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Straight Pick Stats
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Picks |
Correct |
% Correct |
Units Bet |
Units Profit |
Profit per Pick |
ROI |
| Big Favorites |
21 (27%) |
16 |
76 % |
21.00 |
0.66 |
0.03 |
3% |
| Slight Favorites |
8 (10%) |
4 |
50 % |
8.00 |
-1.12 |
-0.14 |
-14% |
| Slight Underdogs |
40 (51%) |
16 |
40 % |
40.00 |
-2.13 |
-0.05 |
-5% |
| Big Underdogs |
10 (13%) |
4 |
40 % |
9.40 |
3.41 |
0.34 |
36% |
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Progress Chart
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Click here to view breakdown of straight picks |
Panda UFC's MMA Handicapper Bio
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I'm a long time mma fan since the early 2000's with a bit of a background in statistical modelling. I recently wanted to try to put some of that knowledge to use by becoming an mma handicapper and taking a quantitative approach to my betting strategy that is informed by my knowledge of the sport.
My Betting Approach:
The way I pick basically every card is by creating what I call a quick pick list. The picks that I put on that list are picks that meet my odds criteria for a positive EV pick. You can think of this list as the discount rack. Not every quick pick will be for you but if one of your favorite fighters on this list, you can have the added confidence that you are getting them at a good price. Conversely, fighters that don't make my quick pick list for an event might be a bit too expensive or risky for my taste.
My favorite types of picks are slight underdog moneylines but I like including a balance of moderate to big favorites in cases where I understand the match-up and am fairly confident of how the match up will go. What I don't want to do is make a bunch of losing picks just because I am getting them at a good price. For this reason I try to not go too overboard with picking underdogs .
I pick UFC events a little bit differently than I do regional events because I am familiar enough with the UFC roster to make more advanced betting decisions. With UFC cards, I will color outside the lines a bit and play odds that don't model out statistically but that I have a high degree of confidence in because of my knowledge in the sport. Typically with regional cards, I keep my handicapping and picking process very basic as their are simply too many events to have my pulse on every fighter in every corner of the Earth. I will almost never watch film to handicap a regional event. Regional events are so high variance anyways that spending too much time getting into the weeds on these picks is likely a waste of effort. When it comes to the UFC, I like to put a little more thought and effort into those picks since it is easier to remember names and keep track of different fighters at this level. I don't typically do prop bets however if I find a good value prop bet on a UFC card I will play it from time to time.
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Picks on Upcoming MMA Fights by Panda UFC |
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This handicapper has made no picks on upcoming fights. |
Panda UFC's MMA Handicapper's Pick History
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Your $ bet per unit is set at $10. You can edit that value in your settings.
| |
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
| Pr |
Patricky Freire vs Alexander Shabliy |
Under 2.5 rounds |
L |
2.20 |
|
|
1 |
-1.00 |
$-10.00 |
-100% |
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Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
| Pr |
Yaroslav Amosov vs Jason Jackson |
Under 4.5 rounds |
W |
2.10 |
|
|
1 |
1.10 |
$11.00 |
110% |
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| |
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
| Pi |
Keri Melendez vs Sabriye Sengül |
Melendez to win |
W |
1.42 |
| Pi |
Yaroslav Amosov vs Jason Jackson |
Amosov to win |
L |
1.24 |
| |
|
Parlay Odds: |
1.75 |
|
|
1 |
-1.00 |
$-10.00 |
-100% |
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| Prop & Parlay Event Totals: |
|
3.00 |
-0.90 |
$-9.00 |
-30% |
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| Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets): |
|
10.00 |
-2.37 |
$-23.74 |
-24% |
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| |
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
| Pr |
Joshua Van vs Kevin Borjas |
Fight goes the distance |
W |
2.20 |
|
|
1 |
1.20 |
$12.00 |
120% |
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Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
| Pr |
Jamall Emmers vs Dennis Buzukja |
Fight doesn't go the distance |
W |
2.80 |
|
|
1 |
1.80 |
$18.00 |
180% |
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| Prop & Parlay Event Totals: |
|
2.00 |
3.00 |
$30.00 |
150% |
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| Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets): |
|
12.00 |
4.31 |
$43.14 |
36% |
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| |
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
| Pi |
Luca Borando vs Wesley Machado |
Borando to win |
W |
1.20 |
| Pi |
Jimmy Quinn vs Tom Wright |
Quinn to win |
L |
1.36 |
| |
|
Parlay Odds: |
1.63 |
|
|
1 |
-1.00 |
$-10.00 |
-100% |
|
| Prop & Parlay Event Totals: |
|
1.00 |
-1.00 |
$-10.00 |
-100% |
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| Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets): |
|
5.00 |
0.55 |
$5.50 |
11% |
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| Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets): |
|
4.00 |
3.89 |
$38.92 |
97% |
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Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
| Pr |
Gabriel Bonfim vs Nicolas Dalby |
Over 1.5 rounds |
W |
2.00 |
|
|
1 |
1.00 |
$10.00 |
100% |
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| Prop & Parlay Event Totals: |
|
1.00 |
1.00 |
$10.00 |
100% |
|
| Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets): |
|
9.00 |
0.38 |
$3.84 |
4% |
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| Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets): |
|
6.00 |
-4.66 |
$-46.61 |
-78% |
|
| Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets): |
|
8.00 |
-0.71 |
$-7.11 |
-9% |
|
| Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets): |
|
2.00 |
0.30 |
$3.00 |
15% |
|
| Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets): |
|
5.00 |
-2.35 |
$-23.50 |
-47% |
|
| Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets): |
|
9.00 |
-5.37 |
$-53.67 |
-60% |
|
| Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets): |
|
3.00 |
1.90 |
$19.00 |
63% |
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| Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets): |
|
4.00 |
1.20 |
$12.00 |
30% |
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| |
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
| Pi |
Daniel Gonzales vs Jordan Burkholder |
Burkholder to win |
W |
1.17 |
| Pi |
Austin Waterman vs Chaz Polson |
Waterman to win |
L |
1.15 |
| |
|
Parlay Odds: |
1.35 |
|
|
1 |
-1.00 |
$-10.00 |
-100% |
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| Prop & Parlay Event Totals: |
|
1.00 |
-1.00 |
$-10.00 |
-100% |
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| Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets): |
|
6.40 |
2.87 |
$28.67 |
45% |
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Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
| Pi |
Warlley Alves vs Ikram Aliskerov |
Aliskerov to win |
W |
1.18 |
| Pi |
Kamaru Usman vs Khamzat Chimaev |
Chimaev to win |
W |
1.35 |
| |
|
Parlay Odds: |
1.60 |
|
|
1 |
0.60 |
$5.96 |
60% |
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Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
| Pi |
Magomed Ankalaev vs Johnny Walker |
Ankalaev to win |
NA |
1.28 |
| Pi |
Anshul Jubli vs Mike Breeden |
Jubli to win |
L |
1.29 |
| |
|
Parlay Odds: |
1.65 |
|
|
1 |
-1.00 |
$-10.00 |
-100% |
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Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
| Pi |
Javid Basharat vs Victor Henry |
Basharat to win |
NA |
1.19 |
| Pi |
Jinh Yu Frey vs Viktoriya Dudakova |
Dudakova to win |
W |
1.21 |
| |
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Parlay Odds: |
1.43 |
|
|
1 |
0.21 |
$2.06 |
21% |
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| Prop & Parlay Event Totals: |
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3.00 |
-0.20 |
$-1.97 |
-7% |
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| Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets): |
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9.00 |
1.78 |
$17.83 |
20% |
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>>>> Showing Last 20 events: Click to view full history
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