MMA Handicapper Directory
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MMA Handicapper Stats: Mir Theory

Mir Theory (MirTheory)

MMA Betting Stats Summary

Overall Stats		Straight Fight Picks		Props		Parlays
Right	58 (49%)	Right	42 (49%)	Right	1 (33%)	Right	15 (50%)
Wrong	61 (51%)	Wrong	44 (51%)	Wrong	2 (67%)	Wrong	15 (50%)
Avg Odds	1.95	Avg Odds	1.95	Avg Odds	4.47	Avg Odds	1.86
Units Bet	523.0	Units Bet	380.5	Units Bet	7.0	Units Bet	135.5
Avg Bet	4.39	Avg Bet	4.42	Avg Bet	2.33	Avg Bet	4.52
Units Profit	-48.63	Units Profit	-25.43	Units Profit	2.37	Units Profit	-25.58
ROI %	-9%	ROI %	-7%	ROI %	34%	ROI %	-19%

Mir Theory: Event by Event Predictions

The straight picks, parlays and props sections display Winnings / Bets (ROI%)

Date	Event	Bet	Won	ROI	Straight Picks	Props	Parlays
22nd Feb '20	UFC Fight Night 168	45	-22.7	-50%	-12.7 / 35 (-36%)		-10.0 / 10 (-100%)
9th Feb '20	UFC 247	32	-14.1	-44%	-10.0 / 10 (-100%)		-4.1 / 22 (-19%)
18th Jan '20	UFC 246	44	11.5	26%	22.5 / 33 (68%)		-11.0 / 11 (-100%)
14th Sep '19	UFC Fight Night 158	41	-21.0	-51%	-21.0 / 41 (-51%)
8th Sep '19	Bellator 226	2.5	-2.5	-100%	-2.5 / 2.5 (-100%)
7th Sep '19	UFC 242	17.5	-10.8	-62%	0.7 / 6 (11%)	-3.0 / 3 (-100%)	-8.5 / 8.5 (-100%)
17th Aug '19	UFC 241	14	-14.0	-100%	-10.5 / 10.5 (-100%)		-3.5 / 3.5 (-100%)
10th Aug '19	UFC Fight Night 156	23.5	12.6	54%	-3.2 / 10.5 (-30%)	6.9 / 2.5 (275%)	8.9 / 10.5 (85%)
3rd Aug '19	UFC on ESPN 5	9	7.4	82%	3.2 / 4 (80%)		4.2 / 5 (84%)
27th Jul '19	UFC 240	14.5	7.1	49%	6.0 / 8 (75%)	-1.5 / 1.5 (-100%)	2.7 / 5 (53%)
20th Jul '19	UFC on ESPN 4	25	-12.2	-49%	-12.2 / 25 (-49%)
29th Jun '19	UFC on ESPN 3	7	-7.0	-100%	-3.0 / 3 (-100%)		-4.0 / 4 (-100%)
22nd Jun '19	UFC Fight Night 154	10.5	1.5	14%	1.5 / 10.5 (14%)
22nd Jun '19	Bellator London	2.5	-2.5	-100%	-2.5 / 2.5 (-100%)
14th Jun '19	Bellator 222	5.5	0.6	10%	0.6 / 5.5 (10%)
1st Jun '19	UFC Fight Night 153	7.5	-1.8	-24%	2.2 / 3.5 (63%)		-4.0 / 4 (-100%)
18th May '19	UFC Fight Night 152	12	-6.4	-53%	-2.5 / 2.5 (-100%)		-3.9 / 9.5 (-41%)
11th May '19	UFC 237	7	0.5	7%	0.5 / 7 (7%)
4th May '19	UFC Fight Night 150	8.5	8.9	105%	8.9 / 8.5 (105%)
27th Apr '19	Bellator 220	3	1.2	41%			1.2 / 3 (41%)
27th Apr '19	UFC on ESPN 3	15	-4.1	-27%	-6.2 / 13 (-47%)		2.1 / 2 (104%)
20th Apr '19	UFC Fight Night 149	5.5	5.8	106%	5.8 / 5.5 (106%)
13th Apr '19	UFC 236	24.5	-9.9	-41%	-7.4 / 22 (-34%)		-2.5 / 2.5 (-100%)
30th Mar '19	UFC on ESPN 2	17.5	4.2	24%	1.1 / 14.5 (8%)		3.1 / 3 (103%)
23rd Mar '19	UFC Fight Night 148	12	3.1	26%	4.7 / 3.5 (135%)		-1.6 / 8.5 (-19%)
16th Mar '19	UFC Fight Night 147	17	-3.0	-17%	1.0 / 13 (8%)		-4.0 / 4 (-100%)
9th Mar '19	UFC Fight Night 146	13.5	-7.4	-55%	-3.9 / 10 (-39%)		-3.5 / 3.5 (-100%)
2nd Mar '19	UFC 235	7	0.9	13%	-3.0 / 3 (-100%)		3.9 / 4 (97%)
23rd Feb '19	UFC Fight Night 145	6.5	6.1	94%	6.1 / 6.5 (94%)
17th Feb '19	UFC on ESPN 1	28	0.6	2%	-5.3 / 21 (-25%)		5.9 / 7 (85%)
9th Feb '19	UFC 234	8	0.1	1%	-3.0 / 3 (-100%)		3.1 / 5 (61%)
2nd Feb '19	UFC Fight Night 144	17	13.8	81%	13.8 / 17 (81%)
19th Jan '19	UFC on ESPN+ 1	20	4.7	24%	4.7 / 20 (24%)

Winning Events: 18 (55%)
Losing Events: 15 (45%)

Average Staked Per Event: 15.85 units
Most Staked On One Event: 45.00 units
Best Event: 13.81 units
Worst Event: -22.70 units
Average Event: -1.47 units

Max Win Streak: Events: 6, Units: 27.12
Max Losing Streak: Events: 4, Units: -48.32

Mir Theory: Year on Year Profit

Year	Bet	Won	ROI	Straight Won / Bet (ROI%)	Prop Won / Bet (ROI%)	Parlay Won / Bet (ROI%)	Events Won / Lost (%)	Profit Per Event
2020	121	-25.3	-21%	-0.2 / 78 (-0%)		-25.1 / 43 (-58%)	1 / 2 (33%)	-8.43
2019	402	-23.4	-6%	-25.3 / 302.5 (-8%)	2.4 / 7 (34%)	-0.5 / 92.5 (-0%)	17 / 13 (57%)	-0.78

Mir Theory: Yearly Straight Pick Stats

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Mir Theory: Profit / Loss by Organization

Organization	Bet	Won	ROI	Straight Picks	Props	Parlays
UFC	509.5	-45.4	-9%	-21.0 / 370 (-6%)	2.4 / 7 (34%)	-26.8 / 132.5 (-20%)
Bellator	13.5	-3.2	-24%	-4.4 / 10.5 (-42%)		1.2 / 3 (41%)

Mir Theory: Straight Pick Stats

Big favourite means >65% win chance according to bookies. Big underdog is <35% chance.

	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Units Bet	Units Profit	Profit per Pick	ROI
Big Favorites	11 (13%)	7	64 %	63.00	-8.25	-0.75	-13%
Slight Favorites	38 (44%)	23	61 %	167.00	20.67	0.54	12%
Slight Underdogs	30 (35%)	11	37 %	128.50	-21.47	-0.72	-17%
Big Underdogs	7 (8%)	1	14 %	22.00	-16.38	-2.34	-74%

Betting Stats By Card Position

	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Units Bet	Units Profit	Profit per Pick	ROI
Main Event	13 (15%)	6	46 %	53.50	-10.27	-0.79	-19%
Co-Main Event	10 (12%)	6	60 %	42.50	12.46	1.25	29%
Position 3-5	27 (31%)	14	52 %	120.00	-1.79	-0.07	-1%
6+ (Undercard)	36 (42%)	16	44 %	164.50	-25.83	-0.72	-16%

Mir Theory: Profit by Weight Class

	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Units Bet	Units Profit	Profit per Pick	ROI
Heavyweight	8 (9%)	3	38 %	36.00	-19.32	-2.42	-54%
Light Heavy	12 (14%)	7	58 %	45.00	16.35	1.36	36%
Middleweight	7 (8%)	5	71 %	27.50	6.39	0.91	23%
Welterweight	11 (13%)	4	36 %	49.00	-19.54	-1.78	-40%
Lightweight	13 (15%)	8	62 %	63.00	16.91	1.30	27%
Featherweight	9 (10%)	3	33 %	29.00	-6.48	-0.72	-22%
Bantamweight	10 (12%)	4	40 %	54.50	-25.98	-2.60	-48%
Flyweight	6 (7%)	3	50 %	30.00	4.87	0.81	16%

Women's Fights	10 (12%)	5	50 %	46.50	1.35	0.14	3%
Bantamweight	3 (3%)	1	33 %	18.00	1.91	0.64	11%
Flyweight	4 (5%)	3	75 %	12.00	8.46	2.12	71%
Strawweight	3 (3%)	1	33 %	16.50	-9.02	-3.01	-55%

Props & Parlay Section Stats (Individual sections of this handicapper's parlays)

Straight picks within parlays

	Picks	Correct	% Correct
Big Favorites	46 (81%)	35	76 %
Slight Favorites	10 (18%)	4	40 %
Slight Underdogs	1 (2%)	1	100 %
Big Underdogs	0 (0%)	0	nan %
	57	40	70 %

Props bets and props within parlays

	Picks	Correct	% Correct
>65% chance	3 (50%)	3	100 %
50-65%	0 (0%)	0	nan %
35-50%	0 (0%)	0	nan %
<35% chance	3 (50%)	1	33 %
	6	4	67 %

Prop Bets and Props within Parlays: Bet Types

Prop Type	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Avg Odds	Longest Odds	Shortest Odds	1U Bet (ROI %)
Over (e.g. 1.5 / 2.5 rnds)	1 (17%)	1	100 %	1.25	1.25	1.25	0.3 (25%)
Goes to Decision	1 (17%)	1	100 %	1.30	1.30	1.30	0.3 (30%)
X Wins by Decision	3 (50%)	1	33 %	4.47	6.50	3.75	0.7 (25%)
X Wins Inside Distance	1 (17%)	1	100 %	1.28	1.28	1.28	0.3 (28%)
	6	4	67 %	1.99			1.6 (26%)

* 1U Bet (ROI %): Many of the picks will have been part of a parlay, however, as a rough guide to value / profitability, this figure supposes that the handicapper put a 1U bet on each of the picks individually, showing the profit / loss they would have made and the ROI %.

Tail Mir Theory's bets

If you had tailed this handicapper's bets since they started logging their picks with us, it would have affected your betting bank balance as follows...

This is more accurate than simply X units total profit. Under that more basic system, 1 unit is equal to the same amount of theoretical dollars, whether it was the last event or 10 events ago. However, if a handicapper has 10 events profit in a row, their betting bank balance will be significantly larger for the 10th event and 1 unit will equal a LOT more than it did 10 events ago.

Date	Event	Bet	Won	ROI	Fee	1 unit =	Start	End
19th Jan	UFC on ESPN+ 1	20	4.7	24%		$10.00	$1,000.00	$1,047.50
2nd Feb	UFC Fight Night 144	17	13.8	81%		$10.47	$1,047.50	$1,192.16
9th Feb	UFC 234	8	0.1	1%		$11.92	$1,192.16	$1,192.78
17th Feb	UFC on ESPN 1	28	0.6	2%		$11.93	$1,192.78	$1,200.04
23rd Feb	UFC Fight Night 145	6.5	6.1	94%		$12.00	$1,200.04	$1,273.72
2nd Mar	UFC 235	7	0.9	13%		$12.74	$1,273.72	$1,285.13
9th Mar	UFC Fight Night 146	13.5	-7.4	-55%		$12.85	$1,285.13	$1,190.29
16th Mar	UFC Fight Night 147	17	-3.0	-17%		$11.90	$1,190.29	$1,155.06
23rd Mar	UFC Fight Night 148	12	3.1	26%		$11.55	$1,155.06	$1,191.23
30th Mar	UFC on ESPN 2	17.5	4.2	24%		$11.91	$1,191.23	$1,241.25
13th Apr	UFC 236	24.5	-9.9	-41%		$12.41	$1,241.25	$1,117.99
20th Apr	UFC Fight Night 149	5.5	5.8	106%		$11.18	$1,117.99	$1,182.89
27th Apr	UFC on ESPN 3	15	-4.1	-27%		$11.83	$1,182.89	$1,134.35
27th Apr	Bellator 220	3	1.2	41%		$11.34	$1,134.35	$1,148.30
4th May	UFC Fight Night 150	8.5	8.9	105%		$11.48	$1,148.30	$1,250.79
11th May	UFC 237	7	0.5	7%		$12.51	$1,250.79	$1,256.79
18th May	UFC Fight Night 152	12	-6.4	-53%		$12.57	$1,256.79	$1,176.32
1st Jun	UFC Fight Night 153	7.5	-1.8	-24%		$11.76	$1,176.32	$1,155.20
14th Jun	Bellator 222	5.5	0.6	10%		$11.55	$1,155.20	$1,161.84
22nd Jun	Bellator London	2.5	-2.5	-100%		$11.62	$1,161.84	$1,132.80
22nd Jun	UFC Fight Night 154	10.5	1.5	14%		$11.33	$1,132.80	$1,149.34
29th Jun	UFC on ESPN 3	7	-7.0	-100%		$11.49	$1,149.34	$1,068.88
20th Jul	UFC on ESPN 4	25	-12.2	-49%		$10.69	$1,068.88	$938.96
27th Jul	UFC 240	14.5	7.1	49%		$9.39	$938.96	$1,005.77
3rd Aug	UFC on ESPN 5	9	7.4	82%		$10.06	$1,005.77	$1,080.18
10th Aug	UFC Fight Night 156	23.5	12.6	54%		$10.80	$1,080.18	$1,216.37
17th Aug	UFC 241	14	-14.0	-100%		$12.16	$1,216.37	$1,046.08
7th Sep	UFC 242	17.5	-10.8	-62%		$10.46	$1,046.08	$932.94
8th Sep	Bellator 226	2.5	-2.5	-100%		$9.33	$932.94	$909.62
14th Sep	UFC Fight Night 158	41	-21.0	-51%		$9.10	$909.62	$718.60
18th Jan	UFC 246	44	11.5	26%		$7.19	$718.60	$801.60
9th Feb	UFC 247	32	-14.1	-44%		$8.02	$801.60	$688.37
22nd Feb	UFC Fight Night 168	45	-22.7	-50%		$6.88	$688.37	$532.11

ROI % from starting bank balance: -46.79% (including fees)
*Note - we don't store historical fee amounts, so we assume the fees are the same as the handicapper charges now.

Mir Theory: Last 20 Wins / Losses (Straight Picks)

Last 20 Wins

	Date	Straight Pick	Opponent	Odds	Bet	Result
1.	Feb '20	Brad Riddell	Magomed Mustafaev	2.23	10	Split Decision (3 rounds)
2.	Jan '20	Askar Askarov	Tim Elliott	1.75	11	U Decision (3 rounds)
3.	Jan '20	Holly Holm	Raquel Pennington	1.81	11	U Decision (3 rounds)
4.	Jan '20	Carlos Diego Ferreira	Anthony Pettis	1.49	11	Sub, R2 (1:46)
5.	Sep '19	Misha Cirkunov	Jim Crute	2.00	10	Sub, R1 (3:38)
6.	Sep '19	Omari Akhmedov	Zak Cummings	1.91	3.5	U Decision (3 rounds)
7.	Aug '19	Enrique Barzola	Bobby Moffett	1.83	4	Split Decision (3 rounds)
8.	Aug '19	Antonina Shevchenko	Lucie Pudilova	1.80	4	Sub, R2 (1:20)
9.	Jul '19	Gillian Robertson	Sarah Frota	1.91	4	TKO, R2 (4:13)
10.	Jul '19	Arman Tsarukyan	Olivier Aubin-Mercier	1.58	4	U Decision (3 rounds)
11.	Jul '19	Klidson Farias de Abreu	Sam Alvey	1.61	4	U Decision (3 rounds)
12.	Jul '19	Alex Caceres	Steven Peterson	1.83	3.5	U Decision (3 rounds)
13.	Jun '19	Jairzinho Rozenstruik	Allen Crowder	1.50	4	TKO, R1 (0:9)
14.	Jun '19	Kevin Holland	Alessio Di Chirico	1.49	4	U Decision (3 rounds)
15.	Jun '19	Kyoji Horiguchi	Darrion Caldwell	2.43	2.5	U Decision (5 rounds)
16.	Jun '19	Leonardo Santos	Stevie Ray	1.63	3.5	TKO, R1 (2:17)
17.	May '19	Jessica Andrade	Rose Namajunas	1.87	4	TKO, R2 (2:58)
18.	May '19	Derek Brunson	Elias Theodorou	2.05	4	U Decision (3 rounds)
19.	May '19	Donald Cerrone	Al Iaquinta	2.05	4.5	U Decision (5 rounds)
20.	Apr '19	Glover Teixeira	Ion Cutelaba	1.95	3.5	Sub, R2 (3:37)

Last 20 Losses

	Date	Straight Pick	Opponent	Odds	Bet	Result	Hedge?
1.	Feb '20	Joshua Culibao	Jalin Turner	2.80	5	TKO, R2 (3:1)	No
2.	Feb '20	Loma Lookboonmee	Angela Hill	2.74	10	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
3.	Feb '20	Ben Sosoli	Marcos Rogerio de Lima	2.29	10	TKO, R1 (1:28)	No
4.	Feb '20	Domingo Pilarte	Journey Newson	1.83	10	TKO, R1 (0:38)	No
5.	Sep '19	Michel Pereira	Tristan Connelly	1.21	11	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
6.	Sep '19	Ryan MacDonald	Louis Smolka	3.20	10	TKO, R1 (4:43)	No
7.	Sep '19	Cole Smith	Miles Johns	2.20	10	Split Decision (3 rounds)	No
8.	Sep '19	Tywan Claxton	Emmanuel Sanchez	2.62	2.5	Sub, R2 (4:11)	No
9.	Sep '19	Davi Ramos	Islam Makhachev	4.05	2.5	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
10.	Aug '19	Manny Bermudez	Casey Kenney	1.71	3.5	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
11.	Aug '19	Yoel Romero	Paulo Costa	1.73	3.5	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
12.	Aug '19	Daniel Cormier	Stipe Miocic	1.76	3.5	TKO, R4 (4:9)	No
13.	Aug '19	Raulian Paiva	Rogerio Bontorin	2.05	3	TKO, R1 (2:56)	No
14.	Aug '19	Ilir Latifi	Volkan Oezdemir	2.45	3.5	TKO, R2 (4:31)	No
15.	Jul '19	Irene Aldana	Raquel Pennington	1.76	3.5	Split Decision (3 rounds)	No
16.	Jul '19	Aleksei Oleinik	Walt Harris	2.42	3	TKO, R1 (0:12)	No
17.	Jul '19	James Vick	Daniel Hooker	2.28	3.5	TKO, R1 (2:33)	No
18.	Jul '19	Juan Adams	Greg Hardy	1.92	4	TKO, R1 (0:45)	No
19.	Jul '19	Rafael dos Anjos	Leon Edwards	2.12	3.5	U Decision (5 rounds)	No
20.	Jun '19	Vinicius Moreira	Eryk Anders	3.75	1.5	TKO, R1 (1:18)	No

* Hedge indicates that this handicapper also had a WINNING bet on the opponent. For example, they may have bet A to win straight up but with a hedge on the other fighter winning by decision.

Mir Theory: Progress Chart

Chart

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