MMA Handicapper Directory
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MMA Handicapper Stats: Just Dave

Just Dave (Just Dave)

MMA Betting Stats Summary

Overall Stats		Straight Fight Picks		Props		Parlays
Right	236 (56%)	Right	206 (64%)	Right	10 (71%)	Right	20 (24%)
Wrong	183 (44%)	Wrong	115 (36%)	Wrong	4 (29%)	Wrong	64 (76%)
Avg Odds	1.72	Avg Odds	1.51	Avg Odds	1.50	Avg Odds	3.82
Units Bet	1,039.3	Units Bet	463.3	Units Bet	41.0	Units Bet	535.0
Avg Bet	2.48	Avg Bet	1.44	Avg Bet	2.93	Avg Bet	6.37
Units Profit	-160.44	Units Profit	-17.80	Units Profit	-3.57	Units Profit	-139.07
ROI %	-15%	ROI %	-4%	ROI %	-9%	ROI %	-26%

Just Dave: Event by Event Predictions

The straight picks, parlays and props sections display Winnings / Bets (ROI%)

Date	Event	Bet	Won	ROI	Straight Picks	Props	Parlays
8th Jul '23	UFC 290	8	-1.6	-20%	-1.6 / 8 (-20%)
1st Jul '23	UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Magomedov	20	-16.0	-80%	-5.0 / 9 (-56%)		-11.0 / 11 (-100%)
10th Jun '23	UFC 289	17	-3.8	-23%	4.2 / 9 (46%)		-8.0 / 8 (-100%)
20th May '23	UFC Fight Night: Hill vs. Dern	20	11.8	59%	11.8 / 20 (59%)
13th May '23	UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida	9	-4.8	-53%	-4.8 / 9 (-53%)
29th Apr '23	UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Simón	17	15.5	91%	3.3 / 6 (55%)		12.2 / 11 (111%)
22nd Apr '23	UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. Blaydes	6	3.4	56%	3.4 / 6 (56%)
15th Apr '23	UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen	27	-18.4	-68%	-4.4 / 13 (-34%)		-14.0 / 14 (-100%)
8th Apr '23	UFC 287	27.28	-8.0	-29%	-5.0 / 24.28 (-20%)		-3.0 / 3 (-100%)
25th Mar '23	UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Sandhagen	16	28.3	177%	-3.5 / 13 (-27%)		31.8 / 3 (1,060%)
18th Mar '23	UFC 286	15	-4.4	-30%	-1.4 / 12 (-12%)		-3.0 / 3 (-100%)
11th Mar '23	UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili	15	-4.5	-30%	-1.5 / 12 (-12%)		-3.0 / 3 (-100%)
4th Mar '23	UFC 285	80	-6.9	-9%	2.6 / 11 (23%)		-9.5 / 69 (-14%)
25th Feb '23	UFC Fight Night: Muniz vs. Allen	71	-28.3	-40%	0.7 / 8 (9%)		-28.9 / 63 (-46%)
18th Feb '23	UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Blanchfield	33	-7.2	-22%	0.5 / 5 (9%)		-7.7 / 28 (-27%)
11th Feb '23	UFC 284	48	2.9	6%	-0.2 / 9 (-2%)		3.1 / 39 (8%)
4th Feb '23	UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spivak	21	-3.4	-16%			-3.4 / 21 (-16%)
4th Feb '23	Bellator 290	8	5.0	63%	1.0 / 3 (34%)		4.0 / 5 (80%)
21st Jan '23	UFC 283	34	-24.0	-71%	-2.0 / 12 (-17%)		-22.0 / 22 (-100%)
14th Jan '23	UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Imavov	18	-8.8	-49%	-0.5 / 6 (-9%)		-8.3 / 12 (-69%)
17th Dec '22	UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Strickland	18	-8.0	-45%	-3.0 / 13 (-23%)		-5.0 / 5 (-100%)
10th Dec '22	UFC 282	14	1.7	12%	5.0 / 6 (83%)	1.8 / 3 (59%)	-5.0 / 5 (-100%)
3rd Dec '22	UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland	20	-8.3	-41%	2.7 / 9 (30%)		-11.0 / 11 (-100%)
19th Nov '22	UFC Fight Night: Nzechukwu vs. Cutelaba	21	11.2	53%	2.5 / 10 (25%)		8.7 / 11 (79%)
5th Nov '22	UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Lemos	38	-23.6	-62%	3.4 / 11 (31%)		-27.0 / 27 (-100%)
29th Oct '22	UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Allen	12	-2.2	-19%	0.8 / 9 (9%)		-3.0 / 3 (-100%)
22nd Oct '22	UFC 280	20	47.5	238%	-1.5 / 10 (-15%)		49.0 / 10 (490%)
15th Oct '22	UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Araujo	19.8	20.7	105%	-1.4 / 8.8 (-15%)		22.1 / 11 (201%)
1st Oct '22	Bellator 286	5	1.7	35%	1.7 / 5 (35%)
1st Oct '22	UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan	13	-7.6	-58%	-2.6 / 8 (-32%)		-5.0 / 5 (-100%)
17th Sep '22	UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Song	6	1.8	30%	1.8 / 6 (30%)
10th Sep '22	UFC 279	24	-14.9	-62%	-3.9 / 13 (-30%)		-11.0 / 11 (-100%)
3rd Sep '22	UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Tuivasa	12.5	-0.7	-5%	2.3 / 9.5 (24%)		-3.0 / 3 (-100%)
23rd Aug '22	DWCS 2022: Week 5	25	-18.0	-72%	-7.0 / 14 (-50%)		-11.0 / 11 (-100%)
20th Aug '22	UFC 278	54	-31.4	-58%	0.8 / 8 (11%)		-32.3 / 46 (-70%)
20th Aug '22	PFL 2022 #9	15	3.7	25%	0.4 / 4 (10%)		3.4 / 11 (31%)
13th Aug '22	UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Cruz	51.75	-40.5	-78%	-11.5 / 22.75 (-51%)		-29.0 / 29 (-100%)
12th Aug '22	Bellator 284	3	3.4	112%			3.4 / 3 (112%)
9th Aug '22	DWCS 2022: Week 3	3	2.2	75%			2.2 / 3 (75%)
6th Aug '22	UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Hill	43	-20.3	-47%	-7.8 / 21 (-37%)	-2.5 / 12 (-21%)	-10.0 / 10 (-100%)
30th Jul '22	UFC 277	58	-12.7	-22%	0.5 / 38 (1%)	-8.2 / 15 (-55%)	-5.0 / 5 (-100%)
23rd Jul '22	UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall	37	3.8	10%	1.8 / 32 (6%)	2.0 / 5 (40%)
9th Jul '22	UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Fiziev	9	-0.7	-7%	-0.7 / 9 (-7%)
2nd Jul '22	UFC 276	7	3.7	53%	0.4 / 1 (36%)	3.4 / 6 (56%)

Winning Events: 17 (39%)
Losing Events: 27 (61%)

Average Staked Per Event: 23.62 units
Most Staked On One Event: 80.00 units
Best Event: 47.50 units
Worst Event: -40.50 units
Average Event: -3.65 units

Max Win Streak: Events: 3, Units: 69.99
Max Losing Streak: Events: 5, Units: -64.98

Just Dave: Year on Year Profit

Year	Bet	Won	ROI	Straight Won / Bet (ROI%)	Prop Won / Bet (ROI%)	Parlay Won / Bet (ROI%)	Events Won / Lost (%)	Profit Per Event
2023	510.28	-73.2	-14%	-2.7 / 195.28 (-1%)		-70.6 / 315 (-22%)	6 / 14 (30%)	-3.66
2022	529.05	-87.2	-16%	-15.1 / 268.05 (-6%)		-68.5 / 220 (-31%)	11 / 13 (46%)	-3.63

Just Dave: Yearly Straight Pick Stats

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Just Dave: Profit / Loss by Organization

Organization	Bet	Won	ROI	Straight Picks	Props	Parlays
UFC	980.33	-158.6	-16%	-13.9 / 437.33 (-3%)	-3.6 / 41 (-9%)	-141.1 / 502 (-28%)
Bellator	16	10.1	63%	2.8 / 8 (35%)		7.4 / 8 (92%)
PFL	15	3.7	25%	0.4 / 4 (10%)		3.4 / 11 (31%)
Other	28	-15.8	-56%	-7.0 / 14 (-50%)		-8.8 / 14 (-63%)

Just Dave: Straight Pick Stats

Big favourite means >65% win chance according to bookies. Big underdog is <35% chance.

	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Units Bet	Units Profit	Profit per Pick	ROI
Big Favorites	188 (59%)	137	73 %	281.43	-21.25	-0.11	-8%
Slight Favorites	78 (24%)	44	56 %	106.40	-7.46	-0.10	-7%
Slight Underdogs	45 (14%)	23	51 %	65.50	15.03	0.33	23%
Big Underdogs	10 (3%)	2	20 %	10.00	-4.12	-0.41	-41%

Betting Stats By Card Position

	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Units Bet	Units Profit	Profit per Pick	ROI
Main Event	25 (8%)	12	48 %	32.70	-9.51	-0.38	-29%
Co-Main Event	27 (8%)	17	63 %	31.50	-5.83	-0.22	-19%
Position 3-5	80 (25%)	55	69 %	137.05	-11.38	-0.14	-8%
6+ (Undercard)	189 (59%)	122	65 %	262.08	8.91	0.05	3%

Just Dave: Profit by Weight Class

	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Units Bet	Units Profit	Profit per Pick	ROI
Heavyweight	22 (7%)	14	64 %	44.00	-17.82	-0.81	-41%
Light Heavy	15 (5%)	9	60 %	20.00	2.66	0.18	13%
Middleweight	36 (11%)	19	53 %	43.48	-7.74	-0.21	-18%
Welterweight	47 (15%)	34	72 %	67.00	12.63	0.27	19%
Lightweight	46 (14%)	27	59 %	74.00	-2.48	-0.05	-3%
Featherweight	30 (9%)	19	63 %	39.50	-3.12	-0.10	-8%
Bantamweight	39 (12%)	28	72 %	56.70	-0.13	-0.00	-0%
Flyweight	24 (7%)	19	79 %	33.50	5.88	0.25	18%

Women's Fights	62 (19%)	37	60 %	85.15	-7.68	-0.12	-9%
Featherweight	2 (1%)	1	50 %	2.00	-0.82	-0.41	-41%
Bantamweight	16 (5%)	9	56 %	20.00	-3.50	-0.22	-18%
Flyweight	22 (7%)	14	64 %	30.20	-2.42	-0.11	-8%
Strawweight	22 (7%)	13	59 %	32.95	-0.94	-0.04	-3%

Props & Parlay Section Stats (Individual sections of this handicapper's parlays)

Straight picks within parlays

	Picks	Correct	% Correct
Big Favorites	180 (77%)	137	76 %
Slight Favorites	43 (18%)	15	35 %
Slight Underdogs	11 (5%)	3	27 %
Big Underdogs	0 (0%)	0	nan %
	234	155	66 %

Props bets and props within parlays

	Picks	Correct	% Correct
>65% chance	168 (76%)	124	74 %
50-65%	41 (19%)	30	73 %
35-50%	11 (5%)	4	36 %
<35% chance	1 (0%)	0	0 %
	221	158	71 %

Prop Bets and Props within Parlays: Bet Types

Prop Type	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Avg Odds	Longest Odds	Shortest Odds	1U Bet (ROI %)
Over (e.g. 1.5 / 2.5 rnds)	140 (63%)	108	77 %	1.36	1.74	1.15	9.2 (7%)
Under (e.g. 1.5 / 2.5 rnds)	14 (6%)	9	64 %	1.40	1.83	1.14	-2.0 (-14%)
Goes to Decision	1 (0%)	1	100 %	1.38	1.38	1.38	0.4 (38%)
Does not go to Decision	11 (5%)	5	45 %	1.33	1.65	1.18	-4.7 (-43%)
Fight Starts Round X	12 (5%)	10	83 %	1.38	1.87	1.14	2.0 (17%)
X Wins by Decision	3 (1%)	2	67 %	2.07	2.62	1.83	0.7 (25%)
X Wins Inside Distance	1 (0%)	1	100 %	1.74	1.74	1.74	0.7 (74%)
Others	39 (18%)	22	56 %	1.74	3.50	1.31	-0.8 (-2%)
	221	158	71 %	1.42			5.5 (3%)

* 1U Bet (ROI %): Many of the picks will have been part of a parlay, however, as a rough guide to value / profitability, this figure supposes that the handicapper put a 1U bet on each of the picks individually, showing the profit / loss they would have made and the ROI %.

Tail Just Dave's bets

If you had tailed this handicapper's bets since they started logging their picks with us, it would have affected your betting bank balance as follows...

This is more accurate than simply X units total profit. Under that more basic system, 1 unit is equal to the same amount of theoretical dollars, whether it was the last event or 10 events ago. However, if a handicapper has 10 events profit in a row, their betting bank balance will be significantly larger for the 10th event and 1 unit will equal a LOT more than it did 10 events ago.

Date	Event	Bet	Won	ROI	Fee	1 unit =	Start	End
2nd Jul	UFC 276	7	3.7	53%		$10.00	$1,000.00	$1,037.19
9th Jul	UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Fiziev	9	-0.7	-7%		$10.37	$1,037.19	$1,030.28
23rd Jul	UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall	37	3.8	10%		$10.30	$1,030.28	$1,069.69
30th Jul	UFC 277	58	-12.7	-22%		$10.70	$1,069.69	$933.94
6th Aug	UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Hill	43	-20.3	-47%		$9.34	$933.94	$744.35
9th Aug	DWCS 2022: Week 3	3	2.2	75%		$7.44	$744.35	$761.06
12th Aug	Bellator 284	3	3.4	112%		$7.61	$761.06	$786.60
13th Aug	UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Cruz	51.75	-40.5	-78%		$7.87	$786.60	$468.02
20th Aug	PFL 2022 #9	15	3.7	25%		$4.68	$468.02	$485.57
20th Aug	UFC 278	54	-31.4	-58%		$4.86	$485.57	$333.06
23rd Aug	DWCS 2022: Week 5	25	-18.0	-72%		$3.33	$333.06	$273.11
3rd Sep	UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Tuivasa	12.5	-0.7	-5%		$2.73	$273.11	$271.25
10th Sep	UFC 279	24	-14.9	-62%		$2.71	$271.25	$230.86
17th Sep	UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Song	6	1.8	30%		$2.31	$230.86	$235.01
1st Oct	UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan	13	-7.6	-58%		$2.35	$235.01	$217.16
1st Oct	Bellator 286	5	1.7	35%		$2.17	$217.16	$220.95
15th Oct	UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Araujo	19.8	20.7	105%		$2.21	$220.95	$266.78
22nd Oct	UFC 280	20	47.5	238%		$2.67	$266.78	$393.51
29th Oct	UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Allen	12	-2.2	-19%		$3.94	$393.51	$384.75
5th Nov	UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Lemos	38	-23.6	-62%		$3.85	$384.75	$294.12
19th Nov	UFC Fight Night: Nzechukwu vs. Cutelaba	21	11.2	53%		$2.94	$294.12	$326.95
3rd Dec	UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland	20	-8.3	-41%		$3.27	$326.95	$299.96
10th Dec	UFC 282	14	1.7	12%		$3.00	$299.96	$305.21
17th Dec	UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Strickland	18	-8.0	-45%		$3.05	$305.21	$280.65
14th Jan	UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Imavov	18	-8.8	-49%		$2.81	$280.65	$256.05
21st Jan	UFC 283	34	-24.0	-71%		$2.56	$256.05	$194.50
4th Feb	Bellator 290	8	5.0	63%		$1.94	$194.50	$204.31
4th Feb	UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spivak	21	-3.4	-16%		$2.04	$204.31	$197.44
11th Feb	UFC 284	48	2.9	6%		$1.97	$197.44	$203.11
18th Feb	UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Blanchfield	33	-7.2	-22%		$2.03	$203.11	$188.46
25th Feb	UFC Fight Night: Muniz vs. Allen	71	-28.3	-40%		$1.88	$188.46	$135.20
4th Mar	UFC 285	80	-6.9	-9%		$1.35	$135.20	$125.86
11th Mar	UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili	15	-4.5	-30%		$1.26	$125.86	$120.20
18th Mar	UFC 286	15	-4.4	-30%		$1.20	$120.20	$114.86
25th Mar	UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Sandhagen	16	28.3	177%		$1.15	$114.86	$147.38
8th Apr	UFC 287	27.28	-8.0	-29%		$1.47	$147.38	$135.65
15th Apr	UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen	27	-18.4	-68%		$1.36	$135.65	$110.73
22nd Apr	UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. Blaydes	6	3.4	56%		$1.11	$110.73	$114.46
29th Apr	UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Simón	17	15.5	91%		$1.14	$114.46	$132.24
13th May	UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida	9	-4.8	-53%		$1.32	$132.24	$125.90
20th May	UFC Fight Night: Hill vs. Dern	20	11.8	59%		$1.26	$125.90	$140.70
10th Jun	UFC 289	17	-3.8	-23%		$1.41	$140.70	$135.28
1st Jul	UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Magomedov	20	-16.0	-80%		$1.35	$135.28	$113.60
8th Jul	UFC 290	8	-1.6	-20%		$1.14	$113.60	$111.77

ROI % from starting bank balance: -88.82% (including fees)
*Note - we don't store historical fee amounts, so we assume the fees are the same as the handicapper charges now.

Just Dave: Last 20 Wins / Losses (Straight Picks)

Last 20 Wins

	Date	Straight Pick	Opponent	Odds	Bet	Result
1.	Jul '23	Jesus Santos Aguilar	Shannon Ross	1.67	1	TKO, R1 (0:17)
2.	Jul '23	Cameron Saaiman	Terrence Mitchell	1.18	1	TKO, R1 (3:10)
3.	Jul '23	Vitor Petrino	Marcin Prachnio	1.40	1	Sub, R3 (3:42)
4.	Jul '23	Tatsuro Taira	Edgar Chairez	1.10	1	U Decision (3 rounds)
5.	Jul '23	Bo Nickal	Valentine Woodburn	1.04	1	TKO, R1 (0:38)
6.	Jul '23	Joanderson Brito	Westin Wilson	1.07	1	TKO, R1 (2:54)
7.	Jul '23	Rinat Fakhretdinov	Kevin Lee	1.50	1	Sub, R1 (0:55)
8.	Jul '23	Michael Morales	Max Griffin	1.40	1	U Decision (3 rounds)
9.	Jun '23	Aiemann Zahabi	Qileng Aori	2.00	1	TKO, R1 (1:4)
10.	Jun '23	Jasmine Jasudavicius	Miranda Maverick	3.00	1	U Decision (3 rounds)
11.	Jun '23	Marc-Andre Barriault	Eryk Anders	1.72	1	U Decision (3 rounds)
12.	Jun '23	Dan Ige	Nate Landwehr	1.40	1	U Decision (3 rounds)
13.	Jun '23	Mike Malott	Adam Fugitt	1.48	1	Sub, R2 (1:6)
14.	Jun '23	Charles Oliveira	Beneil Dariush	2.25	1	TKO, R1 (4:10)
15.	Jun '23	Amanda Nunes	Irene Aldana	1.30	1	U Decision (5 rounds)
16.	May '23	Themba Gorimbo	Takashi Sato	1.80	1	U Decision (3 rounds)
17.	May '23	Natalia Cristina da Silva	Victoria Leonardo	1.10	1	TKO, R1 (2:58)
18.	May '23	Rodrigo Nascimento Ferreira	Ilir Latifi	1.53	1	Split Decision (3 rounds)
19.	May '23	Gilbert Urbina	Orion Cosce	2.10	10	TKO, R2 (2:55)
20.	May '23	Karolina Kowalkiewicz	Vanessa Demopoulos	1.74	1	U Decision (3 rounds)

Last 20 Losses

	Date	Straight Pick	Opponent	Odds	Bet	Result	Hedge?
1.	Jul '23	Yazmin Jauregui	Denise Gomes	1.25	1	TKO, R1 (0:20)	No
2.	Jul '23	Jalin Turner	Daniel Hooker	1.36	1	Split Decision (3 rounds)	No
3.	Jul '23	Robert Whittaker	Dricus Du Plessis	1.25	1	TKO, R2 (2:23)	No
4.	Jul '23	Abusupiyan Magomedov	Sean Strickland	2.10	1	TKO, R2 (4:20)	No
5.	Jul '23	Ivana Petrovic	Luana Carolina	1.53	1	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
6.	Jul '23	Guram Kutateladze	Elves Brenner	1.17	1	TKO, R3 (3:17)	No
7.	Jul '23	Yana Santos	Karol Rosa	2.50	1	Split Decision (3 rounds)	No
8.	Jul '23	Brunno Ferreira	Nursulton Ruziboev	1.45	1	TKO, R1 (1:17)	No
9.	Jul '23	Ismael Bonfim	Benoit Saint-Denis	1.36	1	Sub, R1 (4:48)	No
10.	Jun '23	Maria Oliveira	Diana Belbita	1.91	1	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
11.	Jun '23	Blake Bilder	Kyle Nelson	1.40	1	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
12.	May '23	Hayisaer Maheshate	Viacheslav Borshchev	2.40	1	TKO, R2 (2:37)	No
13.	May '23	Michael Johnson	Carlos Diego Ferreira	2.30	1	TKO, R2 (1:50)	No
14.	May '23	Angela Hill	Mackenzie Dern	2.50	1	U Decision (5 rounds)	No
15.	May '23	Anthony Smith	Johnny Walker	2.00	1	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
16.	May '23	Gabriel Green	Bryan Battle	1.72	1	TKO, R1 (0:14)	No
17.	May '23	Ji Yeon Kim	Mandy Bohm	1.44	1	Split Decision (3 rounds)	No
18.	May '23	Cody Stamann	Douglas Silva de Andrade	1.63	1	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
19.	May '23	Court McGee	Matt Brown	1.45	1	TKO, R1 (4:9)	No
20.	May '23	Tim Means	Alex Morono	2.87	1	Sub, R2 (2:9)	No

* Hedge indicates that this handicapper also had a WINNING bet on the opponent. For example, they may have bet A to win straight up but with a hedge on the other fighter winning by decision.

Just Dave: Progress Chart

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