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MMA Handicapper Stats: Brett Johnson

Brett Johnson (Octagon Invest)

MMA Betting Stats Summary

Overall Stats		Straight Fight Picks		Props		Parlays
Right	58 (59%)	Right	32 (58%)	Right	14 (52%)	Right	12 (75%)
Wrong	40 (41%)	Wrong	23 (42%)	Wrong	13 (48%)	Wrong	4 (25%)
Avg Odds	1.87	Avg Odds	1.87	Avg Odds	2.13	Avg Odds	1.57
Units Bet	395.3	Units Bet	235.3	Units Bet	81.0	Units Bet	79.0
Avg Bet	4.03	Avg Bet	4.28	Avg Bet	3.00	Avg Bet	4.94
Units Profit	56.28	Units Profit	30.83	Units Profit	13.73	Units Profit	11.72
ROI %	14%	ROI %	13%	ROI %	17%	ROI %	15%

Brett Johnson: Event by Event Predictions

The straight picks, parlays and props sections display Winnings / Bets (ROI%)

Date	Event	Bet	Won	ROI	Straight Picks	Props	Parlays
13th Apr '24	UFC 300	20	1.7	8%	1.7 / 20 (8%)
6th Apr '24	UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis II	5	-5.0	-100%	-5.0 / 5 (-100%)
30th Mar '24	UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot	16	4.4	27%	2.7 / 10 (27%)	1.6 / 6 (27%)
23rd Mar '24	UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas	3	4.2	140%	4.2 / 3 (140%)
16th Mar '24	UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Tybura	3	4.8	160%	4.8 / 3 (160%)
9th Mar '24	UFC 299	23	7.1	31%	2.8 / 15 (19%)	1.7 / 3 (57%)	2.6 / 5 (52%)
2nd Mar '24	UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev	5	-5.0	-100%		-5.0 / 5 (-100%)
24th Feb '24	UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval	10	9.3	93%	4.3 / 5 (87%)	5.0 / 5 (100%)
24th Feb '24	PFL vs. Bellator: Champs	5	1.3	26%	1.3 / 5 (26%)
17th Feb '24	UFC 298	21	-1.0	-5%	1.9 / 10 (19%)	-3.0 / 11 (-27%)
10th Feb '24	UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer	8	-0.6	-7%	-0.6 / 8 (-7%)
3rd Feb '24	UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Imavov	10	-3.1	-31%	-3.1 / 10 (-31%)
20th Jan '24	UFC 297	16	-0.4	-3%	2.6 / 13 (20%)	-3.0 / 3 (-100%)
13th Jan '24	UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker	5	2.5	50%		2.5 / 5 (50%)
12th Jan '24	One Fight Night 18	5	2.0	40%	2.0 / 5 (40%)
16th Dec '23	UFC 296	15	4.8	32%	2.2 / 10 (22%)		2.6 / 5 (52%)
9th Dec '23	UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez	5	-5.0	-100%	-5.0 / 5 (-100%)
2nd Dec '23	UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan	6	-6.0	-100%	-3.0 / 3 (-100%)	-3.0 / 3 (-100%)
18th Nov '23	UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig	6	1.0	17%		-1.0 / 1 (-100%)	2.0 / 5 (40%)
11th Nov '23	UFC 295	16	0.6	4%	-2.9 / 11 (-26%)		3.5 / 5 (69%)
4th Nov '23	UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Almeida	8	2.5	31%		7.5 / 3 (248%)	-5.0 / 5 (-100%)
21st Oct '23	UFC 294	8	-3.0	-38%		-3.0 / 8 (-38%)
14th Oct '23	UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Barboza	5	-5.0	-100%	-5.0 / 5 (-100%)
7th Oct '23	UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Green	5	-5.0	-100%			-5.0 / 5 (-100%)
3rd Oct '23	Contender Series 2023: Week 9	3	7.0	235%	7.0 / 3 (235%)
16th Sep '23	UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Shevchenko II	10	4.9	49%			4.9 / 10 (49%)
9th Sep '23	UFC 293	5	2.6	53%		2.6 / 5 (53%)
2nd Sep '23	UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Spivac	3	-3.0	-100%	-3.0 / 3 (-100%)
22nd Aug '23	Contender Series 2023: Week 3	3	1.9	63%	1.9 / 3 (63%)
19th Aug '23	UFC 292	8	8.0	100%	8.0 / 8 (100%)
15th Aug '23	Contender Series 2023: Week 2	5	2.3	46%	2.3 / 5 (46%)
12th Aug '23	UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos Anjos	5	3.3	67%			3.3 / 5 (67%)
5th Aug '23	UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Font	11	-3.5	-32%	-0.5 / 8 (-6%)	-3.0 / 3 (-100%)
4th Aug '23	PFL 7: 2023 Playoffs	6	1.1	19%		-1.0 / 1 (-100%)	2.1 / 5 (43%)
29th Jul '23	UFC 291	11	3.0	27%	-5.0 / 5 (-100%)	8.0 / 6 (133%)
22nd Jul '23	UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura	13	0.6	4%	-2.9 / 8 (-36%)		3.4 / 5 (68%)
15th Jul '23	UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Bueno Silva	5	2.7	54%	2.7 / 5 (54%)
8th Jul '23	UFC 290	10	0.3	3%		5.3 / 5 (105%)	-5.0 / 5 (-100%)
1st Jul '23	UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Magomedov	10	-2.3	-23%			-2.3 / 10 (-23%)
24th Jun '23	UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Topuria	3	4.9	165%	4.9 / 3 (165%)
17th Jun '23	UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Cannonier	5	2.5	49%			2.5 / 5 (49%)
10th Jun '23	UFC 289	5	-5.0	-100%	-5.0 / 5 (-100%)
3rd Jun '23	UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs. Albazi	3	-3.0	-100%		-3.0 / 3 (-100%)
20th May '23	UFC Fight Night: Hill vs. Dern	6	2.6	43%	3.6 / 5 (71%)	-1.0 / 1 (-100%)
13th May '23	UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida	8	3.3	41%	3.3 / 8 (41%)
6th May '23	UFC 288	23	9.5	41%	4.0 / 16 (25%)	3.3 / 3 (110%)	2.2 / 4 (54%)
29th Apr '23	UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Simón	10.25	5.6	54%	3.3 / 4.25 (79%)	2.2 / 6 (37%)

Winning Events: 31 (66%)
Losing Events: 16 (34%)

Average Staked Per Event: 8.52 units
Most Staked On One Event: 23.00 units
Best Event: 9.48 units
Worst Event: -6.00 units
Average Event: 1.20 units

Max Win Streak: Events: 5, Units: 20.87
Max Losing Streak: Events: 4, Units: -13.00

Brett Johnson: Year on Year Profit

Year	Bet	Won	ROI	Straight Won / Bet (ROI%)	Prop Won / Bet (ROI%)	Parlay Won / Bet (ROI%)	Events Won / Lost (%)	Profit Per Event
2024	155	22.3	14%	19.8 / 112 (18%)		2.6 / 5 (52%)	9 / 6 (60%)	1.48
2023	245.25	34.0	14%	11.0 / 123.25 (9%)		9.1 / 74 (12%)	22 / 10 (69%)	1.06

Brett Johnson: Yearly Straight Pick Stats

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Brett Johnson: Profit / Loss by Organization

Organization	Bet	Won	ROI	Straight Picks	Props	Parlays
UFC	373.25	40.6	11%	16.3 / 214.25 (8%)	14.7 / 85 (17%)	9.6 / 74 (13%)
PFL	11	2.4	22%	1.3 / 5 (26%)	-1.0 / 1 (-100%)	2.1 / 5 (43%)
Other	16	13.2	83%	13.2 / 16 (83%)

Brett Johnson: Straight Pick Stats

Big favourite means >65% win chance according to bookies. Big underdog is <35% chance.

	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Units Bet	Units Profit	Profit per Pick	ROI
Big Favorites	14 (25%)	12	86 %	70.00	16.11	1.15	23%
Slight Favorites	17 (31%)	9	53 %	76.25	-11.98	-0.70	-16%
Slight Underdogs	20 (36%)	9	45 %	76.00	13.65	0.68	18%
Big Underdogs	4 (7%)	2	50 %	13.00	13.05	3.26	100%

Betting Stats By Card Position

	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Units Bet	Units Profit	Profit per Pick	ROI
Main Event	7 (13%)	5	71 %	31.00	20.20	2.89	65%
Co-Main Event	5 (9%)	3	60 %	22.00	-2.31	-0.46	-11%
Position 3-5	14 (25%)	6	43 %	60.00	-12.67	-0.90	-21%
6+ (Undercard)	29 (53%)	18	62 %	122.25	25.61	0.88	21%

Brett Johnson: Profit by Weight Class

	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Units Bet	Units Profit	Profit per Pick	ROI
Heavyweight	2 (4%)	1	50 %	10.00	2.20	1.10	22%
Light Heavy	3 (5%)	2	67 %	13.00	4.91	1.64	38%
Middleweight	8 (15%)	4	50 %	29.00	-5.23	-0.65	-18%
Welterweight	5 (9%)	3	60 %	21.00	3.98	0.80	19%
Lightweight	8 (15%)	3	38 %	34.00	-8.86	-1.11	-26%
Featherweight	10 (18%)	5	50 %	42.00	-4.62	-0.46	-11%
Bantamweight	6 (11%)	4	67 %	26.00	10.19	1.70	39%
Flyweight	3 (5%)	2	67 %	13.00	3.24	1.08	25%

Women's Fights	10 (18%)	8	80 %	47.25	25.01	2.50	53%
Bantamweight	3 (5%)	3	100 %	14.25	12.28	4.09	86%
Flyweight	4 (7%)	2	50 %	18.00	1.69	0.42	9%
Strawweight	3 (5%)	3	100 %	15.00	11.04	3.68	74%

Props & Parlay Section Stats (Individual sections of this handicapper's parlays)

Straight picks within parlays

	Picks	Correct	% Correct
Big Favorites	25 (100%)	22	88 %
Slight Favorites	0 (0%)	0	nan %
Slight Underdogs	0 (0%)	0	nan %
Big Underdogs	0 (0%)	0	nan %
	25	22	88 %

Props bets and props within parlays

	Picks	Correct	% Correct
>65% chance	13 (36%)	11	85 %
50-65%	6 (17%)	3	50 %
35-50%	11 (31%)	5	45 %
<35% chance	6 (17%)	2	33 %
	36	21	58 %

Prop Bets and Props within Parlays: Bet Types

Prop Type	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Avg Odds	Longest Odds	Shortest Odds	1U Bet (ROI %)
Under (e.g. 1.5 / 2.5 rnds)	10 (28%)	9	90 %	1.61	2.35	1.22	5.0 (50%)
Does not go to Decision	5 (14%)	3	60 %	1.43	2.00	1.13	0.3 (6%)
X Wins by KO	6 (17%)	1	17 %	2.64	6.25	2.00	0.3 (4%)
X Wins by Sub	3 (8%)	1	33 %	4.26	7.00	2.45	3.5 (117%)
X Wins Inside Distance	6 (17%)	3	50 %	1.59	2.10	1.33	-1.1 (-18%)
X Wins in Round X	1 (3%)	0	0 %	6.50	6.50	6.50	-1.0 (-100%)
Others	5 (14%)	4	80 %	1.63	3.00	1.17	1.0 (19%)
	36	21	58 %	1.83			7.9 (22%)

* 1U Bet (ROI %): Many of the picks will have been part of a parlay, however, as a rough guide to value / profitability, this figure supposes that the handicapper put a 1U bet on each of the picks individually, showing the profit / loss they would have made and the ROI %.

Tail Brett Johnson's bets

If you had tailed this handicapper's bets since they started logging their picks with us, it would have affected your betting bank balance as follows...

This is more accurate than simply X units total profit. Under that more basic system, 1 unit is equal to the same amount of theoretical dollars, whether it was the last event or 10 events ago. However, if a handicapper has 10 events profit in a row, their betting bank balance will be significantly larger for the 10th event and 1 unit will equal a LOT more than it did 10 events ago.

Date	Event	Bet	Won	ROI	Fee	1 unit =	Start	End
29th Apr	UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Simón	10.25	5.6	54%		$10.00	$1,000.00	$1,055.72
6th May	UFC 288	23	9.5	41%		$10.56	$1,055.72	$1,155.79
13th May	UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida	8	3.3	41%		$11.56	$1,155.79	$1,193.35
20th May	UFC Fight Night: Hill vs. Dern	6	2.6	43%		$11.93	$1,193.35	$1,224.04
3rd Jun	UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs. Albazi	3	-3.0	-100%		$12.24	$1,224.04	$1,187.32
10th Jun	UFC 289	5	-5.0	-100%		$11.87	$1,187.32	$1,127.95
17th Jun	UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Cannonier	5	2.5	49%		$11.28	$1,127.95	$1,155.75
24th Jun	UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Topuria	3	4.9	165%		$11.56	$1,155.75	$1,212.96
1st Jul	UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Magomedov	10	-2.3	-23%		$12.13	$1,212.96	$1,184.95
8th Jul	UFC 290	10	0.3	3%		$11.85	$1,184.95	$1,187.91
15th Jul	UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Bueno Silva	5	2.7	54%		$11.88	$1,187.91	$1,219.84
22nd Jul	UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura	13	0.6	4%		$12.20	$1,219.84	$1,226.58
29th Jul	UFC 291	11	3.0	27%		$12.27	$1,226.58	$1,263.37
4th Aug	PFL 7: 2023 Playoffs	6	1.1	19%		$12.63	$1,263.37	$1,277.78
5th Aug	UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Font	11	-3.5	-32%		$12.78	$1,277.78	$1,233.38
12th Aug	UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos Anjos	5	3.3	67%		$12.33	$1,233.38	$1,274.52
15th Aug	Contender Series 2023: Week 2	5	2.3	46%		$12.75	$1,274.52	$1,303.76
19th Aug	UFC 292	8	8.0	100%		$13.04	$1,303.76	$1,408.06
22nd Aug	Contender Series 2023: Week 3	3	1.9	63%		$14.08	$1,408.06	$1,434.46
2nd Sep	UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Spivac	3	-3.0	-100%		$14.34	$1,434.46	$1,391.43
9th Sep	UFC 293	5	2.6	53%		$13.91	$1,391.43	$1,428.04
16th Sep	UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Shevchenko II	10	4.9	49%		$14.28	$1,428.04	$1,497.39
3rd Oct	Contender Series 2023: Week 9	3	7.0	235%		$14.97	$1,497.39	$1,602.96
7th Oct	UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Green	5	-5.0	-100%		$16.03	$1,602.96	$1,522.81
14th Oct	UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Barboza	5	-5.0	-100%		$15.23	$1,522.81	$1,446.67
21st Oct	UFC 294	8	-3.0	-38%		$14.47	$1,446.67	$1,403.27
4th Nov	UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Almeida	8	2.5	31%		$14.03	$1,403.27	$1,437.65
11th Nov	UFC 295	16	0.6	4%		$14.38	$1,437.65	$1,446.36
18th Nov	UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig	6	1.0	17%		$14.46	$1,446.36	$1,461.02
2nd Dec	UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan	6	-6.0	-100%		$14.61	$1,461.02	$1,373.36
9th Dec	UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez	5	-5.0	-100%		$13.73	$1,373.36	$1,304.69
16th Dec	UFC 296	15	4.8	32%		$13.05	$1,304.69	$1,367.00
12th Jan	One Fight Night 18	5	2.0	40%		$13.67	$1,367.00	$1,394.34
13th Jan	UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker	5	2.5	50%		$13.94	$1,394.34	$1,429.20
20th Jan	UFC 297	16	-0.4	-3%		$14.29	$1,429.20	$1,423.49
3rd Feb	UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Imavov	10	-3.1	-31%		$14.23	$1,423.49	$1,379.90
10th Feb	UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer	8	-0.6	-7%		$13.80	$1,379.90	$1,372.16
17th Feb	UFC 298	21	-1.0	-5%		$13.72	$1,372.16	$1,358.06
24th Feb	PFL vs. Bellator: Champs	5	1.3	26%		$13.58	$1,358.06	$1,375.69
24th Feb	UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval	10	9.3	93%		$13.76	$1,375.69	$1,504.29
2nd Mar	UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev	5	-5.0	-100%		$15.04	$1,504.29	$1,429.08
9th Mar	UFC 299	23	7.1	31%		$14.29	$1,429.08	$1,530.34
16th Mar	UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Tybura	3	4.8	160%		$15.30	$1,530.34	$1,603.79
23rd Mar	UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas	3	4.2	140%		$16.04	$1,603.79	$1,671.15
30th Mar	UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot	16	4.4	27%		$16.71	$1,671.15	$1,744.37
6th Apr	UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis II	5	-5.0	-100%		$17.44	$1,744.37	$1,657.15
13th Apr	UFC 300	20	1.7	8%		$16.57	$1,657.15	$1,685.28

ROI % from starting bank balance: 68.53% (including fees)
*Note - we don't store historical fee amounts, so we assume the fees are the same as the handicapper charges now.

Brett Johnson: Last 20 Wins / Losses (Straight Picks)

Last 20 Wins

	Date	Straight Pick	Opponent	Odds	Bet	Result
1.	Apr '24	Arman Tsarukyan	Charles Oliveira	1.44	5	Split Decision (3 rounds)
2.	Mar '24	Manon Fiorot	Erin Blanchfield	2.55	5	U Decision (5 rounds)
3.	Mar '24	Julian Erosa	Ricardo Ramos	2.40	3	Sub, R1 (2:15)
4.	Mar '24	Danny Silva	Joshua Culibao	2.60	3	Split Decision (3 rounds)
5.	Apr '24	Weili Zhang	Yan Xiaonan	1.28	5	U Decision (5 rounds)
6.	Apr '24	Diego Lopes	Sodiq Yusuff	1.62	5	TKO, R1 (1:29)
7.	Feb '24	Johnny Eblen	Impa Kasanganay	1.26	5	Split Decision (3 rounds)
8.	Feb '24	Manuel Torres	Chris Duncan (2)	1.87	5	Sub, R1 (1:46)
9.	Feb '24	Danny Barlow	Josh Quinlan	1.46	5	TKO, R3 (1:18)
10.	Feb '24	Anthony Hernandez	Roman Kopylov	1.55	3	Sub, R2 (3:23)
11.	Mar '24	Jack Della Maddalena	Gilbert Burns	2.05	5	TKO, R3 (3:43)
12.	Feb '24	Molly McCann	Diana Belbita	1.39	5	Sub, R1 (4:59)
13.	Feb '24	Carlos Prates	Trevin Giles	1.49	5	TKO, R2 (4:3)
14.	Jan '24	Jimmy Flick	Malcolm Gordon	2.70	3	Sub, R2 (1:17)
15.	Jan '24	Gillian Robertson	Polyana Viana	1.50	5	TKO, R2 (3:12)
16.	Jan '24	Won Il Kwon	Shinechagtaga Zoltsetseg	1.40	5	TKO, R2 (2:40)
17.	Mar '24	Sean O'Malley	Marlon Vera	1.51	5	U Decision (5 rounds)
18.	Dec '23	Shamil Gaziev	Martin Buday	2.44	5	TKO, R2 (0:56)
19.	Nov '23	Steve Erceg	Alessandro Costa	1.63	5	U Decision (3 rounds)
20.	Oct '23	Rodolfo Bellato	Murtaza Talha Ali	3.35	3	TKO, R2 (4:46)

Last 20 Losses

	Date	Straight Pick	Opponent	Odds	Bet	Result	Hedge?
1.	Apr '24	Jamahal Hill	Alex Pereira	2.15	5	TKO, R1 (3:14)	No
2.	Apr '24	Dylan Budka	César Almeida	2.24	5	TKO, R2 (2:13)	No
3.	Mar '24	Bill Algeo	Kyle Nelson	1.50	5	TKO, R1 (4:0)	No
4.	Mar '24	Jailton Junior	Curtis Blaydes	1.83	5	TKO, R2 (0:36)	No
5.	Feb '24	Paulo Costa	Robert Whittaker	3.00	2	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
6.	Feb '24	Darrius Flowers	Michael Johnson	2.20	3	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
7.	Feb '24	Julija Stoliarenko	Luana Carolina	1.68	5	TKO, R3 (4:52)	No
8.	Jan '24	Charles Jourdain	Sean Woodson	1.57	5	Split Decision (3 rounds)	No
9.	Dec '23	Bryce Mitchell	Josh Emmett	1.49	5	TKO, R1 (1:57)	No
10.	Dec '23	Jun Yong Park	Andre Muniz	1.57	5	Split Decision (3 rounds)	No
11.	Dec '23	Kelvin Gastelum	Sean Brady	2.10	3	Sub, R3 (1:43)	No
12.	Nov '23	Matt Frevola	Benoit Saint-Denis	2.90	3	TKO, R1 (1:31)	No
13.	Nov '23	Mark O. Madsen	Jared Gordon	2.80	3	TKO, R1 (4:42)	No
14.	Oct '23	Adrian Yanez	Jonathan Martinez	1.95	5	TKO, R2 (2:26)	No
15.	Sep '23	Rhys McKee	Ange Loosa	2.46	3	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
16.	Aug '23	Maryna Moroz	Karine Silva	2.26	3	Sub, R1 (4:59)	No
17.	Aug '23	Damon Jackson	Billy Quarantillo	2.50	3	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
18.	Jul '23	Dustin Poirier	Justin Gaethje	1.74	5	TKO, R2 (1:0)	No
19.	Jul '23	Daniel Barez	Jafel Filho	2.10	5	Sub, R1 (3:26)	No
20.	Jun '23	Beneil Dariush	Charles Oliveira	1.67	5	TKO, R1 (4:10)	No

* Hedge indicates that this handicapper also had a WINNING bet on the opponent. For example, they may have bet A to win straight up but with a hedge on the other fighter winning by decision.

Brett Johnson: Progress Chart

Chart

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