MMA Handicapper Directory
Total MMA Handicappers: 6727
Profitable MMA Handicappers: 2448

MMA Handicapper Stats: threading water

threading water (kioshima)

MMA MHandicapper - threading water

MMA Betting Stats Summary

Overall Stats		Straight Fight Picks		Props		Parlays
Right	162 (49%)	Right	152 (49%)	Right	6 (32%)	Right	4 (80%)
Wrong	172 (51%)	Wrong	158 (51%)	Wrong	13 (68%)	Wrong	1 (20%)
Avg Odds	2.06	Avg Odds	2.01	Avg Odds	3.15	Avg Odds	2.46
Units Bet	2,124.9	Units Bet	2,043.5	Units Bet	66.4	Units Bet	15.0
Avg Bet	6.36	Avg Bet	6.59	Avg Bet	3.49	Avg Bet	3.00
Units Profit	32.15	Units Profit	20.22	Units Profit	5.05	Units Profit	6.89
ROI %	2%	ROI %	1%	ROI %	8%	ROI %	46%

threading water: Event by Event Predictions

The straight picks, parlays and props sections display Winnings / Bets (ROI%)

Date	Event	Bet	Won	ROI	Straight Picks	Props	Parlays
17th Aug '24	UFC 305	61.5	5.0	8%	3.2 / 52.5 (6%)	4.8 / 6 (80%)	-3.0 / 3 (-100%)
13th Apr '24	UFC 300	22	-22.0	-100%	-22.0 / 22 (-100%)
30th Mar '24	UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot	82.5	-8.7	-11%	-8.7 / 82.5 (-11%)
23rd Mar '24	UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas	51	25.0	49%	25.0 / 51 (49%)
16th Mar '24	UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Tybura	75	-1.0	-1%	-6.3 / 35 (-18%)	5.3 / 40 (13%)
9th Mar '24	UFC 299	75	31.6	42%	31.6 / 75 (42%)
17th Feb '24	UFC 298	22	20.6	94%	20.6 / 22 (94%)
10th Feb '24	UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer	29	13.4	46%	13.4 / 29 (46%)
3rd Feb '24	UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Imavov	43	-13.4	-31%	-13.4 / 43 (-31%)
20th Jan '24	UFC 297	90	-21.2	-24%	-21.2 / 90 (-24%)
13th Jan '24	UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker	64	-0.6	-1%	-0.6 / 64 (-1%)
14th Oct '23	UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Barboza	74	-21.8	-29%	-21.8 / 74 (-29%)
7th Oct '23	UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Green	30.85	-7.3	-24%	-7.3 / 30.85 (-24%)
3rd Oct '23	Contender Series 2023: Week 9	2.2	2.2	99%	2.2 / 2.2 (99%)
23rd Sep '23	UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gamrot	9.95	-1.3	-13%	-1.3 / 9.95 (-13%)
16th Sep '23	UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Shevchenko II	29	-5.1	-18%	-5.1 / 29 (-18%)
12th Sep '23	Contender Series 2023: Week 6	3.78	1.0	26%	1.0 / 3.78 (26%)
9th Sep '23	UFC 293	20	0.5	3%	0.5 / 20 (3%)
2nd Sep '23	UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Spivac	15.3	-6.3	-42%	-6.3 / 15.3 (-42%)
26th Aug '23	UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Jung	134.85	60.2	45%	60.2 / 134.85 (45%)
19th Aug '23	UFC 292	243.94	-32.7	-13%	-32.7 / 243.94 (-13%)
12th Aug '23	UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos Anjos	46.59	-6.4	-14%	-6.4 / 46.59 (-14%)
5th Aug '23	UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Font	71.8	-4.2	-6%	-4.2 / 71.8 (-6%)
4th Aug '23	PFL 7: 2023 Playoffs	10	-10.0	-100%	-10.0 / 10 (-100%)
30th Jul '23	Bellator vs Rizin 2	6.2	-6.2	-100%	-6.2 / 6.2 (-100%)
29th Jul '23	UFC 291	56.7	0.1	0%	0.1 / 56.7 (0%)
29th Jul '23	Oktagon 45	0.5	0.2	42%	0.2 / 0.5 (42%)
10th Jun '23	UFC 289	110	36.0	33%	36.0 / 110 (33%)
3rd Jun '23	UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs. Albazi	129	50.7	39%	50.7 / 129 (39%)
20th May '23	UFC Fight Night: Hill vs. Dern	130.45	-15.8	-12%	-15.8 / 130.45 (-12%)
13th May '23	UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida	75	-35.2	-47%	-35.2 / 75 (-47%)
6th May '23	UFC 288	144	2.1	1%	7.1 / 139 (5%)	-5.0 / 5 (-100%)
29th Apr '23	UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Simón	41.9	-4.0	-10%	-4.2 / 38 (-11%)	0.2 / 3.9 (5%)
22nd Apr '23	Bellator 295	30	24.3	81%	24.3 / 30 (81%)
22nd Apr '23	UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. Blaydes	59.57	-23.5	-39%	-25.2 / 40.57 (-62%)	0.3 / 15 (2%)	1.4 / 4 (36%)
21st Apr '23	Bellator 294	22.5	9.2	41%	2.4 / 15 (16%)	-0.5 / 0.5 (-100%)	7.3 / 7 (104%)
15th Apr '23	UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen	6.33	2.1	33%	2.1 / 6.33 (33%)
14th Apr '23	PFL 3: 2023	9.5	-5.3	-55%	-6.4 / 8.5 (-75%)		1.1 / 1 (114%)

Winning Events: 17 (45%)
Losing Events: 21 (55%)

Average Staked Per Event: 56.02 units
Most Staked On One Event: 243.94 units
Best Event: 60.23 units
Worst Event: -35.15 units
Average Event: 0.85 units

Max Win Streak: Events: 4, Units: 87.01
Max Losing Streak: Events: 5, Units: -64.22

threading water: Year on Year Profit

Year	Bet	Won	ROI	Straight Won / Bet (ROI%)	Prop Won / Bet (ROI%)	Parlay Won / Bet (ROI%)	Events Won / Lost (%)	Profit Per Event
2024	615	28.7	5%	21.6 / 566 (4%)		-3.0 / 3 (-100%)	5 / 6 (45%)	2.61
2023	1513.91	3.5	0%	-1.4 / 1477.51 (-0%)		9.9 / 12 (82%)	12 / 15 (44%)	0.13

threading water: Yearly Straight Pick Stats

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threading water: Profit / Loss by Organization

Organization	Bet	Won	ROI	Straight Picks	Props	Parlays
UFC	2044.23	16.7	1%	12.7 / 1967.33 (1%)	5.6 / 69.9 (8%)	-1.6 / 7 (-22%)
Bellator	58.7	27.3	47%	20.5 / 51.2 (40%)	-0.5 / 0.5 (-100%)	7.3 / 7 (104%)
PFL	19.5	-15.3	-78%	-16.4 / 18.5 (-89%)		1.1 / 1 (114%)
Other	6.48	3.4	52%	3.4 / 6.48 (52%)

threading water: Straight Pick Stats

Big favourite means >65% win chance according to bookies. Big underdog is <35% chance.

	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Units Bet	Units Profit	Profit per Pick	ROI
Big Favorites	94 (25%)	63	67 %	598.04	-31.33	-0.33	-5%
Slight Favorites	109 (29%)	56	51 %	700.07	-105.14	-0.96	-15%
Slight Underdogs	113 (30%)	58	51 %	550.03	132.99	1.18	24%
Big Underdogs	65 (17%)	16	25 %	195.37	23.70	0.36	12%

Betting Stats By Card Position

	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Units Bet	Units Profit	Profit per Pick	ROI
Main Event	45 (12%)	18	40 %	258.91	-51.68	-1.15	-20%
Co-Main Event	40 (10%)	27	68 %	235.70	40.78	1.02	17%
Position 3-5	100 (26%)	59	59 %	551.24	139.28	1.39	25%
6+ (Undercard)	196 (51%)	89	45 %	997.66	-108.16	-0.55	-11%

threading water: Profit by Weight Class

	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Units Bet	Units Profit	Profit per Pick	ROI
Heavyweight	22 (6%)	10	45 %	66.45	-8.34	-0.38	-13%
Light Heavy	21 (6%)	13	62 %	97.72	2.46	0.12	3%
Middleweight	34 (9%)	13	38 %	160.09	-21.03	-0.62	-13%
Welterweight	50 (13%)	23	46 %	264.80	12.78	0.26	5%
Lightweight	41 (11%)	14	34 %	190.68	6.87	0.17	4%
Featherweight	47 (12%)	24	51 %	244.63	-23.25	-0.49	-10%
Bantamweight	60 (16%)	32	53 %	390.16	-20.66	-0.34	-5%
Flyweight	21 (6%)	10	48 %	129.75	-35.32	-1.68	-27%

Women's Fights	85 (22%)	54	64 %	499.23	106.70	1.26	21%
Featherweight	3 (1%)	1	33 %	10.66	-5.85	-1.95	-55%
Bantamweight	15 (4%)	7	47 %	78.45	-3.46	-0.23	-4%
Flyweight	31 (8%)	21	68 %	214.02	66.42	2.14	31%
Strawweight	36 (9%)	25	69 %	196.10	49.57	1.38	25%

Props & Parlay Section Stats (Individual sections of this handicapper's parlays)

Straight picks within parlays

	Picks	Correct	% Correct
Big Favorites	9 (69%)	8	89 %
Slight Favorites	3 (23%)	1	33 %
Slight Underdogs	1 (8%)	1	100 %
Big Underdogs	0 (0%)	0	nan %
	13	10	77 %

Props bets and props within parlays

	Picks	Correct	% Correct
>65% chance	0 (0%)	0	nan %
50-65%	5 (24%)	2	40 %
35-50%	6 (29%)	2	33 %
<35% chance	10 (48%)	2	20 %
	21	6	29 %

Prop Bets and Props within Parlays: Bet Types

Prop Type	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Avg Odds	Longest Odds	Shortest Odds	1U Bet (ROI %)
Over (e.g. 1.5 / 2.5 rnds)	2 (10%)	0	0 %	2.42	2.60	2.26	-2.0 (-100%)
Under (e.g. 1.5 / 2.5 rnds)	1 (5%)	1	100 %	1.80	1.80	1.80	0.8 (80%)
X Wins by KO	2 (10%)	0	0 %	11.00	11.00	11.00	-2.0 (-100%)
X Wins by Decision	2 (10%)	0	0 %	4.25	10.00	2.70	-2.0 (-100%)
X Wins Inside Distance	4 (19%)	1	25 %	2.43	3.75	1.83	-1.2 (-29%)
X Wins in Round X	3 (14%)	0	0 %	24.32	36.00	18.00	-3.0 (-100%)
Others	7 (33%)	4	57 %	2.39	4.10	1.80	6.5 (92%)
	21	6	29 %	3.12			-2.9 (-14%)

* 1U Bet (ROI %): Many of the picks will have been part of a parlay, however, as a rough guide to value / profitability, this figure supposes that the handicapper put a 1U bet on each of the picks individually, showing the profit / loss they would have made and the ROI %.

Tail threading water's bets

If you had tailed this handicapper's bets since they started logging their picks with us, it would have affected your betting bank balance as follows...

This is more accurate than simply X units total profit. Under that more basic system, 1 unit is equal to the same amount of theoretical dollars, whether it was the last event or 10 events ago. However, if a handicapper has 10 events profit in a row, their betting bank balance will be significantly larger for the 10th event and 1 unit will equal a LOT more than it did 10 events ago.

Date	Event	Bet	Won	ROI	Fee	1 unit =	Start	End
14th Apr	PFL 3: 2023	9.5	-5.3	-55%		$10.00	$1,000.00	$947.45
15th Apr	UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen	6.33	2.1	33%		$9.47	$947.45	$967.06
21st Apr	Bellator 294	22.5	9.2	41%		$9.67	$967.06	$1,056.44
22nd Apr	UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. Blaydes	59.57	-23.5	-39%		$10.56	$1,056.44	$808.32
22nd Apr	Bellator 295	30	24.3	81%		$8.08	$808.32	$1,004.52
29th Apr	UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Simón	41.9	-4.0	-10%	$2	$10.05	$1,004.52	$962.34
6th May	UFC 288	144	2.1	1%	$2	$9.62	$962.34	$980.40
13th May	UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida	75	-35.2	-47%	$2	$9.80	$980.40	$633.78
20th May	UFC Fight Night: Hill vs. Dern	130.45	-15.8	-12%	$2	$6.34	$633.78	$531.68
3rd Jun	UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs. Albazi	129	50.7	39%	$2	$5.32	$531.68	$799.09
10th Jun	UFC 289	110	36.0	33%	$2	$7.99	$799.09	$1,084.70
29th Jul	Oktagon 45	0.5	0.2	42%	$2	$10.85	$1,084.70	$1,085.00
29th Jul	UFC 291	56.7	0.1	0%	$2	$10.85	$1,085.00	$1,084.48
30th Jul	Bellator vs Rizin 2	6.2	-6.2	-100%	$2	$10.84	$1,084.48	$1,015.25
4th Aug	PFL 7: 2023 Playoffs	10	-10.0	-100%	$2	$10.15	$1,015.25	$911.72
5th Aug	UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Font	71.8	-4.2	-6%	$2	$9.12	$911.72	$870.99
12th Aug	UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos Anjos	46.59	-6.4	-14%	$2	$8.71	$870.99	$813.50
19th Aug	UFC 292	243.94	-32.7	-13%	$2	$8.14	$813.50	$545.09
26th Aug	UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Jung	134.85	60.2	45%	$2	$5.45	$545.09	$871.38
2nd Sep	UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Spivac	15.3	-6.3	-42%	$2	$8.71	$871.38	$814.04
9th Sep	UFC 293	20	0.5	3%	$2	$8.14	$814.04	$816.12
12th Sep	Contender Series 2023: Week 6	3.78	1.0	26%	$2	$8.16	$816.12	$822.28
16th Sep	UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Shevchenko II	29	-5.1	-18%	$2	$8.22	$822.28	$777.93
23rd Sep	UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gamrot	9.95	-1.3	-13%	$2	$7.78	$777.93	$765.89
3rd Oct	Contender Series 2023: Week 9	2.2	2.2	99%	$2	$7.66	$765.89	$780.54
7th Oct	UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Green	30.85	-7.3	-24%	$2	$7.81	$780.54	$721.40
14th Oct	UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Barboza	74	-21.8	-29%	$2	$7.21	$721.40	$562.49
13th Jan	UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker	64	-0.6	-1%	$2	$5.62	$562.49	$557.03
20th Jan	UFC 297	90	-21.2	-24%	$2	$5.57	$557.03	$437.13
3rd Feb	UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Imavov	43	-13.4	-31%	$2	$4.37	$437.13	$376.71
10th Feb	UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer	29	13.4	46%	$2	$3.77	$376.71	$425.05
17th Feb	UFC 298	22	20.6	94%	$2	$4.25	$425.05	$510.77
9th Mar	UFC 299	75	31.6	42%	$2	$5.11	$510.77	$670.06
16th Mar	UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Tybura	75	-1.0	-1%	$2	$6.70	$670.06	$661.23
23rd Mar	UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas	51	25.0	49%	$2	$6.61	$661.23	$824.41
30th Mar	UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot	82.5	-8.7	-11%	$2	$8.24	$824.41	$750.96
13th Apr	UFC 300	22	-22.0	-100%	$2	$7.51	$750.96	$583.75
17th Aug	UFC 305	61.5	5.0	8%	$2	$5.84	$583.75	$610.70

ROI % from starting bank balance: -38.93% (including fees)
*Note - we don't store historical fee amounts, so we assume the fees are the same as the handicapper charges now.

threading water: Last 20 Wins / Losses (Straight Picks)

Last 20 Wins

	Date	Straight Pick	Opponent	Odds	Bet	Result
1.	Aug '24	Jesus Santos Aguilar	Stewart Nicoll	2.82	3	Sub, R1 (2:39)
2.	Aug '24	Kenan Song	Rick Glenn	1.50	6	U Decision (3 rounds)
3.	Aug '24	Ricardo Ramos	Joshua Culibao	2.15	3	Split Decision (3 rounds)
4.	Aug '24	Valter Walker	Junior Tafa	2.10	3	Sub, R1 (4:56)
5.	Aug '24	Daniel Hooker	Mateusz Gamrot	3.95	1.5	Split Decision (3 rounds)
6.	Aug '24	Dricus Du Plessis	Israel Adesanya	1.95	10	Sub, R4 (3:38)
7.	Mar '24	Caolan Loughran	Angel Pacheco	1.36	11	U Decision (3 rounds)
8.	Mar '24	Jacob Malkoun	Andre Petroski	1.56	6	TKO, R2 (0:39)
9.	Mar '24	Ibo Aslan	Anton Turkalj	2.00	6	TKO, R3 (1:32)
10.	Mar '24	Virna Jandiroba	Lupita Godinez	2.80	3	U Decision (3 rounds)
11.	Mar '24	Chris Weidman	Bruno Silva	3.50	6	U Decision (3 rounds)
12.	Mar '24	Manon Fiorot	Erin Blanchfield	2.70	3	U Decision (5 rounds)
13.	Mar '24	Andre Lima	Igor da Silva	1.67	3
14.	Mar '24	Dariya Zheleznyakova	Montserrat Rendon	1.48	6	U Decision (3 rounds)
15.	Mar '24	Jarno Errens	Steven Nguyen	2.50	3	U Decision (3 rounds)
16.	Mar '24	Julian Erosa	Ricardo Ramos	2.50	3	Sub, R1 (2:15)
17.	Mar '24	Fernando Padilla	Luis Pajuelo	1.63	3	Sub, R1 (2:45)
18.	Mar '24	Youssef Zalal	Billy Quarantillo	2.30	3	Sub, R2 (1:50)
19.	Mar '24	Payton Talbott	Cameron Saaiman	1.91	9	TKO, R2 (0:21)
20.	Mar '24	Edmen Shahbazyan	AJ Dobson	1.50	3	TKO, R1 (4:33)

Last 20 Losses

	Date	Straight Pick	Opponent	Odds	Bet	Result	Hedge?
1.	Aug '24	Alex Reyes	Tom Nolan	8.50	1.5	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
2.	Aug '24	Herbert Burns	Jack Jenkins	6.50	1.5	TKO, R3 (0:48)	No
3.	Aug '24	Luana Santos	Casey O'Neill	1.68	10	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
4.	Aug '24	Tai Tuivasa	Jairzinho Rozenstruik	3.05	3	Split Decision (3 rounds)	No
5.	Aug '24	Steve Erceg	Kai Kara-France	1.59	10	TKO, R1 (4:4)	No
6.	Mar '24	Connor Matthews	Dennis Buzukja	2.10	6	TKO, R3 (0:22)	No
7.	Mar '24	Herbert Burns	Julio Arce	5.00	1.5	TKO, R2 (2:0)	No
8.	Mar '24	Jamall Emmers	Nate Landwehr	1.56	9	TKO, R1 (4:43)	No
9.	Mar '24	Rhys McKee	Chidi Njokuani	2.70	3	Split Decision (3 rounds)	No
10.	Mar '24	Bill Algeo	Kyle Nelson	1.56	11	TKO, R1 (4:0)	No
11.	Mar '24	Sedriques Dumas	Nursulton Ruziboev	3.40	6	TKO, R1 (3:18)	No
12.	Mar '24	Vicente Luque	Joaquin Buckley	1.91	11	TKO, R2 (3:17)	No
13.	Mar '24	Mohammed Usman	Michael Parkin	2.25	3	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
14.	Mar '24	Cody Gibson	Miles Johns	2.25	3	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
15.	Mar '24	Kurt Holobaugh	Trey Ogden	2.30	3	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
16.	Mar '24	Mitch Ramirez	Thiago Moises	3.95	3	TKO, R3 (0:15)	No
17.	Mar '24	Ode Osbourne	Jafel Filho	2.33	3	Sub, R1 (4:27)	No
18.	Mar '24	Josiane Nunes	Chelsea Chandler	1.71	5	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
19.	Mar '24	Isaac Dulgarian	Christian Rodriguez	1.57	11	Split Decision (3 rounds)	No
20.	Mar '24	Tai Tuivasa	Marcin Tybura	1.91	3	Sub, R1 (4:8)	No

* Hedge indicates that this handicapper also had a WINNING bet on the opponent. For example, they may have bet A to win straight up but with a hedge on the other fighter winning by decision.

threading water: Progress Chart

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