MMA Handicapper Stats: The Simulation |
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The Simulation: Event by Event Predictions |
The straight picks, parlays and props sections display Winnings / Bets (ROI%)
Winning Events: 7 (44%) Losing Events: 9 (56%)
Average Staked Per Event: 28.66 units Most Staked On One Event: 54.50 units Best Event: 52.00 units Worst Event: -22.80 units Average Event: -0.77 units
Max Win Streak: Events: 2, Units: 52.00 Max Losing Streak: Events: 2, Units: -34.00 |
The Simulation: Year on Year Profit |
Year |
Bet |
Won |
ROI |
Straight
Won / Bet (ROI%) |
Prop
Won / Bet (ROI%) |
Parlay
Won / Bet (ROI%) |
Events
Won / Lost
(%) |
Profit
Per Event |
2023 |
158.1 |
-28.4 |
-18% |
-29.5 / 109.5 (-27%) |
|
|
2 / 3 (40%) |
-5.68 |
2022 |
300.4 |
16.1 |
5% |
-27.4 / 150 (-18%) |
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|
5 / 6 (45%) |
1.46 |
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The Simulation: Yearly Straight Pick Stats |
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The Simulation: Profit / Loss by Organization |
Organization |
Bet |
Won |
ROI |
Straight Picks |
Props |
Parlays |
UFC |
372 |
9.7 |
3% |
-36.5 / 201.5 (-18%) |
46.2 / 170.5 (27%) |
|
Bellator |
18.5 |
-1.5 |
-8% |
6.4 / 6 (106%) |
-7.9 / 12.5 (-63%) |
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PFL |
52 |
-4.4 |
-9% |
-10.8 / 36 (-30%) |
6.4 / 16 (40%) |
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Other |
16 |
-16.0 |
-100% |
-16.0 / 16 (-100%) |
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The Simulation: Straight Pick Stats |
Big favourite means >65% win chance according to bookies. Big underdog is <35% chance.
|
Picks |
Correct |
% Correct |
Units Bet |
Units Profit |
Profit per Pick |
ROI |
Big Favorites |
16 (27%) |
9 |
56 % |
87.50 |
-18.10 |
-1.13 |
-21% |
Slight Favorites |
21 (35%) |
11 |
52 % |
89.50 |
-14.62 |
-0.70 |
-16% |
Slight Underdogs |
17 (28%) |
6 |
35 % |
63.00 |
-16.28 |
-0.96 |
-26% |
Big Underdogs |
6 (10%) |
1 |
17 % |
19.50 |
-7.90 |
-1.32 |
-41% |
Betting Stats By Card Position
|
Picks |
Correct |
% Correct |
Units Bet |
Units Profit |
Profit per Pick |
ROI |
Main Event |
6 (10%) |
3 |
50 % |
20.50 |
-3.30 |
-0.55 |
-16% |
Co-Main Event |
4 (7%) |
1 |
25 % |
25.00 |
-19.00 |
-4.75 |
-76% |
Position 3-5 |
17 (28%) |
8 |
47 % |
72.50 |
-16.43 |
-0.97 |
-23% |
6+ (Undercard) |
33 (55%) |
15 |
45 % |
141.50 |
-18.17 |
-0.55 |
-13% |
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The Simulation: Profit by Weight Class |
|
Picks |
Correct |
% Correct |
Units Bet |
Units Profit |
Profit per Pick |
ROI |
Heavyweight |
6 (10%) |
3 |
50 % |
27.50 |
-9.38 |
-1.56 |
-34% |
Light Heavy |
4 (7%) |
|
0 % |
16.50 |
-16.50 |
-4.13 |
-100% |
Middleweight |
6 (10%) |
3 |
50 % |
17.00 |
0.68 |
0.11 |
4% |
Welterweight |
9 (15%) |
2 |
22 % |
45.00 |
-32.52 |
-3.61 |
-72% |
Lightweight |
5 (8%) |
4 |
80 % |
21.00 |
12.16 |
2.43 |
58% |
Featherweight |
3 (5%) |
3 |
100 % |
15.00 |
9.55 |
3.18 |
64% |
Bantamweight |
7 (12%) |
2 |
29 % |
31.00 |
-15.61 |
-2.23 |
-50% |
Flyweight |
6 (10%) |
2 |
33 % |
25.00 |
-8.80 |
-1.47 |
-35% |
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Women's Fights |
14 (23%) |
8 |
57 % |
61.50 |
3.52 |
0.25 |
6% |
Featherweight |
1 (2%) |
1 |
100 % |
5.00 |
1.10 |
1.10 |
22% |
Bantamweight |
4 (7%) |
2 |
50 % |
15.00 |
-4.77 |
-1.19 |
-32% |
Flyweight |
4 (7%) |
2 |
50 % |
18.00 |
1.90 |
0.48 |
11% |
Strawweight |
5 (8%) |
3 |
60 % |
23.50 |
5.29 |
1.06 |
23% |
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Props & Parlay Section Stats (Individual sections of this handicapper's parlays) |
Straight picks within parlays
|
Picks |
Correct |
% Correct |
Big Favorites |
0 (nan%) |
0 |
nan % |
Slight Favorites |
0 (nan%) |
0 |
nan % |
Slight Underdogs |
0 (nan%) |
0 |
nan % |
Big Underdogs |
0 (nan%) |
0 |
nan % |
|
0 |
0 |
nan % |
Props bets and props within parlays
|
Picks |
Correct |
% Correct |
>65% chance |
3 (4%) |
2 |
67 % |
50-65% |
11 (14%) |
7 |
64 % |
35-50% |
22 (28%) |
8 |
36 % |
<35% chance |
44 (55%) |
8 |
18 % |
|
80 |
25 |
31 % |
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Prop Bets and Props within Parlays: Bet Types |
* 1U Bet (ROI %): Many of the picks will have been part of a parlay, however, as a rough guide to value / profitability, this figure supposes that the handicapper put a 1U bet on each of the picks individually, showing the profit / loss they would have made and the ROI %. |
Tail The Simulation's bets |
If you had tailed this handicapper's bets since they started logging their picks with us, it would have affected your betting bank balance as follows...
This is more accurate than simply X units total profit. Under that more basic system, 1 unit is equal to the same amount of theoretical dollars, whether it was the last event or 10 events ago. However, if a handicapper has 10 events profit in a row, their betting bank balance will be significantly larger for the 10th event and 1 unit will equal a LOT more than it did 10 events ago.
Date |
Event |
Bet |
Won |
ROI |
Fee |
1 unit = |
Start |
End |
6th Aug |
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Hill |
54.5 |
-22.8 |
-42% |
|
$10.00 |
$1,000.00 |
$772.00 |
13th Aug |
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Cruz |
32.5 |
52.0 |
160% |
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$7.72 |
$772.00 |
$1,173.44 |
16th Aug |
DWCS 2022: Week 4 |
5 |
-5.0 |
-100% |
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$11.73 |
$1,173.44 |
$1,114.77 |
20th Aug |
UFC 278 |
35.2 |
11.6 |
33% |
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$11.15 |
$1,114.77 |
$1,244.08 |
23rd Aug |
DWCS 2022: Week 5 |
7 |
-7.0 |
-100% |
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$12.44 |
$1,244.08 |
$1,157.00 |
10th Sep |
UFC 279 |
18.5 |
-13.7 |
-74% |
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$11.57 |
$1,157.00 |
$998.84 |
17th Sep |
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Song |
28.5 |
1.5 |
5% |
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$9.99 |
$998.84 |
$1,013.82 |
1st Oct |
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan |
36.5 |
0.0 |
0% |
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$10.14 |
$1,013.82 |
$1,014.27 |
29th Oct |
Bellator 287 |
18.5 |
-1.5 |
-8% |
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$10.14 |
$1,014.27 |
$998.55 |
29th Oct |
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Allen |
34.7 |
6.4 |
18% |
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$9.99 |
$998.55 |
$1,062.26 |
5th Nov |
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Lemos |
29.5 |
-5.4 |
-18% |
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$10.62 |
$1,062.26 |
$1,004.79 |
29th Jul |
Cage Warriors 158 |
4 |
-4.0 |
-100% |
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$10.05 |
$1,004.79 |
$964.60 |
29th Jul |
UFC 291 |
48.1 |
1.8 |
4% |
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$9.65 |
$964.60 |
$981.87 |
4th Aug |
PFL 7: 2023 Playoffs |
26 |
-12.3 |
-47% |
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$9.82 |
$981.87 |
$861.59 |
5th Aug |
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Font |
54 |
-21.8 |
-40% |
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$8.62 |
$861.59 |
$674.19 |
18th Aug |
PFL 8: 2023 Playoffs |
26 |
7.8 |
30% |
|
$6.74 |
$674.19 |
$726.85 |
ROI % from starting bank balance: -27.32% (including fees)
*Note - we don't store historical fee amounts, so we assume the fees are the same as the handicapper charges now. |
The Simulation: Last 20 Wins / Losses (Straight Picks) |
Last 20 Wins
Last 20 Losses
|
Date |
Straight Pick |
Opponent |
Odds |
Bet |
Result |
Hedge? |
|
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1. |
Aug '23 |
Satoshi Ishii |
Danilo Marques |
1.72 |
5 |
U Decision (3 rounds) |
No |
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2. |
Aug '23 |
Kennedy Nzechukwu |
Dustin Jacoby |
1.67 |
4 |
TKO, R1 (1:22) |
No |
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3. |
Aug '23 |
Aleksa Camur |
Tanner Boser |
2.30 |
5 |
U Decision (3 rounds) |
No |
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4. |
Aug '23 |
Raoni Barcelos |
Kyler Phillips |
2.70 |
5 |
U Decision (3 rounds) |
No |
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5. |
Aug '23 |
Jeremiah Wells |
Carlston Harris |
1.87 |
5 |
Sub, R3 (1:50) |
No |
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6. |
Aug '23 |
Jake Hadley |
Cody Durden |
1.54 |
5 |
U Decision (3 rounds) |
No |
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7. |
Aug '23 |
Ode Osbourne |
Assu Almabaev |
2.63 |
4 |
Sub, R2 (3:11) |
No |
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8. |
Aug '23 |
Keoni Diggs |
Elvin Espinoza |
2.25 |
5 |
U Decision (3 rounds) |
No |
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9. |
Aug '23 |
Desiree Yanez |
Lisa Mauldin |
1.57 |
5 |
Sub, R1 (3:8) |
No |
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10. |
Aug '23 |
Carson Hardman |
Anthony Ivy |
3.10 |
3 |
Sub, R1 (2:34) |
No |
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11. |
Aug '23 |
Ky Bennett |
Chelsea Hackett |
2.48 |
3 |
Sub, R2 (4:42) |
No |
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12. |
Jul '23 |
Michele Martignoni |
Shaj Haque |
1.76 |
4 |
U Decision (5 rounds) |
No |
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13. |
Jul '23 |
Trevin Giles |
Gabriel Bonfim |
3.80 |
3 |
Sub, R1 (1:13) |
No |
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14. |
Jul '23 |
Marcos Rogerio de Lima |
Derrick Lewis |
1.50 |
3.5 |
TKO, R1 (0:33) |
No |
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15. |
Jul '23 |
Claudio Ribeiro |
Roman Kopylov |
2.87 |
3 |
TKO, R2 (0:33) |
No |
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16. |
Nov '22 |
Marina Alcalde Rodriguez |
Amanda Lemos |
1.44 |
4 |
TKO, R3 (0:54) |
No |
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17. |
Nov '22 |
Daniel Rodriguez |
Neil Magny |
2.10 |
5 |
Sub, R3 (3:33) |
No |
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18. |
Nov '22 |
Nathan Maness |
Tagir Ulanbekov |
2.75 |
2 |
Sub, R1 (2:11) |
No |
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19. |
Oct '22 |
Dustin Jacoby |
Khalil Rountree |
1.57 |
5 |
Split Decision (3 rounds) |
No |
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20. |
Oct '22 |
Josh Fremd |
Tresean Gore |
1.53 |
3 |
Sub, R2 (0:49) |
No |
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* Hedge indicates that this handicapper also had a WINNING bet on the opponent. For example, they may have bet A to win straight up but with a hedge on the other fighter winning by decision. |
The Simulation: Progress Chart |
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