MMA Handicapper Directory
Total MMA Handicappers: 6424
Profitable MMA Handicappers: 2371

MMA Handicapper Stats: The Simulation

The Simulation (TheSimulation)

MMA MHandicapper - The Simulation

MMA Betting Stats Summary

Overall Stats		Straight Fight Picks		Props		Parlays
Right	52 (37%)	Right	27 (45%)	Right	25 (31%)	Right	0 (nan%)
Wrong	88 (63%)	Wrong	33 (55%)	Wrong	55 (69%)	Wrong	0 (nan%)
Avg Odds	2.44	Avg Odds	1.83	Avg Odds	3.26	Avg Odds	nan
Units Bet	458.5	Units Bet	259.5	Units Bet	199.0	Units Bet	0.0
Avg Bet	3.28	Avg Bet	4.33	Avg Bet	2.49	Avg Bet	nan
Units Profit	-12.30	Units Profit	-56.90	Units Profit	44.60	Units Profit	0.00
ROI %	-3%	ROI %	-22%	ROI %	22%	ROI %	nan%

The Simulation: Event by Event Predictions

The straight picks, parlays and props sections display Winnings / Bets (ROI%)

Date	Event	Bet	Won	ROI	Straight Picks	Props	Parlays
18th Aug '23	PFL 8: 2023 Playoffs	26	7.8	30%	5.2 / 20 (26%)	2.6 / 6 (44%)
5th Aug '23	UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Font	54	-21.8	-40%	-14.9 / 42 (-35%)	-6.9 / 12 (-58%)
4th Aug '23	PFL 7: 2023 Playoffs	26	-12.3	-47%	-16.0 / 16 (-100%)	3.7 / 10 (37%)
29th Jul '23	UFC 291	48.1	1.8	4%	0.1 / 27.5 (0%)	1.7 / 20.6 (8%)
29th Jul '23	Cage Warriors 158	4	-4.0	-100%	-4.0 / 4 (-100%)
5th Nov '22	UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Lemos	29.5	-5.4	-18%	-8.1 / 15 (-54%)	2.7 / 14.5 (18%)
29th Oct '22	UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Allen	34.7	6.4	18%	1.2 / 17.5 (7%)	5.2 / 17.2 (30%)
29th Oct '22	Bellator 287	18.5	-1.5	-8%	6.4 / 6 (106%)	-7.9 / 12.5 (-63%)
1st Oct '22	UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan	36.5	0.0	0%	6.0 / 30.5 (20%)	-6.0 / 6 (-100%)
17th Sep '22	UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Song	28.5	1.5	5%	1.5 / 13.5 (11%)	-0.0 / 15 (-0%)
10th Sep '22	UFC 279	18.5	-13.7	-74%	-7.2 / 12 (-60%)	-6.5 / 6.5 (-100%)
23rd Aug '22	DWCS 2022: Week 5	7	-7.0	-100%	-7.0 / 7 (-100%)
20th Aug '22	UFC 278	35.2	11.6	33%	1.2 / 12 (10%)	10.3 / 23.2 (45%)
16th Aug '22	DWCS 2022: Week 4	5	-5.0	-100%	-5.0 / 5 (-100%)
13th Aug '22	UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Cruz	32.5	52.0	160%		52.0 / 32.5 (160%)
6th Aug '22	UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Hill	54.5	-22.8	-42%	-16.5 / 31.5 (-52%)	-6.3 / 23 (-27%)

Winning Events: 7 (44%)
Losing Events: 9 (56%)

Average Staked Per Event: 28.66 units
Most Staked On One Event: 54.50 units
Best Event: 52.00 units
Worst Event: -22.80 units
Average Event: -0.77 units

Max Win Streak: Events: 2, Units: 52.00
Max Losing Streak: Events: 2, Units: -34.00

The Simulation: Year on Year Profit

Year	Bet	Won	ROI	Straight Won / Bet (ROI%)	Prop Won / Bet (ROI%)	Parlay Won / Bet (ROI%)	Events Won / Lost (%)	Profit Per Event
2023	158.1	-28.4	-18%	-29.5 / 109.5 (-27%)			2 / 3 (40%)	-5.68
2022	300.4	16.1	5%	-27.4 / 150 (-18%)			5 / 6 (45%)	1.46

The Simulation: Yearly Straight Pick Stats

To view these stats, you need to be a VIP

The Simulation: Profit / Loss by Organization

Organization	Bet	Won	ROI	Straight Picks	Props	Parlays
UFC	372	9.7	3%	-36.5 / 201.5 (-18%)	46.2 / 170.5 (27%)
Bellator	18.5	-1.5	-8%	6.4 / 6 (106%)	-7.9 / 12.5 (-63%)
PFL	52	-4.4	-9%	-10.8 / 36 (-30%)	6.4 / 16 (40%)
Other	16	-16.0	-100%	-16.0 / 16 (-100%)

The Simulation: Straight Pick Stats

Big favourite means >65% win chance according to bookies. Big underdog is <35% chance.

	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Units Bet	Units Profit	Profit per Pick	ROI
Big Favorites	16 (27%)	9	56 %	87.50	-18.10	-1.13	-21%
Slight Favorites	21 (35%)	11	52 %	89.50	-14.62	-0.70	-16%
Slight Underdogs	17 (28%)	6	35 %	63.00	-16.28	-0.96	-26%
Big Underdogs	6 (10%)	1	17 %	19.50	-7.90	-1.32	-41%

Betting Stats By Card Position

	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Units Bet	Units Profit	Profit per Pick	ROI
Main Event	6 (10%)	3	50 %	20.50	-3.30	-0.55	-16%
Co-Main Event	4 (7%)	1	25 %	25.00	-19.00	-4.75	-76%
Position 3-5	17 (28%)	8	47 %	72.50	-16.43	-0.97	-23%
6+ (Undercard)	33 (55%)	15	45 %	141.50	-18.17	-0.55	-13%

The Simulation: Profit by Weight Class

	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Units Bet	Units Profit	Profit per Pick	ROI
Heavyweight	6 (10%)	3	50 %	27.50	-9.38	-1.56	-34%
Light Heavy	4 (7%)		0 %	16.50	-16.50	-4.13	-100%
Middleweight	6 (10%)	3	50 %	17.00	0.68	0.11	4%
Welterweight	9 (15%)	2	22 %	45.00	-32.52	-3.61	-72%
Lightweight	5 (8%)	4	80 %	21.00	12.16	2.43	58%
Featherweight	3 (5%)	3	100 %	15.00	9.55	3.18	64%
Bantamweight	7 (12%)	2	29 %	31.00	-15.61	-2.23	-50%
Flyweight	6 (10%)	2	33 %	25.00	-8.80	-1.47	-35%

Women's Fights	14 (23%)	8	57 %	61.50	3.52	0.25	6%
Featherweight	1 (2%)	1	100 %	5.00	1.10	1.10	22%
Bantamweight	4 (7%)	2	50 %	15.00	-4.77	-1.19	-32%
Flyweight	4 (7%)	2	50 %	18.00	1.90	0.48	11%
Strawweight	5 (8%)	3	60 %	23.50	5.29	1.06	23%

Props & Parlay Section Stats (Individual sections of this handicapper's parlays)

Straight picks within parlays

	Picks	Correct	% Correct
Big Favorites	0 (nan%)	0	nan %
Slight Favorites	0 (nan%)	0	nan %
Slight Underdogs	0 (nan%)	0	nan %
Big Underdogs	0 (nan%)	0	nan %
	0	0	nan %

Props bets and props within parlays

	Picks	Correct	% Correct
>65% chance	3 (4%)	2	67 %
50-65%	11 (14%)	7	64 %
35-50%	22 (28%)	8	36 %
<35% chance	44 (55%)	8	18 %
	80	25	31 %

Prop Bets and Props within Parlays: Bet Types

Prop Type	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Avg Odds	Longest Odds	Shortest Odds	1U Bet (ROI %)
Over (e.g. 1.5 / 2.5 rnds)	7 (9%)	4	57 %	1.88	2.40	1.66	0.3 (5%)
Under (e.g. 1.5 / 2.5 rnds)	1 (1%)	1	100 %	1.67	1.67	1.67	0.7 (67%)
Does not go to Decision	8 (10%)	6	75 %	1.75	2.50	1.44	2.4 (30%)
X Wins by KO	11 (14%)	2	18 %	3.53	9.00	2.20	3.5 (32%)
X Wins by Sub	9 (11%)	3	33 %	4.55	15.00	2.87	3.6 (40%)
X Wins by Decision	14 (18%)	3	21 %	3.42	7.50	1.80	-2.6 (-18%)
X Wins Inside Distance	6 (8%)	2	33 %	2.38	3.40	1.83	-1.5 (-25%)
X Wins in Round X	12 (15%)	1	8 %	17.22	34.00	7.50	5.0 (42%)
Others	12 (15%)	3	25 %	3.70	29.00	2.00	18.3 (153%)
	80	25	31 %	3.26			29.7 (37%)

* 1U Bet (ROI %): Many of the picks will have been part of a parlay, however, as a rough guide to value / profitability, this figure supposes that the handicapper put a 1U bet on each of the picks individually, showing the profit / loss they would have made and the ROI %.

Tail The Simulation's bets

If you had tailed this handicapper's bets since they started logging their picks with us, it would have affected your betting bank balance as follows...

This is more accurate than simply X units total profit. Under that more basic system, 1 unit is equal to the same amount of theoretical dollars, whether it was the last event or 10 events ago. However, if a handicapper has 10 events profit in a row, their betting bank balance will be significantly larger for the 10th event and 1 unit will equal a LOT more than it did 10 events ago.

Date	Event	Bet	Won	ROI	Fee	1 unit =	Start	End
6th Aug	UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Hill	54.5	-22.8	-42%		$10.00	$1,000.00	$772.00
13th Aug	UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Cruz	32.5	52.0	160%		$7.72	$772.00	$1,173.44
16th Aug	DWCS 2022: Week 4	5	-5.0	-100%		$11.73	$1,173.44	$1,114.77
20th Aug	UFC 278	35.2	11.6	33%		$11.15	$1,114.77	$1,244.08
23rd Aug	DWCS 2022: Week 5	7	-7.0	-100%		$12.44	$1,244.08	$1,157.00
10th Sep	UFC 279	18.5	-13.7	-74%		$11.57	$1,157.00	$998.84
17th Sep	UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Song	28.5	1.5	5%		$9.99	$998.84	$1,013.82
1st Oct	UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan	36.5	0.0	0%		$10.14	$1,013.82	$1,014.27
29th Oct	Bellator 287	18.5	-1.5	-8%		$10.14	$1,014.27	$998.55
29th Oct	UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Allen	34.7	6.4	18%		$9.99	$998.55	$1,062.26
5th Nov	UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Lemos	29.5	-5.4	-18%		$10.62	$1,062.26	$1,004.79
29th Jul	Cage Warriors 158	4	-4.0	-100%		$10.05	$1,004.79	$964.60
29th Jul	UFC 291	48.1	1.8	4%		$9.65	$964.60	$981.87
4th Aug	PFL 7: 2023 Playoffs	26	-12.3	-47%		$9.82	$981.87	$861.59
5th Aug	UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Font	54	-21.8	-40%		$8.62	$861.59	$674.19
18th Aug	PFL 8: 2023 Playoffs	26	7.8	30%		$6.74	$674.19	$726.85

ROI % from starting bank balance: -27.32% (including fees)
*Note - we don't store historical fee amounts, so we assume the fees are the same as the handicapper charges now.

The Simulation: Last 20 Wins / Losses (Straight Picks)

Last 20 Wins

	Date	Straight Pick	Opponent	Odds	Bet	Result
1.	Aug '23	Renan Ferreira	Maurice Greene	1.20	5	TKO, R1 (4:46)
2.	Aug '23	Marina Mokhnatkina	Amber Leibrock	1.22	5	Sub, R1 (1:45)
3.	Aug '23	Maira Mazar	Kaytlin Neil	2.62	5	Split Decision (3 rounds)
4.	Aug '23	Ludovit Klein	Ignacio Bahamondes	2.90	4	U Decision (3 rounds)
5.	Aug '23	Billy Quarantillo	Damon Jackson	1.57	5	U Decision (3 rounds)
6.	Aug '23	Sean Woodson	Dennis Buzukja	1.54	5	U Decision (3 rounds)
7.	Jul '23	Kevin Holland	Michael Chiesa	1.73	4	Sub, R1 (2:39)
8.	Jul '23	Jake Matthews	Darrius Flowers	1.39	4	Sub, R2 (2:37)
9.	Jul '23	Carlos Vergara	Vinicius Salvador	1.67	5	U Decision (3 rounds)
10.	Jul '23	Miranda Maverick	Priscila Cachoeira	1.36	5	Sub, R3 (2:11)
11.	Nov '22	Polyana Viana	Jinh Yu Frey	1.73	4	TKO, R1 (0:47)
12.	Oct '22	Mansour Barnaoui	Adam Piccolotti	1.73	2.5	Sub, R2 (2:51)
13.	Oct '22	Alfie Davis	Thibault Gouti	2.30	3.5	U Decision (3 rounds)
14.	Oct '22	Cody Durden	Carlos Mota	2.25	3	U Decision (3 rounds)
15.	Oct '22	Roman Dolidze	Phil Hawes	2.38	2.5	TKO, R1 (4:9)
16.	Oct '22	Waldo Cortes-Acosta	Jared Vanderaa	1.50	4	U Decision (3 rounds)
17.	Oct '22	Yan Xiaonan	Mackenzie Dern	2.75	2.5	Split Decision (5 rounds)
18.	Oct '22	Raoni Barcelos	Trevin Jones	1.44	6	U Decision (3 rounds)
19.	Oct '22	Mike Davis	Viacheslav Borshchev	1.53	6	U Decision (3 rounds)
20.	Oct '22	Ilir Latifi	Aleksei Oleinik	1.53	4	U Decision (3 rounds)

Last 20 Losses

	Date	Straight Pick	Opponent	Odds	Bet	Result	Hedge?
1.	Aug '23	Satoshi Ishii	Danilo Marques	1.72	5	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
2.	Aug '23	Kennedy Nzechukwu	Dustin Jacoby	1.67	4	TKO, R1 (1:22)	No
3.	Aug '23	Aleksa Camur	Tanner Boser	2.30	5	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
4.	Aug '23	Raoni Barcelos	Kyler Phillips	2.70	5	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
5.	Aug '23	Jeremiah Wells	Carlston Harris	1.87	5	Sub, R3 (1:50)	No
6.	Aug '23	Jake Hadley	Cody Durden	1.54	5	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
7.	Aug '23	Ode Osbourne	Assu Almabaev	2.63	4	Sub, R2 (3:11)	No
8.	Aug '23	Keoni Diggs	Elvin Espinoza	2.25	5	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
9.	Aug '23	Desiree Yanez	Lisa Mauldin	1.57	5	Sub, R1 (3:8)	No
10.	Aug '23	Carson Hardman	Anthony Ivy	3.10	3	Sub, R1 (2:34)	No
11.	Aug '23	Ky Bennett	Chelsea Hackett	2.48	3	Sub, R2 (4:42)	No
12.	Jul '23	Michele Martignoni	Shaj Haque	1.76	4	U Decision (5 rounds)	No
13.	Jul '23	Trevin Giles	Gabriel Bonfim	3.80	3	Sub, R1 (1:13)	No
14.	Jul '23	Marcos Rogerio de Lima	Derrick Lewis	1.50	3.5	TKO, R1 (0:33)	No
15.	Jul '23	Claudio Ribeiro	Roman Kopylov	2.87	3	TKO, R2 (0:33)	No
16.	Nov '22	Marina Alcalde Rodriguez	Amanda Lemos	1.44	4	TKO, R3 (0:54)	No
17.	Nov '22	Daniel Rodriguez	Neil Magny	2.10	5	Sub, R3 (3:33)	No
18.	Nov '22	Nathan Maness	Tagir Ulanbekov	2.75	2	Sub, R1 (2:11)	No
19.	Oct '22	Dustin Jacoby	Khalil Rountree	1.57	5	Split Decision (3 rounds)	No
20.	Oct '22	Josh Fremd	Tresean Gore	1.53	3	Sub, R2 (0:49)	No

* Hedge indicates that this handicapper also had a WINNING bet on the opponent. For example, they may have bet A to win straight up but with a hedge on the other fighter winning by decision.

The Simulation: Progress Chart

Chart

Betting Favorites vs Underdogs
In Depth UFC Fight Stats
List of MMA Bookmakers
Best MMA Tipsters
Next UFC Event