MMA Handicapper Directory
Total MMA Handicappers: 6727
Profitable MMA Handicappers: 2448

MMA Handicapper Stats: Fat Chance Phil 🚮

Fat Chance Phil 🚮 (Phil the Bin)

MMA MHandicapper - Fat Chance Phil 🚮

MMA Betting Stats Summary

Overall Stats		Straight Fight Picks		Props		Parlays
Right	51 (41%)	Right	30 (44%)	Right	14 (35%)	Right	7 (41%)
Wrong	74 (59%)	Wrong	38 (56%)	Wrong	26 (65%)	Wrong	10 (59%)
Avg Odds	2.30	Avg Odds	2.14	Avg Odds	2.56	Avg Odds	2.46
Units Bet	323.3	Units Bet	207.8	Units Bet	57.0	Units Bet	58.5
Avg Bet	2.59	Avg Bet	3.06	Avg Bet	1.43	Avg Bet	3.44
Units Profit	34.93	Units Profit	33.70	Units Profit	-11.79	Units Profit	13.01
ROI %	11%	ROI %	16%	ROI %	-21%	ROI %	22%

Fat Chance Phil 🚮: Event by Event Predictions

The straight picks, parlays and props sections display Winnings / Bets (ROI%)

Date	Event	Bet	Won	ROI	Straight Picks	Props	Parlays
6th Oct '24	Fury FC 97	5	-5.0	-100%	-5.0 / 5 (-100%)
5th Oct '24	UFC 307	21.5	-7.2	-33%	-1.0 / 1 (-100%)	-1.2 / 13 (-9%)	-5.0 / 7.5 (-67%)
4th Oct '24	ONE Fight Night 25	5	2.8	56%	2.8 / 5 (56%)
4th Oct '24	Unified MMA 59	5	-5.0	-100%	-5.0 / 5 (-100%)
4th Oct '24	ACA 180	5	3.4	67%	3.4 / 5 (67%)
1st Oct '24	Contender Series 2024: Week 8	6	-0.4	-7%		-0.4 / 6 (-7%)
28th Sep '24	PFL Europe 3	5	2.8	56%	2.8 / 5 (56%)
28th Sep '24	UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint-Denis	46	-4.3	-9%	-4.3 / 46 (-9%)
28th Sep '24	UAE Warriors 54	5	1.3	25%	1.3 / 5 (25%)
27th Sep '24	CFFC 136	0.9	1.0	115%	1.0 / 0.9 (115%)
27th Sep '24	UAE Warriors 53	0.9	-0.9	-100%	-0.9 / 0.9 (-100%)
26th Sep '24	Ares FC 25	5.5	2.5	45%	2.5 / 5.5 (45%)
24th Sep '24	Contender Series 2024: Week 7	10	6.3	63%	4.8 / 1 (475%)		1.5 / 9 (17%)
21st Sep '24	Cage Warriors 178	13	5.9	46%	5.9 / 13 (46%)
21st Sep '24	Oktagon 61	18	8.2	46%	8.2 / 18 (46%)
20th Sep '24	Invicta FC 57	5	7.5	150%			7.5 / 5 (150%)
20th Sep '24	Cage Warriors 177	5	-5.0	-100%			-5.0 / 5 (-100%)
20th Sep '24	PFL MENA 3: Playoffs	5	-5.0	-100%			-5.0 / 5 (-100%)
17th Sep '24	Contender Series 2024: Week 6	9	-9.0	-100%	-5.0 / 5 (-100%)	-4.0 / 4 (-100%)
14th Sep '24	UFC 306	8	9.1	113%	9.1 / 8 (113%)
14th Sep '24	Bellator Champions Series	14	0.1	1%	0.1 / 14 (1%)
14th Sep '24	KSW 98	3	-3.0	-100%	-3.0 / 3 (-100%)
13th Sep '24	LFA 192	18	-11.0	-61%	-3.0 / 10 (-30%)	-5.0 / 5 (-100%)	-3.0 / 3 (-100%)
10th Sep '24	Contender Series 2024: Week 5	10	-4.6	-46%		0.4 / 5 (8%)	-5.0 / 5 (-100%)
8th Sep '24	ACA 179	5	3.9	77%	3.9 / 5 (77%)
7th Sep '24	Bellator Champions Series	4	-4.0	-100%	-2.0 / 2 (-100%)	-2.0 / 2 (-100%)
7th Sep '24	UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady	6	4.8	80%		0.7 / 3 (22%)	4.1 / 3 (138%)
7th Sep '24	Cage Warriors 176	4	20.1	504%			20.1 / 4 (504%)
7th Sep '24	Oktagon 60	3.5	-3.5	-100%	-3.5 / 3.5 (-100%)
7th Sep '24	FCR 21	3	1.9	62%			1.9 / 3 (62%)
6th Sep '24	ONE 168	3	1.2	40%	1.2 / 3 (40%)
6th Sep '24	A1 Combat 24	1	-1.0	-100%	-1.0 / 1 (-100%)
6th Sep '24	BFL 81	2	1.3	63%	1.3 / 2 (63%)
5th Sep '24	Ares FC 24	5	4.9	97%			4.9 / 5 (97%)
3rd Sep '24	Contender Series 2024: Week 4	27	30.5	113%	32.5 / 10 (325%)	2.0 / 13 (15%)	-4.0 / 4 (-100%)
30th Aug '24	LFA 191	20	-8.2	-41%	-8.2 / 20 (-41%)
27th Aug '24	Contender Series 2024: Week 3	11	-7.2	-65%	-5.0 / 5 (-100%)	-2.2 / 6 (-37%)

Winning Events: 20 (54%)
Losing Events: 17 (46%)

Average Staked Per Event: 8.74 units
Most Staked On One Event: 46.00 units
Best Event: 30.50 units
Worst Event: -10.95 units
Average Event: 0.94 units

Max Win Streak: Events: 5, Units: 36.63
Max Losing Streak: Events: 3, Units: -19.00

Fat Chance Phil 🚮: Year on Year Profit

Year	Bet	Won	ROI	Straight Won / Bet (ROI%)	Prop Won / Bet (ROI%)	Parlay Won / Bet (ROI%)	Events Won / Lost (%)	Profit Per Event
2024	323.3	34.9	11%	33.7 / 207.8 (16%)		13.0 / 58.5 (22%)	20 / 17 (54%)	0.94

Fat Chance Phil 🚮: Yearly Straight Pick Stats

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Fat Chance Phil 🚮: Profit / Loss by Organization

Organization	Bet	Won	ROI	Straight Picks	Props	Parlays
UFC	81.5	2.3	3%	3.7 / 55 (7%)	-0.5 / 16 (-3%)	-0.9 / 10.5 (-8%)
Bellator	18	-3.9	-22%	-1.9 / 16 (-12%)	-2.0 / 2 (-100%)
PFL	10	-2.2	-22%	2.8 / 5 (56%)		-5.0 / 5 (-100%)
Other	213.8	38.7	18%	29.1 / 131.8 (22%)	-9.3 / 39 (-24%)	18.9 / 43 (44%)

Fat Chance Phil 🚮: Straight Pick Stats

Big favourite means >65% win chance according to bookies. Big underdog is <35% chance.

	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Units Bet	Units Profit	Profit per Pick	ROI
Big Favorites	12 (18%)	9	75 %	45.00	7.27	0.61	16%
Slight Favorites	20 (29%)	11	55 %	79.00	1.86	0.09	2%
Slight Underdogs	16 (24%)	7	44 %	51.50	-0.42	-0.03	-1%
Big Underdogs	20 (29%)	3	15 %	32.30	24.99	1.25	77%

Betting Stats By Card Position

	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Units Bet	Units Profit	Profit per Pick	ROI
Main Event	14 (21%)	6	43 %	42.60	-3.02	-0.22	-7%
Co-Main Event	10 (15%)	5	50 %	26.30	-0.98	-0.10	-4%
Position 3-5	19 (28%)	6	32 %	52.90	19.86	1.05	38%
6+ (Undercard)	25 (37%)	13	52 %	86.00	17.84	0.71	21%

Fat Chance Phil 🚮: Profit by Weight Class

	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Units Bet	Units Profit	Profit per Pick	ROI
Heavyweight	1 (1%)	1	100 %	1.00	4.75	4.75	475%
Light Heavy	2 (3%)	1	50 %	6.50	2.65	1.32	41%
Middleweight	8 (12%)	2	25 %	15.80	-6.26	-0.78	-40%
Welterweight	7 (10%)	4	57 %	19.90	0.44	0.06	2%
Lightweight	16 (24%)	8	50 %	58.60	13.66	0.85	23%
Featherweight	9 (13%)	2	22 %	28.00	-17.20	-1.91	-61%
Bantamweight	7 (10%)	3	43 %	24.80	1.25	0.18	5%
Flyweight	6 (9%)	3	50 %	20.00	-2.19	-0.37	-11%

Women's Fights	12 (18%)	6	50 %	33.20	36.60	3.05	110%
Featherweight	2 (3%)		0 %	4.00	-4.00	-2.00	-100%
Bantamweight	3 (4%)	1	33 %	8.30	-0.60	-0.20	-7%
Flyweight	4 (6%)	2	50 %	10.90	38.17	9.54	350%
Strawweight	3 (4%)	3	100 %	10.00	3.03	1.01	30%

Props & Parlay Section Stats (Individual sections of this handicapper's parlays)

Straight picks within parlays

	Picks	Correct	% Correct
Big Favorites	20 (57%)	15	75 %
Slight Favorites	9 (26%)	4	44 %
Slight Underdogs	4 (11%)	2	50 %
Big Underdogs	2 (6%)	2	100 %
	35	23	66 %

Props bets and props within parlays

	Picks	Correct	% Correct
>65% chance	3 (8%)	2	67 %
50-65%	6 (15%)	2	33 %
35-50%	17 (44%)	7	41 %
<35% chance	13 (33%)	2	15 %
	39	13	33 %

Prop Bets and Props within Parlays: Bet Types

Prop Type	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Avg Odds	Longest Odds	Shortest Odds	1U Bet (ROI %)
Over (e.g. 1.5 / 2.5 rnds)	11 (28%)	8	73 %	1.84	3.65	1.45	5.7 (51%)
Under (e.g. 1.5 / 2.5 rnds)	17 (44%)	4	24 %	2.60	4.50	2.20	-6.8 (-40%)
X Wins by KO	2 (5%)	0	0 %	25.96	34.00	21.00	-2.0 (-100%)
X Wins by Sub	2 (5%)	0	0 %	9.33	21.00	6.00	-2.0 (-100%)
X Wins Inside Distance	3 (8%)	0	0 %	1.94	3.25	1.61	-3.0 (-100%)
Others	4 (10%)	1	25 %	4.03	11.00	2.40	1.0 (25%)
	39	13	33 %	2.54			-7.2 (-18%)

* 1U Bet (ROI %): Many of the picks will have been part of a parlay, however, as a rough guide to value / profitability, this figure supposes that the handicapper put a 1U bet on each of the picks individually, showing the profit / loss they would have made and the ROI %.

Tail Fat Chance Phil 🚮's bets

If you had tailed this handicapper's bets since they started logging their picks with us, it would have affected your betting bank balance as follows...

This is more accurate than simply X units total profit. Under that more basic system, 1 unit is equal to the same amount of theoretical dollars, whether it was the last event or 10 events ago. However, if a handicapper has 10 events profit in a row, their betting bank balance will be significantly larger for the 10th event and 1 unit will equal a LOT more than it did 10 events ago.

Date	Event	Bet	Won	ROI	Fee	1 unit =	Start	End
27th Aug	Contender Series 2024: Week 3	11	-7.2	-65%		$10.00	$1,000.00	$928.00
30th Aug	LFA 191	20	-8.2	-41%		$9.28	$928.00	$851.72
3rd Sep	Contender Series 2024: Week 4	27	30.5	113%		$8.52	$851.72	$1,111.48
5th Sep	Ares FC 24	5	4.9	97%		$11.11	$1,111.48	$1,165.60
6th Sep	A1 Combat 24	1	-1.0	-100%		$11.66	$1,165.60	$1,153.94
6th Sep	BFL 81	2	1.3	63%		$11.54	$1,153.94	$1,168.48
6th Sep	ONE 168	3	1.2	40%		$11.68	$1,168.48	$1,182.50
7th Sep	FCR 21	3	1.9	62%		$11.83	$1,182.50	$1,204.59
7th Sep	Oktagon 60	3.5	-3.5	-100%		$12.05	$1,204.59	$1,162.43
7th Sep	Cage Warriors 176	4	20.1	504%		$11.62	$1,162.43	$1,396.65
7th Sep	UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady	6	4.8	80%		$13.97	$1,396.65	$1,463.38
7th Sep	Bellator Champions Series	4	-4.0	-100%		$14.63	$1,463.38	$1,404.85
8th Sep	ACA 179	5	3.9	77%		$14.05	$1,404.85	$1,458.93
10th Sep	Contender Series 2024: Week 5	10	-4.6	-46%		$14.59	$1,458.93	$1,391.53
13th Sep	LFA 192	18	-11.0	-61%		$13.92	$1,391.53	$1,239.16
14th Sep	Bellator Champions Series	14	0.1	1%		$12.39	$1,239.16	$1,240.40
14th Sep	KSW 98	3	-3.0	-100%		$12.40	$1,240.40	$1,203.18
14th Sep	UFC 306	8	9.1	113%		$12.03	$1,203.18	$1,312.31
17th Sep	Contender Series 2024: Week 6	9	-9.0	-100%		$13.12	$1,312.31	$1,194.21
20th Sep	PFL MENA 3: Playoffs	5	-5.0	-100%		$11.94	$1,194.21	$1,134.49
20th Sep	Cage Warriors 177	5	-5.0	-100%		$11.34	$1,134.49	$1,077.77
20th Sep	Invicta FC 57	5	7.5	150%		$10.78	$1,077.77	$1,158.42
21st Sep	Oktagon 61	18	8.2	46%		$11.58	$1,158.42	$1,253.41
21st Sep	Cage Warriors 178	13	5.9	46%		$12.53	$1,253.41	$1,327.86
24th Sep	Contender Series 2024: Week 7	10	6.3	63%		$13.28	$1,327.86	$1,411.03
26th Sep	Ares FC 25	5.5	2.5	45%		$14.11	$1,411.03	$1,446.31
27th Sep	UAE Warriors 53	0.9	-0.9	-100%		$14.46	$1,446.31	$1,433.29
27th Sep	CFFC 136	0.9	1.0	115%		$14.33	$1,433.29	$1,448.13
28th Sep	UAE Warriors 54	5	1.3	25%		$14.48	$1,448.13	$1,466.23
28th Sep	UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint-Denis	46	-4.3	-9%		$14.66	$1,466.23	$1,402.74
28th Sep	PFL Europe 3	5	2.8	56%		$14.03	$1,402.74	$1,442.01
1st Oct	Contender Series 2024: Week 8	6	-0.4	-7%		$14.42	$1,442.01	$1,435.67
4th Oct	ACA 180	5	3.4	67%		$14.36	$1,435.67	$1,483.76
4th Oct	Unified MMA 59	5	-5.0	-100%		$14.84	$1,483.76	$1,409.58
4th Oct	ONE Fight Night 25	5	2.8	56%		$14.10	$1,409.58	$1,449.04
5th Oct	UFC 307	21.5	-7.2	-33%		$14.49	$1,449.04	$1,345.02
6th Oct	Fury FC 97	5	-5.0	-100%		$13.45	$1,345.02	$1,277.77

ROI % from starting bank balance: 27.78% (including fees)
*Note - we don't store historical fee amounts, so we assume the fees are the same as the handicapper charges now.

Fat Chance Phil 🚮: Last 20 Wins / Losses (Straight Picks)

Last 20 Wins

	Date	Straight Pick	Opponent	Odds	Bet	Result
1.	Oct '24	Mansur Malachiev	Bokang Masunyane	1.56	5	U Decision (3 rounds)
2.	Oct '24	Mehdi Baidulaev	Magomed Bibulatov	1.67	5	Sub, R1 (3:26)
3.	Sep '24	Connor Hughes	Ignacio Capella	1.56	5	U Decision (3 rounds)
4.	Sep '24	Lany Silva	Sofiia Bagishvili	1.25	5	Sub, R1 (3:57)
5.	Sep '24	Blayne Richards	Raheam Forest	2.15	0.9	Sub, R1 (3:20)
6.	Sep '24	Axel Sola	Soslan Gagloev	1.60	5	TKO, R2 (4:59)
7.	Sep '24	Danylo Voievodkin	Bailey Schoenfelder	5.75	1	Sub, R1 (1:13)
8.	Sep '24	Jacqueline Cavalcanti	Nora Cornolle	1.54	5	Split Decision (3 rounds)
9.	Sep '24	Chris Duncan (2)	Bolaji Oki	2.75	2.9	Sub, R1 (3:34)
10.	Sep '24	Ion Cutelaba	Ivan Erslan	1.83	5	Split Decision (3 rounds)
11.	Sep '24	Bryan Battle	Kevin Jousset	1.56	5	TKO, R2 (3:47)
12.	Sep '24	Renato Moicano	Benoit Saint-Denis	3.35	2.7	TKO, R2 (5:0)
13.	Sep '24	Harry Shaw	Stef Murray	1.50	5	U Decision (3 rounds)
14.	Sep '24	Shay Ingram	Marc-Philippe Ngatchou	1.43	8	U Decision (3 rounds)
15.	Sep '24	Jack Cartwright	Mate Sanikidze	1.77	5	U Decision (3 rounds)
16.	Sep '24	Andrej Kalasnik	John Palaiologos	1.47	5	U Decision (3 rounds)
17.	Sep '24	George Staines	Jakub Tichota	2.00	5	U Decision (3 rounds)
18.	Sep '24	Darragh Kelly	Dmytrii Hrytsenko	2.50	3	U Decision (3 rounds)
19.	Sep '24	Ignacio Bahamondes	Manuel Torres	2.10	5	TKO, R1 (4:2)
20.	Sep '24	Valentina Shevchenko	Alexa Grasso	2.19	3	U Decision (5 rounds)

Last 20 Losses

	Date	Straight Pick	Opponent	Odds	Bet	Result	Hedge?
1.	Oct '24	Ketlen Vieira	Kayla Harrison	8.50	1	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
2.	Oct '24	Vilson Ndregjoni	Justice Torres	1.71	5	U Decision (5 rounds)	No
3.	Oct '24	Alex Morgan	Jeremy Henry	1.67	5	Sub, R1 (3:2)	No
4.	Sep '24	Aitana Alvarez	Amena Hadaya	2.20	0.9	Split Decision (3 rounds)	No
5.	Sep '24	Milton Mateus	Shamkhan Kushagov	13.00	0.5	Sub, R1 (4:2)	No
6.	Sep '24	Vincent Morales	Taylor Lapilus	3.85	1.8	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
7.	Sep '24	Gabriel Miranda	Morgan Charriere	6.00	1	TKO, R2 (0:27)	No
8.	Sep '24	Roosevelt Roberts	Ludovit Klein	6.50	1	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
9.	Sep '24	Da Woon Jung	Oumar Sy	4.50	1.5	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
10.	Sep '24	Victor Altamirano	Daniel Barez	1.89	5	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
11.	Sep '24	Dariya Zheleznyakova	Ailin Perez	3.18	2.3	Sub, R1 (3:52)	No
12.	Sep '24	Joanderson Brito	William Gomis	1.37	5	Split Decision (3 rounds)	No
13.	Sep '24	Matt Frevola	Fares Ziam	2.03	5	TKO, R3 (2:59)	No
14.	Sep '24	Brendan Allen	Nassourdine Imavov	2.80	2.8	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
15.	Sep '24	Scott Askham	Makhmud Muradov	4.75	1	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
16.	Sep '24	Mateusz Legierski	Losene Keita	3.50	2	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
17.	Sep '24	Joey Hart	Benjamin Bennett	1.91	5	Split Decision (3 rounds)	No
18.	Sep '24	Steven Hill	Joseph Luciano	2.75	2	Sub, R2 (1:22)	No
19.	Sep '24	Leah McCourt	Sara Collins	1.91	3	Sub, R1 (2:25)	No
20.	Sep '24	Manoel Sousa	Archie Colgan	2.50	3	U Decision (3 rounds)	No

* Hedge indicates that this handicapper also had a WINNING bet on the opponent. For example, they may have bet A to win straight up but with a hedge on the other fighter winning by decision.

Fat Chance Phil 🚮: Progress Chart

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