MMA Handicapper Directory
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MMA Handicapper Stats: Dan Ely

Dan Ely (Tricky22)

MMA MHandicapper - Dan Ely

MMA Betting Stats Summary

Overall Stats		Straight Fight Picks		Props		Parlays
Right	168 (54%)	Right	141 (62%)	Right	10 (42%)	Right	17 (29%)
Wrong	144 (46%)	Wrong	88 (38%)	Wrong	14 (58%)	Wrong	42 (71%)
Avg Odds	1.87	Avg Odds	1.59	Avg Odds	2.28	Avg Odds	4.56
Units Bet	663.3	Units Bet	558.4	Units Bet	28.5	Units Bet	76.5
Avg Bet	2.13	Avg Bet	2.44	Avg Bet	1.19	Avg Bet	1.30
Units Profit	20.77	Units Profit	-5.23	Units Profit	-1.00	Units Profit	27.00
ROI %	3%	ROI %	-1%	ROI %	-4%	ROI %	35%

Dan Ely: Event by Event Predictions

The straight picks, parlays and props sections display Winnings / Bets (ROI%)

Date	Event	Bet	Won	ROI	Straight Picks	Props	Parlays
17th Feb '24	UFC 298	7	-7.0	-100%	-4.0 / 4 (-100%)	-0.5 / 0.5 (-100%)	-2.5 / 2.5 (-100%)
15th Aug '20	UFC 252	17.1	2.1	12%	2.1 / 17.1 (12%)
1st Aug '20	UFC Vegas 5	16.55	-4.5	-27%	-7.9 / 15.05 (-53%)	3.4 / 1.5 (227%)
9th Feb '20	UFC 247	35.72	-9.1	-25%	-1.9 / 22.72 (-8%)	-1.7 / 7.5 (-23%)	-5.5 / 5.5 (-100%)
31st Aug '19	UFC Fight Night 157	16.75	-1.5	-9%	0.9 / 13 (7%)		-2.4 / 3.75 (-65%)
24th Aug '19	Bellator 225	1	1.5	151%			1.5 / 1 (151%)
17th Aug '19	UFC 241	13.55	10.1	74%	4.1 / 12.55 (33%)		5.9 / 1 (590%)
20th Jul '19	UFC on ESPN 4	8.75	17.5	199%	3.7 / 5.25 (71%)		13.7 / 3.5 (392%)
13th Jul '19	UFC Fight Night 155	13.75	-6.5	-47%	-5.5 / 12.75 (-43%)		-1.0 / 1 (-100%)
6th Jul '19	UFC 239	42.85	-0.5	-1%	3.2 / 34 (9%)	-1.7 / 6.85 (-25%)	-2.0 / 2 (-100%)
29th Jun '19	UFC on ESPN 3	24.05	10.2	42%	6.8 / 20.3 (33%)		3.4 / 3.75 (90%)
22nd Jun '19	UFC Fight Night 154	21.65	-0.5	-2%	0.5 / 20.65 (2%)		-1.0 / 1 (-100%)
22nd Jun '19	Bellator London	4.7	-1.0	-21%	1.0 / 2.7 (37%)		-2.0 / 2 (-100%)
8th Jun '19	UFC 238	53.15	-8.1	-15%	-7.1 / 46.15 (-15%)	2.0 / 4 (50%)	-3.0 / 3 (-100%)
1st Jun '19	UFC Fight Night 153	20.6	-4.0	-19%	-1.5 / 18.1 (-8%)		-2.5 / 2.5 (-100%)
18th May '19	UFC Fight Night 152	67.2	-10.2	-15%	-8.2 / 65.2 (-13%)		-2.0 / 2 (-100%)
11th May '19	UFC 237	25.65	-1.8	-7%	-1.3 / 22.45 (-6%)	1.0 / 1.7 (59%)	-1.5 / 1.5 (-100%)
11th May '19	Bellator 221	5	-5.0	-100%			-5.0 / 5 (-100%)
4th May '19	UFC Fight Night 150	19.2	3.9	20%	3.9 / 19.2 (20%)
27th Apr '19	UFC on ESPN 3	10.94	1.0	9%	1.0 / 10.94 (9%)
13th Apr '19	UFC 236	10.6	-5.2	-50%	-3.5 / 8.85 (-40%)	-0.5 / 0.5 (-100%)	-1.3 / 1.25 (-100%)
16th Mar '19	UFC Fight Night 147	22.15	-6.7	-30%	-5.4 / 20.9 (-26%)		-1.3 / 1.25 (-100%)
2nd Mar '19	UFC 235	23.6	12.0	51%	5.6 / 20.1 (28%)		6.4 / 3.5 (182%)
23rd Feb '19	UFC Fight Night 145	25.45	-6.1	-24%	-2.6 / 21.95 (-12%)		-3.5 / 3.5 (-100%)
17th Feb '19	UFC on ESPN 1	15.5	0.3	2%	-5.8 / 10.25 (-57%)	-1.0 / 1 (-100%)	7.1 / 4.25 (168%)
16th Feb '19	Bellator 216	5.15	-0.8	-15%	-0.5 / 4.9 (-10%)		-0.3 / 0.25 (-100%)
9th Feb '19	UFC 234	17.55	10.2	58%	5.3 / 13.65 (39%)	0.0 / 2.9 (0%)	4.9 / 1 (488%)
25th Nov '18	Golden Boy Liddell vs Ortiz 3	12.2	15.5	127%	3.0 / 9.2 (33%)		12.5 / 3 (415%)
24th Nov '18	UFC Fight Night 141	19	7.7	40%	5.1 / 18.5 (28%)		2.6 / 0.5 (515%)
4th Aug '18	UFC 227	18.95	-1.8	-9%	-0.8 / 17.95 (-4%)	-0.5 / 0.5 (-100%)	-0.5 / 0.5 (-100%)
9th Jun '18	UFC 225	19	3.7	19%	3.0 / 14 (21%)	-1.5 / 1.5 (-100%)	2.2 / 3.5 (62%)
27th May '18	UFC Fight Night 130	9.5	-2.2	-23%	-1.2 / 8.5 (-14%)		-1.0 / 1 (-100%)
19th May '18	UFC Fight Night 129	10	-3.1	-31%	-1.1 / 8 (-14%)		-2.0 / 2 (-100%)
12th May '18	Bellator 199	10.5	3.2	30%	-1.0 / 4.5 (-22%)		4.1 / 6 (69%)
12th May '18	UFC 224	6.5	6.1	94%	2.8 / 6 (47%)		3.3 / 0.5 (657%)
28th Apr '18	Bellator 198	5	-1.6	-32%	-0.6 / 4 (-15%)		-1.0 / 1 (-100%)
21st Apr '18	UFC Fight Night 128	5.5	5.3	96%	2.6 / 5 (52%)		2.7 / 0.5 (535%)

Winning Events: 16 (43%)
Losing Events: 21 (57%)

Average Staked Per Event: 17.87 units
Most Staked On One Event: 67.20 units
Best Event: 17.45 units
Worst Event: -10.20 units
Average Event: 0.62 units

Max Win Streak: Events: 3, Units: 33.30
Max Losing Streak: Events: 7, Units: -30.56

Dan Ely: Year on Year Profit

Year	Bet	Won	ROI	Straight Won / Bet (ROI%)	Prop Won / Bet (ROI%)	Parlay Won / Bet (ROI%)	Events Won / Lost (%)	Profit Per Event
2024	7	-7.0	-100%	-4.0 / 4 (-100%)	-0.5 / 0.5 (-100%)	-2.5 / 2.5 (-100%)	/ 1 (0%)	-7.00
2020	69.37	-11.5	-17%	-7.7 / 54.87 (-14%)	1.7 / 9 (19%)	-5.5 / 5.5 (-100%)	1 / 2 (33%)	-3.83
2019	468.79	8.6	2%	-5.4 / 403.84 (-1%)	-0.2 / 16.95 (-1%)	14.2 / 48 (30%)	9 / 14 (39%)	0.38
2018	116.15	32.6	28%	11.9 / 95.65 (12%)	-2.0 / 2 (-100%)	22.8 / 18.5 (123%)	6 / 4 (60%)	3.26

Dan Ely: Yearly Straight Pick Stats

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Dan Ely: Profit / Loss by Organization

Organization	Bet	Won	ROI	Straight Picks	Props	Parlays
UFC	617.76	11.0	2%	-7.2 / 533.06 (-1%)	-1.0 / 28.45 (-4%)	19.2 / 56.25 (34%)
Bellator	31.35	-3.7	-12%	-1.1 / 16.1 (-7%)		-2.6 / 15.25 (-17%)
Other	12.2	15.5	127%	3.0 / 9.2 (33%)		12.5 / 3 (415%)

Dan Ely: Straight Pick Stats

Big favourite means >65% win chance according to bookies. Big underdog is <35% chance.

	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Units Bet	Units Profit	Profit per Pick	ROI
Big Favorites	112 (47%)	89	79 %	412.76	13.48	0.12	3%
Slight Favorites	77 (32%)	40	52 %	104.10	-15.81	-0.21	-15%
Slight Underdogs	38 (16%)	11	29 %	32.25	-10.95	-0.29	-34%
Big Underdogs	13 (5%)	7	54 %	9.25	8.05	0.62	87%

Betting Stats By Card Position

	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Units Bet	Units Profit	Profit per Pick	ROI
Main Event	29 (12%)	13	45 %	75.42	-27.51	-0.95	-36%
Co-Main Event	28 (12%)	20	71 %	81.94	7.39	0.26	9%
Position 3-5	70 (29%)	44	63 %	136.05	10.31	0.15	8%
6+ (Undercard)	113 (47%)	70	62 %	264.95	4.57	0.04	2%

Dan Ely: Profit by Weight Class

	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Units Bet	Units Profit	Profit per Pick	ROI
Heavyweight	21 (9%)	15	71 %	30.09	4.04	0.19	13%
Light Heavy	20 (8%)	10	50 %	61.67	-6.65	-0.33	-11%
Middleweight	25 (10%)	17	68 %	52.00	-6.96	-0.28	-13%
Welterweight	39 (16%)	19	49 %	79.10	-12.12	-0.31	-15%
Lightweight	29 (12%)	21	72 %	67.05	9.04	0.31	13%
Featherweight	31 (13%)	16	52 %	64.25	-6.46	-0.21	-10%
Bantamweight	26 (11%)	18	69 %	61.05	10.92	0.42	18%
Flyweight	4 (2%)	3	75 %	9.80	-1.60	-0.40	-16%

Women's Fights	45 (19%)	28	62 %	133.35	4.56	0.10	3%
Featherweight	6 (3%)	4	67 %	20.40	1.13	0.19	6%
Bantamweight	6 (3%)	4	67 %	13.60	1.51	0.25	11%
Flyweight	10 (4%)	6	60 %	45.15	-0.60	-0.06	-1%
Strawweight	23 (10%)	14	61 %	54.20	2.52	0.11	5%

Props & Parlay Section Stats (Individual sections of this handicapper's parlays)

Straight picks within parlays

	Picks	Correct	% Correct
Big Favorites	164 (63%)	134	82 %
Slight Favorites	68 (26%)	41	60 %
Slight Underdogs	24 (9%)	7	29 %
Big Underdogs	6 (2%)	4	67 %
	262	186	71 %

Props bets and props within parlays

	Picks	Correct	% Correct
>65% chance	6 (25%)	3	50 %
50-65%	3 (13%)	2	67 %
35-50%	5 (21%)	2	40 %
<35% chance	10 (42%)	3	30 %
	24	10	42 %

Prop Bets and Props within Parlays: Bet Types

Prop Type	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Avg Odds	Longest Odds	Shortest Odds	1U Bet (ROI %)
Over (e.g. 1.5 / 2.5 rnds)	4 (17%)	3	75 %	1.32	1.50	1.21	-0.1 (-1%)
Goes to Decision	2 (8%)	1	50 %	1.77	2.00	1.59	-0.4 (-21%)
Does not go to Decision	1 (4%)	1	100 %	2.90	2.90	2.90	1.9 (190%)
Fight Starts Round X	1 (4%)	0	0 %	1.50	1.50	1.50	-1.0 (-100%)
X Wins by KO	2 (8%)	0	0 %	2.34	5.00	1.53	-2.0 (-100%)
X Wins by Sub	2 (8%)	1	50 %	8.00	8.00	8.00	6.0 (300%)
X Wins by Decision	7 (29%)	1	14 %	3.08	5.00	1.74	-4.4 (-62%)
X Wins Inside Distance	1 (4%)	1	100 %	1.67	1.67	1.67	0.7 (67%)
Others	4 (17%)	2	50 %	2.89	3.60	2.40	1.8 (45%)
	24	10	42 %	2.28			2.6 (11%)

* 1U Bet (ROI %): Many of the picks will have been part of a parlay, however, as a rough guide to value / profitability, this figure supposes that the handicapper put a 1U bet on each of the picks individually, showing the profit / loss they would have made and the ROI %.

Tail Dan Ely's bets

If you had tailed this handicapper's bets since they started logging their picks with us, it would have affected your betting bank balance as follows...

This is more accurate than simply X units total profit. Under that more basic system, 1 unit is equal to the same amount of theoretical dollars, whether it was the last event or 10 events ago. However, if a handicapper has 10 events profit in a row, their betting bank balance will be significantly larger for the 10th event and 1 unit will equal a LOT more than it did 10 events ago.

Date	Event	Bet	Won	ROI	Fee	1 unit =	Start	End
21st Apr	UFC Fight Night 128	5.5	5.3	96%		$10.00	$1,000.00	$1,052.57
28th Apr	Bellator 198	5	-1.6	-32%		$10.53	$1,052.57	$1,035.84
12th May	UFC 224	6.5	6.1	94%		$10.36	$1,035.84	$1,099.14
12th May	Bellator 199	10.5	3.2	30%		$10.99	$1,099.14	$1,133.79
19th May	UFC Fight Night 129	10	-3.1	-31%		$11.34	$1,133.79	$1,098.39
27th May	UFC Fight Night 130	9.5	-2.2	-23%		$10.98	$1,098.39	$1,074.07
9th Jun	UFC 225	19	3.7	19%		$10.74	$1,074.07	$1,113.31
4th Aug	UFC 227	18.95	-1.8	-9%		$11.13	$1,113.31	$1,093.75
24th Nov	UFC Fight Night 141	19	7.7	40%		$10.94	$1,093.75	$1,177.70
25th Nov	Golden Boy Liddell vs Ortiz 3	12.2	15.5	127%		$11.78	$1,177.70	$1,359.90
9th Feb	UFC 234	17.55	10.2	58%		$13.60	$1,359.90	$1,497.95
16th Feb	Bellator 216	5.15	-0.8	-15%		$14.98	$1,497.95	$1,486.71
17th Feb	UFC on ESPN 1	15.5	0.3	2%		$14.87	$1,486.71	$1,491.65
23rd Feb	UFC Fight Night 145	25.45	-6.1	-24%		$14.92	$1,491.65	$1,400.65
2nd Mar	UFC 235	23.6	12.0	51%		$14.01	$1,400.65	$1,568.99
16th Mar	UFC Fight Night 147	22.15	-6.7	-30%		$15.69	$1,568.99	$1,464.18
13th Apr	UFC 236	10.6	-5.2	-50%		$14.64	$1,464.18	$1,387.31
27th Apr	UFC on ESPN 3	10.94	1.0	9%		$13.87	$1,387.31	$1,401.18
4th May	UFC Fight Night 150	19.2	3.9	20%		$14.01	$1,401.18	$1,455.17
11th May	Bellator 221	5	-5.0	-100%		$14.55	$1,455.17	$1,382.41
11th May	UFC 237	25.65	-1.8	-7%		$13.82	$1,382.41	$1,357.97
18th May	UFC Fight Night 152	67.2	-10.2	-15%		$13.58	$1,357.97	$1,219.46
1st Jun	UFC Fight Night 153	20.6	-4.0	-19%		$12.19	$1,219.46	$1,170.68
8th Jun	UFC 238	53.15	-8.1	-15%		$11.71	$1,170.68	$1,076.00
22nd Jun	Bellator London	4.7	-1.0	-21%		$10.76	$1,076.00	$1,065.24
22nd Jun	UFC Fight Night 154	21.65	-0.5	-2%		$10.65	$1,065.24	$1,059.92
29th Jun	UFC on ESPN 3	24.05	10.2	42%		$10.60	$1,059.92	$1,167.76
6th Jul	UFC 239	42.85	-0.5	-1%		$11.68	$1,167.76	$1,161.34
13th Jul	UFC Fight Night 155	13.75	-6.5	-47%		$11.61	$1,161.34	$1,085.85
20th Jul	UFC on ESPN 4	8.75	17.5	199%		$10.86	$1,085.85	$1,275.37
17th Aug	UFC 241	13.55	10.1	74%		$12.75	$1,275.37	$1,403.61
24th Aug	Bellator 225	1	1.5	151%		$14.04	$1,403.61	$1,424.81
31st Aug	UFC Fight Night 157	16.75	-1.5	-9%		$14.25	$1,424.81	$1,403.03
9th Feb	UFC 247	35.72	-9.1	-25%		$14.03	$1,403.03	$1,275.69
1st Aug	UFC Vegas 5	16.55	-4.5	-27%		$12.76	$1,275.69	$1,217.96
15th Aug	UFC 252	17.1	2.1	12%		$12.18	$1,217.96	$1,243.54
17th Feb	UFC 298	7	-7.0	-100%		$12.44	$1,243.54	$1,156.49

ROI % from starting bank balance: 15.65% (including fees)
*Note - we don't store historical fee amounts, so we assume the fees are the same as the handicapper charges now.

Dan Ely: Last 20 Wins / Losses (Straight Picks)

Last 20 Wins

	Date	Straight Pick	Opponent	Odds	Bet	Result
1.	Aug '20	Virna Jandiroba	Felice Herrig	1.34	2.9	Sub, R1 (1:44)
2.	Aug '20	Merab Dvalishvili	John Dodson	1.36	5.6	U Decision (3 rounds)
3.	Aug '20	Marlon Vera	Sean O'Malley	3.10	1	TKO, R1 (4:40)
4.	Aug '20	Jairzinho Rozenstruik	Junior dos Santos	1.77	1.3	TKO, R2 (3:47)
5.	Aug '20	Vinc Pichel	Jim Miller	1.77	1.3	U Decision (3 rounds)
6.	Aug '20	Jonathan Martinez	Frankie Saenz	1.39	2.55	TKO, R3 (0:57)
7.	Aug '20	Jennifer Maia	Joanne Wood	2.40	1	Sub, R1 (4:29)
8.	Aug '20	Bobby Green	Lando Vannata	2.35	0.5	U Decision (3 rounds)
9.	Feb '20	Justin Tafa	Juan Adams	3.05	0.5	TKO, R1 (1:59)
10.	Feb '20	Derrick Lewis	Ilir Latifi	1.48	4.2	U Decision (3 rounds)
11.	Feb '20	Valentina Shevchenko	Katlyn Chookagian	1.11	9	TKO, R3 (1:3)
12.	Feb '20	Jon Jones	Dominick Reyes	1.19	2.62	U Decision (5 rounds)
13.	Aug '19	Su Mudaerji	Andre Soukhamthath	2.25	1	U Decision (3 rounds)
14.	Aug '19	Damir Ismagulov	Thiago Moises	1.43	2.3	U Decision (3 rounds)
15.	Aug '19	Kai Kara-France	Mark Delarosa	1.47	2.15	U Decision (3 rounds)
16.	Aug '19	Mizuki Inoue	Yanan Wu	1.63	3.2	Split Decision (3 rounds)
17.	Aug '19	Sodiq Yusuff	Gabriel Benitez	1.31	3.25	TKO, R1 (4:14)
18.	Aug '19	Cory Sandhagen	Raphael Assuncao	1.40	5	U Decision (3 rounds)
19.	Aug '19	Nate Diaz	Anthony Pettis	2.15	1	U Decision (3 rounds)
20.	Aug '19	Paulo Costa	Yoel Romero	2.20	0.5	U Decision (3 rounds)

Last 20 Losses

	Date	Straight Pick	Opponent	Odds	Bet	Result	Hedge?
1.	Feb '24	Alex Volkanovski	Ilia Topuria	1.80	1	TKO, R2 (3:32)	No
2.	Feb '24	Henry Cejudo	Merab Dvalishvili	3.35	1	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
3.	Feb '24	Mackenzie Dern	Amanda Lemos	2.15	1	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
4.	Feb '24	Geoff Neal	Ian Garry	3.00	0.5	Split Decision (3 rounds)	No
5.	Feb '24	Valentine Woodburn	Oban Elliott	3.90	0.5	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
6.	Aug '20	Ashley Yoder	Livia Renata Souza	2.40	1	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
7.	Aug '20	Daniel Cormier	Stipe Miocic	1.83	1.2	U Decision (5 rounds)	No
8.	Aug '20	Herbert Burns	Daniel Pineda	1.36	2.8	TKO, R2 (4:37)	No
9.	Aug '20	Edmen Shahbazyan	Derek Brunson	1.26	11	TKO, R3 (0:26)	No
10.	Feb '20	Austin Lingo	Youssef Zalal	1.48	2.1	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
11.	Feb '20	Andrea Lee	Lauren Murphy	1.33	3.05	Split Decision (3 rounds)	No
12.	Feb '20	Mirsad Bektic	Dan Ige	1.80	1.25	Split Decision (3 rounds)	No
13.	Aug '19	Derrick Krantz	Kenan Song	1.77	1.3	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
14.	Aug '19	Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos	Li Jingliang	1.33	3.05	TKO, R3 (4:51)	No
15.	Aug '19	Manny Bermudez	Casey Kenney	1.56	1.8	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
16.	Jul '19	Aspen Ladd	Germaine de Randamie	1.74	1.35	TKO, R1 (0:16)	No
17.	Jul '19	Mirsad Bektic	Josh Emmett	1.57	1.75	TKO, R1 (4:25)	No
18.	Jul '19	Livia Renata Souza	Brianna Van Buren	1.87	1.15	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
19.	Jul '19	Mike Rodriguez	John Allan	1.21	4.7	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
20.	Jul '19	Alejandro Perez	Yadong Song	2.65	0.5	TKO, R1 (2:4)	No

* Hedge indicates that this handicapper also had a WINNING bet on the opponent. For example, they may have bet A to win straight up but with a hedge on the other fighter winning by decision.

Dan Ely: Progress Chart

Chart

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