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MMA Handicapper Stats: El Topo

El Topo (ElTopoMMA)

MMA MHandicapper - El Topo

MMA Betting Stats Summary

Overall Stats		Straight Fight Picks		Props		Parlays
Right	88 (42%)	Right	34 (44%)	Right	37 (34%)	Right	17 (74%)
Wrong	122 (58%)	Wrong	43 (56%)	Wrong	73 (66%)	Wrong	6 (26%)
Avg Odds	2.59	Avg Odds	2.31	Avg Odds	3.00	Avg Odds	2.08
Units Bet	357.4	Units Bet	140.0	Units Bet	167.4	Units Bet	50.0
Avg Bet	1.70	Avg Bet	1.82	Avg Bet	1.52	Avg Bet	2.17
Units Profit	28.88	Units Profit	9.42	Units Profit	-3.21	Units Profit	22.66
ROI %	8%	ROI %	7%	ROI %	-2%	ROI %	45%

El Topo: Event by Event Predictions

The straight picks, parlays and props sections display Winnings / Bets (ROI%)

Date	Event	Bet	Won	ROI	Straight Picks	Props	Parlays
2nd Dec '23	UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan	11	2.2	20%	3.2 / 5.5 (59%)	1.9 / 2.5 (77%)	-3.0 / 3 (-100%)
24th Nov '23	PFL 10: 2023 PFL World Championship	6	3.8	63%	4.8 / 5 (95%)	-1.0 / 1 (-100%)
18th Nov '23	UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig	3	3.0	101%			3.0 / 3 (101%)
11th Nov '23	UFC 295	25.5	-10.7	-42%	-1.8 / 10.5 (-17%)	-8.9 / 15 (-59%)
11th Nov '23	KSW 88	2.5	5.5	220%	5.5 / 2.5 (220%)
4th Nov '23	UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Almeida	7.75	6.8	88%	10.0 / 4.5 (223%)	-3.3 / 3.25 (-100%)
27th Oct '23	Invicta FC 54	7	0.7	9%	0.7 / 7 (9%)
21st Oct '23	UFC 294	23.33	-7.7	-33%	-0.5 / 7.5 (-7%)	-7.2 / 15.83 (-46%)
14th Oct '23	UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Barboza	12	-6.0	-50%	-4.5 / 4.5 (-100%)	-1.5 / 7.5 (-20%)
7th Oct '23	Bellator 300	5	4.9	98%		1.3 / 1.5 (83%)	3.7 / 3.5 (105%)
7th Oct '23	UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Green	20.5	-7.9	-38%	0.6 / 7 (9%)	-8.5 / 13.5 (-63%)
3rd Oct '23	Contender Series 2023: Week 9	1.5	3.2	210%	3.2 / 1.5 (210%)
23rd Sep '23	UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gamrot	9.5	8.9	93%	2.9 / 1.5 (195%)	3.8 / 5.5 (68%)	2.2 / 2.5 (88%)
22nd Sep '23	LFA 168	1.5	2.3	150%	2.3 / 1.5 (150%)
16th Sep '23	UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Shevchenko II	15.5	1.1	7%	-0.3 / 4 (-8%)	0.6 / 8.5 (7%)	0.8 / 3 (27%)
12th Sep '23	Contender Series 2023: Week 6	3	0.5	17%	-2.0 / 2 (-100%)	2.5 / 1 (250%)
9th Sep '23	UFC 293	19.5	-5.9	-30%	-3.0 / 3 (-100%)	-0.4 / 14 (-3%)	-2.5 / 2.5 (-100%)
2nd Sep '23	UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Spivac	13.25	-1.0	-7%	-4.1 / 8 (-51%)	0.2 / 3.25 (7%)	2.9 / 2 (144%)
1st Sep '23	CFFC 123	1.5	-1.5	-100%	-1.5 / 1.5 (-100%)
29th Aug '23	Contender Series 2023: Week 4	4	-0.8	-20%	-2.5 / 2.5 (-100%)		1.7 / 1.5 (112%)
26th Aug '23	UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Jung	19.25	-4.2	-22%	-4.5 / 4.5 (-100%)	0.3 / 14.75 (2%)
23rd Aug '23	PFL 9: 2023 Playoffs	2.2	-2.2	-100%		-0.2 / 0.2 (-100%)	-2.0 / 2 (-100%)
22nd Aug '23	Contender Series 2023: Week 3	4	2.1	52%	2.1 / 4 (52%)
19th Aug '23	UFC 292	16.25	-3.3	-20%	-1.3 / 6 (-21%)	-0.0 / 8.25 (-0%)	-2.0 / 2 (-100%)
18th Aug '23	PFL 8: 2023 Playoffs	3.25	3.9	119%		2.9 / 2.25 (127%)	1.0 / 1 (101%)
15th Aug '23	Contender Series 2023: Week 2	2	-2.0	-100%	-2.0 / 2 (-100%)
12th Aug '23	UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos Anjos	7.5	7.5	100%	-1.5 / 1.5 (-100%)	9.0 / 6 (150%)
11th Aug '23	Bellator 298	4.5	0.2	5%	-2.5 / 2.5 (-100%)		2.7 / 2 (136%)
8th Aug '23	Contender Series 2023: Week 1	1.5	1.0	70%	1.0 / 1.5 (70%)
5th Aug '23	UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Font	5.7	2.6	46%	-2.5 / 2.5 (-100%)	5.1 / 3.2 (160%)
4th Aug '23	PFL 7: 2023 Playoffs	6.5	0.5	8%	-1.5 / 1.5 (-100%)	0.5 / 3 (15%)	1.5 / 2 (77%)
29th Jul '23	UFC 291	9.25	9.8	106%	2.0 / 1.5 (130%)	4.4 / 4.25 (103%)	3.5 / 3.5 (99%)
22nd Jul '23	UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura	17	7.5	44%	2.5 / 7 (35%)	2.6 / 7.5 (35%)	2.4 / 2.5 (97%)
15th Jul '23	UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Bueno Silva	12	-1.2	-10%	-0.2 / 6 (-4%)	-3.0 / 4 (-75%)	2.0 / 2 (101%)
1st Jul '23	UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Magomedov	10.5	-7.7	-73%	0.3 / 2.5 (12%)	-5.5 / 5.5 (-100%)	-2.5 / 2.5 (-100%)
24th Jun '23	UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Topuria	9	0.0	0%	5.0 / 4 (126%)	-3.5 / 3.5 (-100%)	-1.5 / 1.5 (-100%)
17th Jun '23	UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Cannonier	14	6.4	45%	0.2 / 3 (5%)	1.7 / 6.5 (26%)	4.5 / 4.5 (100%)
16th Jun '23	PFL 5: Regular Season	4.5	-0.0	-0%	-1.0 / 1 (-100%)	-1.5 / 1.5 (-100%)	2.5 / 2 (125%)
16th Jun '23	Bellator 297	2.7	3.1	113%	1.5 / 1 (155%)	-0.2 / 0.2 (-100%)	1.7 / 1.5 (114%)
10th Jun '23	UFC 289	15.75	7.4	47%	2.5 / 3 (84%)	4.9 / 12.75 (38%)
3rd Jun '23	UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs. Albazi	5.5	-3.6	-65%	-3.6 / 5.5 (-65%)

Winning Events: 25 (61%)
Losing Events: 16 (39%)

Average Staked Per Event: 8.92 units
Most Staked On One Event: 25.50 units
Best Event: 9.77 units
Worst Event: -10.71 units
Average Event: 0.70 units

Max Win Streak: Events: 7, Units: 29.18
Max Losing Streak: Events: 6, Units: -15.62

El Topo: Year on Year Profit

Year	Bet	Won	ROI	Straight Won / Bet (ROI%)	Prop Won / Bet (ROI%)	Parlay Won / Bet (ROI%)	Events Won / Lost (%)	Profit Per Event
2023	365.68	28.9	8%	9.4 / 140 (7%)		22.7 / 50 (45%)	25 / 16 (61%)	0.70

El Topo: Yearly Straight Pick Stats

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El Topo: Profit / Loss by Organization

Organization	Bet	Won	ROI	Straight Picks	Props	Parlays
UFC	302.53	3.9	1%	1.4 / 103 (1%)	-7.4 / 165.03 (-4%)	9.8 / 34.5 (29%)
Bellator	12.2	8.2	67%	-1.0 / 3.5 (-27%)	1.1 / 1.7 (62%)	8.1 / 7 (116%)
PFL	22.45	5.9	26%	2.3 / 7.5 (30%)	0.6 / 7.95 (8%)	3.1 / 7 (44%)
Other	28.5	10.9	38%	6.7 / 26 (26%)	2.5 / 1 (250%)	1.7 / 1.5 (112%)

El Topo: Straight Pick Stats

Big favourite means >65% win chance according to bookies. Big underdog is <35% chance.

	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Units Bet	Units Profit	Profit per Pick	ROI
Big Favorites	1 (1%)	1	100 %	5.00	2.65	2.65	53%
Slight Favorites	24 (31%)	14	58 %	54.50	3.60	0.15	7%
Slight Underdogs	31 (40%)	13	42 %	50.50	-3.87	-0.12	-8%
Big Underdogs	21 (27%)	6	29 %	30.00	7.05	0.34	24%

Betting Stats By Card Position

	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Units Bet	Units Profit	Profit per Pick	ROI
Main Event	8 (10%)	5	63 %	18.00	10.31	1.29	57%
Co-Main Event	13 (17%)	5	38 %	23.00	-3.09	-0.24	-13%
Position 3-5	20 (26%)	5	25 %	40.00	-16.55	-0.83	-41%
6+ (Undercard)	36 (47%)	19	53 %	59.00	18.76	0.52	32%

El Topo: Profit by Weight Class

	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Units Bet	Units Profit	Profit per Pick	ROI
Heavyweight	4 (5%)	1	25 %	5.50	-1.90	-0.48	-35%
Light Heavy	1 (1%)	1	100 %	5.00	3.70	3.70	74%
Middleweight	10 (13%)	3	30 %	16.00	-6.33	-0.63	-40%
Welterweight	11 (14%)	5	45 %	17.50	3.96	0.36	23%
Lightweight	11 (14%)	4	36 %	18.00	-1.67	-0.15	-9%
Featherweight	6 (8%)	4	67 %	14.00	10.76	1.79	77%
Bantamweight	6 (8%)	2	33 %	9.00	-1.73	-0.29	-19%
Flyweight	5 (6%)	1	20 %	9.00	-5.85	-1.17	-65%

Women's Fights	23 (30%)	13	57 %	46.00	8.47	0.37	18%
Featherweight	1 (1%)		0 %	1.00	-1.00	-1.00	-100%
Bantamweight	4 (5%)	3	75 %	8.50	6.42	1.61	76%
Flyweight	8 (10%)	5	63 %	18.00	3.78	0.47	21%
Strawweight	10 (13%)	5	50 %	18.50	-0.74	-0.07	-4%

Props & Parlay Section Stats (Individual sections of this handicapper's parlays)

Straight picks within parlays

	Picks	Correct	% Correct
Big Favorites	16 (84%)	14	88 %
Slight Favorites	3 (16%)	3	100 %
Slight Underdogs	0 (0%)	0	nan %
Big Underdogs	0 (0%)	0	nan %
	19	17	89 %

Props bets and props within parlays

	Picks	Correct	% Correct
>65% chance	20 (14%)	17	85 %
50-65%	33 (23%)	21	64 %
35-50%	32 (23%)	10	31 %
<35% chance	57 (40%)	11	19 %
	142	59	42 %

Prop Bets and Props within Parlays: Bet Types

Prop Type	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Avg Odds	Longest Odds	Shortest Odds	1U Bet (ROI %)
Over (e.g. 1.5 / 2.5 rnds)	5 (4%)	3	60 %	1.74	2.50	1.41	-0.0 (-0%)
Under (e.g. 1.5 / 2.5 rnds)	32 (23%)	24	75 %	1.62	3.20	1.22	8.0 (25%)
Goes to Decision	2 (1%)	1	50 %	1.71	2.30	1.36	-0.6 (-32%)
Does not go to Decision	5 (4%)	4	80 %	1.42	1.50	1.36	0.7 (14%)
Fight Doesn't Start Round X	3 (2%)	1	33 %	1.84	1.91	1.74	-1.3 (-42%)
X Wins by KO	9 (6%)	1	11 %	3.25	15.00	2.00	-6.8 (-76%)
X Wins by Sub	13 (9%)	3	23 %	4.14	14.00	2.37	-1.4 (-11%)
X Wins by Decision	9 (6%)	4	44 %	3.93	15.00	2.30	5.9 (66%)
X Wins Inside Distance	14 (10%)	4	29 %	2.52	6.00	1.77	-6.1 (-44%)
X Wins in Round X	24 (17%)	7	29 %	4.63	34.00	1.57	23.2 (96%)
Others	26 (18%)	7	27 %	2.78	101.01	1.57	-5.5 (-21%)
	142	59	42 %	2.48			16.0 (11%)

* 1U Bet (ROI %): Many of the picks will have been part of a parlay, however, as a rough guide to value / profitability, this figure supposes that the handicapper put a 1U bet on each of the picks individually, showing the profit / loss they would have made and the ROI %.

Tail El Topo's bets

If you had tailed this handicapper's bets since they started logging their picks with us, it would have affected your betting bank balance as follows...

This is more accurate than simply X units total profit. Under that more basic system, 1 unit is equal to the same amount of theoretical dollars, whether it was the last event or 10 events ago. However, if a handicapper has 10 events profit in a row, their betting bank balance will be significantly larger for the 10th event and 1 unit will equal a LOT more than it did 10 events ago.

Date	Event	Bet	Won	ROI	Fee	1 unit =	Start	End
3rd Jun	UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs. Albazi	5.5	-3.6	-65%		$10.00	$1,000.00	$964.09
10th Jun	UFC 289	15.75	7.4	47%		$9.64	$964.09	$1,035.57
16th Jun	Bellator 297	2.7	3.1	113%		$10.36	$1,035.57	$1,067.23
16th Jun	PFL 5: Regular Season	4.5	-0.0	-0%		$10.67	$1,067.23	$1,067.23
17th Jun	UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Cannonier	14	6.4	45%		$10.67	$1,067.23	$1,135.11
24th Jun	UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Topuria	9	0.0	0%		$11.35	$1,135.11	$1,135.45
1st Jul	UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Magomedov	10.5	-7.7	-73%		$11.35	$1,135.45	$1,048.02
15th Jul	UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Bueno Silva	12	-1.2	-10%		$10.48	$1,048.02	$1,035.15
22nd Jul	UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura	17	7.5	44%		$10.35	$1,035.15	$1,112.79
29th Jul	UFC 291	9.25	9.8	106%		$11.13	$1,112.79	$1,221.51
4th Aug	PFL 7: 2023 Playoffs	6.5	0.5	8%		$12.22	$1,221.51	$1,227.51
5th Aug	UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Font	5.7	2.6	46%		$12.28	$1,227.51	$1,259.73
8th Aug	Contender Series 2023: Week 1	1.5	1.0	70%		$12.60	$1,259.73	$1,272.94
11th Aug	Bellator 298	4.5	0.2	5%		$12.73	$1,272.94	$1,275.79
12th Aug	UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos Anjos	7.5	7.5	100%		$12.76	$1,275.79	$1,371.76
15th Aug	Contender Series 2023: Week 2	2	-2.0	-100%		$13.72	$1,371.76	$1,344.33
18th Aug	PFL 8: 2023 Playoffs	3.25	3.9	119%		$13.44	$1,344.33	$1,396.27
19th Aug	UFC 292	16.25	-3.3	-20%		$13.96	$1,396.27	$1,350.39
22nd Aug	Contender Series 2023: Week 3	4	2.1	52%		$13.50	$1,350.39	$1,378.46
23rd Aug	PFL 9: 2023 Playoffs	2.2	-2.2	-100%		$13.78	$1,378.46	$1,348.13
26th Aug	UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Jung	19.25	-4.2	-22%		$13.48	$1,348.13	$1,291.32
29th Aug	Contender Series 2023: Week 4	4	-0.8	-20%		$12.91	$1,291.32	$1,280.75
1st Sep	CFFC 123	1.5	-1.5	-100%		$12.81	$1,280.75	$1,261.54
2nd Sep	UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Spivac	13.25	-1.0	-7%		$12.62	$1,261.54	$1,249.03
9th Sep	UFC 293	19.5	-5.9	-30%		$12.49	$1,249.03	$1,175.33
12th Sep	Contender Series 2023: Week 6	3	0.5	17%		$11.75	$1,175.33	$1,181.21
16th Sep	UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Shevchenko II	15.5	1.1	7%		$11.81	$1,181.21	$1,193.65
22nd Sep	LFA 168	1.5	2.3	150%		$11.94	$1,193.65	$1,220.51
23rd Sep	UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gamrot	9.5	8.9	93%		$12.21	$1,220.51	$1,328.75
3rd Oct	Contender Series 2023: Week 9	1.5	3.2	210%		$13.29	$1,328.75	$1,370.61
7th Oct	UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Green	20.5	-7.9	-38%		$13.71	$1,370.61	$1,262.72
7th Oct	Bellator 300	5	4.9	98%		$12.63	$1,262.72	$1,324.71
14th Oct	UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Barboza	12	-6.0	-50%		$13.25	$1,324.71	$1,245.23
21st Oct	UFC 294	23.33	-7.7	-33%		$12.45	$1,245.23	$1,148.73
27th Oct	Invicta FC 54	7	0.7	9%		$11.49	$1,148.73	$1,156.20
4th Nov	UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Almeida	7.75	6.8	88%		$11.56	$1,156.20	$1,234.82
11th Nov	KSW 88	2.5	5.5	220%		$12.35	$1,234.82	$1,302.73
11th Nov	UFC 295	25.5	-10.7	-42%		$13.03	$1,302.73	$1,163.26
18th Nov	UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig	3	3.0	101%		$11.63	$1,163.26	$1,198.61
24th Nov	PFL 10: 2023 PFL World Championship	6	3.8	63%		$11.99	$1,198.61	$1,243.70
2nd Dec	UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan	11	2.2	20%		$12.44	$1,243.70	$1,270.66

ROI % from starting bank balance: 27.07% (including fees)
*Note - we don't store historical fee amounts, so we assume the fees are the same as the handicapper charges now.

El Topo: Last 20 Wins / Losses (Straight Picks)

Last 20 Wins

	Date	Straight Pick	Opponent	Odds	Bet	Result
1.	Dec '23	Jared Gooden	Wellington Turman	2.67	1.5	Sub, R2 (1:11)
2.	Dec '23	Miesha Tate	Julia Avila	2.37	2	Sub, R3 (1:15)
3.	Nov '23	Jesus Pinedo	Gabriel Alves Braga	1.95	5	TKO, R3 (0:58)
4.	Nov '23	Patryk Kaczmarczyk	Daniel Rutkowski	3.20	2.5	U Decision (3 rounds)
5.	Nov '23	Nicolas Dalby	Gabriel Bonfim	5.50	1.5	TKO, R2 (4:33)
6.	Nov '23	Angela Hill	Denise Gomes	2.10	3	U Decision (3 rounds)
7.	Oct '23	Kristina Williams	Dee Begley	1.53	5	Split Decision (3 rounds)
8.	Oct '23	Mike Breeden	Anshul Jubli	3.50	2	TKO, R3 (3:0)
9.	Nov '23	Alex Pereira	Jiri Prochazka	1.74	5	TKO, R2 (4:8)
10.	Oct '23	Bill Algeo	Alexander Hernandez	2.10	2	U Decision (3 rounds)
11.	Oct '23	Karolina Kowalkiewicz	Diana Belbita	1.71	2	U Decision (3 rounds)
12.	Oct '23	Mauricio Ruffy	Raimond Magomedaliev	3.10	1.5	TKO, R3 (4:45)
13.	Sep '23	Cheyanne Bowers	Aline Pereira	2.50	1.5	U Decision (3 rounds)
14.	Sep '23	Montserrat Rendon	Tamires Vidal	2.95	1.5	Split Decision (3 rounds)
15.	Sep '23	Tracy Cortez	Jasmine Jasudavicius	1.83	2	U Decision (3 rounds)
16.	Sep '23	Manon Fiorot	Rose Namajunas	1.56	2.5	U Decision (3 rounds)
17.	Aug '23	Oban Elliott	Kaik Brito	2.65	1	Split Decision (3 rounds)
18.	Aug '23	Zachary Reese	Eli Aronov	1.71	2	Sub, R1 (1:14)
19.	Aug '23	Sean O'Malley	Aljamain Sterling	3.15	1.5	TKO, R2 (0:51)
20.	Aug '23	Tom Nolan	Bogdan Grad	1.70	1.5	TKO, R1 (1:23)

Last 20 Losses

	Date	Straight Pick	Opponent	Odds	Bet	Result	Hedge?
1.	Dec '23	Kelvin Gastelum	Sean Brady	2.10	2	Sub, R3 (1:43)	No
2.	Nov '23	Matt Frevola	Benoit Saint-Denis	2.95	1.5	TKO, R1 (1:31)	No
3.	Nov '23	Mackenzie Dern	Jessica Andrade	1.57	4	TKO, R2 (3:15)	No
4.	Oct '23	Karolina Wojcik	Danni McCormack	2.73	2	Sub, R4 (1:22)	No
5.	Oct '23	Jinh Yu Frey	Viktoriya Dudakova	5.10	1	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
6.	Oct '23	Abu Azaitar	Sedriques Dumas	3.05	1	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
7.	Oct '23	Tim Elliott	Muhammad Mokaev	4.50	1	Sub, R3 (3:3)	No
8.	Oct '23	Andre Petroski	Michel Pereira	2.70	1.5	TKO, R1 (1:6)	No
9.	Oct '23	Jennifer Maia	Viviane Araujo	1.69	3	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
10.	Oct '23	Kamaru Usman	Khamzat Chimaev	3.60	2.5	Split Decision (3 rounds)	No
11.	Oct '23	Abdul Razak Alhassan	Joe Pyfer	4.75	1	Sub, R2 (2:5)	No
12.	Oct '23	Alex Morono	Joaquin Buckley	2.65	2	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
13.	Sep '23	Kevin Holland	Jack Della Maddalena	2.20	2	Split Decision (3 rounds)	No
14.	Sep '23	Kasey Tanner	Jean Matsumoto	1.88	2	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
15.	Sep '23	John Makdessi	Jamie Mullarkey	3.20	1.5	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
16.	Sep '23	Kiefer Crosbie	Kevin Jousset	2.35	1.5	Sub, R1 (4:49)	No
17.	Sep '23	Brandon Evans	Robert Varricchio	2.55	1.5	TKO, R1 (4:22)	No
18.	Sep '23	Thiago Moises	Benoit Saint-Denis	2.40	2	TKO, R2 (4:44)	No
19.	Sep '23	Joselyne Edwards	Nora Cornolle	1.92	1.5	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
20.	Sep '23	Sergey Spivak	Ciryl Gane	2.63	2	TKO, R2 (3:44)	No

* Hedge indicates that this handicapper also had a WINNING bet on the opponent. For example, they may have bet A to win straight up but with a hedge on the other fighter winning by decision.

El Topo: Progress Chart

Chart

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