MMA Handicapper Stats: These are not my picks on Patreon, nerds |
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These are not my picks on Patreon, nerds: Event by Event Predictions |
The straight picks, parlays and props sections display Winnings / Bets (ROI%)
Winning Events: 13 (57%)
Losing Events: 10 (43%)
Average Staked Per Event: 36.96 units
Most Staked On One Event: 70.00 units
Best Event: 38.92 units
Worst Event: -36.08 units
Average Event: 3.19 units
Max Win Streak: Events: 2, Units: 43.12
Max Losing Streak: Events: 2, Units: -36.08 |
These are not my picks on Patreon, nerds: Year on Year Profit |
| Year |
Bet |
Won |
ROI |
Straight
Won / Bet (ROI%) |
Prop
Won / Bet (ROI%) |
Parlay
Won / Bet (ROI%) |
Events
Won / Lost
(%) |
Profit
Per Event |
| 2022 |
850 |
73.3 |
9% |
73.3 / 850 (9%) |
|
|
13 / 10 (57%) |
3.19 |
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These are not my picks on Patreon, nerds: Yearly Straight Pick Stats |
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These are not my picks on Patreon, nerds: Profit / Loss by Organization |
| Organization |
Bet |
Won |
ROI |
Straight Picks |
Props |
Parlays |
|
UFC |
405 |
92.3 |
23% |
92.3 / 405 (23%) |
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Bellator |
165 |
8.3 |
5% |
8.3 / 165 (5%) |
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PFL |
135 |
-54.7 |
-41% |
-54.7 / 135 (-41%) |
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| Other |
145 |
27.4 |
19% |
27.4 / 145 (19%) |
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These are not my picks on Patreon, nerds: Straight Pick Stats |
Big favourite means >65% win chance according to bookies. Big underdog is <35% chance.
| |
Picks |
Correct |
% Correct |
Units Bet |
Units Profit |
Profit per Pick |
ROI |
| Big Favorites |
59 (35%) |
46 |
78 % |
295.00 |
5.59 |
0.09 |
2% |
| Slight Favorites |
44 (26%) |
31 |
70 % |
220.00 |
40.64 |
0.92 |
18% |
| Slight Underdogs |
40 (24%) |
17 |
43 % |
200.00 |
-1.80 |
-0.05 |
-1% |
| Big Underdogs |
27 (16%) |
9 |
33 % |
135.00 |
28.85 |
1.07 |
21% |
Betting Stats By Card Position
| |
Picks |
Correct |
% Correct |
Units Bet |
Units Profit |
Profit per Pick |
ROI |
| Main Event |
20 (12%) |
10 |
50 % |
100.00 |
-14.79 |
-0.74 |
-15% |
| Co-Main Event |
14 (8%) |
9 |
64 % |
70.00 |
5.52 |
0.39 |
8% |
| Position 3-5 |
48 (28%) |
31 |
65 % |
240.00 |
42.23 |
0.88 |
18% |
| 6+ (Undercard) |
88 (52%) |
53 |
60 % |
440.00 |
40.32 |
0.46 |
9% |
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These are not my picks on Patreon, nerds: Profit by Weight Class |
| |
Picks |
Correct |
% Correct |
Units Bet |
Units Profit |
Profit per Pick |
ROI |
| Heavyweight |
9 (5%) |
5 |
56 % |
45.00 |
2.90 |
0.32 |
6% |
| Light Heavy |
9 (5%) |
3 |
33 % |
45.00 |
-18.33 |
-2.04 |
-41% |
| Middleweight |
23 (14%) |
14 |
61 % |
115.00 |
-5.56 |
-0.24 |
-5% |
| Welterweight |
26 (15%) |
19 |
73 % |
130.00 |
47.69 |
1.83 |
37% |
| Lightweight |
30 (18%) |
17 |
57 % |
150.00 |
-23.80 |
-0.79 |
-16% |
| Featherweight |
22 (13%) |
13 |
59 % |
110.00 |
32.19 |
1.46 |
29% |
| Bantamweight |
15 (9%) |
10 |
67 % |
75.00 |
-5.22 |
-0.35 |
-7% |
| Flyweight |
6 (4%) |
2 |
33 % |
30.00 |
-9.12 |
-1.52 |
-30% |
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| Women's Fights |
30 (18%) |
20 |
67 % |
150.00 |
52.54 |
1.75 |
35% |
| Featherweight |
2 (1%) |
1 |
50 % |
10.00 |
-3.13 |
-1.57 |
-31% |
| Bantamweight |
5 (3%) |
4 |
80 % |
25.00 |
15.88 |
3.18 |
64% |
| Flyweight |
11 (6%) |
5 |
45 % |
55.00 |
-9.28 |
-0.84 |
-17% |
| Strawweight |
12 (7%) |
10 |
83 % |
60.00 |
49.06 |
4.09 |
82% |
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Props & Parlay Section Stats (Individual sections of this handicapper's parlays) |
Straight picks within parlays
| |
Picks |
Correct |
% Correct |
| Big Favorites |
0 (nan%) |
0 |
nan % |
| Slight Favorites |
0 (nan%) |
0 |
nan % |
| Slight Underdogs |
0 (nan%) |
0 |
nan % |
| Big Underdogs |
0 (nan%) |
0 |
nan % |
|
0 |
0 |
nan % |
Props bets and props within parlays
| |
Picks |
Correct |
% Correct |
| >65% chance |
0 (nan%) |
0 |
nan % |
| 50-65% |
0 (nan%) |
0 |
nan % |
| 35-50% |
0 (nan%) |
0 |
nan % |
| <35% chance |
0 (nan%) |
0 |
nan % |
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0 |
0 |
nan % |
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Prop Bets and Props within Parlays: Bet Types |
| Prop Type |
Picks |
Correct |
% Correct |
Avg
Odds |
Longest
Odds |
Shortest
Odds |
1U Bet (ROI %) |
|
0 |
0 |
nan % |
nan |
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0.0 (nan%) |
* 1U Bet (ROI %): Many of the picks will have been part of a parlay, however, as a rough guide to value / profitability, this figure supposes that the handicapper put a 1U bet on each of the picks individually, showing the profit / loss they would have made and the ROI %. |
Tail These are not my picks on Patreon, nerds's bets |
If you had tailed this handicapper's bets since they started logging their picks with us, it would have affected your betting bank balance as follows...
This is more accurate than simply X units total profit. Under that more basic system, 1 unit is equal to the same amount of theoretical dollars, whether it was the last event or 10 events ago. However, if a handicapper has 10 events profit in a row, their betting bank balance will be significantly larger for the 10th event and 1 unit will equal a LOT more than it did 10 events ago.
| Date |
Event |
Bet |
Won |
ROI |
Fee |
1 unit = |
Start |
End |
| 11th May |
Invicta 47 |
25 |
15.7 |
63% |
$70 |
$10.00 |
$1,000.00 |
$1,087.35 |
| 13th May |
Bellator 281 |
40 |
-7.2 |
-18% |
$70 |
$10.87 |
$1,087.35 |
$939.49 |
| 14th May |
UFC Fight Night: Błachowicz vs. Rakić |
35 |
21.2 |
60% |
$70 |
$9.39 |
$939.49 |
$1,068.20 |
| 21st May |
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Vieira |
40 |
22.0 |
55% |
$70 |
$10.68 |
$1,068.20 |
$1,232.93 |
| 28th May |
Cage Warriors 138 |
10 |
-0.7 |
-7% |
$70 |
$12.33 |
$1,232.93 |
$1,154.89 |
| 3rd Jun |
LFA 133 |
20 |
24.7 |
123% |
$70 |
$11.55 |
$1,154.89 |
$1,369.58 |
| 4th Jun |
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Rozenstruik |
45 |
-20.8 |
-46% |
$70 |
$13.70 |
$1,369.58 |
$1,015.19 |
| 5th Jun |
Fury FC 64 |
15 |
5.1 |
34% |
$70 |
$10.15 |
$1,015.19 |
$996.94 |
| 11th Jun |
UFC 275 |
50 |
24.7 |
49% |
$70 |
$9.97 |
$996.94 |
$1,172.93 |
| 17th Jun |
PFL 2022 #4 |
40 |
-32.8 |
-82% |
$70 |
$11.73 |
$1,172.93 |
$718.47 |
| 18th Jun |
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Emmett |
65 |
9.9 |
15% |
$70 |
$7.18 |
$718.47 |
$719.89 |
| 24th Jun |
Bellator 282 |
70 |
38.9 |
56% |
$70 |
$7.20 |
$719.89 |
$930.06 |
| 24th Jun |
PFL 2022 #5 |
50 |
-36.1 |
-72% |
$70 |
$9.30 |
$930.06 |
$524.49 |
| 25th Jun |
Cage Warriors 140 |
25 |
-4.7 |
-19% |
$70 |
$5.24 |
$524.49 |
$429.58 |
| 25th Jun |
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot |
60 |
24.9 |
42% |
$70 |
$4.30 |
$429.58 |
$466.65 |
| 26th Jun |
Fury FC 65 |
5 |
-5.0 |
-100% |
$70 |
$4.67 |
$466.65 |
$373.32 |
| 1st Jul |
PFL 2022 #6 |
45 |
14.1 |
31% |
$70 |
$3.73 |
$373.32 |
$356.13 |
| 2nd Jul |
UFC 276 |
55 |
10.3 |
19% |
$70 |
$3.56 |
$356.13 |
$322.93 |
| 8th Jul |
Fury FC 66 |
5 |
-5.0 |
-100% |
$70 |
$3.23 |
$322.93 |
$236.79 |
| 9th Jul |
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Fiziev |
55 |
0.0 |
0% |
$70 |
$2.37 |
$236.79 |
$166.90 |
| 20th Jul |
Invicta 48 |
15 |
-8.5 |
-56% |
$70 |
$1.67 |
$166.90 |
$82.78 |
| 22nd Jul |
Bellator 283 |
55 |
-23.5 |
-43% |
$70 |
$0.83 |
$82.78 |
$0.00 |
| Reloaded an additional $1000 |
| 27th Aug |
LFA 140 |
25 |
5.8 |
23% |
$70 |
$10.00 |
$1,000.00 |
$987.80 |
ROI % from starting bank balance: -101.22% (including fees)
*Note - we don't store historical fee amounts, so we assume the fees are the same as the handicapper charges now. |
These are not my picks on Patreon, nerds: Last 20 Wins / Losses (Straight Picks) |
Last 20 Wins
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Date |
Straight Pick |
Opponent |
Odds |
Bet |
Result |
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| 1. |
Aug '22 |
 Braden Pagaoa |
Dillion Cox |
1.21 |
5 |
U Decision (3 rounds) |
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| 2. |
Aug '22 |
Richie Miranda |
Elijah Harris |
1.12 |
5 |
TKO, R2 (4:34) |
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| 3. |
Aug '22 |
Bahatebole Batebolati |
Ryan Leininger |
2.35 |
5 |
Split Decision (3 rounds) |
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| 4. |
Aug '22 |
Carlos Mota |
Rizvan Abuev |
1.48 |
5 |
TKO, R1 (3:14) |
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| 5. |
Jul '22 |
Archie Colgan |
Bryan Nuro |
1.08 |
5 |
TKO, R3 (1:50) |
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| 6. |
Jul '22 |
Gadzhi Rabadanov |
Bobby King |
1.25 |
5 |
U Decision (3 rounds) |
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| 7. |
Jul '22 |
Dalton Rosta |
Romero Cotton |
1.36 |
5 |
TKO, R3 (0:38) |
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| 8. |
Jul '22 |
Usman Nurmagomedov |
Chris Gonzalez |
1.12 |
5 |
Sub, R1 (2:54) |
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| 9. |
Jul '22 |
Jason Jackson |
Douglas Lima |
1.50 |
5 |
U Decision (5 rounds) |
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| 10. |
Jul '22 |
Taneisha Tennant |
Olga Rubin |
1.31 |
5 |
Split Decision (5 rounds) |
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| 11. |
Jul '22 |
Rafael Fiziev |
Rafael dos Anjos |
1.51 |
5 |
TKO, R5 (0:18) |
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| 12. |
Jul '22 |
Caio Borralho |
Armen Petrosyan |
1.41 |
5 |
U Decision (3 rounds) |
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| 13. |
Jul '22 |
Said Nurmagomedov |
Douglas Silva de Andrade |
1.22 |
5 |
U Decision (3 rounds) |
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| 14. |
Jul '22 |
Chase Sherman |
Jared Vanderaa |
2.69 |
5 |
TKO, R3 (3:10) |
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| 15. |
Jul '22 |
Jamie Mullarkey |
Michael Johnson |
1.45 |
5 |
Split Decision (3 rounds) |
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| 16. |
Jul '22 |
David Onama |
Garrett Armfield |
1.12 |
5 |
Sub, R2 (3:13) |
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| 17. |
Jul '22 |
Kennedy Nzechukwu |
Karl Roberson |
1.61 |
5 |
TKO, R3 (2:19) |
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| 18. |
Jul '22 |
Julija Stoliarenko |
Jessica-Rose Clark |
2.36 |
5 |
Sub, R1 (0:42) |
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| 19. |
Jul '22 |
Dricus Du Plessis |
Brad Tavares |
1.66 |
5 |
U Decision (3 rounds) |
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| 20. |
Jul '22 |
Maycee Barber |
Jessica Eye |
1.29 |
5 |
U Decision (3 rounds) |
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Last 20 Losses
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Date |
Straight Pick |
Opponent |
Odds |
Bet |
Result |
Hedge? |
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| 1. |
Aug '22 |
Leivon Lewis |
Ray Waters |
5.00 |
5 |
U Decision (3 rounds) |
No |
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| 2. |
Jul '22 |
Mark Coates |
Jaylon Bates |
7.00 |
5 |
Split Decision (3 rounds) |
No |
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| 3. |
Jul '22 |
Kevin Boehm |
Akhmed Magomedov |
5.25 |
5 |
Sub, R1 (1:16) |
No |
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| 4. |
Jul '22 |
Luis Iniguez |
Roman Faraldo |
8.00 |
5 |
TKO, R1 (3:42) |
No |
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| 5. |
Jul '22 |
Vanessa Porto |
Veta Arteaga |
1.40 |
5 |
Sub, R2 (3:47) |
No |
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| 6. |
Jul '22 |
Davion Franklin |
Marcelo Golm |
1.44 |
5 |
Sub, R3 (4:36) |
No |
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| 7. |
Jul '22 |
Sidney Outlaw |
Tofiq Musayev |
2.15 |
5 |
TKO, R1 (0:27) |
No |
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| 8. |
Jul '22 |
Morgan Frier |
Amber Leibrock |
2.92 |
5 |
Sub, R1 (3:9) |
No |
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| 9. |
Jul '22 |
Liana Pirosin |
Kristina Williams |
2.40 |
5 |
Sub, R1 (3:16) |
No |
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| 10. |
Jul '22 |
Ricky Turcios |
Aiemann Zahabi |
1.51 |
5 |
U Decision (3 rounds) |
No |
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| 11. |
Jul '22 |
Cortney Casey |
Antonina Shevchenko |
2.44 |
5 |
Split Decision (3 rounds) |
No |
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| 12. |
Jul '22 |
Tresean Gore |
Cody Brundage |
1.69 |
5 |
TKO, R1 (3:50) |
No |
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| 13. |
Jul '22 |
Ronnie Lawrence |
Saidyokub Kakhramonov |
1.91 |
5 |
U Decision (3 rounds) |
No |
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| 14. |
Jul '22 |
Albert Gonzales |
Jeff Creighton |
2.05 |
5 |
Sub, R2 (2:58) |
No |
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| 15. |
Jul '22 |
Gabriel Green |
Ian Garry |
2.63 |
5 |
U Decision (3 rounds) |
No |
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| 16. |
Jul '22 |
Brad Riddell |
Jalin Turner |
2.21 |
5 |
Sub, R1 (0:45) |
No |
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| 17. |
Jul '22 |
Robbie Lawler |
Bryan Barberena |
2.01 |
5 |
TKO, R2 (4:47) |
No |
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| 18. |
Jul '22 |
Vanessa Melo |
Helena Kolesnyk |
2.38 |
5 |
U Decision (3 rounds) |
No |
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| 19. |
Jun '22 |
Jonathan Eiland |
Casey Jones |
2.30 |
5 |
Split Decision (3 rounds) |
No |
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| 20. |
Jun '22 |
Arman Tsarukyan |
Mateusz Gamrot |
1.41 |
5 |
U Decision (5 rounds) |
No |
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* Hedge indicates that this handicapper also had a WINNING bet on the opponent. For example, they may have bet A to win straight up but with a hedge on the other fighter winning by decision. |
These are not my picks on Patreon, nerds: Progress Chart |
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