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MMA Handicapper Stats: Michael Villanueva

Michael Villanueva (HeartbreakKid23)

MMA MHandicapper - Michael Villanueva

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MMA Betting Stats Summary

Overall Stats

Straight Fight Picks

Props

Parlays
Right 134 (57%) Right 123 (61%) Right 8 (32%) Right 3 (27%)
Wrong 103 (43%) Wrong 78 (39%) Wrong 17 (68%) Wrong 8 (73%)
Avg Odds 1.81 Avg Odds 1.74 Avg Odds 1.84 Avg Odds 5.06
Units Bet 1,635.5 Units Bet 1,493.0 Units Bet 80.0 Units Bet 62.5
Avg Bet 6.90 Avg Bet 7.43 Avg Bet 3.20 Avg Bet 5.68
Units Profit 29.56 Units Profit 41.10 Units Profit -42.91 Units Profit 31.36
ROI % 2% ROI % 3% ROI % -54% ROI % 50%
View Handicapper's Profile

Michael Villanueva: Event by Event Predictions
The straight picks, parlays and props sections display Winnings / Bets (ROI%)

Date Event Bet Won ROI Straight Picks Props Parlays
30th Mar '24 UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot 64 38.4 60% 38.4 / 64 (60%)
17th Feb '24 UFC 298 100 -3.7 -4% -3.7 / 100 (-4%)
3rd Feb '24 UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Imavov 90 -56.7 -63% -56.7 / 90 (-63%)
20th Jan '24 UFC 297 56 17.4 31% 22.4 / 51 (44%) -5.0 / 5 (-100%)
13th Jan '24 UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 70 14.1 20% 14.1 / 70 (20%)
16th Dec '23 UFC 296 90 -28.0 -31% -28.0 / 90 (-31%)
9th Dec '23 UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez 100 5.4 5% 5.4 / 100 (5%)
11th Nov '23 UFC 295 100 -2.8 -3% -2.8 / 100 (-3%)
4th Nov '23 UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Almeida 80 -6.6 -8% -6.6 / 80 (-8%)
21st Oct '23 UFC 294 82 -29.2 -36% -29.2 / 70 (-42%) 0.0 / 12 (0%)
14th Oct '23 UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Barboza 70 -16.7 -24% -16.7 / 70 (-24%)
23rd Sep '23 UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gamrot 70 -31.7 -45% -21.7 / 60 (-36%) -10.0 / 10 (-100%)
19th Sep '23 Contender Series 2023: Week 7 20 25.3 126% 25.3 / 20 (126%)
16th Sep '23 UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Shevchenko II 85 -14.9 -17% -1.7 / 50 (-3%) -3.2 / 25 (-13%) -10.0 / 10 (-100%)
9th Sep '23 UFC 293 95 7.9 8% 22.9 / 80 (29%) -5.0 / 5 (-100%) -10.0 / 10 (-100%)
5th Sep '23 Contender Series 2023: Week 5 25 -2.2 -9% 12.8 / 10 (128%) -15.0 / 15 (-100%)
2nd Sep '23 UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Spivac 95 68.5 72% 13.1 / 80 (16%) 55.4 / 15 (369%)
29th Aug '23 Contender Series 2023: Week 4 40 -26.3 -66% -16.3 / 30 (-54%) -10.0 / 10 (-100%)
26th Aug '23 UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Jung 61 36.0 59% 22.6 / 51 (44%) 13.5 / 10 (135%)
19th Aug '23 UFC 292 61 18.8 31% 20.8 / 59 (35%) -2.0 / 2 (-100%)
12th Aug '23 UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos Anjos 38 10.6 28% 10.6 / 38 (28%)
5th Aug '23 UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Font 16 1.6 10% 1.6 / 16 (10%)
29th Jul '23 UFC 291 20 4.4 22% 4.4 / 20 (22%)
22nd Jul '23 UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura 33 -7.7 -23% -5.7 / 31 (-18%) -2.0 / 2 (-100%)
8th Jul '23 UFC 290 43.5 0.5 1% 5.9 / 35 (17%) -1.9 / 5 (-37%) -3.5 / 3.5 (-100%)
1st Jul '23 UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Magomedov 22 3.4 15% 6.2 / 16 (39%) -0.8 / 4 (-21%) -2.0 / 2 (-100%)
24th Jun '23 UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Topuria 12 3.6 30% 3.6 / 12 (30%)


Winning Events: 15 (56%)
Losing Events: 12 (44%)

Average Staked Per Event: 60.69 units
Most Staked On One Event: 100.00 units
Best Event: 68.54 units
Worst Event: -56.71 units
Average Event: 1.09 units

Max Win Streak: Events: 5, Units: 71.48
Max Losing Streak: Events: 5, Units: -86.98

Michael Villanueva: Year on Year Profit
Year Bet Won ROI Straight
Won / Bet (ROI%)		 Prop
Won / Bet (ROI%)		 Parlay
Won / Bet (ROI%)		 Events
Won / Lost (%)		 Profit
Per Event
2024 380 9.6 3% 14.6 / 375 (4%) 3 / 2 (60%) 1.92
2023 1258.5 20.0 2% 26.5 / 1118 (2%) 31.4 / 62.5 (50%) 12 / 10 (55%) 0.91

Michael Villanueva: Yearly Straight Pick Stats
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Michael Villanueva: Profit / Loss by Organization
Organization Bet Won ROI Straight Picks Props Parlays
UFC 1553.5 32.8 2% 19.3 / 1433 (1%) -17.9 / 58 (-31%) 31.4 / 62.5 (50%)
Other 85 -3.2 -4% 21.8 / 60 (36%) -25.0 / 25 (-100%)

Michael Villanueva: Straight Pick Stats

Big favourite means >65% win chance according to bookies. Big underdog is <35% chance.

  Picks Correct % Correct Units Bet Units Profit Profit per Pick ROI
Big Favorites 89 (41%) 65 73 % 645.00 51.22 0.58 8%
Slight Favorites 45 (21%) 35 78 % 265.00 77.43 1.72 29%
Slight Underdogs 53 (25%) 24 45 % 385.00 2.45 0.05 1%
Big Underdogs 28 (13%) 8 29 % 198.00 -90.00 -3.21 -45%



Betting Stats By Card Position

  Picks Correct % Correct Units Bet Units Profit Profit per Pick ROI
Main Event 24 (11%) 14 58 % 191.00 11.46 0.48 6%
Co-Main Event 19 (9%) 14 74 % 135.00 43.66 2.30 32%
Position 3-5 51 (24%) 24 47 % 373.00 -45.98 -0.90 -12%
6+ (Undercard) 121 (56%) 80 66 % 794.00 31.95 0.26 4%

Michael Villanueva: Profit by Weight Class
  Picks Correct % Correct Units Bet Units Profit Profit per Pick ROI
Heavyweight 15 (7%) 11 73 % 133.00 10.12 0.67 8%
Light Heavy 12 (6%) 7 58 % 87.00 -29.43 -2.45 -34%
Middleweight 32 (15%) 24 75 % 225.00 58.97 1.84 26%
Welterweight 26 (12%) 15 58 % 140.00 -2.17 -0.08 -2%
Lightweight 37 (17%) 16 43 % 227.00 -57.33 -1.55 -25%
Featherweight 22 (10%) 9 41 % 164.00 -31.81 -1.45 -19%
Bantamweight 22 (10%) 16 73 % 184.00 37.33 1.70 20%
Flyweight 18 (8%) 13 72 % 112.00 2.09 0.12 2%
               
Women's Fights 31 (14%) 21 68 % 221.00 53.33 1.72 24%
Bantamweight 7 (3%) 4 57 % 61.00 -8.82 -1.26 -14%
Flyweight 11 (5%) 8 73 % 60.00 26.16 2.38 44%
Strawweight 13 (6%) 9 69 % 100.00 35.98 2.77 36%

Props & Parlay Section Stats (Individual sections of this handicapper's parlays)

Straight picks within parlays

  Picks Correct % Correct
Big Favorites 33 (70%) 22 67 %
Slight Favorites 7 (15%) 7 100 %
Slight Underdogs 5 (11%) 3 60 %
Big Underdogs 2 (4%) 0 0 %
47 32 68 %

 

Props bets and props within parlays

  Picks Correct % Correct
>65% chance 8 (29%) 4 50 %
50-65% 11 (39%) 4 36 %
35-50% 4 (14%) 0 0 %
<35% chance 5 (18%) 1 20 %
28 9 32 %

Prop Bets and Props within Parlays: Bet Types
Prop Type Picks Correct % Correct Avg
Odds		 Longest
Odds		 Shortest
Odds		 1U Bet (ROI %)
Over (e.g. 1.5 / 2.5 rnds) 8 (29%) 4 50 % 1.70 4.20Pick was incorrect 1.42Pick was correct -1.8 (-22%)
Under (e.g. 1.5 / 2.5 rnds) 2 (7%) 1 50 % 1.75 1.95Pick was incorrect 1.58Pick was correct -0.4 (-21%)
Does not go to Decision 1 (4%) 1 100 % 1.55 1.55Pick was correct 1.55Pick was correct 0.5 (55%)
X Wins by KO 8 (29%) 1 13 % 1.98 3.25Pick was incorrect 1.42Pick was correct -5.6 (-70%)
X Wins by Sub 4 (14%) 1 25 % 2.09 4.20Pick was incorrect 1.48Pick was incorrect -1.0 (-25%)
X Wins by Decision 1 (4%) 0 0 % 3.40 3.40Pick was incorrect 3.40Pick was incorrect -1.0 (-100%)
Others 4 (14%) 1 25 % 1.52 1.83Pick was incorrect 1.29Pick was correct -2.7 (-68%)
28 9 32 % 1.82     -11.9 (-43%)

* 1U Bet (ROI %): Many of the picks will have been part of a parlay, however, as a rough guide to value / profitability, this figure supposes that the handicapper put a 1U bet on each of the picks individually, showing the profit / loss they would have made and the ROI %.

Tail Michael Villanueva's bets
If you had tailed this handicapper's bets since they started logging their picks with us, it would have affected your betting bank balance as follows...

This is more accurate than simply X units total profit. Under that more basic system, 1 unit is equal to the same amount of theoretical dollars, whether it was the last event or 10 events ago. However, if a handicapper has 10 events profit in a row, their betting bank balance will be significantly larger for the 10th event and 1 unit will equal a LOT more than it did 10 events ago.

Date Event Bet Won ROI Fee 1 unit = Start End
24th Jun UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Topuria 12 3.6 30% $10.00 $1,000.00 $1,036.02
1st Jul UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Magomedov 22 3.4 15% $10.36 $1,036.02 $1,070.80
8th Jul UFC 290 43.5 0.5 1% $10.71 $1,070.80 $1,076.18
22nd Jul UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura 33 -7.7 -23% $10.76 $1,076.18 $993.75
29th Jul UFC 291 20 4.4 22% $9.94 $993.75 $1,037.95
5th Aug UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Font 16 1.6 10% $10.38 $1,037.95 $1,054.38
12th Aug UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos Anjos 38 10.6 28% $10.54 $1,054.38 $1,166.22
19th Aug UFC 292 61 18.8 31% $5 $11.66 $1,166.22 $1,380.76
26th Aug UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Jung 61 36.0 59% $13.81 $1,380.76 $1,878.14
29th Aug Contender Series 2023: Week 4 40 -26.3 -66% $18.78 $1,878.14 $1,384.26
2nd Sep UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Spivac 95 68.5 72% $13.84 $1,384.26 $2,333.02
5th Sep Contender Series 2023: Week 5 25 -2.2 -9% $23.33 $2,333.02 $2,281.69
9th Sep UFC 293 95 7.9 8% $22.82 $2,281.69 $2,461.51
16th Sep UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Shevchenko II 85 -14.9 -17% $24.62 $2,461.51 $2,095.39
19th Sep Contender Series 2023: Week 7 20 25.3 126% $20.95 $2,095.39 $2,624.76
23rd Sep UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gamrot 70 -31.7 -45% $26.25 $2,624.76 $1,793.36
14th Oct UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Barboza 70 -16.7 -24% $17.93 $1,793.36 $1,493.88
21st Oct UFC 294 82 -29.2 -36% $14.94 $1,493.88 $1,057.96
4th Nov UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Almeida 80 -6.6 -8% $10.58 $1,057.96 $987.76
11th Nov UFC 295 100 -2.8 -3% $9.88 $987.76 $960.19
9th Dec UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez 100 5.4 5% $9.60 $960.19 $1,012.14
16th Dec UFC 296 90 -28.0 -31% $10.12 $1,012.14 $728.29
13th Jan UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 70 14.1 20% $7.28 $728.29 $831.21
20th Jan UFC 297 56 17.4 31% $8.31 $831.21 $975.65
3rd Feb UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Imavov 90 -56.7 -63% $9.76 $975.65 $422.36
17th Feb UFC 298 100 -3.7 -4% $4.22 $422.36 $406.87
30th Mar UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot 64 38.4 60% $4.07 $406.87 $563.28


ROI % from starting bank balance: -43.67% (including fees)
*Note - we don't store historical fee amounts, so we assume the fees are the same as the handicapper charges now.

Michael Villanueva: Last 20 Wins / Losses (Straight Picks)
Last 20 Wins
  Date Straight Pick Opponent Odds Bet Result    
1. Mar '24 Jacob Malkoun Andre Petroski 1.41 10 TKO, R2 (0:39) MMA Bookmaker
2. Mar '24 Ibo Aslan Anton Turkalj 1.77 11 TKO, R3 (1:32) MMA Bookmaker
3. Mar '24 Nursulton Ruziboev Sedriques Dumas 1.45 11 TKO, R1 (3:18) MMA Bookmaker
4. Mar '24 Chris Weidman Bruno Silva 2.75 5 U Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
5. Mar '24 Joaquin Buckley Vicente Luque 2.00 5 TKO, R2 (3:17) MMA Bookmaker
6. Mar '24 Manon Fiorot Erin Blanchfield 2.65 11 U Decision (5 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
7. Feb '24 Miranda Maverick Andrea Lee 1.55 10 U Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
8. Feb '24 Danny Barlow Josh Quinlan 1.44 10 TKO, R3 (1:18) MMA Bookmaker
9. Feb '24 Marcos Rogerio de Lima Junior Tafa 1.40 10 TKO, R2 (1:14) MMA Bookmaker
10. Feb '24 Amanda Lemos Mackenzie Dern 1.72 10 U Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
11. Feb '24 Robert Whittaker Paulo Costa 1.43 10 U Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
12. Feb '24 Ilia Topuria Alex Volkanovski 2.08 10 TKO, R2 (3:32) MMA Bookmaker
13. Feb '24 Marquel Mederos Landon Quiñones 1.74 10 U Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
14. Feb '24 Nassourdine Imavov Roman Dolidze 1.59 10 Split Decision (5 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
15. Jan '24 Jimmy Flick Malcolm Gordon 2.70 10 Sub, R2 (1:17) MMA Bookmaker
16. Jan '24 Ramon Taveras Serhiy Sidey 2.50 10 Split Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
17. Jan '24 Dricus Du Plessis Sean Strickland 1.94 11 Split Decision (5 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
18. Jan '24 Joshua Van Felipe Bunes 1.36 10 TKO, R2 (4:31) MMA Bookmaker
19. Jan '24 Farid Basharat Taylor Lapilus 1.36 10 U Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
20. Jan '24 Marcus McGhee Gaston Bolanos 1.42 10 TKO, R2 (3:29) MMA Bookmaker



Last 20 Losses

  Date Straight Pick Opponent Odds Bet Result Hedge?    
1. Mar '24 Lupita Godinez Virna Jandiroba 1.45 11 U Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
2. Feb '24 Brendson Ribeiro Mingyang Zhang 2.02 10 TKO, R1 (1:41) No MMA Bookmaker
3. Feb '24 Roman Kopylov Anthony Hernandez 2.80 10 Sub, R2 (3:23) No MMA Bookmaker
4. Feb '24 Henry Cejudo Merab Dvalishvili 3.20 10 U Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
5. Feb '24 Geoff Neal Ian Garry 3.00 10 Split Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
6. Feb '24 Thomas Petersen Jamal Pogues 1.63 10 U Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
7. Feb '24 Blake Bilder Jung Young Lee 2.40 10 U Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
8. Feb '24 Pete Rodriguez Themba Gorimbo 2.90 10 TKO, R1 (0:32) No MMA Bookmaker
9. Feb '24 Azat Maksum Charles Johnson 1.41 10 U Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
10. Feb '24 Gilbert Urbina Charlie Radtke 1.50 10 TKO, R1 (4:47) No MMA Bookmaker
11. Feb '24 Muslim Salikhov Randy Brown 3.30 10 TKO, R1 (3:17) No MMA Bookmaker
12. Feb '24 Drew Dober Renato Moicano 2.55 10 U Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
13. Jan '24 Brad Katona Garrett Armfield 1.39 10 U Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
14. Jan '24 Arnold Allen Movsar Evloev 2.55 10 U Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
15. Jan '24 Gabriel Benitez Jim Miller 2.30 10 Sub, R3 (3:25) No MMA Bookmaker
16. Jan '24 Johnny Walker Magomed Ankalaev 4.75 10 TKO, R2 (2:42) No MMA Bookmaker
17. Dec '23 Lucas Almeida Andre Fili 2.40 10 TKO, R1 (3:32) No MMA Bookmaker
18. Dec '23 Cody Durden Tagir Ulanbekov 2.45 10 Sub, R2 (4:25) No MMA Bookmaker
19. Dec '23 Casey O'Neill Ariane Lipski 1.53 10 Sub, R2 (1:18) No MMA Bookmaker
20. Dec '23 Karol Rosa Irene Aldana 2.30 10 U Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker

* Hedge indicates that this handicapper also had a WINNING bet on the opponent. For example, they may have bet A to win straight up but with a hedge on the other fighter winning by decision.

Michael Villanueva: Progress Chart
Chart

 
 
 
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