MMA Handicapper Directory
Total MMA Handicappers: 6424
Profitable MMA Handicappers: 2371

MMA Handicapper Stats: Fat Pig

Fat Pig (fatpig)

MMA MHandicapper - Fat Pig

MMA Betting Stats Summary

Overall Stats		Straight Fight Picks		Props		Parlays
Right	120 (52%)	Right	88 (64%)	Right	8 (36%)	Right	24 (33%)
Wrong	112 (48%)	Wrong	50 (36%)	Wrong	14 (64%)	Wrong	48 (67%)
Avg Odds	1.93	Avg Odds	1.52	Avg Odds	1.93	Avg Odds	3.99
Units Bet	1,535.5	Units Bet	1,134.8	Units Bet	116.5	Units Bet	284.3
Avg Bet	6.62	Avg Bet	8.22	Avg Bet	5.30	Avg Bet	3.95
Units Profit	37.88	Units Profit	14.48	Units Profit	-41.10	Units Profit	64.50
ROI %	2%	ROI %	1%	ROI %	-35%	ROI %	23%

Fat Pig: Event by Event Predictions

The straight picks, parlays and props sections display Winnings / Bets (ROI%)

Date	Event	Bet	Won	ROI	Straight Picks	Props	Parlays
25th Mar '23	UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Sandhagen	5	20.5	409%			20.5 / 5 (409%)
4th Mar '23	UFC 285	13	-13.0	-100%		-5.0 / 5 (-100%)	-8.0 / 8 (-100%)
18th Feb '23	UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Blanchfield	5	6.4	127%			6.4 / 5 (127%)
4th Feb '23	UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spivak	5	16.4	328%	-2.0 / 2 (-100%)		18.4 / 3 (613%)
4th Feb '23	Bellator 290	10	3.4	34%	3.4 / 10 (34%)
25th Jun '22	UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot	8	26.9	336%			26.9 / 8 (336%)
24th Jun '22	Bellator 282	10	-10.0	-100%			-10.0 / 10 (-100%)
16th Apr '22	UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Muhammad II	5	3.4	69%			3.4 / 5 (69%)
4th Dec '21	UFC FN	10	-10.0	-100%			-10.0 / 10 (-100%)
6th Nov '21	UFC 268	100	0.2	0%	10.2 / 90 (11%)		-10.0 / 10 (-100%)
4th Sep '21	UFC FN	16	17.5	109%			17.5 / 16 (109%)
31st Jul '21	UFC FN	27.5	-27.5	-100%	-10.0 / 10 (-100%)	-10.0 / 10 (-100%)	-7.5 / 7.5 (-100%)
17th Jul '21	UFC FN	34	10.6	31%	19.0 / 16 (119%)	-3.5 / 13 (-27%)	-5.0 / 5 (-100%)
26th Jun '21	UFC FN	45	-0.1	-0%	2.4 / 30 (8%)	-2.5 / 15 (-17%)
17th Jun '21	PFL 2021: Week 5	20	3.0	15%	13.0 / 10 (130%)	-5.0 / 5 (-100%)	-5.0 / 5 (-100%)
12th Jun '21	UFC 263	60	22.7	38%	22.9 / 55 (42%)	1.8 / 3 (61%)	-2.0 / 2 (-100%)
11th Jun '21	Bellator 260	65	-2.6	-4%	0.6 / 55 (1%)	1.8 / 5 (36%)	-5.0 / 5 (-100%)
10th Jun '21	PFL 2021: Week 4	67.5	-4.0	-6%	-0.1 / 55 (-0%)	3.6 / 5 (71%)	-7.5 / 7.5 (-100%)
5th Jun '21	UFC FN	46	-9.5	-21%	-7.5 / 44 (-17%)		-2.0 / 2 (-100%)
22nd May '21	UFC FN	88	-24.2	-28%	-21.9 / 77 (-28%)	3.7 / 5 (74%)	-6.0 / 6 (-100%)
22nd May '21	LFA 108	10	7.8	78%			7.8 / 10 (78%)
21st May '21	Bellator 259	5	-5.0	-100%		-5.0 / 5 (-100%)
8th May '21	UFC FN	99	-31.9	-32%	-26.4 / 77 (-34%)	1.5 / 15 (10%)	-7.0 / 7 (-100%)
7th May '21	Bellator 258	66	-26.5	-40%	-26.5 / 66 (-40%)
24th Apr '21	UFC 261	100	-35.6	-36%	-12.6 / 77 (-16%)	-11.0 / 11 (-100%)	-12.0 / 12 (-100%)
17th Apr '21	UFC FN	81	-3.7	-5%	-2.6 / 44 (-6%)	-11.0 / 11 (-100%)	9.9 / 26 (38%)
16th Apr '21	Bellator 257	60	3.5	6%	-0.7 / 54 (-1%)		4.2 / 6 (70%)
10th Apr '21	UFC FN	36	18.8	52%	13.4 / 30 (45%)		5.4 / 6 (90%)
2nd Apr '21	Bellator 255	73.5	46.4	63%	18.8 / 60 (31%)		27.6 / 13.5 (204%)
28th Mar '21	UFC 260	86.5	54.9	64%	25.8 / 62 (42%)		29.1 / 24.5 (119%)
27th Mar '21	LFA 103	15	10.8	72%	3.6 / 10 (36%)		7.2 / 5 (144%)
26th Mar '21	ACA 120	5	5.4	107%			5.4 / 5 (107%)
20th Mar '21	UFC Fight Night 188	61	4.8	8%	0.3 / 48 (1%)	-0.6 / 8.5 (-7%)	5.1 / 4.5 (112%)
20th Mar '21	Cage Warriors 122	31	-9.5	-31%	-4.5 / 26 (-17%)		-5.0 / 5 (-100%)
20th Mar '21	LFA 102	5	-5.0	-100%			-5.0 / 5 (-100%)
13th Mar '21	UFC Fight Night 187	34.5	-3.6	-11%	5.9 / 25 (23%)		-9.5 / 9.5 (-100%)
6th Mar '21	UFC 259	76	10.8	14%	9.3 / 67.5 (14%)		1.4 / 8.5 (17%)
28th Feb '21	UFC Fight Night 186	15	-15.0	-100%	-10.0 / 10 (-100%)		-5.0 / 5 (-100%)
20th Feb '21	UFC Fight Night 185	23.5	-17.4	-74%	-7.4 / 13.5 (-55%)		-10.0 / 10 (-100%)
13th Feb '21	UFC 258	9.75	-1.9	-20%	-1.4 / 8.75 (-16%)		-0.5 / 1 (-52%)
6th Feb '21	UFC FN	2.75	-0.1	-3%	-0.5 / 2 (-26%)		0.4 / 0.75 (56%)

Winning Events: 20 (49%)
Losing Events: 21 (51%)

Average Staked Per Event: 37.45 units
Most Staked On One Event: 100.00 units
Best Event: 54.94 units
Worst Event: -35.59 units
Average Event: 0.92 units

Max Win Streak: Events: 7, Units: 144.70
Max Losing Streak: Events: 5, Units: -102.74

Fat Pig: Year on Year Profit

Year	Bet	Won	ROI	Straight Won / Bet (ROI%)	Prop Won / Bet (ROI%)	Parlay Won / Bet (ROI%)	Events Won / Lost (%)	Profit Per Event
2023	38	33.6	88%	1.4 / 12 (11%)		37.2 / 21 (177%)	4 / 1 (80%)	6.71
2022	23	20.3	88%			20.3 / 23 (88%)	2 / 1 (67%)	6.76
2021	1474.5	-16.0	-1%	13.1 / 1122.75 (1%)		7.0 / 240.25 (3%)	14 / 19 (42%)	-0.48

Fat Pig: Yearly Straight Pick Stats

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Fat Pig: Profit / Loss by Organization

Organization	Bet	Won	ROI	Straight Picks	Props	Parlays
UFC	1092.5	20.3	2%	7.0 / 788.75 (1%)	-36.5 / 96.5 (-38%)	49.8 / 207.25 (24%)
Bellator	289.5	9.1	3%	-4.5 / 245 (-2%)	-3.2 / 10 (-32%)	16.8 / 34.5 (49%)
PFL	87.5	-1.0	-1%	12.9 / 65 (20%)	-1.4 / 10 (-14%)	-12.5 / 12.5 (-100%)
Other	66	9.5	14%	-0.9 / 36 (-2%)		10.4 / 30 (35%)

Fat Pig: Straight Pick Stats

Big favourite means >65% win chance according to bookies. Big underdog is <35% chance.

	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Units Bet	Units Profit	Profit per Pick	ROI
Big Favorites	80 (57%)	58	73 %	705.25	-15.14	-0.19	-2%
Slight Favorites	43 (30%)	23	53 %	368.00	-15.96	-0.37	-4%
Slight Underdogs	11 (8%)	5	45 %	53.00	32.00	2.91	60%
Big Underdogs	7 (5%)	4	57 %	8.50	13.59	1.94	160%

Betting Stats By Card Position

	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Units Bet	Units Profit	Profit per Pick	ROI
Main Event	13 (9%)	8	62 %	105.25	1.83	0.14	2%
Co-Main Event	17 (12%)	9	53 %	132.00	-17.29	-1.02	-13%
Position 3-5	34 (24%)	24	71 %	289.00	20.39	0.60	7%
6+ (Undercard)	77 (55%)	49	64 %	608.50	9.56	0.12	2%

Fat Pig: Profit by Weight Class

	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Units Bet	Units Profit	Profit per Pick	ROI
Heavyweight	11 (8%)	8	73 %	88.75	12.37	1.12	14%
Light Heavy	12 (9%)	6	50 %	87.25	-11.62	-0.97	-13%
Middleweight	13 (9%)	8	62 %	113.00	6.70	0.52	6%
Welterweight	18 (13%)	14	78 %	155.25	15.78	0.88	10%
Lightweight	23 (16%)	16	70 %	230.25	-1.89	-0.08	-1%
Featherweight	17 (12%)	11	65 %	111.00	18.61	1.09	17%
Bantamweight	18 (13%)	12	67 %	133.50	-14.23	-0.79	-11%
Flyweight	6 (4%)	5	83 %	37.00	28.04	4.67	76%

Women's Fights	23 (16%)	10	43 %	178.75	-39.29	-1.71	-22%
Featherweight	3 (2%)	2	67 %	32.00	-8.52	-2.84	-27%
Bantamweight	4 (3%)	2	50 %	23.25	9.50	2.37	41%
Flyweight	6 (4%)	4	67 %	36.00	13.45	2.24	37%
Strawweight	10 (7%)	2	20 %	87.50	-53.72	-5.37	-61%

Props & Parlay Section Stats (Individual sections of this handicapper's parlays)

Straight picks within parlays

	Picks	Correct	% Correct
Big Favorites	132 (61%)	102	77 %
Slight Favorites	67 (31%)	38	57 %
Slight Underdogs	15 (7%)	4	27 %
Big Underdogs	3 (1%)	1	33 %
	217	145	67 %

Props bets and props within parlays

	Picks	Correct	% Correct
>65% chance	24 (29%)	14	58 %
50-65%	37 (44%)	25	68 %
35-50%	13 (15%)	2	15 %
<35% chance	10 (12%)	3	30 %
	84	44	52 %

Prop Bets and Props within Parlays: Bet Types

Prop Type	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Avg Odds	Longest Odds	Shortest Odds	1U Bet (ROI %)
Over (e.g. 1.5 / 2.5 rnds)	11 (13%)	5	45 %	1.50	1.63	1.39	-3.4 (-31%)
Under (e.g. 1.5 / 2.5 rnds)	2 (2%)	0	0 %	1.74	1.74	1.74	-2.0 (-100%)
Goes to Decision	2 (2%)	2	100 %	1.27	1.28	1.26	0.5 (27%)
Does not go to Decision	3 (4%)	1	33 %	1.49	1.56	1.44	-1.4 (-48%)
Fight Starts Round X	5 (6%)	5	100 %	1.57	1.63	1.41	2.9 (57%)
X Wins by KO	2 (2%)	2	100 %	1.83	1.87	1.80	1.7 (83%)
X Wins by Sub	5 (6%)	5	100 %	1.92	1.95	1.91	4.6 (92%)
X Wins by Decision	15 (18%)	4	27 %	2.43	6.75	1.83	-2.9 (-20%)
X Wins Inside Distance	34 (40%)	18	53 %	1.82	4.55	1.25	-2.1 (-6%)
Others	5 (6%)	2	40 %	1.62	2.85	1.35	-2.1 (-43%)
	84	44	52 %	1.79			-4.4 (-5%)

* 1U Bet (ROI %): Many of the picks will have been part of a parlay, however, as a rough guide to value / profitability, this figure supposes that the handicapper put a 1U bet on each of the picks individually, showing the profit / loss they would have made and the ROI %.

Tail Fat Pig's bets

If you had tailed this handicapper's bets since they started logging their picks with us, it would have affected your betting bank balance as follows...

This is more accurate than simply X units total profit. Under that more basic system, 1 unit is equal to the same amount of theoretical dollars, whether it was the last event or 10 events ago. However, if a handicapper has 10 events profit in a row, their betting bank balance will be significantly larger for the 10th event and 1 unit will equal a LOT more than it did 10 events ago.

Date	Event	Bet	Won	ROI	Fee	1 unit =	Start	End
6th Feb	UFC FN	2.75	-0.1	-3%		$10.00	$1,000.00	$999.11
13th Feb	UFC 258	9.75	-1.9	-20%		$9.99	$999.11	$980.09
20th Feb	UFC Fight Night 185	23.5	-17.4	-74%		$9.80	$980.09	$809.11
28th Feb	UFC Fight Night 186	15	-15.0	-100%		$8.09	$809.11	$687.74
6th Mar	UFC 259	76	10.8	14%		$6.88	$687.74	$761.77
13th Mar	UFC Fight Night 187	34.5	-3.6	-11%		$7.62	$761.77	$734.13
20th Mar	LFA 102	5	-5.0	-100%		$7.34	$734.13	$697.42
20th Mar	Cage Warriors 122	31	-9.5	-31%		$6.97	$697.42	$631.40
20th Mar	UFC Fight Night 188	61	4.8	8%		$6.31	$631.40	$661.91
26th Mar	ACA 120	5	5.4	107%		$6.62	$661.91	$697.40
27th Mar	LFA 103	15	10.8	72%		$6.97	$697.40	$772.62
28th Mar	UFC 260	86.5	54.9	64%		$7.73	$772.62	$1,197.13
2nd Apr	Bellator 255	73.5	46.4	63%		$11.97	$1,197.13	$1,752.80
10th Apr	UFC FN	36	18.8	52%		$17.53	$1,752.80	$2,082.76
16th Apr	Bellator 257	60	3.5	6%		$20.83	$2,082.76	$2,156.27
17th Apr	UFC FN	81	-3.7	-5%		$21.56	$2,156.27	$2,076.14
24th Apr	UFC 261	100	-35.6	-36%		$20.76	$2,076.14	$1,337.32
7th May	Bellator 258	66	-26.5	-40%		$13.37	$1,337.32	$982.30
8th May	UFC FN	99	-31.9	-32%		$9.82	$982.30	$669.08
21st May	Bellator 259	5	-5.0	-100%		$6.69	$669.08	$635.62
22nd May	LFA 108	10	7.8	78%		$6.36	$635.62	$685.45
22nd May	UFC FN	88	-24.2	-28%		$6.85	$685.45	$519.45
5th Jun	UFC FN	46	-9.5	-21%		$5.19	$519.45	$470.22
10th Jun	PFL 2021: Week 4	67.5	-4.0	-6%		$4.70	$470.22	$451.20
11th Jun	Bellator 260	65	-2.6	-4%		$4.51	$451.20	$439.33
12th Jun	UFC 263	60	22.7	38%		$4.39	$439.33	$539.04
17th Jun	PFL 2021: Week 5	20	3.0	15%		$5.39	$539.04	$555.21
26th Jun	UFC FN	45	-0.1	-0%		$5.55	$555.21	$554.55
17th Jul	UFC FN	34	10.6	31%		$5.55	$554.55	$613.29
31st Jul	UFC FN	27.5	-27.5	-100%		$6.13	$613.29	$444.63
4th Sep	UFC FN	16	17.5	109%		$4.45	$444.63	$522.36
6th Nov	UFC 268	100	0.2	0%		$5.22	$522.36	$523.54
4th Dec	UFC FN	10	-10.0	-100%		$5.24	$523.54	$471.19
16th Apr	UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Muhammad II	5	3.4	69%		$4.71	$471.19	$487.38
24th Jun	Bellator 282	10	-10.0	-100%		$4.87	$487.38	$438.64
25th Jun	UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot	8	26.9	336%		$4.39	$438.64	$556.45
4th Feb	Bellator 290	10	3.4	34%		$5.56	$556.45	$575.10
4th Feb	UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spivak	5	16.4	328%		$5.75	$575.10	$669.27
18th Feb	UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Blanchfield	5	6.4	127%		$6.69	$669.27	$711.86
4th Mar	UFC 285	13	-13.0	-100%		$7.12	$711.86	$619.32
25th Mar	UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Sandhagen	5	20.5	409%		$6.19	$619.32	$746.04

ROI % from starting bank balance: -25.40% (including fees)
*Note - we don't store historical fee amounts, so we assume the fees are the same as the handicapper charges now.

Fat Pig: Last 20 Wins / Losses (Straight Picks)

Last 20 Wins

	Date	Straight Pick	Opponent	Odds	Bet	Result
1.	Feb '23	Johnny Eblen	Anatoly Tokov	1.38	5	U Decision (5 rounds)
2.	Feb '23	Ryan Bader	Fedor Emelianenko	1.29	5	TKO, R1 (2:30)
3.	Nov '21	Melsik Bagdasaryan	Bruno Souza	1.30	10	U Decision (3 rounds)
4.	Nov '21	Ode Osbourne	Carlos Vergara	1.53	10	U Decision (3 rounds)
5.	Nov '21	Alex Pereira	Andreas Michailidis	1.41	10	TKO, R2 (0:18)
6.	Nov '21	Justin Gaethje	Michael Chandler	1.48	10	U Decision (3 rounds)
7.	Nov '21	Shane Burgos	Billy Quarantillo	1.50	10	U Decision (3 rounds)
8.	Nov '21	Marlon Vera	Frankie Edgar	1.70	10	TKO, R3 (3:50)
9.	Nov '21	Kamaru Usman	Colby Covington	1.10	10	U Decision (5 rounds)
10.	Jul '21	Malcolm Gordon	Francisco Figueiredo	3.39	5	U Decision (3 rounds)
11.	Jul '21	Miesha Tate	Marion Reneau	1.65	11	TKO, R3 (1:53)
12.	Jun '21	Charles Rosa	Justin Jaynes	1.57	10	Split Decision (3 rounds)
13.	Jun '21	Damir Hadzovic	Yancy Medeiros	1.67	10	U Decision (3 rounds)
14.	Jun '21	Sadibou Sy	Alexey Kunchenko	2.30	10	U Decision (3 rounds)
15.	Jun '21	Carlos Felipe	Jake Collier	1.63	11	Split Decision (3 rounds)
16.	Jun '21	Movsar Evloev	Hakeem Dawodu	1.43	11	U Decision (3 rounds)
17.	Jun '21	Brad Riddell	Drew Dober	2.35	11	U Decision (3 rounds)
18.	Jun '21	Eryk Anders	Darren Stewart	1.68	11	U Decision (3 rounds)
19.	Jun '21	Mark Lemminger	Demarques Jackson	1.80	11	TKO, R2 (3:30)
20.	Jun '21	Justin Gonzales	Tywan Claxton	1.83	11	Split Decision (3 rounds)

Last 20 Losses

	Date	Straight Pick	Opponent	Odds	Bet	Result	Hedge?
1.	Feb '23	Da Un Jung	Devin Clark	1.42	2	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
2.	Nov '21	Phil Hawes	Chris Curtis	1.33	10	TKO, R1 (4:27)	No
3.	Nov '21	Weili Zhang	Rose Namajunas	1.80	10	Split Decision (5 rounds)	No
4.	Jul '21	Ashley Yoder	Jinh Yu Frey	1.67	10	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
5.	Jun '21	Warlley Alves	Jeremiah Wells	1.31	10	TKO, R2 (0:30)	No
6.	Jun '21	Matt Frevola	Terrance McKinney	1.49	11	TKO, R1 (0:7)	No
7.	Jun '21	Levan Chokheli	Kyle Crutchmer	2.00	11	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
8.	Jun '21	Nick Newell	Bobby King	1.80	11	Split Decision (3 rounds)	No
9.	Jun '21	Marcin Held	Olivier Aubin-Mercier	1.71	11	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
10.	Jun '21	Akhmed Aliev	Loik Radzhabov	1.53	11	TKO, R1 (0:27)	No
11.	Jun '21	Jordan Leavitt	Claudio Puelles	1.50	11	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
12.	Jun '21	Miguel Baeza	Santiago Ponzinibbio	1.80	11	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
13.	May '21	Felicia Spencer	Norma Dumont	1.63	11	Split Decision (3 rounds)	No
14.	May '21	Justin Tafa	Jared Vanderaa	1.53	11	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
15.	May '21	Yan Xiaonan	Carla Esparza	1.67	11	TKO, R2 (2:58)	No
16.	May '21	Donald Cerrone	Alex Morono	1.63	11	TKO, R1 (4:40)	No
17.	May '21	Tafon Nchukwi	Jun Yong Park	1.70	11	Split Decision (3 rounds)	No
18.	May '21	Henry Corrales	Johnny Campbell	1.19	11	Sub, R2 (4:12)	No
19.	May '21	Weber Almeida	Johnny Soto	1.20	11	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
20.	May '21	Juan Archulata	Sergio Pettis	1.53	11	U Decision (5 rounds)	No

* Hedge indicates that this handicapper also had a WINNING bet on the opponent. For example, they may have bet A to win straight up but with a hedge on the other fighter winning by decision.

Fat Pig: Progress Chart

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