%
Flyweight	8 (6%)	4	50 %	12.80	-1.63	-0.20	-13%
Strawweight	6 (4%)	3	50 %	6.90	-0.14	-0.02	-2%

Props & Parlay Section Stats (Individual sections of this handicapper's parlays)

Straight picks within parlays

	Picks	Correct	% Correct
Big Favorites	11 (100%)	10	91 %
Slight Favorites	0 (0%)	0	nan %
Slight Underdogs	0 (0%)	0	nan %
Big Underdogs	0 (0%)	0	nan %
	11	10	91 %

Props bets and props within parlays

	Picks	Correct	% Correct
>65% chance	4 (2%)	3	75 %
50-65%	25 (12%)	12	48 %
35-50%	33 (16%)	11	33 %
<35% chance	142 (70%)	24	17 %
	204	50	25 %

Prop Bets and Props within Parlays: Bet Types

Prop Type	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Avg Odds	Longest Odds	Shortest Odds	1U Bet (ROI %)
Over (e.g. 1.5 / 2.5 rnds)	6 (3%)	5	83 %	1.94	2.35	1.65	3.7 (61%)
Under (e.g. 1.5 / 2.5 rnds)	19 (9%)	10	53 %	1.75	3.00	1.30	-0.9 (-5%)
Does not go to Decision	4 (2%)	2	50 %	2.05	2.80	1.61	-0.1 (-4%)
X Wins by KO	7 (3%)	2	29 %	3.19	7.00	1.57	3.6 (51%)
X Wins by Sub	19 (9%)	3	16 %	5.16	9.50	2.75	-2.0 (-11%)
X Wins by Decision	10 (5%)	2	20 %	4.49	8.50	2.50	2.0 (20%)
X Wins Inside Distance	25 (12%)	8	32 %	2.46	5.50	1.67	-2.9 (-12%)
X Wins in Round X	56 (27%)	9	16 %	7.85	26.00	3.80	4.1 (7%)
Others	58 (28%)	9	16 %	5.10	41.00	1.44	-27.9 (-48%)
	204	50	25 %	3.87			-20.5 (-10%)

* 1U Bet (ROI %): Many of the picks will have been part of a parlay, however, as a rough guide to value / profitability, this figure supposes that the handicapper put a 1U bet on each of the picks individually, showing the profit / loss they would have made and the ROI %.

Tail Jasper Mabey's bets

If you had tailed this handicapper's bets since they started logging their picks with us, it would have affected your betting bank balance as follows...

This is more accurate than simply X units total profit. Under that more basic system, 1 unit is equal to the same amount of theoretical dollars, whether it was the last event or 10 events ago. However, if a handicapper has 10 events profit in a row, their betting bank balance will be significantly larger for the 10th event and 1 unit will equal a LOT more than it did 10 events ago.

Date	Event	Bet	Won	ROI	Fee	1 unit =	Start	End
26th Aug	UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Jung	11.15	3.3	30%		$10.00	$1,000.00	$1,033.05
29th Aug	Contender Series 2023: Week 4	7.48	-7.5	-100%		$10.33	$1,033.05	$955.78
2nd Sep	UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Spivac	12.95	0.6	5%		$9.56	$955.78	$961.82
5th Sep	Contender Series 2023: Week 5	2.5	-0.1	-5%		$9.62	$961.82	$960.69
9th Sep	UFC 293	11.5	5.8	50%		$9.61	$960.69	$1,016.46
12th Sep	Contender Series 2023: Week 6	2.8	0.6	23%		$10.16	$1,016.46	$1,022.96
16th Sep	Oktagon 46	1	-1.0	-100%		$10.23	$1,022.96	$1,012.73
16th Sep	KSW 86	1	-1.0	-100%		$10.13	$1,012.73	$1,002.61
16th Sep	UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Shevchenko II	10.45	1.1	11%		$10.03	$1,002.61	$1,013.64
19th Sep	Contender Series 2023: Week 7	6.1	0.2	3%		$10.14	$1,013.64	$1,015.61
22nd Sep	LFA 168	1	1.5	150%		$10.16	$1,015.61	$1,030.85
23rd Sep	Bellator 299	5.4	0.9	17%		$10.31	$1,030.85	$1,040.48
23rd Sep	UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gamrot	10.1	0.9	9%		$10.40	$1,040.48	$1,050.21
26th Sep	Contender Series 2023: Week 8	5.2	0.3	5%		$10.50	$1,050.21	$1,053.15
29th Sep	Cage Warriors 160	1.1	1.0	91%		$10.53	$1,053.15	$1,063.68
30th Sep	PFL Europe 3: 2023 Playoffs	1	-1.0	-100%		$10.64	$1,063.68	$1,053.04
7th Oct	UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Green	8.9	-4.3	-48%		$10.53	$1,053.04	$1,007.86
10th Oct	Contender Series 2023: Week 10	4.1	2.9	71%		$10.08	$1,007.86	$1,037.05
14th Oct	UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Barboza	11.2	-1.5	-13%		$10.37	$1,037.05	$1,021.93
21st Oct	UFC 294	19.63	6.1	31%		$10.22	$1,021.93	$1,084.63
4th Nov	UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Almeida	8.5	-4.3	-51%		$10.85	$1,084.63	$1,037.95
11th Nov	UFC 295	18.2	5.0	27%		$10.38	$1,037.95	$1,089.79
18th Nov	UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig	10	-7.8	-78%		$10.90	$1,089.79	$1,005.26
24th Nov	PFL 10: 2023 PFL World Championship	6	-1.4	-23%		$10.05	$1,005.26	$991.69
2nd Dec	UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan	10.05	-6.8	-68%		$9.92	$991.69	$924.03
9th Dec	UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez	7.92	-3.5	-44%		$9.24	$924.03	$891.46
16th Dec	UFC 296	14.51	6.6	46%		$8.91	$891.46	$950.50
13th Jan	UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker	5.4	-1.2	-23%		$9.51	$950.50	$938.62
20th Jan	UFC 297	11.8	0.4	4%		$9.39	$938.62	$942.68
3rd Feb	UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Imavov	4.4	3.2	74%		$9.43	$942.68	$973.31
10th Feb	UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer	4.65	2.3	50%		$9.73	$973.31	$995.82
17th Feb	UFC 298	7.7	7.4	96%		$9.96	$995.82	$1,069.07
2nd Mar	Oktagon 54	1	-1.0	-100%		$10.69	$1,069.07	$1,058.38
2nd Mar	UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev	2.7	2.1	78%		$10.58	$1,058.38	$1,080.60
9th Mar	UFC 299	10.5	-2.8	-26%		$10.81	$1,080.60	$1,050.71
16th Mar	UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Tybura	7.55	2.4	32%		$10.51	$1,050.71	$1,075.75
23rd Mar	UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas	6.5	1.7	26%		$10.76	$1,075.75	$1,094.03
30th Mar	UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot	9.4	0.1	1%		$10.94	$1,094.03	$1,095.13
6th Apr	UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis II	9.5	-9.5	-100%		$10.95	$1,095.13	$991.09
13th Apr	UFC 300	9.1	-2.2	-24%		$9.91	$991.09	$969.49
19th Apr	PFL 3: 2024 Regular Season	1.5	1.0	69%		$9.69	$969.49	$979.51
27th Apr	UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs Perez	8	-2.5	-32%		$9.80	$979.51	$954.82

ROI % from starting bank balance: -4.52% (including fees)
*Note - we don't store historical fee amounts, so we assume the fees are the same as the handicapper charges now.

Jasper Mabey: Last 20 Wins / Losses (Straight Picks)

Last 20 Wins

	Date	Straight Pick	Opponent	Odds	Bet	Result
1.	Apr '24	Alex Perez	Matheus Nicolau	2.50	1.3	TKO, R2 (2:16)
2.	Apr '24	Karine Silva	Ariane Lipski	1.71	1.3	U Decision (3 rounds)
3.	Apr '24	Magomed Umalatov	Andrey Koreshkov	1.69	1.5	U Decision (3 rounds)
4.	Apr '24	Max Holloway	Justin Gaethje	2.50	1.2	TKO, R5 (4:59)
5.	Mar '24	Joaquin Buckley	Vicente Luque	2.10	1	TKO, R2 (3:17)
6.	Mar '24	Chris Weidman	Bruno Silva	3.00	0.8	U Decision (3 rounds)
7.	Mar '24	Philipe Lins	Ion Cutelaba	2.20	2	U Decision (3 rounds)
8.	Mar '24	Loik Radzhabov	Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady	2.30	1	TKO, R3 (0:49)
9.	Mar '24	Jairzinho Rozenstruik	Shamil Gaziev	2.50	1	TKO, R4 (5:0)
10.	Mar '24	Petr Yan	Yadong Song	1.67	2	U Decision (3 rounds)
11.	Feb '24	Anthony Hernandez	Roman Kopylov	1.57	2	Sub, R2 (3:23)
12.	Feb '24	Dan Ige	Andre Fili	1.57	1.5	TKO, R1 (2:43)
13.	Feb '24	Mingyang Zhang	Brendson Ribeiro	1.83	1	TKO, R1 (1:41)
14.	Feb '24	Amanda Lemos	Mackenzie Dern	1.72	1.2	U Decision (3 rounds)
15.	Feb '24	Michael Johnson	Darrius Flowers	1.80	1	U Decision (3 rounds)
16.	Jan '24	Dricus Du Plessis	Sean Strickland	2.10	1	Split Decision (5 rounds)
17.	Jan '24	Movsar Evloev	Arnold Allen	1.57	1.5	U Decision (3 rounds)
18.	Jan '24	Brunno Ferreira	Phil Hawes	2.10	1	TKO, R1 (4:55)
19.	Jan '24	Brunno Ferreira	Phil Hawes	2.05	1	TKO, R1 (4:55)
20.	Feb '24	Nassourdine Imavov	Roman Dolidze	1.67	1.5	Split Decision (5 rounds)

Last 20 Losses

	Date	Straight Pick	Opponent	Odds	Bet	Result	Hedge?
1.	Apr '24	Jonathan Pearce	David Onama	1.67	3	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
2.	Apr '24	Marina Alcalde Rodriguez	Jessica Andrade	2.10	1	Split Decision (3 rounds)	No
3.	Apr '24	Aleksandar Rakic	Jiri Prochazka	1.80	1.2	TKO, R2 (3:17)	No
4.	Apr '24	Morgan Charriere	Jose Mariscal	1.83	1.2	Split Decision (3 rounds)	No
5.	Apr '24	Germaine de Randamie	Norma Dumont	2.37	1.2	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
6.	Apr '24	Dan Argueta	Jean Matsumoto	2.40	2	Sub, R2 (4:59)	No
7.	Apr '24	Chris Curtis	Brendan Allen	2.75	1	Split Decision (5 rounds)	No
8.	Mar '24	Anton Turkalj	Ibo Aslan	2.10	1	TKO, R3 (1:32)	No
9.	Mar '24	Cameron Saaiman	Payton Talbott	2.30	1	TKO, R2 (0:21)	No
10.	Mar '24	AJ Dobson	Edmen Shahbazyan	2.62	1	TKO, R1 (4:33)	No
11.	Apr '24	Jim Miller	Bobby Green	2.50	1	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
12.	Mar '24	Amanda Ribas	Rose Namajunas	3.20	1	U Decision (5 rounds)	No
13.	Mar '24	Erin Blanchfield	Manon Fiorot	1.72	3	U Decision (5 rounds)	No
14.	Mar '24	Michal Oleksiejczuk	Michel Pereira	2.20	1	Sub, R1 (1:1)	No
15.	Mar '24	Jailton Junior	Curtis Blaydes	1.91	2	TKO, R2 (0:36)	No
16.	Mar '24	Gilbert Burns	Jack Della Maddalena	2.30	1	TKO, R3 (3:43)	No
17.	Mar '24	Makwan Amirkhani	Mochamed Machaev	2.30	1	TKO, R3 (0:6)	No
18.	Mar '24	Alex Perez	Muhammad Mokaev	3.75	0.7	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
19.	Apr '24	Jamahal Hill	Alex Pereira	2.30	1	TKO, R1 (3:14)	No
20.	Jan '24	Marc-Andre Barriault	Chris Curtis	2.65	1	Split Decision (3 rounds)	No

* Hedge indicates that this handicapper also had a WINNING bet on the opponent. For example, they may have bet A to win straight up but with a hedge on the other fighter winning by decision.

Jasper Mabey: Progress Chart

Chart

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